• The Government of Jamaica (GOJ) has returned to the international capital markets with a 6.25% US$1Bn unsecured bond issue due in 2037, as part of a broader strategy to restructure external debt, extend maturities and provide additional financing for the 2026/27 Budget. Approximately US$600Mn of the proceeds will finance a tender and exchange offer for existing global bonds, while the remaining US$400Mn will be available for general budgetary purposes.
• The GOJ simultaneously launched an offer to repurchase portions of three outstanding international bonds with a combined face value of approximately US$2.33Bn. These include US$837.53Mn of notes due in 2028 carrying a 6.75% coupon, US$250Mn due in 2036 at 8.50%, and US$1.24Bn due in 2039 at 8.00%. The initiative forms part of Jamaica’s broader programme to proactively manage its external public debt.
• The tender opened on September 2 and was scheduled to close on September 9, with settlement expected by September 17. The transaction is intended to reduce refinancing risks by replacing portions of existing debt with a new instrument carrying a longer maturity.
• The latest borrowing comes amid weaker-than-budgeted fiscal performance during the opening months of 2026/27. Central government revenue and grants for April to July amounted to US$2.23Bn, 8% below budget, while tax collections were approximately US$134.5Mn below projections. Consequently, GOJ recorded a fiscal deficit of roughly US$210.9Mn, compared with a budgeted deficit of US$194.9Mn, although stronger loan receipts provided support to overall financing.
• The prospectus highlighted continuing economic risks following Hurricane Melissa, geopolitical conflicts and volatility in international energy markets, which could affect growth, inflation and government revenues. Nevertheless, tourism remains an important source of foreign-exchange support, with 2.34Mn visitors generating US$2.5Bn through August 2026.
• Against regional borrowing benchmarks, Jamaica's 6.25% 2037 notes are priced broadly in line with Trinidad and Tobago's recent 6.20% 2038 and 6.50% 2036 issues. Notably, Trinidad and Tobago holds an investment-grade rating of BBB-/Negative from S&P, compared with Jamaica's BB/Stable rating, while Moody's rates both sovereigns Ba2/Ba3, respectively, with Stable Outlooks. The relatively narrow coupon differential, despite Jamaica's lower credit rating and non-investment-grade status, suggests favourable investor confidence in Jamaica's fiscal consolidation and debt management efforts. Overall, the transaction, along with the tender and exchange offer, supports efforts to reduce refinancing risk and proactively manage Jamaica’s public debt.

(Sources: Caribbean Council & NCBCM Research)

