• With the fiscal pressures arising from ongoing hurricane recovery efforts and the passage of the government's FY2026/2027 budget in early 2026, Jamaica's fiscal deficit is expected to widen significantly, from -2.8% of GDP in FY2025 to -4.9% of GDP in FY2026.
• The expansion will be driven primarily by an uptick in expenditures related to ongoing hurricane recovery efforts, projected to rise from 35.5% of GDP in FY2025 to 37.1% in FY2026, well above historical averages, before returning towards trend, as the government reimposes its fiscal rules and growth resumes over the medium term.
• On the revenue side, Jamaica has enacted its first tax increase in nearly a decade to support recovery efforts, introducing a suite of new measures, including vice taxes on alcohol, sugary drinks and cigarettes; a consumption tax on digital imports; and other levies. The decision to remove the fuel-price cap will help to mitigate fiscal pressure arising from the US-Iran conflict and rising energy prices.
• In response to rising fuel costs since the onset of the US-Iran war, in April 2026, the Jamaican government announced its intention to remove the weekly cap on fuel-price changes to reduce the fiscal burden on Petrojam and Jamaica's public finances. While this will increase domestic price pressures, it will help to alleviate fiscal strain, with revenues set to rise, given the existing consumption tax on fuel, a tailwind to overall fiscal stability.
• BMI forecasts that Jamaica's debt-to-GDP ratio will meet the 60% of GDP target by 2030, which is just a few years behind the FY2025/2026 schedule. While near-term exigencies will see debt rise in the near term, the fiscal balance will return to surplus over the medium term with the reimposition of the fiscal rule and economic recovery – as seen after the COVID-19 pandemic – underpinning Jamaica's sustainable fiscal trajectory despite ongoing shocks.
• Jamaica's recovery will likely be lengthy; however, the country has built meaningful fiscal buffers to withstand natural disasters and fund rebuilding. Should recovery financing needs exceed current allocations, which is likely given the estimated extent of damage, Jamaica's strong fiscal position provides room to increase recovery spending without jeopardising long-term fiscal sustainability. International support for ongoing recovery efforts further bolsters Jamaica's public finances. Assessments from the IMF underpin BMI’s optimistic view, indicating that Jamaica has sufficient buffers to fund ongoing disaster relief efforts.

(Source: BMI, A Fitch Solutions Company)

• Panama managed to stabilise its public finances during 2025 thanks to fiscal consolidation measures implemented by the government, according to Moody’s Ratings’ most recent periodic review report. However, the agency warned that the fiscal adjustment relied heavily on a sharp reduction in capital spending, a strategy that poses challenges to long-term economic sustainability.  The report confirms that the deficit of the Non-Financial Public Sector (NFPS) was reduced to 3.7% of Gross Domestic Product (GDP), a significant improvement compared to the 6.2% recorded in 2024 and below the legal limit of 4.0% established by Panamanian fiscal regulations.
• The rating agency believes that the fiscal performance reflects a greater management capacity on the part of the Panamanian authorities and a partial recovery of budgetary discipline. The adjustment brought Panama’s fiscal indicators closer to those observed in countries with a similar credit rating, temporarily strengthening the State’s financial position.
• Technical analysis reveals that the reduction in public spending exceeded the equivalent of 2% of GDP and was mainly concentrated on the halting of new state infrastructure projects and the restructuring of works that were already underway. 
• Despite the warnings, the rating agency maintained Panama’s sovereign rating at Baa3, the lowest level within investment grade.  However, the outlook remains negative, reflecting the existence of risks that could affect the country’s credit rating if the fiscal progress achieved is not consolidated. 
• The report also highlights that public finance started 2026 with favourable results.  During the first quarter of the year, the fiscal deficit stood at just 1.4% of GDP, driven by strong tax collection and strict control of current spending.  This performance strengthens expectations that Panama can meet the 3.5% deficit target set by the fiscal rule by the end of the year.
• Despite the progress, Moody’s warns that Panama faces significant structural challenges related to budget rigidity and limited capacity to generate tax revenue. The agency concludes that the evolution of tax reforms and the government’s ability to maintain budgetary discipline will be determining factors in preserving the country’s investment-grade rating.  Although it acknowledges significant progress in fiscal consolidation, Moody’s believes that Panama must demonstrate that it can sustainably reduce the deficit without compromising the public investment needed to boost long-term economic growth

