• Russia, Ukraine, the United Nations, and Turkey signed the deal on Friday, July 22, 2022, to reopen three Ukrainian Black Sea ports for grain exports. The deal is valid for 120 days and targets monthly exports of 5 million tonnes of grains.
• Ukraine pressed ahead on Sunday, July 24, 2022, with efforts to restart grain exports from its Black Sea ports under the new deal but warned that deliveries would suffer if a Russian missile strike on Odesa was a sign of more to come.
• Wheat futures on the Chicago Board of Trade rose nearly 4% to $7.86 a bushel on Monday, July 25, 2022, regaining much of the ground lost on July 22, 2022, as prices fell nearly 6% after the pact was announced. Moreover, Chicago corn futures rose 2% to $5.75-3/4 a bushel while soybeans were 0.9% up at $13.28 a bushel. This came as a missile strike on the Ukrainian port of Odesa over the weekend raised doubts about whether it will be possible to implement last week's agreement to open a corridor for grain exports from the war-torn country.
• The Kremlin said on Monday, July 25, 2022, that the missile strike would not affect the export of grain. However, along with the uncertainty about how long it will take to clear the mines, ship owners are skeptic of sailing to Ukraine, regardless of the freight rate as they think their ship will be hit by missiles.
• The decline in shipments from one of the world's biggest grain exporters has helped to fuel food inflation across the globe and U.N. agencies have warned it could lead to starvation and mass migration on an unprecedented scale if exportation is not resumed.

(Source: Investing.com)

• Several private investors have submitted proposals for renewable energy projects in Jamaica for government consideration. Among them is an integrated solar and hydro energy project, which was announced by Prime Minister, the Most Hon. Andrew Holness.
• Minister without Portfolio in the Ministry of Economic Growth and Job Creation, Senator the Hon. Matthew Samuda, speaking during the inaugural digital staging of the CANCarib Climate Smart Opportunities Summit (CCOS), indicated that there are sufficient funding proposals to enable Jamaica to achieve the power-generation target and that an announcement on the proposals could be made within the next 60 days.
• The projects are expected to assist in realizing the Government’s goal of increasing the ratio of energy generated from renewable options for the national power grid to 50% by 2030.
• It would also contribute to a 60% reduction in Jamaica’s carbon dioxide emissions, also being targeted for 2030, in keeping with the country’s Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) under the Paris Agreement.

(Source: JIS News)

• The Jamaica Stock Exchange (JSE) will start prepping the market for short-selling stocks by hosting a workshop on the topic on September 22, 2022.
• Global markets have offered shorting for a long time. The JSE now wants to introduce shorting to the local market, but highlights the importance of additional market education and training as the market evolves.
• Short selling is an advanced investment strategy that speculates on the decline in a stock price. Although it is not the typical way to make money on the stock market, investors can learn the reverse strategy to sell first, then buy to close the trade, which opens their investments to a whole different side of the market to bank higher profits.
• The workshop will provide content on: strategy, techniques, tools, and tips to enter a short sell as well as use the market’s volatility, and normal price movements to maximize profits.

(Source: JSE)

• The Guyanese economy will grow 46.0% in 2022, from 19.1% in 2021, driven by expanding oil production that will support greater profits and government revenue receipts.
• In addition to a stronger oil sector, the non-oil economy will continue to recover this year, following the impacts of the pandemic. The government is utilising oil revenues by dispersing them throughout the wider economy, supporting development in the gold mining and agriculture sectors, and enhancing infrastructure development.
• That said, Guyana will be the world’s fastest-growing economy in 2022, and fast rising oil production will retain the country’s status as a regional outperformer in the coming years. Growth is expected to remain strong in 2023 at 8.0%, and average 8.2% from 2024-2031, as exploration in offshore blocks continues and additional oil projects come online, maintaining Guyana’s position as a regional outperformer in the coming years.

(Source: Fitch Solutions)

• The International Monetary Fund cut its global growth outlook for this year and next, warning that the world economy may soon be on the cusp of an outright recession. Global economic expansion will likely slow to 3.2% this year, less than the 3.6% forecast by the fund in April and the 4.4% seen in January.
• The series of interest-rate increases that central banks have unleashed to contain inflation “is expected to bite” in 2023, with global output growth set to slow to 2.9%.  While the crisis lender is still forecasting positive growth, that will do little to quell rising concern of receding expansion or even outright recession in major economies as accelerating price increases eat away at incomes, savings and profits.
• Consumer prices have consistently climbed more quickly than expected, with the fund seeing inflation accelerating even further this year as higher food and energy costs couple with lingering supply-and-demand imbalances. It now projects the global consumer-price gauge to increase 8.3% this year (April’s estimate: 7.4%), which would be the biggest jump since 1996.
• Downside risks include a worsening of the war in Ukraine, escalation of sanctions on Russia, a sharper-than-anticipated slowdown in China, renewed Covid-19 flare-ups and an inflation wave that’s forcing central banks to raise interest rates.

