• Local inflation remained elevated in August, although the pace of monthly price increases moderated. According to data from the Statistical Institute of Jamaica (STATIN), consumer prices rose 0.6%, compared with 1.2% in July. While point-to-point (P2P) inflation increased for the fourth consecutive month to 7.9%, from 7.5% in July, moving it further above the Bank of Jamaica’s (BOJ) 4.0%–6.0% target range and extending the breach the central bank had previously characterised as temporary.
• Food prices remained a major source of pressure, with the Food and Non-Alcoholic Beverages division increasing by 1.5% during August. Prices rose across several agricultural items, including Irish potato, sweet potato, cabbage, tomato and pumpkin, driving a 4.7% monthly increase in the Vegetables, Tubers, Plantains, Cooking Bananas and Pulses class. The class was 18.1% higher year-on-year, highlighting the sensitivity of the inflation outlook to domestic agricultural supply conditions.
• Transport costs added further pressure, rising by 0.7% during August amid higher petrol prices and toll rates. Fuels and Lubricants increased by 3.5% during the month and 23.5% P2P, while tolls and related services rose by 2.3%. Consequently, Transport remained the largest contributor to annual inflation, increasing by 14.6% P2P. This reflected both the continued pass-through of the July 2026 route-taxi and hackney-carriage fare adjustment and a 15.4% annual increase in passenger transport by road. Importantly, the combined impact of higher fuel prices, fares and tolls could extend beyond the Transport division by raising distribution and operating costs across the wider economy.
• The increase was partly tempered by a 0.7% decline in the Housing, Water, Electricity, Gas and Other Fuels division, the only major division to record a monthly contraction. This largely reflected a 2.6% reduction in Electricity, Gas and Other Fuels following lower electricity rates. However, the division remained 4.8% higher on a P2P basis, owing to higher imputed rentals and household energy costs. The relief from lower electricity rates may prove temporary if elevated global fuel prices persist and subsequently feed through to domestic electricity charges.
• Overall, the latest outturn suggests that inflation remains heavily influenced by food, energy and administered transport costs. These pressures are largely supply-driven and may therefore be less responsive to higher interest rates in the near term. Nevertheless, their persistence could generate second-round effects through higher business costs, wages and inflation expectations, particularly given that core inflation was already above the BOJ’s target range. This reduces the central bank’s scope to ease monetary policy despite Jamaica’s still-fragile economic recovery.
• Food and energy remain the principal upside risk to the inflation outlook. Worsening El Niño-induced drought conditions could constrain domestic agricultural production and sustain elevated food prices, while geopolitical tensions and higher global energy prices could continue to pass through to fuel, electricity, transportation and distribution costs. Conversely, if the droughts abate and global tensions ease, improved agricultural supply and lower electricity charges could contribute to some moderation over the coming months.
• Attention now turns to the BOJ’s September 28 policy decision, the first full quarterly policy cycle under Governor Dr Brian Langrin, who succeeded Richard Byles on August 19. The Monetary Policy Committee held the policy rate at 5.50% in August, noting that headline and core inflation had risen to 7.5% and 5.2%, respectively. Although the BOJ expects inflation to moderate after the September quarter, the continued rise in the annual rate and the risk of second-round effects strengthen the case for maintaining a restrictive policy stance. A further increase in the policy rate may become more likely if price pressures broaden beyond food, fuel and regulated transport costs.

(Sources: STATIN & NCBCM Research)

• The Dominican Republic announced on September 15, 2026, the commencement of a cash tender offer to purchase its 5.95% bonds due 2027, of which US$1.7Bn remains outstanding. This tender offer forms part of the government’s debt management strategy and part of a broader programme of the Republic to actively manage and restructure its sovereign debt portfolio, lower near-term refinancing pressures, and retire or exchange legacy obligations ahead of their maturity.
• Holders will receive a fixed price of US$1,006.25 per US$1,000 of principal amount, plus accrued and unpaid interest to but excluding the settlement date, with the buyback capped at a maximum purchase price the Republic will set in its sole discretion.
• The offer carries no minimum participation threshold, but it is conditioned, among other things, on the concurrent or earlier closing of a new issue of U.S. dollar-denominated, New York law-governed notes in an amount and on pricing and terms acceptable to the Republic. The new notes will be offered only by means of a separate offering memorandum.
• If the aggregate purchase price of validly tendered bonds, excluding accrued interest, exceeds the maximum purchase price, the Republic will apply a proration factor to tenders. It also reserves the right to reject valid tenders, modify the fixed purchase price or terminate the offer for any reason, in which case tendered bonds would be returned to holders.
• The offer commenced on Tuesday, September 15, and expires at 5:00 p.m. New York City time on Monday, September 21, 2026, unless extended or earlier terminated. Bonds may be validly withdrawn at any time up to the expiration time, and settlement of accepted bonds is expected on Monday, September 28, 2026. The Republic expects to announce the aggregate principal amount tendered at about 9:00 a.m. New York City time on Tuesday, September 22, then the maximum purchase price, the tendered aggregate purchase price, the amount accepted and any proration at about 5:00 p.m. the same day.

