• The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has revised Jamaica’s 2026 growth forecast upward to 0.0%, from a projected contraction of 1.2% in April, reflecting a better near-term outlook. However, the 2027 forecast was lowered to 2.4% from 3.1%, signalling a slower recovery than previously anticipated. The projected growth remains slightly below the regional forecast of 2.5%, although it is expected to outperform several Caribbean peers including The Bahamas (1.9%), Belize (2.0%), and Barbados and Trinidad & Tobago (2.2%).
• Jamaica’s economic performance remained weak in the first half of 2026, following the disruption caused by Hurricane Melissa in October 2025. Real GDP contracted by 4.1% year-on-year in Q1 2026 and 2.9% in Q2, although the pace of contraction moderated as economic activity gradually recovered. Mining and Quarrying (-26.1%), Agriculture, Forestry & Fishing (-15.3%) and Accommodation & Food Service Activities (-12.3%) were among the hardest-hit sectors in Q2, reflecting lingering damage to productive capacity and subdued tourism activity.
• Domestically, the recovery is expected to gain momentum as reconstruction spending increases and productive capacity is restored. The deployment of international financing of up to US$6.7Bn since Hurricane Melissa, and the anticipated ramp-up in expenditure through the National Reconstruction and Resilience Authority (NaRRA) should support construction activity, employment and the recovery of key sectors from late 2026 onwards. However, elevated energy prices, drought conditions and the pace of tourism and agricultural recovery remain key risks to the growth outlook.
• Meanwhile, inflation accelerated to 8.6% in September from 7.9% in August, driven primarily by higher food prices amid drought conditions, alongside elevated transport and housing costs. The persistence of inflation above the Bank of Jamaica’s (BOJ’s) 4.0%–6.0% target range reinforces expectations of further monetary tightening, with Fitch BMI analysts anticipating a further 50-basis-point policy rate increase at the November 18 meeting. As such, higher borrowing costs and persistent price pressures are expected to constrain consumption and weigh on the pace of the economic recovery.

(Sources: Radio Jamaica News Online, IMF, STATIN, BOJ, and NCBCM Research

• Guardian Holdings Limited (GHL) has received a letter of non-objection from the Central Bank of Trinidad and Tobago (CBTT) for Phase 1 of its proposed restructuring to establish a Financial Holding Company (FHC). The restructuring commenced on October 10, 2026, and involves the reorganisation of ownership interests within the Guardian Group.
• GHL’s restructuring is intended to comply with regulatory requirements under Trinidad and Tobago’s Insurance Act 2018, which require the separation of financial and non-financial subsidiaries. The proposed structure is expected to strengthen risk management, corporate governance and regulatory oversight. While the Group has not disclosed a specific trigger for the timing, the restructuring coincides with its proposed acquisition of NCB Merchant Bank (Trinidad and Tobago) Limited.
• As part of the process, Guardian Insurance Limited has been renamed Guardian Group Financial Holdings Limited (GGFHL), which will remain a wholly owned subsidiary of GHL. Further to this, GHL will remain the overall holding company of the Guardian Group, which is listed on the Trinidad and Tobago and Jamaica Stock Exchanges, as the restructuring progresses.
• The proposed FHC structure remains subject to outstanding regulatory approvals and permits, including the issuance of the FHC permit. Accordingly, the Group continues to operate under its existing corporate and regulatory structure.
• At the close of trading on October 16, 2026, GHL’s share price on the Jamaica Stock Exchange (JSE) was $374.94, reflecting a 9.5% increase since the start of the year. At its current price, the company trades at a price-to-book (P/B) ratio of 0.55x, below the Main Market Financial Sector Median of 0.85x.

(Sources: Jamaica Stock Exchange & NCBCM Research)

