• T&T is preparing for a major economic shift between 2026 and 2027. While the economy is expected to grow by only 0.7 per cent in 2026, the World Bank forecasts a strong comeback in 2027, with a real GDP growth rate of 3.2 per cent. This jump marks a significant recovery after a few years of slower movement, including an estimated 0.8 per cent in 2025 and a 2.5 per cent peak in 2024.
• While the 2027 outlook improves, T&T’s growth remains relatively conservative within the region, significantly trailing Guyana, which continues to lead the region with massive double-digit projections of 16.3 per cent and 23.5 per cent for those same years. Guyana’s oil-driven surge continues to lift the subregional average in 2026. By comparison, Trinidad and Tobago, another hydrocarbon producer, benefits intermittently from gas-related activity; however, it has a more mature production profile, without the scale of expansion seen in Guyana.
• In the Caribbean, the oil-driven expansion of Guyana, and soon Suriname, and to a lesser degree Trinidad and Tobago, is widening divergence relative to economies that depend heavily on tourism. Compared to other tourism-dependent or service-based economies, T&T’s 3.2 per cent forecast for 2027 places it ahead of Barbados (3.0 per cent) and The Bahamas (1.9 per cent) for that year. However, in the near-term Trinidad is expected to underperform several regional peers, with St Vincent and the Grenadines (3.0%) and Grenada (3.1%) projected to grow faster than T&T’s 0.7% in 2026.
• Across Latin America and the Caribbean, growth remains constrained, with regional GDP projected at 2.1% in 2026 (down from 2.4% in 2025), leaving the region among the slowest-growing globally, with GDP per capita barely increasing and income gains remaining essentially flat.
• According to the World Bank, the lack of improvement comes with downward revisions in some country projections and reflects a familiar mix of demand: private consumption remains the main driver, while investment stays subdued amid elevated global and domestic uncertainty and still restrictive real (inflation-adjusted) financing conditions.
• The bank further noted that growth and quality job creation in Latin America and the Caribbean (LAC) remain subdued amid a challenging global environment. Inflation continues to decline, but monetary easing has proceeded more slowly than anticipated, non-energy commodity prices are softening, and persistent fiscal deficits continue to constrain needed investment. In addition, the rapid evolution of the global trade regime, together with heightened volatility in energy markets linked to the recent conflict in the Middle East, creates high levels of uncertainty around investment, inflation, and monetary policy, undermining medium-term growth prospects.

(Sources: World Bank and Trinidad and Tobago Guardian)

• Major global investment banks now expect China to keep official interest rates steady this year, scaling back earlier rate-cut calls, as the impact from the Middle East conflict appears ​limited, even as Beijing maintains a loose policy stance. The receding rate cut expectations ‌also comes as China holds up better than its regional peers amid the Iran war, while the broader economy has shown early signs of a rebound.
• "Against the backdrop of China's relative resilience amid Hormuz disruptions, better-than-expected activity ​data in January-February, and the producer price index (PPI) likely turning positive in March, we see ​no clear catalyst for a policy rate cut in 2026," Xinquan Chen, ⁠China economist at Goldman Sachs, said in a note.
• "We therefore remove our call for a 10-basis-point (bps) ​rate cut in the third quarter from our baseline," he said, while maintaining expectations for a ​50 bps reduction in cash that banks must set aside as reserves.
• While many other countries are grappling with higher inflation risks, China has faced deflationary pressure, giving it some leeway to counter inflation concerns stoked by rising ​oil prices. Additionally, China is largely insulated from the energy supply shock because it has ​higher oil and gas reserves.
• Late on Tuesday, the United States and Iran ​agreed to a two-week ceasefire. Meanwhile, China's central bank ​has said it will maintain an "appropriately loose" monetary stance this year, deploying ​tools including ⁠reserve requirement cuts and interest rates to keep liquidity ample.
• The banking system has shown signs of abundant liquidity since the start of the month, with the trade-weighted overnight repo hovering at near ⁠three-year lows ​and the seven-day repo falling below the main policy ​rate. "As the growth momentum is within the policy target, we no longer expect policy rate cuts in both 2026 and 2027," ​analysts at ANZ said in a note.

