• Jamaica’s trade deficit widened in 2025 by US$490.5Mn to -US$5,871.5Mn, as a broad-based contraction in domestic export sectors collided with rising domestic demand for imported raw materials and consumer goods. This dynamic pushed the export-to-import coverage ratio down to 22.0% (from 26.2% in 2024), meaning Jamaica earned only US$0.22 for every US$1.00 spent on imports.
• The total value of imports for January to December 2025 increased by 3.2% to US$7.52Bn. This growth was largely driven by a 10.5% increase in Raw Materials/Intermediate Goods to US$2.24Bn, heavily fueled by a 13.5% rise in industrial supplies like inorganic chemicals and a 10.2% rise in construction materials like iron and steel. Consumer Goods Imports also rose 6.2% to US$2,112.8Mn, primarily due to a 9.6% jump in food for household consumption. Conversely, spending on Fuels and Lubricants provided some offset, declining by 7.5% to US$1,744.0Mn.
• Meanwhile, for the full calendar year, total exports contracted by 13.4% to US$1.65Bn due to a 20.4% fall in the value of Crude Material (ext. fuels). Domestic exports declined by 12.4%, dragged down by underperformance across all major producing industries. Mining and Quarrying earnings fell 21.1%, driven by a 25.8% drop in Alumina to US$534.5Mn, despite Bauxite increasing 27.3%. Agriculture earnings dropped 19.1% due to reduced exports of yams and other root crops, while Manufacturing declined 4.5%, largely due to Refined Petroleum Products (-10.1%), though Food, Beverages, and Tobacco saw a slight 1.7% uptick.
• Jamaica’s top five trading partners in 2025 were the United States, China, Brazil, Japan and Trinidad and Tobago. Combined imports from these countries totalled approximately US$4.7Bn, representing a 5.1% increase compared with 2024.
• On the export side, Jamaica’s main markets were the United States, Russian Federation, Iceland, Canada and the Netherlands. Total earnings from these countries fell by 20.0% to US$1,149Mn.
• In terms of key trading blocs, the value of imports under USMCA¹ and the European Union (EU) declined to US$3,123.1Mn and US$5945Mn, respectively. On the other hand, imports from CARICOM increased by 14.7%, driven by mineral fuels and food. Similarly, total exports to the USMCA and EU declined by 11.1% and 36.7%, respectively. The falloff in the EU was driven by a 45.3% decline in crude material exports to the EU.
• Ultimately, a widening trade deficit means more US dollars are leaving the country to pay for imports than are coming in through merchandise exports. While remittances and tourism help plug this gap, a worsening merchandise deficit puts depreciatory pressure on the Jamaican Dollar (JMD). For the fiscal outlook, a weaker JMD can increase the local currency cost of servicing Jamaica’s US-dollar-denominated sovereign debt.

______________________

¹The United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA) is a free trade agreement between the three North American nations. It officially went into effect on July 1, 2020, replacing the 26-year-old North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA).

(Source: STATIN & NCBCM Research)

• With 150,000 housing solutions targeted to meet the nation’s demand, Prime Minister, Dr. the Most Hon. Andrew Holness, has underscored the need for an enterprise-level contracting cadre in Jamaica to take on large projects.
• Holness noted that each year, a “significant percentage” of the capital budget is returned to the Ministry of Finance and the Public Service because approved projects are not completed. Beyond the many processes that preceded the construction phase, the issue of uncompleted projects also relates to contractors, whom the Prime Minister described as critical to national development. Dr. Holness stressed that contractors are critical in achieving the Government’s 150,000 housing target.
• He explained that the approach requires engaging individuals with proven skills in housing construction and entering into legal agreements that obligate them to deliver homes at a specified price point, quality standard, and within a defined timeframe.
• The Prime Minister stated that Jamaica needs a contracting class that is thinking at enterprise scale, “that will put the resources into their business to acquire the technical skills and competencies, integrate the technology, and develop the balance sheet to support the kinds of capital works that the Government of Jamaica will be bringing to market”.
• Holness said contractors must have the capacity to take on 10,000 houses at a time to make a meaningful impact. He also urged local contractors to embrace innovation and leverage technology, so they can deliver houses in half the time previously required.
• Prime Minister Holness added that while the Government will continue to make preferential arrangements for local contractors, they must also be competitive at regional and global levels.
• For the Galina Housing Development, the National Housing Trust has partnered with a Chinese company, Henan Fifth Construction Group Jamaica Limited. “We welcome them into our space. We will hold them to the same standards, if not higher, for the production of houses at pace, at scale, and at the level of affordability for the average Jamaican,” Dr. Holness said.