• On October 19, 2026, the Government of The Commonwealth of The Bahamas (the Government) launched an offer to purchase for cash five series of its outstanding US dollar-denominated notes, with a combined outstanding principal amount of US$812.96Mn. The targeted series are the 6.000% notes due 2028, the 9.000% notes due 2029, the 6.950% notes due 2029, the 6.625% notes due 2033 and the 7.125% notes due 2038. The offer is not subject to any minimum participation level but is conditioned on the concurrent (or earlier) closing of a new global notes issue sufficient to fund the purchases.
• The Government will pay a fixed price per US$1,000 principal amount for each series, plus accrued and unpaid interest up to the settlement date. The 9.000% 2029 notes will be purchased at US$1,081.55, the 6.950% 2029 notes at US$1,022.50 and the 6.000% 2028 notes at US$1,007.69, all premiums to par, while the 6.625% 2033 and 7.125% 2038 notes will be purchased at discounts of US$986.25 and US$970.00, respectively.
• All five tender prices exceed current market prices, with the 9.000% 2029, 6.950% 2029 and 6.000% 2028 notes offered premiums of 2.73%, 1.45% and 0.61% to their market prices of US$1,052.84, US$1,007.90 and US$1,001.57, respectively. Although the 6.625% 2033 and 7.125% 2038 notes will be purchased below par, their tender prices remain 0.67% and 3.31% above their market prices of US$979.71 and US$938.94, respectively, with the 2038 notes carrying the largest premium in the offer.
• The Government will set a maximum purchase amount for each series at its sole discretion and may prorate tenders where the aggregate tendered amount exceeds that limit. Brokers will also receive a processing fee of 0.25% on accepted tenders of up to US$250,000 per holder for the 6.950% 2029, 2033 and 2038 notes.
• The offer expires at 5:00 p.m. (New York time) on October 27, 2026, which is also the withdrawal deadline, unless extended or terminated earlier. The Government expects to announce the results on October 28, 2026, with settlement expected on October 29, 2026. In allocating the new notes, the Government intends, though it is not obligated, to give some preference to investors who have tendered, or firmly indicated their intention to tender, their existing notes. BNP Paribas Securities Corp., J.P. Morgan Securities LLC, Scotia Capital (USA) Inc. and Standard Chartered Bank are acting as dealer managers.
• The transaction is a liability management exercise that would allow the Government to refinance part of its external debt through new issuance. The 2028 and 2029 notes account for US$557.43Mn, or 68.6%, of the targeted principal, suggesting the exercise is aimed primarily at easing near-term refinancing pressure and extending the debt maturity profile. Retiring the 9.000% 2029 notes, the highest-coupon series in the offer, could also lower interest costs, depending on the pricing of the new notes.

(Sources: Government of The Bahamas & NCBCM Research)

• Trinidad and Tobago's state-owned Heritage Petroleum (Heritage) is seeking contractors to support the exploration and potential development of deeper oil resources within its existing onshore acreage. In a procurement notice issued on October 12, 2026, Heritage invited companies to prequalify for partnership opportunities covering exploration and development drilling, improved oil recovery and production operations.
• Heritage is seeking contractors capable of providing integrated services, from subsurface reservoir modelling and field development planning to well design, drilling and eventual production. Interested contractors must demonstrate technical expertise, financial capacity, operational experience and compliance with health, safety and environmental standards, with prequalification applications due by November 10, 2026 through the Office of Procurement Regulation's procurement depository.
• The initiative follows the July 2025 announcement by the Minister of Energy and Energy Industries, Roodal Moonilal, that the government was amending Heritage's licences to grant it exploration rights to deeper formations in four onshore blocks, namely the Cruze Horizon, Guapo Oropouche Brighton Horizon, Herrera Horizon and Mayaro-Guayaguayare Horizon blocks. In return, Heritage committed to drilling one exploration well in each block over three years, targeting depths of 5,500 to 13,500 feet.
• The strategy forms part of efforts to reverse declining oil production from Trinidad and Tobago's mature fields. According to figures disclosed by the Minister, Heritage's onshore production fell 5.8% to 9,667 barrels per day (bpd) in 2025 from 10,264 bpd in 2020. Successful exploration of these under-explored deeper formations could identify new resources to offset the decline in output from established reservoirs, with the Minister noting that it could also revive onshore oil development and encourage other operators to pursue deeper targets.
• Partnering with contractors could give Heritage access to specialised technical capability and help share the cost of drilling deeper, higher-risk wells. However, the initiative remains at an early stage, and as such, execution risk is prevalent. Any production uplift would depend on exploration success and the time needed to bring discoveries into development. Deeper wells also typically carry higher drilling costs and technical risk, so the commercial viability of these targets will depend on well results and prevailing oil prices.

