• Jamaica welcomed 2.34Mn visitors and generated approximately US$2.50Bn in tourism earnings as at August 31, 2026. However, arrivals and earnings remained 17.0% and 18.0% below the corresponding 2025 levels, respectively, reflecting the lingering effects of Hurricane Melissa on the sector’s operating capacity and softer demand amid elevated travel costs.
• The decline in arrivals primarily reflects the combined impact of reduced accommodation and airlift capacity, although higher airfares have likely also weighed on demand. Approximately 70.0% of the country’s room stock is currently operational, with several high-demand properties among the remaining 30.0% that are still offline.
• Demand for Jamaica has nevertheless remained relatively firm, with visitor arrivals recovering faster than room inventory. Airlines have maintained their routes to the island, with available flights reportedly operating at high load factors, which has helped preserve the country’s relationship with airline partners
• However, airlift remains below pre-hurricane levels and continues to face both domestic and global constraints. Reduced service on key US routes and the loss of Spirit Airlines have limited lower-cost seat availability to Jamaica. More broadly, delayed aircraft and engine deliveries, spare-parts shortages and constrained maintenance capacity are restricting airlines’ ability to expand fleets and routes. These pressures, together with elevated fuel costs, have raised operating expenses and contributed to higher airfares.
• The recovery also faces external headwinds from the global aviation industry, where elevated oil prices, due to the US-Iran conflict, have translated into higher airfares and limited airlift capacity. Elevated travel costs could temper demand, particularly among price-sensitive visitors, and slow the conversion of restored room inventory into stronger arrivals and tourism earnings.
• The restoration of the remaining room stock is expected to extend from late 2026 into Q1 2027, limiting the pace at which visitor arrivals and earnings can return to pre-hurricane levels. This timeline is consistent with the Government’s earlier expectation that room capacity would approach 95.0% by December 2026 and be fully restored during Q1 2027.
• Near-term tourism activity is therefore likely to remain below its 2025 performance, as accommodation shortages, reduced airlift and elevated travel costs constrain the recovery. However, average expenditure per visitor remained relatively stable at approximately US$1,068, compared with US$1,082 in the prior year, indicating that the decline in tourism earnings has been driven primarily by lower arrivals rather than weaker visitor spending. The phased reopening of major properties should support a stronger recovery through late 2026 and into 2027, providing an important lift to services exports and broader economic activity.

(Sources: JIS & NCBCM Research)

• Jamaica’s external position continued to show weakness to start 2026 as the current account surplus narrowed dramatically compared with a year earlier, driven primarily by falling goods and services exports in the aftermath of Hurricane Melissa.
• Goods exports contracted 22.1% year-on-year in Q1 2026 on substantially lower mining production and shipments, while services exports, driven largely by tourism, fell by 20.1% year-on-year as visitor expenditures saw a sharp contraction. Imports fell only moderately, supported by a significant expansion of capital goods and transport imports aligned with ongoing storm recovery efforts.
• Meanwhile, inbound remittances, though slowing from Q4 2025, still grew by a healthy 7.4% year-on-year, which helped prevent a more severe deterioration of the current account. Even so, the surplus barely remained in positive territory, a notable result for a historically strong quarter. This weakness in Q1 2026 is a continuation of trends seen to end 2025. (see fig 1).
• Continued weakness from Jamaica’s external sector is expected for the remainder of 2026, with the current account projected to flip from a surplus of 1.5% of GDP in 2025 to a deficit of 3.8% in 2026. This deterioration will be driven by a broad continuation of the forces that narrowed Jamaica's trade and current account surpluses in Q1, with weakening goods and services exports and rising imports underpinning this view.
• Visitor arrivals will continue to weigh on services receipts – especially as higher crude prices push travel costs up and tourism demand down. Furthermore, sluggish bauxite and alumina production portends continued goods export weakness. Finally, while strong remittance inflows will continue to support the current account in the near and medium term, growth of these crucial flows has continued to slow after surging post-Melissa, a trend that will coincide with the current account changing to deficit through year-end 2026.
• As a net energy importer, the economy is acutely vulnerable to changes in global energy costs, with monthly fuel imports rising dramatically in March (+20.1% y-o-y) and April (+12.3% y-o-y) in tandem with surging fuel costs following the onset of the Iran-US conflict. While energy prices eased in June and July, a resumption of tensions in the Middle East has driven prices back up, which will again weigh on Jamaica's trade balance for the year. Therefore, as seen in Q1, rising capital goods imports for ongoing reconstruction efforts, along with the resurgence in fuel prices will further pressure the trade balance.
• External debt and investment positions continue to pose limited risks to macroeconomic stability. External debt increased modestly from US$14.2Bn (64.9% of GDP) to US$14.6Bn (65.1% of GDP), driven by higher long-term borrowing alongside a slight decline in short-term liabilities. Consequently, short-term debt accounted for just 20.1% of total external debt in Q1, down 0.6 percentage points from Q4, and remained more than twice covered by Jamaica’s robust foreign reserves. Jamaica's net international investment position also remains sound, with direct investment accounting for the majority of IIP liabilities. That said, quarterly current account deficits are expected in the near and medium term, which will likely widen the Net International Investment Position (NIIP) as a (negative) percentage of GDP – as seen in Q4 2025 – especially as nominal GDP growth takes a hit post-Melissa in 2026.
• Risks tilted toward a wider current account deficit over the near term, particularly if the Iran-US conflict intensifies and keeps oil prices elevated for a protracted period, driving both stronger imports and weaker tourism demand.

