• The Bank of Canada reduced its key policy rate to a three-year low of 2.5% on Wednesday, the first cut in six months, and said it would be ready to cut again if risks to the economy increased in the coming months.
• The 25-basis-point cut reflected a weak jobs market and less concern about underlying pressures on inflation, the bank said. It paused its easing campaign in March after reducing rates by a total of 225 basis points in nine months, starting in June last year.
• Bank of Canada Governor Tiff Macklem said the damaging effect of U.S. tariffs meant considerable uncertainty remained. "But with a weaker economy and less upside risk to inflation, Governing Council judged that a reduction in the policy rate was appropriate to better balance the risks going forward," he said in opening remarks to reporters.
• The cut was a unanimous decision of the seven-member Governing Council, Macklem said. The last time the key rate hit 2.50% was in July 2022. The economy initially held up reasonably well in the face of tariffs in some critical sectors. But in the last two months, the job market has slumped, losing more than 100,000 positions. The unemployment rate is at a nine-year high, excluding the COVID-19 pandemic years.
• The bank's next rate announcement is on October 29, followed by another one in December. While economists are widely expecting another rate cut before the end of the year, money markets are not factoring in more easing in 2025.

(Source: Reuters)

• Weighed down by a falloff in earnings and higher operating expenses, Marketing & Advertising Agency, The Limners and Bards Limited (LAB) posted lower earnings attributable to shareholders for the three months ended July 31, 2025 (Q3 2025),
• Total revenues fell 13.0% year over year (YoY) to J$267.14Mn. The lower revenue outturn was accompanied by an 18.6% YoY decline in direct costs to J$165.38Mn. With direct costs contracting at a faster pace than revenues, gross profit margin improved to 38.1% in Q3 2025, up 4.2 percentage points from 33.9% in Q3 2024.
• However, total operating expenses rose by 10.5% during the quarter, driven by higher Administrative (+9.4%) and Selling & Distribution (+289.7%) costs. This pressured profitability, with operating profit falling 25.3% YoY to J$22.33Mn. Ultimately, net profit declined 36.5% to J$21.69 million, down from J$34.13 million in the prior-year quarter.
• The Q3 earnings performance, along with weak earnings from the start of the financial year, contributed to the company’s nine-month results (9M 2025), plummeting 49.4% to J$42.3 million year over year. Management attributed the weaker showing primarily to elevated operating costs tied to strategic hires in business development, content creation, and client service, as well as facility upgrades. These investments, while dampening short-term earnings, are expected to bolster long-term growth potential.
• Looking ahead, management is aiming to stabilise short-term performance while laying the groundwork for sustainable growth. Its strategy is focused on diversifying beyond traditional advertising into digital-first services, influencer and user-generated content solutions, and content ownership through its “Five in 25” film slate. The company also noted growing traction in overseas markets, which now contribute 9% of total revenues. Meanwhile, it is seeking to contain operating costs through smarter resourcing, while protecting growth-focused investments, and embedding technology and flexible talent models to enhance efficiency, speed turnaround times, and strengthen competitiveness.
• LAB’s stock price has declined by 29.6% year-to-date, closing at $0.98 as of Tuesday. At this price, the stock is trading at a P/E ratio of 25.8x, which is above the Junior Market Sector average of 22.1x.

(Sources: The LAB Ltd. Unaudited Earnings Release & NCBCM Research)

• Lumber Depot Limited (LUMBER) reported net profit of J$37.93Mn, for the first quarter ended July 31, 2025 (Q1 2025), reflecting a 16.1% year-over-year (YoY) decline. This was primarily due to the introduction of an income tax charge following the company’s transition from the JSE Junior Market tax exemption regime.
• Revenues grew 3.9% YoY to close at J$401.54Mn, driven by steady demand in its Papine hardware operations. However, sales were skewed toward basic construction commodities and accompanied by continued price competitiveness, which tempered revenue growth.
• Direct expenses also rose by 6.1%, outpacing revenue growth. As a result, gross profit slipped 3.1% to J$89.23 million, while gross profit margin declined by 16 basis points to 22.2%.
• That said, operating expenses were contained (-4.9%), allowing the company to deliver an operating profit of J$44.23Mn, which was relatively flat compared to Q1 2024 J$44.68Mn.
• However, with the expiration of its five-year 100% tax remission in December 2024, the company has income tax expense, which it did not incur in the prior year. Consequently, LAB incurred J$5.42Mn in income tax during the quarter. This new tax charge weighed on the bottom line and drove the 16.1% YoY decline in net profit.
• Management noted that the company continues to maintain a strong market presence in Papine, supported by its owned facility and high community traffic. It is also actively exploring expansion opportunities, including investment in adjacent properties to broaden its footprint. If successful, it would allow the company to expand its operations to better serve its market, with the potential for improved earnings.
• Lumber’s stock price increased by 1.1% year-to-date, closing at $2.76 on September 16th.

