• Despite a 2.9% year-on-year contraction in Q2 2026, seasonally adjusted quarter-over-quarter (q-o-q) GDP data suggest that Jamaica's economy continues to rebound from Hurricane Melissa. According to BMI analysts, the economy grew 1.2% q-o-q, on a seasonally adjusted^[1] basis, matching expectations. Therefore, while strong base effects from 2025 and a downward structural shift from Hurricane Melissa will see year-on-year (y-o-y) contractions through Q3 2026, the country’s seasonally adjusted GDP data reveal an economy making progress in its recovery.
• This recovery has been supported by domestic commerce, which recovered ground lost from the hurricane by Q2 2026, with the level returning to its pre-storm mark. Additionally, manufacturing, hospitality, and agriculture have seen consecutive improvements over the previous quarter through H1 2026. While Jamaica's total employment has yet to rebound to pre-hurricane levels, the labour market added jobs in Q2 2026 (+29.4k) for the first time since landfall and the unemployment rate remained low (3.7%). This has supported domestic consumption, a key pillar of the economy. Alongside these labour market gains, remittance flows in 2026 through July have strengthened relative to 2025, supporting incomes, while private credit growth nudged up in Q2 – all positives for domestic demand.
• Looking ahead, recovery momentum is expected to continue to moderate in H2 2026 and into 2027 as external headwinds continue to blow, with growth forecast at -1.0% in 2026 and 2.3% in 2027. Signs of this moderation are already evident, although the domestic trade sector has proven resilient. Sequential growth, or q-o-q growth, slowed markedly in Q2 (from +1.0% in Q1 to +0.4%), consistent with rising inflation eroding real wages, against still-depressed employment, and tempering household spending into mid-2026.
• Most sectors also saw slowing growth in Q2 versus the prior quarter. On a y-o-y basis, mining (-26.1%) and agriculture (-15.2%) continued to underperform, alongside weakness in hospitality (-12.3%), utilities (-4.2%), and transportation (-6.1%). This revealed a broad-based cooling as mining fell, tourism arrivals remained capacity-constrained, and agricultural output stayed below pre-hurricane levels amid productivity challenges, likely due to the areas hardest hit by Hurricane Melissa, with El Niño-related dry conditions adding further pressure.
• Meanwhile, although remittances remain above 2025 levels year-to-date, the post-hurricane surge has faded and growth is now slowing. With global prices rising, the US growth outlook moderating, and US immigration enforcement continuing at pace alongside changes in remittance policy, we see scope for these flows to ease further, a headwind to consumption.
•  Adding to these external pressures, BMI's Global team now expects the US-Iran conflict to extend into next year, with a preliminary deal anticipated in Q1 2027 and Brent crude forecast to average US$107/barrel in Q4 2026 and US$112/barrel in Q1 2027. As a net energy importer, Jamaica is particularly exposed to elevated oil prices, which will prolong inflationary pressures. Furthermore, the Bank of Jamaica raised its policy rate by 50bps in September 2026, with additional hikes expected through year-end, which will weigh on consumption and investment, while a strong El Niño continues to affect agriculture and mining.
• Despite these headwinds, growth is slated to pick up in 2027, as ongoing recovery efforts and increased government fiscal stimulus coincide with the restoration of hotel capacity, the easing of Melissa-related challenges in mining and agriculture and rising electricity consumption as grid capacity is restored. Nevertheless, risks remain tilted to the downside, with longer-than-expected tensions in the Middle East likely to weigh on domestic demand and global demand for Jamaican tourism and exports, while storm activity in the Caribbean remains an ongoing threat.

(Source: BMI, a Fitch Solutions Company)

^[1] Seasonal adjustment is applied to time series data to decompose the underlying trends, business cycle and short-run movements in the series. It is used to identify and adjust for the different components of the time series. Once the components of the series have been identified, the seasonal adjustment removes the impact of the seasonal and calendar components, thus better displaying the underlying trend.