(Source: BMI, a Fitch Solutions Company)

• Trinidad and Tobago (T&T) could emerge as a major regional oil and gas processing hub over the next decade, provided it successfully develops new deepwater resources and secures additional Venezuelan gas supplies. Former Energy Minister Kevin Ramnarine identified BP’s Calypso project, Venezuelan gas developments such as Dragon and Loran, and a potential ExxonMobil ultra-deepwater discovery as the key pillars underpinning this opportunity.
• The prospect represents a potential reversal of T&T’s prolonged decline in natural gas production. Gas output has fallen by about 40% from its 2010 peak of 4.3 billion cubic feet per day (bcf/d) to below 2.5 bcf/d. This has contributed to weaker energy-sector Gross Domestic Product (GDP), the closure of industrial plants at Point Lisas and underutilisation of Atlantic LNG. Against this backdrop, the expected start-up of new projects could provide a significant boost to production.
• Manatee is expected to be central to that recovery, with first gas targeted for the fourth quarter of 2027 and production estimated at about 610 million cubic feet per day (mmcf/d), equivalent to roughly 25% of current national output. Together with EOG Resource’s Coconut and BP’s Ginger projects, Manatee could help lift national gas production towards 3 bcf/d in 2027, although the full economic impact is expected to become more evident in 2028.
• Beyond domestic production, Venezuelan gas could further strengthen T&T’s position as a regional processing hub. Projects including Dragon, Loran and potentially Coquina-Manakin could provide additional supplies, while T&T’s existing processing infrastructure and available capacity offer an attractive base for handling Venezuelan gas. This, however, would make the country’s ability to capture the broader economic benefits of these projects increasingly important.
• In this regard, greater local participation could determine how much of the anticipated investment translates into domestic economic activity. Ramps Logistics Limited, executive Javed Razack estimated that T&T could capture US$400–500Mn of the roughly US$2Bn Manatee investment but argued that stronger enforcement of local-content rules is needed to ensure more spending reaches domestic businesses and workers. Such participation could generate wider benefits through employment, taxes, business activity and foreign-exchange earnings.
• Nevertheless, the expected energy revival should not be viewed as an immediate fiscal windfall, highlighting the need for T&T to plan beyond the next gas cycle. Economist Indera Sagewan cautioned that government revenues will initially be constrained as energy companies recover their capital investments, while weaker production in 2026 continues to pressure foreign-exchange earnings and the country’s debt-to-GDP ratio remains elevated at about 84%. Consequently, the country has been urged to use the coming energy upswing to develop new economic sectors and industries that can generate jobs, foreign exchange and government revenue long after its natural gas resources decline.

