• Fitch Solutions anticipates that Jamaica’s fiscal trajectory will remain sustainable in FY2025/26 (FY: April–March) and beyond. For FY2025/26, the agency anticipates that total revenues and expenditures will equal 32.7% of GDP, resulting in a virtually balanced budget.
• A nearly balanced budget in FY2026/27 is also anticipated, with total revenue and expenditure at 31.2% and 31.7% of GDP. Furthermore, the primary balance (expenditures less interest payments) is set to come in at a healthy 5.3% of GDP for FY2025/2026 and 3.5% for FY2026/2027.
• Provisional estimates of government expenditure and revenue for the first three months of FY2025/2026 support this near-term view. Total expenditure for April–June 2025 was 6.5% less than the budgeted amount for this period, while total revenue aligned with the government’s budget estimates, with J$232.2Bn in total revenue collected.
• While prevailing wisdom would suggest an uptick in government outlays in the months prior to a high-stakes general election, scheduled for September 3, the most recent central government operations data does not show such a trend. Instead, data show continued fiscal restraint, which will likely continue over the near and longer terms, due to broad political commitment to fiscal responsibility, underpinning our upbeat outlook for Jamaica’s public finances.
• Overall, Jamaica’s sustainable fiscal path is supported by strong institutional and policy frameworks. Jamaica’s Fiscal Responsibility Law, established in 2010 and amended in 2014 following successful debt reduction efforts, has shaped the country’s fiscal policy and enabled successful debt reduction since its inception.
• Jamaica has also reduced its overall debt-to-GDP ratio over the past 10 years, from 121.0% of GDP to under 70% by 2024. Furthermore, the debt-to-GDP ratio will likely meet the 60% of GDP goal by 2027, in line with projections from the IMF and Jamaica’s Independent Fiscal Commission (IFC).

(Source: BMI, a Fitch Solutions Company)

• The Dominican Government, through the Ministry of Energy and Mines (MEM), signed a production-sharing contract with the Global Mining consortium for the exploration and eventual production of hydrocarbons in the Cibao Basin, a strategic step toward the country’s energy diversification and security.
• The contract was signed by the Minister of Energy and Mines, Joel Santos, and Félix Manuel Santana Reyes, the consortium’s representative, and established an eleven-year concession for the exploration and exploitation phases of both blocks.
• With this signing, the Ministry of Energy and Mines strengthens its strategy to continue consolidating a national oil and gas exploration and production industry, while preparing to launch the Second Oil Round in 2026, with new available areas that will expand investment opportunities and strengthen the Dominican Republic’s energy security.
• Minister Santos expressed optimism about this new project, as it represents a historic opportunity to confirm the country’s energy potential and lay the foundations for greater energy independence and security. The official explained that, in terms of benefits, the State will receive a minimum share of 43% of total oil revenue, along with the creation of direct and indirect jobs, technical training programs for youth, and community development initiatives.
• He also specified that the contract includes strict provisions for environmental protection and industrial safety, ensuring that activities are carried out in compliance with international sustainability standards. “Respect for the environment and sustainable development are fundamental pillars of our policy. The Global Min consortium will embrace this commitment at every stage of the project,” Santos added.

(Source: Dominican Today)

• Brazil's economic growth is estimated to have tapered off in the second quarter due to a pullback in farm output and softer industrial production, a Reuters poll of economists showed. This would mark the beginning of a widely-expected slowdown for Latin America's No. 1 economy as high local interest rates hamper Brazilian companies' access to credit.
• The economy likely expanded by 0.3% in the April-June quarter, well below the strong 1.4% rate of the first three months of 2025, according to the median estimate of 19 economists polled August 27-September 1. In annual terms, gross domestic product is seen at 2.2% compared to a 2.9% rise in the first quarter. GDP data are scheduled for release on Tuesday.
• Agricultural output likely contracted in the second quarter after a surge at the start of the year, an expected reversal in Brazil's farming cycle following the usual peak season of the sector. Manufacturing also likely remained weak, offsetting a better performance in other components of the country's industrial sector like oil production, while services probably contributed modestly.
• These trends were outlined in the central bank's monthly leading indicator, which already accounted for the impact of its restrictive monetary policy to cool down inflation. A major downturn could be avoided if the government notches up public spending more than expected, as it did in some past years.

