• The House of Representatives has approved the Fourth Supplementary Estimates for the fiscal year 2025/26, which reflects an increase in government expenditure of J$14.36Bn. The Estimates, approved on February 3, propose a total expenditure of approximately $1.391 Trillion, an increase of the Budget from the third supplementary estimates of $1,376 Trillion.
• In her remarks, Minister of Finance and the Public Service, Hon. Fayval Williams, said Central Government expenditure estimates are being adjusted to incorporate total incremental expenditure of J$14.36Bn, of which J$13.4Bn relates to Hurricane Melissa expenditure approved by Cabinet, subsequent to either the preparation of or the approval of the third supplementary in December 2025.
• It also accounts for J$960.0Mn, which represents an initial payment to Trans Americas Fibre Systems Limited, an amount that is due upon the signing of a letter of intent between the company and the Government of Jamaica to pursue the provision of additional sub-sea fibre capacity.
• Williams also stated that the changes to the 2025/2026 Public Bodies Estimates of Revenue and Expenditure reflect the additional central government budgetary support approved for the Development Bank of Jamaica.
• “Additionally, there is an adjustment to the budget of the Ministry of Health and Wellness for J$400.0Mn to be utilised under phase one of the Hurricane Melissa Rehabilitation Programme for Public Health, with J$300.0Mn for facilities assessment and repair mobilisation, and J$100.0Mn for the purchase of fixed assets in the region,” she noted.
• Williams said the additional J$13.4Bn being proposed for regularisation in the fourth supplementary estimates will bring the total sum allocated by Cabinet for pre and post-Hurricane Melissa response and relief activities to J$66.76Bn, inclusive of the $24.18Bn loan approved by Cabinet to the Jamaica Public Service Company, to facilitate the speedy restoration of electricity across the island.

(Source: JIS)

• The Government of Barbados will require about $598.60Mn to pay debt from December 2025 to March 31, 2026. With the Ministry of Finance projecting that the public debt stock will be around $15.04Bn at the end of March, total debt payments for the full 2025-2026 fiscal year are now an estimated $2.5Bn. This information is detailed in the January 27 Pre-Election Economic and Fiscal Update Report published by the Ministry of Finance.
• According to the report, approximately $598.60Mn will be required to service existing debt obligations for the period December 2025 to March 2026, including $263.3Mn for interest expense, $304Mn for amortisation, $3Mn for loan expenses and $28.2Mn for Sinking Fund contributions,” the report stated.
• This is approximately $110.30Mn less than the budgeted amount for the period and is attributable primarily to the liability management operation conducted in June 2025, which involved the repurchase of approximately US$340.40Mn of the Government’s 2029 6.5% note and the issuance of a new US$500 million 2035 eight per cent note. Expenditure was therefore front-loaded in the first half of the financial year. The interest on the new US$500Mn eight per cent note, which will commence in December, will be somewhat mitigated by the reduced payment on the Government’s 2029 6.5% note due in March 2026.
• The ministry said the total revised debt expenditure of $2.5Bn was about $682.9Mn more than the amount approved in the Estimates, attributing the increase primarily to “the repurchase of the Government’s 2029 6.5% Eurobond and to a partial prepayment of the International Monetary Fund External Fund Facility obligations, executed as a liability management operation in June 2025.
• With the public debt stock expected to be $15.04Bn at the end of the current financial year on March 31, the Ministry of Finance said this was comprised of domestic debt ($8.91Bn), external debt ($5.87Mn), external guaranteed debt ($67Mn) and Central Government arrears ($185.50Mn).
• Regarding state-owned enterprises (SOEs), the report noted that at the end of September 2025, total SOEs arrears contracted to $77Mn following a peak of $117.80Mn in July 2022, which was the direct result of tax arrears accumulated by the Barbados National Oil Company Ltd and accrued NIS (National Insurance) arrears related to outstanding severance and NIS contributions by other SOEs. On average, the stock of SOE arrears is expected to decline by at least $2.4Mn per quarter during fiscal year 2025/26.

