• A divided U.S. Federal Reserve begins receiving updated economic reports from the now-reopened federal government this week as policymakers hope for clarity in their debate over whether to cut interest rates when they meet in just over three weeks.
• It remains unclear how much of the shutdown-delayed data, including employment, inflation, retail spending, economic growth, and other aspects of the economy, will be available by the time of the upcoming Fed meeting.
• As of Monday, the Bureau of Labour Statistics said it would publish the delayed employment report for September on Thursday, but the White House has said some of the October reports may be skipped altogether, while data gathering for November may also be hampered by a shutdown that stretched to mid-month.
• The lines of debate have been sharply drawn, and minutes of the Fed's October meeting to be released on Wednesday could provide more detail on the split that has emerged over whether the risk of higher inflation remains pronounced enough to delay rate cuts for now, or whether slowing job growth and looser monetary policy should take priority.
• "I am not worried about inflation accelerating or inflation expectations rising significantly," Fed Governor Christopher Waller said on Monday. "My focus is on the labour market, and after months of weakening, it is unlikely that the September jobs report later this week or any other data in the next few weeks would change my view that another cut is in order" when the Fed meets on December 9-10.
• Fed Vice Chair Philip Jefferson meanwhile said the central bank should go "slowly" given the benchmark interest rate, in the 3.75%-to-4.00% range, is likely nearing the level where it will no longer discourage economic activity and put downward pressure on inflation.
• Clear camps have formed within the central bank, with several Fed governors - all appointees of President Donald Trump - arguing for another cut, and several regional reserve bank presidents taking a hard line on inflation. Still, the intensity of those divisions may mask a narrower set of concerns about timing and the desire for more data to show a clearer direction for the economy.
• The Fed's approval of a quarter-percentage-point rate cut at the October 28-29 meeting included dissent in favour of both looser and tighter monetary policy, a rarity in recent decades. Afterward, Fed Chair Jerome Powell offered unusual, explicit guidance about the outcome of the December meeting.
• Those remarks and other recent data have shifted market bets away from a December cut that previously had been given high odds. Policymaker projections in September showed officials themselves anticipated the benchmark interest rate would end the year in the 3.50%-to-3.75% range, a quarter-point below where it is now. Yet that outlook already showed the sharp division emerging, and some officials since then have intensified their concerns about higher inflation.

(Source: Reuters)

• The Bank of England (BoE) will cut interest rates in December and again early next year as inflation cools over the coming months, according to a majority of economists in a Reuters poll who last month expected borrowing costs to remain unchanged for the remainder of this year.
• Next month's meeting will follow British Finance Minister Rachel Reeves' Autumn Budget on November 26, where she is no longer expected to raise income tax but will make up an expected shortfall through smaller tax rises from other sources.
• The Monetary Policy Committee voted 5-4 to leave rates unchanged earlier this month, with BoE Governor Andrew Bailey casting the deciding vote, wanting to wait for evidence of declining inflation before committing to a cut.
• Nearly 80.0% of economists, 48 of 61, expect the BoE will cut Bank Rate by 25 basis points to 3.75% on December 18, according to a Reuters poll taken November 13-18. The rest forecast no move. That compares with 54.0% who expected unchanged rates for the remainder of the year in an October survey. Around that proportion, expect a follow-up cut to 3.50% in Q1 2026.

(Source: Reuters)

• Kingston Wharves Limited (KWL) reported a 19.9% increase in its shareholder profit to $2.50Bn for the 9 months ended September 2025 (9M 2025). This improvement was anchored by robust expansion in revenues.
• 9M revenue growth mirrored that of earnings, increasing by 19.9% to $2.50Bn, driven primarily by improvements from both divisions, Terminal and Logistics Services.
• Terminal Operations Division, its larger segment, contributed $7.30Bn in revenues (+30.5%) and $2.30Bn in Operating profit (+60.2%). This performance was buoyed by strong growth in motor units handled, increased container activity and higher volumes in bulk and breakbulk operations.
• Meanwhile, the Logistics Services Division saw more moderate growth, up 7.9% to $3.30Bn, while operating profit declined by 29.4% to $760.59Mn. The decline was due to higher operating expenses due to ongoing regulatory reforms, business-strengthening initiatives, and revised cost allocations across operating segments
• Despite the drag from Logistics Services, consolidated operating profit climbed 13.6% to J$3.03Bn. A sharp increase in finance costs of 72.1% to 264.41Mn prevented a faster pace of expansion in operating profit. The rise in KWL’s finance costs was partly due to higher interest expenses, likely stemming from a 102.3% increase in short-term debt year on year.
• Despite the extensive damage sustained across the country, KWL successfully protected its assets and maintained uninterrupted operations through proactive preparedness. As Jamaica continues its recovery from Hurricane Melissa, KWL’s operations will be integral in facilitating the movement of relief supplies and supporting the wider national restoration efforts. This strategic positioning presents a significant growth opportunity for the Company and could deliver sustained value for shareholders.
• KWL’s stock has declined 11.9% year-to-date (to J$29.00 at the end of trading on Monday) and has remained largely flat post-Hurricane Melissa, suggesting that investors have not yet priced in the potential upside in the company’s performance as imports rise to support the recovery efforts. , trading at a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 13.5x. This is lower than the Main Market Energy, Industrials and Materials Sector’s average of 14.9x.