(Source: Reuters)

• The Trump administration is pressing ahead with trade negotiations despite a U.S. appeals court ruling that most of President Trump’s tariffs are illegal. U.S. Trade Representative Jamieson Greer said discussions with partners remain active, noting that “people are moving forward with their deals, regardless of what this court may say in the interim.”
• The U.S. Court of Appeals for the Federal Circuit ruled 7-4 on Friday that Congress did not grant the president explicit authority to impose reciprocal tariffs under national emergency powers. The decision covers levies announced earlier this year against China, Canada, and Mexico, but allows them to remain in effect until October 14 while appeals proceed. Trump has vowed to escalate the case to the Supreme Court, where his advisers expect a favourable outcome given the Court’s conservative majority.
• Trade experts said the administration had anticipated the ruling and was preparing fallback options, including use of Section 338 of a 1930 trade law that permits duties of up to 50% against countries discriminating against U.S. commerce. Officials emphasised that tariff policy remains a central pillar of Trump’s foreign and economic strategy, despite heightened uncertainty and market volatility.
• Fellow Republican U.S. Senator James Lankford said companies he has talked to want the issue settled, as ongoing legal battles are destabilising investment and supply chain planning.

(Source: Reuters)

• Japanese Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba and Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi agreed to deepen economic and security cooperation during talks in Tokyo on Friday, as India confronts new U.S. tariffs and Japan seeks to counter China’s growing influence.
• Both leaders pledged to boost defence cooperation in the Indo-Pacific over the next decade, strengthen supply chains and investment, and expand collaboration in AI, space, high-speed rail and other technologies. They also agreed to widen skilled worker exchanges. Japan said it was targeting 10 Tn yen ($67.9Bn) of private-sector investment in India.
• Both sides emphasised their shared interest in a free and open Indo-Pacific, noting common concerns around maritime security, terrorism, and cyber threats. The partnership extends to skilled worker exchanges and expands trade and investment flows. Modi highlighted the alignment with his “Make in India” strategy, aimed at bolstering domestic industry as U.S. tariffs raise pressure on exports.
• The U.S. recently increased import levies on Indian goods to as high as 50%, including a 25% tariff linked to India’s purchases of Russian oil. The moves complicate India’s trade outlook even as it seeks closer ties with strategic partners. Modi’s visit to Japan comes ahead of his attendance at the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation summit in China, where he is set to meet President Xi Jinping and Vladimir Putin.

(Source: Reuters)

• Minister of Industry, Investment and Commerce, Hon. Aubyn Hill, has reaffirmed that Jamaica remains a top destination for doing business, citing expanded government support for investors, entrepreneurs, and Micro, Small and Medium-sized Enterprises (MSMEs).
• Since July 2025, at least 2,000 MSMEs and 2,100 individual entrepreneurs have been engaged through the Ministry’s roadshows held across eight parishes, which connect entrepreneurs with various portfolio agencies.
• Minister Hill also emphasised the importance of MSMEs participating in exports. “We have to export… and one of the things that we’re doing with MSMEs as we go out [is], the moment they get established at the Company’s Office [of Jamaica] we say [to them], ‘when are you going to start exporting? Where’s your market?’”
• Minister Hill also emphasised Jamaica’s macroeconomic appeal. “You go and look around CARICOM, go and look across the wider Central America and see how many countries you can find that don’t have some kind of currency control. Not Jamaica. That’s why investors want to come to Jamaica.”
• He also cited key economic indicators, including an unemployment rate of 3.3%, inflation holding steady at 3.3%, a debt-to-GDP ratio of 68.7% (down from 147%), and GDP growth of 1.4% in Q2 2025.

(Source: JIS)

• Speaking at the Bank of Jamaica’s (BOJ’s) quarterly press conference, Governor Richard Byles said the full rollout of Jamaica’s central bank digital currency (CBDC), branded JAM-DEX, will alleviate many of the problems people experience at automated teller machines (ATMs). He explained that JAM-DEX offers a safe, efficient, and convenient way to pay for goods and services without the need for cash.
• JAM-DEX was first introduced in 2021 and rolled out to the Jamaican public on a phased basis in 2022. However, it is still not widely utilised as a form of payment across the country.
• Governor Byles noted that retrofitting point-of-sale (POS) machines at consumer-facing establishments to accept the CBDC will facilitate a broader rollout. “The breakthrough with JAM-DEX will happen when we get the POS machines converted… that’s when we will see a much more rapid spread of use. If… you have a wallet full of JAM-DEX, unless you can spend it at places that use a POS machine, you have to resort to cash or you have to use your credit and debit card,” he said.
• He added, “So it’s critical, and the commercial banks know the POS conversion is what is holding up the effective and massive rollout of JAM-DEX. A lot of the problems that people are experiencing at ATMs to get cash can be addressed over the years when we get JAM-DEX rolled out.”
• Meanwhile, BOJ Deputy Governor, Financial Markets and Payments Systems, Natalie Haynes, reported a 30% increase in the volume of JAM-DEX type peer-to-peer (P2P) transactions since the start of 2025.
• Haynes further noted that retrofitting point-of-sale (POS) machines, together with onboarding additional digital wallet providers, is essential to advancing the rollout of JAM-DEX. “We are still working on getting the point-of-sale machines for the larger merchants retrofitted… we are doing that in collaboration with the banks … Also, we are] waiting on other wallet providers to be onboarded. Two are onboarded and are distributing JAM-DEX, and we expect two more before year end,” she informed.

