• Trinidad and Tobago has received U.S. support to develop the Dragon gas field in Venezuela, and it could also include a license from the U.S. Treasury Department, both the U.S. government and Trinidad said on Tuesday. The announcement followed a meeting between Trinidad and Tobago Prime Minister Kamla Persad Bissessar and U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio in Washington.
• Trinidad and Tobago has wanted to develop gas resources in U.S.-sanctioned Venezuela near the two countries' maritime border, but the project was paused earlier this year after the initial U.S. licenses were suspended
• The U.S. in April revoked a license that permitted Shell and Trinidad's National Gas Company to develop the Dragon gas field off of Venezuela, despite sanctions targeting the government led by President Nicolas Maduro.
• The U.S. supports the Trinidad government’s Dragon gas proposal and steps to ensure it will not provide significant benefit to the Maduro regime, Rubio said in a statement on Tuesday.
• Shell's activities relating to Venezuela are conducted in strict adherence to all applicable laws, regulations and trade controls, including those of the U.S., the company told Reuters in response to the U.S and Trinidad and Tobago statements.

(Source: Reuters)

• U.S. job openings increased marginally in August while hiring declined, consistent with lacklustre labour market conditions that could allow the Federal Reserve (Fed) to cut interest rates again next month despite resilient consumer spending.
• Households are also growing pessimistic about the labour market. A survey from the Conference Board on Tuesday, September 30, 2025, showed the share of consumers viewing jobs as "plentiful" fell this month to the lowest level since early 2021. There were 0.98 job openings for every unemployed person in August, compared to 1.0 in July.
• The labour market has almost stagnated amid slowing demand for workers, with economists blaming a lagging drag from uncertainty stemming from tariffs on imports as well as the rise of artificial intelligence. An immigration crackdown has also reduced labour supply, creating what Fed Chair Jerome Powell has described as a "curious balance."
• Job openings, a measure of labour demand, rose 19,000 to 7.227 million by the last day of August, the Labour Department's Bureau of Labour Statistics said in its Job Openings and Labour Turnover Survey, or JOLTS report. Economists polled by Reuters had forecast 7.185 million unfilled jobs. Hiring decreased 114,000 to 5.126 million in August, concentrated in the trade, transportation and utilities industry. Accommodation and food services hiring also declined, likely the result of immigration raids that have led to deportations and kept fearful workers at home.
• The report could be the last key economic data for a while, given the current US government shutdown. The Labour and Commerce departments said on Monday that all data releases, including September's employment report due on Friday, would be suspended.
• Economists expect the Fed to put more emphasis on the labour market, though a government shutdown would leave policymakers without key data ahead of their October 28-29 meeting. "The Fed has a bias to cut unless the labour market shows signs of improvement, but the fog the central bank sets monetary policy in may get thicker because the partial federal government shutdown could delay the release of the September employment report," said Ryan Sweet, chief U.S. economist at Oxford Economics.

(Source: Reuters)

• U.S. President Donald Trump gave Hamas three to four days on Tuesday, September 30, 2025, to accept a U.S.-backed peace plan for Gaza, warning of "a very sad end" if the group rejected the proposal that he said was close to ending the two-year-old conflict.
• Mediators Qatar and Egypt shared the 20-point plan with Hamas late on Monday after Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu had appeared alongside Trump at the White House and endorsed the document, saying it satisfied Israel’s war aims.
• Hamas was not involved in the negotiations that led to the proposal, which calls on the Islamist militant group to disarm, a demand it has previously rejected. However, an official briefed on the talks told Reuters that the group "would review it in good faith and provide a response".
• Speaking to reporters in Washington, Trump said Israeli and Arab leaders had already endorsed the plan and that "we’re just waiting for Hamas" to make its decision. He gave the group "three or four days" to respond. "Hamas is either going to be doing it or not, and if it’s not, it’s going to be a very sad end," Trump said as he left the White House. Asked whether there was scope for further talks on the proposal, he replied: "Not much."
• The plan specifies an immediate ceasefire, an exchange of all hostages held by Hamas for Palestinian prisoners held by Israel, a staged Israeli withdrawal from Gaza, the disarmament of Hamas and the introduction of a transitional government led by an international body. Many elements of the 20 points have been included in numerous ceasefire deals proposed over the last two years, including those accepted and then subsequently rejected at various stages by both Israel and Hamas.
• One of Hamas’s main conditions since the outset of the war has been a full Israeli withdrawal from Gaza in return for the release of the remaining hostages. And while the group has indicated its readiness to relinquish administrative authority, it has consistently ruled out disarming. However, Hamas faces considerable pressure to accept the plan, with the foreign ministers of Saudi Arabia, Jordan, United Arab Emirates, Qatar and Egypt all welcoming the initiative.

