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Urgent Oil Drilling Mission To Help Cushion Economic Blow From Escalating Russia-Ukraine Conflict Published: 24 February 2022

  • A team of oil and gas specialists have been summoned from the Republic of Trinidad and Tobago to assist Barbados with an urgent oil drilling mission, as the country looks long-term at cushioning any likely economic blow from the escalating conflict between Russia and Ukraine. 
  • Minister of Energy, Small Business and Entrepreneurship Kerrie Symmonds urged citizens to brace for the possible impact, revealing that the most recent developments have made feared gas price increases “almost inevitable”. 
  • Symmonds disclosed that a supply analysis conducted by the Barbados National Oil Company (BNOC) revealed that only 30% of the gas consumed here is locally produced with the remaining 70% imported. The minister urged citizens to conserve energy as the country continues to monitor the events happening in Ukraine and Russia. 
  • The Russia-Ukraine conflict is likely to lead to a global economic blowout. Russia is the second-largest oil exporter, and its decision to invade Ukraine will have substantial implications on oil prices and the global economy.

 (Source: Barbados Today)

Emerging markets drive global debt to record $303 trillion - IIF Published: 24 February 2022

  • The Institute of International Finance said on Wednesday that the Emerging market borrowing led by China inflated the global debt mountain to a record $303.0Tn in 2021, although the global debt-to-GDP ratio improved as developed economies rebounded. The $10.0Tn rise in the global debt pile was down from the $33.0Tn increase in 2020 when COVID-19-related expenditure soared. 
  • But more than 80% of last year's new debt burden came from emerging markets, where total debt is approaching $100.0Tn. That means emerging markets have started in 2022 facing record-high refinancing needs just as the Federal Reserve prepares to raise interest rates after years of record-low borrowing costs. 
  • While the pace of accumulation slowed in 2021, EM government debt levels remain elevated. This slowdown is in line with the moderation in government budget deficits seen over the past year. The IIF authors noted that since the onset of the pandemic, some EM governments seem more reliant on off-budget borrowing, pointing to rising non-financial corporate debt levels in China, Russia and Saudi Arabia. 
  • The global debt-to-GDP ratio fell to 351% in 2021 from an all-time high of more than 360% in 2020, although last year's rate is some 28 percentage points above pre-pandemic levels.

(Source: Reuters)

Oil rises as Ukraine issues state of emergency suffer cyber attacks Published: 24 February 2022

  • Oil prices reversed earlier losses on Wednesday, rising on reports that Ukraine's government, foreign ministry and state security service were affected by a cyberattack. 
  • Brent crude was up $1.48, or 1.5%, to $98.32 a barrel at 10:38 a.m. EDT (1538 GMT), after hitting $99.50 on Tuesday, the highest since September 2014. U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude futures rose $1.58, or 1.7%, to $93.47 a barrel, after reaching $96 on Tuesday. 
  • U.S. stocks slipped on Wednesday after giving up all of the opening gains as reports of cyberattacks on several Ukrainian state websites added to fears about escalating tensions with Russia. Ukraine declared a state of emergency on Wednesday and told its citizens in Russia to flee, while Moscow began evacuating its Kyiv embassy in the latest ominous signs for Ukrainians who fear an all-out Russian military onslaught. 
  • Prices also rose on Tuesday on fears that sanctions imposed by Western nations on Russia, after it sent troops into two breakaway regions in eastern Ukraine, could hit energy supplies. Sanctions imposed by the United States, the European Union, Britain, Australia, Canada and Japan were focused on Russian banks and elites, while Germany halted certification of a gas pipeline from Russia. 
  • But the United States made it clear that sanctions agreed and those which may be imposed will not target oil and gas flows. However, analysts expect oil prices to continue seeing support from the Russia-Ukraine crisis, with some Western countries promising to impose more sanctions if Russia launches a full invasion.