• On October 8, 2026, Honey Bun (1982) Limited (HONBUN) officially opened its new manufacturing facility at the MJS Industrial and Technology Park in Spanish Town, St. Catherine. The 60,000-square-foot facility represents an investment of more than J$1.00Bn and serves as the home of the company's 'Shorty Bread' product line, while its other products continue to be manufactured at its Retirement Crescent location in Kingston.
• The Jamaica Manufacturers and Exporters Association (JMEA) hosted a tour of the facility, attended by Minister of Industry, Investment and Commerce, Senator Aubyn Hill. He commended the company's investment in solar technology to power its operations, noting that it helps to reduce the country's dependence on expensive imported fossil fuels.
• Chief Executive Officer Daniel Chong noted that the company now operates production lines across two facilities, and that relocating the bread production line to Spanish Town has enabled it to expand its production capacity. He described the facility as a significant investment in expanding the company's manufacturing capacity and creating room for future opportunities. Honey Bun employs nearly 1,000 people across its operations.
• The new facility positions Honey Bun to meet higher demand for its Shorty Bread line and frees up space at its Kingston location for other product lines and future expansion. Solar-powered operations could also improve cost efficiency by reducing reliance on grid electricity and limiting exposure to fuel-driven increases in energy cost, potentially supporting profit margins. Together, these investments could support revenue growth and improved profitability over time, although the benefits will depend on demand keeping pace with the additional capacity and outweighing higher operating and depreciation costs
• HONBUN’s recent share price rally proved short-lived. Between September 30 and October 8, 2026, the stock climbed to J$7.67, approaching its 52-week high of J$7.88, before retreating to J$5.96 on October 12. It subsequently recovered to J$6.24 on Tuesday, October 13, down 12.0% year to date. At this closing price, HONBUN trades at a P/E of 156.0x, substantially above the Junior Market manufacturing sector average of 20.3x.

(Sources: JIS, NCBCM Research)

• The International Monetary Fund trimmed its growth forecasts for Latin America ‌and the Caribbean for this year and next and said most of the region was getting little lift from the artificial intelligence boom that has helped other economies absorb the energy shock from the Middle East war.
• In its World Economic Outlook, released early on Tuesday, the Fund projected regional ​growth of 2.3% this year. That is down from 2.5% in 2025 and from its July forecast of 2.4% ​for 2026. The IMF cut its 2027 forecast to 2.5% from 2.7%.
• The regional downgrades come even ⁠as the Fund nudged up its world growth forecast for this year to 3.1% from July's 3.0%, crediting rerouted energy supplies and ​AI-driven investment for the resilience of what it calls a split global economy.
• The Middle East war has turned energy into a global inflation ​shock, with Brent crude about 45% above its prewar level. Higher fuel and power costs are squeezing households and businesses, while fears of persistent inflation have helped push global borrowing costs to multidecade highs. In Latin America, the IMF said the energy shock's effect depends on whether gains for commodity exporters outweigh losses ​for energy importers and on how credible central banks' inflation targets are, adding that "there is little offset from the technology upturn in ​most countries."
• Of the three Latin American economies the IMF listed separately in its July World Economic Outlook update, Argentina took the deepest cut in its ‌output ⁠ The Fund now expects Argentine growth to slow to 2.1% this year from 4.5% in 2025, well below the 3.5% it forecast in July, and it lowered its 2027 forecast to 3.5% from 4.0%. The report shows inflation is forecast to fall to 32.5% this year from 41.9% in 2025.
• The IMF cut Brazil’s growth forecast to 2.2% for 2026 and raised Mexico’s to 1.5%. It expects Chile’s growth to slow to 0.6%, Bolivia’s economy to shrink 3.0% and Venezuela’s inflation to climb to 467.9%. It warned that risks remain tilted to the downside from market turmoil.

(Source: Reuters)

