• Consumer prices continued to ease in February with the All-Jamaica Consumer Price Index (CPI) falling by 0.9%, according to data released by the Statistical Institute of Jamaica (STATIN). This marks a second consecutive monthly decline, following the supply-side shock caused by Hurricane Melissa.
• With the faster than expected rebound in supplies of key agricultural produce, the 'Food and Non-Alcoholic Beverages' division, which fell by 2.5%, continued to be the main contributor to the decline. An 11.3% fall in the index for the class, 'Vegetables, tubers, plantains, cooking bananas, and pulses' was the primary driver, attributable to increased supply of agricultural produce, including cabbage, carrot, cucumber, sweet pepper, and tomato on the local market.
• The overall movement in the CPI was moderated by a 0.2% increase in the 'Housing, Water, Electricity, Gas and Other Fuels' division, due to higher electricity rates, as well as a 0.2% rise in the 'Transport' division, reflecting higher petrol prices.
• As such, the annual point-to-point (P2P) inflation rate for February 2025 to February 2026 stood at 3.9%, unchanged from the 3.9% reading in January and down from a post-Hurricane Melissa peak of 4.5% in 2025.
• Two consecutive monthly CPI declines suggest that the inflationary impact of Hurricane Melissa is proving more temporary than initially anticipated. This is owed in large part to the swift response of the Ministry of Agriculture in restoring agricultural production in the storm's aftermath. This was reflected in the Bank of Jamaica’s (BOJ's) 25 basis points rate cut announcement on February 23, 2026, which was made possible by a faster-than-anticipated recovery in agricultural supplies and mild exchange rate appreciation.
• Inflation is projected to return to the 4.0–6.0% target range by end-2026. However, the BOJ flagged upside risks, including increased domestic spending amid post-hurricane reconstruction efforts and the government's temporary suspension of the fiscal rule, which could place upward pressure on prices over the near term.
• Moreover, since the BOJ’s rate reduction, new risks have emerged from the external environment that could push inflation outside the BOJ target range. The U.S.-Israel war on Iran has pushed oil prices to their highest level. On March 9, Brent Crude Oil hit an intraday high of US$119.50 since Q1 2022, despite the International Energy Agency member countries authorising a record release of oil reserves¹. The war has also caused a spike in fertiliser prices following reduced traffic through the Strait of Hormuz, which is responsible for 20% of global oil supplies and a third of fertiliser.
• Ultimately, the evolution of inflation this year will weigh heavily on the duration of the conflict and whether it spreads to other parts of the region. With the higher upside risks to inflation, we anticipate that the BOJ is likely to take a wait-and-see approach and hold its policy rate at 5.50% at its next meeting scheduled for March 31^st.

__________________________

¹The IEA member countries have authorised the release of 400 million barrels of oil, the largest coordinated release in history, to stabilise markets following the conflict.

(Sources: JIS, Bank of Jamaica & NCBCM Research)

• Lumber Depot Limited (LUMBER) hammered out a solid third quarter (Q3) ended January 31, 2026, with net profits rising 34.4% year-over-year to $35.26Mn. The performance reflects strong top-line growth and improved operating performance that helped the company to nail down better results. The quarter's gains were, however, partially offset by a sharp rise in finance costs tied to its first major debt facility, as well as the onset of corporate taxation following the expiry of the company's tax-free status.
• Q3 revenues rose to $412.75Mn (+10.9%), as the company continued to build on sustained demand for lumber, hardware supplies and related products from contractors and homeowners across the Papine community and wider corporate area.
• Gross profit expanded by 23.5% to $97.19Mn, as revenue growth outpaced a 7.5% rise in direct costs. As a result, gross margins improved to 23.5% from 21.1%, as the company got better traction on its product mix and pricing. Administrative expenses also edged up by 3.6% to $56.56Mn – pointing to solid cost discipline. The slower growth in admin expenses, relative to gross profit, coupled with a quadrupling of other income, to $6.25Mn, supported a widening of operating margins from 7.5% to 11.4%.
• On the flip side, net finance costs jumped to $6.72Mn, from income of $0.71Mn, shaving off some of the bottom line. The increase reflects charges associated with a new $200Mn long-term loan facility drawn to fund the acquisition of the property adjacent to its Papine store. This strategic investment is intended to expand inventory capacity, reduce congestion, improve parking, and deliver an enhanced showroom experience for customers.
• Notwithstanding strong Q3 earnings, nine-month earnings inched down 2.3%. This was driven by Lumber Depot's six-month performance, where there was a 14.3% contraction in earnings. This largely reflects the impact of taxation introduced in the current period versus none in the comparable 2024 period, with 2025 marking the first year Lumber Depot bore a tax charge following the expiry of its five-year income tax exemption under JSE’s Junior Market rules. This overshadowed the marginal 0.6% year-on-year improvement in operating profit.
• Looking ahead, management remains focused on executing its expansion strategy, developing the newly acquired adjacent site, and capitalising on acquisition opportunities as construction activity in Jamaica increases. Moreover, the company's 29.3% stake in Atlantic Hardware & Plumbing Company Limited (AHPCL) continues to serve as a complementary strategic asset in its growth toolkit.
• LUMBER's stock price has decreased by 11.7% since the start of the year to close at $2.48 on Monday, March 16, 2026. At this price, it trades at a P/E of 13.05x, which is below the Junior Market Distribution Sector average of 19.61x.