(Source: Reuters)

MASSY’s Q1 Results Show Improvement Published: 23 February 2022

  • Massy Holdings Limited reported a net profit attributable to owners of the parent company from continuing operations of TTD177.21Mn for its first quarter ending December 31, 2021, which represents an 8.5% or TTD13.84Mn increase relative to the prior period. 
  • Revenues grew by 8.4% as the Group’s topline benefited from growth in its three main investment portfolios (Integrated Retail, Gas Products, and Motors and Machines). 
  • Management attributed this growth to the rebound in some of the territories that it operates in, particularly, Guyana, and noted that others are rebounding strongly from pandemic-induced recessions. 
  • After its first quarter, the company cross-listed on the Jamaica Stock Exchange and its shareholders agreed to a 20-for-1 stock split. The share split has a target date of March 11, 2022, and is intended to enhance retail trading of Massy’s shares in Jamaica as well as in Trinidad and Tobago. 
  • Massy’s stock price has decreased by 18.2% since its enlistment on the Jamaica Stock Exchange on January 27, 2022. The stock closed Tuesday’s trading session at $1996.48 and currently trades at a P/E of 13.5x earnings which is below the Main Market Conglomerate Sector Average of 15.7x.

(Source: Company Financials and NCBCM Research)

Guyana Ranked 10th Most Competitive Oil & Gas Jurisdiction In The World Published: 23 February 2022

  • Among the oil and gas jurisdictions in the world, Guyana has performed well in its management of the industry and it is ranked 10th ahead of Brazil and Argentina for competitiveness in exploration and production by internationally respected business intelligence firm, IHS Markit. 
  • Guyana continues to send a positive message to companies around the world that the country has a trustworthy investment climate that will bring attractive investment and partners into other sectors. Notably, IHS Markit indicated that the main challenge for Guyana is managing the flow of money to the country to prevent overheating and distortions of the economy. 
  • However, Guyana’s Vice President Dr. Bharrat Jagdeo has said that while overheating is a fair concern, the Government is keeping careful watch. This caution will be especially pertinent as Guyana’s revenues balloon. With current production, Guyana is already expecting almost US$1Bn this year. 
  • Guyana continues to position itself as a key producer in the oil and gas industry, with the capacity to cushion some of the supply shortfalls on the global market. As such the industry will continue to contribute to the country's revenue, investment opportunities, and economic growth.

 (Source: Caribbean News Global)

 

Latin America Reform Tracker: Outlook Remains Unfavourable Despite Modest Upwards Revisions Published: 23 February 2022

  • Fitch Solutions maintains the view that Latin American governments will largely be unable to enact market-friendly policy reforms in the coming quarters, especially as Brazil and Colombia hold presidential and legislative elections in 2022 and leftist, populist presidents in Mexico and Peru likely attempt to weaken previous reforms. 
  • Notably, reform efforts throughout Latin America were significantly disrupted due to a series of substantial public protests in Chile, Colombia, and Ecuador in Q4 2019, followed by the economic and public health shock of the COVID-19 pandemic. 
  • However, while most of the region’s governments shifted to expansionary fiscal policies to mitigate the economic strains from the pandemic by supporting household incomes, rising food and fuel prices have prompted governments to increase subsidies or intervene in the market in other ways. This has further undermined the post-pandemic return to fiscal consolidation and underscored the less favourable outlook for reform. 
  • The region’s average Q1 2022 score of 3.6 out of 10 in Fitch’s Reform Tracker is higher than last quarter’s score of 3.4, but remains below the score of 4.1 in Q1 2021, as public opposition will continue to impede large-scale reforms preferred by investors. Fitch’s reform tracker measures reform momentum on a scale from 0 to 10. 
  • While the economy of the region is expected to improve in 2022, political and economic issues are expected to hinder the enactment of reforms, thereby complicating the recovery process. These hindrances include a series of protests, upcoming elections and the effect of the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic. 

 (Source: Fitch Solutions)

Oil Hits Highest Since 2014 On Russia-Ukraine Escalation Published: 23 February 2022

