• For April 2026, net remittance inflows to Jamaica declined by 0.8% year-over-year to US$274.5Mn, according to the Bank of Jamaica (BOJ). The decrease reflected a 0.5% (US$1.4Mn) reduction in total remittance inflows, compounded by a 5.1% (US$1.0Mn) increase in remittance outflows. The decline in inflows was mainly due to lower receipts through the Other Remittances channel^[1], partly offset by stronger inflows via remittance companies.
• The United States (U.S.) remained the largest source market for remittances, accounting for 68.8% of total inflows, unchanged from April 2025. Other key source markets were the United Kingdom (11.1%), Canada (8.5%), and the Cayman Islands (6.4%).
• That said, Year to date (January–April 2026), net remittance inflows have increased by 3.3% to US$1.07Bn, supported by a 3.2% (US$35.6Mn) rise in total remittance inflows, despite a 1.7% (US$1.3Mn) increase in remittance outflows. Total remittance inflows for the same period amounted to US$1.15Bn, representing a 3.2% increase relative to the corresponding period of 2025, highlighting continued resilience in remittance receipts despite the slight decline recorded in April.
• Compared with regional peers, Jamaica’s 3.2% growth in remittance inflows trailed Guatemala (10.5%) and El Salvador (7.2%) but exceeded Mexico’s 2.2% increase over the January–April 2026 period.
• Looking ahead, the BOJ expects remittance inflows to remain supportive over the medium term, underpinned by continued digital adoption, enhanced payment infrastructure, and diversified remittance channels. This should help support Jamaica's current account balance, even as the merchandise trade deficit is expected to widen due to higher imports associated with hurricane recovery efforts.
• However, there are downside risks, including a gradual slowdown in U.S. economic growth and easing labour market conditions, which could temper migrant income growth and, consequently, remittance inflows.

(Sources: Bank of Jamaica & NCBCM Research)

^[1] ‘Other Remittances’ refers to any remittance activity occurring outside of traditional remittance companies, for example transfers via deposit taking institutions.

• HDF Energy, a French renewable energy company, has acquired land in Jamaica to develop a utility-scale solar, hydrogen, and battery storage project that will support the country's clean energy transition.
• The proposed facility is expected to include more than 160 MW of solar generation, integrated with battery and hydrogen storage to provide reliable electricity, including during non-daylight hours.
• HDF Energy has launched preliminary environmental and social assessments to evaluate the project's environmental impact and potential connection to Jamaica's electricity grid. The project location has not yet been disclosed.
• The company is inviting expressions of interest from qualified organisations for financing, construction, operations, and other project roles to identify potential partners for future development phases.
• The project supports Jamaica's target of generating 50% of its electricity from renewable sources by 2030 and aligns with HDF Energy's broader renewable energy expansion across the Caribbean.
• While the project remains in the early planning stage and is not yet a formal procurement process, it could position HDF Energy to participate in future renewable energy tenders as Jamaica expands its clean energy market
• The development, one of the largest renewable energy projects proposed in Jamaica to date, would significantly accelerate the country’s push toward its 50% clean energy goal by 2030 through the addition of over 160 MW of peak solar capacity. More broadly, it promises to elevate the national dialogue on lowering electricity costs, stabilising the power grid, and reducing Jamaica's long-term reliance on expensive imported fossil fuels.

(Sources: AdvanceH2 & NCBCM Research)