(Source: Reuters)

• The Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) of the Bank of Jamaica (BOJ), at its meetings on the 25^th and 26^th of September 2025, unanimously agreed to hold the policy rate at 5.75% against the background of low domestic inflation amid global uncertainties. Despite broad market expectations for a reduction in the benchmark rate, the MPC determined that the current stance continues to be appropriate to support inflation converging to the target range.
• The decision to maintain the policy rate considers that while headline inflation of 1.2% as at August 2025 is below the Bank’s target range of 4.0 to 6.0%, core inflation continues to track within the target range. Moreover, the low headline inflation rate as at August 2025 is unrelated to demand conditions.
• The BOJ noted that the temporary factors that caused low headline inflation in August 2025 were primarily related to improvements in supply conditions. In particular, agricultural prices during the month were lower than a year earlier, when prices rose due to the negative impact of Hurricane Beryl on domestic crop production. Supplies improved subsequent to the adverse weather, leading to prices reverting to more normal levels. In addition, the dissipation of the impact of a previous adjustment in public transport fares, as well as a reduction in the General Consumption Tax (GCT) on electricity consumption announced by the Government in March 2025, contributed to lower-than-targeted inflation.
• Notwithstanding these temporary shocks, core inflation (which excludes the prices of agricultural food products and fuel from the Consumer Price Index (CPI)) was 4.2 percent in August 2025, remaining within the target range since March 2025. Recent developments suggest that headline inflation will continue to track below the lower limit of the Bank’s target range for the remainder of 2025 but should return to the target range by the March 2026 quarter. This upward trajectory will be driven by the anticipated dissipation of the temporary shocks. Core inflation is projected to remain within the target range over the next two years, consistent with stable inflation expectations and a growing economy.
• It was widely expected by economists and market analysts that the BOJ would lower its benchmark rate at this meeting, given that headline inflation has remained on a steady disinflationary path. Instead, the Bank opted to hold, citing concerns about core inflation, a metric that took centre stage in its decision for the first time in recent years. Of note, the BOJ’s formal target is based on headline inflation, not core, and the Bank has never published a target range for core inflation.
• While core inflation is often regarded as a more reliable gauge of underlying long-term price trends, effective monetary policy also depends on clarity. The absence of defined guidance on core inflation could leave the public without a clear anchor for expectations.
• That said, the BOJ noted that risks to the projected path for inflation over the next eight quarters are skewed to the upside (which means that inflation could be above projections). Higher inflation could stem from a sharper-than-anticipated increase in tariffs faced by the United States (US) trading partners, as well as related second-round effects. This could result in higher imported inflation and inflation expectations. Additionally, inflation could be higher than projected if there is further escalation in geopolitical tensions, which could negatively impact international supply chains. Lower inflation could, however, result from lower-than-projected international commodity prices as well as weaker demand conditions.
• The MPC noted that it would continue to monitor incoming data and will adjust its policy as needed when it meets again in November 2025.

(Sources: BOJ and NCBCM Research)

• Output prices for producers in the Mining and Quarrying industry, a component of the producers' price index (PPI), increased by 0.2% for August 2025, while the index for the Manufacturing industry declined by 0.1% according to the Statistical Institute of Jamaica (STATIN).
• The increase in the index for the Mining & Quarrying industry was primarily due to a similar 0.2% rise in the index for the major group ‘Bauxite Mining & Alumina Processing’.
• On the other hand, the decline in the PPI for the Manufacturing industry was due to a 1.4% decline in the major group ‘Refined Petroleum Products’. However, this decline was tempered by a 0.2% increase in the index for the major group ‘Food, Beverages & Tobacco.
• For the period August 2024 – August 2025, the point-to-point index for the Mining & Quarrying industry decreased by 6.6%. This was mainly due to a decline of 7.5% in the index for the major group ‘Bauxite Mining & Alumina Processing’.
• The point-to-point index for the Manufacturing industry increased by 1.9%. This was related to a 3.1% increase in the index for the major group ‘Food, Beverages & Tobacco. However, the industry’s overall increase was moderated by a 5.7% fall in the index for the major group ‘Refined Petroleum Products’ due to lower prices for crude on the international market.
• Looking ahead, a significant upside risk to the Producer Price Index (PPI) is posed by the potential for renewed geopolitical tensions to disrupt supply chains. Such a disruption would likely lead to a sharp acceleration in international oil prices, thereby immediately escalating imported input costs for domestic manufacturers and placing strong upward pressure on the Manufacturing index.

