• This week saw a flurry of corporate releases on the Jamaica Stock Exchange (JSE) in keeping with regulatory requirements for timely communication around key corporate developments. Amidst various operational hurdles, JSE listed companies are prioritising stakeholder trust by providing clear, proactive roadmaps for compliance and governance.
• In releases this week, Hurricane Melissa was highlighted as disrupting reporting timelines for Express Catering and Margaritaville (Turks). Both companies have cited the storm’s disruption as the cause for their Q2 financial reporting delays and are now targeting January 30, 2026, for the release of unaudited results. The results for Express Catering and Margaritaville were both officially due on January 14. The development underscores how climate events can materially influence financial disclosures.
• While the tourism sector continues to battle the elements, 138 Student Living is navigating the standard rigors of year-end audits. The company has extended its timeline for filing audited financials to February 6, 2026, reflecting the intensified scrutiny and pressure typical of annual closing cycles.
• Looking toward future resilience, Jamaica Broilers Group (JBG) has taken a more in depth approach to oversight by launching a comprehensive governance audit on February 2, 2026. Partnering with Cube Corporate Support, JBG will evaluate board effectiveness and fortify risk mitigation strategies.
• AMG Packaging & Paper Company Limited disclosed a significant director-related transaction, with 13,002,951 ordinary shares (2.54% of issued capital) traded for $31,207,082.40 on January 15, 2026. The transaction occurred outside a closed period and was executed in accordance with all applicable regulatory disclosure requirements
• Rounding out the week, Sygnus Credit Investment is moving forward with its 8th Annual General Meeting on January 28, 2026. Utilising a hybrid model, the company will be integrating in-person attendance at the AC Hotel Kingston with a robust E-Platform, requiring all shareholders to register with their TRN to ensure seamless digital voting and real-time engagement.

(Sources: JSE, NCBCM Research)

• Jamaica’s insurance industry has emerged as a cornerstone of national stability, with life insurance assets reaching $499.40Bn as at September 30, 2025. This is according to Minister of State in the Ministry of Finance and the Public Service, Hon. Zavia Mayne. This was an increase of approximately 9.3%, or $42.70Bn, over the $456.70Bn recorded on September 30, 2024.
• “The total assets of general insurance companies now amount to approximately 3% of gross domestic product (GDP), while the combined assets of life insurance companies account for a significant 14 per cent of GDP,” Mr. Mayne highlighted.
• He was speaking during the Jamaica Association of Insurance and Financial Advisors (JAIFA) Annual Motivational and Professional Development Seminar at the Jamaica Conference Centre in downtown Kingston, where he represented Portfolio Minister, Hon. Fayval Williams.
• According to the Minister, the strength of Jamaica’s economy and its insurance industry are deeply interconnected, noting that a stable economy creates fertile ground for a booming insurance industry.
• Since the 1970s, insurance companies, brokerages, and agencies have played a pivotal role in helping Jamaicans secure their financial future and safeguard the well‑being of their families. Mr. Mayne pointed out that Jamaica currently has approximately 17 registered insurance companies offering critical financial protection across a wide range of products, including health, dental and vision, life, motor, property, and legal insurance.
• He further underscored that the Government regards insurance as a critical tool for national development, emphasising that the sector is viewed as a strategic partner in Jamaica’s growth agenda.

(Source: JIS)

• With labour productivity growth averaging just 0.8% annually since 2018, reflecting persistent inefficiencies in public administration, low technological diffusion in key industries and skills mismatches in the labour market, the Government of Barbados (Barbados) is seeking to boost productivity under the Barbados Economic Recovery and Transformation plan 2026 (BERT 2026).
• Enhancing productivity and competitiveness is Pillar 1 under BERT 2026. The plan is to raise economy-wide productivity through digital public infrastructure, build new export engines through innovation and reindustrialisation, and strengthen the institutional capacity to deliver complex reforms at speed.
• Without a decisive productivity agenda, including investments in innovation, digital skills, and regulatory streamlining, Barbados risks reverting to a low-growth path despite macroeconomic stabilisation. The BERT 2026 plan noted that raising productivity was “the single most important lever for unlocking higher, sustainable growth in Barbados”
• The new economic reform plan flagged productivity constraints, stating that “the foundation of long-term economic growth is productivity, and in this area, Barbados’ performance remains suboptimal”. As such, the government is planning to establish a small, empowered Productivity Delivery Unit, operating on a GovTech-style delivery model, “to close the implementation capacity gap identified across high-friction business and citizen processes”.
• The new Productivity Delivery Unit will focus on end-to-end process redesign, automation, and key performance indicators reporting across priority journeys, including permits, customs clearance, construction approvals, company registration, and work permits. Its mandate will be to accelerate execution, improve service outcomes, and ensure that productivity reforms translate into measurable results.
• Other key reforms outlined include the full operationalisation of the Barbados Electronic Single Window to reduce trade friction and processing times; implementation of the second phase of Business Barbados modernization and merging business registration, payment, and verification processes into a single digital platform. Expansion of the Trusted Trader Programme and digitisation of customs and logistics infrastructure; strengthening of the Investment Facilitation Centre and the launch of the Barbados Investment Plan, which targets sectors with high growth and export potential, such as logistics, high-end tourism, agro-processing, blue economy industries, and renewable energy services are also key reforms being considered, alongside implementation of a Single Digital ID and Business Identity System, supported by legislative and cybersecurity reforms, etc.
• Finally, productivity is not only a function of technology and regulation but also of a healthy and resilient workforce. Rising levels of illness and absenteeism erode output and increase social insurance costs, with the National Insurance and Social Security (NIS) sickness benefits alone amounting to $21Mn in just six months. BERT 2026 will therefore also integrate health and wellness as a core productivity driver.

