• On November 3, 2035, Moody's Ratings (Moody's) completed a periodic review of the ratings of Jamaica (B1/Positive) and other ratings that are associated with the sovereign. The review was conducted through a rating committee, in which Moody’s reassessed the appropriateness of Jamaica’s ratings, considering recent developments. The review, however, does not equate to a rating action.
• According to Moody’s, Jamaica’s credit profile is supported by the government's commitment to economic and fiscal reforms over the past decade. These reforms have contributed to greater macroeconomic stability and placed government debt on a firm downward trend. The sovereign has maintained large primary surpluses despite significant economic shocks, reflecting significant improvements in institutional capacity and policy effectiveness.
• On October 28, 2025, Jamaica was hit by Category 5 storm, Hurricane Melissa. The hurricane is the most powerful on record to hit Jamaica and has caused extensive disruption across the island. The immediate impact of Hurricane Melissa includes severe damage to infrastructure, widespread power outages, and significant disruptions in tourism, agriculture, and other key sectors. The full extent of the physical damage and fiscal implications remains uncertain, but as in past storms, Moody’s expects real GDP to contract and the debt burden to increase.
• The Jamaican government's (GOJ) policy response will be critical in mitigating the hurricane's impact on credit fundamentals. Moody’s expects the GOJ to leverage external support mechanisms, including quickly disbursing external funding. While Hurricane Melissa presents a severe but likely temporary blow to Jamaica's economy, the government's proactive disaster planning and access to external financial support can help mitigate the long-term impact on its credit profile, as well as its ongoing commitment to medium-term fiscal responsibility and debt reduction.
• Further, Jamaica's "ba3" economic strength reflects the economy's relatively small size and low income levels, very weak growth as well as limited economic diversification. Jamaica's "baa3" institutions and governance strength balance the government's track record of debt restructuring against its favourable governance indicators and improving policy framework and policy credibility.
• Finally, the positive outlook reflects Moody’s assessment that a continuation of the favourable fiscal trajectory will increase Jamaica's credit resilience. Given the improvement in the country's institutions and governance strength, a further decline in Jamaica's debt and interest burdens, though unlikely in the near term given the passage of Melissa, would support higher ratings. A less contractionary fiscal stance would also increase growth prospects for the economy.

(Source: Moody’s Investor Services)

• Local Cement manufacturer, Carib Cement Company Limited (CCC), generated $2.29Bn in after-tax earnings for the three months ended September 30, 2025 (Q3 2025), 264.3% higher than in Q3 2024. The robust performance was supported by a mix of strong revenue growth and lower expenses in the absence of routine maintenance this quarter.
• Q3 2025 revenues rebounded 30.1% year-over-year (YoY) to $8.07Bn, as better weather conditions likely supported increased construction activity, which translated to increased demand and sales of cement/clinker. This contrasts with lower revenue in Q3 2024, when heavy rainfall from Hurricane Beryl and other weather systems delayed the resumption of production after its annual maintenance shutdown. Notably, operational upgrades, particularly from its kiln expansion, led the company to historic production highs, allowing it to meet the high demand. In July, clinker volume reached a record 93,450 metric tonnes, and cement volume hit a new milestone of 109,682 metric tonnes¹.
• Concurrently, Cost of goods sold (COGS) fell (9.6%), largely driven by enhanced production efficiency following the completion of CCC’s expansion project. Consequently, gross profit improved by 130.6% to J$4.05Bn and gross margin rose from 28.3% to 50.2%.
• Operating costs were relatively flat as a 19.5% dip in administrative and selling expenses was offset by a 22.6% increase in distribution and logistics expenses. Net other expenses contracted by 73.6% to $0.28Bn supported by insurance recoveries and no inventory write-offs this quarter.
• On the balance of higher gross profits and lower operating and other expenses, operating profit increased by 412.7% to J$3.20Bn and supported the expansion in net profits.
• Despite the Q3 rebound, CCC’s 9M earnings still ended the year 1.8% below 9M 2024. This reflects a timing effect from the annual maintenance shutdown, which took place in Q3 last year but occurred in Q2 this year. As a result, Q3 2025 benefited from uninterrupted production, stronger sales and lower COGS. The relatively similar year-to-date performance therefore provides a more balanced view of CCC’s underlying profitability, once the maintenance impact is evened out across periods.
• Looking ahead, CCC continues to make solid progress in expanding its plant capacity and post-Hurricane Melissa reconstruction efforts are expected to bolster demand in the coming quarters. Notably, the commissioning of its $6.7Bn plant expansion project in June has increased production capacity (total volume increase of over 9,600 metric tonnes), enabling it to reliably meet domestic demand and resume exports to regional markets. Furthermore, rebuilding efforts in the wake of the destruction wrought by Hurricane Melissa on houses, commercial properties and infrastructure in western Jamaica will likely result in a rise in demand for cement products.
• Year-to-date, CCC’s stock price is up 7.8%, closing at J$91.10 on Tuesday, November 4th and a P/E of 13.20x. This is below the Main Market Energy, Industrial and Materials Sector average P/E of 15.94x.