(Source: Reuters)

• A growing group of Federal Reserve policymakers felt last month that interest rate hikes might be ​needed to counter inflation that continued to exceed the central bank's 2% target, particularly given the inflationary impact of the U.S.-Israeli war with Iran, according ‌to the minutes of their March 17-18 meeting.
• "Some participants judged that there was a strong case for a two-sided description of the (Federal Open Market) Committee's future interest rate decisions in the post-meeting statement, reflecting the possibility that upwards adjustments to the target range for the federal funds rate could be appropriate if inflation were to remain at above-target levels," the minutes said, referring to support for language in ​the Fed's policy statement that would suggest the Fed might either cut or raise rates in the future.
• The Fed has been cutting rates since 2024, and ​its statement was designed to lean towards more reductions in the future, language that was ultimately maintained at the March meeting. Still, the March ⁠minutes reflect a larger group open to potential hikes than at the January meeting, when only "several" officials were willing to open the door to tighter monetary policy.
• Following the Feb. ​28 outbreak of war, "many participants pointed to the risk of inflation remaining elevated for longer than expected amid a persistent increase in oil prices," while others cited concerns about rising ​inflation expectations and risks that higher headline inflation would raise underlying inflation trends as well. Should the higher energy prices persist, "higher input costs would be more likely to pass through to core inflation," the minutes said.
• The Fed ⁠in March held its benchmark overnight interest rate steady in the 50%-3.75% rangeas it weighed how Middle East-driven oil spikes and AI adoption might fuel "persistent" inflation while simultaneously threatening economic growth and employment. The minutes were released on Wednesday, a day after the U.S. and Iran agreed to a two-week ceasefire. News of the cease fire caused oil pricesto drop more than 15% to around $92 a barrel.

(Source: Reuters)

• Mayberry Group Limited (MGL) recorded a significantly wider net loss of $5.52Bn for FY2025, compared to a loss of $724.7Mn in 2024, reflecting substantial valuation losses within its investment portfolio.
• The Group’s core subsidiary, Mayberry Jamaican Equities Limited (MJE), drove the outturn, recording negative revenue of $4.09Bn and a total comprehensive loss of $5.71Bn.
• The deterioration was largely driven by fair value losses on key holdings. Notably, MGL recorded a $3.29Bn decline in the fair value of investments in associates at Fair Value Through Profit or Loss (FVTPL), primarily linked to the fall off in the share price of Supreme Ventures Limited (SVL), whose carrying value fell to $10.59Bn from $13.12Bn. SVL’s share price came under pressure following the economic fallout from Hurricane Melissa (October 2025), which dampened consumer spending and gaming activity. Over 40.0% of SVL's Off-Track Betting locations sustained damages, and this, along with the temporary suspension of lottery draws, cost the company an estimated $4.0Bn in lost revenues. This was compounded by an additional $1.28Bn decline in the fair value of other financial instruments at FVTPL, which further eroded earnings.
• Financing costs continued to pressure profitability. Net interest income remained negative at $331.5Mn, as interest expense of $2.68Bn exceeded interest income of $2.34Bn, with corporate papers and notes contributing $1.89Bn to the interest burden. This highlights the ongoing drag from elevated funding costs.
• Core operating income streams provided some support but were insufficient to offset losses. Consulting fees and commissions grew 22.5% to $989.9Mn, reflecting solid brokerage and portfolio management activity. Additionally, dividend income of $479.8Mn and net unrealised gains on investment properties of $357.2Mn offered partial cushioning against valuation losses.
• Overall, operating cost pressures remained contained, though staff costs trended higher. Operating expenses were broadly stable at $2.75Bn, but staff costs increased to $1.07Bn (from $940.5Mn) despite a reduction in headcount to 107 (from 117), suggesting upward pressure on compensation. A tax credit of $260.3Mn, supported by deferred tax assets linked to approximately $5.38Bn in tax losses, helped moderate the final outturn, resulting in a total comprehensive loss of $6.33Bn for the year.
• With the falloff in its operating performance, MGL's stock price has decreased by 13.2% since the start of the year to close at $6.45 on Wednesday, April 8, 2026. The company has a P/B ratio of 0.64x, below the Main Market Financial Sector average of 1.10x.