(Source: JIS)

• The United States, Bolivia, Costa Rica, Guyana, Paraguay, and Trinidad and Tobago released a joint statement ​in support of Panama's sovereignty on Tuesday, saying recent ‌actions by China are an attempt to politicise maritime trade and infringe on the sovereignty of nations in the hemisphere.
• "We are monitoring with vigilance China's ​targeted economic pressure and the recent actions that have ​affected Panama-flagged vessels," the statement said. "Panama is a pillar of ⁠our maritime trading system, and as such must remain free ​from any undue external pressure."
• Panama's Supreme Court in late January invalidated ​the legal framework supporting the 1997 concession granting CK Hutchison's¹ Panama Ports Company the right to operate the Balboa and Cristobal terminals on the Pacific ​and Atlantic sides of the Panama Canal.
• The cancellation followed mounting U.S. ​pressure to curb Chinese influence around the strategic canal, which handles about 5% ‌of ⁠global maritime trade.
• CK Hutchison, which operated the ports for nearly 30 years, has rejected the court ruling, accused Panamanian authorities of unlawfully seizing property, and launched an international arbitration case against the ​country, claiming damages ​of more than $2 ⁠
• The Panamanian court ruling was followed by a surge in detentions and inspections of Panama-flagged vessels in ​China in apparent retaliation.
• On Wednesday, China's foreign ministry called ​the ⁠statement "entirely baseless and misleading", accused the United States of politicising ports, and said it would take steps to safeguard China's interests in Panama.
• "China ⁠also ​urges the relevant countries not to be ​deceived or exploited by malevolent forces," added Lin Jian, a foreign ministry spokesperson.

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 ¹CK Hutchison Holdings Ltd. is an investment holding company, which engages in the development, innovation, operation and investment in different business sectors. It operates through the following segments: Ports and Related Services; Retail; Infrastructure; Husky Energy and Telecommunications. The company was founded on December 12, 2014 and is headquartered in Hong Kong.

(Source: Reuters)

• Italy's energy producer Eni (ENI) on Tuesday, April 28, 2026, signed an agreement with Venezuela's oil ministry and state-run oil company, Venezuela Petróleos de Venezuela, S.A. (PDVSA), to relaunch a heavy crude project in the Orinoco Belt.
• PDVSA's key partners have been signing preliminary agreements to confirm interest or expand their oil and gas projects as the government progresses in a broad review of all contracts in the industry ⁠as part of an oil reform. U.S. Chevron, British Shell, and Spain's Repsol have also inked similar agreements to confirm or expand their partnerships in recent weeks.
• The pact with Eni was signed in Caracas in the presence of Venezuela's interim President Delcy Rodriguez, Eni's Chief Executive Claudio Descalzi, PDVSA's head Hector Obregon and Venezuela's oil ministry Paula Henao. The company's investment plan in the country is being drafted and should be completed by ⁠ year-end, Descalzi said.
• PDVSA and Eni, which has presence in the country since 1998, are partners in the Junin 5 project in the Orinoco, which holds ⁠ some 35-Bn barrels of certified oil in place, and in the Petrosucre project, where they produce crude in shallow waters. In 2025, Eni's production in Venezuela was 64,000 barrels of oil equivalent per day.
• Eni also has a partnership with Spain's ⁠ Repsol for the large Cardon IV offshore gas project, which was also relaunched recently to increase gas supply for Venezuela, and another for methanol ⁠output in the South American country.
• The agreement between Eni and PDVSA signals a broader reopening of Venezuela’s oil sector to foreign investment, which could boost medium-term global oil supply, improve investor confidence as firms like Chevron and Shell re-engage, and strengthen Europe’s energy diversification efforts amid ongoing geopolitical tensions.

(Source: Reuters)