(Sources: PR Newswire & NCBCM Research)

• Guyana is now projected to receive approximately US$6.5Bn from oil sales and royalties in 2026, more than double the US$2.7Bn forecast at the beginning of the year. The revision, contained in the government’s 2026 Mid-Year Report published September 14, is an increase of nearly US$3.8Bn, or about 137%. The stronger projection reflects both higher oil prices and declining cost recovery at the ExxonMobil-operated Stabroek Block.
• Under the Stabroek Block production sharing agreement, up to 75% of crude produced can be allocated to recover eligible contractor costs, with the remainder treated as profit oil and split equally between Guyana and the contractors. With a substantial portion of historical development spending now recovered, fewer barrels are needed to pay back those costs, so more production becomes profit and Guyana receives more cargoes without a matching increase in output.
• Prices have amplified the effect, with crude running well above the government’s initial expectations during 2026 amid conflict in the Middle East. Output has also run ahead of projections, averaging approximately 899,000 barrels per day (b/d) over the first eight months against a forecast of about 840,000 b/d, roughly 59,000 b/d or 7% higher, all before the Uaru development produced a single barrel.
• The stronger performance is already visible in the Natural Resource Fund (NRF). Guyana received more than US$2.3Bn (GY$480.55Bn) from oil sales and royalties in the first seven months of the year, and a further US$776.3 million (GY$161.86Bn) was deposited in August from profit oil sales, according to the Bank of Guyana. That took eight-month revenue to approximately US$3.08Bn (GY$642.41Bn), surpassing the original full-year projection of about US$2.79Bn with four months still to run, and left the NRF at roughly US$4.89Bn (GY$1.02Tn) at the end of August, above the GY$1 trillion mark for the first time.
• Four floating production, storage and offloading (FPSO) vessels are producing at Stabroek: Liza Destiny, Liza Unity, Prosperity and ONE GUYANA. The Errea Wittu FPSO serving Uaru is expected to begin production later this year and is designed for up to 250,000 b/d once fully ramped, lifting installed capacity well beyond one million b/d. Guyana’s oil and gas sector is projected to generate about US$27.3Bn in export earnings in 2026, making the government’s projected take equivalent to roughly 23.8% of that total. ExxonMobil operates the block with a 45% interest, alongside Chevron (through Hess) at 30% and CNOOC at 25%.

(Source: OilNOW)

• The benchmark US 10-year Treasury yield climbed to 5.041% on September 15, 2026, its highest level since 2007. The move extended a sharp bond-market sell-off as investors prepared for a widely expected Federal Reserve interest-rate increase this week.
• Renewed inflation concerns have added to the upward pressure on yields, as oil prices remained above US$105 per barrel following fresh Middle East tensions. Higher energy prices, alongside firm US economic data and elevated inflation, have strengthened expectations that monetary policy will need to remain restrictive.
• A Reuters poll conducted after the latest inflation data showed 85% of economists, or 86 of 101, expect the Fed to raise the federal funds rate by 25 basis points to 3.75%–4.00% at its September 15–16 meeting. This would mark the first increase since July 2023.
• Markets are also anticipating further tightening. CME’s FedWatch tool priced a 95% probability of a rate increase on September 16, while Reuters noted that investors increasingly expect the move could be the start of a series of rate hikes as the Fed seeks to contain persistent price pressures.
• Beyond inflation and Fed expectations, Treasury yields have also been supported by heavy debt issuance, concerns over the US fiscal trajectory and a still-resilient economic growth outlook. Increased bond supply, including borrowing linked to record AI-related investment, has added further upward pressure on yields.
• A sustained 10-year Treasury yield around or above 5% could tighten financial conditions beyond the Fed’s policy rate, as Treasury yields feed directly into mortgage, consumer, corporate and municipal borrowing costs. Higher yields could also make bonds more competitive relative to equities, potentially increasing pressure on stock valuations if rates remain elevated.

