• Mexican state oil firm Pemex's financial debt should end the third quarter at around $80Bn, according to the Finance Minister.
• Pemex is one of the world's most heavily indebted energy companies, with nearly $100 billion in financial debt and some $22Bn owed to suppliers and contractors.
• The oil producer is slated to receive some 263.5Bn pesos ($14.30Bn) from the government in 2026 to help the firm meet its debt and loan payments, according to the government's budget plan.
• Mexico is set to raise around $14Bn through two fresh bond issues, launched earlier this month to go toward Pemex, with the majority of the funds paying for a sweeping Pemex bond buyback.

(Source: Reuters)

• Sales of new U.S. single-family homes surged in August, but the boost from declining mortgage rates could be limited by a weakening labour market. New home sales shot up 20.5% to a seasonally adjusted annualised rate of 800,000 units last month, the Commerce Department's Census Bureau said on Wednesday. The sales pace for July was revised higher to a rate of 664,000 units from the previously reported pace of 652,000 units.
• Economists polled by Reuters had forecast new home sales, which make up about 14% of U.S. home sales, easing to a rate of 650,000 units. New home sales, which are counted at the signing of a contract, are volatile on a month-to-month basis and subject to big revisions. They soared 15.4% on a year-over-year basis in August.
• Mortgage rates declined as the Federal Reserve prepared to resume easing monetary policy. The U.S. central bank cut its benchmark overnight interest rate last week by 25 basis points to the 4.00%-4.25% target. The Fed projected a steady pace of reductions for the rest of 2025.
• The rate on the popular 30-year mortgage dropped to an 11-month low of 6.26% last week, data from mortgage finance agency Freddie Mac showed. It has been edging lower since mid-July and is down from around 7.04% in mid-January.
• However, the labour market has softened, with non-farm payrolls gains averaging only 29,000 jobs per month in the three months to August compared to 82,000 during the same period last year.

(Source: Reuters)

• German business morale unexpectedly declined in September, a survey showed on Wednesday, as the economic outlook remained weak. The Ifo Institute¹ said its business climate index decreased to 87.7 in September from a revised 88.9 in August. Analysts polled by Reuters had forecast a reading of 89.3.
• Companies were less satisfied with their current business, and expectations also clouded noticeably. There is a growing sense that the promised reforms of the new government to revive the economy are slower and less far-reaching than initially expected.
• The drop in Ifo's expectations index reflects a sobering mood, as economic reforms have been very sluggish, said Cyrus de la Rubia, chief economist at Hamburg Commercial Bank.
• Germany has struggled to regain momentum this year, with the economy contracting by 0.3% in the second quarter compared with the first three months of the year, as U.S. demand slowed following months of buying ahead in anticipation of U.S. President Donald Trump's new tariffs.
• Capital Economics expects growth will only accelerate meaningfully next year, when fiscal policy is set to be loosened significantly, senior Europe economist Franziska Palmas said.
• The Ifo index declined across all sectors with the exception of the construction industry, the data showed. The unexpectedly sharp decline in the Ifo index dampens hopes for a swift economic recovery, said Robin Winkler, Germany's chief economist at Deutsche Bank.
• Nevertheless, he noted that business activity in Germany grew at an accelerated pace in September, hitting its fastest pace in 16 months, the HCOB German flash composite Purchasing Managers' Index showed on Tuesday. "The German economy is growing again but only weakly,” Winkler said.

_________________________

The Ifo Institute for Economic Research is a Munich-based research institution. Ifo is an acronym for Information and Forschung

(Source: Reuters)