(Source: Lumber Depot Financial Statements & NCBCM Research)

• Rising tensions and conflict involving the United States (U.S.) and Iran have disrupted global oil markets, particularly around the Strait of Hormuz, a key route for about 20% of the world’s oil supply. The uncertainty has pushed up international fuel prices, forcing some Caribbean governments to absorb the increases to shield consumers.
• In the Dominican Republic, the government announced a RD$5 per gallon increase for gasoline and diesel for the week of March 14–20, with premium gasoline set at RD$295.10 and regular gasoline at RD$277.50. Diesel prices also rose while Liquefied Petroleum Gas (LPG) remained unchanged, as authorities allocated RD$1.19Bn in subsidies to prevent even sharper increases driven by global oil market tensions.
• For Guyana, fuel prices have risen sharply at private service stations across Georgetown, with gasoline climbing by at least $15 per litre to as high as $195 for gasoline and $200 for diesel in some locations. However, the state-owned Guyana Oil Company Limited has kept its prices stable at $170 per litre for gasoline and $190 for diesel, aiming to protect consumers from market volatility. Authorities also noted that stability is possible as the government continues to maintain a zero per cent excise tax on petroleum products. This measure was initially announced by Finance Minister Ashni Singh during the presentation of the 2026 Budget and costs the state about $100Bn in foregone revenue annually, but helps prevent global oil price shocks from fully hitting consumers.
• Meanwhile, in Antigua and Barbuda, Prime Minister Gaston Browne noted that the government of Antigua and Barbuda is absorbing part of the global fuel price increase by reducing fuel consumption taxes. As a result, gasoline prices have been held steady at EC$14.25 per imperial gallon, even though the West Indies Oil Company confirmed that recent fuel shipments arrived at significantly higher global prices. Nevertheless, Browne warned that higher international fuel costs typically raise the price of transportation, groceries, and other imports, but the government is continuing to cushion consumers for now, despite the fiscal pressure and previous losses from earlier price spikes linked to global conflicts.
• As tensions around the Strait of Hormuz squeeze global oil supplies, countries like the Dominican Republic are passing on modest increases at the pump, while Antigua and Barbuda and Guyana are leaning on tax cuts and state controls to soften the blow, highlighting different strategies across the region to shield households from a surge in global energy prices.

(Sources: Kaieteur News, Dominican Today, Trinidad Express Newspapers   & NCBCM Research)

• The United States (U.S) expanded sanctions waivers on Venezuela, easing the way for ‌investment in the South American country’s energy and petrochemical sectors and allowing for fertiliser exports as Washington seeks to help American farmers hit by rising prices stemming from the Iran war.
• The U.S. Treasury Department issued three updated general licenses as part of the move. The department said the changes were intended to support the revitalisation of Venezuela’s energy industry while ensuring global commodity markets remain well-supplied, although it was not ⁠immediately clear how much fertiliser Venezuela had available to export, or how quickly it would reach the U.S.
• The move reflects the Trump administration’s effort to cushion consumers and farmers from rising commodity prices due to the conflict with Iran, which has boosted oil and fertiliser costs and raised concerns about broader inflation. The measures specifically support activities related to electricity generation, transmission and distribution, all seen as critical to boosting oil production after decades of underinvestment.
• The actions build on a series of sanctions adjustments Washington has ⁠rolled out since the January capture and removal of President Nicolas Maduro. Earlier this month, U.S. authorities issued a license authorising certain transactions involving Venezuelan-origin gold, while oil sanctions were more broadly relaxed in February and ⁠