(Source: Nation News)

• Venezuela's interim president Delcy Rodriguez this week noted that the country has received US$300Mn from oil sales, the first proceeds from U.S. President Donald Trump's announced 50-million-barrel oil supply deal with Caracas, following the capture of President Nicolas Maduro earlier this month. These first funds will be used through the exchange market in Venezuela, by national banks and the central bank, to consolidate and stabilise the market and protect the incomes and purchasing power of Venezuelan workers.
• Trump said separately on Tuesday, January 20, 2026, his country had taken the 50 million barrels out of Venezuela and was selling some of it in the open market, though shipping records show that volume has not yet been exported.
• Reuters reported last week that four Venezuelan banks had been notified by the country's government that they would split US$300Mn of oil revenues deposited in an account in Qatar, enabling them to sell dollars to Venezuelan companies that need foreign exchange to pay for materials.
• Elsewhere on Tuesday, Rodriguez's brother, lawmaker Jorge Rodriguez, said a reform of the country's main oil law, expected to be debated for the first time this week, will be based on a partnership structure first introduced during President Nicolas Maduro's administration, though he provided no details.
• Interim president Rodriguez told lawmakers last week that the government supported changes to the hydrocarbons law to boost foreign investment. The law has a single contract model of joint ventures controlled by the state company PDVSA (Petróleos de Venezuela), but the country has been introducing so-called 'productive participation contracts' for new partnerships in recent years, whose terms have not been fully disclosed. Those contracts are "a fundamental element to be expressed in the law's reform," Jorge Rodriguez told journalists.

(Source: Reuters)

• As US President Donald Trump kicks off the second year of his second term in office, the geopolitical- and tariff-related volatility that characterised his return to power has resurfaced to shake markets. Investors who have been conditioned to asset prices swiftly rebounding are worried that this time there could be more lasting damage.
• Volatility measures across asset classes rose while stocks, U.S. long-dated ‌Treasuries, and the ‌U.S. dollar sold off on Tuesday, January 20, 2026, a day after Trump threatened to rekindle a trade war with Europe over the U.S. administration's aim to take over Greenland, threatening to blow apart the political and military alliance that has underpinned Western security for decades.
• The threats have revived talk of the Sell America trade that emerged following last year's "Liberation Day" tariff announcement in April 2025, with investors shying away from U.S. assets. For Peter Tuz, president of Chase Investment Counsel in Charlottesville, Virginia, the market action was reminiscent of last year where the market peaked in late January 2025, early February 2025, then, as the tariff news hit the headlines, the market had a pretty good correction.
• While Trump has shown flexibility on tariffs when markets come under severe pressure, investors worry it might take significantly more volatility before the situation over Greenland is resolved. Indeed, the selloff concerned investors because it ‍was spread across multiple assets.

