• Royal Caribbean Group (RCL) has agreed to acquire a 50% stake in a newly established joint venture controlling Sandals Resorts International for US$3.0Bn, valuing the Caribbean all-inclusive resort operator at US$6.0Bn. The transaction, which represents a forward EBITDA multiple of approximately 10x, is the largest in the cruise operator’s history. Parts of the Stewart family will retain control of the other half of the business.
• The deal adds Sandals’ 20 resorts across the Caribbean to Royal Caribbean’s portfolio, operated under the couples-only Sandals brand and the family-focused Beaches brand, with properties in Jamaica, the Bahamas, Saint Lucia, Grenada, Barbados and St Vincent. The acquisition extends the company’s push into land-based vacations, building on its Perfect Day and Royal Beach Club private destinations and its planned 2027 entry into river cruising, while allowing it to cross-sell holidays on land to its customers.
• The joint venture will be governed by a board under the shared leadership of Jason Liberty, Royal Caribbean’s Chairman and CEO, and Adam Stewart, who will remain Executive Chairman of Sandals and Beaches Resorts. Existing reservations, loyalty programs and resort operations will continue as usual. Royal Caribbean has secured committed debt financing from Morgan Stanley, and the transaction is expected to close in early 2027.
• The agreement caps years of stop-start efforts to sell Sandals, the Caribbean’s largest private employer. Several sale processes over the past decade failed to yield a deal, including an attempt halted by the pandemic, while the death of founder Gordon “Butch” Stewart in 2021 gave rise to family disputes and legal battles over the trusts holding parts of his estate. Sandals engaged bankers last year to run the latest process, which drew interest from both strategic bidders and private equity groups.
• Royal Caribbean’s shares closed down 6.1% following news of the deal and are down 17% year-to-date. Cruise operators are underperforming the wider market for the first time since the pandemic, as the conflict in Iran and regional instability dent demand. In July, Royal Caribbean trimmed its 2026 revenue growth projection to 9% from 10%, citing foreign exchange effects. The company, which operates 71 ships, has a market capitalization of US$62Bn.
• Looking ahead, the joint venture is expected to accelerate the expansion of Sandals and Beaches Resorts to meet global demand, while growing Royal Caribbean’s participation in the approximately US$2 trillion global vacation market as cruise operators seek to capture a larger share of consumers’ overall travel spending. The companies will also explore opportunities to broaden distribution and deepen guest engagement across both portfolios. The transaction is expected to be accretive to Royal Caribbean’s earnings next year, subject to customary approvals and closing conditions.

(Sources: Financial Times, Reuters, Sandals Resorts & NCBCM Research)

• Jamaica Broilers Group Limited (JBG) reported a net loss of J$6.80Bn for the year ended May 2, 2026, narrowing FY2025’s loss by 5.9%.
• The loss was driven by a J$9.76Bn hit from the discontinued operations. This comprised a J$6.00Bn net loss from The Best Dressed Chicken, Inc., the Group’s underperforming US broiler processing subsidiary, before its assets were sold, and a J$3.75Bn loss on the sale itself, as the assets’ J$8.69Bn carrying amount far exceeded the J$4.98Bn in proceeds. Still a partial booster shot was that continuing operations returned to profitability, generating a net profit of J$2.96Bn compared with a J$2.95Bn loss in FY2025. Revenue from continuing operations increased 2.3% to J$74.26Bn. This was supported by a 20.1% growth in external revenue from the Group’s continuing US operations to J$14.45Bn, while Jamaica external revenue declined 0.9% to J$60.17Bn.
• Cost of sales fell 7.8% to J$52.97Bn, driving a 41.5% increase in gross profit to J$21.66Bn and a 799 basis points widening in gross margin to 29.0%. Meanwhile, total operating expenses fell 4.9% to J$14.58Bn. Distribution costs rose 24.4% to J$3.58Bn, but administration and other expenses declined 11.7% to J$10.99Bn, reflecting lower staff and inventory costs. With other income more than tripling to J$623.62Mn, operating profit rose to J$7.71Bn from J$167.10Mn, with the operating margin expanding to 10.3% from 0.2%.
• Finance costs eased by 1.6% to J$2.49Bn, but the operating profit jump was supstantial enough to drive profit before tax to J$5.15Bn, versus a J$2.32Bn loss a year earlier.
• Notably, EY issued an unmodified audit opinion¹ compared with the prior auditor’s qualified opinion on FY2025, which had related to accounting irregularities in the US operations. An independent forensic review completed after year end found no additional transactions or irregularities requiring adjustment. However, certain covenants on US subsidiary facilities were not met, and a forbearance agreement with lenders expires on October 16, 2026. Management expects positive cash flow and EBITDA from the US operations in FY2027 and is pursuing cost controls, additional working-capital funding and revenue growth initiatives.
• Looking ahead, stronger margins and the return of continuing operations to profit provide a firmer platform for FY2027. Nonetheless, the durability of the recovery will depend on sustained performance in Jamaica, the viability and refinancing of the remaining US operations, and tighter control of finance and tax costs.
• At the close of trading on September 22nd, JBG’s share price was J$12.27, representing a 28.7% decline year-to-date. At this level, the stock’s P/B of 0.64x is below the Main Market Distribution & Manufacturing sector average of 1.50x.