• The Federal Reserve (Fed) held interest rates steady on Wednesday, April 29, 2026, but in its most divided decision since 1992, noting rising concerns about inflation in a policy statement that drew three dissents from officials who no longer feel the U.S. Central Bank should ‌communicate a bias towards lowering borrowing costs.
• "Inflation is elevated, in part reflecting the recent increase in global energy prices," the Fed said in its policy statement, a shift from previous language saying that inflation was just "somewhat" elevated. "Developments in the Middle East are contributing to a high level of uncertainty about the economic outlook," it said.
• The 8-4 vote was the most divisive since October 6, 1992, and shows the breadth of opinion presumed incoming Fed Chair Kevin Warsh will face in pursuing rate cuts that President Donald Trump says he expects from his chosen successor to Jerome Powell, whose term ⁠as central bank chief ends on May 15.
• Though the latest policy statement retained language about how the Fed would assess the "extent and timing of additional adjustments" to rates, a phrase that pointed to future cuts as the next likely move, three policymakers objected. Cleveland Fed President Beth Hammack, Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari and Dallas Fed President Lorie Logan, while supportive of holding the policy rate steady in the current 3.50%-3.75% range, "did not support inclusion of an easing bias in the statement at this time" and voted against the new statement.
• In a press conference held after the Fed meeting, Powell expressed that the Fed is well-positioned to determine the extent and timing of additional adjustments to its policy rate based on the incoming data, the evolving outlook and the balance of risks. He added, "Monetary policy is not on a preset course, and we will make our decisions on a meeting-by-meeting basis."
• With global oil prices lodged above $100 a barrel due to the U.S.-backed war against Iran, the Fed has been hard-pressed to determine if the impact is likely to be seen more through depressed growth or ‌higher inflation. This has ⁠kept the policy rate in the range where it has been since December despite repeated demands by Trump for looser monetary policy. Alongside elevated inflation, "the unemployment rate has been little changed in recent months," while the economy continues to expand "at a solid pace," the Fed said.

(Source: Reuters)

• The Bank of Canada (BOC) kept its ​key interest rate unchanged on Wednesday, April 29, 2026, as expected and expressed that any changes in the rate could be small if its projections ‌for the economy held true.
• However, Governor Tiff Macklem, citing uncertainty caused by the Middle East war and U.S. tariffs, said if oil prices stayed high and began pushing up inflation, it might have to respond with consecutive rate hikes. Macklem's comments marked the first time in recent years that he has been so specific about the path of interest rates. "If things ​evolve broadly in line with the outlook we have presented, and in particular, oil prices come down broadly in line with the futures ​curve, something close to the policy rate that we have today is probably about right," he said.
• The BOC noted that the ⁠overall effect of the war on Canada will be modest. High oil prices are set to benefit Canada by increasing export revenues, though squeezing businesses and consumers.
• Near-term inflation expectations have risen due to higher energy prices and elevated food prices, but long-term inflation expectations remain anchored. Inflation in ​April is expected to shoot up to about 3% from 2.4% in March, while averaging around 2.3% for this year. There is a risk that ​inflation expectations are not as well ⁠anchored as they were before COVID, Macklem said, noting public unhappiness when inflation spiked to 8.1% during the pandemic. Nevertheless, inflation is expected to fall back down to the ​2% target by early 2027.
• The BOC also lifted its 2026 growth forecast ​to 1.2% from the 1.1% it had predicted in January. However, economists and analysts are divided on the impact of higher crude oil prices on Canada, a net exporter. 
• Wednesday marked ​the central bank's first set of projections since the Iran war began on February 28, driving up crude and gasoline prices. Royce Mendes, head of macro strategy at Desjardins, said ‌the BoC ⁠appears comfortable leaving rates unchanged for the rest of the year, unless oil prices remain high. Once the economy recovers, central bankers will raise the policy rate gradually to 2.75%, he said, predicting that would not be till 2027.

(Source: Reuters)

• LASCO Financial Services Limited (LASF) has announced the appointment of Mrs Sharlene Williams as the company's new Managing Director, which took effect on January 1, 2026.
• In another executive change, Caribbean Assurance Brokers Limited (CARBROKERS) advised of the resignation of its Senior Manager of Employee Benefits, Ms. Michelle Harris, effective April 17, 2026. The company noted that the responsibilities of the Employee Benefits role continue to be managed seamlessly within the existing management structure while arrangements for the appointment of a successor are being finalised.
• Turning to shareholder returns, Supreme Ventures Limited (SVL) and Seprod Limited declared interim ordinary dividends.
• SVL declared that a dividend of 22.89 cents per stock unit will be payable on Thursday, July 2, 2026, to all shareholders on record as of Thursday, May 7, 2026. The increase, which is 31.6% higher than the 17.39 cents paid around the same time last year, should contribute to a dividend yield of 5.6% using SVL’s $16.08 share price as of April 28, 2026, and dividends declared over the last 12 months. This, coupled with news of a 35.9% increase in Q1 earnings, could support increased demand for SVL shares.
• Meanwhile, Seprod declared a dividend payment of 605 cents per share to shareholders on record as at May 15, 2026. The payment, which will be on June 5, 2026, is on par with the amount paid at the same time last year. This declaration, plus other dividends declared over the last 12 months, contributes to a 2.3% dividend yield at its current price of $78.30.
• Year to date, SVL (-6.9%), Seprod (-6.7%) and LASF (-6.7%) saw their share prices decline, while CARBROKERS appreciated by 7.5%. LASF and CARBROKERS traded at P/Bs of 0.89x and 0.95x, respectively, which is above the 0.86x financial sector peer average. Meanwhile, SVL traded at a P/E of 20.82x, which is below the 25.00x media and entertainment peer average. Lastly, Seprod trades at a P/E of 16.04x, which is below the manufacturing and distribution sector average of 18.04x. All else equal, a multiple below peer averages suggests that the stock is trading at a discount, but it would depend on future growth expectations or business risk.