• Jamaica has seen an impressive surge in visitors from Latin America (LATAM) in recent months. This growth comes at a time when LATAM has emerged as a key market for Jamaica’s tourism sector. The revelation was made by Alex Pace, Chief Executive Officer of Global Marketing and Sales and Jamaica Tourist Board (JTB) regional representative, during the Jamaica Product Exchange (JAPEX).
• With LATAM countries, including Argentina, Chile, and Peru, contributing significantly to Jamaica’s tourism arrivals, the country is making strategic moves to strengthen its ties with this growing market. In a press briefing on September 23, 2025, Pace confirmed that Jamaica was on track to reach a 77% increase in visitor arrivals compared to the previous year from LATAM as travel connections and trade relationships continue to improve. The growth in airlift capacity, with nearly a 75% increase in available seats, signals that the demand for Jamaican tourism is growing rapidly in Latin America, especially among wealthier travellers.
• Jamaica’s tourism sector has been significantly impacted by these positive changes, as direct flights from key cities, such as Buenos Aires, Santiago, and Lima, have become more frequent. These routes are crucial to ensuring the steady flow of tourists from the region, while also creating opportunities for business tourism and trade partnerships.
• Argentina has emerged as the top contributor to Jamaican tourism from Latin America, with a 111% increase in arrivals compared to last year. Chile and Peru have also seen substantial growth, with Chile ranking as the second-largest contributor and Peru showing a 444% increase in tourist arrivals. This surge is partly attributed to the strategic involvement of LATAM Airlines, which has made it easier for Latin American tourists to travel directly to Jamaica through its hub in Lima, Peru.
• The rising interest from travellers has prompted the Jamaican government to invest more in regional tourism and promote the island as a desirable vacation destination. To support the growing influx of visitors from LATAM, Jamaica has been actively enhancing its tourism infrastructure and marketing strategies. Direct flight connections and improved airlift capacity have made it easier for Latin American tourists to visit Jamaica. The increase in seat capacity and new flight routes have opened up more opportunities for tourism growth while reducing the barriers for travellers.
• The increase in tourist arrivals from LATAM has directly impacted Jamaica’s economy, especially in sectors related to hospitality, transportation, and local businesses. The expected surge in visitor numbers is also expected to create a ripple effect throughout the economy, boosting local businesses, creating jobs, and increasing demand for hotel accommodations and tourist services.
• Overall, the Jamaican government aims to achieve one million tourist arrivals by the end of 2025, further solidifying the country’s position as a leading tourism destination in the Caribbean. As at mid-2025, the country has already seen record arrivals, and strong partnerships with Latin American countries will continue to be a key driver of this success. With Jamaica’s tourism industry showing signs of resilience and growth, the country is positioning itself to attract even more international tourists in the coming years.

(Source: Travel and Tour the World)

• Minister of Agriculture, Fisheries and Mining, Hon. Floyd Green, noted that Jamaica’s agricultural sector continues to show resilience, despite experiencing setbacks. Speaking at the Jamaica Agri-Business Investment Forum (JAIF) 2025, held at the Montego Bay Convention Centre in St. James, Mr Green said, despite the shocks, the sector has maintained growth.
• He pointed to major projects being advanced by the Government, including the Pedro Plains Irrigation Expansion Project and the Essex Valley Agricultural Development Project. These projects represent a major advancement in irrigation and food security and could open thousands of hectares of land for increased productivity.
• Minister of Industry, Investment, and Commerce, Senator the Hon. Aubyn Hill, also underscored the importance of increasing investment in agriculture and pointed to Jamaica’s strong economic position as a key factor in attracting investors. “When you look at Jamaica, the fundamentals are strong. We have a stable economy, we have the rule of law, and we have the resilience of our people. Agriculture must be a part of that investment conversation,” he underscored.
• Agriculture will likely contribute to Jamaica’s economic growth, as it is a primary contributor to the country’s exports. Both the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and the Bank of Jamaica (BOJ) anticipate that economic growth for 2025 and into 2026 will be driven by a rebound in the agricultural industry, supported by the full recovery of crop production from adverse weather conditions in 2024, along with improvements in other sectors^[1].
• That said, the industry remains vulnerable to weather-related risks and the broader impact of climate change on domestic crop production. These risks further emphasise the need for greater investments in the sector to enhance resilience and improve productivity.

