• On December 2^nd, the House of Representatives approved an Order permitting the temporary suspension of the fiscal rules for an initial period of one year as the country advances its recovery from the impact of Hurricane Melissa.
• Explaining the process for suspending the fiscal rules, Minister of Finance and the Public Service, Hon. Fayval Williams, noted that the Planning Institute of Jamaica (PIOJ) provides its estimate of gross domestic product (GDP) growth, while the Bank of Jamaica (BOJ) presents its outlook on inflation, Net International Reserves (NIR), balance of payments, and the status of the financial sector.
• “This information then becomes the basis for the Ministry to project the Hurricane Melissa impact on tax revenues, impact on expenditure, debt-to-GDP (gross domestic product) ratio and fiscal balance, among the important variables,” she said.
• “This information then goes to the Independent Fiscal Commission, which verifies that the impact of the hurricane on the economy is at least 1.5% of GDP because that is the law that guides suspension of the fiscal rules,” the Minister added.
• Williams informed the Lower House that the Ministry of Finance recently received a report from the Independent Fiscal Commission, entitled ‘Validation of Fiscal Impact of Hurricane Melissa for the Suspension of Fiscal Rules – Financial Year 2025/26’. “It states that, based on the information provided by the Planning Institute of Jamaica (PIOJ) and the Ministry of Finance and the Public Service, the fiscal impact is estimated at 5.3% of GDP over the period fiscal year 2025/26 to fiscal year 2029/30 – well above the legislative threshold of 1.5% to trigger suspension of the fiscal rules,” she stated.
• “As such, the Order… subject to affirmative resolution, will permit the fiscal rules to be temporarily suspended for, at least, an initial period of one year. This is how the law states it. If it warrants an extension, then the Ministry of Finance and the Public Service will present the case,” the Minister added.
• Meanwhile, Mrs. Williams said the debt-to-GDP ratio is projected to rise to 68.2% by the end of fiscal year 2025/26. “If you recall, we ended fiscal year 2024/25 at 62.4% and were on a path to be at 60% by end of this fiscal year, which is two years earlier than planned. In the medium-term, starting with fiscal year 2026/27, we project that the debt to GDP ratio will decline to 66.1%, then to 63.8% followed by 63.4% in fiscal year 2028/29, and then at 64.2% by fiscal year 2029/30,” she stated.

(Source: JIS)

• Since the start of oil production in 2019, Guyana’s economy has not merely grown but has taken off. This can be substantiated by the fact that in 2024, the real Gross Domestic Product (GDP) increased by an impressive 43.6%. In 2022, oil exports accounted for approximately 88% of total domestic exports, while sugar, gold, bauxite, shrimp, fish and fish byproducts, timber and rice contributed approximately 90% of the non-oil exports.
• The country stands as one of the world’s fastest-growing economies. More importantly, although the revenue gained provides an opportunity for the country to strategically attain global prominence through policy strategies and development agenda, overreliance on the sector can heighten the risk of “Dutch disease”, a phenomenon that may undermine the performance of non-oil sectors.
• Moreover, as a Small Island State (SIDs), Guyana faces challenges such as price volatility, limited market size, possibilities of rent-seeking and commodity dependence. As the country navigates the new economic transformation driven by the discovery of its new oil wealth, it is essential to understand the potential role that trade in services can play in Guyana’s diversification and sustainable growth.
• According to a joint report published by the World Trade Organisation (WTO) and the World Bank in 2023, the services sector accounts for half of global employment and two-thirds of global GDP, exceeding the combined contributions of the agricultural and other productive industries. In Guyana, both goods and services trade have maintained a positive relationship with GDP during the period 2005 to 2022. That is, increased international trade in goods and services increased Guyana’s earnings.
• Services such as engineering and logistics, driven mainly by the oil and gas industry, increased nearly fourteen times over the period 2005–2021. However, service exports have remained stagnant. Therefore, the paradox that remains is that Guyana currently has a consistent services trade deficit. Similarly, foreign direct investment (FDI) has largely focused on capital-intensive oil and gas projects, posing a threat of competition for labour and resources within the oil and gas industry, crowding out domestic investment in other sectors. The negative relationship between aggregate FDI and non-oil GDP growth is an indication that oil-based investments may be overshadowing non-oil investments or creating little domestic value.
• Micro, Small and Medium Enterprises (MSMEs) and Small and Medium Enterprises (SMEs) are critical players in addressing the identified gap. As drivers of innovation, sustainable economic growth and adaptive capacity, they have the power to open growth pathways in tourism, digital services and green finance.
• Guyana is leveraging its participation in multiple regional (like CARIFORUM-EU EPA and CARICOM) and bilateral trade agreements to enhance its international services sector, aiming for greater market access and professional mobility (Mode 4), while also exploring innovative strategies like niche heritage/eco-tourism and a regional 'Caribbean Tourism Initiative' to diversify its economy beyond the oil and gas sector.