(Source: Reuters)

• Britain's economy stagnated unexpectedly in January after weak growth in the preceding months, according ‌to official data, which showed a loss of momentum even before the war in Iran that is likely to be a further drag.
• Gross domestic product has been essentially flat since June, the figures from the Office for National Statistics (ONS) showed on Friday, despite promises by Prime Minister ​Keir Starmer and finance minister Rachel Reeves to speed up the economy. Gross domestic product (GDP) showed zero growth in January, dashing ​the median prediction in a Reuters poll of economists for a 0.2% month-on-month increase.
• In the ⁠three months to January, it rose by 0.2%, the ONS said, against expectations for a 0.3% increase. The Sterling slipped against the U.S. dollar after the figures were published. There was no growth in the dominant services sector in January - ​at odds with more upbeat business surveys - while manufacturing and construction output rose modestly. Investors view Britain as more exposed than many other Western countries to an energy price shock due to heavy reliance on imported gas and its stretched public finances, which may limit government support ​for energy users.
• British government bond prices have fallen sharply since the start of the U.S.-Israeli war on Iran. "This is a ​worrying start to the quarter, given that the early-year improvement in business confidence is likely to be short-lived," Fergus Jimenez-England, associate economist at ‌NIESR, said.
• British GDP has been essentially flat since June, ending January at the same level as six months earlier. The ⁠disappointing GDP data would typically spur expectations for Bank of England interest rate cuts, but the opposite happened, with investors now pricing in a roughly 86% chance of a BoE rate hike by the end of 2026 due to rising inflation risk.
• Last month, the ​Bank of England said it expected the economy to grow 0.3% in the first quarter ​and 0.9% over ⁠2026 as a whole. That was before the conflict in Iran began. Finance Minister Reeves said this week it was too soon to say how soaring energy prices would affect the economy.

(Source: Reuters)

• Canada's annual inflation rate fell to 1.8% in February, after prices in the same period a ‌year ago had risen sharply when the government's sales tax relief ended, Statistics Canada highlighted. Excluding the effect of indirect taxes, the Consumer Price Index rose 1.9% year-over-year in February, it said.
• While the inflation data for March will be the final month affected by the base-year effect ​of the sales tax break, rising crude oil prices as a result of the Iran war are likely to ​change inflation expectations. Economists polled by Reuters had expected inflation to fall to 1.9% year-over-year in February ⁠from 2.3% in January, and 0.7% month-over-month compared with no change in the prior month. On a monthly basis, consumer prices ​rose by 0.5% in February.
• The Bank of Canada (BoC) has held its key policy rate at 2.25% since October, as inflation ​stabilised around its 2% target within a 1-3% control range. The BoC will give some indication of inflationary pressures at its policy decision on Wednesday.
• Despite the base year effect, food prices in February rose ‌by 5.4% ⁠on an annual basis as food purchased at restaurants increased by 7.8% last month. Food prices have remained a major pressure point for Canadian households, as grocery prices have risen faster than overall inflation due to U.S. President Donald Trump's tariffs, bad weather conditions and supply chain issues.
• Grocery prices rose 4.1% in February after a 4.8% rise observed in January, and the statistics agency said they have risen by 30% in the last five ⁠ Gasoline prices decelerated by 14.2% in February due to the continued impact of the removal of a carbon tax on the fuel, which reduced the year-over-year price. This impact will stay until April, StatsCan said.
• Economists and the Bank of Canada closely watch core measures of inflation to gauge underlying price pressures. The CPI-median, the centermost ⁠component of the CPI basket, was 2.3%, while CPI-trim, which excludes the most extreme price changes, was also at 2.3%.
• The Bank of Canada has held its key policy rate at 2.25% since October, as inflation ​stabilised around its 2% target within a 1-3% control range. The BoC will give some indication of inflationary pressures at its policy decision on Wednesday.