(Sources: JSE & NCBCM Research)

• Local Consumer prices rose 0.7% in October, according to the Statistical Institute of Jamaica (STATIN). This upward movement was primarily driven by the ‘Food and Non-Alcoholic Beverages’ (+1.5%) and ‘Housing, Water, Electricity, Gas and Other Fuels’ (+0.8%) segments.
• The outturn in the Food division was influenced mainly by higher prices for some agricultural produce, such as sweet potato, tomato, carrot, and cabbage in the class ‘Vegetables, tubers, plantains, cooking bananas, and pulses’. Higher housing, water and fuel prices reflected increased electricity rates.
• However, this was tempered by a 0.3% decline in the index for the ‘Transport’ division due to lower petrol prices.
• The point-to-point inflation rate between October 2024 and October 2025 increased by 2.9% versus 2.1% in September. This outcome reflects upward contributions from the ‘Food and Non-Alcoholic Beverages’ (3.0%), ‘Housing, Water, Electricity, Gas and Other Fuels’ (4.0%), and ‘Restaurant and Accommodation Services’ (4.0%) divisions.
• Given that the effects of Hurricane Melissa are expected to persist for some time, a further uptick in inflation is anticipated in the coming months. The most affected division is likely to be ‘Food and Non-Alcoholic Beverages,’ as the hurricane significantly disrupted agricultural production in some of the country’s most productive parishes - St. Elizabeth, Trelawny, and Manchester. St Elizabeth alone accounts for some 20% of the island’s agricultural output according to the Ministry of Agriculture, Fisheries, and Mining, Floyd Green. This is expected to exert upward pressure on food prices, with potential spillover effects on related divisions such as ‘Restaurants and Accommodation Services.

(Sources: STATIN, NCBCM Research)

• On November 16, 2025, the Ministry of Foreign and CARICOM Affairs advised that Trinidad and Tobago (T&T) will benefit from zero reciprocal tariffs on several qualifying agricultural products, including critical nitrogen and phosphate fertilisers entering the United States market.
• This follows the signing of an Executive Order by President Donald Trump on November 14, 2025, modifying the scope of reciprocal tariffs applied under the U.S. tariff regime. The decision reverses the earlier action of April 2, 2025, when these items were removed from Annex II of Executive Order 14257 and subjected to a 15% tariff.
• T&T will be among the beneficiaries, as the United States (U.S.)  will now impose zero tariffs on key nitrogen and phosphate fertilisers, including Anhydrous Ammonia, Urea, and Urea-Ammonium Nitrate (UAN). 
• Currently, T&T maintains a multi-billion-dollar export relationship with the United States, its single largest trading partner for both imports and exports. In 2024, the sovereign exported approximately TT$3Bn in Anhydrous Ammonia, Urea, and UAN to the United States. These products will now enter the U.S. market duty-free, enhancing the competitiveness of its exporters and protecting jobs across the national value chain.
• The update follows several months of engagement between Trinidad and Tobago and senior US officials. In August, local officials met representatives of the United States Trade Representative’s Office and the US Department of Commerce. Further, in September, Prime Minister Kamla Persad-Bissessar and senior government officials visited Washington for discussions with US Secretary of State Marco Rubio, where Trinidad and Tobago’s energy and food-security role was raised.
• Minister of Foreign and CARICOM Affairs Sean Sobers noted that the tariff removal is expected to ease the impact of the earlier increases. He also noted that the Government will continue discussions with the United States to secure further tariff relief and expand market access for energy and non-energy exports.