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¹An unmodified audit opinion (often called a clean opinion) is a report issued by an independent auditor stating that a company's financial statements are presented fairly in all material respects and comply with accounting standards like GAAP or IFRS

(Sources: Jamaia Broilers Group Ltd. Financial Statements & NCBCM Research)

• Seprod Limited (SEP) has called an Extraordinary General Meeting (EGM) of shareholders to approve an increase in the Company’s authorised share capital, a 5-for-1 stock split and authority for the Board to issue new shares, including by way of an Additional Public Offering (APO). The EGM will be held virtually on Monday, October 12, 2026 at 12:00 p.m.
• The Board met on September 21, 2026 and agreed to put three resolutions to shareholders: an increase in the number of shares the Company is authorised to issue to 1.9Bn from 1.0Bn, the subdivision of every issued share into five shares, and authority for the Board to issue new shares in future, including through an APO.
• According to Chairman P.B. Scott, over the past four years Seprod has built the Caribbean’s largest integrated manufacturing and distribution platform for food, pharmaceuticals and premium beverages, and is now focused on integrating its businesses and strengthening its balance sheet. The resolutions are intended to provide greater flexibility to pursue these objectives while positioning the Company to take advantage of future growth opportunities.
• For the year ended December 31, 2025, Seprod reported revenue of J$152.3Bn, up 14%, with operating profit of J$11.1Bn and net profit attributable to stockholders of J$4.2Bn.
• At the close of trading on September 22nd, SEP’s share price was J$72.14, representing a 14.0% decline year-to-date. At this level, the stock’s P/E of 12.04x is below the Main Market Distribution & Manufacturing sector average of 15.12x, while its dividend yield stands at 2.5%.

(Sources: Company Press Release & NCBCM Research)

