• The number of Americans filing new applications for unemployment benefits increased marginally during the last week of September, data from Haver Analytics showed, pointing to a still-low level of layoffs even as hiring has stalled. The labour market has stagnated with businesses not firing employees on a large scale, but also reluctant to hire more workers.
• Economists have blamed the labour market paralysis on President Donald Trump's trade and immigration policies as well as the growing popularity of artificial intelligence, which has combined to reduce demand and labour supply.
• "While the latest claims data show no further deterioration in labour market conditions, they represent just one small piece of the picture of the labour market Fed officials rely on in setting policy," said Nancy Vanden Houten, lead U.S. economist at Oxford Economics. "In the absence of more complete data during the shutdown, we expect the Fed to bring forward the rate cut we had expected in December to its meeting later this month."
• Initial claims for state unemployment benefits increased to a seasonally adjusted 224,269 for the week ended September 27 from 218,589 in the prior week, Haver Analytics calculated. Despite the shutdown following a lapse in government funding, states have continued to collect unemployment claims data and submit them to the Labour Department's database, which remains accessible.
• September's employment report, scheduled for last Friday, was delayed. Consumer price, producer inflation, and retail sales reports due next week are also unlikely to be published. Government data last week showed there were 0.98 job openings for every unemployed person in August, compared with 1.0 in July.
• With hiring sluggish, more people are experiencing long spells of unemployment and remaining on benefits for longer. Economists expect the lacklustre labour market will spur the U.S. central bank to reduce borrowing costs further at its October 28-29 policy meeting.
• The Fed resumed easing policy in September, cutting its benchmark overnight interest rate by 25 basis points to the 4.00%-4.25% range, to aid the labour market. But with the full inflationary effects of tariffs still to be felt, a rate cut this month is not guaranteed.

(Source: Reuters)

• The U.S. is one week away from imposing port fees on certain vessels with links to China, a move expected to cost the top 10 carriers $3.2Bn next year as President Donald Trump seeks to address China's growing dominance on the high seas.
• "While some observers believe the October 14 deadline may be extended, or even scrapped, as part of broader negotiations, the uncertainty has already unsettled carriers, adding another layer of geopolitical risk to fleet deployment strategies," S&P said.
• Trump's administration said fees imposed on ships built, owned, or operated by Chinese entities will help pay to revive U.S. shipbuilding. A law to direct long-term funding is making its way through the U.S. Congress with strong bipartisan support.
• Vessels owned or operated by a Chinese entity will face a flat fee of $80 per net tonnage per voyage to the U.S. Non-Chinese operators of Chinese-built ships will be charged the higher amount of either $23 per net tonnage or $154 per 20-foot equivalent unit capacity. Both fees are imposed on a ship no more than five times a year, maritime technology and data provider Alphaliner said.
• Following intense industry pushback, the United States Trade Representative (USTR) significantly eased fees from initial proposals, exempted many U.S.-based operators, and extended the timeline for fees on liquefied natural gas (LNG) carriers. On the other hand, it expanded fees to include any non-U.S.-built roll-on/roll-off auto carriers, with exceptions for U.S.-flagged ships.
• Alphaliner estimated that the Chinese carrier COSCO, including its OOCL fleet, is most exposed to the fees. COSCO's fees could be as much as $1.53 billion next year - nearly half of the $3.2Bn projected for the top 10 cargo carriers, it said.
• Meanwhile, Beijing has responded. Premier Li Qiang signed a decree pledging countermeasures against any discriminatory measures on Chinese ships or crews. Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping are slated to meet at the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) summit scheduled for late October through November 1 in South Korea. Last year, U.S. shipyards built fewer than 10 commercial ships. China shipyards, many of which build both commercial and military vessels, turned out well over 1,000.

(Source: Reuters)