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[1] The previous records were 89,600 in July 2022 and 103,869 in March 2021, respectively.

(Source: CCC Financial Release, NCBCM Research)

• The Bahamas saw an increase in stopover visitors from Canada, amid a softening in stopover visitors from the US this year, when compared to last year, Governor of The Central Bank of The Bahamas (CBOB) John Rolle highlighted. He further highlighted that the tourism sector saw overall earnings increase at a slower rate in the first nine months of this year when compared to 2024, partly due to the decline in US stopover visitors.
• The Ministry of Tourism has put an increased focus on Canadian travel to The Bahamas, as Canadians chose not to visit the US in the wake of comments by US President Donald Trump about Canada, and a trade tussle between the two countries. Rolle said hotel room revenues also decreased over the first nine months of the year. He explained, though, that short-term vacation rentals experienced “healthy earnings” during that same period.
• It was further noted that the Central Bank is tracking an uptick for the last quarter of the year, when compared to the same period in 2024. He added that tourism continues to drive growth in the country, along with foreign investments that have targeted cruise attractions and residential and resort developments.
• Rolle said the recent passage of Hurricane Melissa through the southern Bahamas is not likely to cause a noticeable shift in the country’s economic performance as the year rounds out. “With the passing of the storm impacting the southern Bahamas, we do anticipate that there will be some impact on the fiscal and on economic activity in those areas, but we don’t think we’re at the level where it will alter significantly the economic performance in the last quarter of the year,” he said.

(Source: The Nassau Guardian)

• Proposals for a fourth version of the Barbados Economic Recovery and Transformation (BERT) austerity programme are set to go before ministers, with Governor of the Central Bank of Barbados Dr Kevin Greenidge expressing confidence that bold investment can drive growth well beyond recent projections.
• In a review of the country’s economic performance for the third quarter of this year, Dr Greenidge disclosed that the bank’s economic team had discussed a draft of the BERT 2025 programme with the Social Partnership. But in an update on the development, well-placed sources who spoke on condition of anonymity said on Friday, “(The economic team) has presented a draft of BERT 2025 to the Social Partnership and received feedback. This economic team is currently incorporating those comments, and the next stage is for it to go to Cabinet.”
• After stabilising the economy and the government’s fiscal position, the new BERT will focus on transforming the economy, said the governor. “That, as with BERT 2022, targets a five per cent rate [of growth]. That five per cent is predicted on investment. A few things go into growth. It is not complicated. We keep it simple. Labour and capital; and you can divide labour into the number of bodies and the efficiency of that, which equals productivity.”.
• BERT, the International Monetary Fund-backed homegrown strategy for economic stability, growth, and resilience, began in 2018 with Dr Greenidge then as an IMF advisor embedded in the government. Initially launched to address a debt crisis through fiscal consolidation and debt restructuring, it has since evolved into BERT 2022 and BERT 3.0. The third version, with Dr Greenidge helming the Central Bank since March 2023, focused on transformation through economic diversification, digital innovation, and climate resilience.
• The idea of BERT 2025 arose while Dr Greenidge was defending the bank’s medium-term projected growth rate of three per cent, in light of scepticism expressed by some rating agencies regarding its practicality.
• The Central Bank projects that the economy will gradually return to its potential growth in the coming quarters as global conditions stabilise and investment increases. Dr Greenidge also noted that while people are accustomed to hearing growth rates of two per cent and two-and-a-half per cent, a look at the bigger picture would show much higher growth rate forecasts, such as ten per cent for the Philippines and five to six per cent for some others.