(Sources: Ministry of Foreign & CARICOM Affairs and CNC3)

• President of Guyana, Dr Irfaan Ali, has set a firm deadline for the monetisation of Guyana’s gas reserves, declaring that the country must make a definitive decision before 2030. Speaking during his feature address at the Berbice Development Summit, the President said that the issue of how Guyana will utilise its natural-gas resources cannot be delayed or passed on to another administration.
•  Dr Ali noted that the government is currently assessing several models for gas use and export, with the aim of maximising national benefits, while balancing sustainability, job creation and industrial transformation. According to the President, the government’s objective is to ensure that ‘every molecule of gas’ contributes to the country’s economic diversification. The ongoing infrastructural developments, including pipelines, industrial parks and downstream facilities, will serve as the backbone of its long-term plan.
• President Ali underscored that while oil has dominated early production, natural gas represents a crucial phase in Guyana’s industrial transformation, one that will determine the pace and depth of economic diversification.
• Fitch BMI concurs, noting that Guyana’s utilisation of gas reserves through a Gas-To-Energy project and strengthening local content rules for oil and gas firms will support growth in the non-oil economy. The commissioning will reduce fuel imports and electricity costs (by 50%). Furthermore, lower electricity tariffs and more reliable power will support construction, logistics, food processing and other power-intensive services. The government has alluded to potential development of downstream hydrocarbon industries, including fertiliser, petrochemicals and refined fuels production. There is also potential for Guyana to develop bauxite mining to feed into new, energy-intensive aluminium production in the 2030s.
• That said, Guyana's economy is set to expand by 9.1% in real terms in 2025 on the back of robust oil production, one of the fastest rates globally, though well below the 43.6% growth rate in 2024. Real GDP growth is set to accelerate to 13.5% in 2026 as the majority of the benefit from the Yellowtail project commencement will accrue in 2026. Over the longer term, utilisation of natural gas production to power Gas to Energy projects could boost economic activity in the coming years.

(Sources: Guyana Chronicle and BMI- A Fitch Solutions Company)

• Japan's economy shrank by 1.8% in the three months through September, as a drop in exports in the face of U.S. tariffs resulted in the first contraction in six quarters, government data showed on Monday.
• Exports constituted the main drag as the impact of higher U.S. tariffs intensified. Automakers saw shipment volume plunge, reversing earlier front-loaded exports ahead of tariff hikes, though they mostly absorbed tariffs by cutting prices.
• Still, as the overall contraction was not as acute as expected, it likely represents a temporary setback rather than the start of a recession, economists said.
• Economists generally viewed this quarter's GDP figures as having a marginal impact on the Bank of Japan's thinking when next deciding interest rates versus factors such as inflation. However, an economist close to Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi gave the data more weight.
• Given the contraction, it "would be misguided for the BOJ to decide to raise interest rates" in December, Credit Agricole chief Japan economist Takuji Aida, who is on Takaichi's flagship panel tasked with laying out the country's growth strategy, said in a report to clients.
• Housing investment also weighed on growth as tighter energy-efficiency regulations introduced in April slowed commitments.
• The weak GDP data comes as Takaichi's government compiles a stimulus package to help households manage rising living costs.
• Advisers to Takaichi have cited a likely sharp GDP contraction as a reason for aggressive stimulus measures. Finance Minister Satsuki Katayama told reporters on Sunday that the proposed economic stimulus would exceed 17 trillion yen ($109.94 billion), media reported.

(Source: Reuters)

• As U.S. agencies on Friday began announcing plans for releasing economic data delayed by the government shutdown, a trio of U.S. central bankers reiterated their concerns about inflation, while the Fed's most dovish policymaker said economic data in hand argued for another rate cut.
• In the meantime, financial markets placed their bets. Late Friday, short-term interest-rate futures, the best real-time indication of trader sentiment on Fed policy, reflected a 60.0% chance that the central bank will not follow its back-to-back rate cuts in September and October with another one in December.
• Market-based odds on that same 60.0% probability were circulating about 24 hours earlier, and before that had been heavily in favour of a rate cut for several weeks since the Fed's October 29 decision. The duelling policymaker views and shifting market bets underscore how hotly contested the decision at the Fed's December 9-10 meeting may be.
• Additionally, traders' views could just as easily reverse next week when government statistics agencies begin publishing economic data for the first time in a month and a half, and more Fed policymakers, including the influential and dovish Fed Governor Christopher Waller, weigh in with their perspectives.
• Kansas City’s Schmid, Dallas’ Logan, and Cleveland’s Hammack reiterated resistance to another rate cut in December, citing insufficient evidence of faster-than-expected disinflation, only gradual labour-market cooling, and risks to the Fed’s 2% credibility, while Governor Miran argued for further easing (and had even pushed for a bigger cut in October). Chair Powell added that policy must proceed cautiously amid limited data visibility from the government shutdown, stressing that a December cut is far from assured, a view traders appeared to reflect by week’s end.