(Sources: Mayberry Group Limited & NCBCM Research)

• Tourism Minister Hon. Edmund Bartlett announced during the official reopening of Eclipse at Half Moon in Rose Hall, St. James on Thursday, April 2, that Jamaica has achieved an 80% recovery in visitor arrivals, signaling a strong rebound following the devastation of Hurricane Melissa in October 2025.
• The reopening of Eclipse at Half Moon returned more than 200 hotel rooms to the national inventory, which Minister Bartlett credited as contributing to renewed global confidence in Jamaica's hospitality sector, with 72% of the country's total hotel room inventory having been restored by mid-December 2025.
• Despite the scale of destruction caused by Hurricane Melissa, Jamaica closed 2025 with total visitor arrivals of 3.7 million, comprising 2.6 million stopovers and 1.1 million cruise passengers, generating an estimated US$4.09Bn for the country. Revenues from the sector for 2025 was not far off the recording breaking year of 2024, where US$4.3Bn was generated. However, relative to 2024, total visitors lagged by 14.0% in 2025, with stopover arrivals and cruise passengers declining by 10.3% and 12.0%, respectively.
• Cruise passenger arrivals were the hardest hit, likely because ports in the northwestern part of the island bore the brunt of Hurricane Melissa’s destruction. However, the decline in spending by cruise passengers (-4.9%) was less severe than the falloff in arrivals.
• Cruise passenger arrivals was the hardest hit, likely because cruise ports in the northwestern part of the island bore the brunt of Hurricane Melissa's destruction. The earnings decline (-4.9%) is smaller than the arrival decline, suggesting the visitors who did come spent more per head consistently with the stopover-heavy mix, since stopover visitors spend significantly more than cruise passengers.
• Minister Bartlett underscored that the core significance of the sector's recovery is jobs, stating that employment means income and economic stability for thousands of Jamaicans, calling the reopening "a defining moment in Jamaica's journey of resilience and renewal."
• The Ministry of Tourism is now advancing a strategy focused on strengthening infrastructure, expanding all-inclusive offerings, enhancing destination assurance, and pivoting more deliberately toward luxury tourism. This represents an early step in that strategic shift and positioning Half Moon as a key hub for luxury and artistic expression along Jamaica's north coast.
• While the recovery trajectory is encouraging, external risks are elevated and could temper the pace of normalisation. Increased geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, pose upside risks to global oil prices, which are translating into higher travel costs. Jet fuel prices have increased materially and are driving airfare increases that can suppress demand from the price-sensitive leisure travellers. At the same time, persistent inflationary pressures in key source markets may erode consumers’ disposable income, weighing on discretionary spending such as tourism. Against this backdrop, while Jamaica’s shift toward higher-value, luxury tourism may help support earnings per visitor, the sector’s near-term outlook remains sensitive to global macroeconomic and geopolitical developments.

(Sources: JIS, Jamaica Tourist Board Online (JTB), Caribbean Journal and NCBCM Research)

• Barbados reaffirmed the importance of the World Trade Organisation (WTO) and committed to “working constructively” with all members to strengthen the institution, emphasising that access to a predictable rules-based multilateral trading system is vital for its economic survival, food security, and developmental goals.
• Senior Minister of Foreign Affairs and Foreign Trade Senator, Christopher Sinckler, highlighted that as a small island developing state, Barbados values the WTO as a cornerstone of economic security and sustainable development. He stressed the need for WTO reforms supporting consensus decision-making, sustainable development, and special and differential treatment for vulnerable economies.
• Minister Sinckler also commended the WTO’s development-focused initiatives, including Aid for Trade, technical assistance, capacity building, the Small Economies Work Programme, electronic commerce initiatives, Trade in Services for Development, Development Week, and Trade and Environment Week, which support deeper integration of developing countries into the multilateral system.
• Sinckler highlighted the country’s leadership in WTO activities, including coordinating the Informal Working Group on MSMEs, co-coordinating the Dialogue on Plastics Pollution, chairing the Curaçao Accession Working Party, participating in trade and gender discussions, supporting the Investment Facilitation for Development Agreement, and its recent membership in the Advisory Centre on WTO Law, reinforcing its commitment to a rules-based system with an effective dispute settlement mechanism.
• The foundations of the multilateral trading system are under strain, with geopolitical tensions, rising trade barriers, supply chain disruptions, and the climate crisis disproportionately affecting small, open economies. The Senator stressed the need for a WTO reform agenda that prioritises consensus decision-making, sustainable development, and treaty-bound special and differential treatment for the most vulnerable members.