(Source: Barbados Today)

• Mexico on Wednesday announced it would boost the minimum wage next year and push to trim the country's long work week, the latest moves by the country's leftist administration aimed at helping workers. Starting in January, the minimum wage will rise 13% to 315.04 pesos ($17.27) per day, part of an agreement between labour, business and government leaders, Labour Minister Marath Bolanos said. The daily wage, however, will increase to about 440.87 pesos in parts of northern Mexico near the border with the United States, where wages are higher.
• The 2026 minimum wage increase will bring the accumulated rise in salaries to 154% since 2018, President Claudia Sheinbaum said during her morning press conference. Sheinbaum, who took office just over a year ago, has supported the wage hikes championed by her predecessor and mentor, Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador, and has argued they have helped reduce poverty significantly.
• Sheinbaum on Wednesday said the decision had been taken after consulting with the finance ministry and the central bank, as well as with the business community. She has pushed back against critics who argue that a new double-digit boost will harm consumers by pushing prices higher.
• Some analysts, as well as Central Bank Deputy Governor Jonathan Heath, have warned that bringing the minimum wage too close to the median salary could fuel inflation, even though annual headline inflation is currently within a percentage point of the bank's 3% target, after a series of interest-rate cuts since early 2024. The measure comes after Mexico's economy contracted 0.3% in the third quarter, as a slowdown in industrial activity drove the economy's first year-on-year quarterly decline since 2021.
• Mexico's economy has been weighed down by the impact of U.S. President Donald Trump’s on-again, off-again tariffs and uncertainty over the upcoming review of the United States-Mexico-Canada trade agreement (USMCA) next year. The government on Wednesday also said it was sending a bill to Congress to incrementally trim the working week from 48 hours a week to 40 hours per week by 2030. If passed, the official working week limit would be reduced by two hours a year starting in 2027.
• The 40-hour work week was a key promise during Sheinbaum's 2024 campaign but has been stalled amid pushback from business leaders. The average Mexican worker worked 2,193 hours in 2024, significantly more than workers in any other OECD country, according to OECD data.

(Sources: Reuters)

• Oil prices were steady on Thursday, December 4, 2025, with the market focused on Ukraine's attacks on Russian oil assets, while stalled peace talks tempered expectations of a deal restoring Russian oil flows. Brent crude rose 24 cents, or 0.4%, to $62.91 in the early morning, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate rose 33 cents, or 0.6%, to $59.28.
• Ukraine hit the Druzhba oil pipeline in Russia's central Tambov region, a Ukrainian military intelligence source said on Wednesday, the fifth attack on the pipeline that sends Russian oil to Hungary and Slovakia. The pipeline operator and Hungary's oil and gas company later said supplies were moving through the pipeline as normal.
• "Ukraine’s drone campaign against Russian refining infrastructure has shifted into a more sustained and strategically coordinated phase," consultancy Kpler said in a research report. "This has pushed Russian refining throughput down to around 5 million barrels per day (bpd) between September and November, a 335,000 bpd year-on-year decline, with gasoline hit hardest and gasoil output also materially weaker," the report added.
• The perception that progress on a peace plan for Ukraine was stalling also supported prices, after U.S. President Donald Trump's representatives emerged from peace talks with the Kremlin with no specific breakthroughs on ending the war. Trump said it was unclear what happens now. Previously, expectations of an end to the war had pressured prices lower, as traders anticipated a deal would involve ending sanctions on Russia and allow Russian oil back into an already oversupplied global market.
• Meanwhile, U.S. crude and fuel inventories rose last week as refining activity picked up, the Energy Information Administration said on Wednesday. Crude inventories rose by 574,000 barrels to 427.5 million barrels in the week ended November 28th, the EIA said, compared with analysts' expectations in a Reuters poll for an 821,000-barrel draw.
• Fitch Ratings on Thursday cut its 2025-2027 oil price assumptions to reflect market oversupply and production growth that is expected to outstrip demand. In 2026 and 2027, Brent crude is expected to decline to 63USD/bbl from 65USD/bbl previously, West Texas Intermediate (WTI) is also expected to decline to 58USD/bbl from 60USD/bbl, while Henry Hub is expected to remain unchanged at 3.50USD/mcf before declining to 3.00USD/mcf in 2027.