(Sources: JIS, STATIN, NCBCM Research)

^[1] After facing Hurricane Beryl-related setbacks in Q3 2024 (-4.0%), the value added to the economy by the agriculture and fishing industries grew by 7.8% and 2.2% for Q4 2024 and Q1 2025, respectively. Furthermore,

• Noting that the global economy has demonstrated surprising resilience, the Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) raised its forecast for Mexico’s Gross Domestic Product (GDP) from 0.4% to 0.8% for 2025.
• The OECD also projected a 1.3% increase in the Mexican economy in 2026; an improvement compared to that body’s previous forecast of 1.1%. The positive news comes just days after the International Monetary Fund (IMF) revised its Mexico GDP forecast to 1.0% this year, up from -0.3% in April, while projecting 1.5% growth in 2026.
• Issued on Tuesday, the “OECD Economic Outlook, Interim Report September 2025” cited a stronger-than-expected performance in Mexico’s exports despite a volatile global trade environment. However, the organisation noted that “the full effects of tariff increases have not yet been felt, although they are becoming increasingly evident in spending decisions, labour markets and consumer prices” around the world.
• As for inflation in Mexico, the OECD bumped up its forecast for this year to 4.2% (its previous estimate was 3.4%), but foresees improved containment in 2026, projecting inflation of 3.6%. This reflects persistent cost pressures that should gradually moderate in the coming years, it said.
• While inflation remains a challenge, the OECD called for a “vigilant” monetary policy, urging Mexico’s central bank (Banxico) to “react promptly to shifting risks to price stability.” The organisation foresees Banxico continuing its monetary easing policy with additional rate cuts in its effort to moderate inflationary pressures. Along with Mexico’s resilient export sector, it said, lower interest rates could provide additional support to domestic demand in 2026, complementing the ongoing momentum from trade, paving the way for more stable growth.
• Given the global outlook, the OECD urged policymakers to observe fiscal discipline to safeguard long-term debt sustainability and maintain room for manoeuvre to respond to future crises.
• It also warned of downside risks in the short-term, citing additional tariff hikes and increased concerns about fiscal liabilities, including volatile crypto-assets, all of which could pose additional financial stability concerns. The upward trend is based on the strength of Mexico’s external sector, which the OECD regards as a stabilising force, despite the increasing trade frictions.

(Source: Mexico Daily News)

• Venezuela has sharply escalated its war of words with neighbouring Trinidad and Tobago, accusing the twin-island nation of supporting U.S. military operations in the Caribbean and announcing a new military campaign to crack down on smuggling and alleged criminal activity along their shared maritime border.
• Defence Minister Vladimir Padrino López said that Operation Cumanagoto 200 is now underway in the eastern state bordering the Caribbean Sea, with 60 military units deployed across 15 municipalities to conduct reconnaissance and root out “terrorist groups or drug trafficking organisations” operating illegally in the region.
• The move follows public statements by Trinidad and Tobago Prime Minister Kamla Persad Bissessar, who recently voiced support for U.S. President Donald Trump’s decision to deploy military warships in the Caribbean, describing the action as a necessary step to combat drug trafficking. Persad Bissessar also said her country would be willing to allow U.S. forces to operate from Trinidad and Tobago if Venezuela were to invade Guyana, a fellow Caribbean Community (CARICOM) member.
• The tensions come as the U.S. military continues operations in the Caribbean, with Trump claiming American forces have bombed three vessels allegedly carrying drugs, killing more than 14 people. Venezuela has called on the United Nations to investigate what it describes as “serial executions” of Venezuelans during the U.S. missions.
• Padrino warned that any attack on Venezuelan territory would be met with a forceful military response, underscoring the region’s growing volatility amid heightened geopolitical friction.