(Source: Barbados Today)

• The Central Bank of The Bahamas (CoB) reported that the government’s deficit for Q2 FY2025/26 widened to $201.3Mn, up from $190.2Mn in Q2 2024/25.
• Total revenue fell $40.5Mn (-5.3%) to $718.0Mn, driven primarily by a $47.2Mn (-7.0%) drop in tax receipts, overshadowing the $29.3 million (3.1%) falloff in aggregate expenditure to $919.3 million.
• Taxes on international trade and transactions fell $33.9Mn (-15.1%) to $191.2Mn, reflecting declines in departure taxes of $17.3Mn, (-18.5%) and export and excise duties down 23.9% or $15.9Mn. The decline in departure taxes is likely attributable to outstanding cruise departure tax and sustainability levy payments, which totalled approximately $18.8Mn for H1 FY2025/26 and remained owed to the Government as at December 2025.
• Taxes on goods and services fell $10.8Mn (-2.6%) to $396.1Mn, including VAT (-0.6%) and stamp taxes (-2.4%). Specific taxes, mainly gaming, fell $6.3Mn (-35.4%), and excise taxes by $0.7Mn (-23.3%). Taxes on the use of goods and services dropped $1.3Mn (-3.6%) to $33.5Mn, largely due to lower business license fees. Property taxes declined $4.0Mn (-9.3%) to $39.3Mn. Non-tax revenue rose $5.9Mn (7.1%) to $88.9Mn, led by customs fees up $5.5Mn or 36.4% and higher fines, penalties, and forfeitures.
• That said, aggregate expenditure also fell by $29.3Mn (-3.1%) to $919.3Mn amidst weaker revenue uptake. Recurrent spending declined $22.4Mn (-2.6%) to $854.5Mn, including lower payments for goods and services (-$33.9Mn, -18.0%), miscellaneous payments (-$8.2Mn, -11.5%), and subsidies (-$3.6Mn, -3.2%). Grants fell sharply (-$3.5Mn, -89.2%). In contrast, debt interest rose $11.1Mn (5.0%) to $234.2Mn, personal emoluments grew $12.1Mn (5.5%) to $231.4Mn, and social benefits increased $3.5Mn (6.2%) to $60.8Mn.
• Capital spending decreased $6.9Mn (-9.7%) to $64.8Mn, largely due to a $14.3Mn (-21.9%) drop in non-financial asset acquisition, partially offset by a $7.3Mn rise in capital transfers to $13.9Mn.
• The widening deficit reflects persistent pressure on government revenues, primarily from trade- and consumption-related taxes, even as expenditure moderation partially offsets the impact. Non-tax revenues and targeted areas of growth in capital transfers provide some fiscal flexibility, but reliance on volatile trade-related taxes leaves the fiscal position sensitive to external shocks.

(Source: The Nassau Guardian)