(Source: Reuters)

• Blue Power Group (BPOW) had nearly all its profits washed down the drain for the third quarter (Q3) ended January 31, 2026, as earnings plunged 96.6% year-over-year to $488.3K. The sharp decline reflects a combination of weak sales in lower-priced bath soap products and a build-up of foreign exchange losses, which weighed on finance income.
• Q3 revenues amounted to $193.66Mn (-11.6%), as sales lost some lather during the quarter, particularly within certain value products in its bath soap product line. This segment has faced intense price competition from sporadic informal imports, which are squeezing both its direct sales and those of its distributors and brand owners.
• Despite an improvement in direct cost (-13.8%), quarterly gross profit slipped by $4.78Mn (-7.5%), reflecting weaker sales volumes. At the same time, cost pressures continued to mount, as the company remains subject to a 40% duty on key raw materials under the CARICOM treaty framework. This rule, clarified by the Caribbean Court of Justice in 2024, has raised production costs and left BPOW fighting to stay competitive in the low-cost value soap category. The company is engaging CARICOM authorities for potential duty relief on raw materials. Despite this, gross profit margins improved to 30.3% from 28.9%, suggesting the company is still managing to squeeze some extra suds from its product mix.
• Operating and administrative expenses rose modestly to $3.39Mn (+3.0%) as the company continued to support its operations and product portfolio while navigating slippery competitive pressure. Consequently, profit before finance income and taxation amounted to $7.49Mn, down 46.2% relative to the previous corresponding quarter, while operating margins thinned from 6.7% to 4.1%. Still, management indicated that immediate steps are being taken to improve operating efficiency in its low-cost product lines to restore competitiveness and protect margins.
• Results were further dulled by an adverse swing in finance income, which shifted from $3.86Mn in Q3 2025 to a loss of $7.32Mn. This reversal was largely driven by foreign exchange losses on the company’s US-dollar cash balances and fixed-income investment portfolio, effectively rinsing out what would have otherwise been stronger operating gains.
• Owing to a combination of weaker earnings from the start of the financial year, year to date earnings for the nine-month slipped to $46.5Mn (-54.1%), highlighting how both operating and financial pressures combined left BPOW struggling to keep profits from slipping down the drain.
• Looking ahead, management remains optimistic about growth in higher-margin premium products, particularly natural and plant-based soaps, where increased sales have already partially offset weaker value-segment performance. The company also remains committed to its market-leading position in laundry bar soap, noting that a refreshed product review and innovation pipeline will be rolled out for this portfolio in the upcoming financial year.
• BPOW's stock price has decreased by 9.3% since the start of the year to close at $3.72 on Thursday, March 12, 2026. At this price, it trades at a P/E of 21.88x, which is above the Junior Market Manufacturing Sector average of 21.7x.

(Sources: JSE & NCBCM Research)

• Over the past decade, Jamaica has engineered an extraordinary fiscal turnaround, slashing its public-debt-to-GDP ratio from 140% in 2012 to 62% in 2024. This as highlighted in the International Monetary Fund’s (IMF) March 2026 article “Debt Reduction Lessons from Jamaica,” was accomplished largely through consistently high primary budget surpluses averaging more than 6% of GDP for over ten years.
• But this answer raises a further question: How did Jamaica achieve a consensus on the need to run such substantial surpluses with the goal of more than halving its public debt, and how did it implement and maintain the requisite policies? The IMF argues that three elements combined made the country’s successful debt consolidation possible: a coherent set of rules and procedures, effective consensus-building efforts, and an independent fiscal oversight body.
• Beginning in 2010, Jamaica implemented a fiscal responsibility framework that required eliminating the budget deficit and reducing the debt ratio to no more than 100% by FY2016. This was later strengthened in 2014 with a multiyear plan to bring debt down to 60% of GDP by 2026 (later pushed to 2028 during COVID-19). The framework included a carefully designed escape clause allowing temporary suspension of fiscal rules when shocks exceed 1.5% of GDP, with activation requiring independent validation by the auditor general, ensuring the rules were credible while allowing responses to emergencies.
• Furthermore, in 2013, the government of Jamaica, the opposition, labour unions, and employer associations signed the Partnership for Jamaica Agreement, explicitly acknowledging the unsustainable debt burden and committing to transparency, accountability, consultation, and equitable burden sharing to sustain fiscal adjustment.
• Finally, monitoring by the Economic Programme Oversight Committee (EPOC) also helped verify implementation of reforms and IMF program commitments, while the creation of the Independent Fiscal Commission in 2025 institutionalised fiscal transparency and provided an independent “second opinion” on fiscal developments, reinforcing adherence to fiscal rules.
• These three elements combined made possible the country’s successful debt consolidation. As a result, additional Caribbean countries have followed Jamaica’s example by adopting fiscal rules, forming independent fiscal councils, and working to forge a social consensus around fiscal reform.
• However, the story doesn’t quite end there. In October 2025, Hurricane Melissa made landfall in Jamaica, causing damage estimated at US$8.8Bn or roughly 41% of GDP. In response, the government quickly assembled a comprehensive package to finance Jamaica’s recovery and reconstruction efforts, drawing on a layered disaster risk financing framework it had built over the years.
• Independent validation and the country’s strong track record reassured markets, despite the significant damage, which resulted in none of the major credit rating agencies downgrading the government’s bonds following either the storm or suspension of the rules. Looking ahead, debt is projected to rise slightly to 68% of GDP in 2026 before resuming a gradual decline, with the 60% target now expected by 2030.