• Production from Guyana’s Yellowtail development in the Stabroek Block is expected to ramp up further before the end of 2026, with ExxonMobil studying an optimisation that could lift output from the ONE GUYANA floating production, storage and offloading (FPSO) vessel to around 290,000 barrels per day (b/d).
• The move to increase Yellowtail’s production by about 10% was announced in March by the company’s Guyana President, Alistair Routledge. The FPSO is already producing above its original design capacity of 250,000 b/d, with government data reviewed by OilNOW showing Yellowtail output reached about 270,000 b/d in July. Production ranged between 257,000 b/d and 264,000 b/d during April, May and June.
• According to the Guyana government’s mid-year report for 2026, further ramp-up of ONE GUYANA production is projected, adding to overall Stabroek Block output. “The Stabroek Block saw increased activity in the first half of this year, primarily supported by the One Guyana FPSO joining the fleet last year… Production reached 163.3 million barrels at the end of June 2026, exceeding the 115.7 million barrels achieved at the end of June 2025,” the administration stated.
• The increase in production is also expected to raise the volume of oil lifts available to the Government under the Stabroek Block production sharing agreement (PSA)¹. When the government’s 2026 budget was announced, Guyana was projected to receive 40 of the 309 oil lifts expected from the Stabroek Block. The latest projections now estimate 326 total lifts, with the government’s share rising to 84.
• ONE GUYANA began producing oil in 2025, bringing Yellowtail into production. Output rose from about 75,000 b/d in its first month to the FPSO’s 250,000 b/d design capacity within three months. The planned optimisation follows production improvements made across ExxonMobil’s other producing projects in Guyana. Liza 1 capacity was increased from 120,000 b/d to about 160,000 b/d, while Liza 2 and Payara were optimised from 220,000 b/d to about 265,000 b/d each, adding about 130,000 b/d of capacity across the three developments.
• The optimisation work has included debottlenecking FPSO systems, improving reservoir management and applying technology to improve well and facility performance. Yellowtail is expected to recover about 925 million barrels from the Yellowtail and Redtail fields through six drill centres and up to 67 development wells. ExxonMobil operates the block with a 45% interest.

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¹A Production Sharing Agreement (PSA) is a contract between a host government and a resource extraction company that sets how they will share the oil, gas, or minerals found in a specific area.

(Source: Brazil Energy Insight)

• S&P Global Ratings (S&P) affirmed Panama’s ‘BBB-/A-3’ sovereign credit ratings on September 22, 2026, and maintained a Stable Outlook, reflecting expectations of continued fiscal consolidation, resilient economic growth and broadly consistent pro-business economic policies.
• Economic growth remains a key credit strength, according to S&P, with Gross Domestic Product (GDP) expected to expand 4.5% in 2026, supported by strong Panama Canal activity, recovering construction, air transportation and tourism. Furthermore, growth is expected to average around 4% over 2027-2029, although a severe El Niño event could weigh on Canal activity in 2027 by reducing rainfall and Gatun Lake water levels.
• Panama’s fiscal position is also improving, supported by revenue efficiencies, expenditure rationalisation, lower capital spending and higher contributions from the Panama Canal. S&P expects the general government fiscal deficit to narrow to around 3% of GDP from 2027, with net general government debt stabilising at approximately 55% of GDP over 2026-2029.
• Despite the improving fiscal trajectory, Panama’s fiscal flexibility remains constrained by its low tax revenue base and spending rigidities. Tax revenue is only 6.9% of GDP, while limited capacity to implement broader tax or expenditure reforms could slow fiscal consolidation. Meanwhile, elevated external debt and Panama’s lack of monetary flexibility remain rating constraints. Against this backdrop, further fiscal consolidation that meaningfully reduces public debt and strengthens fiscal buffers could support an upgrade, while policy setbacks that slow deficit reduction or weaker-than-expected economic growth could place downward pressure on the ratings over the next 12-24 months.
• Looking ahead, Panama’s strategic position and diversified services economy should continue to support its credit profile, with the Panama Canal, tourism and air transportation underpinning current account surpluses, while geopolitical disruptions are increasing the country’s importance as a global logistics hub. Potential reopening of Minera Panamá could also provide additional growth, export and fiscal benefits, although S&P has not incorporated these potential gains into its forecasts.

