• Recent company disclosures highlighted both capital allocation and governance considerations, with Caribbean Cement Company Limited (CCC) moving to reward shareholders through another dividend recommendation, while Dolphin Cove Limited (DCOVE) announced an upcoming change in its external audit arrangements amid a challenging operating backdrop.
• CCC advised that its Board of Directors has recommended a final dividend of J$2.0854 per share following its meeting on June 10, 2026. The proposal will be presented to shareholders for approval at the Company's Annual General Meeting on August 13, 2026. Shareholders on record as at August 28, 2026, will be eligible to receive the dividend, which is expected to be paid on October 15, 2026.
• The recommendation continues CCC's renewed commitment to shareholder distributions following a 17-year hiatus that ended in 2022. Since reinstating dividends, the Company has declared one annual payout each year, with distributions trending higher over time from J$1.5032 per share in 2022 to J$2.0979 in 2025. While the proposed 2026 dividend is marginally below last year's level, it remains broadly consistent with CCC's recent capital return profile.
• Separately, DCOVE advised that it has mutually agreed with KPMG that the firm will not seek reappointment as auditors at the next Annual General Meeting (AGM) on July 23, 2026. The Directors will proceed with a process of selecting new auditors to hold office until the subsequent AGM.
• The announcement follows a difficult period for DCOVE, characterised by delays in the release of its December 2025 audited financial statements, board-level changes, and operational disruptions stemming from Hurricane Melissa. These challenges weighed heavily on financial performance, with the Company reporting a consolidated net loss of US$2.34Mn for FY2025, compared to a net profit of US$1.83Mn in 2024, marking its first full-year loss since 2020.
• Market performance across both stocks has been mixed year to date. CCC’s share price (3.1%) advanced, while DCOVE has declined 14.2%. At this price, CCC traded at a P/E of 12.80x, well below the 58.44x Main Market Energy, Materials, and Industrials (EMI) sector average. DCOVE, which recorded a loss in FY2025, trades at a 0.93x price to book value, below the 1.75x average for its Junior Market peer group.

(Sources: JSE & NCBCM Research)

• Fitch BMI revised Barbados’ GDP growth forecast for 2026 down to 1.9% from 2.1%, compared with an estimated 2.7% in 2025. The downward revision reflects rising external headwinds linked to a longer-lasting US-Iran conflict, higher inflation and pressure on the key tourism sector.
• Inflation is expected to rise from an average of 0.9% in 2025 to 2.8% in 2026, driven largely by imported price pressures from higher international oil prices and shipping costs.
• The overall budget deficit is forecast to widen modestly from an estimated 0.4% of GDP in FY2025/26 to 1.2% in FY2026/27, as the government increases spending to support growth and cushion households and businesses from higher fuel prices.
• Despite the wider deficit, ongoing fiscal prudence is expected to continue, anchored by a healthy primary surplus. This should support a gradual decline in gross public debt from around 95% of GDP at end-FY2025/26 toward the government’s long-term target of 60%. Additionally, the central bank is expected to maintain the hard exchange rate anchor at BBD2.00/USD, supported by international reserves of around US$1.5Bn.
• Further escalation in the US-Iran conflict could create a more severe oil price shock, pushing inflation higher and placing additional pressure on growth. Rising energy and shipping costs could also intensify cost-of-living pressures and public discontent, while climate-related shocks remain a major risk given Barbados’ reliance on tourism.
• Barbados’ outlook remains relatively stable, but higher oil and shipping costs could pressure tourism, inflation and public spending at the same time. As such, the country’s strong fiscal framework, primary surplus and exchange-rate anchor will be an important buffers if global energy volatility persists.

(Source: BMI, A Fitch Solutions Company)

• Mexico’s annual inflation rate decelerated for a second consecutive month in May 2026, returning to the higher end of the central bank’s target range. However, concerns remain around future inflation trends and core price pressures.
• Consumer prices rose 3.94% year-over-year in May 2026, easing from 4.45% in April 2026 and coming in below economists’ forecast of 4.03% in a Reuters poll. This placed inflation back within Banxico’s target range of 3%, plus or minus one percentage point.
• Consumer prices fell 0.21% in May 2026, marking the first monthly decline in two years. The decline was larger than economists expected, as the Reuters poll had forecast a smaller 0.12% month-over-month fall.
• However, underlying price pressures remain a concern. The closely watched core index, which strips out some volatile food and energy prices, rose 0.22% month-over-month, while annual core inflation slowed only slightly to 4.19% from 4.26% in April.
• According to Pantheon Macroeconomics’ Chief Latin America Economist, Andres Abadia, while inflation is moving in the right direction, progress remains uneven, with core services inflation still running above levels consistent with Banxico’s target.
• Banxico recently ended its more than two-year monetary easing cycle, lowering its benchmark interest rate by 25 basis points to 6.50% in a divided decision, amid concerns about inflation risks linked to the U.S. and Israel war on Iran and a sluggish domestic economy.
• While Mexico’s softer headline inflation gives the bank some comfort that price pressures are easing, sticky core and services inflation suggest the central bank is unlikely to rush into further rate cuts. According to Capital Economics, the policy rate is likely to remain at 6.50% in the foreseeable future, despite the larger-than-expected fall in headline inflation.

