• Real GDP growth in Latin America will slow from 2.1% in 2023 to 1.5% in 2024, weighed down by high real interest rates and a somewhat weaker external backdrop.
• The slowdown will be driven primarily by Brazil and Mexico, while Chile, Colombia, and Peru will each see a notable growth recovery compared to 2023.
• Most crucially, the slowdown from Brazil (2.9% growth in 2023 to 1.6% in 2024) and Mexico (3.1% to 2.5%) will drag down overall regional growth. Those two markets account for roughly 60% of regional GDP, with their performance often dictating the overall growth of Latin America.
• Among those that will see faster growth are three of the region’s larger markets: Chile (0.1% in 2023 to 2.0% in 2024), Colombia (0.6% in 2023 to 1.3% in 2024) and Peru (-0.6% in 2023 to 1.9% in 2024). Venezuela and Uruguay will also see an acceleration in growth, benefiting from the temporary removal of US sanctions and an agricultural recovery, respectively.
• Risks to the regional growth forecast lie to the upside, given Fitch’s recent upward revision of the US growth projection and solid high-frequency data out of Brazil.

 (Source: Fitch Solutions)

• U.S. retail sales rebounded less than expected in February, suggesting a slowdown in consumer spending in the first quarter amid rising inflation and high borrowing costs.
• This, however, is unlikely to spur the Federal Reserve to start cutting interest rates before June, as other data on Thursday showed a larger-than-expected increase in producer prices last month.
• The labour market also remains fairly tight. Fewer Americans applied for unemployment benefits last week and annual revisions to the weekly claims data showed laid-off workers were quickly finding new work and not spending as long a period on jobless benefits as had been previously thought.
• According to the Commerce Department’s Census Bureau, Retail sales rose 0.6% last month, and data for January was revised lower to show sales tumbling 1.1% instead of the previously reported 0.8%. Retail sales in December were also downgraded.
• In February, retail sales exhibited mixed trends, with a slight decrease in online sales and declines in various sectors such as clothing, health, personal care, and furniture stores. However, there was a notable rebound of 0.4% in food services and drinking places, suggesting some recovery in consumer spending in certain areas.
• Economists attribute these shifts to households prioritising essentials over discretionary spending, influenced by factors like high prices for food and gasoline. Despite some fluctuations, core retail sales remained stable, indicating consistent consumer spending patterns that align closely with GDP trends.
• However, on a year-over-year basis, retail sales overshot economists’ projections for February with a 1.5% increase versus a 0.8% projection. Sales were boosted by a 1.6% rebound in receipts at motor vehicles and parts dealers. Sales at gasoline stations increased 0.9%, reflecting higher prices at the pump. Receipts at electronics and appliance outlets surged 1.5%. Conversely, building material and garden equipment store sales rebounded by 2.2%.

(Source: Reuters)

• The recent findings from the Bank of England indicate that within the private credit market, defaults have remained relatively low compared to lending to riskier borrowers. S&P Global anticipates that defaults among European speculative borrowers may escalate to 3.75% by June, yet the expected surge in corporate restructurings hasn't materialized, surprising many in the industry.
• Peter Marshall, co-head of European restructuring at investment bank Houlihan Lokey, notes the absence of widespread corporate restructurings, sparking curiosity within the market. This phenomenon is attributed to the flexibility in lending and the utilization of intricate refinancing structures by private credit funds, as reported by multiple sources to Reuters.
• Deloitte's analysis reveals that a significant portion of European private debt deals involve only one lender, granting them considerable control over the terms and interest rates. Some funds, like those represented by Patrick Marshall of Federated Hermes, are adjusting loan terms such as covenant headroom to defer stress, albeit potentially resulting in lower recoveries.
• Collaborative efforts between private credit funds and company owners are also highlighted as a strategy to circumvent losses. Meanwhile, the prevalence of payment-in-kind facilities (PIKs) and debt refinancing, as observed by credit intelligence provider Reorg and Deloitte respectively, underscores the creative measures taken to manage debt obligations.
• The integration of private debt funds into the banking ecosystem is increasingly apparent; with practices like leverage deployment mirroring those in the U.S. Ares Management's substantial fundraising further accentuates the growing investable capital in the private credit sphere, albeit accompanied by potential risks during market downturns.
• In light of these developments, there are discussions about the necessity of further regulation to ensure stability within the private credit market.