(Source: S&P Global Ratings)

• Oil prices fell to a two-week low on Tuesday as prospects for increased oil supplies from the Gulf eased market concerns. Iran signalled that it could reopen the Strait of Hormuz within seven days, while Saudi Arabia was set to resume exports from its Red Sea port of Yanbu. The November Brent crude futures contract fell $2.01, or 2%, to $98.33 a barrel at 1027 GMT. The October WTI contract, which expires on Tuesday, lost $2.50, or 2.61%, to $93.28 a barrel.
• Brent November, WTI October and WTI November all touched their lowest levels since September 8. Iran can reopen ⁠ the Strait of Hormuz within seven days if the United States eases military pressure and lifts its blockade on Iranian ports, a senior Iranian official told Reuters on Tuesday.
• The official said that the Iranian delegation to the United Nations General Assembly in New York has full authority to revive diplomacy with the United States. Hamad Hussain, senior climate and commodities economist at Capital Economics, said oil prices appeared to be falling on media reports that Iran may be willing to reopen the Strait of Hormuz within seven days, which could signal that diplomatic efforts are working. Before US-Israeli attacks on Iran began in late February, the strait handled about one-fifth of global oil and liquefied natural gas supplies.
• Further weighing on prices, Saudi Arabia restarted operations on its East-West Pipeline and could resume exports from the Red Sea port of Yanbu later on Tuesday, according to three sources briefed on the matter. Two of the sources said the pipeline was operating at a low rate. Market attention is also focused on US President Donald Trump's meetings with world leaders at the UN General Assembly this week, against the backdrop of an unstable Middle East and a four-and-a-half-year war in Ukraine that shows no signs of abating.
• Meanwhile, Saudi Aramco has increased exports through the Strait of Hormuz after attacks on its East-West Pipeline forced it to halt some shipments through Yanbu. Around 14 million barrels of its crude oil were loaded on ⁠ seven supertankers inside the Gulf on Sunday, tanker tracking data showed.
• Ole Hansen, head of commodity strategy at Saxo Bank, noted that he does not see much further downside in oil prices until there is increased supply through the Strait of Hormuz, particularly refined products, where the real ⁠ crunch remains. Diesel prices have rallied in Europe and the United States to record highs as wars in Iran and Ukraine sharply cut exports from some of the biggest producers such as Russia, Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates.

(Source: Reuters)

• Despite the escalating trade war between the United States and Canada, we expect Canada's current account to shift to a surplus of 0.1% of GDP in 2026, as rising oil prices boost export receipts, before returning to a slight deficit of 0.6% of GDP in 2027 as prices begin to normalise. The US-Iran war has driven oil prices sharply higher, materially boosting Canada's exports, trade balance and external position through a sustained improvement in the country's terms of trade. With crude oil prices settling above USD100 per barrel in September 2026 and tensions around the Strait of Hormuz remaining unresolved, high energy prices are likely to continue supporting Canada's external position through surging energy exports in the near and medium term.
• Furthermore, a series of trade deals and the development of export infrastructure will help Canada diversify its export profile, offsetting some of the near-term pain caused by the ongoing trade war with the United States. However, rising energy prices could weigh on external demand, creating a medium-term headwind for Canada's exporters despite near-term tailwinds. Looking to 2027, BMI expects Canada’s current account to return to a modest deficit as elevated oil prices normalise and trade disruptions weigh on exports.
• Canada’s current account and goods trade balances returned to surplus in Q2 2026, driven by a 27.4% q-o-q surge in energy exports. Strong goods exports also outpaced import growth, lifting the trade surplus to CAD12.2Bn, the highest since Q3 2008. Automotive exports rose by 19.3% q-o-q, while the current account posted its largest surplus since Q4 2005.
• Furthermore, with Canadian energy exports not subject to US tariffs, these crucial exports have continued to rise. Also, while the United States remains the primary customer for Canada's energy producers, its share of Canadian energy exports fell to 82.7%, down from 90.6% in July 2024, while China imported an increasing share alongside rising exports to the rest of the world, a shift likely to endure as Canada pivots from its southern neighbour.
• The USMCA should continue to support North American trade by keeping most trade tariff-free, providing a boost to exports, investment, and overall trade. However, rising US-Canada trade tensions, renewed tariffs, and the lack of USMCA exemptions for some Canadian exports are increasing risks to the agreement.