• Jamaica’s fiscal deficit is expected to widen substantially in FY2026/27 (April 2026-March 2027), to 4.8% of GDP, from 2.5% in FY2025/26. Consistent with the pattern seen in the 10 months since Hurricane Melissa made landfall, BMI expects expenditure to continue rising in FY2026/27 to support the island's recovery, increasing from 32.1% of GDP in FY2025/26 to 33.5% in FY2026/27 on higher current and capital spending.
• However, Jamaica's persistent budget-execution issues, already evident in the first three months of FY2026/27, should leave both spending categories below the government's budgeted amounts. On the revenue side, the government's first tax increase in nearly a decade is expected to support collections¹. These measures – including a tax on sugary beverages, a consumption tax on digital imports and a planned tax on vacation rentals for 2027 – will be reinforced by increased investment to strengthen the tax system in the near and medium term. While this will help offset a more severe deterioration in public finances in FY2026/27, lingering revenue-mobilisation challenges and a sluggish, hurricane-damaged economy will continue to weigh on revenues in the near term. Indeed, tax revenue will likely undershoot government estimates in FY2026/27, as already seen in the first three months of the fiscal year.
• Consequently, BMI expects Jamaica's debt-to-GDP ratio will meet the 60% target by 2030, a few years behind schedule, a milestone the government had originally targeted for FY2027/28. In December 2025, the government suspended its fiscal rule – as permitted under the enabling legislation once certain thresholds are met – to allow for greater debt spending to fund the ongoing recovery.
• As expected, this has driven the debt-to-GDP ratio higher. Over the past two quarters, both the total public debt level and the debt-to-GDP ratio have increased, with the latter rising from just over 60% – the country's long-held fiscal target – to more than 67.0% in Q2 2026, and total debt growing by 6.6% between October 2025 and June 2026. This outcome is consistent with the view that debt would rise in the short term to help finance necessary reconstruction and recovery efforts.
• While near-term pressures have pushed debt higher and delayed achievement of the target, BMI expects Jamaica to adopt the fiscal stance needed to return the ratio to its downward path over the medium term. This will be supported by the reimposition of the fiscal rule and by economic recovery – as seen post-pandemic – underpinning Jamaica's sustainable fiscal trajectory and efficacious fiscal anchors. This view is reinforced by the country's institutional strength, robust fiscal and legal frameworks, and enduring political consensus in favour of sustainable public finances.
• That said, risks to the outlook are skewed towards greater fiscal pressures in the near term, which could push the fiscal deficit beyond current forecasts. Additional hurricanes pose a significant threat. In addition, with tensions once again flaring in the Middle East between the U.S. and Iran – sending oil prices higher – the resulting shock could strain Jamaica's fiscal accounts. Petrojam, the state oil refinery, is already reporting rising fuel-subsidy costs, despite the government raising the weekly cap on how much domestic fuel prices can increase.

____________________

¹Fitch frequently flags unrealistic or aggressive revenue assumptions as the primary bottleneck in budget execution.

(Sources: BMI, A Fitch Solutions Company)

• Between US$8Bn and US$10Bn in annual CARICOM imports could be exposed to growing restrictions on shipping through the Panama Canal, according to preliminary analysis by the CARICOM Private Sector Organisation (CPSO). The amount represents approximately one-quarter to one-third of CARICOM’s non-fuel import bill.
• The warning comes as the Panama Canal Authority implements new restrictions amid reduced rainfall and lower water levels. Daily vessel transits are capped at 34 from September 4 and will fall further to 32 from September 15, while rainfall in the canal watershed between May and August was 34% below the historical average.
• The effects are already being reflected in shipping costs. A priority auction slot recently attracted a US$5.3Mn bid, reportedly the highest on record. At the same time, major shipping companies, including CMA CGM, MSC and Hapag-Lloyd, have announced additional surcharges on routes dependent on the canal.
• CPSO estimates that US$4.5Bn–US$7Bn in goods annually transit the Panama Canal directly, with additional cargo routed through US ports before being shipped to Caribbean destinations. Higher auction premiums, surcharges and rerouting costs could therefore translate into higher landed costs and consumer prices across the region.
• Smaller Caribbean markets could also face reduced service frequency, longer delays and lower inventories if shipping constraints force carriers to reroute vessels or reduce port calls. CARICOM’s dependence on imported food, manufactured goods and construction materials increases its exposure to disruptions in international shipping networks.
• CPSO is encouraging importers to engage shipping and logistics providers on routing changes, surcharge exposure and inventory planning ahead of the final quarter of 2026 and the 2027 dry season. It is also promoting greater regional production and alternative supply arrangements to reduce CARICOM’s vulnerability to external supply shocks.
• The Panama Canal restrictions could add another source of inflationary pressure for import-dependent Caribbean economies through higher freight and landed costs. The risk is heightened by simultaneous disruptions affecting other major shipping corridors, including the Strait of Hormuz, which could further raise freight, fuel and risk premiums across the region.