(Source: Dominican Today)

• The Supreme Court hears arguments Wednesday over the legality of President Donald Trump’s global tariffs program in a blockbuster case with extraordinary significance for American consumers and businesses, the nation’s financial health, global diplomacy, and future presidential power.
• If the tariffs are invalidated, the U.S. government could owe tens of billions of dollars of refunds to businesses that have paid them. Such an outcome could also eliminate a primary bargaining chip that Trump has used in negotiations with other countries.
• On the other hand, a decision upholding the tariffs would cement an expansive new exercise of presidential power and preserve a cornerstone of Trump’s agenda. With that being said, economists estimate that this could boost some U.S. manufacturing in the long run but cost American families an average of more than $1700 this year alone in higher prices.
• The Constitution gives Congress the exclusive authority to levy taxes on citizens and duties on imports, with a few limited exceptions adopted over the years to give the president some discretion during times of national crisis. With that being said, the key question in the Trump case is whether the 1977 International Emergency Economic Powers Act gives a president unfettered ability to set tariffs for any country, at any level, for as long as needed, whenever an emergency is declared at the president’s sole discretion.
• Trump, the first president to invoke the law to impose tariffs, argues its broad text gives him sweeping power as an extension of his responsibility for foreign affairs and national security. The law, known as IEEPA, specifies that the president can "regulate importation or exportation" of goods in response to an “unusual and extraordinary threat” to the nation’s security "if the president declares a national emergency."
• A coalition of small business owners and Democrat-led states sued Trump over the tariffs arguing both that the word "regulate" in the law does not cover tariffs or taxes, which are not explicitly mentioned, and that the "emergencies" Trump declared are neither unusual nor extraordinary as required by the law.

(Source: ABC News)

• Employment opportunities hit their lowest level in more than 4½ years as October ended and the government shutdown dragged on, according to data from jobs site Indeed. The firm’s Job Postings Index¹fell to 101.9 as of Oct. 24, the most recent point for which data is available. That’s the lowest since early February 2021 for a measure that uses February 2020 as a baseline value of 100.
• The level represents a 0.5% decline from the beginning of the month and a roughly 3.5% tumble from mid-August, the latest point from which Bureau of Labour Statistics data is available.
• Under normal conditions, the BLS on Tuesday would have reported its monthly Job Openings and Labour Turnover Survey, a measure that Federal Reserve officials watch closely for indications of slack in the jobs market. With the shutdown on the precipice of being the longest in history, economists and policymakers are left to look at alternative data for big-picture indicators.
• The most recent JOLTS report, for August, also indicated an ongoing decline in openings. The BLS reported that job openings totalled 7.23 million, about the level of July but down 7.0% from January.
• A softening labour market has generated concern from Fed officials. Last week, the central bank’s Federal Open Market Committee voted 10-2 to lower its benchmark interest rate by a quarter percentage point to a target range of 3.75%-4%. Officials have cited rising risks to the labour market taking precedence over ongoing concerns about inflation holding nearly a full percentage point above the Fed’s 2% target.

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¹A job postings index is a metric that measures the number of new job advertisements posted online over a specific period, like a day or a month.