(Source: BMI, a Fitch Solutions Company)

• Following a 2-month delay, Express Catering released its Audited Results for the year ending May 31, 2026, and earnings are down 28.8% to US$2.68Mn. The decline reflects a steep revenue contraction that outpaced cost containment.
• Weighed down by lower throughput at its Sangster International Airport (SIA) concession, revenues fell 26.9% to US$18.92Mn. Data from Grupo Aeroportuario del Pacífico (GAP), which operates both Jamaican airports, show SIA saw 1.93Mn passengers between November 2025 and May 2026, down from 3.01Mn in the corresponding period a year earlier. That is a 35.6% decline, with the steepest falls in November (-73.4%) and December 2025 (-43.8%) immediately after Hurricane Melissa.
• Cost of sales declined at a faster pace, down 34.4% to US$4.71Mn. As a result, gross profit fell a more modest 24.0% to US$14.21Mn and gross margin widened by 288 basis points to 75.1%. This was likely due to inherently lower sales volumes and better inventory management.
• Total operating expenses (Opex) fell 17.7% to US$9.74Mn, broadly tracking the decline in sales, with administrative expenses down 25.4% to US$5.98Mn. Declines in employee benefits (-25.5%) to US$2.42Mn, as permanent headcount was reduced to 250 from 286, lease expense (-35.6%) to US$969,815, and franchise fees (-27.0%) to US$588,770 were the primary OPEX drivers. Both of the latter two are variable costs tied to sales, meaning they contracted alongside the weaker topline.
• Depreciation and amortisation declined marginally (-1.5%), while promotional expenses rose 13.4% to US$51,759. However, Operating profit fell 34.8% to US$4.47Mn, given the sharp decline in the topline.
• Below the operating line, other income rose sharply to US$1.71Mn from US$19,198, mainly reflecting interest income of US$1.08Mn against US$11,961 in FY2025. With finance costs and FX gains flat, this softened the blow to profit before tax. Nonetheless, there was a 48.6% increase in income tax charge to US$947,961. This was driven by a deferred tax charge of US$372,883 against US$35,003 in FY2025. These factors also contributed to the lower earnings.
• Looking ahead, ECL's recovery hinges on the pace at which Sangster International traffic normalises, and the projected recovery of tourist arrivals supports further normalisation through FY2027. Jamaica's room capacity is currently around 70% of normal levels. With over 11,000 rooms returning between 2026 and 2027, full restoration is targeted for the first quarter of 2027. With Jamaica’s tourism brand still strong and room capacity restored, stopover arrivals through Sangster should rebound and with it ECL's sales. The main risks are slippages in the reopening timeline and the step-up to the full 25% tax rate once Junior Market remission ends in 2027, which could all weigh down on future earnings potential.
• ECL's share price was J$1.96 at the end of trading on Monday, an 18.3% decline since the start of the year. At this price, the stock trades at a P/E of 7.7x.

(Sources: Company Financial Statements, Grupo Aeroportuario del Pacífico, Jamaica Tourist Board & NCBCM Research)