(Source: Reuters)

• U.S. consumer inflation increased at its fastest pace in three years in May, boosted by surging prices for energy products amid the Middle East conflict, and giving more ammunition for the Federal Reserve to keep interest rates unchanged into 2027. The third straight month of ​strong increases in the Consumer Price Index reported by the Labour Department on Wednesday underscored the mounting pressure on households, which are increasingly tapping their savings to fund spending.
• Inflation eroded wages for a second ‌consecutive month in May, which could weigh on overall economic growth. The soaring cost of living is a political liability for President Donald Trump and his Republican Party, seeking to retain control of Congress in the midterm elections in November. Trump won the 2024 presidential election in large part because of his promise to lower inflation, but has seen his approval rating tumble as frustration mounts over his handling of the economy.
• The U.S. central bank tracks the Personal Consumption Expenditure Price Index for its 2% inflation ⁠ All inflation measures are running well above the Fed's target. Real average hourly earnings dropped 0.7% in the 12 months through May after falling 0.3% in April.
• The Consumer Price Index ​(CPI) increased 4.2% in the 12 months through May, the largest gain since April 2023, the Labour Department's Bureau of Labour Statistics said. The CPI advanced 3.8% year-on-year in April and rose 3.3% in March. Prices increased 0.5% over ​the month after climbing 0.6% in April. The rise in inflation was in line with economists' expectations.
• A 3.9% jump in the price of energy goods accounted for more than 60% of the rise in the monthly CPI. Energy prices rose ​3.8% in April. They vaulted 23.5% in the 12 months through May. Gasoline prices accelerated 7.0% over the month and were up 40.5% from a year ago. Prices at the pump have retreated in recent weeks as oil prices eased, raising cautious optimism among economists that May could be the peak in CPI inflation.

(Source: Reuters)

• The ​Bank of Canada (BoC) on left its key interest rate unchanged as expected and said it was ‌seeing limited evidence that higher energy prices were fueling broad-based inflation. But Governor Tiff Macklem reiterated that the bank would not hesitate to raise rates if need be to keep inflation in check.
• This decision marks the fifth consecutive meeting at which the BoC has left its key policy rate at the 2.25% ​level, as an array of factors have complicated the economic outlook. The Iran war, which has sent gasoline prices soaring, ​is squeezing household budgets, though Canada, as a net exporter of crude oil, is taking in more ⁠
• Data last month showed Canada's economy posted a surprise contraction in the first quarter versus the year before, making it two straight quarters of annualised decline, which some economists call a technical recession. Macklem, though, said that the economy had basically been flat over the ​last year.
• Canada's overall inflation rate in April ​rose to 2.8%, and Macklem said ​the bank expected it ⁠to hover around 3% before gradually easing toward the 2% target.
• Macklem noted that the Middle East war posed a dilemma for monetary policy makers. Raising rates to dampen inflation could further slow the economy, while ​easing rates to support growth increases the risk of persistently higher inflation.
• Economists see the upcoming review of the North American free trade deal - the ⁠United States-Mexico-Canada ​Agreement - as the biggest uncertainty hanging over the economy. Macklem reiterated that if the U.S. ​imposed significant new trade restrictions, the bank might have to cut rates. If, on the other hand, higher energy prices started leading to generalised inflation, "there may ​be a need for consecutive rises in the policy rate."

