• It is forecasted that growth in Brazil will slow from 4.6% in 2021 to 0.8% in 2022, weighed down by high inflation and tight monetary policy, political uncertainty and weaker external demand in H2. 
• This forecast is down from 1.0%, as the positive news of an upside growth surprise in Q122 was outweighed by revised forecasts for higher interest rates in Brazil and weaker growth in China. 
• In 2023 it is expected that growth will pick up to 1.5%, as inflation moderates, interest rates are cut, and political uncertainty eases after October 2022’s general election.

(Source: Fitch Solutions)

• Oil plummeted by nearly $12 a barrel on July 5, 2022, the biggest daily drop since March, and the decline spread to other energy sectors amid worries of a global recession. Benchmark Brent crude was down $11.88, or 10.4%, at $101.83 a barrel by 1:53 p.m. EDT. U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude settled at $99.50 a barrel, falling 8.2%, or $8.93 a barrel. 
• Both benchmarks logged their biggest daily percentage decline since March 9 and hit share prices of major oil and gas companies. Prices hit the lowest since late April. 
• "We're getting creamed and the only way you can explain that away is fear of recession," said Robert Yawger, director of energy futures at Mizuho. Oil futures sank along with natural gas, gasoline, and equities which often serve as demand indicators for crude. 
• If a recession does hit and takes a significant bite out of energy demand, more wild swings to the downside could be in store. 
• Meanwhile, safe-haven demand for U.S. Treasuries boosted the dollar by about 1.3%, which in turn weighed on greenback-denominated oil as it becomes more expensive for buyers holding other currencies.

(Source: Reuters)

• Zimbabwe's central bank said it would start selling gold coins this month as a store of value to tame runaway inflation, which has considerably weakened the local currency. The central bank governor John Mangudya said in a statement on July 5^th,2022, that the coins will be available for sale from July 25 in local currency, U.S. dollars, and other foreign currencies at a price based on the prevailing international price of gold and the cost of production. 
• Last week, Zimbabwe more than doubled its policy rate to 200% from 80% and outlined plans to make the U.S. dollar legal tender for the next five years to boost confidence. Soaring inflation in the southern African country has been piling pressure on a population already struggling with shortages and stirring memories of economic chaos years ago under veteran leader Robert Mugabe’s near four-decade rule. 
• Annual inflation, which hit almost 192% in June, cast a shadow over President Emmerson Mnangagwa’s bid to revitalize the economy. Zimbabwe abandoned its inflation-ravaged dollar in 2009, opting instead to use foreign currencies, mostly the U.S. dollar. The government reintroduced the local currency in 2019, but it has rapidly lost value again.

(Source: Reuters )

• The Jamaica Customs Act, which is to be repealed and replaced, will provide a modern framework that further enhances the ease of doing business. The Act, which is currently before a Joint Select Committee of Parliament, will improve customs practices and procedures to facilitate trade effectively and efficiently. 
• Minister of Industry, Investment and Commerce, Senator the Hon. Aubyn Hill said that the modernization is expected to bring significant benefits to the trading community by improving customs clearance and revenue collection, simplifying procedures for businesses, and providing more efficient service delivery to the general public. 
• “With these changes, Jamaica will be in a better position to offer diversified export products within new markets, creating greater opportunities for stakeholders within the industry through the local business community,” he said. 
• While the Ministry is committed to ensuring that Jamaica takes advantage of growing near-shore opportunities, especially by expanding Special Economic Zones (SEZs), it has to be supported by the right governance and legislative frameworks. This is expected to increase access to wide international markets through accredited testing, inspection and certification services and reduced trade costs for exporters and manufacturers.
• In addition to improving legislation, the ministry is also updating the Automated System for Customs Data (ASYCUDA), a web based portal that supports paperless declaration processing through the use of electronic documents. The update will allow it to function in an even more customer-friendly manner and with ease and efficiency.

