• The Bank of Jamaica’s (BOJ’s) Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) unanimously increased the policy rate by 50 basis points (bps) to 6.0% at its September 24–25, 2026 meetings, bringing the policy rate to levels last seen in April 2025. The hike takes effect today, September 29 and represents the first rate change since the BOJ cut rates in February of this year.
• The decision was in response to a deterioration in the inflation outlook since the previous meeting, as escalating tensions in the Middle East and the Russia-Ukraine conflict have contributed to persistently high international commodity prices. Worsening El Niño conditions have also placed further pressure on domestic agricultural prices, exacerbating inflationary pressures. Considering these factors, the MPC judged that tighter policy was necessary to limit second-round effects and prevent elevated inflation from becoming embedded in expectations.
• Headline inflation accelerated to 7.9% in August 2026, from 7.5% in July and 1.2% in August 2025, marking the third consecutive month above the upper end of the BOJ’s 4.0%–6.0% target range. The increase was primarily driven by higher agricultural prices following drought conditions and reduced crop yields, particularly for vegetables, alongside the pass-through of higher international commodity prices to domestic energy costs. Core inflation, which excludes agricultural food products and fuel, remained at 5.2%, unchanged from July but above the 4.2% recorded a year earlier, with the BOJ noting emerging, although still limited, second-round effects on processed food and selected services.
• The BOJ now expects inflation to continue rising in the near term before returning to the target range by mid-2027. This, however, is hinged on the duration of geopolitical conflicts. Higher international commodity prices are expected to continue feeding into domestic energy and transportation costs, while worsening El Niño conditions could cause agricultural prices to rise further. Inflationary pressures could also be reinforced by increased domestic demand associated with the Government of Jamaica’s recovery spending and the normalisation of activity following Hurricane Melissa. The MPC’s latest assessment therefore represents a less favourable near-term inflation outlook than at its August meeting.
• Inflation risks over the next eight quarters remain skewed to the upside, with rising expectations adding to concerns over more persistent price pressures. Businesses’ 12-month inflation expectations increased to 7.3% in July from 6.7% in June, while indicating likely wage pressure in the economy. Furthermore, the MPC also highlighted higher agricultural prices and stronger-than-expected domestic spending as key risks. More prolonged geopolitical tensions could further increase the pass-through of international commodity prices into domestic inflation, although weaker consumer purchasing power could partially offset these pressures by reducing demand.
• Despite the more restrictive policy stance, Jamaica’s healthy international reserves and relatively stable foreign exchange (FX) rate continue to provide an important buffer against external shocks. The MPC noted that global financial conditions have tightened faster than previously projected, including the Federal Reserve’s 25bps increase in September to 3.75%–4.00%. However, adequate reserves should continue to support FX market stability and limit the extent of imported inflation. Against this backdrop, the BOJ noted that it remains prepared to deploy additional policy tools if necessary to contain second-round inflation pressures and return inflation to target.

(Sources: JSE & NCBCM Research)

