• Trinidad and Tobago’s economy appears to be slowly on the mend, according to the latest stats released by the International Monetary Fund (IMF). 
• The IMF’s country report for the twin-island republic said in 2022, its real gross domestic product (GDP) expanded by 2.5%, supported by the non-energy sector and partially offset by an unexpectedly weaker performance of its energy sector. 
• Notably, inflation in T&T reached 8.7% at the end of last year, driven by imported energy and food prices, partial liberalization of domestic fuel prices in 2022, and domestic flooding.
• These higher-than-expected energy prices, however, resulted in the overall fiscal balance registering a surplus of 0.3% of GDP in FY2022, for the first time in over a decade, and after a record deficit of 11.7% of GDP in FY2020.
• Looking ahead, the organization stated that recovery is expected to gain broad-based momentum in 2023 with a 3.2% GDP expansion. However, over the medium term, as oil and gas fields mature, potential growth will slow down to 1.5%. The IMF lauded T&T for its prudent management of the energy revenue windfall and underscored the importance to continue rebuilding buffers.
• Inflation is projected to slow down to 4.5% by the end-2023 and will continue declining with international prices, which will result in a narrower current account surplus, averaging 6.7% of GDP. Its international reserve coverage is projected to remain adequate at around 6.5 months of prospective total imports by 2028.
• The risk to the growth outlook is tilted toward the downside. Downside risks stem from potential disruptions to domestic oil and gas production; a sharper-than-expected global slowdown affecting energy markets, and global financial instabilities. On the upside, there is the potential for higher-than-expected energy production and prices, including from a new U.S. license to Trinidad and Tobago to develop a major gas field in Venezuela.

(Source: IMF)

• Deputy Prime Minister Chester Cooper, who is in charge of tourism, investments, and aviation, announced that the government reached an agreement with a Bahamian-English consortium to undertake a $200Mn redevelopment of the Grand Bahama International Airport (GBIA).
• GBIA was damaged by Hurricane Dorian in September 2019. Its subpar state has been a hurdle for the economy of Grand Bahama. Following more than a year of negotiations with the US-based Electra Group, the government abandoned plans to sell and develop the Grand Lucayan resort. Cooper argued that to sell Grand Lucayan, GBIA must be fixed first to host US Customs and Border Protection Preclearance, which never returned after Dorian.
• The consortium will therefore “build, finance, operate, maintain and redevelop” the GBIA. Cooper stated that their mandate is to develop a resilient, efficient, commercially successful world-class airport.
• The project is expected to generate 1200 construction jobs. The UK Export Finance unit will provide financing for the project. The consortium is composed of Bahamas-based Aerodrome and British Manchester Airport Group Ltd and BHM Construction International.
• Investment planning is set to start immediately and the first phase of the project is scheduled for completion by Q1 2025. The second phase will last another three years.
• Once completed, the airport will be operated by Manchester Airport Group and profits generated by GBIA will go to an airport infrastructure fund.
• If confirmed, this will be good news for the Bahamas as it will aid in improving employment and tourists arrivals. However, the plan is still subject to environmental approvals as the airport location is exposed to natural elements, and has been damaged repeatedly by all major hurricanes that hit the Bahamas; so feasibility and environmental studies will be of the essence.

(Source: Oppenheimer)

• The Federal Reserve on Wednesday enacted a quarter percentage point interest rate increase, expressing caution about the recent banking crisis and indicating that hikes are nearing an end. Along with its ninth hike since March 2022, the rate-setting Federal Open Market Committee noted that future increases are not assured and will depend largely on incoming data.
• That wording is a departure from previous statements, which indicated “ongoing increases” would be appropriate to bring down inflation.  While comments Fed Chair Jerome Powell made during a news conference were taken to mean that the central bank may be nearing the end of its rate-hiking cycle, he qualified that the inflation fight isn’t over.
• Powell acknowledged that the events in the banking system were likely to result in tighter credit conditions, and the central bank’s tone has softened. Stocks initially rose after the Fed’s decision but slumped following Powell’s remarks.
• During the news conference, Powell said the FOMC considered a pause in rate hikes in light of the banking crisis but ultimately unanimously approved the decision to raise rates due to intermediate data on inflation and the strength of the labor market.
• The increase takes the benchmark federal funds rate to a target range between 4.75%-5%.