• Indies Pharma Jamaica Limited (INDIES) reported a 25.1% increase in net profit to J$38.51Mn for the third quarter ended July 31, 2026 (Q3 2026), as revenues recovered 12.4% to J$292.38Mn. However, a stronger third quarter was not enough to heal the 9M performance.
• Buoyed by what management describes as a “visible trajectory toward recovery following Hurricane Melissa”, Q3 revenues rose 12.4% to J$292.38Mn from J$260.04Mn. The stronger topline was accompanied by a lower cost base, with cost of sales easing 2.1% to J$88.19Mn from J$90.04Mn. As a result, gross profit advanced 20.1% to J$204.19Mn and the quarterly gross margin widened by 448 basis points to 69.8%.
• Administrative and other expenses rose 15.7% to J$143.88Mn, a slower pace than the 20.1% growth in gross profit. Consequently, when paired with other operating income of J$3.85Mn, profit from operations rose 33.1% to J$64.16Mn.
• However, net profit growth faced side effects of finance costs totalling J$23.95Mn (+58.5%), owing to its larger and more expensive bond. In September 2025, Indies retired its J$805.0Mn 7.0% Sagicor Bank Jamaica bond with a five-year J$1.00Bn 9.5% facility from National Commercial Bank. This borrowing was 24.2% larger, at a coupon 250 basis points higher. Meanwhile, a foreign exchange loss of J$0.15Mn, which reversed Q3 2025 gains of J$1.71Mn, also suppressed the pre-tax profit growth to 15.1% at J$40.06Mn.
• Notwithstanding the positive Q3, 9M 2026 earnings are down 28.5% to J$120.53Mn. Revenues (+0.1%) and gross profit (+0.8%) are largely flat, but higher admin and other expenses (+9.9%) and finance costs (+59.5%) were bitter pills to swallow and were symptoms of a weaker H1 206. The weaker H1 was due to post-Melissa disruptions and higher finance costs following the refinancing.
• Looking ahead, performance should continue to normalise as the distance from the storm widens. With reconstruction progressing, and household and business activity being restored across the island, this supports the normalisation of demand for Indies’ products.
• At the close of trading on September 21^st, INDIES' share price was J$2.61, representing an 8.1% decline year-to-date. At this level, the stock trades at a P/E of 25.1x, above the Junior Market Health sector average of 22.5x and offers a dividend yield of 5.2%.

(Sources: Company Financial Statements & NCBCM Research)

• On September 21, 2026, S&P Global Ratings affirmed Jamaica’s ‘BB’ long-term and ‘B’ short-term foreign and local currency sovereign credit ratings, with a stable outlook. The stable outlook balances expectations that the government will prudently manage the recovery and rebuilding of Jamaica’s infrastructure as well as its inherent vulnerability to external shocks.
• Real GDP is projected to contract 1.1% in 2026 before rebounding 3.0% in 2027 and 2.6% in 2028, supported in part by reconstruction centralised through the National Reconstruction and Resilience Authority. Tourism, which accounts for as much as 30% of GDP, had about 72% of hotel operators back in operation as at July 2026, while tourist passengers in H1 2026 were 20% lower than a year earlier.
• On the fiscal side, a temporary deterioration of the government's fiscal profile is expected given the magnitude and severity of Hurricane Melissa. As such, the government is projected to deviate from its past modest surpluses and report a fiscal deficit of 4.2% for fiscal 2026. Its fiscal profile is expected to further deteriorate in fiscal 2027 (-2.5%) as revenues remain pressured and post-Melissa reconstruction spending scales, before narrowing to 0.6% by 2028. Still, it is important to note that, Jamaica is the only one of the 141 sovereigns rated by S&P to have posted an annual primary surplus above 3% of GDP for each of the past 10 years.
• Net general government debt is also expected to rise to 55.6% of GDP this year from 53.6% in 2025, before easing to 50.1% by 2029. Interest on debt is projected to absorb about 17% of revenues on average over 2026 to 2029. S&P also flagged that the public sector wage agreements signed in August 2026 could lift wages and salaries to 13.5% of GDP by the end of FY2027. S&P also believes there is strong commitment across government to return to a 60% debt-to-GDP ratio by FY2030, although the government has yet to legislate a timeline to achieve this ceiling
• Externally, the current account is expected to swing to deficits averaging 3.3% of GDP over the next four years. Coming from surpluses averaging 2.3% of GDP in the prior two years, this is owed to lower exports, higher rebuilding-related imports and higher energy costs.
• The credit rating could be downgraded during the next 12 months if changing fiscal policy and a weaker commitment to fiscal sustainability over the long term lead to materially larger, sustained deficits over the forecast horizon, that is not expected to improve. Conversely, the ratings could be upgraded over the same period if Jamaica's debt burden improves with a sustained and material decrease in its interest-to-revenues ratio and a quicker recovery in the government's fiscal performance. A positive action could also occur if the economic recovery is substantially faster and stronger than expected, leading to higher longer-term economic growth that converges with that of peers at a similar level of economic development

(Source: S&P Global Ratings)