• Guyana has strengthened military cooperation with France to safeguard the oil-rich Essequibo region, escalating tensions with Venezuela just as the United States expands maritime strikes on vessels linked to Caracas. The defence announcement follows new reports of French assistance in surveillance and air patrols over Guyana’s western frontier, where ExxonMobil-led production continues to rise above 640,000 barrels per day (bpd), United Press International reported.
• Venezuela maintains its long-standing claim over Essequibo, an area that encompasses most of Guyana’s proven offshore reserves, which now rank among the largest discoveries of the century. Caracas argues the 1899 arbitral award granting the region to then-British Guiana is invalid and continues to reject the jurisdiction of the International Court of Justice (ICJ), where Guyana has filed its case.
• French defence officials said the partnership aims to reinforce “regional stability and maritime domain awareness,” while Georgetown emphasised that its growing oil output requires stronger security coordination as exports climb toward 800,000 bpd by mid-2026. The new alignment comes amid renewed confrontation between Washington and Caracas.
• Over the past week, U.S. forces have carried out at least four strikes on what the Pentagon described as “drug-trafficking vessels” operating near Venezuelan waters. One attack killed four crew members after a speedboat was hit in international waters off the Paria Peninsula. President Donald Trump has defended the actions under expanded rules of engagement against cartels, while Venezuelan officials denounced them as “acts of war.”
• The tensions now reach into two of South America’s main oil zones. In Guyana, production led by ExxonMobil and its partners has topped 640,000 barrels a day and is expected to double by 2027 as new fields come online. Just across the border, Venezuela holds the world’s largest crude reserves but remains trapped under U.S. sanctions and chronic underinvestment. The two stories are now intermingling, with one country expanding output under Western backing, and the other struggling to sell its oil as U.S. warships patrol nearby waters.

(Source: Oilprice)

• Canada's merchandise trade deficit widened in August to C$6.32Bn ($4.53Bn), its second-highest on record, as exports both to the U.S. and the rest of the world fell, data showed.
• The August data had been expected to show a more permanent impact of U.S. President Donald Trump's tariffs on Canada, after exports increased earlier in the year to beat the tariffs and then dropped off sharply. Total exports dropped by 3% in August from July, while imports increased 0.9%, Statistics Canada said. It was the first decrease in total exports since April. In volume terms, exports fell 2.8% in August.
• Analysts polled by Reuters had forecast the August trade deficit at C$5.55Bn, up from an upwardly revised C$3.82Bn in the prior month. Meanwhile, Trump imposed sectoral tariffs on Canada early this year, forcing businesses to reorient their supply chain from its biggest trading partner. But the shift has been volatile, erratic, and difficult.
• Overall, exports dropped in eight of the 11 product sections in August, with forestry, industrial machinery, and metals leading the charge. Exports to the U.S. were at C$44.18Bn, down 3.4% from July, StatsCan said, adding it was primarily led by unwrought gold exports. But other product categories contributed to the decline, including lumber, machinery, and equipment. Canada's share of exports to the U.S. fell below 70% a few months ago before recovering to 73% in August, compared with 75% during the same period last year.
• Prime Minister Mark Carney will be meeting with Trump on Tuesday as he comes under pressure to address the impacts of U.S. tariffs on critical sectors such as steel, cars, and lumber. Imports from the U.S. were down 1.4% in August, every month, shrinking the total trade surplus with its southern neighbour to C$6.43Bn from C$7.42Bn in July.
• Exports to countries other than the United States were down 2% in August, a third consecutive monthly decline, Statscan said. Lower exports of crude oil and nuclear fuel contributed most to the monthly decrease. However, Canada's imports from the rest of the world, barring the U.S., rose 4.2%, reaching a record in August, StatsCan's data showed. This pushed Canada's trade deficit with countries other than the United States to a record high of C$12.8Bn in August from C$11.2Bn in July, StatsCan said. The Canadian dollar was slightly weaker after the trade data, down 0.13% to 1.3960 to the U.S. dollar, or 71.63 U.S. cents. Yields on the two-year government bonds were up 0.2 basis points to 2.469%

(Source: Reuters)