(Source: Caribbean News Weekly)

• Fed Chair Jerome Powell emphasised the need to carefully weigh the risks of stubborn inflation against signs of a weakening labour market. He stressed that policy is “not on a preset course,” with rate decisions depending on incoming data.
• Vice Chair Michelle Bowman argued for faster, proactive cuts to protect the labour market, warning it is easier to support jobs now than to repair them later. In contrast, regional Fed presidents, including Austan Goolsbee, urged caution, given inflation remains above target.
• Powell acknowledged softening conditions, with job growth averaging just 25,000 over the past three months, below breakeven, but noted other indicators remain broadly stable. Unemployment sits at 4.3%, near full employment, though momentum is slowing.
• Inflation remains nearly a point above target, worsened by tariffs that lifted goods prices. Powell warned against easing too aggressively, which could reignite inflation, but also against keeping rates high for too long, which could needlessly damage the labour market.
• Powell’s remarks come amid Trump administration pressure to cut rates, including challenges to Fed independence. He defended past emergency interventions during crises, noting they likely prevented deeper economic damage, and stressed the importance of preserving public trust as his term nears its May end.

(Source: Reuters)

• Global growth is holding up better than expected, but the full brunt of the U.S. import tariff shock is still to be felt as AI investment props up U.S. activity for now and fiscal support cushions China's slowdown, the OECD said on Tuesday.
• In its latest Economic Outlook Interim Report, the Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) said the full impact of U.S. tariff hikes was still unfolding, with firms so far absorbing much of the shock through narrower margins and inventory buffers.
• Many firms stockpiled goods ahead of the Trump administration's tariff hikes, which lifted the effective U.S. rate on merchandise imports to an estimated 19.5% by end-August, the highest since 1933, in the depths of the Great Depression.
• Global economic growth is now expected to slow only slightly to 3.2% in 2025 from 3.3% last year — compared to the 2.9% the OECD had forecast in June. However, the Paris-based organisation kept its 2026 forecast at 2.9%, with the boost from inventory building already fading and higher tariffs expected to weigh on investment and trade growth.
• The OECD forecast U.S. economic growth would slow to 1.8% in 2025, up from the 1.6% it forecast in June, from 2.8% last year before easing to 1.5% in 2026, unchanged from the previous forecast. An AI investment boom, fiscal support and interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve are expected to help offset the impact of the higher tariffs, a drop in net immigration and federal job cuts, the OECD said.
• In the euro zone, trade and geopolitical tensions were seen offsetting the boost from lower interest rates, the OECD said. The bloc's economy was seen growing 1.2% this year - revised up from 1.0% previously - and 1.0% in 2026 - down from 1.2% - as increased public spending in Germany lifts growth while belt-tightening weighs on France and Italy.
• With growth slowing, the OECD said it expects most major central banks to lower borrowing costs or keep policy loose over the coming year, as long as inflation pressures continue to ease.

(Source: Reuters)

• The Jamaica Business Development Corporation (JBDC) has ramped up efforts to drive the digital transformation of micro, small and medium-sized enterprises (MSMEs). At least 500 businesses are set to digitise one internal process this year under the European Union (EU)-funded ‘Digital Jamaica’ Project.
• The three-year initiative, launched in 2023, is managed by the Ministry of Industry, Investment and Commerce and aims to accelerate the adoption of digital solutions across the MSME sector. Targeted areas include e-payments, payroll, human resource systems, customer relationship management software, e-commerce, contracts, invoicing, and vendor management.
• JBDC Acting Chief Executive Officer, Harold Davis, underscored the programme’s role in equipping entrepreneurs with the requisite tools and competencies to navigate and succeed in an increasingly digital marketplace. Mr Davis noted that a survey at the start of the project revealed that only 32% of local MSMEs were comfortable using digital solutions, with the majority of engagement confined to social media platforms. “With the support of the EU, we embarked on the Digital Jamaica Project to move that needle, because it is essential if our MSMEs are to compete internationally and grow sustainably,” he added.
• Chantol Dormer, Manager for JBDC’s Project Management and Research Department, noted that while training remains central to the programme, the current phase is focused on helping MSMEs implement practical solutions to improve their operations.
• In its inaugural year (2024–2025), the Digital Jamaica Project surpassed expectations, training approximately 1,200 entrepreneurs islandwide, well above the initial target of 700. The broader objective is to equip 2,700 MSMEs with the tools and competencies for digitisation, digitalisation, and full digital transformation by 2026.

(Source: JIS)