(Source: Reuters)

• Jamaican Teas Limited announced that it entered into an agreement on 12 Mar 2024 to sell its Bell Road tea factory to a third party purchaser.  
• Completion of the sale will take place in April 2024 and Jamaican Teas will continue to occupy the premises until August 2024, by which date its tea packing operations will relocate to the Group’s premises in Temple Hall, St. Andrew. The Temple Hall property comprises some 60,000 square feet of factory buildings on about three acres of land.
• The factory expansion will allow the company to focus even more on exports, while concurrently addressing demand in its home market. With this expansion, the company expects its distributors to deepen their market penetration by expanding the customer base and the number of locations, especially in the United States.
• JAMT’s stock price has decreased by 5.9% since the start of the calendar year, closing Wednesday’s trading session at $2.37. At this price, the stock currently trades at a P/E of 21.55x earnings, which is roughly in line with the Junior Market Manufacturing Sector Average of 21.57x.

(Sources: JSE and NCBCM Research)

• Effective April 2024, the personal income tax threshold will move from $1.5Mn to $1.7Mn. This was announced by Minister of Finance and the Public Service, Dr. the Hon. Nigel Clarke, while opening the 2024/25 Budget Debate in the House of Representatives on Tuesday (March 12). Dr. Clarke said the measure will cost approximately $9Bn.
• He also announced a reverse tax credit for all Jamaicans who earn under $3Mn. “The reverse tax credit means for every registered taxpayer who earns under $3Mn, the Government will provide a reverse tax credit of $20,000.
• “We have a total of 570,000 Jamaicans, today, who contribute to the Jamaican society through statutory deductions, and some through personal income tax who will benefit from this measure,” Dr. Clarke told the House. The cost of this programme will be $11.4Bn.
• This increase in the tax threshold should support growth in real disposable incomes, and fuel consumer demand which augurs well for corporate revenues and profits.

(Sources: and NCBCM Research)

• Guyana’s justice sector is undergoing significant transformation with the introduction of alternative dispute resolution methods and streamlined plea bargaining, aiming for greater efficiency and adaptability.
• Attorney-General and Minister of Legal Affairs, Mohabir Anil Nandlall, S.C., said several new pieces of legislation have been presented in the National Assembly to achieve this. Speaking at the opening ceremony of the Restorative Justice Practitioners Training, at the Police Officers’ Mess Annex in Georgetown, AG Nandlall highlighted the massive benefits that these approaches will have on citizens and businesses.
• Last year, the government tabled the Arbitration Bill and the Criminal Procedure (Plea Discussion, Plea Agreement, Plea Assistance Agreement) Bill of 2023, taking another tangible step in providing faster and more amicable alternatives to traditional litigation.
• Arbitration allows disputing parties to reach an agreement with the help of neutral arbitrators, potentially saving time and money. The bill will allow for top-class arbitrators and companies offering arbitral services to set up in Guyana.
• Meanwhile, the revamped Criminal Procedure Bill is designed to tackle the backlog of cases currently straining the system. It will allow for plea agreements to be made between defendants and state prosecutors before a guilty verdict, expediting resolutions and freeing up court resources for more serious cases.
• Having been scrutinized for its lacklustre judicial system in the past, these reforms demonstrate Guyana’s commitment to streamlining easier access to resolution disputes; aiming at reducing the level of scepticism and apprehensions that international investors may have.
• Over time, this could result in not only greater efficiency but also greater foreign direct investments from smaller companies if they are of the belief that in the event of a local dispute, matters can be resolved quickly and efficiently.