• Bank of England Chief Economist Huw Pill highlighted that central bankers should adopt what he described as a "conservative" approach to setting interest rates, including responding firmly if price growth gets out of hand.
• Pill, who voted against the BoE's most recent rate cut to 4% in August, said his speech at the University of Birmingham was not intended to be a comment on the current stance of monetary policy or the economic outlook. But he said central bankers should make clear their commitment to prioritising price stability above wider goals for growth and employment over which they could not exert much long-term influence.
• "We should be cautious in assigning monetary policy responsibility for real economic outcomes because, over the longer term at least, all monetary policy can do is determine the nominal dynamics of the economy," he noted.
• The BoE estimates that British consumer price inflation reached 4% in September and forecasts that it will not return to its 2% target until mid-2027. Pill also said there was now too much uncertainty in the economy, both from unpredictable geopolitical events and difficulties estimating underlying economic variables, to focus on especially sophisticated approaches to setting rates.
• Pill also noted that noisy, frequently revised official economic data and potential shifts in labour market behaviour since the pandemic made it hard to estimate how much spare capacity there was in the economy. It also made it difficult to estimate the neutral level of unemployment in a timely enough way for policymakers.

(Sources: Reuters)

• The Port Authority of Jamaica (PAJ), on Monday, welcomed the arrival of two state-of-the-art Post-Panamax ship-to-shore gantry cranes at Kingston Freeport Terminal Limited (KFTL)¹.
• The cranes, among the largest of their kind in the Caribbean, will significantly enhance Jamaica’s capacity to efficiently accommodate the new generation of mega-vessels transiting through the expanded Panama Canal.
• PAJ President and Chief Executive Officer (CEO), Professor Gordon Shirley, told JIS News that the arrival of the cranes marks a major step forward in Jamaica’s efforts to enhance port productivity, strengthen operational efficiency, and elevate global competitiveness.
• Professor Shirley noted that the strategic investment forms part of an ongoing modernisation programme under the concession agreement between KFTL and the PAJ, signed in 2016. He added that, since then, more than US$500Mn has been invested in substantial infrastructure upgrades. These include the reconstruction of berths, installation of modern port operating systems, expansion of storage capacity, and upgrades to port security and logistics equipment.
• Professor Shirley further stated that the arrival of the new cranes will facilitate the redistribution of crane capacity across the terminal. The South Berth, designated for larger vessels, will now accommodate the new high-capacity cranes, enabling the port to efficiently service two mega-vessels simultaneously. Two of the existing smaller cranes will be relocated to the West Berth, optimising operations for medium-sized vessels.
• “This is all about the continued evolution of the terminal. By strategically aligning our equipment with vessel size and berth location, the entire port ecosystem becomes more streamlined and productive,” Professor Shirley informed.
• The crane expansion also responds to increasing cargo volumes and the imperative for faster vessel turnaround times. With rising demand from local distributors and manufacturers importing in larger volumes, existing port storage facilities have reached full capacity.

________________________

¹Not to be confused with Kingston Wharves, Kingston Free Port is the operator of the Kingston Container Terminal, a French-owned concession from the Port Authority of Jamaica, focusing on container transhipment. Kingston Wharves, on the other hand, is a publicly traded company specialising in multipurpose cargo, particularly motor vehicle imports, and also offers logistics and warehousing services.

(Source: JIS)

• The World Bank nudged up its estimate for economic growth in Latin America and the Caribbean next year, though the region remains the world's slowest-growing due to stubborn inflation, high debt and rising uncertainties due to United States (U.S.) tariff policies. The region's economy is likely to expand 2.5% in 2026, up from a June forecast of 2.4%. Its forecast for this year was unchanged at 2.3%, which would represent a slight improvement over last year's 2.2%.
• For Latin America, Brazil's estimate for 2025 remained at 2.4%, with growth seen decelerating to 2.2% next year. Mexico's economy is now expected to expand 0.5% this year, up from the June forecast of 0.2%, with growth accelerating to 1.4% next year. Argentina remains the fastest growing among the region's largest economies, but its 2025 estimate was cut by the most, to 4.6% from 5.5%. For 2026, growth for the grains exporter is expected to decelerate to 4%. Bolivia's economy is now seen contracting this year and next, presenting challenges for the winner of a presidential runoff vote scheduled for October 19.
• For the Caribbean, Guyana is still set to record the largest growth, with GDP projected at 11.8% in 2025 and 22.4% in 2026. Jamaica is forecasted to grow by 2% in 2025 and 1.4% in 2026; Barbados: 2.7% and 2.0%; the Bahamas: 2.3% and 2.1%; the Dominican Republic: 3.0% and 4.3%; and Trinidad and Tobago: 1.4% and 0.3%, respectively.
• The World Bank said that while there is expectation for stable prices, inflation targets have gotten harder to meet and interest rates are falling more slowly. Uncertainty about global trade policies - in the face of tariffs imposed by the United States - has weighed on investment across the board. The report noted that familiar barriers like weak infrastructure, a bias in favour of established companies, and poor education at all levels were inhibiting entrepreneurship and how big companies can grow.