• Bank of ​England (BoE) Governor Andrew Bailey said on Wednesday that markets were still getting ahead of themselves by pricing in interest rate hikes by the central bank, which wants to ‌avoid adding to the damage Britain's economy faces from the Iran war.
• Bailey highlighted that BoE policymakers would need to keep a clear focus on risks to growth and jobs as well as inflation when making their next decision on rates. The war in the Middle East has driven up energy prices sharply, fuelling inflation but also dealing a wider blow to the global economy.
• Bailey also highlighted the risks the Iran war posed to heavily leveraged ​financial markets, following the central bank's warning earlier in the day of fragility in private credit and bond markets.
• Financial markets are currently pricing in two rate hikes by the BoE this year - and ​have previously priced in as many as four - while most economists expect rates to stay on hold. S. bank J.P. Morgan said it now only expects the BoE to raise rates in June, rather than its ​previous forecast of hikes in April and July.
• While the BoE voted unanimously to keep interest rates on hold at 3.75% last month, Bailey has been the swing voter on the Monetary Policy Committee in ​previous meetings. Some members have talked about a possible need to ‌raise rates to ⁠stave off inflation threats, but Bailey said a precautionary rate rise might not be in line with his view of how the BoE should implement its remit to keep inflation at 2% over the medium term.
• Bailey approvingly cited comments made during a jump in inflation in 2011 by then-BoE Governor Mervyn King, who said it was the BoE's job to discharge its remit in a way that causes the least ​damage to the economy and the people

(Source: Reuters)

• Oil prices plummeted on Wednesday after President Trump announced a two-week ceasefirewith Iran. Futures for international benchmark Brent crudewere down about 17 per cent to about $91 per barrel, while S. benchmark WTI was down about 18 per cent, trading at around $93 per barrel on Wednesday morning.
• The Wall Street Journal reportedthat prices were heading for their biggest single-day drop since the beginning of the COVID-19 pandemic.
• While oil prices are still higher than they were before the war with Iran, the massive drop indicates that markets are optimistic about the president’s ceasefire announcement.
• Trump said Tuesday that he would “suspend” attacks on Iran for two weeks, as long as Tehran agrees to keep the Strait of Hormuz open. The strait, off Iran’s coast, is a key oil shipping channel, with about 20 percent of the world’s oil travelling through the waterway on an average day.
• Since the start of the conflict, the strait has been mostly closed, with Iran threatening boats that cross through. This has sent oil prices soaring in recent weeks.
• It has also inflamed prices at the pump back in the U.S. Gasoline prices did not immediately react to oil prices dropping, as the national average gasoline priceon Wednesday was still around $4.16 per gallon. If oil prices remain low, gasoline prices could drop in the weeks ahead, though the oil price is likely to depend on the actions of the leaders of the U.S. and Iran.

(Source: The Hill)

• The Jamaican economy is expected to contract by 1.8% in 2026, revised up from the previous 2.3% contraction, given widespread damage to Jamaica's productive and tourism sectors due to Hurricane Melissa.
• While the quarterly economic contraction of 7.1% in Q4 2025 was smaller than initially feared, the economy is projected to decline through Q3 2026 before returning to growth in Q4 2026. The projection for full year contraction is based on higher-frequency indicators that are pointing to continued weakness in production, with bauxite output (-33.8% y-o-y) and airport arrivals (-36.0%) showing continued softness in January 2026, following a weak Q4 2025. Fourth quarter growth is expected to be driven by ongoing recovery efforts and favourable base effects.
• BMI Analysts also note that ongoing global uncertainty from the Iran-Israel-US war and surging energy prices present risks to inflation and growth, potentially complicating recovery efforts through increased fiscal pressure. This considers that rising fuel costs impact inbound tourism through higher travel costs and subdued US demand impacts Jamaica’s US-dependent export profile.
• That said, given the less-severe-than-expected contraction in Q4 2025, the 2026 GDP contraction is expected to be similarly less severe than originally projected. This view is underpinned by several factors, including the fact that inflation has remained stable heading into 2026, with February’s outturn at 3.9%, below the lower bound of the BoJ's target. Moreover, the unemployment rate is expected to remain low, with the most recent Q1 2026 reading coming in at 3.6%. Lastly, the Bank of Jamaica's decision to ease monetary policy in February, coupled with increased fiscal stimulus, is anticipated to underpin recovery efforts and support a return to GDP growth.
• Risks to the outlook remain tilted towards weaker growth. The continued threat of serious storms endangers ongoing recovery efforts and the country's near- and medium-term growth outlook, especially if another hurricane hits the island. Furthermore, uncertainty surrounding the Iran-Israel-US war and the duration of the ongoing energy price shock also present downside risks to Jamaica's growth and recovery outlook.

(Source: BMI, A Fitch Solutions Company)