(Sources: OilNOW & NCBCM Research)

• The US budget deficit rose by $217Bn to nearly $2Tn in the 2026 fiscal year, fueled in part by tariff refunds and record spending to service the nation's more than $40Tn in debt, marking the largest budget shortfall in five years, Treasury Department figures showed on Friday. Continued increases in spending for social benefits programs like Social Security and Medicare and a $48Bn jump in defence spending also factored into the increase.
• The $1.99Tn deficit for the year ⁠ended September 30, the first full budget year of President Donald Trump's second term, was up from $1.78Tn in fiscal 2025. It was the largest shortfall since fiscal 2021's $2.77Tn budget gap, then fueled by COVID-19 pandemic relief spending, and is the third-largest annual deficit ever.
• Total receipts for fiscal 2026 were a record $5.40Tn, up $169Bn, or 3%, from the $5.24Tn in fiscal 2025. Fiscal 2026 outlays also were a record $7.40Tn, up $386Bn, or 6%, from the $7.01Tn in the prior fiscal year.
• Debt-service outlays totalled a record $1.36Tn, climbing by $144Bn, or 12%, a spending category now eclipsed only by Social Security and ⁠the combined outlays for Medicare and Medicaid. Total US debt breached the $40Tn milestone about two months ago.
• Another driver of the widening shortfall was a $22Bn drop in net tariff receipts following a Supreme Court ruling this year negating a large portion of the tariffs Trump had imposed during his first year in office. That triggered $145Bn ⁠of tariff refunds over this year, resulting in an 11% decline in net tariff income to about $173Bn. Defence spending for the year rose by 6% to $917Bn. A US Treasury official said it was not clear how much ⁠of the increase could be attributed to the war Trump and Israel started against Iran earlier this year.
• The Treasury official said the department calculated an estimated deficit-to-GDP ratio of 6.2% for fiscal 2026 but declined ⁠to say what GDP estimate was used. This figure compares to an actual 5.8% deficit-to-GDP ratio for fiscal 2025. For the 2026 fiscal year's final month of September, the Treasury reported a deficit of $27Bn versus a $198Bn surplus a year earlier.

(Source: Reuters)

• Rising fuel prices across Europe are fueling widespread protests and giving fresh momentum to far-right parties ahead of next year’s elections in France, Italy, Poland and elsewhere.
• Much of the pressure stems from the US-Iran war that began in February, which the European Commission estimates has cost Europe around €100Bn, with gas prices up about 140% and diesel doubling.
• In France, the unrest has become some of the worst in decades, with looting and arson, while Milan has seen clashes with police and roadblocks in southern Italy have led to fuel and supply shortages.
• Demonstrations have also spread to Portugal, Belgium and Albania, and in Spain, anger over housing helped trigger a snap election set for next month.
• Marine Le Pen has made fuel costs central to her campaign for France’s April presidential election, and her proposal to cut value-added tax (VAT) on fuel has helped lift her ratings as Macron’s have fallen.
• In Germany, the Alternative für Deutschland (AfD) now leads national polls, using high energy inflation to attack the government and pushing to restore energy ties with Russia, a strategy experts say works because populists can easily blame costs on policy choices.
• That pro-Russia argument is spreading, with Italy’s Giorgia Meloni now facing a new far-right rival in Roberto Vannacci, whose National Future party wants gas links with Moscow restored.

(Sources: Reuters)

• Local inflation accelerated in September, as the pace of monthly price increase more than doubled. Data from the Statistical Institute of Jamaica (STATIN) showed that consumer prices rose 1.5% in August 2026 compared with 0.6% in August. Consequently, point-to-point (P2P) inflation increased for the fifth consecutive month to 8.6%, from 7.9% in August. This represents the highest outturn since December 2022, marking a fourth consecutive month above the upper limit of the BOJ’s 4%-6% target range.Higher food prices were the main driver of the monthly increase, with the Food and Non-Alcoholic Beverages division rising by 2.9%, nearly double the 1.5% increase recorded in August. This was due mainly to a 10.5% increase in the price of produce. As a result, the division was 12.4% higher on a P2P basis, consistent with the impact of El Niño-induced drought conditions on domestic crop yields.

• The Housing, Water, Electricity, Gas and Other Fuels division also increased by 0.7%, reversing the 0.7% decline recorded in August, owing mainly to higher electricity and household rental rates. This suggests that the relief from lower electricity rates in August has already begun to unwind, although the division's P2P rate eased to 4.5% from 4.8% in August. Additionally, the Education division rose by 4.0%, reflecting the seasonal increase in private primary school tuition fees at the start of the new school term.