(Sources: Lumber Depot Ltd. Unaudited Earnings Release & NCBCM Research)

• Trinidad and Tobago's (T&T) energy sector could face growing challenges in the coming years as the global liquefied natural gas (LNG) market heads toward oversupply, the Energy Chamber of T&T has warned. The warning comes in the wake of recent statements by TotalEnergies CEO Patrick Pouyanné.
• While demand for natural gas is projected to rise by more than 20% by 2050 compared with 2024, Pouyanné cautioned that the rapid expansion of LNG capacity, particularly in the US, Qatar, and Canada, could push global prices down. 'There is a point where we'll face some oversupply,' Pouyanné said, highlighting the potential challenges for producers even as lower prices benefit consumers. Pouyanné also noted that lower LNG prices could make the fuel competitive with the price of coal in key growth markets, including China, potentially triggering a shift from coal and diesel to natural gas. This transition could establish a foundational long-term demand base, supporting future supply cycles.
• The Energy Chamber said the potential future decline in LNG prices raises key considerations for a country like T&T, where short-term prices of energy commodities have a direct relation to the revenue earned by the government through taxes and other revenue. 'LNG is Trinidad and Tobago's major export and source of foreign exchange. Since the Russian invasion of Ukraine and Europe's moves to stop imports of Russian pipeline gas, LNG prices in both Europe and Asia have been at historically high levels. European and East Asian LNG import prices are currently over US$11.00 per mmsf compared to the US Henry Hub benchmark price of under US$3,' it stated.
• The renegotiated Atlantic marketing arrangements mean that Trinidad & Tobago's wellhead gas prices reflect these high Asian and European LNG prices; however, future LNG price decreases could put further strain on government revenue and foreign exchange earnings. This potential for declining LNG prices highlights the importance of a national policy where there is a range of different export routes for natural gas, rather than relying solely on LNG.
• 'Maintaining a portfolio of different routes to monetise gas is an important strategic national policy consideration, underlining the importance of ensuring that there is a diversity of downstream gas processing facilities in the country, including petrochemicals such as methanol and ammonia. This means that there is a broader portfolio of export commodities and potentially provides some greater stability in export earnings and government revenue,' the Energy Chamber stated.

(Source: Trinidad Express Newspapers)

• U.S. retail sales rose more than expected in August as consumers purchased a range of goods and dined out, though a weakening labour market and rising prices linked to tariffs pose downside risks to sustained spending.
• Retail sales climbed 0.6% last month after an upwardly revised 0.6% gain in July, according to the U.S. Department of Commerce. Economists polled by Reuters had forecast a 0.2% rise following a previously reported 0.5% July increase. Sales were up 5.0% year-over-year. Adjusted for inflation, economists estimated monthly sales rose only 0.2%.
• The Trump administration had argued tariffs would be absorbed by exporting countries, but data show otherwise, with signs pointing to faster inflation ahead. A separate report from the U.S. Bureau of Labour Statistics showed import prices rose for a second consecutive month in August, driven by higher costs for consumer goods, capital goods, and motor vehicles.
• “The lack of any substantial decline in import prices given the surge in the effective tariff rate to roughly 15–16% suggests that those additional costs are being borne nearly entirely by U.S. businesses and consumers,” said Michael Hanson, an economist at J.P. Morgan.
• Meanwhile, the labour market continues to struggle, marked by meagre job gains and rising unemployment as companies hold off on hiring amid an uncertain economic outlook, posing a risk to consumer spending.
• Still, the third straight month of solid sales gains is unlikely to stop the Federal Reserve from cutting interest rates on Wednesday, given widening cracks in the labour market. It may, however, temper the case for more aggressive cuts, economists said.
• The U.S. central bank is expected to deliver a quarter-point rate cut on Wednesday to support the labour market. The Fed had paused its easing cycle in January amid uncertainty about the inflationary impact of import duties.