(Source: CNBC)

• On October 28, 2025, Hurricane Melissa made landfall in Jamaica as a Category 5 hurricane – the strongest recorded storm in the island’s history – just over a year after Hurricane Beryl. Jamaica’s storm history provides guideposts for the extent of the potential negative economic impact stemming from Hurricane Melissa. Data from Jamaica show the severe impact of storms, even when they do not make landfall.
• For example, Hurricane Beryl, which narrowly avoided landfall in July 2024, resulted in a significant GDP contraction in both Q2 and Q3 2024, with GDP falling 2.7% peak to trough. This contraction was driven by declines in agriculture (-9.1% q-o-q), mining (-10.7%), and utilities (-5.2%), and all but two sectors contracted in Q3 2024. Despite strong growth to start the year, the economy contracted by 0.7% in 2024, largely due to Beryl’s damage. Furthermore, other storms since 2000 that caused at least US$100Mn in direct damages saw, on average, a peak-to-trough contraction of 2.3%.
• Given its unprecedented strength, the impact from Hurricane Melissa is likely to be even more severe. BMI research expects the storm to contract overall domestic output by 3.0%–6.0% peak to trough. This contraction follows a spirited economic recovery after 2024’s devastating storm season.
• Considering the path of the storm through the western portion of the island – including the parish of St. Elizabeth, Jamaica’s agricultural heartland – BMI sees scope for sizable contractions in agricultural output, as seen following previous storms. Additionally, given the noticeable contraction in Jamaica’s tourism industry following Hurricane Beryl, with stopover arrivals falling 6.8% y-o-y in Q3 2024, expectations are for a more severe impact following Hurricane Melissa, which made landfall and passed close to Montego Bay, a key resort area home to a large cruise terminal and international airport that accounted for 80.9% of stopover arrivals in 2024.
• This impact will be compounded by higher inflation and increased imports. Indeed, headline inflation rose 1.4pp in August 2024 following Hurricane Beryl – driven by food price increases – and BMI expects a similar, temporary jump in domestic prices following Hurricane Melissa. Additionally, falling inbound tourism will reduce services exports and narrow the country’s trade and current account balances. Furthermore, expectations are for Jamaica’s goods trade deficit to widen due to a temporary increase in food imports amid widespread crop destruction, further weighing on growth. That said, Jamaica’s external position will be buttressed by increased remittance inflows, potentially offsetting some lost inflows from declining services exports.
• Nonetheless, overall threats to macro stability are lessened by Jamaica’s successful pro-growth reforms. Jamaica’s monetary authorities have successfully stabilised domestic inflation expectations by implementing a credible inflation-targeting monetary policy regime, a tailwind for price stability. Additionally, the government has made significant progress to stabilise its finances in the past decade, substantially reducing the size of its fiscal deficit. This has helped to limit its reliance on external financing, while increasing its reserves, supporting Jamaica’s macro stability in the face of severe external shocks, and ensuring it can pay for necessary imports.
• Moreover, while Jamaica’s recovery will likely be prolonged, the country has developed fiscal buffers to defend against natural disasters and support rebuilding. This includes Jamaica’s US$150Mn catastrophe bond and the island’s disaster funding coverage at over US$800Mn as of June 2025, as assessed by the Minister of Finance. Crucially, these resources have already been budgeted and funded – a tailwind for continued fiscal stability. However, should recovery require substantially more funds than currently allocated, Jamaica’s sustainable fiscal position gives it scope to increase relief spending without risk of destabilising the country’s finances.