• On October 6, 2025, S&P Global Ratings upgraded the outlooks on National Commercial Bank Jamaica Ltd. (NCBJ) and NCB Financial Group Ltd. (NCBFG) to positive from stable, while affirming the long- and short-term issuer credit ratings at ‘BB-/B’ and ‘B-/B’ respectively.
• The action follows S&P’s September 25, 2025, upgrade of Jamaica’s sovereign rating to ‘BB’ from ‘BB-’, citing sustained primary fiscal surpluses, reduced debt levels, and broad political consensus around fiscal discipline. The upgrade prompted an improvement in Jamaica’s Banking Industry Country Risk Assessment (BICRA), with the industry risk score improving from ‘8’ to ‘7’, and the economic risk trend revised to positive from stable.
• S&P highlighted that healthier macroeconomic fundamentals are underpinning the banking sector’s resilience. Jamaica has recorded two consecutive years of current account surpluses averaging 2.9% of GDP, supported by strong tourism earnings, high remittance inflows, and stable external debt. These surpluses have bolstered central bank reserves, while fiscal discipline and monetary independence have improved the government’s capacity to support the financial system in periods of stress.
• The rating agency described Jamaica’s banking system as stable and well capitalised, with manageable credit risks and non-performing loan ratios of 2.4%-2.6%. NCBJ’s asset quality has remained steady, with non-performing assets averaging 3.1% over the past three years, supported by a largely secured loan portfolio. Meanwhile, group-level diversification at NCBFG through Clarien Group Ltd. (Bermuda) and Guardian Holdings Ltd. (Trinidad & Tobago) continues to stabilise revenue and mitigate concentration risks in cyclical sectors such as tourism and construction.
• The positive outlooks on NCBJ and NCBFG reflect S&P’s expectation that Jamaica’s improving operating environment could lead to a BICRA anchor revision to ‘bb’ within 6–18 months. S&P noted that both entities are expected to sustain strong capitalisation, prudent credit management, and stable earnings as economic fundamentals strengthen. Should these trends continue, the long-term ratings on NCBJ and NCBFG could be raised by one notch, contingent on a further upgrade of Jamaica’s banking industry anchor and continued sovereign stability.

(Source: S&P Global Ratings)

• Last Week on the Jamaica Stock Exchange (JSE), there were notable developments, including dividend declarations, PBS’ auditor change and an update on the transfer of NCBFG’s pension business.
• On the dividend front, JMMB Group Limited (JMMBGL) declared an interim dividend of J$0.30 per share. The interim dividend will be payable on October 31, 2025, and the ex-dividend date is October 7^th. Barita Investments Limited (BIL) also approved an interim dividend of J$2.398 per share to be paid on October 31, 2025, with an ex-dividend date of October 17, 2025. Likewise, Seprod Limited (SEP) declared a J$0.605 per share dividend payout slated for November 7^th, with an ex-dividend date of October 17^th.
• Meanwhile, Productive Business Solutions Limited (PBS) announced that on September 24, 2025, the company’s external auditors were changed from PricewaterhouseCoopers to Deloitte & Touche.
• Lastly, on September 30, 2025, NCB Financial Group Limited (NCBFG) advised that, having secured the requisite regulatory approvals, it has completed the transfer of the pension fund portfolio from NCB Insurance Agency & Fund Managers Limited (NCBIA) to Guardian Life Limited (GLL). The internal reorganisation forms part of NCBFG’s strategy to strengthen capital and operational efficiency, reduce duplication, and unlock synergies across subsidiaries. The transaction does not have a material impact on earnings or assets but represents a step in reinforcing the Group’s foundation for sustainable growth and long-term performance.

(Source: JSE)

• The Central Bank of The Bahamas (CBOB) has launched a public consultation on a proposed framework for basic banking or transactional accounts, with the aim of making these accounts widely available to unbanked and underbanked individuals by the first half of 2026.
• The initiative forms part of the Bank’s ongoing Payments System Modernisation efforts, which have introduced critical infrastructure, including the Real Time Gross Settlement System (RTGS), the local Automated Clearing House (ACH), and the SandDollar retail central bank digital currency.
• The proposed basic accounts are designed to be low- to no-cost, providing affordable access to essential banking services such as deposits, withdrawals, credit transfers, debit card usage, direct debits, and digital wallet payments. Simplified Know Your Customer (KYC) procedures would allow applicants to open accounts with minimal documentation and receive approval within five business days. In cases where applications are rejected, individuals would have the right to appeal through the Office of the Financial Services Ombudsman or access a restricted-tier account to maintain inclusion in the financial system.
• To ensure affordability and limit potential misuse, total annual credits and debits would be capped at 2.5 times the current annual minimum wage, equivalent to B$33,800, with a maximum account balance of B$13,520. This means-tested structure is modelled on international best practices in countries including Belgium, Italy, Chile, and Trinidad and Tobago, which have successfully implemented similar low-cost or no-cost basic accounts targeting low-income or underserved populations.
• The Central Bank’s proposal also emphasises the resilience of the domestic payments ecosystem by promoting universal access to digital transactions, reducing reliance on cash, and addressing the logistical and financial costs of cash handling - especially in the Family Islands. Commercial banks and potentially co-operative credit unions would be required under regulations to provide the accounts, while retaining the flexibility to offer additional features beyond the regulated minimum.
• By providing affordable, accessible, and digitally interoperable accounts, the Central Bank aims to empower all Bahamians to participate fully in the financial system, advance financial inclusion, and strengthen the nation’s digital payments infrastructure ahead of the first-half 2026 rollout.