(Sources: STATIN & NCBCM Research)

• Brazil's central bank continues to see signs of resilience in the country's economy despite indications of an overall slowdown, its governor said on Monday, adding that the authority would maintain a data-driven approach to monetary policy.
• Gabriel Galipolo's remarks came as the bank earlier this month held interest rates at a near two-decade high of 15.0% for a second straight meeting, signaling it would keep them unchanged for a long time in a bid to tame persistent inflation.
• Speaking at an event hosted by Itau BBA, Galipolo emphasised that the central bank is monitoring whether interest rates are at a sufficiently restrictive level to bring inflation back to its 3.0% target. He noted that Brazil's job market has demonstrated "great resilience, while a current account deficit points to heated demand.
• He mentioned that both the bank's own projections and the expectations of various economic agents suggest that inflation will remain above the goal over the relevant horizon, which currently extends to the first quarter of 2027.
• Galipolo also pointed out that current inflation is above target, adding that all these variables "require us to remain vigilant, calm, and persistent." Even so, the governor said that the bank's data-dependent approach has proven effective so far.

(Source: Reuters)

• The United Kingdom’s (UK) government is considering stricter criteria for permanent residency, reflecting growing political pressure to curb immigration while balancing economic needs. Interior Minister Shabana Mahmood is set to announce at the Labour Party conference that permanent settlement may no longer be automatic after five years of residency.
• Instead, migrants could be required to prove their value to society by paying social security contributions, demonstrating strong English proficiency, maintaining a clean criminal record, and even showing evidence of community service.
• The government is also considering only allowing people to qualify if they can speak English to a high standard and have a record of volunteering in their communities, Mahmood will say, according to extracts of her speech released by Labour. A consultation on the proposals will be launched later this year.
• The move comes as Prime Minister Keir Starmer’s Labour government faces mounting pressure from Reform UK, a populist party making immigration its central platform. Reform’s recent surge in opinion polls has forced Labour to toughen its stance, even though the party traditionally takes a more liberal view of migration.
• Nigel Farage's anti-immigration Reform UK, which is leading in opinion polls, said last week it was considering scrapping "indefinite leave to remain", and replacing it with a five-year renewable work visa. Starmer accused Reform on Sunday of planning a "racist policy" of mass deportations that would "tear this country apart".
• Immigration remains one of the most divisive issues in British politics. The Brexit referendum in 2016 was largely driven by demands to “take back control” of borders, yet net arrivals have hit record highs since leaving the European Union. By floating new restrictions on permanent residency, Labour hopes to blunt Reform UK’s influence while showing voters it is serious about addressing concerns over integration and social cohesion.

(Sources: Modern Diplomacy & Reuters)

• Announcements by the United Kingdom, Canada, Australia, France and other countries last week to officially recognise a Palestinian state will deepen Israel’s isolation and may, over the longer term, lead to international legal measures or sanctions against the country by individual states. However, Fitch does not expect that the announcements will have any substantive effect in pushing Israel to end the war in Gaza, curb settlement activity in the West Bank, or adopt a serious pathway to a two-state solution.
• This will likely remain the case even if Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and his far-right coalition partners lose power in elections due to be held by October 2026. In addition, Israel’s role as a key security partner for European states which are seeking to bolster their defence capabilities will limit how forcefully they are willing to press Israel on a two-state solution.
• Nonetheless, expanded diplomatic recognition of Palestine will deepen Israel’s dependence on the U.S. as a source of diplomatic cover and military support. Netanyahu met with U.S. President Trump on September 29, 2025, and unveiled a proposal to end the war in Gaza that they trumpeted as a giant step toward peace in the Middle East, and they demanded that Hamas accept it.
• But it appeared improbable that Hamas would agree to their demands. Among the proposals are for the militant group to disarm, accept considerably less than a full Israeli withdrawal from the territory and play no role in governing Gaza in the future. Hamas said before and after the plan was released that it had not been consulted on it or received a copy. Later, at the White House, Trump warned that if the group did not agree, Israel would have his “full backing” to eliminate Hamas as a threat.
• However, Trump stated on September 25, 2025, that he would not allow Israel to annex the West Bank. Such a move would be extremely negative for the Abraham Accords, his signature diplomatic achievement, and the UAE has explicitly said that the expansion of Israeli settlements is a ‘red line’.
• If Israel goes ahead with annexing the West Bank, Fitch expects at least a downgrading of diplomatic ties between the UAE and Israel, as well as a further severe setback to efforts to normalise relations between Saudi Arabia and Israel.

(Sources: BMI, A Fitch Solutions Company and NY Times)

• On September 25, 2025, S&P Global Ratings (S&P) raised its long-term foreign and local currency sovereign credit ratings on Jamaica to 'BB' from 'BB-', and its transfer and convertibility assessment to 'BB+' from 'BB'. At the same time, S&P Global Ratings affirmed its 'B' short-term foreign and local currency sovereign credit ratings on Jamaica. The outlook is positive.
• The positive outlook reflects S&P’s expectation that continued primary fiscal surpluses will let the government meet its fiscal responsibility law debt target, likely ahead of schedule. This would demonstrate its decade-long commitment to effective and predictable fiscal policymaking. At the same time, S&P expects the government’s debt burden to decrease.
• Furthermore, the recent election in Jamaica has solidified S&P’s view that there is consensus across political parties and civil society about the importance of sustainable public finances. This consensus has sustained large primary fiscal surpluses over the past decade, contributing to large decreases in government debt and underpinning an improvement in the agency’s institutional assessment of Jamaica.
• The combination of consistent primary surpluses and higher GDP levels will lead to net general government debt falling below 50% this year, and continuing to fall during the forecast horizon. Net general government debt is set to reach just below 48% this year, four percentage points lower than S&P’s 2025 forecast made last year. At the same time, the agency expects the government interest to revenue metrics will fall, averaging just over 15% from 2025-2027.

(Source: S&P Global Ratings)

• Jamaica has secured its place as the Caribbean’s most connected destination, achieving record-breaking global linkages while advancing an ambitious agenda for inclusive and sustainable tourism growth.
• With year-end arrivals projected at 4.5 million, including 3.1 million stopover visitors and 1.4 million cruise passengers, the island now boasts direct connections to more than 55 international gateways, setting a new regional benchmark for accessibility.
• This unprecedented connectivity is fueling visitor growth and wider economic development. Commenting on the expansion and inclusiveness at the JAPEX media breakfast on September 25, 2025, Tourism Minister Edmund Bartlett said, “Jamaica’s rapid expansion in airlift is more than just a milestone for tourism; it’s a catalyst for national transformation. Our vision is clear – tourism must work for all Jamaicans.
• The country’s push for inclusivity extends to the tourism workforce. More than 20,000 workers have been certified through the Jamaica Centre for Tourism Innovation, raising service standards and employability. Meanwhile, the Tourism Workers Pension Scheme continues to expand, offering financial security to thousands of industry professionals.
• Quality and safety are also central to Jamaica’s growth strategy. The Destination Assurance Framework has been rolled out to ensure high standards and accessibility across tourism offerings, aiming to make tourism a true engine of social mobility with tangible benefits for individuals and communities.
• Looking ahead, Jamaica is targeting technology-driven services, green investments, and deeper community partnerships to ensure tourism remains resilient and inclusive. With these advancements, Jamaica is positioning itself not only as a top destination but as a model for inclusive tourism development in the Caribbean and beyond.
• Historic infrastructure projects are also reinforcing this momentum. The US$274Mn Montego Bay Perimeter Road, now 60% complete, will ease chronic congestion, open new corridors for commercial activity, and create smoother travel experiences for residents and visitors alike. In partnership with the International Finance Corporation, Jamaica is also widening key segments of the North Coast Highway from two to four lanes, improving access to premier destinations such as Montego Bay and Ocho Rios and strengthening economic links between coastal communities.

(Source: Caribbean National Weekly)