• Scotia Group Jamaica Limited (SGJL) announced on September 29, 2026, that the consideration under its proposed privatization Scheme has been increased from JMD$61.50 per stock unit to JMD$75.00 per stock unit, a 21.95% increase. The revised offer follows SGJL’s strong second- and third-quarter results and the receipt of an improved proposal from its majority shareholder, Scotiabank Caribbean Holdings Limited (SCHL), to increase the purchase price under the previously announced privatisation transaction. SCHL currently owns 71.78% of SGJL’s issued and outstanding shares.
• The revised purchase price of J$75.00 per share represents a premium of approximately 38% to the thirty-day volume-weighted average trading price of SGJL shares on the Jamaica Stock Exchange (JSE) as at June 11, 2026, the last trading day prior to the original transaction announcement, and a 27% premium to SGJL’s closing price of J$59.00 on September 28, 2026.
• The terms and conditions of the arrangement agreement otherwise remain unchanged. Some large institutional shareholders have also entered into voting support arrangements in favour of the transaction at the increased price, collectively representing 21.12% of the minority shareholding. The transaction will continue to be undertaken by way of a court-approved Scheme of Arrangement under the Companies Act, 2004. The Supreme Court of Jamaica’s Commercial Division granted SGJL permission on July 15, 2026, to convene the scheme meetings. The meeting of minority SGJL shareholders is scheduled for October 7, 2026, at 11:00 a.m. at the AC Marriott in Kingston.
• If approved, the transaction is expected to close in the fourth calendar quarter of 2026, subject to court approval and other customary closing conditions. Shareholders will continue to have the option to receive payment in either Jamaican or United States dollars, based on the Bank of Jamaica’s (BOJ’s) weighted average selling rate three days before the settlement date.
• According to Management, the increased offer follows strong operating performance by SGJL. The company reported net income of J$10.08Bn for the six months ended April 30, 2026, up 9.5% from J$9.21Bn a year earlier. This was supported by total revenues excluding expected credit losses increasing 11.1% to J$37.1Bn.
• SGJL has demonstrated a strong long-term earnings trajectory, with net profit attributable to stockholders increasing from J$11.3Bn in 2016 to J$19.9Bn in 2025, representing a 6.5% Compound Annual Growth Rate (CAGR), despite the disruption caused by the COVID-19 pandemic.
• Following a decline to J$8.64Bn in 2021, earnings recovered to a record J$20.2Bn in 2024 before easing marginally by 1.3% to J$19.9Bn in 2025. The recovery was supported by balance-sheet expansion, with deposits increasing 33.4% between 2022 and 2025 to J$529.8Bn and performing loans rising from J$230.6Bn to J$345.6Bn, while net interest income increased from J$30.6Bn to J$50.0Bn over the same period.

(Sources: Scotia Group Jamaica Limited, JSE & NCBCM Research)

• Shareholders of EduFocal Limited (LEARN), at the Annual General Meeting (AGM) held on September 10, 2026, and the Reconvened AGM held on September 25, 2026, approved the company’s proposed name change to Walstron Limited. Approval was also given for an expansion of its corporate mandate beyond education technology to include technology, commerce, properties and real estate. The change reflects management’s broader growth strategy, which will allow EduFocal to remain as an operating brand while the company develops additional business activities.
• The broader corporate strategy comes as EduFocal seeks to address significant balance-sheet pressures through a two-part recapitalisation. The first component is a proposed land-for-shares transaction, under which EduFocal would acquire land assets in exchange for newly issued shares. The transaction is at an advanced stage, with execution expected in the fourth quarter of the financial year ending December 31, 2026 (Q4 2026), subject to final documentation and regulatory approvals.
• The second component involves a restructuring of the company’s debt, including the conversion of a portion of its liabilities into equity, with both measures intended to strengthen shareholders’ equity and reduce finance costs.
• The debt restructuring is expected to reduce the interest burden, while the land transaction would add tangible assets to a balance sheet currently dominated by intangible assets.
• The financial pressures behind the recapitalisation was evident in EduFocal’s H1 2026 results. Revenues for the first half of the year (H1 2026) fell 55.1% year-over-year (YoY) to J$19.37Mn and the company recorded a J$4.03Mn net loss for H1 FY2026 compared with a J$0.82Mn loss in H1 2025. Management therefore views the planned debt restructuring as central to improving the company’s performance.
• The company’s broader financial pressures are also evident in its balance sheet, which remains heavily constrained by debt and accumulated losses, highlighting the importance of the planned recapitalisation. As at June 30, 2026, cash stood at just J$0.1Mn while current liabilities amounted to J$214.4Mn, significantly exceeding current assets of J$45.5Mn. Total borrowings amounted to J$261.7Mn at the end of FY2025, while shareholders’ equity remained negative at J$166.9Mn.
• LEARN’s share price has declined since the start of the year to close at $0.16 (-42.9%) on September 28, 2026. The company reported negative earnings and negative shareholders' equity, resulting in negative P/B and P/E multiples and limiting the usefulness of traditional valuation metrics.