(Source: Eyewitness News)

• Brazilian President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva asked President Donald Trump to remove the 40% tariff on Brazilian goods and the restrictive measures applied by the U.S. against local authorities, Brazil's government said on Monday, October 6, 2025. The two leaders held a 30-minute call earlier in the day and agreed to meet in person "soon," the statement said, adding the call had a friendly tone. Lula suggested a meeting during the ASEAN Summit in Malaysia, and expressed his willingness to travel to the United States, according to the statement.
• Both presidents exchanged phone numbers to establish a direct line of communication, Brazil's government added. In a social media post, Trump said the call was "very good", adding it focused on economic and trade relations between the two countries. "We will be having further discussions and will get together in the not-too-distant future, both in Brazil and the United States," he wrote.
• Brazilian Finance Minister Fernando Haddad told reporters in Brasilia after the meeting that the call was "positive", while Vice President Geraldo Alckmin described it as "better than expected", and said he was optimistic that talks between the two countries would advance.
• Last month, following a brief encounter at the U.N. General Assembly in New York, Trump said he planned to meet with Lula and highlighted their "excellent chemistry." A meeting between the two leaders has been closely watched by Brazilian markets after the country was hit with one of the highest tariff rates.
• Initially, Brazil faced a minimum 10% tariff, but Trump later raised the rate to 40% on several key exports, bringing the total levy to 50%. At the time, Trump said the tariffs were a response to what he described as a "witch hunt" against former Brazilian President Jair Bolsonaro, his ally, who was later sentenced to 27 years in prison for attempting to stage a coup to remain in power after he lost the 2022 elections to Lula.

(Source: Reuters)

• Oil prices rose by about $1 on Monday after OPEC+'s planned production increase for November was more modest than expected, tempering some concerns about supply additions, though a soft outlook for demand is likely to cap near-term gains. Brent crude futures climbed $1.07, or 1.66%, to $65.60 a barrel, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude was at $61.84, up 96 cents, or 1.58%.
• "The market feels that the actual amount of oil that is going to hit the market is far less than what they announced, given that some of the OPEC+ members are already producing at capacity," said Andrew Lipow, president of Lipow Oil Associates
• The Organisation of the Petroleum Exporting Countries, plus Russia and some smaller producers, recently said it would raise production from November by 137,000 barrels per day (bpd), matching October's figure, amid persistent concern over a looming supply glut.
• Sources said that although Russia was advocating for an increase of 137,000 bpd to avoid pressuring prices, Saudi Arabia would have preferred double, triple, or even four times that to quickly regain market share. The modest production update also comes at a time of rising Venezuelan exports, the resumption of Kurdish oil flows via Turkey, and the presence of unsold Middle Eastern barrels for November loading, PVM Oil Associates analyst Tamas Varga highlighted.
• While refining sources in Asia surveyed by Reuters had expected a slight increase, those expectations diminished as concerns about rising Middle Eastern crude supply felled the premium to a 22-month low last week. In the near term, some analysts expect the refinery maintenance season starting soon in the Middle East will help cap prices. The Kirishi oil refinery, one of Russia's largest, halted its most productive crude unit following a drone attack and subsequent fire on October 4, with its recovery expected to take about a month, two industry sources said.
• Expectations of weak demand fundamentals in the fourth quarter are another factor limiting the market's upside. U.S. crude oil, gasoline, and distillate inventories rose more than expected in the week ended September 26 as refining activity and demand softened, the Energy Information Administration said last week.

(Source: Reuters)

• The Bank of Japan maintained on Monday its cautiously optimistic view on the economic outlook. Still, it warned of nagging uncertainty over the impact of U.S. tariffs on corporate profits, suggesting its preference is to wait for more data before raising rates. In a quarterly report on Japan's regional economies, the central bank retained its assessment for eight areas, saying they were recovering moderately or picking up, and cut the assessment for one area.
• But the BoJ's regional branch managers pointed to lingering uncertainty over the tariff impact that was prodding some firms to put off spending plans, a summary of their meeting showed.
• "Wage increases will likely continue as a trend, due to structural labour shortages. But it's hard to know what will happen in next year's wage talks, as the impact of tariffs on corporate profits will only start to show from now on," Kazuhiro Masaki, the BoJ's Osaka branch manager, noted.
• The assessment will be among the factors the BoJ will take into account in deciding whether to raise interest rates or keep them steady at 0.5%, at its next meeting on October 29 and 30. BoJ Governor Kazuo Ueda recently said he wanted to study more data to judge if firms can weather the hit from U.S. tariffs and keep hiking wages and capital spending. But other regions saw companies projecting the need to keep raising wages because of labour shortages, increases in minimum wages, and recent hikes in food costs, the summary said.
• While U.S. tariffs were weighing on exports and outputs, some regions saw brisk demand for orders related to artificial intelligence (AI) underpinning their economies. Many companies planned to keep increasing capital expenditure to streamline operations and meet rising information technology-related demand, though some planned to put off or review spending plans due to uncertainty over the impact of U.S. tariffs.
• The BoJ exited its massive, decade-long stimulus last year and raised short-term rates to 0.5% in January on the view that Japan was on the cusp of durably achieving its 2% inflation target. With inflation staying above 2% for well over three years, the BoJ has signalled its readiness to keep hiking rates.