• The administration of U.S. President Donald Trump announced Thursday that it will impose a 12.5% tariff on imports from the Dominican Republic, part of a broader trade action affecting 60 countries and economies over what Washington says are insufficient efforts to combat forced labour.
• The new duty, announced by U.S. Trade Representative Jamieson Greer, will replace the temporary 10% global tariff that expires Friday, marking the latest escalation of the Trump administration’s trade policy.
• According to the U.S. Trade Representative’s office, the tariffs follow investigations launched in March under Section 301 of the U.S. Trade Act, which examined whether the affected countries’ policies related to preventing imports made with forced labour harmed U.S. workers and businesses.
• In Latin America, Mexico, Guatemala, Honduras, and El Salvador will face a 10% tariff, while Costa Rica, Panama, and the Dominican Republic will be subject to a 12.5% duty. Tariff rates for other countries vary depending on the product and country of origin.
• The administration said the investigations concluded that the identified practices justified new trade measures. The move comes after the U.S. Supreme Court invalidated most of Trump’s previous global tariffs, prompting the White House to rely on Section 301 as the legal basis for imposing new import duties.
• The latest tariffs are part of Trump’s broader trade agenda since returning to office in January 2025, using targeted measures to reshape U.S. trade policy and increase pressure on trading partners.

(Source: Dominican Today)

• Oil prices settled above US$100 per barrel on Thursday, July 23, 2026, for the first time since May. The increase followed Houthi attacks on two Saudi oil tankers in the Red Sea, worsening global supply disruptions after a near-halt in trade through the Strait of Hormuz.
• Brent futures finished up US$6.62, or 7.0%, at US$100.69 per barrel, marking their highest close since May 22, 2026. The global crude oil benchmark is now nearly 40% higher than when the Iran war began in February, with almost all of its gains coming this month.
• U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude closed up US$5.36, or 6.2%, at US$92.19 per barrel, its highest close since June 4. The rise reflects mounting concerns over restricted tanker traffic and the rapid drawdown of global oil supplies.
• Yemen’s Houthis have opened a new front in the Iran war by targeting vessels carrying Saudi oil through the Bab el-Mandeb Strait after announcing a naval blockade on shipments from Saudi Arabia. The group said it attacked two Saudi tankers, while Saudi Arabia confirmed that one vessel was ablaze following an assault in the Red Sea.
• Iranian attacks on vessels crossing the strait and the reintroduction of a U.S. naval blockade targeting Iranian ports have sharply reduced oil traffic. Iranian oil loadings have likely fallen to zero from 1.5 million–2.0 million barrels per day at the start of July, while Gulf loading activity declined to 2.5 million barrels per day over the past seven days, compared with 6.0 million barrels per day over the previous 30 days.
• Analysts estimate that the Strait of Hormuz and Bab el-Mandeb carry the equivalent of roughly one-quarter of the global oil supply. According to Goldman Sachs, Brent could exceed US$120 per barrel in the fourth quarter and average US$100 in 2027 if the Strait of Hormuz remains disrupted, with further upside if the Bab el-Mandeb Strait and Suez Canal also experience persistent disruptions.

(Source: Reuters)

• Investors are increasingly preparing for the Federal Reserve (Fed) to hike interest rates as oil prices climb.  According to CME’s FedWatch tool, Fed funds futures are pricing in a roughly 82% likelihood that the central bank raises borrowing costs at its September policy meeting, up from below 53% a week earlier.
• The Fed is still broadly expected to keep interest rates unchanged at the current 3.50%-3.75% range at its meeting next week. However, expectations of an earlier increase are also rising, with futures indicating a nearly 38% probability of a quarter-percentage-point hike, up from less than 12% a week ago.
• Thursday’s initial jobless claims data strengthened the view that the Fed can focus more on inflation, which could accelerate as energy prices climb, than on the health of the labour market. Initial jobless claims fell to 187,000 in the week ended July 18, the lowest level since 1969.
• Rising expectations for a rate increase, alongside higher oil prices and Treasury yields, added to downward pressure on the stock market. The two-year U.S. Treasury yield also rose about five basis points to 4.351%.
• Despite the shift in market expectations, economists’ outlook does not point to tighter monetary policy through 2026. According to financial data and analytics company FactSet, the consensus forecast remains that the Fed will not raise rates this year, while economists expect the central bank to lower borrowing costs by half a percentage point in 2027.