(Sources: JSE & NCBCM Research)

• Guyana’s next phase of natural gas development will depend on securing major buyers and establishing a clear roadmap for new industries, according to ExxonMobil Guyana President Alistair Routledge. Speaking at the Georgetown Chamber of Commerce and Industry (GCCI) energy luncheon, Routledge said ExxonMobil and the government are working to align offshore gas supply with potential industrial demand, infrastructure requirements and onshore investment opportunities.
• Routledge noted that developing a larger gas market requires offshore production, pipelines, industrial facilities and customers to be ready within the same timeframe. Unlike oil, which can be stored and transported relatively easily, natural gas requires specialised infrastructure and customers able to receive it as production begins. Investors also need certainty of supply before committing capital, while ExxonMobil needs sufficient demand to justify the associated pipelines and infrastructure.
• Routledge identified data centres, alumina smelting and additional power generation as potential sources of demand, adding that technical requirements also determine the minimum volumes of gas that must flow through a pipeline. The discussions form part of Guyana’s efforts to expand gas development beyond the Gas-to-Energy project at Wales, West Bank Demerara, which is intended to supply gas from the offshore Liza field to a 300-megawatt power plant and a natural gas liquids processing facility.
• The government plans to establish a second gas pipeline and industrial park in Berbice to support energy-intensive industries, including alumina processing, fertiliser production and data centres. ExxonMobil has estimated that the pipeline could cost US$2.00Bn or more. Routledge called for greater clarity on where facilities will be built, the land required and the location of supporting infrastructure, including port facilities, as well as the fiscal arrangements that would govern investments.
• He also emphasised the benefits of using Guyana’s natural gas domestically rather than focusing solely on exports, noting that exporting liquefied natural gas (LNG) would retain very little value in the country beyond the sale of gas. Bringing gas ashore, he argued, could generate more jobs, attract additional investment and support economic diversification through manufacturing and other industries. He identified the GCCI, the Private Sector Commission and other chambers as important partners in helping investors find local suppliers and business partners.
• The comments suggest that Guyana’s gas ambitions will depend less on resource availability than on coordinating demand, infrastructure and policy. Securing anchor buyers and clarifying the industrial and fiscal framework for the Berbice project will therefore be key to capturing more domestic value from the country’s gas resources. If realised, a gas-based industrial sector could broaden Guyana’s economy beyond crude oil exports, lower electricity costs for households and businesses, and create more skilled jobs and opportunities for local suppliers. Greater diversification would also reduce the economy’s sensitivity to oil price swings and support more balanced long-term growth. However, delays in aligning demand, infrastructure and fiscal terms could leave much of this value unrealised and reinforce the country’s reliance on oil revenues.

(Sources: OilNOW & NCBCM Research)

• Brazil’s annual inflation rate rose to 4.47% in the period to mid-September 2026, up from 4.24% a month earlier and above both the central bank’s 3.00% inflation target and the 4.30% median estimate of economists polled by Reuters, according to the Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics (IBGE).
• On a monthly basis, consumer prices increased by 0.70%, reversing a 0.40% decline in mid-August 2026 and exceeding the 0.53% median forecast. Housing costs were the main driver, rising by 2.07% as electricity prices moved higher, while food and beverage prices rose by 0.4%. Annual inflation remained within the central bank’s target range of 3.0%, plus or minus 1.5 percentage points.
• Earlier this month, the central bank lowered the benchmark Selic rate by 25 basis points to 13.75%, its fifth consecutive cut, citing signs of an economic slowdown. At that meeting, the bank kept its options open ahead of next month’s presidential election, in which inflation has become a central campaign issue as leftist President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva seeks re-election in a tight race against right-wing Senator Flavio Bolsonaro.
• The stronger-than-expected reading adds to concerns about persistent price pressures as the central bank weighs its next steps.

(Source: Reuters)