(Source: Trinidad & Tobago Guardian)

• St Lucia is set to become the latest Caribbean country to participate in the United States’ (U.S.) third-country nationals (TCN) programme, with the first six migrants arriving this week under an agreement that will see the island receive up to 10 people per quarter over the next two years. The government said the individuals will either be voluntarily repatriated to their countries of origin or supported in integrating into St Lucia if they choose to remain.
• The arrangement forms part of a broader regional trend, with several Caribbean countries pursuing similar agreements with Washington, albeit under different terms. Jamaica has agreed to receive up to 25 TCNs every two weeks, while Panama and Costa Rica have also accepted transfers, with Costa Rica so far receiving hundreds of people under its agreement (25 deported migrants a week). Meanwhile, Antigua and Barbuda has stressed that its non-binding understanding with the U.S. has not yet been operationalised.
• For the smaller Caribbean states involved, however, the issue extends beyond migration policy to questions of capacity, security and the potential economic and diplomatic benefits of closer cooperation with the U.S.
• CARICOM leaders have acknowledged the importance of the US relationship while cautioning that third-country arrangements must not overwhelm national resources, undermine security or divert services from citizens. They have also emphasised that the agreements are intended primarily to facilitate transit to migrants’ home countries rather than permanent settlement.

(Sources: Caribbean Today, JIS, The Guardian, Third Party Deportation Watch)

• The U.S. trade deficit widened sharply in July, increasing 24.4% to US$88.6Bn, as strong domestic demand boosted imports. The result was slightly better than the US$90.0Bn deficit expected by economists.
• Total imports increased 2.8% to US$399.3Bn, with goods imports rising 3.7% to US$320.6Bn. Capital goods imports surged by US$14.4Bn to a record US$140.3Bn, driven by increased imports of computers, computer accessories and semiconductors, likely reflecting continued investment in artificial intelligence. However, imports of industrial supplies and materials, which include petroleum, dropped $1.8Bn. Crude oil imports fell $1.8 billion amid lower prices.
• Meanwhile, exports declined 2.1% to US$310.7Bn, as goods shipment fell 3.0% to US$201.0Bn. The decline was led by a US$8.7Bn reduction in exports of industrial supplies and materials, including crude oil and non-monetary gold.
• Consequently, the goods trade deficit widened 17.3% to US$119.6Bn in July. On an inflation-adjusted basis, the goods deficit increased 12.7% to US$106.4Bn.
• Despite the Trump administration's aggressive import tariffs, the US recorded record goods trade deficits with Mexico, Vietnam, Taiwan, Thailand, South Korea and Malaysia. However, the deficit with Canada narrowed by US$3.7Bn to US$3.2Bn.
• The sharp widening of the deficit suggests that trade could again weigh on US economic growth in Q3. Trade already subtracted 1.14 percentage points from GDP growth in Q2, when the economy expanded at a 1.5% annualised rate. However, the surge in capital-goods imports also reflects strong business investment, particularly in the ongoing AI buildout.

(Source: Reuters)

• The number of Americans filing for unemployment benefits rose marginally last week, pointing to stable labour market conditions and continued low layoffs. Initial claims increased by 2,000 to a seasonally adjusted 206,000 for the week ended August 29, broadly in line with economists’ forecast of 205,000.
• The number of people receiving unemployment benefits after an initial week of aid, a proxy for hiring, increased by 8,000 to 1.779Mn for the week ended August 22. Economists continued to characterise the labour market as being in a “slow hire, slow fire” mode.
• Separately, planned job cuts by US-based companies increased 58% to 52,881 in August. However, this represented the lowest total for the month of August since 2022, while announced layoffs so far in 2026 were 41% below the corresponding period of 2025.
• Attention now turns to the August employment report due September 4. Economists expect nonfarm payrolls to rebound by 56,000 jobs, following a 23,000 decline in July, while the unemployment rate is expected to remain unchanged at 4.1%.
• The relatively stable labour market gives the Federal Reserve room to remain focused on inflation. However, Fed Governor Christopher Waller indicated that he was leaning towards keeping rates unchanged in September if upcoming inflation data confirm that price pressures are continuing to moderate.
• With layoffs remaining low and unemployment expected to hold at 4.1%, there is currently little evidence of significant labour-market deterioration that would force the Fed to ease policy. This leaves inflation developments as a key determinant of the Fed’s September decision, particularly after services input prices reached a three-year high in August.