(Source: Reuters)

• Wigton Energy Ltd. (WIG) posted a 33.8% contraction in its earnings for the quarter ended September 30, 2025 (Q2 2025), despite stronger topline performance.
• Revenue rose 34.6% to J$509.37Mn, driven by higher production levels, as output in July 2024 had been disrupted by Hurricane Beryl, creating a favourable year-over-year comparison. Cost of Sales grew marginally (+4.0%) to J$271.43Mn. allowing the gross profit margin to widen to 53.3%, up from 39.5% in Q2 2024, as revenue growth far outpaced cost increases.
• However, Other income (consisting of interest and extraordinary income) fell sharply to J$141.40Mn, down from J$325.42Mn for Q2 2024, reflecting the absence of one-off insurance proceeds due to Hurricane Beryl and lower interest income. Combined with a 5.9% rise in administrative expenses, this pushed operating profit down 25.8%. A 15.9% reduction in finance costs helped moderate the decline, but the operating margin still fell to 41.1% from 75.2%.
• As a result, net earnings contracted despite lower finance expenses and stronger topline performance, as prior-year insurance proceeds and higher operating costs weighed on the quarterly performance.
• That said, for the six-month period, earnings grew 14.4%, supported by a strong Q1 (+56.3%), partially offsetting the weaker Q2 outturn.
• Average plant availability improved to 88.5% for 6M 2025 from 74.9% for 6M period in 2024, which was previously impacted by Hurricane Beryl.
• Following Hurricane Melissa, an assessment at the Rose Hill, Manchester wind farm showed limited damage at Phase I and no physical damage at Phases II and III. Repairs at Phase I are underway. However, this was a stark contrast to the aftereffects of Hurricane Beryl, where damage to its Rose Hill turbines were described as being “significant”. Wigton is likely to receive payout from its insurers to finance repairs.
• While Wigton’s internal restoration activities are advancing, the affected transmission lines that connect the wind farm to the national grid must first be inspected and re-energized by the Jamaica Public Service Company Limited (JPS) before the wind turbines can be fully tested and returned to service. Therefore, it is likely that plant availability will decline in the short term.
• Wigton continues to pursue growth in renewable energy and clean technology, focusing on utility-scale generation, battery storage, and the commercial & industrial segment. The company is advancing two major solar projects totalling 70.53 MW—the largest in Jamaica. The 49.83 MW project is well advanced, as the company has secured key regulatory approvals and progressed PPA negotiations, land arrangements, EPC terms, and financing (a mix of debt and equity). Wigton is also progressing the 20.7 MW repowering project to its Phase I wind facility in Rose Hall, both central to its diversification and long-term earnings strategy.
• For Friday’s close, WIG’s stock price closed at J$1.23, an 11.5% year-to-date decline. At this current price, the company’s P/E is 36.2x, which is above the Main Market Energy, Industries and Materials Sector average of 14.9x.

(Sources: JIS, NCBCM Research)

• Moody’s RMS Event Response estimates private market insured losses from Hurricane Melissa to be between US$3.0Bn and US$5.0Bn, with a best estimate of US$3.5Bn. This estimate represents insured losses associated primarily with wind impacts in Jamaica, the island hardest hit by the Category 5 hurricane. Insured losses for other impacted Caribbean islands, including the Bahamas, Haiti, and the Turks and Caicos Islands, are expected to be minimal.
• Economic losses in Jamaica from the event could potentially exceed the island’s GDP, which was approximately US$20.0Bn in 2024. This loss estimate reflects property damage and business interruption to residential, commercial, industrial, and automobile lines of business, considers post-event loss amplification (PLA), including potential super-cat impacts due to widespread infrastructure damage to roads, power networks, etc., as well as non-modeled losses from extended business interruption and precipitation-induced flooding.
• The estimate does not include losses for any government or sovereign protection programs covering Jamaica (Caribbean Catastrophe Risk Insurance Facility, International Bank for Reconstruction and Development cat bond, and National Disaster policies) resulting from this event, which include both traditional (re)insurance and insurance-linked securities.
• Insurance penetration in Jamaica varies by line of business. Hotels stand out with near-total coverage and strong limits, reflecting their importance to the island’s tourism-driven economy. While take-up rates for other commercial lines are also high, as most businesses have some insurance coverage, there could be significant underinsurance due to inadequate limits.
• In contrast, personal lines take-up is quite uneven, with very low coverage for single-family dwellings, particularly outside affluent neighbourhoods in urban areas. Due to the protection gap, we expect many households and businesses to be vulnerable to severe financial and social disruption from Melissa’s impacts.

(Source: Moody’s Investors Service)