• Oil prices climbed sharply on September 28, 2026, after President Donald Trump rejected Iran’s latest proposal to end the conflict and reopen the Strait of Hormuz. Brent crude rose 3.29% to US$107.75 per barrel, while WTI increased 2.32% to US$94.55 per barrel in early trading, reflecting renewed concerns over global energy supply.
• Prices later pared most of those gains as expectations grew that Qatari mediators would hold further talks with the US and Iran. Brent ultimately settled 0.9% higher at US$105.28 per barrel, while WTI gained 0.2% to US$92.60 per barrel.
• Iran’s proposal was presented at the UN General Assembly and transmitted to the US through Qatari mediators. Trump rejected the plan but said he expected US negotiators to continue talks this week, suggesting that diplomatic efforts have not ended.
• The renewed rise in oil prices added to inflation concerns and upward pressure on Treasury yields, as investors assessed whether higher energy costs could require the Federal Reserve (Fed) to maintain a tighter policy stance. The Fed raised rates by 25 basis points earlier this month, while policymakers have signalled that further increases may be needed if inflation remains elevated.
• Markets are therefore increasingly sensitive to developments in the US-Iran conflict, particularly any changes in oil flows through the Strait of Hormuz. The waterway handled around one-fifth of global oil and liquefied natural gas supplies before the conflict, making its reopening an important factor for the global energy outlook.
• The sharp early rise in oil prices, followed by a partial reversal as prospects for further talks improved, highlights how sensitive energy markets remain to developments in the US-Iran conflict. A prolonged disruption to Hormuz flows could keep energy prices and inflation elevated, increasing pressure on central banks to maintain tighter monetary policy.

(Source: Reuters)

• China and the United States said they will pursue tariff cuts on US$60Bn worth of goods imported from each other, covering products ranging from US agricultural goods and cosmetics to Chinese toys and household appliances. Each country identified around US$30Bn of non-sensitive goods for more favourable tariff treatment.
• For the US, the agreement could improve market access for around 30% of US exports to China, according to US Trade Representative Jamieson Greer. China plans to reduce duties on US products including corn, wheat, sorghum, meat, dairy, vegetable oils and meals, as well as fish and seafood, wood products, cosmetics and medical devices.
• However, US soybeans were excluded from China’s tariff-reduction list, despite being the country’s largest agricultural export to China at US$16.2Bn in 2025. The American Soybean Association expressed disappointment, while soybean futures fell following the announcement.
• The US, meanwhile, proposed reciprocal tariff cuts on a range of Chinese consumer goods, including small appliances, tableware, blankets, bed linens and toys. The toy category alone accounted for US$14.4Bn of US imports from China in 2024, before falling to US$9.8Bn in 2025 amid higher tariffs.
• The tariff reductions were among the key outcomes of last week’s meeting between President Donald Trump and President Xi Jinping. The countries also extended their trade truce by two months to January 10, 2027, with China saying the extension provides a more stable and predictable policy environment for companies and continued negotiations.
• The two sides did not specify the size of the tariff reductions or when they will take effect. They also agreed to establish an agriculture working group, while China committed to import 10Mn metric tons of US coal annually in 2027 and 2028.
• The agreement represents a further easing in US-China trade tensions and could support bilateral trade by improving market access for selected goods. However, the absence of implementation dates and tariff-rate details, along with the exclusion of major products such as US soybeans, suggests the near-term economic impact may remain limited.

(Source: Reuters)

• Minister of Agriculture, Fisheries and Mining, Floyd Green, is encouraging farmers with adequate water access to consider doubling their output of ground provisions and vegetables to meet upcoming Christmas demand. The Rural Agricultural Development Authority (RADA), National Irrigation Commission (NIC) and Agro-Investment Corporation (Agro-Invest) are rolling out a programme to identify willing farmers in the agro-parks with reliable water access and underutilised land, and to support them with land preparation, seeds and fertiliser, for example, expanding a five-acre operation to 10 acres.
• The Minister noted that farmers in areas without water access cannot viably expand production, even with trucked water. As a result, the push will be concentrated in irrigated areas, with the aim of ensuring sufficient food supply by the peak Christmas season.
• The remarks were made at the official handover of a J$114.59Mn irrigation transmission force main piping system at the Ebony Park Agro Park in Clarendon, undertaken by the Jamaica Social Investment Fund (JSIF) under the second Rural Economic Development Initiative (REDI-II). The project involved the installation of 1.8 kilometres of force transmission main, upgrades to existing distribution lines, rehabilitation of the pump at Spring Plain, which serves the shared Ebony Park-Spring Plain network, and installation of pump switchgear. It will improve irrigation service across Ebony Park and the adjoining Spring Plain and Mango agro-parks, which were handed over on September 17.
• The initiative aims to strengthen food security and domestic supply resilience at a time when the agricultural sector is still rebuilding following Hurricane Melissa, but is navigating renewed risks from the super El Niño event that has triggered drought conditions across primarily Eastern parishes. Higher local output of fresh produce ahead of the peak holiday season could help contain seasonal food price pressures, a key contributor to inflation, while simultaneously reducing reliance on imported food, easing pressure on foreign exchange and supporting rural incomes. Over the medium term, investment in irrigation infrastructure should make agricultural output less vulnerable to drought and other climate shocks, reinforcing the sector’s contribution to stable growth. However, the increase in output will be confined to farms with reliable water access, limiting the overall impact on national food supply. In addition, adverse weather, pests and higher input costs could reduce the expected production gains and keep produce prices elevated.

