• Despite remaining largely stable through Q4 2025 following Hurricane Melissa in late October¹, recent US dollar weakness has been a tailwind for the JMD so far this year. The JMD has appreciated 2.0% against the US dollar year-to-date, trading near JMD156/USD on February 3, 2026, down from JMD159/USD on December 31, 2025.
• US officials have sought to reassure markets of their steadfast commitment to the “strong-dollar policy” following comments by President Trump suggesting otherwise – likely helping to stabilise the USD in the near term. However, Fitch BMI expects continued USD softness, which, when coupled with sustained BOJ support, all else equal, should support the JMD.
• While weak growth, stronger import demand, and rising inflation will add depreciation pressure, sustained BOJ support should help to offset headwinds to the JMD. Despite BOJ’s interventions in the foreign exchange market since Hurricane Melissa in October 2025, Jamaica’s foreign reserve position has strengthened, by 12.5% in December 2025 y-o-y, from USD5.6bn to USD6.3bn, enough to cover 7.7 months of imports. This underpins Fitch BMI’s view that the BoJ will continue to support the currency as needed to offset imported inflation and maintain stability in the foreign exchange market.
• Moreover, the BOJ is also expected to maintain a more restrictive monetary policy stance. The BOJ is expected to hold its policy rate at 5.75%in 2026while the US Fed delivers 50bps of cuts over the year, narrowing the interest-rate differential and supporting the JMD.
• Consequently, Fitch BMI expects the Jamaican dollar to remain broadly stable through 2026, ending the year at JMD162/USD, from JMD159/USD to end 2025.
• The BOJ's continued support of the currency amid USD softness will likely help manage the economy by curbing imported inflation and lowering the cost of rebuilding materials following Hurricane Melissa.

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¹With the currency hovering just below the JMD160/USD level from November 2025 to December 2025 amid ongoing interventions by the central bank.

(Source: Fitch BMI & NCBCM Research)

• The Government has signed a letter of intent with Trans Americas Fibre System for a subsea cable project to strengthen Jamaica’s digital infrastructure, diversify international connectivity, and reduce reliance on a single cable that currently carries about 54% of internet traffic.
• Prime Minister Andrew Holness described the project as a strategic investment in long-term economic growth, competitiveness, education, employment, and national resilience, noting that Hurricane Melissa highlighted the need for more robust and redundant infrastructure.
• The TAM-1 network offers Jamaica a cost- and time-efficient connection to a nearly operational 7,000-kilometre regional cable system linking the US, Panama, and Colombia, with a dedicated spur delivering up to 20 terabits per second of bandwidth and built-in redundancy.
• The Government intends to de-risk the investment while keeping the cable carrier-neutral and open to all service providers, fostering competition that is expected to significantly lower internet prices and improve access for consumers and businesses.
• Once finalised, the project is expected to cut international bandwidth costs by up to 99%, support Jamaica’s National Broadband Project, help close the digital divide, and position the country for stronger, more resilient digital-led growth, with construction targeted for late 2026 and operations by Q3 2027.

(Source: JIS)

• Homeowners will benefit from softening global reinsurance premiums that will lead to lower property insurance prices on the islands. It marks a welcome relief for property owners who have been forced to pay rising premiums in recent years.
• A flood of new investors has boosted reinsurance capacity in recent years, with a recent Reinsurance Outlook from global audit and consultant firm EY showing that global reinsurance capital reached US$735 billion in the first half of 2025, up 30% from US$565 billion in 2020.
• That increase was fuelled by the entry of new investors into the reinsurance sector. “Private equity firms are entering the insurance space,” noted the Walkers Fundamentals 2025 report. “The continuing convergence between the insurance and asset management markets has been a significant trend in the last year.”
• Another reason the reinsurance industry is awash with capital is that the damage from natural catastrophes has been less than expected. Michael Gayle, CEO of Cayman Islands National Insurance Company (CINICO), noted that industry losses were in excess of US$100Bn last year, but that was within expectations. As such, it is not unusual to see a return of capital and new reinsurance capacity being made available.
• Cayman’s flexible financial centre has played a key role in facilitating some of the new entrants to the reinsurance market. But these global reinsurance trends will also have a much more direct impact on people living on the islands. The greater amount of reinsurance capital available means that insurers can get better deals, which they will pass on to their customers.
• According to ratings agency Moody’s, 75% of reinsurance companies expect premiums to fall. “The word I am getting from the reinsurance industry is that worldwide catastrophe reinsurance costs have gone down by between 5% and 10%,” said Gayle. “That does not necessarily translate to 5% to 10% in each territory or country, but generally speaking, that has been the trend.” As a result, CINICO will offer lower rates of property insurance this year.