(Source: IMF)

• As offshore oil development moves closer to production, Suriname’s government is outlining a longer-term economic vision aimed at ensuring oil revenues translate into broader national development.
• In an interview with the Communications Service Suriname on February 26, Minister of Oil, Gas and Environment Patrick Brunings cautioned against over reliance on the country’s emerging oil and gas sector. 
• “I see the oil and gas industry as a catalyst that will accelerate our economic recovery,” Brunings said. “But we absolutely mustn’t rely on it. We must use this prosperity to develop sustainable industries, so we remain flexible and don’t become dependent on just one source.”
• With offshore activity expanding and production from the GranMorgu project in Block 58 expected in 2028, the government is preparing a longer-term economic framework referred to as ‘Suriname 3.0’. “With the focus on offshore activities and the approaching production in 2028, the government is preparing for Suriname 3.0,” Brunings said. The concept forms part of a broader development planning effort that includes the preparation of ‘Vision 2050’, which is intended to guide Suriname’s long-term economic trajectory. 
• According to government discussions with the private sector, the initiative builds on the current ‘Suriname 2.0’ phase and seeks to outline the country’s long-term transformation under Suriname 3.0, while serving as a starting point for both the Green Development Strategy and a new Multi-Year Development Program.
• According to the minister, the strategy aims to ensure that revenues from the oil and gas sector support the development of other industries, including modern agriculture, ecotourism and fisheries. “You want to diversify as early as possible,” he said.
• While oil development is accelerating, Brunings stressed that the country must avoid becoming overly dependent on petroleum revenues and guard against the so-called Dutch disease, where sudden resource wealth weakens other parts of the economy.

(Source: OIL Now)

• The Trinidad & Tobago (T&T) government is seeking to strengthen small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs), expand exports, and develop new industries as part of its strategy to diversify Trinidad and Tobago’s economy.
• Speaking at the Catalyst SME Conference, Planning and Development Minister Kennedy Swaratsingh said SMEs remain central to the country’s economic transformation. SMEs are the engines of innovation, employment and economic participation, they stimulate new ideas and form the value of economic resilience,” he said.
• Cabinet recently approved the development of a Strategic National Development Plan for 2026 to 2030, which will guide the country’s development over the next five years. These pillars the Minister notes are designed to create an environment in which businesses can grow, innovate and compete globally. However, national transformation cannot happen by government alone. It requires strong collaboration with the private sector, entrepreneurs and financial institutions.
• The Agriculture and the creative sector also have significant potential for diversification in the economy; however, the industry must be repositioned as a modern and technology-driven sector. He explained that “Agriculture today is no longer about primary production. It involves innovation in agro-processing, supply chain management, climate resilient farming and export market development.”
• Likewise, there are opportunities within the Carnival economy and wider creative industries. The global creative industries generate approximately US$2.3 trillion annually, but T&T’s contribution remains minimal contributing less than one-tenth of 1.0% of international GDP. This gap represents a significant opportunity for economic expansion.
• Overall, these initiatives signal a renewed push to reduce Trinidad & Tobago’s reliance on the energy sector by nurturing SMEs, modernising agriculture, and unlocking value in the creative economy as new drivers of sustainable growth. If successfully executed, the strategy could strengthen non-energy sectors, broaden the country’s economic and export base, and support stronger non-energy GDP growth. Over time, this diversification could improve employment and domestic income generation, increase foreign exchange inflows, and reduce sensitivity to oil and gas price cycles, contributing to more stable fiscal revenues and greater macroeconomic resilience.

(Sources: Trinidad Express and NCBCM Research)