Economic Growth To Remain Modest In Cuba, Despite New Constitution

Cuba’s long-term economic outlook will remain relatively weak, despite a new constitution aimed at facilitating economic reforms. In particular, political reforms which entrench the Partido Comunista de Cuba (PCC) in power will be a headwind to growth in the years ahead. We maintain our 2018 real GDP growth forecast at 1.1%, down from an estimated 1.8% in 2017. In 2019, growth will accelerate modestly to 1.3% as agricultural production recovers and economic reforms bear some fruit.

Source: Fitch