(Source: Cayman Compass)

• The International Monetary Fund (IMF) says Antigua and Barbuda's economic expansion continued in 2025, supported by a pickup in construction, alongside easing inflationary pressures.
• An IMF delegation headed by economist David Moore has ended a two-week mission to the Caribbean island, noting that the most recent data indicate real gross domestic product (GDP) growth of 2.5% in 2024, reflecting a mix of strong tourist arrivals and slower construction activity. It said that for 2025, staff estimates growth at 3%, reflecting a mix of rebounding construction activity but flat tourist arrivals. Inflation, which had averaged 6.2% in 2024, moderated to an estimated 1.2% in 2025, in part reflecting substantial one-off declines in transportation prices.
• The public debt burden has eased substantially in recent years, but significant arrears and financing needs are ongoing challenges. The IMF said that the debt-to-GDP ratio, which peaked around 100% during the pandemic shock in 2020, has since fallen to an estimated 68% in 2025, narrowing the gap with the Eastern Caribbean Currency Union (ECCU) benchmark of 60% by 2035.
• Nevertheless, substantial arrears to Paris Club¹ and domestic creditors and high gross financing needs have persisted, with the IMF noting that the authorities are continuing the process of validating the extent of their arrears to domestic suppliers and are pursuing a liability management operation with a view to refinancing domestic debt, reducing arrears, and financing resilience-building projects.
• However, the risk to Antigua and Barbuda’s economy is centred on a major shift in European Union policy as of late 2025, which now treats the mere operation of a Citizenship by Investment (CBI) program as an inherent security threat and sufficient grounds to suspend visa-free Schengen access. This "clampdown" is compounded by a December 2025 U.S. executive order that imposed partial entry restrictions on Antiguan nationals, specifically citing CBI security concerns, a development the February 2026 IMF mission warned creates significant "downside risks" for a country relying on these inflows to manage its 68% debt-to-GDP ratio.
• Because CBI revenue has become a critical pillar for financing climate resilience and servicing persistent debt arrears to the Paris Club, any move by the EU to follow through on its ultimatum for "phased discontinuation" of these schemes would likely collapse investor demand and trigger a severe fiscal shock, destabilising the island's recent economic gains.

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¹The Paris Club is an informal, voluntary group of major creditor nations, primarily wealthy OECD members, dedicated to finding sustainable solutions for payment difficulties faced by debtor countries. 

• On February 3, 2026, the United States (U.S.) President Donald Trump signed a law extending the African Growth and Opportunity Act (AGOA)¹ until December 31, 2026. While the U.S. House of Representatives passed legislation in January to extend AGOA for three years, the Senate then reduced this to a one-year extension (which the House concurred with).
• The extension provides only short-term certainty for African exporters and U.S. importers, falling short of the long-term renewal that advocates previously sought (10 years or more) to justify major capital investments in the manufacturing and agriculture sectors. The abbreviated timeline fuels ongoing vulnerability for businesses planning multi-year supply chain commitments.
• Additionally, an AGOA extension restores some duty‑free preferences for eligible exports, but its practical value is constrained because it does not override the Trump administration’s current unilateral tariff architecture. This includes the universal reciprocal tariffs and the expanding sector-specific Section 232 tariffs on certain metals, autos, and timber products. Even as AGOA preferences return, goods entering the US will face added levies, meaning the duty‑free promise of AGOA is somewhat eroded unless the Section 232 and reciprocal duties are removed.
• That said, the short duration also implies that future AGOA renewals could be used to pressure countries to align more closely with U.S. foreign policy by using eligibility reviews as a tool to discourage deepening economic and military ties with China, Russia, and Iran. However, countries in the region will continue to push back against this dichotomy, with efforts to increase relations with alternative trading and finance partners such as the Middle East, India and Turkiye.
• Although AGOA was extended without changes to the current list of eligible countries, likely to expedite the process, BMI anticipates revisions ahead. Notably, South Africa is expected to be excluded soon (despite the country historically being AGOA’s largest beneficiary), given worsening U.S.-South Africa relations, further hampered by developments in January, including Iran’s involvement in naval drills hosted by South Africa and Pretoria’s decision to expel Israel’s envoy to the country.
• Given the Trump administration’s more transactional approach to Sub-Saharan Africa, countries with significant critical mineral resources, like Gabon and Zimbabwe, may be added to AGOA. Ethiopia could also be reconsidered for inclusion due to its strategic location and closer ties with Israel and the UAE, as well as its untapped mineral potential. Meanwhile, Uganda’s cooperation with the U.S. on migration, specifically by accepting third-country deportees, might also favour its readmittance.