(Source: Reuters)

• Announcements on corporate developments spanning regulatory compliance, leadership changes and regional expansion through cross-border acquisition were among the releases coming from companies listed on the Jamaica Stock Exchange’s (JSE) headlines.
• On the regulatory front, the JSE immediately suspended trading in the shares of Medical Disposables & Supplies Limited (MDS), in accordance with Junior Market Rule Appendix 2, Part 4(2)(e), pending submission of its audited financial statements for the year ended March 31, 2026. Until the outstanding financials are submitted and the suspension is lifted, investors will be unable to trade the stock, while the absence of audited results limits visibility into the company’s latest financial position and performance.
• Governance developments were also in focus, particularly across NCB Financial Group Limited (NCBFG) and its subsidiaries. Robert Almeida will conclude his tenure as NCB Financial Group Limited (NCBFG) Group CEO and director of Guardian Holdings Limited (GHL) on September 30, 2026. Dominic Rampersad will subsequently assume the role of Chairman of GHL’s Board on October 1. The notice was published pursuant to Section 64(1)(b) of the Securities Act, 2012.
• To support the leadership transition, NCBFG announced several senior appointments as part of its succession plan. Julian Mair will become Group CEO effective November 17, 2026, while Dave Garcia, who assumes the role of Group COO on September 1, will serve as Acting Group CEO from October 1 until Mair takes office. Ky-Ann Taylor will also become Group General Counsel and Corporate Secretary, while Sheree Martin has been confirmed as CEO of National Commercial Bank Jamaica Limited (NCBJ), both effective September 1.
• Alongside the leadership changes, NCBFG continued to reorganise its regional operations. The Group completed the sale of its wholly owned subsidiary, NCB (Cayman) Limited, to Bermuda-based Clarien Bank Limited, while the related transfer of a wealth and investment client portfolio remains subject to outstanding approvals. The intra-group transaction is intended to consolidate NCBFG’s offshore wealth-management operations under the Clarien brand and improve capital efficiency, with no material impact expected on the Group’s earnings or asset base and no disruption to clients. Mr. Almeida will continue to serve as a director of Clarien Bank Limited
• Elsewhere, Image Plus Consultants Ltd. (IPCL) also announced an upcoming governance transition. Independent Director Carolyn DaCosta will resign effective September 30, 2026, at which point she will also step down as Chair of the Remuneration, Corporate Governance & Nominations Committee. However, DaCosta will remain the company’s Mentor until November 30, providing some continuity during the transition. In accordance with Rule 503 of the JSE Junior Market Rules, the Board will advise the Exchange within the ninety-day period of the appointment of a new mentor.
• Beyond the governance changes, Eppley Limited (Eppley) continued its regional expansion thrust with the acquisition of NorthWest Premium Financing Limited (NWPF), a finance company providing insurance premium financing and other speciality loans in Trinidad and Tobago and Grenada. The acquisition extends Eppley’s presence across the Caribbean and broadens its specialty-finance exposure, while providing an opportunity to leverage its existing investment platform to support NWPF’s growth.
• The acquisition also comes against the backdrop of improved H1 2026 earnings for Eppley, with net profit rising 11.0% to J$455Mn. The improvement was supported by a 13.0% increase in gross investment income to J$888Mn, alongside stronger operating lease, rental, interest and asset management income. The performance reinforces the continued expansion of Eppley’s investment platform, with the NWPF acquisition providing another avenue to broaden its earnings base.
• From an investor perspective, the developments reinforce the importance of execution and transparency in shaping near-term sentiment. For MDS, restoring timely financial disclosure will be key to rebuilding visibility, while Eppley’s continued expansion could strengthen its earnings diversification over time, provided the company successfully integrates and scales NWPF and translates its broader regional footprint into sustainable returns.