(Source: Reuters)

• Shareholder returns remained in focus this week, with dividend declarations, ongoing share buybacks, and corporate governance developments dominating releases among select JSE listed companies.
• Leading the corporate actions were dividend announcements from Kingston Wharves Limited (KW) and Eppley Limited (EPLY). On June 2, 2026, KW’s Board approved a dividend of J$0.26 per ordinary share, payable on August 14, 2026, to shareholders on record as of Thursday, July 16, 2026, which is also the ex-dividend date. Eppley’s followed with the declaration of an interim dividend of J$0.102 per share payable on June 26, 2026, to shareholders on record as of June 12, 2026, which is also the ex-dividend date. Eppley’s dividend announcement came against the backdrop of a strong first quarter, with earnings up 20.7% to J$298.4Mn, driven by broad-based growth across its real estate, asset management, leasing, and investment businesses and lower financing costs.
• Meanwhile, Scotia Group Jamaica (SGJ) signaled the potential for additional shareholder distributions advising that a dividend payment will be considered at its upcoming Board meeting on June 11, 2026.
• Beyond dividends, JMMB Group Limited (JMMBGL) continued returning capital to shareholders through its ongoing share repurchase programme. The company announced that on June 1, 2026, it purchased 60,901 ordinary shares on the open market at an average price of J$15.99, representing a significant discount to its book value per share of J$29.58 for a total of J$974,044.04. The shares were acquired through its broker, JMMB Securities Limited. The buyback forms part of a broader J$300.0 million programme funded from internal cash resources and aimed at enhancing long-term shareholder value.
• On the governance front, Medical Disposables & Supplies Limited (MDS) and Productive Business Solutions Limited (PBS) announced board changes. MDS reported the resignation of Independent Director Mrs. Sheree Martin, effective May 6, 2026. The Company indicated that the departure reflects the increased demands of a senior leadership role she recently assumed and noted that the Board will consider appropriate steps to fill the vacancy in due course. PBS also reported that Director Blondell Walker has resigned effective June 5, 2026, and subsequently appointed Eduardo Rodriguez, Group Chief Financial Officer, as an additional Director effective June 8, 2026. This appointment strengthens the Board's financial and executive leadership representation.
• Against this backdrop, investor sentiment toward these companies has remained mixed. Year to date, KW’s (+8.6%) and SGJ’s (+0.1%) share prices increased, while Eppley (2.1%), MDS (13.9%), and JMMBGL (20.8%) have declined. In terms of valuation metrics, JMMBGL (0.51x) and SGJ (0.98x) continue to trade below the Main Market Financial Sector average price-to-book (P/B) ratio of 1.09x. In contrast, EPPLEY overshot the sector’s average with a P/B of 2.44x.
• Meanwhile, MDS remains deeply discounted, trading at just 0.32x book value compared to the Junior Market Health Sector average of 1.23x, as ongoing losses continue to weigh on investor sentiment

(Sources: JSE & NCBCM Research)

• The Senate, on June 5, approved the National Housing Trust (Amendment) (Special Provisions) Act, 2026, authorising an annual J$11.4Bn withdrawal from the NHT to provide budgetary support to the Government's budget from fiscal year 2026/27 through 2030/31. The measure was passed without amendment and includes a sunset provision^[1] at the end of the period.
• The Government indicated that the continuation of the transfers reflects the increased fiscal demands arising from Hurricane Melissa, which have placed additional pressure on public finances and reconstruction spending requirements. The measure had previously been signaled as part of the Government's revised revenue framework announced in February.
• In discussing the NHT's capacity to support the transfers, the Government noted that housing supply challenges extend beyond financing and include factors such as the availability of serviced land, infrastructure constraints, construction costs, labour shortages, and planning and approval processes.
• From a fiscal perspective, the measure secures a recurring J$11.4Bn annual non-tax revenue source over the medium term. This helps to support budgeted expenditures amid elevated reconstruction and recovery costs. The transfers should provide additional fiscal flexibility while supporting Jamaica's broader fiscal consolidation and debt reduction objectives.
• The arrangement also underscores the Government's continued reliance on NHT resources as a source of budgetary support until the measure expires in fiscal year 2030/31. This diverts funding away from the agency’s mandate to augment and improve the overall supply of affordable housing across the country.

(Sources: JIS & NCBCM Research)

^[1] A sunset provision (or sunset clause) is a specific measure in a law, contract, or regulation that dictates an automatic expiration date for the agreement. Once that date is reached, the law or clause becomes void unless lawmakers or involved parties actively vote or agree to renew it.