(Source: Reuters)

• Layoffs announced by United States (U.S.) employers fell sharply in November, but hiring intentions continued to lag as businesses navigated an uncertain economic environment against the backdrop of tariffs on imports and slowing demand.
• Global outplacement firm Challenger, Gray & Christmas said on Thursday, December 4, 2025, planned job cuts declined 53% to 71,321 last month from October. They were, however, 24% higher compared to the same period last year. November's tally was also the largest for the month since 2022.
• So far this year, employers have announced about 1.171 million job cuts, up 54% relative to the first eleven (11) months of 2024. In contrast, planned hires totalled only 497,151, the lowest year-to-date total since 2010, and down 35% compared to the same period in 2024.
• But the jump in planned layoffs so far this year has not translated into a surge in first-time applications for state unemployment benefits, keeping the labour market in what policymakers and economists call a "no fire, no hire" state. Labour market stagnation has been blamed on reduced labour supply amid a reduction in immigration that started during the final year of former President Joe Biden's term and accelerated under President Donald Trump's administration.
• The integration of artificial intelligence (AI) into some job roles is also eroding demand for labour, with most of the hit landing on entry-level positions. Economists also said Trump's trade policy had created an uncertain economic environment that has hamstrung the ability of businesses, especially small enterprises, to hire.

(Source: Reuters)

• Food prices growth could, at a minimum, exceed 10% in Jamaica over the next year, according to a December 3 report by Fitch. The agency’s forecast is within the context of the scale of the damage from Melissa.
• Fitch also noted that as Jamaica embarks on its long economic recovery, it expects that the Bank of Jamaica (BOJ) will maintain the policy rate at 5.75% through year-end 2025 and into H1 2026 as real interest rates turn negative¹. It noted that while real rates will turn negative – making policy very loose – the BoJ’s credible inflation-targeting regime and well-anchored inflation expectations will give it space to navigate the temporary supply shock.
• “Indeed, the BoJ’s interventions in the foreign exchange market to keep the exchange rate steady and ensure the affordability of imports will be a primary tool to limit inflationary pressures. With the Bank of Jamaica explicitly stating that the domestic fiscal policy stance poses inflationary risk in the near term, we expect that the vast majority of the needed post-Hurricane economic stimulus will come through fiscal channels rather than monetary policy easing”, the report noted. However, as the recovery progresses and price pressures moderate slightly, it also sees room for a 25bp cut in Q4 2026 to support domestic demand, lowering the rate from 5.75% to 5.50%.
• Still, the report cited that risks to Jamaica’s inflation and interest rate outlook are heightened and skewed to the upside. Given the unprecedented nature of Hurricane Melissa and the severe destruction wrought to the country’s productive assets and infrastructure, inflation could remain elevated for a longer period and at a higher level. This, in turn, could prompt the central bank to leave the interest rate unchanged, or even increase the policy rate to counteract domestic price pressures.
• Further, despite efforts to support the currency and reduce imported inflation, unexpected fluctuations in global energy and commodity prices could quickly feed into Jamaica’s inflation picture, given the increased reliance that Jamaica’s beleaguered economy will have on imported goods during hurricane recovery.

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¹When prices (inflation) are rising faster than the interest rate offered by banks or the central bank's policy rate, the real rate becomes negative. This means that money saved loses purchasing power over time, effectively encouraging spending and borrowing.

(Source: BMI, a Fitch Solutions Company)

• The Rural Agricultural Development Authority (RADA) is implementing a structured, three-fold, two-year recovery plan for Jamaica’s agricultural sector following estimated damage of over US$30.0Bn from Hurricane Melissa. The plan spans immediate, medium-term and long-term interventions and mobilises RADA’s full technical, extension and engineering teams, while leveraging partnerships among key agencies, farmer groups and the private sector.
• Immediate actions, to be implemented over the first three months after the hurricane’s passage, involve emergency interventions and damage assessments. Within the first 90 days, RADA conducted rapid damage assessments across all 14 parishes and distributed more than US$40.0Mn in materials, including seeds, fertilisers and planting materials, while also commencing six months of free land preparation services, including ploughing, tilling and land clearing to help farmers replant faster.
• Additional short-term support measures include the recent handover of six walk-behind tractors, with another four tractors dispatched into service, alongside the procurement of US$50.0Mn worth of seeds expected to impact some 1,000 hectares of vegetables, roots and tubers in strategic zones, and the start of distribution of more than 500,000 sweet potato slips and other clean planting material.
• Medium-term interventions (three to 12 months) will focus on rehabilitation of infrastructure, farmer training and supply-chain restoration, while long-term interventions (12 to 24 months) will centre on building climate resilience, diversifying production and modernising farm systems, as part of a broader effort to strengthen the sector beyond its pre-hurricane condition.
• As it relates to the loss of vegetable crops in St. Elizabeth, Westmoreland and other parishes, RADA has shifted production to the eastern part of the island, where farmers were less affected and are willing to produce to make up for the shortfall.