(Source: JIS)

• Brazil's central bank chief Gabriel Galipolo emphasised on Wednesday, August 27, 2025, the need to keep interest rates at a restrictive level, citing a slow convergence of inflation expectations toward the official target. Policymakers have consistently signalled that the benchmark Selic rate, currently at 15%, should remain unchanged for an extended period.
• Expectations and projections from both the central bank and the market are still converging slowly toward the inflation target, requiring a more restrictive monetary policy, Galipolo noted. His remarks came after a weekly central bank survey of economists showed a first decline in inflation expectations for 2027, which had been stuck for six months.
• Inflation expectations for this year and next had already been falling in recent weeks, helped by a stronger local currency amid a global weakening of the U.S. dollar. Notwithstanding, market forecasts remain well above the official 3% target, standing at 4.86% for this year, 4.33% for next year and 3.97% in 2027.
• The central bank last month held its benchmark Selic rate steady after a 450bps tightening cycle kicked off in September. Notably, even with interest rates at 15%, Brazil's labour market continues to show strong resilience, which in some cases is driving stronger demand.

(Source: Reuters)

• The Antigua and Barbuda Tourism Authority (ABTA) is celebrating a robust period of growth in the destination’s tourism sector, with promising prospects for the coming months. Colin C James, CEO of ABTA, provided an update on the country’s performance and plans, highlighting the impressive upward trend in visitor arrivals.
• Tourism, the country’s primary source of revenue, remains vital to its economic survival. Arrivals for the first half of 2025 rose 4% compared to the previous year, with June 2025 alone seeing over 25,500 visitors, primarily from the United States, Latin America, and regional markets. Notably, Latin American arrivals surged by nearly 195%, signalling a positive trajectory for the destination.
• A key focus has been on expanding air connectivity. The airline sector has reported a significant increase in capacity, with full flights into Antigua during peak periods and new airline partnerships coming online. It is expected that the return of the Condor Airline from Germany, as well as increased capacity from existing partners, will bolster winter tourism numbers.
• The Tourism Authority has also intensified efforts to attract regional visitors, particularly from Trinidad, Barbados, and Canada. Plans are also underway to grow Antigua’s cruise industry, with an emphasis on homeporting initiatives to establish Antigua as a premier port of call and homeport destination.
• Looking ahead to the end of the year, James expressed optimism that the upcoming tourism peaks and key industry events will provide critical opportunities to build industry relationships, showcase Antigua’s offerings, and secure future bookings.

(Source: CariCRIS)

• The U.S. economy grew faster than initially thought in the second quarter, in part driven by business investment in intellectual property such as artificial intelligence (AI), but tariffs on imports continued to cloud the picture.
• The upgrade to the gross domestic product (GDP) reported by the Commerce Department on Thursday also reflected upward revisions to consumer spending as well as business investment in equipment. That resulted in a measure of underlying domestic demand also being revised higher.
• GDP increased at a 3.3% annualised rate last quarter, the Commerce Department's Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) said in its second estimate. The economy was initially reported to have grown at a 3.0% pace in the second quarter. Economists polled by Reuters had expected GDP growth would be raised to a 3.1% rate.
• The GDP revision reflected upgrades to business spending on intellectual property products, now estimated to have expanded at a 12.8% rate, double the initially estimated 6.4% pace and the fastest in four years. Growth in business investment in equipment was revised up to a 7.4% pace from the 4.8% rate estimated last month. Growth in consumer spending, the economy's main engine, was raised to a 1.6% rate from the previously reported 1.4% pace.
• Economists expect a lacklustre second half, which would limit economic growth to about 1.5% for the full year. That reading would be down from 2.8% in 2024.

(Source: Reuters)