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  • The Bank of England is taking very seriously the risk to economic growth from the upheaval in global trade, Governor Andrew Bailey said on Wednesday, two weeks before the BoE's next interest rate decision and its latest economic forecasts.
  • Bailey, speaking on the sidelines of the International Monetary Fund's spring meetings that have been dominated by U.S. President Donald Trump's trade tariffs, said Britain stood to be hit by the global disruption as an open economy. Bailey pointed to the IMF's sharp downgrade of its forecasts for economic growth in 2025, both globally and in the UK.
  • Investors on Wednesday assigned a 100% probability to the BoE cutting rates by a quarter of a percentage point on May 8 after the next scheduled Monetary Policy Committee meeting.

(Source: Reuters)

  • The government is exploring options to make Barbados more competitive in the sale of luxury goods, as part of its wider economic and tourism strategy, according to Prime Minister Mia Mottley.
  • The PM has invited the Barbados Chamber of Commerce and Industry (BCCI) to submit recommendations on how to reposition the island as a destination for high-end shopping. “I’ve invited the private sector—the Chamber of Commerce specifically—to submit to me a paper with respect to luxury goods again,” the Prime Minister said during her address at the opening of the Courts Superstore at W Plaza, Welches, on Thursday.
  • “Barbados did lose some competitiveness with respect to the sale of luxury goods in this country. It is part and parcel of our tourism brand and part of our value proposition, and we need to claim it back.”
  • Mottley did not outline any specific measures under consideration but said the matter was being actively reviewed as part of the government’s ongoing efforts to strengthen the island’s retail and investment climate.
  • The Prime Minister’s remarks come amid increased focus on improving customer service and upgrading commercial infrastructure in key retail zones. She said developments such as the new Courts Superstore were important to improving the overall consumer experience but also signalled the administration’s intention to support both mass market and niche retail offerings.
  • Officials within the business community have previously called for a review of import duties and taxes that affect the sale of high-end items, arguing that they have contributed to a decline in Barbados’ appeal to luxury shoppers.

(Source: Barbados Today)

 

  • Factories around the world, from Japan to Britain to the United States, saw activity slump in March as businesses braced for new U.S. tariffs, though some saw a bounce in the race to get goods to customers before the new measures hit.
  • U.S. President Donald Trump is set to announce a tariff proposal on what he's called "Liberation Day" on Wednesday, after implementing levies on aluminium, steel, and automobiles, along with increased tariffs on all goods from China. Trump has said no nation will be spared tariffs that policymakers fear will be the latest blow to a global economy barely recovered from the COVID pandemic and beset by concerns over political instability and wars.
  • Asia's factory activity mostly weakened in March as the impending tariffs, plus weak global demand, hurt business sentiment. Purchasing Managers' Index surveys - a closely-watched gauge of economic sentiment - showed. Japan's factory activity fell at the fastest pace in a year, while South Korea's decline in factory activity also sped up, and the Taiwanese read-out was weaker as well.
  • China was one outlier, showing activity in the world's second-largest economy picking up as factories rushed to get goods to customers before U.S. tariffs took effect. And in the United States itself, where factory activity had expanded in the first two months of the year, manufacturing shrank, with the Institute for Supply Management (ISM) manufacturing PMI slipping to 49.0 from 50.3 in February.
  • The front-loading of activity was also cited as a possible factor behind a bounce in Europe's long-suffering manufacturing industry, where output rose for the first time in two years, the PMI for the 20-country euro zone showed.
  • Germany, Europe's largest economy, saw its first production increase in nearly two years, while the downturn eased in France. But British manufacturers endured a torrid March as the tariff threat and impending tax increases contributed to a plunge in new orders and ebbing optimism. Investors remain nervous, but global stocks rose on Tuesday following Wall Street's overnight gains, while gold hit an all-time peak. Investors remain nervous, but global stocks rose on Tuesday following Wall Street's overnight gains, while gold hit an all-time peak.

(Source: Reuters)

 

  • Brazilian central bank director Nilton David signaled on Monday that policymakers will monitor inflation expectations when determining their next steps, anticipating that inflation will remain persistent in the coming months.
  • Earlier this month, the central bank raised interest rates by 100 basis points for the third consecutive time, sticking to previous guidance, and penciled in a smaller hike in May.
  • The decision was made with "strong conviction" that the tightening cycle was not over but that the next move should be of a lesser magnitude, the bank's director of monetary policy said at an event hosted by Itau BBA.
  • The key question now is how the next few months will unfold, with inflation readings expected to remain high for the next three to five months, he said, adding that policymakers would also closely monitor market inflation expectations and economic agents' behaviour.
  • The director stressed that monetary policy is guided by inflation, not economic activity, and noted that policymakers "strongly believe" long-term unanchored inflation expectations stem from concerns over potential fiscal surprises.
  • Despite the Brazilian real appreciating nearly 8% this year, inflation expectations have only moved further away from the official 3% target, he said. Market participants surveyed weekly by the central bank project inflation at 5.65% this year, 4.50% in 2026, 4.00% in 2027, and 3.78% in 2028.
  • The director also said the central bank has yet to reach a firm conclusion on the impact of new rules for payroll-deductible loans to formal workers. One possibility, he noted, is that borrowers will refinance expensive debt with cheaper credit, while another is that they will take on new debt.

(Source: Reuters)