(Source: Newsroom Panama)

• Mexico received a mixed report from the Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) this week, as the intergovernmental policy forum joined other recent prognosticators in lowering the GDP growth outlook for the rest of this year but boosting the forecast for next year from 1.7% to 1.8%.
• In cutting Mexico’s expected 2026 growth rate from 1.3% to 0.8%, the OECD cited economic policy uncertainty, trade tariffs and fiscal consolidation. The forecast was included in the OECD’s June Economic Outlook for Mexico, in which it projected that the Mexican economy will maintain moderate growth, supported mainly by domestic demand and private consumption, and favoured by low unemployment. It added that lower interest rates “will gradually boost private investment, but recovery will be gradual against a backdrop of persistent national and international uncertainty.” The forecast also sees inflation gradually moderating to 3.2% by 2027.
• While the report acknowledged the solid growth that marked the end of 2025, it pointed out that economic activity weakened sharply at the beginning of 2026, registering a 0.6% quarterly contraction of gross domestic product. The latest Economic Outlook represented a 0.5% reduction from the OECD’s previous forecast, issued in March. At that time, the organisation suggested Mexico needed to continue reducing the fiscal deficit through good-faith measures on both the expenditure and revenue sides.
• The OECD also urges boosting revenues and improving the quality of public spending to safeguard fiscal sustainability and create more room for productivity-enhancing public spending.

(Source: Mexico News Daily)

• Blackstone has capped withdrawals at its flagship private credit fund as redemption requests rose in the second quarter, the world's largest alternative asset manager said on Thursday, following many peers. Investors sought to pull out 10% of shares in the second quarter, compared with 7.9% in the previous quarter, from the $79 billion Blackstone Private Credit Fund (BCRED). It limited withdrawals to 5%, the customary threshold for these vehicles.
• The attempts to cash out indicate wealthy individuals are continuing a recent retreat after many years of piling into funds that give them exposure to assets that rarely trade. They pulled more money out of funds like BCRED at the beginning of this year than they put in, a first for the asset class. While most fund managers had capped redemptions at 5% in the first quarter, Blackstone raised the threshold to pay back all the money requested. The company and some employees pooled money to help meet all the redemption requests.
• Blackstone said the limits were deliberate and designed to replace immediate access to capital with the prospect of better long-term returns. “BCRED's structure is a fundamental feature, with investors exchanging some liquidity at times for long-term outperformance,” it said in a statement. Analysts said the requests were in line with or lower than they expected, but flagged concerns about continued investor demand for the funds. “We think 10% is better than feared,” Evercore analysts said in a note, comparing the increasing redemptions with those seen at a $31.3 billion Cliffwater fund earlier this week.
• Non-traded business development companies (BDCs), like BCRED, generally offer to buy back some shares every quarter. But fewer new buyers came into the fund in the period, leading to net outflows of about 3% of the fund. Blackstone's shares rose 8%, with many peers following suit. The stock had fallen on Wednesday after Switzerland's Partners Group limited redemptions from a private equity fund and investors braced for more.
• BCRED remains well capitalised, with loan repayments combined with inflows outpacing share repurchases, the fund said. Its Class I shares have delivered a 9.3% annualised total return since inception, which the firm said represents a 50.0% premium to leveraged loans.
• BCRED's latest redemption window, via its tender offer, ran from May 1 to May 29, with repurchase requests slowing in the latter half of that period. More broadly, redemption windows at key U.S. non-traded private credit funds for the second quarter began closing last Friday, and market participants are now watching the results. A top asset-management executive said last week that requests are expected to remain high throughout the year, while fellow competitors like Partners Group also flagged more withdrawal requests.