• The International Monetary Fund (IMF) urged the UK to stay the course on its deficit-reduction plans ahead of Finance Minister John Healey’s October 28 Budget. The IMF singled out Britain as the only major advanced economy with clear plans to reduce government borrowing over the coming years.
• The government, which recorded a budget deficit of 4.4% of GDP last year, aims to balance day-to-day spending with tax revenue by the 2029/30 financial year. However, the IMF warned against slippage as higher debt-interest costs and pressure to increase spending on defence and energy subsidies weigh on the fiscal outlook.
• At the same time, the IMF upgraded its UK growth forecast for 2026 to 1.3%, from 1.0% in July and 0.8% in April. Growth is expected to slow to 1.2% in 2027 as higher energy prices and long-term interest rates weigh on consumption and investment.
• Despite the planned fiscal consolidation, UK government borrowing costs remain the highest among G7 economies and recently reached their highest level since 1998 amid a broader global bond-market sell-off. The Bank of England (BoE) also expects the surge in energy prices to push inflation above 4% early next year.
• Meanwhile, BoE policymaker Megan Greene noted that the stronger growth outlook reinforced her view that the current 3.75% policy rate is not sufficiently restrictive. Markets are pricing a 90% probability of a rate increase after the BoE’s November meeting and expect a further three increases in 2027.
• The UK’s stronger 2026 growth outlook provides some near-term resilience, but elevated borrowing costs and energy prices are expected to weigh on consumption and investment in 2027. This leaves policymakers balancing the need to maintain fiscal discipline with the risk that tighter fiscal and monetary conditions increasingly constrain growth.

(Source: Reuters)

• Oil prices were mixed on Tuesday as ​hopes that the US-Russia diesel deal could free up more supplies from Moscow offset attacks in Saudi Arabia and Yemen that could result in ‌additional supply disruptions. Brent futures settled at $105.69 per barrel, down 96 cents, or 0.9% from Monday, which was its highest settlement since September 15. US West Texas Intermediate crude futures rose 40 cents, or 0.4%, to settle at $94.14, the highest close for WTI since September 24.
• ⁠Regarding the potential increase in Russian supplies, the Kremlin said it did not ​see any direct link between a deal on exporting Russian diesel to the US and Moscow's stance on the Ukraine peace talks. This comment came after US President Donald Trump's envoys reportedly had told Ukrainian officials on Friday that the deal to allow Russian diesel exports was ​part of an attempt to draw Russia back into negotiations over a possible peace settlement in Ukraine.
• Russia was the world's third-biggest crude oil producer behind the US and Saudi ​Arabia in 2025, according to US energy data. Sanctions designed to keep Russian energy out of global markets have helped support oil prices since Russia invaded Ukraine in 2022. Any deal to end the Russia-Ukraine war could allow Russia to export more energy.
• Meanwhile, supply risks in the Middle East remained elevated. Yemen's Iran-allied Houthis said Saudi Arabia was attacking the Yemeni capital Sanaa on Tuesday after a Saudi-led coalition warned civilians to stay away from an oil depot on the city outskirts, part of a rapidly escalating war between the sides. Concerns over the ​vulnerability of Gulf energy infrastructure and shipping ​lanes remained in focus after Iran-aligned ⁠Houthis struck Riyadh's international airport over the weekend, while tanker attacks were reported near the Strait of Hormuz.
• In response to these attacks, Trump on Tuesday accused Yemen's Houthi militants of deliberately trying to drive up ​oil prices ahead of the US midterm elections and warned that he would "never forget" their attacks on Saudi Arabia, amid ​a widening regional conflict ⁠fueled by the US war with Iran.
• Despite ongoing disruptions of shipments through the Strait of Hormuz during the Iran war, oil producer group OPEC+, which includes OPEC and allies like Russia, posted a sharp gain in production in September, OPEC said on Tuesday, driven by an increase from Saudi Arabia. About 20% of global oil supplies passed through the Strait of Hormuz ⁠before the ​US and Israel attacked Iran in February.
• OPEC also lowered its ​forecast for 2026 oil demand growth for a sixth straight month, and raised its forecast for next year, citing the need for the world to rebuild inventories depleted by the Iran war.