 (Source: Guyana Chronicle)

• Тhе Саrіbbеаn Соmmunіtу (САRІСОМ) іѕ mаkіng ѕtrіdеѕ tоwаrdѕ іtѕ аmbіtіоuѕ gоаl оf rеduсіng fооd іmроrtѕ bу 25% bу 2025, thаnkѕ tо а gеnеrоuѕ соntrіbutіоn frоm thе Nеw Zеаlаnd gоvеrnmеnt аmоuntіng tо UЅ$1.6Mn.
• Тhіѕ іnіtіаtіvе, рrіmаrіlу fосuѕіng оn wоmеn аnd уоuth іn аgrісulturе, wаѕ fоrmаlіsеd thrоugh а Grаnt Fundіng Аgrееmеnt ѕіgnеd bу САRІСОМ Ѕесrеtаrу-Gеnеrаl, Dr Саrlа Ваrnеtt, аnd Nеw Zеаlаnd’ѕ Рlеnіроtеntіаrу Rерrеѕеntаtіvе tо САRІСОМ, Lіndа Сhаrlоttе Те Рunі, іn Gеоrgеtоwn.
• Ассоrdіng tо а САRІСОМ рrеѕѕ rеlеаѕе, thе rеgіоnаl fооd ѕесurіtу рrојесt, titled ‘САRІСОМ ВООЅТ: Wоmеn аnd Yоuth іn Аgrісulturе’, іѕ а tеѕtаmеnt tо Nеw Zеаlаnd’ѕ соmmіtmеnt tо bоlѕtеr dеvеlорmеnt соореrаtion wіth САRІСОМ.
• “Іt іѕ ехресtеd tо ѕее thе uѕе оf рrоtесtеd ѕtruсturеѕ аnd аррrорrіаtе соld ѕtоrаgе unіt tесhnоlоgіеѕ іn wоmеn аnd уоuth-lеd аgrісulturе рrоduсtіоn,” thе САRІСОМ ѕtаtеmеnt ѕаіd. “Тhе gеnеrаl аіm оf thе рrојесt іѕ tо рrоmоtе сlіmаtе ѕmаrt аgrісulturе thrоugh ѕuѕtаіnаblе аgrісulturе рrоduсtіоn.”
• Те Рunі, hіghlіghtеd Nеw Zеаlаnd’ѕ роtеntіаl tо оffеr furthеr ѕuрроrt іn сrіtісаl аrеаѕ lіkе fооd ѕесurіtу, rеnеwаblе еnеrgу, аnd dіѕаѕtеr rіѕk mаnаgеmеnt, аmоng оthеrѕ. Тhіѕ grаnt іѕ а fоllоw-uр tо а nеw Соореrаtіоn аgrееmеnt ѕіgnеd bеtwееn САRІСОМ аnd Nеw Zеаlаnd іn Јunе 2023, mаrkіng а ѕіgnіfісаnt ѕtер tоwаrdѕ rеgіоnаl ѕеlf-rеlіаnсе аnd ѕuѕtаіnаblе Dеvеlорmеnt.

(Source: Breaking Belize News)

• According to a report on Wednesday, corporate dividends globally hit an all-time high of $1.66Tn in 2023, with record payouts by banks making up half of the growth
• On a worldwide basis, 86.0% of listed companies either increased dividends or maintained them, according to the quarterly Janus Henderson Global Dividend Index report, which also forecast that dividend payouts would hit a new record of $1.72Tn this year.
• The total value of corporate dividends rose from $1.57Tn in 2022 with underlying growth - which accounts for currency movements, special dividends, timing changes, and index changes - of 5% from 2022, UK asset manager Janus Henderson said.
• "Corporate cash flow in most sectors remained strong and this provided plenty of firepower for dividends and share buybacks," said Ben Lofthouse, head of global equity income at Janus Henderson. According to LSEG data, earnings growth for the S&P 500 in the fourth quarter of 2023 was expected to come in at 9% year-on-year.
• High interest rates have boosted bank margins and banks paid out a record $220Bn to shareholders in 2023, an underlying rise of 15% from 2022 and continuing a rebound after bank payouts were frozen during the pandemic.
• Any positive impact from higher banking dividends was almost entirely offset by cuts from the mining sector, the report found, as lower commodity prices weighed on mining profits. "Beyond these two sectors (banking and mining), whose impact was unusually large, we saw encouraging growth from industries as varied as vehicles, utilities, software, food, and engineering, demonstrating the importance of a diversified portfolio," the report said.
• Europe (excluding the UK) and Japan were significant contributors to global dividend growth, with Europe accounting for two-fifths of the increase and Japan also playing a major role, albeit hampered by a weak yen.
• Despite flat dividends in emerging markets and a projected slowdown in bank dividend growth, overall corporate dividends are expected to grow by another 5.0% this year to reach $1.72Tn, with strong support for oil dividends and steady progress in defensive sectors like healthcare and consumer goods.  