 (Source: CNBC)

• U.S. existing home sales rebounded more than expected in February as lower mortgage rates and the first year-on-year decrease in prices in 11 years pulled buyers back into the market, further evidence that the housing market was stabilizing at low levels. The jump in sales of previously owned homes, which was reported by the National Association of Realtors on Tuesday, was the largest in more than 2-1/2 years and ended 12 straight monthly declines in sales, the longest such stretch since 1999.
• U.S. existing home sales rebounded more than expected in February as lower mortgage rates and the first year-on-year decrease in prices in 11 years pulled buyers back into the market, further evidence that the housing market was stabilizing at low levels. The jump in sales of previously owned homes, which was reported by the National Association of Realtors on Tuesday, was the largest in more than 2-1/2 years and ended 12 straight monthly declines in sales, the longest such stretch since 1999.
• The housing market has been the biggest casualty of the aggressive interest rate hikes delivered by the Federal Reserve in its battle to tame high inflation. The surge in sales added to data on housing starts and homebuilder confidence in suggesting that the housing market was probably finding a floor.
• Economists polled by Reuters had forecast home sales would rebound 5.0% to a rate of 4.20 million units. Home resales, which account for a big chunk of U.S. housing sales, fell 22.6% on a year-on-year basis in February.
• Residential investment has contracted for seven straight quarters, the longest such streak since the collapse of the housing bubble triggered by the 2007-2009 Great Recession.
• Mortgage rates, which in February resumed their upward trend, are falling again in tandem with a sharp decline in U.S. Treasury yields following the recent collapse of two U.S. regional banks that sparked fears of contagion in the banking sector. But the outlook for the housing market remains unclear. Despite financial market instability, the Fed is expected to raise interest rates by another quarter of a percentage point on Wednesday, according to CME Group's FedWatch tool.

(Source: Reuters)

• The State-owned National Water Commission (NWC) is now less of a fiscal risk to the Government, says Prime Minister, the Most Hon. Andrew Holness. He told the House of Representatives, during his 2023/24 Budget Debate presentation on Thursday (March 16), that over the last financial year, the NWC recorded significant achievements at the strategic and operational levels, resulting in a “stronger, more robust utility, able to better carry out its mandate”.
• “NWC’s financial performance has shown a worthy turnaround, moving from a net loss of $2.13Bn in the 2021/22 financial year to a net year-to-date profit of $2.73Bn as of January 2022/23. This performance means that the NWC is now much less of a fiscal risk to the Government,” the Prime Minister said.
• More than $7Bn of capital investment will be made in fiscal year 2023/24 to support NWC projects, now underway, either in construction or procurement. Additionally, 21 other islandwide water supply upgrading and expansion projects are programmed for the upcoming fiscal year, with a projected expenditure of more than $2.5Bn. This will see the NWC’s services being extended to new communities.
• Prime Minister Holness said that in the new fiscal year, the NWC will spend more than $900Mn to ensure more efficient pumping operations while deploying more renewable energy within its operations. Additionally, a public-private partnership project was launched last year, which will see a floating photovoltaic system being built at the Mona Reservoir in St. Andrew. The project will result in an investment of more than US$68Mn, 45MW of Firm Capacity and will save the NWC over $1Bn annually. The test phase has been completed, with full construction set to commence in May 2023.

(Source: JIS)

• According to an interview on Beyond the Headlines with host Dionne Jackson-Miller, Finance Minister Dr. Nigel Clarke expressed that he does not anticipate any impact on Jamaica relating to the recent developments currently plaguing financial institutions, like Silicon Valley Bank and Signature Bank, in the United States. He added that the government continues to monitor financial sector stability.
• "Financial sector stability is one of the pillars of macroeconomics and something we keep a watchful eye on. At this point in time, I don't see any reason to worry about developments at those financial institutions in the United States, as I don't see any sort of impact from those developments and Jamaica.", the Finance Minister said.
• Clarke also explained that "When authorities begin to raise interest rates in the way they have over the past year, you can get mismatches that lead to problems, some of what we have seen happening in the United States.” He went on to state that “certainly as far as our foreign exporters are concerned, Jamaica has lined up $1.7Bn worth of lines of credit which we don't have to all drawdown. We have these credit lines in place because of my view that we are in uncertain times". 
• Silicon Valley Bank and Signature Bank failed two weeks ago, as hundreds of investors sought to withdraw funds, but their requests could not be met. The US government later intervened, assuring depositors of their funds, taking over management of the banks, and pledging to fire the banks' leadership.
• The Bank of Jamaica (BOJ) continues to supervise deposit-taking institutions (DTIs) and oversee the determination of asset prices, making certain that participants are able to honour promises to settle market transactions and preventing the emergence of systemic settlement risk arising from various financial imbalances that may develop within individual institutions or the system.