(Source: JIS News)

• Proven Investment Limited (Proven) reported an 8.7% increase in net profit attributable to shareholders to US$12.54Mn for the 12 months ended March 31, 2022. 
• Net Operating Revenue rose 58.1% to US$36.79Mn on the back of a 67.3% increase in net interest income driven by improvement in its core pillar- the Banking and Wealth Management Division. It was also influenced by the gross revenue of US$53.69Mn recorded from its newly acquired manufacturing arm through Roberts Manufacturing Company Limited (RMCL) in Barbados. The addition of the manufacturing arm provides diversification in the company’s portfolio which was mainly concentrated in financial services. 
• In spite of the increase in revenues, operating profit fell by 44.6% due to the incurrence of direct expenses amounting to US$37.90Mn from its manufacturing arm, and a 105.1% surge in operating expenses to $42.60Mn on the back of increases in staff costs and other expenses. This led to a decline in the operating profit margin from 26.5% to 9.3%. 
• Following the decline in operating profit, the company was still able to record higher net profit because of 47.5% rise in share of profits from associates. 
• In addition to the acquisition of RMCL (51%) in the last financial year, PROVEN also acquired Fidelity Bank (Cayman) Limited (100%), and Heritage Education Funds (100%) while completing new and existing real estate projects. It is expected that the company will create value from these recent acquisitions which should improve the company’s bottom line going forward. This positive impact will be tempered by the adverse impact of sustained inflationary pressures and the high-interest rate environment on the financial sector. 
• PROVEN’s stock price has increased by 13.1% since the start of the calendar year. The stock closed Tuesday’s trading session at $ 2376 and currently trades at a P/E of 14.4x which is below the USD Stock Market Average of 16.5x.

(Sources: JSE & NCBCM Research)

• T&T's hydrocarbons sector will remain a central driver of growth in the coming years. In 2008, the sector accounted for half of GDP, but it fell into a broad decline in 2011 as its natural gas and crude oil fields began to mature, which was compounded by the collapse of oil prices in 2015. 
• However, rebounding energy prices from H2 2020 will benefit the gas sector as a whole, supporting production and investor interest in T&T's untapped reserves over the near term. Notably, a challenging operating environment will most likely keep investment in the sector relatively subdued, undermining its long-term outlook. 
• Increased demand for natural gas in the coming years will divert investment flows meant for oil projects to natural gas projects as the global energy market looks to shift away from high-carbon-emitting energy sources. 
• Given T&T's continuing dependence on its hydrocarbons sector, fluctuating energy prices will present persistent risks to growth. However, over the coming quarters, Fitch Solutions expects rebounding energy prices to ease risks to T&T's external accounts. Stronger external accounts will allow imports to rise, which would allow pent-up demand for capital goods to rise, boosting investment. A sustained increase in prices would also make upstream exploration and development more attractive to international oil companies.

(Source: Fitch Solutions)

• Barbados’ debt position is back where it was prior to the painful debt structuring in 2018 but there is a glimmer of hope since the Government is in a better position to service its debt this time around. This assessment from Barbadian economist Carlos Forte indicated that while the current debt is manageable, the position in which Government now finds itself means that no further borrowing can take place, or it will put future generations in peril. 
• Forte’s remarks came on the heels of concerns raised by other economists about Barbados’ ability to honour its close to $1Bn debt to the IMF over the next five years, now that the programme has come to an end. Over the course of the four-year IMF-backed Barbados Economic Recovery and Transformation (BERT) programme, the Government borrowed some $870Mn, which must be paid back with interest by 2029. 
• Further, since 2020 Barbados has borrowed more than US$1.25Bn from multilateral lending institutions such as the IMF, World Bank, Caribbean Development Bank, and Inter-American Development Bank. That’s the equivalent of BD$2.5Bn. 
• Though the Prime Minister asserted that the debt was manageable, Forte reasoned that BD$2.5Bn dollars of borrowed money in three years is a staggering sum for a small economy like Barbados. The implication is that Barbados is in the early stages of yet another debt trap, one that is more dangerous given the huge foreign debt component.