(Source: Reuters)

• Britain’s labour market remains weak ahead of the Bank of England’s (BoE) interest rate decision later this week. Regular wage growth held at 3.5% year-over-year in the three months to July 2026, close to its slowest pace since 2020 and broadly in line with economists’ expectations. The unemployment rate remained unchanged at 4.9% over the same period.
• Job vacancies declined to 702,000 in the three months to August 2026, the lowest since 2014 excluding the COVID-19 pandemic period. Small businesses cited the high cost of employment as one reason for limited hiring.
• Hiring also continued to weaken, with preliminary tax data showing the number of payrolled employees fell by 26,000 in August. Private-sector wage growth has also cooled, reducing concerns that higher inflation could become embedded through stronger wage increases.
• The BoE is assessing whether the rise in energy prices stemming from the Iran conflict will interrupt the gradual cooling in wage growth and underlying inflation pressures. Despite those risks, the weaker labour-market data has reinforced expectations that policymakers will keep rates unchanged at the central bank’s September 17 meeting.
• Investors on September 14 were pricing roughly a one-in-three chance of a 25-basis-point rate hike on Thursday, while a November increase was seen as almost certain, followed by another potential move in December.
• The continued cooling in wages and hiring reduces the immediate risk of a wage-price spiral, giving the BoE some room to hold rates despite the renewed energy-driven inflation shock. However, persistently high oil prices could shift the balance toward tightening later in the year, which explains why markets are assigning a much higher probability to a November hike.

(Source: Reuters)

• Despite improved topline, Fontana Limited (FTNA) reported a 12.9% decline in net profit to $507.80Mn for the year ended June 30, 2026, from a restated $583.09Mn in FY2025. The weaker earnings reflected one-off disruption costs associated with Hurricane Melissa, alongside higher financing and amortisation expenses related to its acquisition of Monarch Pharmacy in March 2025.
• Buoyed by continued same-store sales growth, increased customer activity, and a growing contribution from the four Monarch Pharmacy locations, revenue was up 12.4% to $10.70Bn.
• However, the stronger top-line performance was accompanied by faster growth in its cost base, with cost of sales increasing 13.2% to $6.68Bn. As a result, gross margin narrowed by 44 basis points to 37.6%. The margin compression reflected lower sales volumes of higher-margin products at the Western locations, which were significantly affected by Hurricane Melissa, as well as a $15.81Bn inventory write-off related to hurricane damage.
• Total operating expenses (Opex) increased 18.3% to $3.36Bn, outpacing revenue growth, with administrative and other expenses rising 19.2% to $3.26Bn. Higher staff and support costs associated with expanded operations, integration and one-time expenses related to the Monarch acquisition, and set-up costs for its new Ora concept stores were the primary drivers of the increase in Opex. The temporary costs from store closures, reduced trading hours, and ramp-up activities at newly acquired and opened locations.
• The bottom line was further compounded by finance costs, which rose 12.5% to $280.89Mn, reflecting higher loan interest, which more than doubled by 105.7% to $128.52Mn. The increase reflected the additional costs associated with the $300Mn Tranche B senior unsecured bond raised during the year to support working capital requirements.
• Looking ahead, Fontana remains focused on completing the integration of Monarch locations, expanding the Ora by Fontana beauty and skincare concept (including a planned Sovereign Centre location), and pursuing further network growth, with management continuing to note improving revenue-to-expense alignment across the acquired stores as integration matures.
• However, there are risks. Escalating geopolitical tensions could disrupt the supply of imported goods, increase input and procurement costs, and ultimately weigh on revenue growth if product availability is constrained or higher costs are passed on to customers. Additionally, rising inflation presents significant risks to consumer spending and demand for Fontana’s products due to weaker purchasing power. Fontana also carries elevated finance costs following its recent bond issuances, and its goodwill balance of $698.3Mn (arising from the Barbican and Monarch acquisitions) remains subject to annual impairment testing, a matter auditors flagged as a key audit matter. That said, no impairment was identified as at FY 2026 year-end.
• At the close of trading on September 14, 2026, FTNA's share price was J$6.18, representing a 20.7% decline year-to-date. At this level, the stock trades at a P/E of 16.7x, which is in line with the Junior Market Distribution Sector average of 16.6x.