(Source: CNBC)

• Consumer confidence fell 2.3% in the second quarter of 2026, reversing part of the previous quarter's gains, while business confidence increased 2.3% after a 6.5% decline in the first quarter, according to the Market Research Services (MRS) Business and Consumer Confidence Survey.
• MRS Chairman Don Anderson said households are becoming more cautious due to weaker economic conditions, including the lingering effects of Hurricane Melissa, a reported 4% contraction in the economy compared with the same period in 2025, higher fuel prices linked to conflict in the Middle East, and ongoing inflationary pressures.
• Although business confidence improved slightly, it remains below pre-Hurricane Melissa levels. Anderson noted that businesses continue to view it as a reasonable time to invest and expand, reflecting a more stable long-term outlook despite current economic challenges.
• Anderson explained that the decline in consumer confidence is typical after a general election, as the optimism driven by campaign promises fades and consumers adopt a more realistic assessment of economic conditions. The survey also highlighted growing concerns over declining remittances and rising energy costs, both of which are affecting household finances.
• Overall, the data suggests consumers are becoming more cautious about spending as economic uncertainty persists, while businesses are showing greater confidence in future recovery. Consequently, consumer spending may remain subdued in the near term, even as businesses position themselves for longer-term growth.

(Sources: Jamaica Gleaner & NCBCM Research)

• The Government of Jamaica (GO) has announced an aggregate J$25.0Bn benchmark bond offering through the Bank of Jamaica (BOJ) to support financing for the 2026/27 Budget. The auction opens on Friday, July 24, with bids accepted between 9:00 a.m. and 2:00 p.m., while settlement is scheduled for Tuesday, July 28, 2026.
• The offering comprises three fixed-rate benchmark investment notes across the medium- and long-term yield curve: J$16.0Bn through the reopening of the 9.625% Benchmark Investment Note due November 21, 2031; J$5.0Bn through the issuance of a new 7.50% Benchmark Investment Note due February 28, 2035; and J$4.0Bn through the reopening of the 8.25% Benchmark Investment Note due March 18, 2040.
• The 2031 note carries a 9.625% fixed coupon, matures on November 21, 2031, and will make its first interest payment on November 23, 2026, with semi-annual coupon payments thereafter on May 23 and November 23. The 2035 note offers a 7.50% fixed coupon and matures on February 28, 2035, with the first coupon payable on August 28, 2026, followed by semi-annual payments on February 28 and August 28. Meanwhile, the 2040 note pays a fixed coupon of 8.25%, matures on March 18, 2040, and will make its first interest payment on September 18, 2026, before reverting to semi-annual payments every March 18 and September 18.
• All three securities are available with a minimum investment of J$1,000, with pricing and yields determined through competitive bidding. Non-competitive allocations have been capped at J$800Mn for the 2031 note, J$250Mn for the 2035 note, and J$200Mn for the 2040 note.  The notes are taxable, registered and transferable, and will be held electronically through the JamClear-CSD at the Bank of Jamaica. They will not qualify as regulatory liquid assets, and payments due on non-business days will be made on the next business day.
• The Government's increased presence in domestic capital market in recent months reflects the increased financing requirements arising from the extensive damage caused by Hurricane Melissa and the associated disruption to tax and other revenues. The suspension of the fiscal rule that followed, temporarily halted the debt reduction framework aimed at lowering the debt-to-GDP ratio to 60% and has provided the Government with greater flexibility to increase borrowing to finance reconstruction efforts and to close the funding gap.
• Recent data from the Ministry of Finance and the Public Service (MOFPS) indicate that Jamaica's fiscal position has softened in the early months of FY2026/27, as the economic effects of Hurricane Melissa continue to weigh on revenue inflows. The Central Government recorded a fiscal deficit of J$19.72Bn during the April–May period, significantly exceeding the budgeted deficit of J$11.46Bn. Against this backdrop, the aggregate J$25.0Bn benchmark bond offerings across the three tenors form part of the Government's broader financing strategy to meet its budgetary requirements while supporting ongoing recovery and reconstruction efforts.