(Source: Reuters)

• The U.S. Federal Reserve is expected to hold its key interest rate through this quarter, and possibly until Chair Jerome Powell's tenure ends in May 2026, according to a majority of economists polled by Reuters, a shift from last month when most expected at least one cut by March 2026.
• Expectations that the U.S. economy will continue growing strongly argue against near-term cuts as inflation remains above the Fed's 2% target. However, most economists still expect at least two reductions later this year.
• Moreover, the Fed is expected to keep rates at 3.50%-3.75% at its January 27-28 meeting, with 58% of the polled economists forecasting no change this quarter compared with at least one reduction in last month's poll. While there was no clear consensus on rates beyond this quarter, a slight majority of respondents expect rate cuts to resume as soon as Powell's tenure as the Fed chair ends in May 2026.
• Additionally, the U.S. economy, which grew at a robust pace of 4.3% in the third quarter, is expected to expand 2.3% this year, up from 2.2% last year, poll medians showed. That was upgraded from 2% predicted last month and above the Fed's estimated non-inflationary rate of 1.8%.
• Growth is forecast to average 2% through 2028 while the unemployment rate is expected to remain steady, averaging 4.5% this year. According to the lead U.S. economist at Oxford Economics, a very strong U.S. GDP growth is expected in 2026, driven by further investments in AI, as well as the tax cuts under the fiscal bill.
• The change in the Personal Consumption Expenditures index, the Fed's preferred inflation measure, is expected to stay above the 2% target for the remainder of this year and average above it in each calendar year through 2028.

(Source: Reuters)

• The U.S. Department of State revised its travel advisory for Jamaica. Previously, the country was under a Level 3^[1] travel advisory due to extensive damage in western parishes from the Category 5 weather system, the second highest warning advisory issued.
• Issued January 17, 2026, the revised advisory follows two months after Hurricane Melissa struck western parishes. Washington previously designated the country Level 3, urging citizens to reconsider travel due to crime, health, and natural disaster risks.
• While a Level 2 advisory still urges vigilance regarding crime, health, and natural disasters, it acknowledges improved safety conditions. Notably, all major airports have resumed commercial flights, though travelers are still encouraged to confirm the availability of local services before departure.
• The updated advisory maintains that although violent crime is a risk throughout the island, tourist-heavy districts typically experience lower incident rates than other areas.
• Of note, Jamaica’s ambitious plan to welcome five million visitors, generate US$5 billion in tourism earnings, and add some 5,000 new hotel rooms in 2025 was thrown off track as a series of disruptive events left the sector short on projected targets, even as its investment momentum remains strong.
• As such, the downgrade to Level 2 will likely support Jamaica's tourism recovery as it signals renewed confidence in Jamaica as a destination and provides much-needed support for an industry that has been working to rebuild after significant disruption.

^[1] A Level 3 travel advisory warns people to reconsider travel "due to serious risks to safety and security.”

• After seeing above-trend gross domestic product (GDP) growth in 2024, Trinidad and Tobago (T&T) saw volatile GDP prints at the start of 2025. Real GDP contracted 2.1% year over year (YoY) in the first quarter of 2025 (Q1 2025), its weakest since Q1 2021, amid declines in both energy (4.8% YoY) and non‑energy (‑0% YoY) sectors against a soft external backdrop.
• However, the economy rebounded in Q2, expanding 2.6% YoY, driven by increases in both natural gas (11.7% YoY) and LNG (27.8% YoY) output, alongside gains in petrochemicals. Mining, agriculture, construction and manufacturing were also points of strength.
• Trade and repairs, the largest component of the national accounts, posted a second consecutive contraction, though the pace of this contraction eased versus Q1, a positive sign for H2 2025. Momentum is seen extending into the second half of 2025 (H2 2025), with Liquefied Natural Gas (LNG) output up 24.6% YoY in Q3, growth in wholesale and retail transactions and a stabilising job market. BMI analysts expect the economy to continue expanding at a steady, albeit muted, pace through end‑2025, currently estimated at 0.9% annually.
• Looking ahead to 2026 and 2027, the real economy is forecasted to grow 1.4% in 2026 and 2.6% in 2027. Growth will be driven by expanded production and export of hydrocarbons, with natural gas and LNG output rising alongside steady household demand supported by low inflation, a recent public‑sector minimum wage increase, and a stabilising labour market. Of note, the unemployment rate fell to 3.8% in Q2 alongside an increase in the labour force, supporting the non‑energy economy.
• BMI’s Oil & Gas team is optimistic on natural gas production and export, projecting production growth of 3.0% in 2026 and 10.0% in 2027. This outlook reflects several new gas projects slated to come online, though updated timelines have pushed some start dates back by a year. As a result, BMI revised 2026 GDP growth down to 1.4% from 2.7% while nudging 2027 up to 2.6% from 2.4%.
• Furthermore, consistent declines in local cement and commercial vehicle sales in 2025 point to continued investment weakness in 2026, alongside a slowdown in business credit growth and notable contractions in the import of capital goods in Q1 (-32.9% YoY) and Q2 (-4.0% YoY), respectively. These trends are expected to continue in 2026, given the view of increased interest rates and continued uncertainty from crime and regional tensions.