(Source: Nation News)

• The Bahamian economy grew close to 3% in 2025 and is expected to remain above its medium-term potential in 2026, according to Central Bank Governor John Rolle. This follows an estimated 3.4% rise in 2024, remaining above the medium-term potential of just under 2.0% per annum.
• Growth in tourism earnings supported the outcome, with pricing improvements bolstering otherwise capacity-constrained performance in the stopover market, alongside a sustained and robust expansion in cruise output,” Governor Rolle highlighted. He added that foreign investment continued to provide stimulus and, combined with tourism, helped boost employment. Expanded domestic lending also supported consumer spending and local investment, while loan default risks further reduced.
• Rolle noted that stopover tourism was constrained by limited hotel sector capacity and softer U.S. travel demand, but earnings were supported by higher pricing, continued vacation rental growth, and arrivals from non-U.S. visitors, particularly from Canada. The cruise market also maintained strong growth, bolstered by steady investments in private destination facilities. Official data from the Ministry of Tourism revealed that total visitor arrivals rose by 11.4% to 12.5Mn visitors in 2025, relative to 2024. Sea arrivals expanded by 13.8% to 10.8Mn, compared to the prior year. However, air arrivals fell by 1.6% to 1.7Mn, compared to 2024.
• As it relates to inflation, Rolle noted that the most recent data available through mid-2025 showed average prices fell marginally, signalling a negative inflation rate, compared with a positive rate in the same period in 2024. According to the Central Bank, in the 12 months to July 2025, the inflation was incrementally negative, compared to a positive rate of 1.5% in the same period last year. The 2025 period reflected reductions in the average costs for transportation, housing, water, gas, electricity & other fuels; recreation & culture; and restaurants & hotels.
• Looking ahead, Rolle noted that the economy’s growth rate in 2026 is expected to remain above its medium-term potential. “With the U.S. contribution to stopover projected to strengthen, stopover earnings growth could stabilise or improve incrementally, and along with vibrancy in cruise activity, help to at least maintain the same rate of gains as was experienced in 2025. Steadied-to-accelerated credit growth is expected to maintain elevated domestic demand, spending on imports, and limit any potential for a boost to either external reserves or bank liquidity. The Central Bank is fully accommodative of this outcome, given the existing healthy levels of external reserves,” he said.
• Rolle also cautioned that, while near- and medium-term risks to financial stability and the currency remain contained, external risks persist, including uncertainties in global trade policy and geopolitical tensions in the Middle East and Eastern Europe.

 (Source: Eyewitness News)

• The European Central Bank (ECB) kept its key interest rate steady at 2% on Thursday, February 5, 2026, maintaining the pause in a rate-cutting cycle that began in June 2024. Inflation should stabilise at its 2% target in the medium term, the ECB said, reiterating its previous wording.
• The decision comes a day after January’s surprisingly low eurozone inflation figures were released by Eurostat. Consumer prices in the eurozone increased by 1.7% year over year in January, down from December’s reading of 1.9% and significantly below consensus forecasts of a 2.0% rise.
• The stronger euro, which reached its highest level against the US dollar since 2021 in January, makes imports cheaper for buyers in the eurozone, adding downward pressure on inflation. At the same time, the stronger currency could pose a headwind for eurozone exporters just as the region’s economy shows tentative signs of recovery.
• “The economy remains resilient in a challenging global environment. Low unemployment, solid private sector balance sheets, the gradual rollout of public spending on defence and infrastructure and the supportive effects of the past interest rate cuts are underpinning growth,” the eurozone’s central bank added, while giving no forward guidance on interest rates.
• On Thursday, the Bank of England (BOE) also held interest rates at 3.75% following an unexpected increase in inflation in December to 3.4%, up from 3.2% in November and more positive economic indicators in January. The decision was anticipated well in advance by futures markets, which still expect the only rate cut of the year to occur in April.
• The BoE’s Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) voted by a majority of five votes to four in favour of the rate hold. The four members who voted to cut preferred to lower rates by 25 basis points to 3.5%. The BoE still expects the United Kingdom (U.K) inflation to fall back to its 2% target in 2026 and named April as the most likely month because of falling energy prices and the impact of the tax-raising Autumn Budget 2025. The Bank’s governor, Andrew Bailey, predicts “quite a sharp drop in inflation over the coming months.”
• That said, one key factor that has surfaced since the last MPC meeting is political risk, which has pushed up gilt yields and piled pressure on the pound. A crisis currently engulfing UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer could ultimately result in a change of Labour Party leader in 2026, which could itself cause major fiscal policy changes in Whitehall. As well as several other geopolitical factors, the Bank is likely to approach such upheaval with a further degree of caution.