(Source: World Bank and Reuters)

• The governments of Dominica and Barbados have signed a Memorandum of Understanding (MOU) aimed at enhancing the appeal of both destinations and developing new vacation experiences for global travellers.
• Marva Williams, Chief Executive Officer of Discover Dominica Authority (DDA), announced the partnership, emphasising its strategic importance of helping to “…to cement a step towards strengthening the appeal of both countries to promote sustainable tourism and to develop new vacation experiences for travellers”.
• The MOU establishes a joint framework for cooperation, with a strong emphasis on marketing, knowledge sharing, idea exchange, and enhancing the visitor experience across both destinations. The timing of the agreement aligns with growing interest in Caribbean travel from key markets such as Europe, the United Kingdom, the United States, and Latin America.
• Williams added that the collaboration “This collaboration is especially timely as the Caribbean continues to attract travellers… who are seeking diverse and enriching unique experiences,” she said. To ensure the effective implementation of the MOU, a joint working group will be formed to monitor the development of a detailed action plan to ensure that the partnership achieves its objectives and ensures that the economic value is seen for both countries.
• Ultimately, the MOU also highlights a broader regional significance as it aligns with the Caribbean Tourism Organisation’s “Re-imagine Tourism” initiative.

(Source: Dominican News Online)

• The number of Americans filing new applications for unemployment benefits increased marginally during the last week of September, data from Haver Analytics showed, pointing to a still-low level of layoffs even as hiring has stalled. The labour market has stagnated with businesses not firing employees on a large scale, but also reluctant to hire more workers.
• Economists have blamed the labour market paralysis on President Donald Trump's trade and immigration policies as well as the growing popularity of artificial intelligence, which has combined to reduce demand and labour supply.
• "While the latest claims data show no further deterioration in labour market conditions, they represent just one small piece of the picture of the labour market Fed officials rely on in setting policy," said Nancy Vanden Houten, lead U.S. economist at Oxford Economics. "In the absence of more complete data during the shutdown, we expect the Fed to bring forward the rate cut we had expected in December to its meeting later this month."
• Initial claims for state unemployment benefits increased to a seasonally adjusted 224,269 for the week ended September 27 from 218,589 in the prior week, Haver Analytics calculated. Despite the shutdown following a lapse in government funding, states have continued to collect unemployment claims data and submit them to the Labour Department's database, which remains accessible.
• September's employment report, scheduled for last Friday, was delayed. Consumer price, producer inflation, and retail sales reports due next week are also unlikely to be published. Government data last week showed there were 0.98 job openings for every unemployed person in August, compared with 1.0 in July.
• With hiring sluggish, more people are experiencing long spells of unemployment and remaining on benefits for longer. Economists expect the lacklustre labour market will spur the U.S. central bank to reduce borrowing costs further at its October 28-29 policy meeting.
• The Fed resumed easing policy in September, cutting its benchmark overnight interest rate by 25 basis points to the 4.00%-4.25% range, to aid the labour market. But with the full inflationary effects of tariffs still to be felt, a rate cut this month is not guaranteed.

(Source: Reuters)

• The U.S. is one week away from imposing port fees on certain vessels with links to China, a move expected to cost the top 10 carriers $3.2Bn next year as President Donald Trump seeks to address China's growing dominance on the high seas.
• "While some observers believe the October 14 deadline may be extended, or even scrapped, as part of broader negotiations, the uncertainty has already unsettled carriers, adding another layer of geopolitical risk to fleet deployment strategies," S&P said.
• Trump's administration said fees imposed on ships built, owned, or operated by Chinese entities will help pay to revive U.S. shipbuilding. A law to direct long-term funding is making its way through the U.S. Congress with strong bipartisan support.
• Vessels owned or operated by a Chinese entity will face a flat fee of $80 per net tonnage per voyage to the U.S. Non-Chinese operators of Chinese-built ships will be charged the higher amount of either $23 per net tonnage or $154 per 20-foot equivalent unit capacity. Both fees are imposed on a ship no more than five times a year, maritime technology and data provider Alphaliner said.
• Following intense industry pushback, the United States Trade Representative (USTR) significantly eased fees from initial proposals, exempted many U.S.-based operators, and extended the timeline for fees on liquefied natural gas (LNG) carriers. On the other hand, it expanded fees to include any non-U.S.-built roll-on/roll-off auto carriers, with exceptions for U.S.-flagged ships.
• Alphaliner estimated that the Chinese carrier COSCO, including its OOCL fleet, is most exposed to the fees. COSCO's fees could be as much as $1.53 billion next year - nearly half of the $3.2Bn projected for the top 10 cargo carriers, it said.
• Meanwhile, Beijing has responded. Premier Li Qiang signed a decree pledging countermeasures against any discriminatory measures on Chinese ships or crews. Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping are slated to meet at the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) summit scheduled for late October through November 1 in South Korea. Last year, U.S. shipyards built fewer than 10 commercial ships. China shipyards, many of which build both commercial and military vessels, turned out well over 1,000.