(Source: Guyana Chronicle)

• Tax revenue generated by tourism-related activities in the Dominican Republic has tripled over the past decade, increasing from approximately RD$15Bn to more than RD$45Bn in 2025, according to economist Nassim Alemany.
• The figures include income taxes and other levies linked to tourism, as well as passenger-related fees and revenues generated by hotel and tourism activities. Alemany noted that tourism-related tax revenue has grown more strongly since the pandemic than before 2020.
• The increase has been supported by the expansion of the tourism sector and its linkages with other industries. Beyond hotels and restaurants, tourism generates demand across agriculture, manufacturing, commerce, transportation and construction.
• Tourism-related businesses made approximately RD$220Bn in purchases during 2025, including around RD$68Bn from commerce, RD$26Bn from manufacturing, RD$22Bn from construction and RD$6.8Bn from transportation.
• Tourism’s direct, indirect and induced contribution reached an estimated 15.9% of GDP, compared with a direct contribution of 8.3%, highlighting the sector’s wider impact on economic activity beyond traditional tourism businesses.
• The data highlights tourism’s growing importance not only as a source of visitor spending but also as a contributor to government revenue and wider domestic economic activity. This is supported by continued strength in visitor arrivals, with the Dominican Republic welcoming a record 7.7Mn visitors in the first seven months of 2026. The gap between tourism’s 8.3% direct contribution and 15.9% broader contribution to GDP further underscores the sector’s spillover benefits across other industries.

(Source: Dominican Today)

• European Central Bank policymakers expect further policy tightening in the months ahead to fight a war-fuelled rise in inflation and could move again as soon as October. The ECB raised borrowing costs on Thursday for the second time this year and warned that price pressures could prove lasting, fuelling bets on even more interest rate hikes.
• Policymakers are growing more worried about inflation after a sharp rise in gas and oil prices in recent months, which they think may require higher rates to stop it from spreading to the rest of the economy, the sources said.
• They noted that a move might come at the ECB's next meeting on October 29, although that would depend entirely on incoming data and developments in Iran.
• Meanwhile, ECB President Christine Lagarde said during a news conference on Thursday that she could not anticipate what the next move may be and reaffirmed the bank's mantra for "meeting-by-meeting," "data-dependent" decisions.

(Source: Reuters)

• The IMF said on Thursday the global economy ‌had weathered the energy shock caused by the war in the Middle East better than feared, and global economic output was still expected to expand by about 3% in 2026, but it cautioned that risks remained high.
• Julie Kozack, spokesperson for the International Monetary Fund, said oil and gas prices remained elevated and the energy shock from the war ​was not over. Global debt pressures were also mounting, and the disinflation process over the 2022 cost-of-living crisis had stalled. Global inflationary ​expectations have risen but remain well-anchored over the longer run, Kozack told a regular IMF briefing.
• The global lender will release an updated forecast during the annual meetings of the IMF and the World Bank in Bangkok from October 12 to 18. Kozack said the global economy was being pulled in opposite directions by the negative energy supply shock that was driving prices of energy, fertilisers, food and other commodities sharply higher, while the AI-led technology cycle was providing a positive demand shock.
• Risks remain high, with many countries needing to restock their oil and gas reserves, and energy demand set to rise as winter approaches in the Northern Hemisphere, she said. Pressures are also mounting on global public debt, which is already at nearly 100% of gross domestic product — the highest level since World War Two — and is set to rise further, Kozack said. Many advanced economies have particularly high public-debt-to-GDP ratios.
• Liquidity problems are also building in developing countries, including in Africa, partly due to a reduction in bilateral assistance, Kozack said. The IMF is urging central bankers to stick to their price stability mandates, while encouraging fiscal policymakers to develop medium-term consolidation plans, she said. The IMF was also urging authorities to focus on lifting growth prospects through structural reforms and removing "self-inflicted" barriers to growth, she said. Kozack said the IMF would look closely at the impact of new U.S. sanctions against Iran, including secondary sanctions aimed at firms in third countries that support Tehran. A fuller report was expected in the upcoming global outlook, she said.

(Source: Reuters)

• Productive Business Solutions Limited (PBS) has strengthened its position in the Eastern Caribbean by acquiring the remaining 55% interest in Trinidad Systems Limited (TSL), giving the Group full ownership of the Trinidad-based
• TSL offers services, such as IT infrastructure, software development, and IT integration for commercial and residential clients. The company was founded in 1979 and is headquartered in Port of Spain, Trinidad & Tobago. The group provides end-to-end solutions in all fields of ICT. In addition to brick and mortar, TSL has partnerships in several islands through which goods and services are provided to various organizations in a broad range of industries.
• The transaction builds on PBS’s initial investment in TSL in 2024 and further advances its strategy of expanding its technology and managed-services platform across the region. It will provide PBS with greater exposure to Trinidad and Tobago’s (T&T’s) established ICT market while adding TSL’s 47-year operating history, customer relationships and enterprise solutions to the Group’s portfolio. TSL, which employs more than 250 professionals regionally, will continue operating under its existing brand and management team.
• Beyond consolidating its T&T operations, PBS expects the combination to broaden its addressable market across the Americas. TSL’s existing technology capabilities and partnerships are expected to complement PBS’s broader portfolio, while the enlarged platform could allow TSL’s solutions to be extended into Central and South American markets.
• The acquisition forms part of a broader expansion and organisational strengthening programme at PBS Group, following recent senior leadership appointments across finance and operations. With operations spanning 24 markets and more than 3,000 professionals, the company is positioning its growing regional footprint around greater collaboration, improved technology offering and stronger scale across its core business areas.
• The acquisition comes as PBS continues to grow its regional platform despite relatively modest top-line growth. For the six months ended June 30, 2026, revenues increased 0.4% YoY to US$184.7Mn, as the prior period included a US$20.9Mn personal-computer contract in El Salvador that did not recur. Gross profits nevertheless declined 2.6% to US$60.0Mn, as a greater contribution from lower-margin hardware and infrastructure sales reduced the gross margin to 32.5%.
• At the close of market on Wednesday, September 9, 2026, PBS’s USD ordinary shares were down 12.8% since the start of the year to close at US$0.85. At its current price, the company trades at a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 44.04x, which is well above the USD Stock Market Average of 16.27x. PBS’s elevated valuation suggests that the market continues to price in meaningful earnings growth from its regional expansion strategy.

(Sources: JSE and NCBCM Research)

• The Trinidad and Tobago Stock Exchange (TTSE) launched its Green, Social and Sustainability (GSS+) Bond Guidelines, creating a formal pathway between projects requiring financing and investors seeking credible opportunities. The framework is intended to open new channels of private capital for areas including renewable energy, climate-resilient infrastructure and affordable housing.
• According to the TTSE CEO, Eva Mitchell, the country faces the dual challenge of building resilience to climate change while adapting to a changing global energy landscape and continuing to fund economic and social development. These priorities will require substantial investment, particularly as public resources alone cannot finance all the country’s development needs.
• The guidelines are intended to give investors greater confidence that funds raised through labelled bonds are being directed to projects with measurable outcomes. This includes providing greater clarity around what is being financed, how projects are selected, how proceeds are allocated and what outcomes are being achieved.
• The country already recorded some sustainable-finance activity, including the 100-megawatt Brechin Castle solar project and previous social-bond issuances. Home Mortgage Bank issued the country’s first social bond in 2023, while T&T Mortgage Bank subsequently raised a further TT$250Mn through social bonds in 2025.
• Mitchell stressed that sustainable finance should remain commercially viable rather than being viewed as philanthropy, with projects required to make economic sense and generate returns for investors. Companies, financial institutions, State enterprises and potentially the Government were encouraged to assess existing capital-expenditure programmes for projects that could qualify for sustainable financing.
• The TTSE wants sustainable issuance to become a routine financing option rather than an occasional transaction. IDB Invest also noted that public resources alone cannot close the region’s financing gap, while the framework is expected to help market participants align with international sustainable-finance practices and reduce uncertainty around labelled instruments.
• The framework could help deepen T&T’s capital market by creating a clearer route for private investors to finance projects that may otherwise rely heavily on public funding. However, as the TTSE noted, its success will ultimately depend on whether the guidelines translate into a consistent pipeline of actual GSS+ bond issuances and investments.