(Source: Reuters)

• Contrasting earnings trends and valuations place dividend sustainability and growth prospects in focus for Jamaica Stock Exchange (JSE) investors this week. Caribbean Cement Company Limited (CCC) and Blue Power Group Limited (BPOW) announced that they will make dividend payments against the background of markedly different earnings performances. Meanwhile, shareholder meetings at Mayberry Jamaican Equities Limited (MJE), Mayberry Group Limited (MGL) and Wisynco Group Limited (WISYNCO) provide opportunities for updates on their strategy and managements’ outlook for the companies.
• CCC heads into its dividend payment this week supported by strong earnings growth and a market valuation that is below its sector peers. The company will pay J$2.0854 per share on Thursday, October 15, to shareholders on record as at August 28, 2026, marginally below the J$2.0979 paid in the comparable period last year. This follows a 126.4% increase in net profit to J$5.75Bn for the six months ended June 2026, driven by higher revenue, improved operating efficiency and lower costs relative to the maintenance-heavy first half of 2025.
• Despite an 11.8% year-to-date share price gain, CCC trades at 10.61x earnings, below the energy, materials and industrials peer average of 16.28x. Its stronger operating performance and comparatively low earnings multiple suggest scope for further upside if earnings momentum is sustained.
• BPOW, on the other hand, maintained its dividend payment even as it pursues initiatives to rebuild profitability. The company will pay J$0.10 per share on Friday, October 16, to shareholders on record as at September 30, matching the comparable payment last year. Despite a 21.7% year-to-date share price decline, BPOW trades at 51.77x earnings, above the Junior Market manufacturing peer average of 19.45x. Looking ahead, cost efficiencies, expansion into higher-volume customer accounts and the launch of higher-margin speciality products offer avenues for earnings recovery, with successful execution important to supporting its valuation.
• MJE and MGL’s shareholder meetings this week will provide an opportunity for shareholders to hear management outline strategic priorities and plans to strengthen shareholder returns. Both meetings are scheduled for Tuesday, October 13, with MJE at 10:00 a.m. and MGL at 2:30 p.m. The companies’ shares have declined 16.2% and 30.3%, respectively, since the start of the year. MJE trades at a price-to-book ratio of 0.83x, matching the financial sector peer average, while MGL trades below that multiple at 0.57x. Stronger profitability and sustained growth in asset values could support renewed investor interest, particularly given both companies are trading at discounts to book value.
• WISYNCO’s shareholder meeting this week offers an opportunity to highlight the growth initiatives supporting its premium valuation relative to peers. The meeting is scheduled for Friday, October 16, at 11:00 a.m., with updates on plans to drive sales performance, operating efficiency and returns on investment likely to be useful in assessing its earnings outlook. WISYNCO’s shares have gained 10.3% year to date and trade at 18.84x earnings, above the distribution and manufacturing peer average of 13.53x. Continued sales growth and improved profitability would help support this valuation and provide a foundation for further shareholder value creation.

(Sources: JSE & NCBCM Research)

• On October 9, 2026, Caribbean Information and Credit Rating Services Limited (CariCRIS) reaffirmed the issuer/corporate credit ratings of National Commercial Bank Jamaica Limited (NCBJ) at CariA (foreign currency) and CariA+ (local currency) on the regional scale, denoting good creditworthiness, and at jmAA+ on the Jamaica national scale, denoting high creditworthiness. The stable outlook reflects the expectation that, over the next 12 to 15 months, NCBJ will retain its dominant position in the Jamaican financial services sector, sustain revenue and profitability growth, remain well capitalised and comfortably meet its financial obligations.
• The ratings are supported by the bank's franchise strength and balance sheet quality. Key strengths include NCBJ's strong brand equity, wide distribution network and diversified funding base, with a good mix of stable retail deposits, alongside good asset quality. The ratings are further underpinned by sustained revenue growth, a significant improvement in profitability over the last 12 months, comfortable capitalisation and sound risk management practices. However, the ratings are tempered by NCBJ's high reliance on the Jamaican economy, where most of its earnings, assets and funding are domiciled.
• NCBJ is the largest commercial bank in Jamaica by assets and a wholly owned subsidiary of NCB Financial Group Limited (NCBFG), which is majority-owned by AIC (Barbados) Limited (47.88% as at June 2026). The bank now has six wholly owned active subsidiaries, operating primarily in the securities industry, following the sale of NCB (Cayman) Limited effective August 31, 2026.
• The reaffirmation comes as NCBFG continues its internal restructuring, reorganising the group's expertise and resources into dedicated Centres of Excellence to strengthen capital and operational efficiency, reduce duplication and unlock synergies across its subsidiaries. Internationally, NCBJ is rated BB- by S&P, with a positive outlook since October 2025, and BB- by Fitch, with a stable outlook since February 2026.