• Transport inflation remained elevated at 14.6% P2P, unchanged from August, and continued to record the highest annual rate among the key contributing divisions. The combined effect of higher fuel prices, the July 2026 route-taxi and hackney-carriage fare adjustment and higher toll rates continues to keep transport costs elevated. Importantly, these costs could extend beyond the Transport division by raising distribution and operating costs across the wider economy.

• Food and energy remain the principal upside risks to the inflation outlook. The intensification of El Niño-induced drought conditions could continue to constrain domestic agricultural production, while tensions in the Middle East and the Russia-Ukraine conflict could sustain elevated energy prices and their pass-through to fuel, electricity, transportation and distribution costs. Conversely, an improvement in weather conditions and an easing of geopolitical tensions could support some moderation in inflation over the coming months.

• The September outturn follows the BOJ's decision to raise the policy rate by 50 basis points to 6.0%, its first increase since 2022. The Monetary Policy Committee noted that inflation pressures were likely to persist for longer than originally anticipated and expects headline inflation to continue rising in the near term before returning to the target range by mid-2027.

• With inflation remaining above the BOJ’s upper limit, this strengthens expectation for further tightening (50bps) at the BOJ's next policy decision on November 18. Some economists have also projected that further rate increases could be on the table if price pressures persist, while others warn that global tightening and domestic recovery spending could force additional tightening. That said, Governor Dr. Brian Langrin indicated that the central bank would be content to leave interest rates steady if inflationary pressures do not worsen and business inflation expectations settle down. However, the BOJ also noted that it remains prepared to deploy additional policy tools if needed.

(Sources: STATIN, BOJ & NCBCM Research)

• Stronger revenues lifted quarterly earnings at Wigton Energy Limited (WIG) and Image Plus Consultants Limited (IPCL); however, there was divergence in their half-year performances. WIG’s net profit increased 51.8% year-over-year (YoY) to J$144.63Mn for the quarter ended September 30, 2026, supported by higher electricity sales and lower finance costs. Meanwhile, IPCL’s profit climbed 185.7% to J$26.75Mn for the quarter ended August 31, 2026, reflecting growth in its existing operations and the first full quarter of contributions from Island Radiology Limited (IR).
• WIG's revenues growth strengthened its core profitability. Quarterly sales increased 42.6% to J$726.55Mn, supported by higher electricity production, which outpaced a 21.0% increase in cost of sales. Consequently, gross profit rose 61.6% to J$438.66Mn. However, other income (-65.1%) and higher general administrative expenses (+28.8%) owing to repairs and maintenance following consecutive hurricanes in 2024 and 2025, continued investment in digitisation and inflationary pressures limited operating profit growth to 8.1% bringing it to J$227.97Mn. Debt repayments provided further relief, with finance expenses falling 49.7% to J$38.01Mn, supplemented by a return to profitability from its associate.
• The quarterly rebound narrowed WIG’s half-year earnings shortfall. Net profit for the six months ended September 30 (H1) declined 11.5% to J$313.62Mn, following a 34.8% contraction in the first quarter. Electricity production increased 16.6% to 94.72 million kWh in H1, supported by favourable winds and plant maintenance, helping sales rise 13.6% to J$1.51Bn. Nevertheless, lower insurance proceeds and foreign exchange gains reduced other income, while hurricane-related repairs and materials pushed cost of sales up 21.1%, weighing on the overall result.
• For IPCL, its expanded operations translated into higher scan volumes and stronger operating earnings. Quarterly revenues increased 70.9% to J$442.13Mn as scan volumes rose 57.4% to 20,635. Direct costs grew faster than revenues, narrowing the gross profit margin to 63.7% from 68.1%. However, administrative expenses - including J$15.60Mn in one-time acquisition costs, grew more slowly than revenues. This helped operating profit more than double to J$42.69Mn, absorbing higher depreciation and a 58.7% increase in finance costs associated primarily with acquisition financing. Overall, the half-year net profit rose 157.4% to J$59.45Mn on revenue growth of 50.9% to J$794.06Mn. Net margin widened to 7.5% from 4.4%, indicating that the expanded business converted a greater share of revenue into earnings.
• Both companies have opportunities to extend earnings growth, with execution central to the outlook. WIG is advancing its 70.53 MW utility-scale solar project, pursuing regional opportunities and nearing the contracting stage for a major commercial and industrial solar project. These initiatives could diversify revenues beyond its single asset operation, although funding, delivery timelines and weather exposure remain key considerations. Meanwhile, IPCL’s expanded geographic reach following the Island Radiology acquisition, alongside its planned relocation to 33 Lady Musgrave Road before FY2027 ends, provides scope for further growth. Converting that scale into sustained profit growth will depend on successful integration, cost control and managing its higher debt burden.
• At October 15, WIG closed at J$1.04, down 19.4% year-to-date, but traded at 63.80x earnings versus the Main Market Energy, Materials and Industrials sector median of 21.43x. Its quarterly recovery will therefore need to translate into more sustained earnings improvement to support that premium. IPCL, on the other hand, gained 76.0% to J$1.76 and traded at 25.14x earnings, slightly below the Junior Market Health sector median of 25.26x. Continued earnings growth and successful integration will be important to sustaining investor confidence following the rally.