(Source: BMI, A Fitch Solutions Company)

• Costa Rica’s tourism sector closed 2025 with only marginal growth, underscoring mounting concerns about the country’s competitiveness in an increasingly crowded regional market. According to the National Chamber of Tourism (CANATUR), international tourist arrivals rose just 1% last year, well below global and regional trends.
• Costa Rica welcomed 2.69Mn visitors by air in 2025, up slightly from 2.6Mn in 2024. While the result spared the industry from an outright contraction, tourism leaders said the performance fell short of expectations for one of Central America’s flagship destinations. The weak expansion contrasted sharply with stronger results elsewhere in the region. Colombia reported growth of about 4%, the Dominican Republic 5%, Mexico 6%, and Guatemala surged ahead with a 10% increase in arrivals, according to CANATUR. The gap, Shirley Calvo, executive director of CANATUR, highlights Costa Rica’s untapped potential and the urgency of corrective measures.
• North America remained Costa Rica’s dominant source market in 2025, accounting for nearly two million visitors. However, arrivals from the United States grew by just 0.5%, signalling stagnation in a market that has traditionally powered the country’s tourism engine. Europe performed worse, posting a 2.1% decline amid economic uncertainty and shifting travel patterns. South America provided the brightest spot, with arrivals jumping 14.5%, helping to cushion losses earlier in the year.
• CANATUR attributed Costa Rica’s under-performance to a combination of structural and external factors. A strong exchange rate has made the destination more expensive relative to its peers, eroding competitiveness. Infrastructure constraints, concerns about public safety, and the rapid expansion of informal accommodations and unregulated tour operators have also strained the formal tourism economy and affected employment.
• Against this backdrop, Costa Rica’s tourism sector has unveiled a sweeping National Tourism Strategy designed to reverse the trend. The plan targets more than 5.2 million annual visitors by 2035, with projected revenues exceeding $11Bn and the creation of nearly 300,000 jobs.
• Martí Jiménez, president of CANATUR, said the strategy reflects a hard reassessment of the country’s value proposition. “We’ve hit the brakes because our price-product relationship has lost competitiveness. The assumption that demand for Costa Rica is price-inelastic no longer holds,” he stressed. The strategy also emphasises the need for a stronger legal and regulatory foundation to attract long-term investment. Larry Hans Arroyo Vargas, an attorney at Bufete de Costa Rica, said a successful tourism plan must extend beyond promotion. “Clear regulations, streamlined permitting, and legal certainty for investors are fundamental,” he said. “That stability is what allows sustainable projects to take root.”
• Regional competition is also eroding Costa Rica’s once-dominant position in eco-tourism. To counter these pressures, the plan proposes upgrading infrastructure at national parks, creating a government-level “tourism cabinet” to coordinate policy, and elevating gastronomy and local beverages as core elements of the visitor experience. It also aims to channel growth toward rural, coastal, and border communities, using tourism as a driver of social and economic inclusion.

(Source: Travel Mode)

• Escalating transatlantic trade tensions are not expected to have a significant impact on the inflation outlook, according to the European Central Bank (ECB) Governing Council member Francois Villeroy de Galhau.
• On January 17, 2026, US President Donald Trump announced that he would implement a 10% tariff on eight European countries that oppose his desire to purchase Greenland, with the tariff rate set to rise to 25% in June 2026. Trump’s tariff threats over Greenland, and European pledges to retaliate, are set to rekindle the debate over risks to the eurozone’s 21-nation economy.
• Tariffs already in place have so far not resulted in major consequences for prices in Europe, according to Villeroy, the Bank of France chief, who also noted that any new levies would likely only have a “muted” influence. Last ‌year's ‌tariffs did not have an impact on eurozone inflation as ⁠they ⁠were ​mostly paid by U.S. consumers, and a similarly muted price ‍outcome is expected.
• Notwithstanding, if there are additional tariffs, all the effects should be assessed. While there could be limited direct inflationary effect, there could also be an appreciation of the euro, which plays in the opposite direction.
• Judging dangers to inflation and growth to be broadly balanced, ECB policymakers have kept interest rates on hold since June 2025, indicating there is little chance of a change anytime soon. The ECB policymakers have been reassured by inflation that is only a touch short of their 2.0% target, while economic expansion has picked up pace, despite the initial trade storm in 2025.
• Notwithstanding, the ECB must remain nimble in an environment of heightened global uncertainty. There are downside risks on inflation that remain at least as significant as upside risks.

(Sources: Bloomberg & Reuters)