(Sources: JSE & NCBCM Research)

• Passenger traffic across Global Airport Partners’ (GAP) Jamaican operations showed a pronounced divergence, with Kingston delivering modest year on year growth while Montego Bay recorded a sharp contraction. The contrasting performance highlights continued weakness in Jamaica’s tourism-driven air traffic, particularly at Sangster International, which experienced the steepest decline across GAP’s 12 airports in Mexico plus two in Jamaica, during the month.
• At Kingston’s Norman Manley International Airport, passenger traffic increased 2.8% year-over-year to 205,100 in August, driven by a 3.0% rise in international passengers. Overall, International travel continued to account for virtually all airport traffic, with domestic activity remaining negligible
• Montego Bay’s Sangster International Airport, by contrast, saw total passenger traffic plunge 23.0% year-on-year to 344,600 passengers. Given the airport’s near-exclusive reliance on international traffic, the 23.0% decline in international passengers closely mirrored the overall contraction, pointing to continued softness in inbound tourism and/or capacity from key source markets.
• The divergence becomes more pronounced on a year-to-date basis. For January–August 2026, Kingston’s passenger traffic declined a relatively modest 1.5% to 1.25 million, while Montego Bay recorded a much steeper 26.2% contraction to 2.63 million passengers. The weakness at Sangster is not simply a one-month disruption but part of a sustained trend since the passage of Melissa.
• Despite the contraction, Montego Bay remains significantly larger than Kingston, handling roughly twice the passenger traffic both in August and year-to-date. As a result, the sharp decline at Sangster more than outweighed Kingston’s modest growth and pulled the Jamaican operations lower overall. This contrasted with the broader GAP network, where total passenger traffic increased 0.5% in August, including 2.6% growth across its 12 Mexican airports. Jamaica therefore remained a notable drag on the group’s overall traffic performance.
• Looking ahead, a gradual improvement is expected throughout the remainder of the year, but there are risks. As tourism activity normalises and the industry continues to recover from the impact of Hurricane Melissa, the outlook for Jamaica’s tourism sector remains positive. More than 1,900 hotel rooms are expected to return to the market in December alone, while over 11,000 rooms are projected to reopen between 2026 and 2027.
• The phased return of this capacity should support the sector’s recovery, strengthen accommodation availability, and position Jamaica to accommodate further growth in visitor arrivals. However, near-term risks remain, particularly from the escalation of conflict in the Middle East, which has pushed jet fuel prices higher and has been passed on to consumers through increased airfares. This could weigh on travel demand, with industry indicators already pointing to the potential for softer tourism performance later in the year.

 (Sources: Grupo Aeroportuario Del Pacifico & NCBCM Research)

• Guyana’s offshore oil production averaged 886,000 barrels per day (b/d) in July, up from 869,000 b/d in June but still below May’s 895,000 b/d, marking a third straight month below 900,000 b/d, according to government data reviewed by OilNOW. The four Stabroek Block developments had shown the ability to exceed 900,000 b/d earlier in the year.
• The softness continues to be driven by the Liza projects. Liza 1 averaged approximately 108,000 b/d in July and Liza 2 approximately 245,000 b/d, while the newer Payara and Yellowtail developments averaged roughly 263,000 b/d and 270,000 b/d, respectively.
• Liza 1, whose Liza Destiny floating production, storage and offloading (FPSO) vessel began producing in December 2019, has declined noticeably from prior-year levels. Liza 2 is less clear cut, as OilNOW’s review of daily data shows output fell sharply in the final week of July rather than declining steadily over time.
• Guyana nonetheless remains on course for another substantial increase in output from the fourth quarter of 2026. Uaru, the fifth Stabroek Block development, is expected to come onstream in the aforementioned quarter, with its Errea Wittu FPSO targeting up to 250,000 b/d, more than offsetting the Liza declines and pushing production to new highs.
• Production averaged approximately 899,000 b/d over the first seven months of 2026, with cumulative output since first oil in December 2019 reaching roughly 991.7 million barrels by the end of July. ExxonMobil has said the block passed one billion barrels during the third quarter, implying Guyana crossed the milestone in early August.
• All output comes from the Stabroek Block, operated by ExxonMobil with a 45% interest, alongside Chevron (through Hess) at 30% and CNOOC at 25%. The consortium has invested more than US$55 billion offshore Guyana, bringing four projects onstream since 2019, with Uaru to become the fifth.