(Source: Reuters)

• China's factory output and retail sales reported their weakest growth since last year in August, keeping pressure on Beijing to roll out more stimulus to fend off a sharp slowdown in the world's second-largest economy.
• The disappointing data split economists over whether policymakers would need more near-term fiscal support to hit their annual growth target of "around 5%," with manufacturers awaiting more clarity on a U.S. trade deal and domestic demand curbed by a wobbly job market and property crisis.
• Industrial output grew 5.2% year-on-year, National Bureau of Statistics data showed on Monday, the lowest reading since August 2024 and weaker than a 5.7% rise in July. Retail sales, a gauge of consumption, expanded 3.4% in August, the slowest pace since November 2024, and cooled from a 3.7% rise in the previous month. They missed a forecast gain of 3.9%.
• "The strong start to the year still keeps this year's growth targets within reach, but similar to where we were at this time last year, further stimulus support could be needed to ensure a strong finish to the year," said Lynn Song, chief economist, Greater China at ING.
• "While it is too early to gauge the impact of the consumer loan subsidies coming into effect in September, it is likely that more policy support is still needed, given the broader slowdown across the board. We continue to see a high possibility for another 10bp rate cut and 50bp RRR cut in the coming weeks."
• Authorities are leaning on manufacturers to find new markets to offset U.S. President Donald Trump’s unpredictable trade policy and weak consumer spending. However, a separate data this month showed factory owners have had some success diverting U.S.-bound shipments to Southeast Asia, Africa and Latin America, but the drag from the property crisis continues to offset efforts to steady the economy.
• Zhaopeng Xing, senior China strategist at ANZ, said that while the data showed momentum in the world's second-largest economy was weakening, it was not yet bad enough to trigger a new round of stimulus. "Policies and measures to support service consumption are expected to offset the impact of aggregate demand this month," he said, adding an official crackdown on firms aggressively cutting prices made domestic demand appear worse than it was.

(Source: Reuters)

• For the three months ended July 31, 2025 (Q1 2025/2026), Pharmaceutical Distributor, R.A. Williams Distributors Limited (RAWILL) reported a net loss of J$1.91Mn a sharp deterioration from a net profit of J$24.06Mn in Q1 2024/2025, owing to higher operating expenses.
• Total revenues rose 7.6% YoY to J$417.0Mn, supported by stronger demand and the successful integration of new pharmaceutical product lines. The late-2024 integration of Iracet^[1] and six other new products has positioned R.A. Williams for stronger revenue generation heading into FY2025/26.
• However, this did not translate to the bottom line due to brisk growth in direct and indirect costs, which eroded margins. Direct costs increased by 16.0% to J$228.8Mn, outpacing the growth in revenues. Consequently, the gross profit margin dipped 3.9 percentage points to 45.1%. Operating profit fell sharply to J$15.2Mn from J$48.2Mn in Q1 2024, weighed down by administrative expenses (+17.6%) and selling & distribution costs (+29.4%), both linked to the company’s wider scale of operations.
• That said, finance costs improved during the quarter to J$17.09Mn (down 13.3%) relative to J$19.72Mn in Q1 2024/2025, reflecting lower debt service costs.
• Despite topline growth and lower finance costs, the bottom line was negatively impacted, registering a 107.9% decline.
• Management highlighted portfolio expansion with the onboarding of Ryvis Pharma and new anti-fungal products, alongside continued investments in distribution scale and community initiatives. These are expected to strengthen future revenue growth, though execution will carry near-term cost pressures.
• RAWILL’s stock price declined by 50.7% year-to-date, closing at $0.37 as at Tuesday, September 16, 2025. 

(Sources: RAWILL Ltd & NCBCM Research)

^[1] The first and only generic alternative to the brand Keppra available in Jamaica. Keppra is an epilepsy medicine.