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¹AGOA provides eligible sub-Saharan African countries with duty-free access to the U.S. market for over 1,800 products, in addition to the more than 5,000 products that are eligible for duty-free access under the Generalised System of Preferences program.

(Source: BMI, A Fitch Solutions Company)

• Vice President JD Vance on Wednesday, February 4, 2026, unveiled plans to marshal allies into a preferential trade bloc for critical minerals, proposing coordinated price floors as Washington escalates efforts to loosen China's grip on materials crucial to advanced manufacturing.
• China has wielded its chokehold on the processing of many minerals as geo-economic leverage, at times curbing exports, suppressing prices and undercutting other countries' ability to diversify sources of the materials used to make semiconductors, electric vehicles and advanced weapons. President Donald Trump's administration has stepped up efforts to secure U.S. supplies of critical minerals after China rattled senior officials and global markets last year by withholding rare earths required by American automakers and other industrial manufacturers.
• Trump on Monday launched a U.S. strategic stockpile of critical minerals, called Project Vault, backed by US$10Bn in seed funding from the U.S. Export-Import Bank and US$2Bn in private funding. Secretary of State Marco Rubio noted that 55 countries attended the talks in Washington, among them South Korea, India, Thailand, Japan, Germany, Australia, and the Democratic Republic of Congo, all with varying refining or mining capabilities. The minerals are "heavily concentrated in the hands of one country," Rubio said, without referencing China, adding that the situation had become a "tool of leverage in geopolitics."
• At the meeting, U.S. Trade Representative Jamieson Greer announced a bilateral plan with Mexico and a trilateral agreement with the European Union and Japan to strengthen critical mineral supply chains and set the stage for a broader agreement with other allies. The plans aim to explore specific measures such as price supports, market standards, subsidies, and guaranteed purchases to encourage production. The U.S., EU, and Japan also said they would pursue other avenues, including discussions within the Group of 7 and the Minerals Security Partnership.
• By guaranteeing minimum prices through coordinated trade rules, Washington hopes to unlock private investment in mining and processing projects that have struggled to compete with cheaper Chinese supply. Administration officials recently told the industry the U.S. is moving away from granting price floors to individual domestic projects as it seeks a global solution. The approach could reshape global supply chains for materials essential to electric vehicles, semiconductors and defence systems, while raising costs for manufacturers in the short term and escalating trade tensions with Beijing.

(Source: Reuters)

• Mayberry Jamaican Equities (MJE) reported an unaudited net loss of US$30.98Mn for the twelve months ended December 2025 (FY2025), down from the US$0.89Mn loss in FY2024. Net fair value declines on its financial instruments totalling US$7.68Mn, and Investments in associates of US$20.66Mn were the primary drivers of the continued weakness in earnings.
• The declines reflect softer equity market conditions during 2025, particularly in the second half of the year. Notably, Supreme Ventures Limited (SVL), which accounts for 56.3% of MJE’s total portfolio value as at December 2025, declined by 30.1%, contributing to the fair value decline. MJE’s fair value declines were compounded by interest expenses of US$4.19Mn, albeit 25% lower year-on-year. However, this was partly offset by dividend income of US$2.68Mn, which declined by 17.3% year-on-year. Nonetheless, MJE posted a net operating loss of US$29.80Mn.
• Cost discipline remained a silver lining, as operating expenses declined by 14.9% to US$1.72Mn, reflecting lower professional fees, marketing, and management expenses.
• However, with its high concentration in SVL, MJE’s earnings and net asset value (NAV) recovery will be heavily reliant on SVL’s share price movements, despite diversification across 25 listed Main and Junior Market companies. SVL’s price may remain subdued in the short-term, amid expectations of weaker earnings for Q4 2025, following Hurricane Melissa, which caused physical damage, disruptions to its off-track betting network and a 2-day lottery shutdown.
• Ultimately, the medium-term recovery prospects for MJE and its portfolio companies remain linked to an improvement in Jamaica’s equity market conditions. Further monetary policy easing by the Bank of Jamaica, economic recovery post-Melissa and renewed retail and institutional investor participation in the stock market could support valuation recovery across core holdings, though near-term performance is likely to remain sensitive to market sentiment and concentration risk.
• MJE’s stock price has declined by 16.0% year-to-date, closing at $7.35 on Tuesday. At this price, the stock trades at a P/B of 0.67x, which is below the Main Market Financial Sector Average of 1.1x.