(Source: Morningstar)

• U.S. companies announced the largest number of job cuts for any January since the depths of the Great Recession in 2009, according to data from outplacement firm Challenger, Gray & Christmas Inc. Companies last month announced 108,435 job cuts, a 118% increase from a year earlier.
• The report on Thursday, February 5, 2026, also showed hiring intentions slid 13% from a year earlier to 5,306, marking the weakest total for any January in the firm’s records back to 2009.
• “Generally, we see a high number of job cuts in the first quarter, but this is a high total for January,” said Andy Challenger, the company’s chief revenue officer. “It means most of these plans were set at the end of 2025, signalling employers are less-than-optimistic about the outlook for 2026.”
• Contract loss, economic conditions and restructuring were the top three reasons for announced job cuts last month, according to the report. Almost half of the job cuts announced in January were tied to three companies, Amazon.com Inc., United Parcel Service Inc. and Dow Inc. Amazon announced plans to cut 16,000 corporate positions in a restructuring move, while UPS said it would shed as many as 30,000. Chemical maker Dow intends to eliminate about 4,500 positions, while Peloton Interactive Inc. and Nike Inc. also announced workforce reductions.
• The figures add to signs of a fragile labour market, characterised by limited numbers of overall dismissals and lacklustre hiring, that has unnerved consumers. At the same time, Federal Reserve policymakers contend the unemployment rate is showing “some signs of stabilisation.”

(Source: Bloomberg)

• Despite remaining largely stable through Q4 2025 following Hurricane Melissa in late October¹, recent US dollar weakness has been a tailwind for the JMD so far this year. The JMD has appreciated 2.0% against the US dollar year-to-date, trading near JMD156/USD on February 3, 2026, down from JMD159/USD on December 31, 2025.
• US officials have sought to reassure markets of their steadfast commitment to the “strong-dollar policy” following comments by President Trump suggesting otherwise – likely helping to stabilise the USD in the near term. However, Fitch BMI expects continued USD softness, which, when coupled with sustained BOJ support, all else equal, should support the JMD.
• While weak growth, stronger import demand, and rising inflation will add depreciation pressure, sustained BOJ support should help to offset headwinds to the JMD. Despite BOJ’s interventions in the foreign exchange market since Hurricane Melissa in October 2025, Jamaica’s foreign reserve position has strengthened, by 12.5% in December 2025 y-o-y, from USD5.6bn to USD6.3bn, enough to cover 7.7 months of imports. This underpins Fitch BMI’s view that the BoJ will continue to support the currency as needed to offset imported inflation and maintain stability in the foreign exchange market.
• Moreover, the BOJ is also expected to maintain a more restrictive monetary policy stance. The BOJ is expected to hold its policy rate at 5.75%in 2026while the US Fed delivers 50bps of cuts over the year, narrowing the interest-rate differential and supporting the JMD.
• Consequently, Fitch BMI expects the Jamaican dollar to remain broadly stable through 2026, ending the year at JMD162/USD, from JMD159/USD to end 2025.
• The BOJ's continued support of the currency amid USD softness will likely help manage the economy by curbing imported inflation and lowering the cost of rebuilding materials following Hurricane Melissa.

