• The United States (US) Government will increase its investment in Jamaica with some US$34Mn committed to violence reduction, combatting human trafficking, cybersecurity, energy security, and initiatives to boost the economy.
• Details were provided by Secretary of State for Political Affairs, Ambassador Victoria Nuland, at the US-Jamaica Strategic Dialogue held recently at the Ministry of Foreign Affairs and Foreign Trade, downtown Kingston.
• The US has also dedicated US$3.5Mn to strengthen Jamaica’s cybersecurity capacity and position the country to be a leader in the region, while through the United States Agency for International Development (USAID), US$20mMn will be invested to boost the economy and drive local economic growth to ensure young Jamaicans have better opportunities.
• This increased investment to reduce crime and violence and other social factors could positively impact Jamaica’s Long-term Political Risk Index score which currently stands at 63.9 out of 100 below the Caribbean average of 64.5.

(Source: JIS)

• BP Plc, a British multinational oil and gas company, will market Guyana's share of crude oil produced over the next year from two offshore production platforms, the South American country's Ministry of Natural Resources has indicated.
• Guyana is home to one of the largest oil discoveries in the last decade, with about 11 billion barrels found to date. A consortium that controls the country's crude output expects to pump 1.2 million barrels per day (bpd) by 2027, up from an expected 380,000 bpd at year-end.
• The London-based oil company agreed to market the state's share produced from the Liza Destiny and Liza Unity platforms at no charge per barrel, according to a ministry statement on Thursday, November 24. It replaces a Saudi Aramco trading unit, which previously held the contract.
• The government also recently said it would auction 14 offshore blocks to increase output by adding more oil producers. Guyana has not yet disclosed a timetable but indicated it could hold the auction by May.
• BP will market crude to refiners, provide benchmark and performance comparisons, and help the government understand the behaviour and yields of the Liza blend, the ministry said.

(Source: Reuters)

• Fitch Solutions expects real GDP growth of 6.9% in Panama in 2022, slowing to 4.4% in 2023. While the 2022 forecast is down modestly from 7.0% previously, due to slightly disappointing Q2 2022 data, Fitch maintains its view that copper mining and Panama Canal-related services will boost GDP, along with strong private consumption.
• However, going into 2023 growth is expected to slow moderately, as external demand for Panamanian services eases due to a global slowdown, and private consumption growth falls somewhat as base effects fade.
• Private consumption’s contribution to overall GDP will fall from 3.7 percentage points (pp) in 2022 to 2.1pp in 2023, mostly due to base effects. Despite this slowdown, the outlook for private consumption remains upbeat, with government food subsidies still in place and moderate inflation (at only 1.6% y-o-y in October), which will support household purchasing power.
• Net exports will also be a major driver of growth in 2023, contributing 0.4pp to the headline figure, from -0.4pp in 2022, as goods and services export remain strong and imports moderate. Service exports have driven headline growth in recent months, with the tourism sector rebounding almost to pre-COVID levels by mid-2022, while Panama Canal services have also been robust.
• Risks to growth are weighted to the downside. Panama experienced large-scale protests over the cost of living in the summer of 2022. Notably, the protests involved roadblocks and closures, disrupting commercial activity. As such Fitch sees a high risk of further protests in early 2023 if the government does not address remaining concerns about wages and food costs, which would impact output and potentially investor confidence. 
• Another major risk is that the economic downturns in the US and other key tourism markets are more severe than Fitch anticipated. Similarly, goods exports – especially copper – depend heavily on demand from Mainland China, and could disappoint if China rebounds more slowly than expected.

(Source: Fitch Solutions)

• Britain will change its rulebook to allow banks to take more risks to help to keep the City of London's status as a leading global financial centre, a government minister said on Tuesday, November 29.
• The City of London was largely cut off from the European Union by Brexit and faces greater competition from centres like Paris and Frankfurt, as well as longstanding rivals like New York and Singapore.
• The EU will next week set out a new law to force banks in the bloc to shift some of their euro derivatives clearing from London to Frankfurt.
• City minister Andrew Griffith said a new financial services bill now being approved in parliament will bring financial rule books up to date, make regulators nimbler, and cut insurance capital buffers while maintaining high standards.
• "The overall thrust of things is to allow more risk. You get a reward from taking risks, you shouldn't be risk off, we just need to manage that in an appropriate way," Griffith told a Financial Times event.

(Source: Reuters)

• Oil prices jumped by 3% on Tuesday, November 29 on hopes for a relaxation of China's strict COVID-19 controls after rare protests in Chinese cities over the weekend.
• Brent crude futures gained $2.50, or 3%, to $85.69 a barrel while U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude futures rose $1.98, or 2.6%, to $79.22.
• Chinese health officials on Tuesday said the country plans to speed up COVID-19 vaccinations for elderly people, aiming to overcome a key stumbling block in efforts to ease unpopular "zero-COVID" curbs.
• "The prospect of a return to normality, in an economy that is the world's largest oil importer, was enough to make oil prices jump in the first significant price rebound of the last two weeks," said ActivTrades analyst Ricardo Evangelista.
• Rare street protests in cities across China over the weekend were a vote against President Xi Jinping's zero-COVID policy and the strongest public defiance of his political career, China analysts said.