(Source: Bank of Jamaica & NCBCM Research)

• Suriname plans to use workforce and industry data to shape a local content strategy that prepares citizens and businesses for opportunities from the country’s expanding offshore oil sector.
• Oil, Gas and Environment Minister Patrick Brunings said local participation must be grounded in a clear understanding of the skills, services and workforce numbers required by energy projects, with that data guiding education and training adjustments.
• The strategy comes as Suriname prepares for GranMorgu, its first offshore oil development. TotalEnergies and APA Corporation approved the Block 58 project in October 2024, with investment estimated at around US$10.5Bn and first oil targeted for 2028.
• The project will develop the Sapakara and Krabdagu fields, located about 150 kilometres offshore, using a floating production, storage and offloading vessel with capacity of 220,000 barrels per day.
• Brunings said the government’s priorities include building national capability, strengthening institutions, planning infrastructure, improving safety and environmental management, and ensuring petroleum development supports wider economic value rather than creating an isolated enclave economy.

(Source: OilNOW)

• British inflation cooled by more than expected in June as a brief de-escalation in the Iran war reduced fuel prices. Consumer prices rose by 2.6% year over year, the weakest increase since March 2025 and down from 2.8% in May, compared with economists’ expectations for a smaller decline to 2.7%.
• Motor fuel prices fell month over month for the first time since the US-Iran war began in late February, while manufacturers’ input costs declined by 2.0% from May. Britain’s headline inflation rate was also lower than the 3.5% recorded in the United States and the euro zone’s 2.8%.
• However, the conflict in the Gulf has reignited this month, pushing up energy costs, and analysts said the June inflation reading was likely to prove the low point for the year. The Bank of England (BoE), which has a 2% inflation target, expects inflation to rise to 3% in the third quarter.
• Food prices were 1.6% higher than a year earlier, easing from a 2.1% increase in May. Since taking office on Monday, July 20, 2026, Prime Minister Andy Burnham’s government has announced a cut in tax on energy bills and a lower cap on bus fares as it seeks to ease living costs.
• Underlying price pressures remained relatively muted, with services inflation slowing to 3.6% in June from 3.7% in May, however, this was slightly above economists’ forecast of 3.5%. Core inflation, which excludes food, energy, alcohol and tobacco, held at 2.6%.
• Investors expect the BoE to keep its benchmark interest rate at 3.75% next week as it continues to assess the impact of the Middle East conflict. Financial markets continue to price in one or possibly two 25-basis-point interest rate increases by the end of 2026.

(Source: Reuters)

• Japan’s imports jumped to a record high in June as a weak yen and soaring oil prices drove up import costs and inflation, leaving the Bank of Japan (BOJ) in a policy bind. The value of imports surged 25.4% year over year to ¥11.3Tn ($69.25Bn), exceeding forecasts for a 21% increase and marking the fastest growth since November 2022.
• Crude oil was the main driver of the increase. Although import volumes fell 13.7% from a year earlier, the value of crude oil purchases soared 59.3%, with the yen-denominated unit cost climbing to a record high. Japan also increased purchases from the United States and Russia as declines in imports from the Middle East moderated.
• The swelling import bill has become a growing concern for policymakers, with the yen’s weakness amplifying inflationary pressures even as officials seek to safeguard a fragile economic recovery. The BOJ is widely expected to leave interest rates unchanged next week but maintain its tightening bias as higher energy costs and a weak currency continue to fuel inflation risks.
• Exports increased 19.3% year over year in June, exceeding forecasts for an 18.6% gain and accelerating from 16.8% in May. Growth was supported by the weak yen and strong demand linked to AI-related data centres, while exports to the United States rose 13% on solid demand for fuel-efficient hybrid vehicles.
• Despite strong export growth, Japan recorded a larger-than-expected trade deficit of ¥406.9Bn ($2.49Bn), compared with forecasts for a ¥120Bn deficit. Renewed hostilities between Iran and the US have also raised concerns that prolonged instability could weigh on global economic activity and increase the risk of a broader slowdown.

(Source: Reuters)