(Source: Reuters)

• The number of Americans classified as long-term unemployed — jobless for at least 27 weeks — has climbed above 1.8 million on average this year, up about 45% from 2019 and 55% from 2023, a CNBC analysis of Bureau of Labour Statistics data found. The long-term unemployed account for roughly one out of every four jobless workers, according to the latest available U.S. government data.
• Long-term unemployment can have ramifications on financial, emotional and family health that linger even after workers reenter the workforce. “It tells us a lot about economic health,” said Cory Stahle, an economist at job site Indeed. “It tells us about how good of a job the labour320 market is doing at absorbing people.”
• Long-term unemployed workers' pay was approximately 32% lower after a decade than those who had not lost work, according to a working paper from the Boston Federal Reserve. Those unemployed for shorter periods took a 9% cut over the same time frame. Studies also show a possible link between long-term unemployment and depression, with a Pew Research report finding the long-term unemployed were over twice as likely to seek professional help for depression or other mental health challenges than those out of work for under three months.
• Research shows unemployment can negatively impact families and communities — parental job loss increases the chance a child repeats a grade by about 15%, and communities with a larger share of long-term unemployed people have higher rates of crime and violence, the Urban Institute reported.
• A rising number of long-term unemployed workers is a feature of the “low-hire, low-fire” labour market, according to Indeed's Stahle, with job opening and hiring rates tumbling from pandemic-era peaks. The group also includes new college graduates struggling to land first roles; recent graduates' unemployment rate was 5.6%, outpacing the broader 4.2% average, according to the New York Fed. The national economy could suffer as more people stay jobless longer and curtail spending, which makes up about two-thirds of U.S. gross domestic product.

(Source: CNBC)

• After multiple delays in publication, Dolphin Cove Limited (DCOVE) released its Audited Financial Statements for the year ended December 31, 2025 (FY2025), reporting a net loss of US$2.34Mn, a sharp reversal from the US$1.83Mn profit recorded in FY2024. The deterioration was driven by lower revenues on the back of hurricane-related disruptions, along with a substantial impairment charge against related party balances amid the ongoing bankruptcy proceedings involving its parent company.
• Hurricane Melissa, which forced the temporary closure of several tourism properties and Dolphin Cove locations, along with a decline in visitor arrivals, contributed to the decline in the company’s topline. Revenues declined by 14.5% to US$13.09Mn, reflecting contractions across both major revenue streams. Programme revenue fell by 21.3%, while ancillary services revenue decreased by 7.9%. Management noted that the storm significantly disrupted hotel occupancy, cruise passenger arrivals, and park operations, particularly in Western Jamaica.
• Although direct costs declined by 11.9% to US$2.08Mn, the reduction was insufficient to offset weaker revenues, resulting in gross profit falling by 14.9% to US$11.01Mn. Gross margins also fell modestly to 84.1% from 84.6%. Additional pressure came from losses on the disposal of property, plant and equipment and live assets, which together amounted to US$0.23Mn during the year.
• That said, operating expenses were relatively stable, decreasing by just 1.1% to US$9.79Mn. Selling expenses provided some relief, declining by 10.5%, while administrative and other operating expenses increased modestly by 0.6% and 4.7%, respectively. This, however, was not enough to offset the lower topline.
• Furthermore, a significant non-cash charge emerged during the year as the company recognised a US$2.82Mn impairment provision against related party receivables. The provision primarily relates to balances owed by affiliated entities within the Dolphin Discovery group. It followed Chapter 11 bankruptcy filings by Controladora Dolphin, S.A. de C.V., the DCOVE’s intermediate parent and the ultimate parent company, TDC Leisure Investments Holdings LLC. It also included a full provision against funds advanced for a proposed Dolphin Encounter Park in St. Lucia, where no meaningful progress was made during the year. Given the uncertainty surrounding the proceedings and the recoverability of balances owed by related parties, management elected to increase provisions against these receivables. Consequently, the company moved from an operating profit of US$2.94Mn in FY2024 to an operating loss of US$1.80Mn in FY2025.
• Looking ahead, management expects operating conditions to improve throughout 2026 as tourism activity normalises and hurricane-related operational disruptions subside. That said, a key downside risk to this outlook is the possibility of continued weakness in tourism demand if the conflict in the Middle East becomes protracted, leading to sustained elevated fuel costs and broader inflationary pressures. Higher travel costs and reduced consumer discretionary spending could dampen visitor arrivals and delay the pace of recovery in the company's operating performance. Furthermore, the company remains exposed to uncertainties regarding the Chapter 11 proceedings involving its parent group and the ultimate recovery of related-party balances.
• DCOVE’s stock price has declined by 15.2% since the start of the year to close at $10.18 on Wednesday, June 3, 2026. At this level, the stock trades at a price-to-book (P/B) ratio of 0.9x, which is below the Junior Market Others Sector average of 1.7x.

(Sources: Company Financials & NCBCM Research)

• The Jamaica Stock Exchange (JSE) has suspended trading in the ordinary shares of Derrimon Trading Company Limited (DTL) after the company failed to submit its audited financial statements for the year ended December 31, 2025 (FY2025) within the timeframe stipulated under Junior Market rules.
• According to the JSE, the audited financial statements, which were due on March 2, 2026, became ninety-two (92) days overdue on June 2, 2026, triggering an automatic suspension of trading under Junior Market Rule Appendix 2, Part 4 (2)(e). As a result, investors will be unable to trade DTL shares until the company files the outstanding audited results and the suspension is lifted.
• The suspension follows an earlier disclosure by Derrimon that the release of its FY2025 audited financial statements would be delayed after matters requiring further review were identified during the year-end audit process. The company indicated that questions arose regarding information generated from its Enterprise Resource Planning (ERP) system, prompting its external auditors to engage specialist resources to conduct additional assessments.
• Management stated that the review is intended to determine the nature, extent, and potential impact of the issues identified and that the Board considered it prudent to complete the process before releasing the audited financial statements. The company has maintained that its operations remain unaffected and that it continues to work closely with its auditors to finalise the review and complete the audit process.
• At the time of its delay announcement, Derrimon indicated that it expects to publish its FY2025 audited financial statements by June 30, 2026. Until then, the company's shares are expected to remain suspended from trading on the JSE.
• Prior to the suspension, DTL's shares closed at J$1.46 on June 2, 2026, representing a year-to-date decline of 9.3%. At that price, the stock traded at a price-to-book ratio of 1.31x, below the Junior Market Distribution Sector average of 3.92x.

(Sources: JSE & NCBCM Research)

• The Government of Jamaica (GOJ) has approved a 16% fare increase for public passenger vehicle (PPV) operators, marking the first fare adjustment since October 2023 and bringing long-awaited relief to transport operators who have argued that rising operating costs have eroded profitability.
• The increase, which had originally been scheduled for implementation in April 2024, will take effect in two phases. An initial 8% increase became effective June 2, 2026, with a further 8% adjustment scheduled for July 1st. According to Minister of Energy, Transport and Telecommunications, Daryl Vaz, the phased implementation was designed to balance the financial pressures facing operators while limiting the immediate impact on commuters.
• The adjustment fulfils a commitment made by the Government in 2023 when a 35% fare increase was approved for operators. At the time, only the first phase, a 19% increase, was implemented, while the remaining 16%, which was set to be executed in April 2024, was deferred amid concerns about elevated inflationary pressures. The increase was subsequently delayed further due to adverse economic conditions, likely to include the effects of Hurricanes Beryl and Melissa.
• For commuters, the increase will translate into higher transportation costs across the island. The fare adjustment will also carry implications for inflation. Transportation costs form an important component of Jamaica's Consumer Price Index (CPI), and previous fare increases have had a noticeable impact on headline inflation.
• Following the 19% PPV fare increase implemented in October 2023, Jamaica's monthly inflation rate accelerated to 1.6% in November, the highest monthly reading for that calendar year, as the Transport Index surged 9.9%. Transport costs also contributed to point-to-point inflation rising to 6.9% by December 2023, above the Bank of Jamaica's 4%-6% target range.
• Consequently, while the phased approach may have helped to soften the immediate impact on consumers, the increase is still likely to place some upward pressure on inflation in the coming months as higher transportation costs filter through the economy. The extent of that impact will likely be closely monitored by the Bank of Jamaica, particularly given the ongoing U.S.-Iran war and policymakers' efforts to keep inflation within the central bank's target range.