(Sources: Reuters)

• Following the upgrade of Jamaica’s sovereign rating to 'BB' from 'BB-' with a positive outlook, S&P Global Ratings has subsequently raised the ratings of Kingston Airport Revenue Finance LLC (KingAir) and Montego Bay Airport Revenue Finance Ltd. (MoAir) to 'BB+' from 'BB', one notch above the sovereign rating.
• The ratings reflect the rating agency’s expectations that both entities are well-positioned to withstand sovereign stress, supported by strong financial structures, such as dollar-denominated revenues with no foreign exchange exposure, stable air passenger volumes, and offshore cash-funded reserve accounts.
• MoAir and KingAir’s ratings could be upgraded within the next 12 months if Jamaica’s sovereign rating is raised and the rating agency upgrades its Transfer & Convertibility (T&C) assessment to 'BBB-'. However, the ratings could be downgraded if traffic volumes decline, resulting in debt service coverage ratios (DSCRs) consistently falling below 1.2x for both entities.
• Meanwhile, S&P also upgraded Transjamaican Highway Ltd. to 'BB' from 'BB-'. The outlook is also positive. The project's regulated nature and limited capacity to withstand sovereign stress due to the dependence on tariff adjustments both factored into the rating. The rating on TJH is capped at the sovereign level due to its exposure to regulatory risks and dependence on local economic conditions.
• TJH’s positive outlook mirrors that of the sovereign, with the potential for an upgrade if S&P raises Jamaica’s rating, subject to continued strengthening of the country’s policy framework. However, the outlook could be revised to stable if the sovereign outlook is similarly revised.
• The projects’ Stand-Alone Credit Profile (SACP) could also be downgraded from 'a-' to 'bbb+' if financial performance, traffic volumes, or maintenance requirements significantly underperform expectations, resulting in a minimum DSCR of 1.7x or below. Furthermore, S&P may also lower the SACP if it downgrades the rating of National Commercial Bank Jamaica Ltd. (BB-/Stable/B), the project's bank account provider.

(Source: S&P Global Ratings)

• Real value added for the Jamaican economy rose by 1.6% in the second quarter of 2025 compared to the same period in 2024 according to the Statistical Institute of Jamaica (STATIN). This outturn is just 0.2% percentage points higher than the estimates done by the Planning Institute of Jamaica in August 2025. This increase was driven by growth in the Goods Producing and Services Industries, which expanded by 3.6% and 1.0%, respectively.
• Higher output in the Goods Producing Industries was due to improved performance in Agriculture, Forestry, & Fishing (+9.2%), Construction (+1.7%), and Manufacturing (+1.5%). The expansion in the Agriculture, Forestry, & Fishing industry marked the second quarterly increase in real value added from the sector for 2025, signalling the industry’s recovery from the impact of the adverse weather events of 2024. However, the Mining & Quarrying industry declined by 4.8%, which moderated overall economic activity.
• Growth in the following industries: Accommodation & Food Service Activities (+4.1%), Financial & Insurance Activities (+3.9%), Public Administration & Defence (+0.9%), Transport & Storage (+1.7%), Information & Communication (+0.2%) and Real Estate & Business Services (+0.2%) also supported an expansion in the services industry. However, the industry’s growth was tempered by declines in Electricity, Water Supply & Waste Management (-2.6%) and Education, Health & Other Services (-0.5%).
• The Wholesale & Retail Trade; Repairs; Installation of Machinery & Equipment industry remained relatively flat. The Accommodation & Food Service Activities industry was impacted by the continued increase in foreign national arrivals to the island, as well as increases in the food services activities group, which was largely impacted by the 2.7% increase in foreign national arrivals as well as a 5.1% rise in the average guest nights. The number of foreign national arrivals was 691,796 in 2025, up from 673,748 in 2024. There was also an improvement in the food services activities group, reflecting increased demand.
• Compared to the first quarter of 2025, the seasonally adjusted value added showed that the economy grew by 0.4%. This reflected a 2.3% increase in the Goods Producing Industries. However, the Services Industries declined by 0.2%.

(Source: STATIN)