(Source: OilNOW)

• El Niño in the equatorial Pacific has reached very strong intensity and could persist until June 2027, spanning Costa Rica’s entire upcoming dry season and the start of the next rainy one. That is longer and stronger than the National Meteorological Institute (IMN) projected in May, when it expected the event to reach strong intensity late this year and weaken in early 2027.
• Sea surface temperatures in the Niño 3.4 region ran about 2.5 degrees Celsius (4.5 degrees Fahrenheit) above normal in August, warmer than the same stretch of the benchmark 1997 and 2015 events. IMN meteorologist Daniel Poleo said the anomaly already qualifies as extraordinary, the label used once it passes 2 degrees Celsius (3.6 degrees Fahrenheit), and is the highest in 38 years of records, with the event likely to gain a little more force.
• Subsurface pockets running up to 6 degrees Celsius (10.8 degrees Fahrenheit) above average are expected to drift toward the coast of South America and rise, lifting surface temperatures further. Because El Niño typically peaks late in the year, current readings are unlikely to be the maximum.
• The IMN drought early warning system already places the Pacific slope, the Central Valley and the western Northern Zone, including Guatuso, Los Chiles and Upala, under meteorological drought, and Poleo expects those conditions to hold rather than ease. September is on track to close with the North Pacific roughly 80% below normal rainfall, the Central and South Pacific 60% below, the Central Valley 50% below and the western Northern Zone 10% below.
• The Caribbean is the usual El Niño exception, with the North Caribbean set to end the month about 20% wetter than normal and the South Caribbean about 30% wetter, leaving one side of the country flooding while the other dries out. From October through December the Caribbean and the eastern Northern Zone should return to normal rainfall while the western Northern Zone runs about 30% short.
• Over the same period, the Pacific and the Central Valley will slide early into dry season conditions, with rains ending ahead of schedule, above-average temperatures and a late, weaker season of cold surges from the north. Anyone relying on a well, rainwater tank, river intake or reservoir faces an extended stretch rather than a passing dry spell, though Poleo cautioned that a very strong El Niño does not scale up every impact proportionally and Costa Rica has no comparable event in the last 40 or 50 years to forecast from.

(Source: The Tico Times)

• Canada's annual inflation growth rate held at 3% in August, the same as last month, as crude prices continued to stay firm and food prices cooled moderately, data showed on Monday, September 14, 2026. Analysts polled by Reuters had forecasted the annual inflation rate at 3% and monthly inflation to register no change.
• Next month's consumer price ‌index data release, which would be for the month of September, could show further strengthening as benchmark Brent crude price crossed $100 per barrel this month and U.S. President Donald Trump's new 50% tariffs and Canada's retaliatory measures impact costs for the full month.
• On a month-on-month basis, consumer prices fell 0.1%, Statistics Canada said. Gasoline prices eased slightly in August ⁠but still increased at an annual rate of 22.8%. This was down from a 25.7% increase noted in July.
• Food prices, which have been accelerating faster than headline inflation since July, eased slightly and registered an annual growth rate of 2.8%. This was the first time in 14 months that food prices fell below the 3% mark. Prices for dairy products led the deceleration in food prices, with costs rising 0.7% annually in August compared with a 3.1% rise in July. Cheese and yoghurt were the top contributors to the slowdown in dairy prices, StatsCan said.
• CPI-median, the centermost component of the CPI basket, stood at 2%, while CPI-trim, which excludes the most extreme price changes, was at 1.9% in August, the same as reported in July. These ⁠core measures have largely hovered around 2% for the last several months, easing worries that crude prices were spilling onto other costs. Shelter costs, which include rents and mortgage interest costs, increased slightly to 1.5% in August from 1.3% in July.
• Despite the contained prices in August, the ⁠Bank of Canada (BoC) said last month that it will not hesitate to increase rates multiple times if inflation stays higher and impacts the closely watched core measures. The central bank strives to keep inflation around the midpoint of ⁠its target range of 1% to 3%.

(Source: Reuters)