(Source: JIS)

• The Bahamian economy continued its moderate growth trajectory in October, maintaining stability amid shifting tourism patterns and evolving financial conditions.
• The Central Bank, in its Monthly Economic and Financial Developments report for October, noted that while high-value stopover tourism faced capacity constraints and softer demand from the United States market, cruise arrivals delivered robust gains, highlighting the sector’s resilience.
• Data from the Nassau Airport Development Company Limited revealed that total outbound departures, excluding domestic travellers, rose marginally by 0.1% to 91,022 in October compared to the same period last year. Non-United States international departures increased 2.8% to 16,159, while United States departures declined 0.4% per cent to 74,863. On a year-to-date basis, total outbound traffic dropped 2.4% to 1.3Mn, primarily due to a 3.5% fall in United States departures.
• Meanwhile, domestic financial indicators showed both challenges and opportunities as the banking sector adjusted to changes in liquidity, credit and deposits.
• Monetary developments in October highlighted a contraction in banking sector liquidity, even as domestic credit declined at a faster pace than deposits. Excess reserves fell by $90Mn, exceeding the prior year’s reduction of $61.1Mn, while broad liquidity measures declined by $76.6Mn. Despite these pressures, external reserves strengthened, rising $123Mn to $2.93Mn, supported by government borrowing and net foreign currency inflows from private sector activities.
• Similarly, foreign currency flows showed mixed trends, with total outflows for current account transactions increasing by $2.80Mn to $518Mn. Outflows for non-oil imports, oil imports, and transfer payments rose, while factor income remittances and travel-related expenses decreased slightly.
• Domestic credit trends were also notable. Total Bahamian dollar credit fell $179.6Mn, driven by a sharp decline in net claims on the government, yet private sector credit grew $43.1Mn, underpinned by $24.2Mn in commercial loans and $16Mn in consumer credit. Mortgage growth slowed to $2.9Mn, while credit to public corporations remained largely unchanged. Credit quality showed some pressure from short-term arrears, which increased $3Mn to $454.9Mn, though non-performing loans decreased $5.4Mn to $307.7Mn.
• Notwithstanding, delinquency ratios for mortgages, commercial loans, and consumer loans all improved, reflecting overall sector resilience. Banks reduced provisions for credit losses by $5Mn to $263.4Mn and managed write-offs and recoveries efficiently.

(Source: Eyewitness News)

• Tourism Minister David Collado reported that the Dominican Republic welcomed 10,284,251 visitors as of November 30, 2025. This is 52% more than in 2019, when the country received 6.7Mn tourists. This growth occurred despite losing around 600,000 annual visitors from Russia and Ukraine due to the ongoing war.
• From January to November, air arrivals reached 7,884,421, marking a growth of 3% over 2014 and 35% over 2019, while cruise arrivals climbed to 2,399,833, also up 3%. Of these visitors, 6,585,380 were foreigners (+2%), and 1,299,041 were Dominicans with international passports (+8%).
• The record-breaking performance generated employment for over 800,000 people across tourism, agriculture, and commerce, contributing US$16.78Bn to GDP and RD$73.6Bn¹ to the government for essential services such as education, health, and infrastructure.

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¹RD$73.60Bn, where RD represents 1 Dominican Pesos.

(Source: Dominican Today)

• United States (U.S.) core import prices were unexpectedly unchanged in September as high costs for consumer goods, excluding motor vehicles, were offset by cheaper energy products. The report was delayed by a record 43-day shutdown of the government.
• According to the Labour Department's Bureau of Labour Statistics on Wednesday, December 3, 2025, in the 12 months through September, import prices increased 0.3%, marking the first year-on-year rise since March and followed a 0.1% dip in August. Economists polled by Reuters had forecast import prices, which exclude tariffs, rising 0.1% after a previously reported 0.3% advance in August.
• Of note, imported fuel prices dropped 1.5% in September after easing 0.5% in August. Natural gas prices declined 3.0% and food prices decreased 0.8%. Core import prices, which exclude fuels and food, rose 0.3%, the same margin as in August. In the 12 months through September, they advanced 0.8%. This partly reflects dollar weakness against the currencies of the main U.S. trade partners. The trade-weighted dollar is down about 5.6% this year.
• The pass-through from tariffs to consumer prices has so far been modest, with economists saying businesses were opting to absorb the duties. Economists, however, continue to expect an acceleration in the pass-through pace, arguing that a continued decline in margins at businesses was unsustainable and could hamper spending on capital and labour. Meanwhile, the government last week reported a surge in producer prices for goods in September, mostly driven by higher food and energy costs.
• Federal Reserve officials are scheduled to meet next week to discuss interest rates, where still high inflation, coupled with the need to ease labour pressures, has created market uncertainty. Of the 12 voting policymakers on the Federal Open Market Committee, the central bank's rate-setting panel, as many as five have expressed opposition or scepticism about further rate cuts. Meanwhile, a core group of three members from the Washington-based Board of Governors is advocating for a decrease in rates.

(Source: Reuters)