(Source: Trinidad Express Newspapers)

• Venezuela’s mineral resources, including gold, iron ore and bauxite, are drawing increased US interest as the Trump administration seeks to expand its involvement in the country’s natural resources beyond oil. The push could open the mining sector to greater US investment and improve access to minerals considered important to national security.
• US officials are considering measures to facilitate greater participation in Venezuela’s mining sector, including a possible executive order focused on critical minerals. The administration has also met with companies to gauge interest in potential mining investments.
• Washington has already eased some restrictions. In March 2026, the US Treasury authorised certain transactions involving Venezuelan-origin gold and later broadened the authorisation to other minerals and some mining-related services.
• Venezuela potentially holds significant mineral resources, with a 2018 government report estimating 644 metric tons of gold, 14.68Bn metric tons of iron ore, 321.5Mn metric tons of bauxite and 407,885 metric tons of nickel. However, uncertainty remains over how much can be economically extracted.
• Development of the sector faces significant challenges, including outdated geological data, weak infrastructure and illegal mining within the Orinoco Mining Arc near the borders with Guyana and Brazil. Venezuela nevertheless approved a new mining law in April 2026 aimed at attracting investment while maintaining state ownership of mineral deposits.
• Greater foreign interest could help Venezuela attract investment into its underdeveloped mining sector and diversify activity beyond oil. However, outdated geological information, weak infrastructure, illegal mining and uncertainty around commercially recoverable reserves could delay large-scale investment.

(Sources: Reuters & Kaieteur News)

• The Bank of Japan is expected to hike interest rates to 1.25% on September 18 and then to 1.75% in the second quarter of 2027, earlier than previously thought, a Reuters poll showed, amid ​persistent concerns over broadening price pressures and yen weakness.
• More than 80% of respondents said the joint U.S.-Japan yen-buying intervention to stem the currency's ‌slide to 40-year lows and remarks by Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent on BOJ policy had "significantly" or "somewhat" lowered political hurdles for rate hikes, underscoring Washington's growing sway over Japanese monetary policy and raising questions about the bank's independence.
• Bessent voiced strong support for "decisive" monetary steps to combat yen weakness in a meeting with BOJ Governor Kazuo Ueda this month during a gathering of ​G20 finance ministers and central bank governors. He also urged the BOJ to anchor inflation expectations and avoid excessive yen volatility through sound ​monetary policy.
• The September 1-8 survey showed all but two of 68 economists, or 97%, expected the BOJ to raise rates on September 18, up from 57% in a previous poll. Although still a minority, more than one-third, 24 of 66 economists, anticipated the bank would follow with another hike to 1.50% ​in either October or December, roughly double the share in August.
• Beyond this year, 89% of analysts, 57 ‌of 64, ⁠expected the policy rate to reach at least 1.50% by end-March next year, up from 65% last month. Around 62% saw the rate reaching at least 1.75% by the end of Q2 2027, three months earlier than predicted in August's poll.
• Half of 54 respondents who answered an extra question said 1.75% would be the terminal rate, unchanged from last month. The share of those choosing 2.00% or higher rose to 40% from 36% in August and 23% in July. Early hints of capital repatriation ​and expectations of a faster pace ​of monetary tightening by the BOJ ⁠, along with U.S. pressure, are combining to boost the yen, which traded around 153.37 per dollar on Wednesday, near its strongest level since February.
• Japan's budget requests for the next fiscal year totalled 143.1 trillion yen ($931.2 ​billion), swelling to pandemic-era levels as Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi's expansionary fiscal agenda drove government borrowing costs to three-decade highs. Some analysts said those concerns could rise further as the final size of the budget and the amount of new government bond issuance become clearer towards year-end.

(Source: Reuters)