(Source: Barbados Today)

• Japan's services sector activity expanded at the fastest pace in over eight years in June as the easing of coronavirus curbs boosted sentiment among businesses such as those in tourism. 
• The pick-up in activity is welcome news for a government betting on domestic demand to put the world's third-largest economy firmly on a recovery track and help overcome production pressures on the country's manufacturing industry. 
• The final au Jibun Bank Japan Services purchasing managers' index (PMI) rose to a seasonally adjusted 54.0, marking the fastest pace of expansion since October 2013. That was stronger than May's final 52.6 growth, though it remained below a 54.2 flash reading for June released last month. 
• Greater demand for services and rising fuel and raw material prices, however, caused firms' average input prices to increase at a record pace. This pushed firms to raise prices charged for services at the quickest rate since October 2019," said Usamah Bhatti, economist at S&P Global Market Intelligence, which compiles the survey. 
• A resurgence in COVID-19 cases overseas, especially in Japan's major trading partner China, hindered international sales, according to the survey.

(Source: Reuters)

• Consumer inflation expectations surged in Canada, hitting fresh highs in the short-term and up "significantly" over the long-term, according to a survey conducted by the Bank of Canada, bolstering calls for a very rare 75-basis point rate increase. 
• In a separate survey, the bank found businesses expect high inflation for longer, with firms eyeing survey-record wage increases over the next 12 months and many planning to pass rising costs onto customers. The surveys both reinforce calls for a 75-bps rate increase at the Bank of Canada's next decision on July 13. This would be the largest hike since August 1998, when the bank lifted rates by 100 bps to defend the currency. 
• Canada's inflation rate hit a near 40-year high at 7.7% in May and prices are set to go higher before easing later this year. The bank has signaled it is willing to act aggressively to keep price increases from becoming entrenched. What central banks dread is a situation in which price increases become self-fulfilling -- expectations for higher prices cause people to raise wage demands and accelerate purchases, driving further price increases. 
• In its Business Outlook Survey, the bank found firms see inflation above 3% on average over the next two years, with nearly a quarter expecting price increases "well above" the 2% target for three years or more. Firms also plan to raise wages to attract and retain workers, the bank said, with businesses now expecting wage increases of 5.8% on average over the next 12 months, up from 5.2% in the previous survey.

(Source: Reuters)

• The Jamaican economy grew by 6.4% during the first quarter of 2022 when compared to the first quarter of 2021. A respective 8.9% and 0.4% growth in the Services and Goods Producing Industries were the primary drivers of this performance. 
• The easing of COVID-19 containment measures, including the withdrawal of the Disaster Risk Management Order during the period, positively impacted economic activity which supported the expansion in output. 
• All industries within the Services Industries grew: Hotels & Restaurants (107.1%), Wholesale & Retail Trade; Repairs; Installation of Machinery & Equipment (8.8%), Transport, Storage & Communication (8.8%), Other Services (12.4%), Finance & Insurance Services (0.7%), Real Estate, Renting & Business Activities (1.1%), Producers of Government Services (0.4%) and Electricity & Water Supply (1.4%). 
• The performance of the Hotels & Restaurants industry was due to growth in hotels & other short-stay accommodations and restaurants, bars & canteens. The 230.1% increase in foreign national arrivals during the period positively impacted this industry. This sector could see a further improvement in its performance as the Jamaica Tourist Board (JTB) is projecting that the country will welcome approximately 800,000 visitors for the 2022 summer period with destination earnings exceeding US$1.1Bn. 
• Within the Goods Producing Industries, higher output levels were recorded for Agriculture, Forestry & Fishing (8.2%), Manufacturing (4.0%) and Construction (3.5%). However, the Mining & Quarrying industry declined by 60.0%. The Agriculture, Forestry & Fishing industries benefitted from favourable weather conditions which influenced greater output.
• The IMF currently expects the economy to grow by 2.5% this calendar year. This will continue to be supported by a recovery in the tourism sector which is expected to see its strongest summer ever, greater consumer demand for other services, and higher private consumption. However, the high inflation and interest rate environment poses downside risks to this forecast. 

(Source: STATIN & NCBCM Research)