(Source: CariCRIS)

• Trinidad and Tobago’s natural gas liquids (NGL) production rose for a second straight year to about 18,000 b/d in 2025, up from 16,000 b/d in 2024 and 14,000 b/d in 2023, marking the first back-to-back annual gains in the Energy Institute’s 2015–2025 series.
• Phoenix Park Gas Processors (PPGPL) reported a similar improvement, with NGL output up 7.7% to 17,318 b/d, as production of propane, butane and natural gasoline all increased. This growth came despite a 7.7% decline in gas volumes reaching Point Lisas, as a 29.1% rise in NGL volumes from Atlantic to 7,472 b/d, along with high plant availability, offset weaker gas processing output.
• By contrast, the 2024 gains were driven by higher gas volumes, a 9.6% improvement in NGL content and better plant uptime, which lifted PPGPL’s production by 16.7% to 16,086 b/d.
• PPGPL operates the country’s only gas processing and NGL fractionation facility, with a capacity of 70,000 b/d, and sells propane and butane as cooking gas locally, regionally and internationally, while natural gasoline is exported.
• Despite the gains in gas production, 2025 output remains about 40% below the 30,000 b/d recorded in 2015, with Atlantic playing a larger role in total supply as gas availability at Point Lisas stays constrained.

(Source: Trinidad & Tobago Guardian)

• The IMF projects Guyana’s Natural Resource Fund could reach US$34.9Bn, or about 69% of GDP, by 2031 under current withdrawal rules, a much stronger outlook than its 2025 forecast of US$13.3Bn (over 32% of GDP) by 2030.
• The upgrade reflects Guyana’s rising share of oil profits as cost-recovery payments to oil companies decline, after ExxonMobil recovered about US$55Bn in costs for the first six Stabroek developments by mid-2026, roughly two years early, helped by higher crude prices linked to the Middle East conflict.
• Under the Stabroek Block production sharing agreement, up to 75% of petroleum produced each month can be allocated to recover eligible costs. The remaining profit oil is divided equally between Guyana and the contractors, while the government also receives a 2% royalty.
• As recoverable costs decline, less oil is needed for cost recovery, increasing the government's share of production and revenue. However, new developments and ongoing operations continue to generate recoverable expenses. The IMF's latest outlook also anticipates further production growth. Three additional developments - Uaru, Whiptail and Hammerhead - are expected to help lift Guyana's oil output.
• The Fund reported that the NRF had already accumulated approximately US$4.9Bn by the end of August 2026. The US$34.9Bn projection remains dependent on factors including future oil prices, production, petroleum revenue and government withdrawals. The IMF has urged Guyana to maintain a long-term fiscal strategy that balances present development needs with savings for future generations.

(Source: Oil Now Guyana)

• European households and industries face at least another year of high gas prices, even if the Iran war is resolved and winter proves mild, as the continent will need ​to rebuild gas storage reserves from record-low levels.
• The Middle East conflict has sharply reduced LNG exports from Qatar and the United Arab Emirates, with flows through the Strait of Hormuz remaining well below pre-war levels. This has forced European buyers to compete more aggressively for alternative cargoes, supporting higher wholesale gas prices.
• Against this backdrop, European natural gas prices have risen more than 150% so far in 2026, while gas storage in the region is expected to be only 75% - 78% full by November 1, around 10 percentage points below the five-year average. This leaves Europe more exposed to a cold winter or further supply disruptions and could require substantial restocking next year.
• Higher wholesale costs are already feeding through to consumers, particularly in Germany and the UK, and further increases are possible as household and business supply contracts are renewed. Elevated gas prices could also add pressure to inflation and energy-intensive European industries.
• Looking ahead, Europe’s dependence on alternative LNG supplies could increase further from 2027, when the European Union’s (EU) planned ban on Russian LNG imports takes effect. This could further complicate efforts to rebuild depleted inventories.
• Europe’s low storage position means that the impact of the current supply shock could extend beyond this winter. The need to rebuild inventories while Russian LNG is phased out could sustain competition for global cargoes and keep gas prices elevated even if Middle East supply disruptions ease, prolonging pressure on inflation, households and energy-intensive industries.

(Source: Reuters)