(Source: RJR-Beyond the Headlines & BOJ)

• Deputy Secretary-General of the European External Action Service (EEAS), Helena König, has said that Guyana has seen impressive economic growth, which provides opportunities to lift the country’s people out of poverty.
• König made these remarks last Thursday (March 16, 2023) evening at a reception that was held in her honour. König said that the economic growth seen can provide significant opportunities for the Guyanese people whilst noting that the European Union (EU) stands ready to accompany Guyana on the dynamic journey.
• Against this backdrop, she stated that the EU also has several programmes to support Guyana in this regard in sectors such as agriculture and the sustainable management of forests, be it production, processing, or export.
• Guyana is anticipated to be a regional and global growth outperformer in 2023, with its economy predicted to grow 29.0% in 2023 from 62.3% in 2022 from the surging oil production and inbound investments. These growth drivers will continue to increase government stimulus and narrow the fiscal deficit.
• Although Guyana’s recent growth is based on oil-and-gas reserves, it is obvious that the country is striving towards having a diversified economy, with officials engaging in discussions surrounding climate change, forest partnerships, food security, trade, connectivity, digitization, and even pharmaceutical cooperation.

(Source: Guyana Chronicle)

• Fitch Solutions believes that the recent banking sector stress means that downside risks to global growth will play out through three main channels including banking sector uncertainty, tighter financial conditions, and the potential for weaker credit growth as banks focus on strengthening their balance sheets.
• First, although policymakers responded with liquidity support to Silicon Valley Bank and Signature Bank, their fall has created an untrustworthy atmosphere among regional banks. In addition, Credit Suisse came under significant stress, with credit default swaps surging to record highs as its stock price fell sharply. At the time of writing, UBS agreed to acquire Credit Suisse for $3.23Bn, and while this will help to quell short-term investor fears, this has weighed on investor confidence and could also depress US and global growth.
• Second, there has been a sharp tightening of financial conditions. Although the futures markets saw a significant dovish repricing of the path for interest rates in the US over the past week, market-based measures of financial stress increased significantly. While short-end bond yields in the US declined sharply at the same time, credit spreads across both investment grade, and high-yield bonds rose sharply, pointing to a more challenging financing environment. Moreover, this was accompanied by a sharp increase in bond volatility and a decline in equity markets, which points to increased downside volatility and weaker risk appetite over the near term.
• Third, downside risks to credit growth in the US and abroad have risen as banks focus on risk management, strengthening their balance sheet, and improving their liquidity positions. As a result, in addition to rising interest rates, there is also the potential for recent banking stress to result in credit growth slowing sharply both in the US and Europe over the coming months, which would weigh on real GDP growth.

(Source: Fitch Solutions)

• The Bank of England must decide next week whether to halt its long run of interest rate hikes or push them up again, probably for one last time, despite investor alarm over how banks in the United States and Europe are coping with higher borrowing costs.
• A 25 basis-point rise would take bank rates to 4.25%, where most economists said it would stay for at least a year. But investors have turned more doubtful about the BoE's appetite for more rate hikes in recent days amid mounting anxieties about the global banking sector. Interest rate futures on Friday showed traders were putting a roughly 50-50 chance on the BoE maintaining Bank Rate at 4% next week. A week ago, a pause was given only a 10% chance.
• Economists at Investec said the turmoil in markets had led them to change their call for the BoE's decision to no change. "To our judgment, a pause seems to be the most likely outturn, although that does not necessarily imply that tightening has finished," they said in a note to clients.

(Source: CNBC)

• Tropical Battery has recorded a year-over-year decline of 22.0% in its net profit to $44.18Mn for the first quarter of the financial year ending December 31, 2022. Revenue for the quarter was down by 1.9% to $649.44Mn and is largely attributed to the global supply chain issues and the shortage of materials. On the other hand, operating expenses for the quarter came in at $144.70Mn, 26.4% higher than last year's $114.50Mn. This increase was mainly due to higher rental/lease costs.
• TROPICAL’s stock price has decreased by 9.0% since the start of the calendar year. The stock closed Friday’s trading session at $2.01 and currently trades at a P/E of 14.2x, below the Junior Market Distribution Sector Average of 17.5x.
• Tropical Battery’s expansion of the Grove Road location is expected to be completed by December 2024. Affiliated company Diverze Properties previously acquired the neighbouring properties on which Tropical Battery is building a larger retail store with more warehouse and parking spaces.  Additionally, the company has indicated that it has taken proactive steps to increase our inventory levels to address any potential supply chain disruptions which may affect revenue generation.

(Source: JSE)