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¹With the currency hovering just below the JMD160/USD level from November 2025 to December 2025 amid ongoing interventions by the central bank.

(Source: Fitch BMI & NCBCM Research)

• The Government has signed a letter of intent with Trans Americas Fibre System for a subsea cable project to strengthen Jamaica’s digital infrastructure, diversify international connectivity, and reduce reliance on a single cable that currently carries about 54% of internet traffic.
• Prime Minister Andrew Holness described the project as a strategic investment in long-term economic growth, competitiveness, education, employment, and national resilience, noting that Hurricane Melissa highlighted the need for more robust and redundant infrastructure.
• The TAM-1 network offers Jamaica a cost- and time-efficient connection to a nearly operational 7,000-kilometre regional cable system linking the US, Panama, and Colombia, with a dedicated spur delivering up to 20 terabits per second of bandwidth and built-in redundancy.
• The Government intends to de-risk the investment while keeping the cable carrier-neutral and open to all service providers, fostering competition that is expected to significantly lower internet prices and improve access for consumers and businesses.
• Once finalised, the project is expected to cut international bandwidth costs by up to 99%, support Jamaica’s National Broadband Project, help close the digital divide, and position the country for stronger, more resilient digital-led growth, with construction targeted for late 2026 and operations by Q3 2027.

(Source: JIS)

• Homeowners will benefit from softening global reinsurance premiums that will lead to lower property insurance prices on the islands. It marks a welcome relief for property owners who have been forced to pay rising premiums in recent years.
• A flood of new investors has boosted reinsurance capacity in recent years, with a recent Reinsurance Outlook from global audit and consultant firm EY showing that global reinsurance capital reached US$735 billion in the first half of 2025, up 30% from US$565 billion in 2020.
• That increase was fuelled by the entry of new investors into the reinsurance sector. “Private equity firms are entering the insurance space,” noted the Walkers Fundamentals 2025 report. “The continuing convergence between the insurance and asset management markets has been a significant trend in the last year.”
• Another reason the reinsurance industry is awash with capital is that the damage from natural catastrophes has been less than expected. Michael Gayle, CEO of Cayman Islands National Insurance Company (CINICO), noted that industry losses were in excess of US$100Bn last year, but that was within expectations. As such, it is not unusual to see a return of capital and new reinsurance capacity being made available.
• Cayman’s flexible financial centre has played a key role in facilitating some of the new entrants to the reinsurance market. But these global reinsurance trends will also have a much more direct impact on people living on the islands. The greater amount of reinsurance capital available means that insurers can get better deals, which they will pass on to their customers.
• According to ratings agency Moody’s, 75% of reinsurance companies expect premiums to fall. “The word I am getting from the reinsurance industry is that worldwide catastrophe reinsurance costs have gone down by between 5% and 10%,” said Gayle. “That does not necessarily translate to 5% to 10% in each territory or country, but generally speaking, that has been the trend.” As a result, CINICO will offer lower rates of property insurance this year.

(Source: Cayman Compass)