(Source: Reuters)

• Brent crude oil spot price averaged $83 per barrel in February, up $3/b from January due to uncertainties and increased risk around attacks on commercial ships in the Red Sea and an anticipated extension of voluntary OPEC+ production cuts.
• The OPEC+ voluntary production cuts were extended through the second quarter of 2024, with an additional voluntary production cut from Russia, leading to expectations of tighter global oil supplies in the near term.
• The extension of OPEC+ production cuts is expected to result in a decrease of global oil inventories by 0.9 million barrels per day (b/d) in 2Q24, contrary to the previous forecast of relatively unchanged inventories.
• Brent crude oil price is forecasted to average $88/b in 2Q24, $4/b higher than the previous estimate, remaining relatively flat for the rest of 2024 before experiencing slight downward pressure in 2025 due to increasing inventories when OPEC+ supply cuts expire.
• Global oil demand is projected to grow by 1.4 million b/d in both 2024 and 2025, impacting global inventory levels and oil prices.
• With the incorporation of new OPEC+ voluntary production cuts, global liquid fuels production is expected to increase by 0.4 million b/d in 2024, primarily driven by growth outside of OPEC+, notably in the Americas.
• In 2025, global liquids fuel production is forecasted to increase by 2.0 million b/d, with an increase in OPEC+ crude oil production and production not subject to the OPEC+ agreement.

(Source: EIA)

• Oil prices held steady on Tuesday as concerns over conflict in the Middle East were offset by bearish demand sentiment ahead of monthly reports from oil agencies.
• Hopes of a ceasefire in Israel's war against Hamas have faded, with negotiations deadlocked in Cairo while the conflict threatens to widen as Israel and Lebanon's Hezbollah continue to exchange fire. Though the Gaza conflict has not led to significant oil supply disruptions, Yemen's Iran-aligned Houthis have been attacking ships in the Red Sea and Gulf of Aden since November in a campaign of solidarity with Palestinians.
• Airstrikes attributed to a U.S.-British coalition hit port cities and small towns in western Yemen on Monday. The Houthis said on Tuesday that they had fired missiles at what they described as a U.S. ship in the Red Sea.
• Traders are becoming inured to such attacks, said John Evans at oil broker PVM. "The inventory of oil that might be affected is not lost, it is just delayed - and with the new shipping times being part of the new norm, 'delayed' will eventually not be applicable," he said. "The grind and grind of this war will continue, as will the fall away of its relevance to oil prices," he added.
• The various factors supporting oil prices are being countered, however, by the demand outlook and increasing supply from producers outside the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC). "Bearish demand sentiment and growing non-OPEC supply leave little room for the market to be bullish on oil prices at this time," said Serena Huang, head of APAC analysis at Vortexa.
• The International Energy Agency (IEA) expects oil supply to grow to a record high of about 103.8Mn barrels per day (bpd), almost entirely driven by producers outside OPEC and the wider OPEC+ group of producers. The additional supply is from countries including the United States, Brazil and Guyana.
• As for China, the world's biggest oil buyer, crude imports rose in the first two months of the year compared with the same period of 2023. However, the imports were down from preceding months, continuing a trend of softening purchases. The market is awaiting demand estimates from monthly reports by OPEC, the IEA and the Energy Information Administration, analysts from ANZ said in a note. "While we believe the estimates will be largely unchanged, any upside surprise will ease demand concerns," analyst said.

(Source: Reuters)