(Sources: JSE & NCBCM Research)

• Following an official tour of Jamaica’s South Coast, Tourism Minister, Hon. Edmund Bartlett, noted that stakeholders collaborated urgently to restore operations, protect local livelihoods, and reopen the region following Hurricane Melissa. Restoration efforts were swift, allowing destinations like Treasure Beach, YS Falls, and the Black River Safari to reopen alongside planned enhancements to the local infrastructure.
• The Ministry indicated that, concurrent with the rebuilding, further work will be done to upgrade and reimagine the area's overall tourism offerings.
• Specific sites such as the Appleton Estate, Pelican Bar, Lashings, and Jakes Hotel are operating following safety and infrastructure checks, supported by coordination between the Jamaica Tourist Board and local stakeholders.
• The resumption of operations in the South Coast supports Jamaica’s broader tourism diversification strategy and provides direct financial relief to local communities that were hit by Hurricane Melissa.
• The Director of Tourism, Donovan White, confirmed to global partners that the region's recovery demonstrates a commitment to sustainability and that the area is fully open for business. Travelers are now able to access the South Coast as well as other resort areas across the island, including Kingston, Montego Bay, and Negril.

(Source: Jamaica Tourist Board)

• Venezuela’s acting president, Delcy Rodríguez, met on Monday, April 27, 2026, with Barbados’ Prime Minister Mia Mottley and invited her administration to invest in energy production in the South American country. Rodríguez's visit to Barbados marks her second official visit to a Caribbean island in recent weeks after visiting Grenada on April 9, 2026.
• Venezuela invited Barbados to invest in oil and gas exploration and to expand hydrocarbon production, with Rodríguez noting that the partnership could help provide energy security for Barbados.
• According to Mottley, Barbados currently faces a “very difficult time” for energy security, and as such, she welcomed the investment opportunity. “We want our cooperation to extend also beyond fossil fuels to … renewable energy,” Mottley said. Their meeting also included discussions on partnering in food production, boosting tourism, and improving trade.
• This initiative comes against a broader regional backdrop, as the International Monetary Fund (IMF) warns that the ongoing Middle East conflict is deepening economic vulnerabilities across the Caribbean, particularly for energy-importing economies, with rising oil prices expected to increase fuel, transport, and food costs.
• While some commodity-exporting countries may benefit, most Caribbean economies face worsening external balances and tighter fiscal space, contributing to a more uneven regional outlook. As a result, energy security is becoming a central policy priority across the region, reinforcing the importance of partnerships such as the Venezuela–Barbados initiative.

(Sources: AP News & IMF)

• The economies of Latin America and the Caribbean are projected to grow by 2.2% on average in 2026, according to the Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean (ECLAC).
• This represents a slight downward revision from the 2.3% estimated in December 2025, reflecting a more complex external environment characterised by greater geopolitical tensions, restrictive financial conditions and the resurgence of inflationary pressures.
• According to the United Nations regional economic commission, this reduced dynamism is expected to be widespread. Growth is seen decelerating in 24 of the region’s 33 countries, and accelerating in just 7, with the region having had four straight years of growth rates around 2.3%, revealing a pattern of low capacity for growth.
• The deterioration in the external scenario is driven by increased geopolitical tensions and the war in the Middle East, with the average price of oil in the first three weeks of April 74% higher than in December 2025. As a result, this has generated global inflationary pressures, raised production and transportation costs, and contributed to higher food prices and weaker international trade activity
• At the regional level, growth is constrained mainly by less dynamic private consumption. Investment shows signs of recovering but continues to be moderate in the majority of countries. Employment growth is estimated at around 1.1% in 2026, versus 1.5% in 2025, and inflation is topping 3% in 2026 compared with 2.4% in 2025.
• Subregional performance remains uneven. South America is seen growing by 2.4%, Central America by 2.2%, and the English- and Dutch-speaking Caribbean by 5.6% - driven largely by high growth in Guyana.
• Relevant risks remain, including the continuation of restrictive financial conditions, inflationary pressures from energy and food prices, volatility in international markets, vulnerability to external shocks, and weak domestic demand. Furthermore, structural challenges such as low trend growth and high exposure to external shocks continue to weigh on the region’s economic performance.

(Source: Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean)