• Local Consumer prices rose 0.8% in September, according to the Statistical Institute of Jamaica (STATIN). This upward movement was primarily driven by the ‘Food and Non-Alcoholic Beverages’ (+0.9%), ‘Housing, Water, Electricity, Gas and Other Fuels’ (+1.0%), and ‘Education’ (+5.6%) divisions.
• The outturn in the Food division was influenced mainly by higher prices for some agricultural produce in the class ‘Vegetables, tubers, plantains, cooking bananas, and pulses’. Higher housing, water and fuel prices reflected increased electricity rates and rental costs, while education costs rose on the back of higher tuition fees for private schools at the primary level for the new school term.
• Despite the month-on-month increase, the point-to-point (P2P) inflation rate remains below the Bank of Jamaica’s (BOJ’s) target range (4.0-6.0%). The 12-month point-to-point (P2P) was 2.1%, influenced primarily by increases in ‘Housing, Water, Electricity, Gas and Other Fuels’ (+4.8%), ‘Restaurant and Accommodation Services’ (+4.1%) and ‘Food and Non-Alcoholic Beverages’ (+0.7%). The division ‘Information and Communication’ (-5.8%) moderated the growth in P2P.
• Despite broad market expectations for a reduction in the benchmark rate, the BOJ’s Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) unanimously voted to leave its policy rate at 5.75% against the background of low headline inflation amid global uncertainties at its meetings on September 25th and 26th.
• At that time, the BoJ emphasised that the forces driving historically low headline inflation were temporary, arising largely from strong base effects and policy changes. It also indicated that it will increasingly monitor core inflation, a less volatile indicator that has remained within the BoJ’s target since April 2023, as a key input into its monetary policy decisions. The next policy announcement is set for November 20, 2025, and Fitch Solutions maintains the view that the BOJ will reduce rates in Q4 2025.

(Sources: STATIN and BMI, A Fitch Solutions Company)

• On October 15, 2025, Caribbean Information and Credit Rating Services Limited (CariCRIS) reaffirmed the corporate credit ratings for Seprod Limited (Seprod or the Group). The ratings assigned are CariA (Local Currency Rating) on the regional scale, jmAA- (Local Currency Rating), and jmA+ (Foreign Currency Rating) on the Jamaica national scale. The CariA and jmA+ ratings indicate that Seprod's creditworthiness is good compared to other issuers in the Caribbean and Jamaica, while the jmAA- rating indicates that Seprod’s creditworthiness is high relative to other issuers in Jamaica.
• However, CariCRIS assigned a negative outlook on Seprod’s ratings. The negative outlook reflects the high likelihood that Seprod’s financial flexibility will remain constrained over the next 12-15 months. This is underpinned by Seprod’s increasing debt levels needed to support acquisition-led growth and meet working capital requirements.
• As a result, Seprod’s effective debt servicing coverage ratio (DSCR) is likely to remain challenged. However, if the Group successfully refinances its near-term obligations, it is expected that Seprod’s debt servicing ratios will improve. Despite these challenges, the Group is projected to maintain profitable operations and comfortably service its debt in a timely manner over the next 12 to 15 months.
• Factors that could individually or collectively lead to a decrease in the rating or outlook for Seprod include a decline in the credit rating of the Government of Jamaica over the next 12 to 15 months; a sustained reduction in the Profit after Tax (PAT) margin below 3% for two consecutive years (2.5% for FY2024); or the Group's effective DSCR remaining below 1 for another year.
• That said, Seprod’s ratings are supported by its strong market position, underpinned by a diversified portfolio of products and a well-established distribution network across the Caribbean. The Group’s solid financial performance continues to reinforce the ratings, despite persistently constrained debt protection metrics and lower profitability reported (-42.03% YoY) in 2024.
• Overall, the ratings reflect Seprod’s integrated business model and robust corporate governance practices, backed by a competent management team. However, ongoing global economic uncertainty poses potential risks to earnings and profitability, despite generally favourable economic conditions in its primary markets.

(Sources: CariCRIS & NCBCM Research)

• The European Union countries have approved maintaining Panama, Russia, and nine other jurisdictions on their tax haven blacklists, after finding that they continue to fail to cooperate in this area or have failed to implement the reforms they had committed to. 
• The list, specifically, consists of American Samoa, Anguilla, Fiji, Guam, Palau, Panama, Russia, Samoa, Trinidad and Tobago, the American Virgin Islands, and Vanuatu, according to a statement from the EU Council, the institution in which the Member States are represented. “Although there have been some positive developments in this round of updates, the Council regrets that these jurisdictions are still not fully cooperating on tax issues and encourages them to improve their legal framework to address the identified problems,” the institution explained.
• This is the second time this repertoire has been updated without any changes, after the revision last February also kept these eleven jurisdictions in the same list.  The list, which has been in operation since 2017 and is updated every six months, includes jurisdictions that fail to meet EU standards on tax transparency, tax fairness, or the implementation of international standards to prevent tax base erosion or profit shifting, and that also fail to take steps to address these problems.
• Listing on it does not entail financial penalties, beyond a ban on European funds transiting through entities based in these jurisdictions and administrative measures such as more frequent audits, although states can decide at the national level to impose other types of penalties.

(Source: Newsroom Panama)

• The Bank of Mexico should be more cautious in cutting interest rates, given the current scenario of sticky core inflation and headline inflation still above target, deputy governor Jonathan Heath said.
• The central bank has cut borrowing costs for ten straight meetings, most recently delivering a quarter percentage cut last month that Heath opposed. While the annual headline inflation sits within the Bank of Mexico's target range of 3%, plus or minus a percentage point, the goal is to get it to 3%, Heath said in a podcast by Grupo Financiero Banorte.
• Heath noted that continued increases in labour costs and international food prices were hindering rapid convergence toward the 3% inflation target. Core inflation, meanwhile, a closely watched indicator of price trends that strips out highly volatile prices like food and energy, ticked up to 4.28% in September - "showing no sign that it wants to go down," Heath said.
• The annual headline rate sped up in September to 3.76%, according to official data; however, the central bank estimates the rate will hit 3% in the third quarter of next year.

(Source: Reuters)

• President Donald Trump’s tariffs are pushing inflation generally higher as companies are caught between absorbing the costs or passing them onto customers, according to a Federal Reserve report on Wednesday.
• The central bank’s periodic Beige Book report, which is published eight times a year, generally at about six-week intervals, categorised overall economic growth as having “changed little” since the last report on Sept. 3. Labour markets “were largely stable” as demand was “muted” for most of the Fed’s 12 districts.
• When it came to prices, though, Trump’s duties implemented in April and then staggered through ensuing months showed an impact. “Prices rose further during the reporting period,” the report stated. “Tariff-induced input cost increases were reported across many Districts, but the extent of those higher costs passing through to final prices varied.”
• In some cases, firms held prices unchanged to stay competitive and to appease inflation-sensitive clients. However, some businesses said they were “fully passing higher import costs along to their customers.”
• The release comes amid a dearth of relevant economic data due to a government shutdown entering its third week. Key providers such as the Labour and Commerce departments are largely closed due to the impasse.
• However, Bureau of Labour Statistics workers have been called back to release the pivotal consumer price index report used both as an inflation gauge and to index cost of living adjustments for Social Security recipients. The CPI reading, which normally would have been released Wednesday, will come out Oct. 24, the last inflation reading the Fed will get before its policy meeting Oct. 28-29.

 (Source: CNBC)

• Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell indicated the central bank is close to concluding its "quantitative tightening" (QT), the reduction of its more than $6 trillion balance sheet, as the system approaches the level of reserves judged to be "somewhat above the level we judge consistent with ample reserve conditions."
• Powell strongly suggested that additional interest rate cuts are likely due to the labour market having "softened pretty considerably," placing the risks of employment losses and unfinished inflation control closer to being in balance.
• The Chair defended the Fed's policy of paying interest on bank reserves, stating that while the Fed has temporary operating losses, eliminating these payments would be a serious mistake that would cause the central bank to "lose control over rates."
• The Federal Reserve's long-stated plan is to cease balance sheet runoff in the coming months once there are indications that liquidity conditions are sufficient, though Powell confirmed the Fed has no plans to return its balance sheet to its pre-Covid size of around $4 trillion.
• The overall economic outlook does not appear to have changed much since the last meeting; however, policymakers are increasingly concerned that the less dynamic and somewhat softer labor market means that the "downside risks to employment appear to have risen."

(Source: CNBC)

• In line with BMI’s expectations, the Jamaican economy expanded by 1.6% year-over-year (y-o-y) in Q2 2025, up from 1.1% in the previous quarter, as it continues to recover from Hurricane Beryl in 2024. Q2 growth was supported by low inflation, growing employment levels, and a historically low unemployment rate.
• Favourable domestic macroeconomic indicators persist in Jamaica, underpinning BMI’s cautiously optimistic outlook for the economy in the near term. Higher-frequency indicators for Q3 2025 also support this view. Consequently, BMI maintained its forecast that Jamaica’s economy will grow by 1.6% in 2025 and by 1.5% in 2026.
• Overall employment in Q3 grew by 2.3% y-o-y, the labour force expanded compared to the year before, and the unemployment rate was steady at 3.3% - a historic low. Remittances have also remained robust in the face of a challenging external environment, growing by 3.6% y-o-y in Q2 and helping support household income and consumption.
• Additionally, relevant production indicators point to growth in H2 2025. Total bauxite production in July grew by 4.5% y-o-y, supported by improved alumina production, driving overall year-to-date growth to 2.7% – a tailwind for the mining industry, which suffered losses in Q2. The reopening of the Alpart plant (closed since 2019) in Q4 2025 will further boost the mining sector.
• For the tourism sector, preliminary estimates also show continued strength in tourism in Q3, with airport arrivals estimated to have increased by 16.5% in July 2025. Finally, Jamaica will benefit from positive storm-related base effects in H2 2025, while an expected reduction in the policy rate in Q4 2025 will support growth through increased investment and consumption.
• Overall, Jamaica’s economic growth in H1 2025 is encouraging, but several risks persist. Ongoing trade uncertainty and weak external demand will likely weigh on the economy through 2025 and into 2026. U.S. immigration policies and new taxes on remittances may reduce these vital flows in the medium term. Extreme weather remains a threat, especially to tourism, agriculture and mining. While crime has dropped significantly – murders are down 40.9% year-to-date as at October 4, 2025 – it remains elevated and could still hinder investment and growth.

(Source: BMI, A Fitch Solutions Company)

• Jamaica’s Minister of Industry, Investment and Commerce, Senator the Hon. Aubyn Hill, is urging the United Kingdom (UK) to explore a special visa scheme aimed at easing the movement of Jamaican and Caribbean service professionals within the United Kingdom.
• Senator Hill proposed that such an initiative be structured under the CARIFORUM-UK Economic Partnership Agreement (EPA), which governs trade and investment relations between Jamaica and the UK. Unlike traditional trade agreements, the EPA also covers areas such as competition policy, intellectual property rights, regional integration, and cultural cooperation.
• Highlighting the importance of services to Jamaica’s economy, Senator Hill noted that while the Government is committed to advancing manufacturing, exports, and the productive capacity of the private sector, services remain the largest contributor to the island’s GDP.
• The Minister emphasised that a special visa arrangement would be particularly advantageous for creative industry professionals - including musicians, models, theatre practitioners, and entertainers - seeking to work in the UK. He underscored Jamaica’s commitment to continued dialogue on the issue, stressing that sustained engagement is critical to the effective implementation of the EPA.
• Senator Hill also signalled that Jamaica is preparing to welcome British nationals who wish to work remotely from the island, with the Government reviewing tax arrangements to support this initiative. “We want Jamaica to be an even more attractive destination for individuals seeking to live and work while contributing to major international companies,” he added.
• Nationals from several Caribbean countries are currently required to obtain a visa to visit the United Kingdom. This includes citizens of Jamaica, Trinidad and Tobago, and Dominica. Previously, these nations were part of the UK’s visa-exempt list, allowing their nationals to travel without a visa for short stays. However, due to a significant increase in asylum applications from these countries, the UK Home Office implemented visa requirements.

(Sources: Caribbean National Weekly)

• The international reserves of the Central Bank of the Dominican Republic (BCRD) fell by US$592.8Mn between August and September 2025, declining from US$13,887.6Mn to US$13,294.8Mn, a 4.3% decrease, according to official data. This drop occurred amid a global environment marked by dollar appreciation and rising external account pressures.
• As a result, reserve coverage fell from 5.1 months to 4.9 months of imports, though this remains within the IMF’s recommended range. Analysts suggest that the decline could be linked to public debt payments, higher imports, foreign exchange interventions or reduced inflows from exports and tourism.
• Despite the fall, reserves remain above the adequate level equivalent of three months of imports, but experts caution that continued decreases could pressure exchange rate stability.
• Meanwhile, remittances continued to show strong performance. Between January and September 2025, the country received US$8,912.8Mn in remittances, up US$914.1Mn (11.4%) from the same period in 2024. In September alone, remittances totaled US$991.8 million, an 11.9% increase year-over-year.
• The United States remained the primary source, contributing 80.5% (US$729 million) of the total. The BCRD highlighted that these funds play a crucial role in boosting consumption, investment, and social support, especially for vulnerable sectors.

(Source: Dominican Today)

• Preliminary estimates show that the Cayman Islands’ economy expanded at an annualised rate of 2.9% in the first quarter of 2025, slightly moderating from the 3.6% growth estimated in Q1 2024. The expansion was broad-based, fueled by sustained demand across core service industries. Notable expansions include electricity and water supply (+4.6%), hotels and restaurants (+4.5%), business activities and administrative services (+4.3%), health and social services (+4.7%), and finance and insurance services (+2.9%). Key infrastructure sectors also posted gains, with wholesale and retail trade up 3.9%, and construction increasing by 2.3%.
• The performance reinforces a positive outlook, with real GDP projected to grow by 2.6% for the year. The central government recorded an overall surplus of CI$244.8Mn in the year’s first three months. This reflected revenue of $554.1Mn and expenditure of $309.3Mn
• The central government’s outstanding debt declined to $396.9Mn as of March 2025 from $445.9Mn as of March 2024. Cayman Islands’ economy continued its growth streak in 2024, with real GDP expanding by 3.1% to $5.21Bn, underpinned by expansion across all major sectors. Financial services, which account for over 30% of GDP, had a solid 2.9% increase, driven by robust demand and the jurisdiction’s growing share in global insurance markets.
• The economic performance for the year was largely driven by the services sector, which accounted for 89.1% of GDP and increased by 2.9%. Actual indicators suggest robust growth in the construction sector (up 3.0%), real estate (+2.9%), other services (up 3.1%), the wholesale and retail trade sector (up 3.7%), and health and social work (up 3.0%).
• Overall, the 2024 economic upturn signals continued confidence in the Cayman Islands’ development, while pointing to a generally synergistic and integrated economy with complementary sectors. The government ended the year with a net borrowing of $6.5Mn. This resulted from the total revenue of $1,127.1Mn falling below its total expenditure of $1,133.6Mn.
• Despite the excess spending for the period, the central government’s outstanding debt decreased to $405.2Mn at the end of 2024, representing a 10.6% decrease from the figure recorded at the end of 2023

(Source: Caribbean National Weekly)