(Source: BMI, A Fitch Solutions Company)

• In a release on November 3, 2025, the Bank of Jamaica (BOJ) noted that it, alongside the Jamaica Bankers Association (JBA), is actively exploring initiatives to make banking services, including access to cash, available in the shortest possible time, particularly to the parishes that have been heavily impacted by Hurricane Melissa. 
• While banks have been able to resume operations in many areas, they are experiencing significant challenges reactivating their branch and automated teller machine (ATM) networks across the country. The challenges result from physical damage, the dislocation suffered by staff of the financial institutions, difficulty accessing roadways to towns where the branches and ATMs are located and the absence of electricity and telecommunication services in many communities. In addition, financial institutions face enormous challenges with security in the prevailing conditions.
• Critical payment and settlement systems, such as the BOJ-operated Real Time Gross Settlement System (RTGS), are operational. Furthermore, the central bank has suspended its fees charged to banks for the transfer and settlement of funds via the RTGS until further notice and expects that the banks will pass on the fee waiver benefit to their customers.
• The BOJ is also exploring with deposit-taking institutions (DTIs) what other temporary relief initiatives for bank customers are possible, particularly for those residing or operating businesses in areas that have been ravaged by the hurricane.

(Source: BOJ)

• Guyana entered the oil era in 2019 with US$1.8Bn in debt. Six years later, that figure skyrocketed to over US$7.7Bn, a fourfold explosion in borrowing under the current administration. At the end of 2024, Guyana’s debt stood at US$6Bn, but another US$1.7Bn was added to finance the 2025 Budget, as revealed by Vice President Bharrat Jagdeo.
• Since commencing oil production in December 2019, the country has earned just over US$7.8Bn in oil revenue, according to the latest Bank of Guyana (BoG) report on the Natural Resource Fund (NRF). Notably, almost US$4.6Bn has already been withdrawn by the government since the inception of the Fund.
• The country now finds itself paying high interest on the money it borrowed to finance its development agenda. However, the government believes in its ability to repay the debt in light of earnings from the oil sector. The Irfaan Ali-led administration has often touted the low GDP-to-debt service ratio, meaning that the country’s Gross Domestic Product (GDP) far outweighs the country’s annual repayment on loans.
• However, it should be noted that the country’s growth in GDP, while largely reflective of exports from the petroleum sector, is not the real value that the country receives from the sector. For instance, Guyana’s total crude oil exports amounted to US$17.9Bn in 2024, but Guyana only received US$2.6Bn in revenue from the sector during the same period.
• Stakeholders have frequently warned that while the country is “rich on paper”, it risks slipping into a dangerous debt crisis that many oil-producing states previously fell prey to. In 2019, the country’s debt was US$1.8Bn; according to Annual Reports from the Bank of Guyana (BoG), the nation’s debt grew by 46.7% in 2020 to US$2.6Bn. In 2021, the debt surged to US$3.1Bn, and in 2022, this trend continued with the total stock of debt climbing to US$3.7Bn.
• Experts and politicians have also warned the Guyana Government about excessive borrowing on the back of its oil revenues. Only recently, the United Kingdom increased its export credit financing limit for Guyana from £2.1Bn to £3.0Bn, a move billed by both London and Georgetown as a vote of confidence in Guyana’s accelerating economic progress. But amid the applause, commentators have sharply warned that Guyana must tread carefully. Failure to do so, they say, risks plunging the country into a debt trap, especially given the volatility of oil prices and the nation’s already heavy external and domestic obligations.

(Source: Kaieteur News)

• The Dominican Republic’s economy expanded by 2.2% between January and September 2025, compared to the same period in 2024, according to the Central Bank (BCRD). Governor Héctor Valdez Albizu attributed the growth to key sectors such as agriculture (3.9%), mining (3.7%), financial services (7.4%), and tourism (3.3%), which benefited from the arrival of 8.6 million visitors, a 2.7% increase year-over-year.
• Valdez Albizu highlighted that exports reached US$11.6Bn, up 11.7%, while tourism revenues totalled US$8.5Bn and remittances US$8.9Bn. Foreign direct investment stood at US$4 billion, led by projects in mining, energy, and communications.
• The Central Bank projects that the economy will gradually return to its potential growth in the coming quarters as global conditions stabilise and investment increases. The Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean (ECLAC) estimate overall growth of 3.4% for the Dominican Republic by the end of 2025.

(Source: Dominican Today)