(Source: Reuters)

• On October 6, 2025, S&P Global Ratings upgraded the outlooks on National Commercial Bank Jamaica Ltd. (NCBJ) and NCB Financial Group Ltd. (NCBFG) to positive from stable, while affirming the long- and short-term issuer credit ratings at ‘BB-/B’ and ‘B-/B’ respectively.
• The action follows S&P’s September 25, 2025, upgrade of Jamaica’s sovereign rating to ‘BB’ from ‘BB-’, citing sustained primary fiscal surpluses, reduced debt levels, and broad political consensus around fiscal discipline. The upgrade prompted an improvement in Jamaica’s Banking Industry Country Risk Assessment (BICRA), with the industry risk score improving from ‘8’ to ‘7’, and the economic risk trend revised to positive from stable.
• S&P highlighted that healthier macroeconomic fundamentals are underpinning the banking sector’s resilience. Jamaica has recorded two consecutive years of current account surpluses averaging 2.9% of GDP, supported by strong tourism earnings, high remittance inflows, and stable external debt. These surpluses have bolstered central bank reserves, while fiscal discipline and monetary independence have improved the government’s capacity to support the financial system in periods of stress.
• The rating agency described Jamaica’s banking system as stable and well capitalised, with manageable credit risks and non-performing loan ratios of 2.4%-2.6%. NCBJ’s asset quality has remained steady, with non-performing assets averaging 3.1% over the past three years, supported by a largely secured loan portfolio. Meanwhile, group-level diversification at NCBFG through Clarien Group Ltd. (Bermuda) and Guardian Holdings Ltd. (Trinidad & Tobago) continues to stabilise revenue and mitigate concentration risks in cyclical sectors such as tourism and construction.
• The positive outlooks on NCBJ and NCBFG reflect S&P’s expectation that Jamaica’s improving operating environment could lead to a BICRA anchor revision to ‘bb’ within 6–18 months. S&P noted that both entities are expected to sustain strong capitalisation, prudent credit management, and stable earnings as economic fundamentals strengthen. Should these trends continue, the long-term ratings on NCBJ and NCBFG could be raised by one notch, contingent on a further upgrade of Jamaica’s banking industry anchor and continued sovereign stability.

(Source: S&P Global Ratings)

• Last Week on the Jamaica Stock Exchange (JSE), there were notable developments, including dividend declarations, PBS’ auditor change and an update on the transfer of NCBFG’s pension business.
• On the dividend front, JMMB Group Limited (JMMBGL) declared an interim dividend of J$0.30 per share. The interim dividend will be payable on October 31, 2025, and the ex-dividend date is October 7^th. Barita Investments Limited (BIL) also approved an interim dividend of J$2.398 per share to be paid on October 31, 2025, with an ex-dividend date of October 17, 2025. Likewise, Seprod Limited (SEP) declared a J$0.605 per share dividend payout slated for November 7^th, with an ex-dividend date of October 17^th.
• Meanwhile, Productive Business Solutions Limited (PBS) announced that on September 24, 2025, the company’s external auditors were changed from PricewaterhouseCoopers to Deloitte & Touche.
• Lastly, on September 30, 2025, NCB Financial Group Limited (NCBFG) advised that, having secured the requisite regulatory approvals, it has completed the transfer of the pension fund portfolio from NCB Insurance Agency & Fund Managers Limited (NCBIA) to Guardian Life Limited (GLL). The internal reorganisation forms part of NCBFG’s strategy to strengthen capital and operational efficiency, reduce duplication, and unlock synergies across subsidiaries. The transaction does not have a material impact on earnings or assets but represents a step in reinforcing the Group’s foundation for sustainable growth and long-term performance.

(Source: JSE)