(Source: Reuters)

• For January to July 2022, Jamaica’s total spending on imports was valued at US$4,411.2 million, which represents a 33.6% increase relative to the period in 2021. This increase was largely attributable to higher imports of “Fuels and Lubricant”, “Raw Materials/Intermediate Goods” and “Consumer Goods”, which rose by 55.4%, 29.8% and 31.0%, respectively.
• Meanwhile, exports were valued at US$939.7 million which is a 2.3% increase relative to the prior period. The increase in exports was due primarily to a 61.8% increase in the value of exports of “Mineral Fuels”. The increase in total exports was influenced by the growth in re-exports which increased by US$59.4 million to US$172.7 million.
• The top five main import- partners for the period were the United States of America (USA), China, Trinidad and Tobago, Brazil and Japan. Imports from these countries rose to US$2,887.8 million, 39.6% above the US$2,068.8 million recorded in the corresponding period of 2021. This was due largely to the higher imports of fuel from the USA and Trinidad and Tobago.
• The top five destinations for Jamaica’s exports were the USA, Puerto Rico, Canada, the Russian Federation and the United Kingdom. Revenues from exports to these countries increased by 32.0% to US$752.0 million mainly as a result of higher exports of fuels to the USA. This higher outturn for exports should help with the narrowing of Jamaica’s trade deficit.

(Source: STATIN)

• The Ministry of Agriculture and Fisheries is reporting growth of 17.4% for the third quarter of the year, from July to September. Portfolio Minister, Hon. Pearnel Charles Jr., in making the disclosure in a release recently, said that the outturn represents six consecutive quarters of growth since the second quarter of 2021.
• “Our agriculture sector has been achieving unprecedented numbers since the start of the year, with the third quarter reflecting one of the best-performing quarters on record,” he said. Minister Charles Jr. noted that recent heavy rains associated with the passage of Tropical Storm Ian in late September did not significantly impact the overall output for the third quarter.
• “Gross output for the subsector for the third quarter of 2022 amounted to 214,599.2 tonnes, in comparison to 182,750 tonnes reaped in the similar period of 2021,” he said
• Meanwhile, the Ministry reported that the domestic crop subsector continues to perform well in response to increased investment and support, based on targeted interventions in productivity and marketing.

(Source: JIS News)

• Fitch Solutions maintains its view that real GDP growth in Peru will reach 2.7% in 2022. Growth came in at 1.7% y-o-y in Q3 2022, in line with consensus expectations and a modest slowdown from Q2 2022’s 3.3% print.
• Economic activity was fueled by a sixth round of pension withdrawals in June, which drove stronger domestic demand than in Q2 2022. However, still-weak demand from China for Peruvian copper yielded a contraction in mining sector activity, slowing overall growth during the quarter.
• While activity will continue to moderate in the coming quarters, the Peruvian economy is still expected to grow by 2.5% in 2023, the strongest performance of the region’s major economies for the year.
• The growth will be driven by private consumption which will contribute 2.3 percentage points (pp) to headline growth in 2023, from 4.1pp in 2022 as well as investment growth which is expected to remain largely stable in 2023, contributing 2.4pp to headline growth compared to 2.3 in 2022, as the BCRP begins cutting its interest rate and pro-business policy is preserved by legislative gridlock.
• In addition, the introduction of a new president is anticipated to have a more severe impact on policy direction, including the introduction of less business-friendly initiatives, which would undermine investor confidence and drag on headline growth.

(Source: Fitch Solutions)

• The IMF has projected that the economy of St Vincent and the Grenadines will grow by 5% in 2022, supported by large-scale investment projects and recoveries in tourism and agriculture.
• The Fund made this disclosure at the conclusion of the Article IV Consultation on November 14. Growth is projected to strengthen further to 6% in 2023 as large-scale construction projects get into full swing. 
• The output decline in 2020 was the lowest in the Eastern Caribbean Currency Union (ECCU) and the economy is estimated to have grown by 0.8% in 2021 supported by strong post-volcanic eruption reconstruction activity. However, external inflation pressures are expected to raise the annual inflation to 5.8% in 2022.
• While the primary deficit is estimated to widen as the port construction starts, the primary balance excluding pandemic, volcano, and port-related spending is expected to improve from -0.4% of GDP in 2021 to 1.6% in 2022.
• The outlook is subject to significant downside risks, stemming primarily from an abrupt slowdown in trading partners’ growth, and potential delays in investment projects due to supply chain disruptions, and natural disasters.

(Source: CARICOM Business)

• Tough new sanctions on Russian oil shipments taking effect from December are likely to boost already high tanker rates as buyers race to replace cargoes and are forced to use longer routes, a leading ship manager said.
• In the latest action against Russia in response to its invasion of Ukraine that began in February, the European Union will ban Russian crude imports from Dec 5, and Russian oil products from Feb 5.
• Designed to deprive Moscow of revenues that could finance its action in Ukraine, the measures will force one of the world's top oil producers and exporters to seek alternative buyers further afield.
• Maersk Tankers Chief Executive Christian M. Ingerslev told Reuters he expected demand to be healthy as Russian oil continues to flow but to different markets.
• "With new sanctions coming into place, we expect that Russian oil will continue to be moved. But now the importing countries will not have the short haul distance, it will be a long haul," he said.
• Freight rates have hit record highs in recent weeks and analysts expect them to stay supported for both crude and oil products tankers, potentially driving inflation that has hit multi-decade highs. Ingerslev said the conditions had prompted ship owners from other segments such as dry bulk to invest in tanker assets.

(Source: Reuters)