  • Oil rose to its highest since 2014 on Tuesday after Moscow ordered troops into two breakaway regions in eastern Ukraine, tempered by a declaration from Germany's Chancellor that the nation would not certify the $11.0Bn Nord Stream 2 pipeline. The Nord Stream 2 is an undersea pipeline, meant to ferry natural gas directly from Russia to northern Germany, but in light of Russia’s incursion into Ukraine, those plans have been shelved. 
  • The West took more measures to try to discourage Russia from going on the offensive in Ukraine, with Germany putting the certification of the Nord Stream 2 gas pipeline from Russia on ice, while the United States and European Union discussed potential sanctions. 
  • Brent crude, the global benchmark, was up $1.59, or 1.7%, at $96.98 by 1:08 p.m. EDT (1808 GMT), having earlier reached its highest since September 2014 at $99.50. U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude jumped by $1.93, or 2.1%, from Friday to $93, with the market having been closed on Monday for a public holiday. WTI also touched a seven-year high on Tuesday as it peaked at $96. 
  • The Ukraine crisis has added further support to an oil market that has surged on tight supplies as demand recovers from the COVID-19 pandemic. The Organisation of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and allies, together known as OPEC+, have resisted calls to boost supply more rapidly. Talks are ongoing on renewing Iran's nuclear agreement with world powers, which could eventually boost Iran's oil exports by more than 1 million barrels per day.

(Source: Reuters)

U.S. Consumer Confidence Slips Published: 23 February 2022

  • U.S. consumer confidence fell to a five-month low in February, with fewer consumers planning to purchase homes, automobiles and go on vacation over the next six months amid concerns about the short-term economic outlook. 
  • The survey from the Conference Board on Tuesday also showed consumers' inflation expectations rising after moderating for two straight months. But with the labour market rapidly churning out jobs and COVID-19 cases subsiding, the second straight monthly decline in confidence and drop in buying intentions likely do not signal a major slowdown in consumer spending. 
  • Retail sales surged in January even as confidence ebbed. Consumers accumulated more than $2.0Tn in excess savings during the pandemic, which should help to underpin spending. 
  • The Conference Board said its consumer confidence index dipped to a reading of 110.5 this month, from 111.1 in January. This is the lowest since last September 2021 and the index remains above its pandemic lows. 
  • The survey's measure of current conditions improved, likely because of declining coronavirus infections that were driven by the Omicron variant. Its gauge of expectations for growth in the short term fell to a five-month low, suggesting a cooling in growth in the first half of the year. But the slowdown will probably be modest, with business activity regaining speed in February as the drag from the Omicron surge diminishes.

(Source: Reuters)

DBJ to Provide $9.5Bn In Loans To MSMEs & Divest Government-Owned Assets Published: 22 February 2022

  • The Development Bank of Jamaica (DBJ) is anticipating the provision of $9.5Bn in loans to Micro, Small and Medium-sized Enterprises (MSME) during the new financial year. 
  • This is in addition to $6.24Bn in credit guarantees, US$24.4Mn in equity financing, and capacity-building support to 440 entities. 
  • As contained in the Public Bodies Estimates of Revenue and Expenditure for the year ending March 2023, the support from the DBJ is aimed at addressing the gaps in the MSME ecosystem, which hamper growth in the industry, by improving the entities’ access to business development and financing. 
  • Following the Wigton and TJH IPOs in recent years, the DBJ will also continue to assist in the divestment of government-owned assets, by facilitating investment through public-private partnerships and privatisations. 
  • In keeping with this imperative, the agency intends to bring closure to transactions including Jamaica Mortgage Bank, Jamaica Railway Corporation, Montpelier, and the Cocoa Industry Board. We could therefore see more opportunities for investors through the privatisation of these companies, as the Government of Jamaica aims to put the ownership of key strategic assets in the hands of Jamaicans.

(Source: JIS & NCBCM Research)

Guyana Projected to Earn US$28Mn From Timber Exports Published: 22 February 2022

  • The sustainable use of Guyana’s forest resources has generated great returns over the years, especially in the area of timber production and exportation, which is projected to remain lucrative this year, with estimated returns of US$28Mn. 
  • As outlined by the country’s 2022 Budget, timber output grew from 344,179 cubic meters in 2020 to 383,189 cubic meters in 2021, reflecting an expansion in construction activity. 
  • Guyana has one of the highest percentages of forest cover in the world and presents immense opportunities to investors, who are interested in sustainably utilising and developing forest resources. Already, persons have capitalised on those opportunities, and this is evidenced by returns from the exportation of timber in 2021, which amounted to US$26.5Mn. 
  • The growth that Guyana has experienced from its forestry sector will present an opportunity for increased export earnings, job creation and economic growth on a whole for the nation.

 (Source: The Tribune)