• S&P affirmed Bank of N.T. Butterfield's (BNTB) BBB+ and the A-2 short-term issuer credit ratings and simultaneously revised the outlook to Negative from Stable following the bank's planned acquisition of CIBC Caribbean 91.7% interest in CIBC Caribbean Bank Ltd. for $1.794Bn.
• The acquisition will be financed by about $1.1Bn of cash and $703Mn in Butterfield shares, in a deal that's expected to close in the first half of 2027. BNTB will look to acquire the remaining 8.3% stake from minority shareholders. The acquisition is projected to nearly double BNTB's asset base, expand its geographic footprint across the Caribbean, diversify revenue streams, and strengthen its deposit franchise.
• Despite the strategic benefits, the transaction is expected to significantly weaken capital levels. BNTB's Common Equity Tier 1 (CET1) ratio is projected to decline to around 12% from 27.6% at year-end 2025. The CET1 ratio is a key metric used by regulators and investors to measure a bank's financial strength and its ability to withstand economic downturns.
• Meanwhile, its risk-adjusted capital (RAC) ratio will fall significantly at the transaction's closing. The bank's RAC ratio was 13.6% at the end of 2025, and it is anticipated to drop to the 7%-10% range which is considered adequate, from the current 10%-15% range that was considered strong.
• The Negative Outlook also reflects integration and execution risks, as BNTB will need to successfully merge a substantially larger operation while rebuilding capital and achieving expected cost synergies.
• Offsetting these concerns are BNTB's strong profitability, proven ability to generate capital internally, and the enhanced scale and diversification that the acquisition is expected to deliver over the longer term.
• The outlook could return to Stable if the bank successfully integrates CIBC Caribbean and demonstrates meaningful capital rebuilding following the transaction's completion.

(Source: S&P Global Ratings)

• Guyana’s oil production has climbed from a standing start in December 2019 to over 900,000 barrels per day (bpd) in just over six years, marking one of the fastest offshore production ramp-ups in history. With additional Stabroek Block projects still to come, output capacity is expected to rise to approximately 1.3Mn bpd by the end of 2027.
• The analysis of daily reported production data from the Ministry of Natural Resources shows output rising in large, project-led steps rather than gradually, moving from startup volumes in 2020 to roughly 100,000 bpd by 2021, then toward the 400,000 bpd range in 2022, and now to just over 900,000 bpd.
• The Stabroek Block, operated by ExxonMobil Guyana with partners Hess and China National Offshore Oil Corporation (CNOOC), has been the engine of the ramp-up, with each new Floating Production, Storage and Offloading vessel (FPSO) adding another large block of capacity. Whiptail is expected to add about 250,000 bpd by the end of 2027 and bring Guyana’s total production capacity to about 1.3 Mn bpd.
• The pace is globally significant, as Guyana has gone from no commercial oil production to output levels comparable with, or higher than, several long-established producing countries, making it one of the key non-Organisation of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) growth stories alongside the United States, Canada, and Brazil.
• The rapid ramp-up is strengthening export earnings, government revenue, and Guyana’s strategic importance in global energy supply, but it also increases pressure on public institutions, infrastructure, local content capacity, environmental oversight, and long-term fiscal management.
• Guyana’s rapid production growth is part of a wider shift in global crude flows toward South America, which has posted the largest year-to-date increase in oil exports of any producing region in 2026. While Brazil remains the region’s largest exporter, Guyana has been the fastest-growing contributor, with January–May export loadings increasing from around 17 Mn barrels in 2021 to around 137 Mn barrels in 2026, reinforcing its rising importance as a non-Middle East source of global oil supply.

(Source: OilNOW)

• LATAM Airlines CEO Roberto Alvo warned that the airline industry may need to cut capacity further if elevated fuel prices persist into 2027, noting that capacity adjustments may be the only way to “balance the equation” in the industry.
• According to Alvo, airlines with strong balance sheets and more premium travellers are better placed to absorb the fuel shock, while carriers with weaker finances or greater exposure to price-sensitive customers, such as ultra-low-cost carriers, would face more challenges.
• The pressure is already visible in airline financing conditions, as higher fuel bills are making borrowing costlier and affecting publicly traded bond prices. Notably, LATAM’s fuel hedges are not fully protecting the airline because current prices are above the range covered by those contracts. More broadly, airline hedging strategies have fallen short as jet fuel prices surged, meaning hedging can smooth margins but cannot fully shield carriers from sudden fuel-price spikes.
• Further, aircraft and engine supply-chain problems are expected to remain a challenge for another two or three years, forcing airlines to keep older planes in service for longer and adding further pressure to operating costs.
• According to the International Air Transport Association (IATA), Middle East disruptions and elevated fuel prices have halved the airline industry’s 2026 profitability outlook, as higher fuel costs and regional disruption weigh on demand, operating costs and flight activity. Global airline profits are now expected to fall to US$23Bn in 2026, down from US$45Bn in 2025, while industry margins are projected to narrow from 4.2% to 2.0%.

(Sources: Reuters & the International Air Transport Association)