(Sources: MJE Financial Statements, NCBCM Research)

• In a keynote address at the Jamaica Stock Exchange's Regional conference, held on January 20, 2026, Prime Minister Andrew Holness outlined a forward-looking framework for national reconstruction following hurricane-related damage.
• The Prime Minister signalled a strategic shift away from simple restoration, emphasising that future reconstruction efforts will focus on “building forward” – incorporating new towns, roads, schools, hospitals, businesses, and supporting infrastructure, rather than merely replacing what previously existed.
• Central to this approach is a renewed emphasis on resilience, with infrastructure planning explicitly designed to withstand future hurricanes and systemic shocks, aligning climate adaptation with long-term economic development objectives.
• Hurricane Melissa (October 2025) is one of the costliest disasters in Jamaica’s history, with the World Bank and IDB estimating US$8.8Bn in direct physical damage – roughly 41% of the country’s 2024 GDP. When including business disruptions and long-term economic shocks, total losses are projected to reach as high as US$20Bn¹.
• To fund post-Melissa recovery, the Government secured a US$6.7Bn international support package from partners like the IMF, World Bank, and IDB. These funds are being channelled through the newly established National Reconstruction and Resilience Authority (NaRRA) to facilitate transparent, resilient project execution.
• Currently, the Government of Jamaica is in the Early Recovery and Reconstruction phase of its recovery, with the Jamaica Public Service (JPS) restoring electricity to 96% of households and the National Water Commission (NWC) reporting 95% service restoration as of early January.

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 ¹ https://www.caribbean-council.org/hurricane-melissas-toll-on-jamaica-could-reach-us20bn/

(Sources: JIS & NCBCM Research)

• Mexico's government outlined a plan on Tuesday to spur 5.6 trillion pesos ($323Bn) in spending on infrastructure and other key areas in public-private partnerships through 2030, which officials said could boost growth above prior estimates as soon as this year.
• Finance Minister Edgar Amador said 722Bn pesos of the total could be allocated to projects this year, helping the economy expand between 2.5% and 3%. In its 2026 budget proposal presented in September, the finance ministry projected growth between 1.8% and 2.8% for the year.
• The new outlook is also above analyst projections. A Mexico central bank poll of private sector analysts on Tuesday forecast 1.3% growth this year and 1.8% in 2027. In 2025, according to preliminary data, growth was 0.7%. Amador added that the goal was to guarantee state ownership and oversight while bringing in private capital to reduce risk.
• President Claudia Sheinbaum, whose administration runs through 2030, said private partners would be selected through public bidding processes, and that the finance, economy and energy ministries would coordinate the projects. The government will take majority control of any joint ventures, which are intended to span projects in energy, trains, highways, ports, healthcare, water, education and airports.
• "This is good for the country because it will allow us to achieve greater development with equity, well-being, social justice and environmental protection," she said at her regular daily press conference.

(Source: Reuters)

• Trinidad and Tobago is in talks with Indian Oil Corporation Ltd to restart the Guaracara oil refinery, Energy Minister Dr Roodal Moonilal noted.
• Prime Minister Kamla Persad-Bissessar met with the chairman of the Refinery Reactivation Committee, Kevin Ramnarine and its members last month to review progress on restarting the former Petrotrin refinery.
• On Thursday, Moonilal led a delegation from this country in a series of bilateral meetings and an exhibition tour, engaging with several international energy companies. The delegation included the chairman of Guaracara Refining Company Ltd, Gowtam Maharaj, the chairman of Heritage Petroleum Company Ltd, Kurt Ramlal and the acting senior chemical engineer at the Energy Ministry, Terrance Ali.
• “During these discussions, Minister Moonilal and the delegation shared insights into Trinidad and Tobago’s energy sector, highlighting the country’s upstream potential and the Government’s plans to restart the Pointe-à-Pierre Refinery,” a release from the Energy Ministry stated.
• Moonilal also told Reuters that while the country would consider resuming imports of Venezuelan crude once the refinery is operational, Moonilal said the immediate focus of engagement with Caracas remains the development of shared offshore gas resources. It was also noted that direct negotiations are preferred for awarding exploration blocks, citing their speed compared with bidding rounds. Trinidad and Tobago last month missed its own deadline to award three deepwater blocks to China National Offshore Oil Corporation (CNOOC).
• The Ministry of Energy’s permanent secretary, Karinsa Tulsie, told Reuters she could not comment on the reasons for the delay. US oil major ExxonMobil was awarded an ultra-deepwater block through direct negotiations in August last year. The Government has also approached Chevron to gauge interest in offshore exploration and is holding talks with global companies, including TotalEnergies, which is developing a deepwater discovery in neighbouring Suriname, he added.

(Source: Trinidad Express)