(Sources: JIS & NCBCM Research)

• Venezuela and Trinidad and Tobago (T&T) have agreed to deepen bilateral cooperation, signalling a renewed phase of engagement between the neighbouring Caribbean states. The agreement was reached on September 23, 2026, on the sidelines of the 81st United Nations (UN) General Assembly in New York, with both governments reaffirming their commitment to dialogue, mutual respect, good-neighbourliness and cooperation.
• The renewed engagement follows a period of heightened tensions between the two countries, particularly over T&T’s position on the United States’ (U.S.) actions involving Venezuela, as well as maritime and environmental issues. Relations have also been tested by disputes surrounding oil spills affecting Venezuelan waters and fishing areas, while broader regional tensions have emerged over security and U.S. policy toward Venezuela.
• Against this backdrop, the two governments have moved to establish a more structured cooperation agenda spanning trade, energy, agriculture, tourism, air connectivity, environmental protection, security and disaster-risk management. The breadth of the agenda provides scope for closer commercial ties while addressing areas of shared regional interest.
• Energy cooperation is likely to remain particularly significant given the countries’ geographic proximity and shared natural-gas interests. Both sides have strategic interests in the development and exploitation of natural-gas resources, meaning deeper engagement could support opportunities for greater regional energy cooperation and strengthen T&T’s links with Venezuela’s energy sector. The agenda also extends beyond economic cooperation into security and regional resilience, including maritime security, migration management and disaster-risk coordination.
• The two governments now intend to translate the renewed dialogue into concrete initiatives, with President Delcy Rodríguez and Prime Minister Kamla Persad-Bissessar agreeing to make official visits to Caracas and Port of Spain. For the wider Caribbean, sustained implementation of the agenda could strengthen trade, energy and regional cooperation, although progress will depend on how effectively the two sides manage the security, environmental and geopolitical issues that have recently strained relations.

(Sources: teleSUR, Reuters, and AP News)

• Bermuda’s registered business base contracted in the first half of 2026 (Q1 2026), with total registrations falling by 1,168, or 7.2%, year-on-year (YoY) to 15,122. This marks the third consecutive quarterly decline. The contraction was broad-based, with local companies falling by 442, or 10.1%, to 3,660, their lowest level since Q3 2021, while exempted companies declined by 89 to 9,702, below 10,000 for the first time in at least six years in the fourth quarter of 2025.
• The decline in international business registrations comes as Bermuda’s corporate tax regime took effect. From January 2025, Bermuda introduced a 15% Corporate Income Tax (CIT) on in-scope multinational enterprise groups with annual global revenues of at least €750Mn, aligning the jurisdiction with the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development’s (OECD’s) Global Minimum Tax framework¹.
• The timing raises questions about the island’s attractiveness as an international business domicile, particularly for entities with limited economic substance in Bermuda. The OECD-led tax reforms reduce the benefit of booking profits in low-tax jurisdictions without corresponding local operations, potentially contributing to the continued decline in registered companies. However, the available data do not establish that the CIT is the sole driver of the contraction.
• For Bermuda, the trend highlights the importance of maintaining competitiveness while adapting to the global shift toward greater tax transparency. The Government’s 2023–2027 Economic Development Strategy explicitly prioritises the retention and expansion of local and international businesses, attracting investment and strengthening entrepreneurship as part of efforts to diversify the economy.
• The sustained decline in registrations could therefore have implications beyond the corporate sector, including government revenues, employment and demand for professional and financial services. While the new CIT is expected to generate meaningful government revenue from 2026 onwards, Bermuda will need to balance these fiscal gains against the potential loss of business activity as international firms reassess their domiciliations.

(Sources: The Royal Gazette & Government of Bermuda)