• Despite a slight increase in consumer prices for August, the Point to Point (P2P) inflation rate was 1.2%. This was 2.1% percentage points lower than the 3.3% recorded for July 2024 to July 2025.
• The divisions making the largest contribution to the point-to-point inflation rate were ‘Restaurant and Accommodation Services’ (+5.2%), ‘Education’ (+9.8%), and ‘Information and Communication’ (-5.8%).
• Consumer prices rose 0.3% in August 2025, with the All-Jamaica Consumer Price Index (CPI) increasing from 142.0 in July to 142.4 in August. The monthly increase was driven mainly by a 0.8% rise in the index for the ‘Food and Non-Alcoholic Beverages’ division. Within this division, the index for ‘Food’ rose 0.9%, reflecting higher prices for fresh produce. The 0.9 per cent increase in the index for the ‘Recreation, Sport and Culture’ division, due to increased prices for textbooks and stationery.
• Calendar year-to-date (YTD) inflation rate as at August 2025 was -0.8%, well below the calendar YTD rate of 2.9% for August 2024.
• With inflation falling further below the BOJ’s target band, conditions remain favourable for the central bank to accelerate monetary easing to stimulate domestic demand. Of note, despite inflation being below its target range, the Bank of Jamaica (BOJ) kept the policy rate unchanged at 5.75% its last meeting in August, citing global uncertainties. It also projected that near-term inflation readings are expected to remain below the lower bound due to cheaper electricity and stronger agricultural output, before gradually rising toward the midpoint. However, the sharp decline in P2P in August may heighten market expectations for a rate cut at the upcoming September 29 meeting.

(Sources: STATIN, Bank of Jamaica & NCBCM Research)

• Venezuelan Defence Minister, Vladimir Padrino López, has issued a stark warning to neighbouring Guyana and Trinidad and Tobago, saying Caracas would retaliate if any attack against the country were launched from their territories.
• The defence minister’s words underscored mounting tensions in the Caribbean, where U.S. military operations have expanded under the banner of counternarcotics enforcement. Caracas insists the buildup is part of a broader campaign directed at undermining President Nicolás Maduro’s government. Padrino accused Washington of sharply intensifying aerial surveillance of Venezuela, citing a surge in spy flights last month.
• According to the minister, U.S. aircraft are not simply conducting routine patrols but are equipped to monitor Venezuelan territory in real time. The planes, he claimed, are “designed to collect and process information in real time, up to 200 miles, meaning their range reaches Venezuelan territory.” In his remarks, Padrino also accused the United States of harbouring aggressive intentions against Venezuela. “We know the deployment they have in the Caribbean with every intention of sowing war,” he said.
• The warning to Guyana and Trinidad and Tobago echoed earlier rhetoric from Venezuela’s leadership. Vice President Delcy Rodríguez last week branded both countries “vassals” of the United States. “You should take it easy, don’t dare, don’t even think about it. You are lending yourselves to the perverse plans of an aggression against the Venezuelan people,” Rodríguez said. Her comments reflected a deepening dispute between Caracas and its neighbours over their support for Washington’s regional operations.
• Trinidad and Tobago responded swiftly, with Prime Minister Kamla Persad-Bissessar rejecting any suggestion that her government was colluding with the United States against Venezuela. She dismissed the allegations as “alarmism,” stressing there were no agreements to invade Venezuela or send Trinidadian troops across the border. Guyana has not publicly commented on Padrino’s most recent statement. However, Georgetown has previously voiced support for U.S. activities in the Caribbean, framing them as part of collaborative counternarcotics efforts.
• The Venezuelan defence minister’s accusations come against the backdrop of the long-running territorial dispute over the Essequibo region, a resource-rich area claimed by both Venezuela and Guyana. Caracas has repeatedly warned that Georgetown’s alignment with Washington could heighten risks in the dispute. While Venezuela’s leaders accuse the United States and its allies of preparing for aggression, Washington has focused its rhetoric on crime and drug trafficking.

 (Source: Miami Herald)

• The Caribbean Development Bank (CDB) is backing a new effort to help Barbadian small businesses grow, with a US$350,000 grant aimed at preparing them to attract investors and list on their stock exchange.
• The funding will support the Innovation Growth Market 200 Programme (IGM200), a national initiative with the intent to make equity financing attractive and accessible to all Small and Medium-sized Enterprises (SMEs) by allowing them to list on the Innovation and Growth Market (IGM) of the Barbados Stock Exchange (BSE).
• Led by the Ministry of Energy and Business and the BSE, the programme will offer training, mentorship and support to 200 SMEs looking to expand. CDB President Daniel Best said the initiative would help reshape how small firms access equity capital, an area that has long been underused. “The government of Barbados, under its national Micro, Small, and Medium-sized Enterprises (MSME) policy framework, has taken steps to strengthen the sector, including opening new channels for raising financing through the Innovation and Growth Market, formerly the Junior Stock Exchange,” he said.
• He added that the CDB’s grant will be used to build the capacity of 50 businesses, with at least 20 expected to become investor-ready and list on the IGM. “This effort is not just about paperwork,” Best said. “It’s about training, mentorship and education, so that business owners and investors alike understand the opportunities of equity financing and stock market participation.”

(Source: Barbados Today)