(Sources: Jamaica Stock Exchange & NCBCM Research)

• United States (U.S.) oil giant Chevron has confirmed that it will significantly expand its operations in Venezuela, with plans to more than double production in the country over the next five years through a US$7Bn joint venture.
• The oil company, the second-largest in the U.S., said on Wednesday, September 2, 2026, that it has been assigned additional acreage in the Orinoco Belt, where it already holds an established position as Venezuela’s largest private oil producer. Chevron’s target of producing 600,000 barrels per day, at total costs of less than $20 per barrel, would represent more than half of Venezuela’s current output, The New York Times reported.
• The announcement comes five days after President Donald Trump said the U.S. had reached a separate agreement to take majority control of a significant portion of Venezuela’s oil reserves, which he said would more than double U.S. oil reserves.
• The latest expansion broadens Chevron’s footprint in Venezuela’s Orinoco Belt, with its 49%-owned Petroindependencia joint venture gaining rights to develop the adjacent Carabobo-1 and Carabobo-2-South-A areas, building on the April agreement that increased Chevron’s interest in the venture and added rights to the Ayacucho 8 area. The additional acreage supports further development of the company’s extra-heavy oil operations, with production across its three Venezuelan joint ventures already up 15% year-to-date.

(Source: Yahoo Finance)

• Antigua and Barbuda is set to increase fuel prices as prolonged conflict between the United States (U.S.) and Iran drives renewed volatility in global petroleum markets. Prime Minister Gaston Browne said the government could no longer sustain the fuel subsidies that had been in place for several months as international energy costs increased.
• Nevertheless, the government opted for a smaller-than-expected increase to limit the impact on consumers, with officials initially estimating that pump prices could rise by around EC$3.50 (US$1.30). Instead, the increase was capped at EC$2.00 (US$0.74) per gallon across the board. Gasoline prices are expected to rise from EC$14.50 to EC$16.50 per gallon, while diesel prices will increase from their current level to EC$16.25 per gallon. Despite the adjustment, Browne said Antigua and Barbuda’s fuel prices would remain below those of several other Caribbean countries.
• The higher fuel costs are also putting pressure on government finances, as the administration has been subsidising fuel while foregoing tax revenues from West Indies Oil Company (WIOC). Browne said the government would normally collect EC$3Mn–EC$4Mn monthly from WIOC but instead accumulated an estimated EC$24Mn in foregone revenues over six months and now owes the company EC$15Mn.
• The price adjustment also comes amid a dispute with gas station operators, who temporarily closed some facilities over demands for higher profit margins. Operators have argued that the 8% margin on fuel sales, largely unchanged since the early 1990s, no longer adequately covers rising costs such as wages, electricity, insurance and maintenance. The shutdowns add another layer of pressure to the fuel market.
• The government’s decision to absorb part of the increase in global oil prices is likely to complicate efforts to rebuild fiscal buffers and reduce public debt. While limiting the pump-price increase to EC$2 per gallon provides some protection to consumers and economic activity, it also comes at a time when public debt remains elevated at an estimated 68% of GDP, with unresolved arrears and high gross financing needs already posing challenges to debt sustainability. A more prolonged oil-price shock could therefore place further pressure on fiscal consolidation while weighing on growth through higher energy and transportation costs.

(Sources: Trinidad Express & NCBCM Research)

• Bank of Japan (BoJ) Governor Kazuo Ueda indicated that policymakers would debate raising interest rates, including at their September meeting, with a focus on whether inflationary risks are increasing, as underlying inflation remains close to the BoJ’s 2.0% target. His remarks signalled a strong chance of a rate hike this month, with markets expecting a 25-basis-point increase to 1.25%, following the increase to 1.00% in June 2026.
• Governor Ueda reiterated that the BoJ intends to continue raising interest rates while financial conditions remain accommodative. However, after five previous rate hikes, he noted that policymakers must carefully assess their cumulative impact on the economy before tightening further.
• While the Governor refrained from committing to a September hike, he indicated that policymakers would assess whether the BoJ’s economic outlook is materialising and whether upside price risks are increasing, both prerequisites for further rate increases.
• Expectations for a September hike were further bolstered after US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent called for “decisive” monetary steps to combat the weak yen during a meeting with Ueda. The Japanese yen also appreciated sharply against the US dollar on September 2, after previously giving up around half of the gains made following the rare joint US-Japan intervention at the end of July.
• The case for a September rate hike has strengthened as the BoJ places greater emphasis on upside inflation risks. Hawkish BoJ board member Hajime Takata also called for the central bank to conduct rate hikes “nimbly” to counter intensifying inflationary pressures, rather than adhering to the roughly semi-annual pace anticipated by markets.

(Source: Reuters)