(Sources: JSE & NCBCM Research)

• The Cayman Islands Government has issued a Request for Proposals (RFP) for a CI$236Mn loan facility to support the capital investment programme approved by Parliament for the 2026–2027 Budget period.
• The proposed financing is not additional to the borrowing previously announced and approved as part of the Budget. The Appropriation (Financial Years 2026 and 2027) Act, 2025 authorised Government to borrow up to CI$124Mn in 2026 and CI$112Mn in 2027 - a total of CI$236Mn over the two years.
• Minister for Finance and Economic Development and Chairman of Finance Committee, Hon. Rolston Anglin, confirmed that the procurement was underway during the Finance Committee proceedings in Parliament on Thursday, 8 October.  The RFP seeks proposals for a 15-year, unsecured, amortising loan facility. It provides for the financing to be made available in two tranches - CI$124Mn upon signing of the agreement, or by 31 December 2026 at the latest, and CI$112Mn within three months of executing the agreement or upon one month’s written notice of drawdown.
• The proposed loan facility will support the Government’s overall capital programme, it is not earmarked in the RFP for any single project. In presenting the 2026–2027 Budget in November 2025, Minister Anglin emphasised that the proposed borrowing would be used to finance the capital programme and would not be used to fund Core Government’s operating expenditure, which is funded by operating revenue.
• The original Budget provided for total capital investment of approximately CI$139.5Mn in 2026 and CI$125.3Mn in 2027 to be funded largely, but not entirely, through borrowing. The Cayman Islands Government’s CI$236Mn borrowing facility funds its overall capital programme, covering schools, roads, infrastructure, land acquisition, affordable housing and investments in public entities.
• Minister Anglin previously advised Parliament that Government would continue to monitor its cash reserves and financing requirements and would only approach the market when borrowing became necessary. The timing of the RFP reflects that approach, allowing Government to align the financing with the implementation of its capital programme while managing the interest costs associated with new debt. That said, the CI$134.3Mn in supplementary appropriations approved in June 2026 did not raise this borrowing limit, and public debt stood at CI$471.8Mn as at August 31, 2026.

(Source: The Cayman Islands Government)

• The Bahamas Government recorded a preliminary fiscal surplus of $39.3Mn for FY2025/26, according to the Ministry of Finance’s June report. However, the result fell short of the $75.5Mn target, reaching just 52.1% of the forecast.
• The surplus depended heavily on an exceptional June. The government still ran a deficit of about $91.4Mn through May, but a $130.7Mn surplus that month moved the full-year position into the black.
• That June boost came as revenue jumped by $467Mn to $777.1Mn, nearly one-fifth of the year’s total, driven by dividends from public entities, collection of value-added tax (VAT) arrears and reciprocal offsets with statutory bodies. Its reliance on these one-off factors raises questions about whether the surplus can be repeated.
• For the full year, total revenue of $3.964Bn exceeded the budget by $67.7Mn, though this came from non-tax income rather than taxes, which fell $19.5Mn short. VAT remained the strongest source at $1.65Bn, while the new Domestic Minimum Top-Up Tax raised only 52.7% of its target.
• On the spending side, expenditure of $3.925Bn overshot the budget by $103.9Mn, led by goods and services (15.3% above allocation) and capital spending (11.2% above budget), while public debt interest of $674.7Mn absorbed about 17% of revenue. Meanwhile, short-term loans involving public entities rose 22.1% to $728.7Mn, and all figures remain provisional until audited by the Auditor General.
• Overall, while the surplus marks an improvement in the Bahamas’ fiscal position, its narrow margin and dependence on one-off June inflows suggest that sustaining fiscal surpluses will require stronger tax collection and tighter control of spending

(Source: The Nassau Guardian)