• The International Monetary Fund (IMF) says Antigua and Barbuda's economic expansion continued in 2025, supported by a pickup in construction, alongside easing inflationary pressures.
• An IMF delegation headed by economist David Moore has ended a two-week mission to the Caribbean island, noting that the most recent data indicate real gross domestic product (GDP) growth of 2.5% in 2024, reflecting a mix of strong tourist arrivals and slower construction activity. It said that for 2025, staff estimates growth at 3%, reflecting a mix of rebounding construction activity but flat tourist arrivals. Inflation, which had averaged 6.2% in 2024, moderated to an estimated 1.2% in 2025, in part reflecting substantial one-off declines in transportation prices.
• The public debt burden has eased substantially in recent years, but significant arrears and financing needs are ongoing challenges. The IMF said that the debt-to-GDP ratio, which peaked around 100% during the pandemic shock in 2020, has since fallen to an estimated 68% in 2025, narrowing the gap with the Eastern Caribbean Currency Union (ECCU) benchmark of 60% by 2035.
• Nevertheless, substantial arrears to Paris Club¹ and domestic creditors and high gross financing needs have persisted, with the IMF noting that the authorities are continuing the process of validating the extent of their arrears to domestic suppliers and are pursuing a liability management operation with a view to refinancing domestic debt, reducing arrears, and financing resilience-building projects.
• However, the risk to Antigua and Barbuda’s economy is centred on a major shift in European Union policy as of late 2025, which now treats the mere operation of a Citizenship by Investment (CBI) program as an inherent security threat and sufficient grounds to suspend visa-free Schengen access. This "clampdown" is compounded by a December 2025 U.S. executive order that imposed partial entry restrictions on Antiguan nationals, specifically citing CBI security concerns, a development the February 2026 IMF mission warned creates significant "downside risks" for a country relying on these inflows to manage its 68% debt-to-GDP ratio.
• Because CBI revenue has become a critical pillar for financing climate resilience and servicing persistent debt arrears to the Paris Club, any move by the EU to follow through on its ultimatum for "phased discontinuation" of these schemes would likely collapse investor demand and trigger a severe fiscal shock, destabilising the island's recent economic gains.

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¹The Paris Club is an informal, voluntary group of major creditor nations, primarily wealthy OECD members, dedicated to finding sustainable solutions for payment difficulties faced by debtor countries. 

• On February 3, 2026, the United States (U.S.) President Donald Trump signed a law extending the African Growth and Opportunity Act (AGOA)¹ until December 31, 2026. While the U.S. House of Representatives passed legislation in January to extend AGOA for three years, the Senate then reduced this to a one-year extension (which the House concurred with).
• The extension provides only short-term certainty for African exporters and U.S. importers, falling short of the long-term renewal that advocates previously sought (10 years or more) to justify major capital investments in the manufacturing and agriculture sectors. The abbreviated timeline fuels ongoing vulnerability for businesses planning multi-year supply chain commitments.
• Additionally, an AGOA extension restores some duty‑free preferences for eligible exports, but its practical value is constrained because it does not override the Trump administration’s current unilateral tariff architecture. This includes the universal reciprocal tariffs and the expanding sector-specific Section 232 tariffs on certain metals, autos, and timber products. Even as AGOA preferences return, goods entering the US will face added levies, meaning the duty‑free promise of AGOA is somewhat eroded unless the Section 232 and reciprocal duties are removed.
• That said, the short duration also implies that future AGOA renewals could be used to pressure countries to align more closely with U.S. foreign policy by using eligibility reviews as a tool to discourage deepening economic and military ties with China, Russia, and Iran. However, countries in the region will continue to push back against this dichotomy, with efforts to increase relations with alternative trading and finance partners such as the Middle East, India and Turkiye.
• Although AGOA was extended without changes to the current list of eligible countries, likely to expedite the process, BMI anticipates revisions ahead. Notably, South Africa is expected to be excluded soon (despite the country historically being AGOA’s largest beneficiary), given worsening U.S.-South Africa relations, further hampered by developments in January, including Iran’s involvement in naval drills hosted by South Africa and Pretoria’s decision to expel Israel’s envoy to the country.
• Given the Trump administration’s more transactional approach to Sub-Saharan Africa, countries with significant critical mineral resources, like Gabon and Zimbabwe, may be added to AGOA. Ethiopia could also be reconsidered for inclusion due to its strategic location and closer ties with Israel and the UAE, as well as its untapped mineral potential. Meanwhile, Uganda’s cooperation with the U.S. on migration, specifically by accepting third-country deportees, might also favour its readmittance.

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¹AGOA provides eligible sub-Saharan African countries with duty-free access to the U.S. market for over 1,800 products, in addition to the more than 5,000 products that are eligible for duty-free access under the Generalised System of Preferences program.

(Source: BMI, A Fitch Solutions Company)