(Sources: JIS, STATIN &  NCBCM Research)

• The tourism sector maintained its growth momentum through April, supported by continued strength in cruise arrivals and gains in the high-value-added stopover segment during the review period. This is according to the Central Bank of The Bahamas’s (CBOB) latest Monthly Economic and Financial Developments (MEFD) report for April.
• The report indicates that economic activity remained above its long-term trend, with tourism continuing to be the primary driver of growth despite ongoing capacity constraints in parts of the stopover market. “The domestic economy’s growth momentum was sustained at a healthy pace during April, vis-à-vis the comparable 2025 period,” the CBOB highlighted.
• The MEFD report explains that data from the Nassau Airport Development Company (NAD) showed total international departures from Lynden Pindling International Airport increased by 5.3% to 163,582 passengers in April, compared to the same month last year.
• It adds that the strongest gains came from markets outside the US, with non-US departures rising by 42.6% to 31,990 passengers. US departures, however, declined by 1% to 131,592 passengers.
• The Central Bank’s data reveals that during the first four months of the year, total outbound traffic increased by 4.8% to approximately 600,000 passengers. On a year-to-date basis, total room nights sold grew by 10.5%, with gains recorded across both entire-place and hotel-comparable listings. The CBOB also noted that broader monetary conditions remained supportive of economic growth during April. The report also notes that the country’s external reserves strengthened during the review period.

(Source: Trinidad Express)

• Crude oil production offshore Guyana averaged 903,000 barrels per day (b/d) in April 2026, a modest decline from 910,000 b/d in March, according to government data. Output from the four ExxonMobil-operated projects in the Stabroek Block totalled approximately 27 million barrels during the month, down from 28.2 million barrels in March.
• Despite a month-over-month decline, Guyana's crude oil production remained near record levels, exceeding 109 million barrels during the first four months of 2026 and averaging approximately 911,000 b/d, with April production distributed across Liza 1 (122,000 b/d), Liza 2 (259,000 b/d), Payara (261,000 b/d), and Yellowtail (262,000 b/d).
• The latest figures continue a gradual decline at the Liza 1 project, Guyana’s first offshore development, while the newer projects maintain output above their original nameplate capacities following optimisation work carried out by ExxonMobil.
• April’s average daily output was the lowest monthly average recorded so far this year. However, the broader trend remains one of sustained high production, supported by strong performance across the Stabroek Block’s newer developments. Elevated crude prices have also helped support revenue generation for Guyana. Oil markets have remained sensitive to geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, contributing to stronger prices and higher receipts from crude sales and royalties.
• Further production growth is expected before the end of the year. ExxonMobil is anticipated to undertake production optimisation work at the Yellowtail development, which could increase output from the project to approximately 290,000 b/d. The next major increase in national production is expected to come from the Uaru development, which is scheduled to begin production this year. The project is designed to add roughly 250,000 b/d of new capacity, pushing Guyana’s total oil production capability above the one million b/d threshold.
• All offshore oil production in Guyana currently comes from the Stabroek Block, where ExxonMobil serves as operator with a 45% interest. Its partners are Hess, now part of Chevron, with 30%, and CNOOC with 25%.

(Source: OilNow Guyana)