(Source: Bloomberg)

• European Union countries approved a weakened emergency plan to curb their gas demand on Tuesday, after striking compromise deals to limit the cuts for some countries, as they brace for further Russian reductions in supply.
• Europe will face an increased gas squeeze from Wednesday, when Russian's Gazprom plans to cut flows through the Nord Stream 1 pipeline to Germany to a fifth of capacity
• With a dozen EU countries already facing lower Russian supplies, Brussels is urging member states to save gas and store it for winter for fear Russia will completely cut off flows in retaliation for Western sanctions over its war with Ukraine.
• Energy ministers approved a proposal for all EU countries to voluntarily cut gas use by 15% from August to March.
• The cuts could be made binding in a supply emergency, provided a majority of EU countries agree to this. But countries agreed to exempt numerous countries and industries from the binding 15% cut, after some governments opposed the EU's original proposal to apply it to every country.

(Source: Reuters)

• The import duty on electric vehicles has been reduced from 30% to 10%, and purchasers of those vehicles will not have to pay licence fees over the next five years. 
• The House of Representatives approved the Customs Tariff (Revision) (Amendment) (No. 2), Resolution, 2022, and the Road Traffic (Licence Duties) Order, 2022, and Resolution on Tuesday (July 19) to give effect to the measures.
• Minister of Finance and the Public Service, Dr. the Hon. Nigel Clarke, advised that the lower duty rates and the elimination of the licence fee requirement apply to electric vehicles that are three years old or less at the time of importation.
• It was noted that duties on motor vehicles are a major source of government revenue, with earnings of about $30Bn to $40Bn, and so the reduction of duties for electric vehicles had to be considered very carefully, seeing the government could not afford to completely cannibalize all of that revenue.
• These measures support the country’s transition from a high dependence on petroleum for motor vehicles by making it more affordable for Jamaicans to acquire electric vehicles. This will also support the government’s aim to achieve 60% reduction in Jamaica’s carbon dioxide emissions by 2030.

(Source: JIS News)

• Panama’s continuing national protest movement is expected to pose substantial risks to social instability as well as growth in the coming months. Following headline inflation increasing to 5.2% y-o-y in June—the highest since October 2012, with price increases for cooking oil and gasoline reaching 12.7% and 64.7%, respectively, protests broke out sporadically in early July.
• Considering this along with undelivered promises of anti-corruption reforms, the country is expected to see an increased risk of public unrest in the months ahead. Consequently, the sustained protest movement will dampen economic activity for at least several weeks, with future risks of protest remaining high. 
• In response to the public outcry, President Cortizo will increase subsidies for gasoline and basic goods like bread and cooking oil as well as higher social spending for low-income households. As a result, this will delay the country’s goal of achieving its fiscal deficit target of 4.0% in 2022 as laid out in its Fiscal Social Responsibility Law.
• Following the social instability, Fitch Solutions revised its Short and Long-Term Political Risk Indices. In the Short-Term Political Risk Index (STPRI), the ‘social stability’ sub-component was slightly revised down from 42.5 to 40.0, having been already lowered in mid-May in anticipation of further protests, bringing the headline STPRI score to 62.9 from 63.5.
• For the Long-Term Political Risk Index (LTPRI), the ‘characteristics of society’ and sub-components were lowered from 67.8 to 67.5 to account for high levels of poverty, driven primarily by a labour force with 48.3% of workers in the informal sector, where pay is low, benefits are not guaranteed and are not protected by certain labour rights and protections.

(Source: Fitch Solutions)

• Turkish officials say a deal on a U.N. plan to unblock the exports of Ukrainian grain amid the war and to allow Russia to export grain and fertilizers will be signed on Friday, July 22, 2022, in Istanbul.
• This plan would enable Ukraine to export millions of tons of grain that have been stuck in its Black Sea ports — a move that could ease a global food crisis that has sent wheat and other grain prices soaring. At least 22Mn tons of grain are stuck there due to the war.
• Last week, the sides met in Istanbul, reaching a tentative agreement on the plan. It foresees joint controls of ships as they leave and arrive at Black Sea ports, and a mechanism to ensure the safety of the transfer routes, Turkish officials said. A coordination center for the shipping of exports would be established in Istanbul and would include U.N., Turkish, Russian, and Ukrainian officials.

(Source: AP News)

• As the World Health Organization’s emergency committee convened on July 21, 2022, to consider for the second time within weeks whether to declare monkeypox a global crisis, some scientists said the striking differences between the outbreaks in Africa and in developed countries will complicate any coordinated response.
• There are now more than 15,000 monkeypox cases worldwide. While the United States, Britain, Canada, and other countries have bought millions of vaccines, none have gone to Africa, where a more severe version of monkeypox has already killed more than 70 people. Rich countries haven’t yet reported any monkeypox deaths.
• This week, U.S. officials said more than 100,000 monkeypox vaccine doses were being sent to states in the next few days, with several million more on order for the months ahead. The U.S. has reported more than 2,000 cases so far, with hundreds more added every day.
• Some U.S. public health experts have begun to wonder if the outbreak is becoming widespread enough that monkeypox will become a new sexually transmitted disease. Declaring monkeypox to be a global emergency could also inadvertently worsen the rush for vaccines, despite the mildness of the disease being seen in most countries.

(Source: AP News)