• Local inflation accelerated in September, as the pace of monthly price increase more than doubled. Data from the Statistical Institute of Jamaica (STATIN) showed that consumer prices rose 1.5% in August 2026 compared with 0.6% in August. Consequently, point-to-point (P2P) inflation increased for the fifth consecutive month to 8.6%, from 7.9% in August. This represents the highest outturn since December 2022, marking a fourth consecutive month above the upper limit of the BOJ’s 4%-6% target range.Higher food prices were the main driver of the monthly increase, with the Food and Non-Alcoholic Beverages division rising by 2.9%, nearly double the 1.5% increase recorded in August. This was due mainly to a 10.5% increase in the price of produce. As a result, the division was 12.4% higher on a P2P basis, consistent with the impact of El Niño-induced drought conditions on domestic crop yields.

• The Housing, Water, Electricity, Gas and Other Fuels division also increased by 0.7%, reversing the 0.7% decline recorded in August, owing mainly to higher electricity and household rental rates. This suggests that the relief from lower electricity rates in August has already begun to unwind, although the division's P2P rate eased to 4.5% from 4.8% in August. Additionally, the Education division rose by 4.0%, reflecting the seasonal increase in private primary school tuition fees at the start of the new school term.

• Transport inflation remained elevated at 14.6% P2P, unchanged from August, and continued to record the highest annual rate among the key contributing divisions. The combined effect of higher fuel prices, the July 2026 route-taxi and hackney-carriage fare adjustment and higher toll rates continues to keep transport costs elevated. Importantly, these costs could extend beyond the Transport division by raising distribution and operating costs across the wider economy.

• Food and energy remain the principal upside risks to the inflation outlook. The intensification of El Niño-induced drought conditions could continue to constrain domestic agricultural production, while tensions in the Middle East and the Russia-Ukraine conflict could sustain elevated energy prices and their pass-through to fuel, electricity, transportation and distribution costs. Conversely, an improvement in weather conditions and an easing of geopolitical tensions could support some moderation in inflation over the coming months.

• The September outturn follows the BOJ's decision to raise the policy rate by 50 basis points to 6.0%, its first increase since 2022. The Monetary Policy Committee noted that inflation pressures were likely to persist for longer than originally anticipated and expects headline inflation to continue rising in the near term before returning to the target range by mid-2027.

• With inflation remaining above the BOJ’s upper limit, this strengthens expectation for further tightening (50bps) at the BOJ's next policy decision on November 18. Some economists have also projected that further rate increases could be on the table if price pressures persist, while others warn that global tightening and domestic recovery spending could force additional tightening. That said, Governor Dr. Brian Langrin indicated that the central bank would be content to leave interest rates steady if inflationary pressures do not worsen and business inflation expectations settle down. However, the BOJ also noted that it remains prepared to deploy additional policy tools if needed.

(Sources: STATIN, BOJ & NCBCM Research)

• Stronger revenues lifted quarterly earnings at Wigton Energy Limited (WIG) and Image Plus Consultants Limited (IPCL); however, there was divergence in their half-year performances. WIG’s net profit increased 51.8% year-over-year (YoY) to J$144.63Mn for the quarter ended September 30, 2026, supported by higher electricity sales and lower finance costs. Meanwhile, IPCL’s profit climbed 185.7% to J$26.75Mn for the quarter ended August 31, 2026, reflecting growth in its existing operations and the first full quarter of contributions from Island Radiology Limited (IR).
• WIG's revenues growth strengthened its core profitability. Quarterly sales increased 42.6% to J$726.55Mn, supported by higher electricity production, which outpaced a 21.0% increase in cost of sales. Consequently, gross profit rose 61.6% to J$438.66Mn. However, other income (-65.1%) and higher general administrative expenses (+28.8%) owing to repairs and maintenance following consecutive hurricanes in 2024 and 2025, continued investment in digitisation and inflationary pressures limited operating profit growth to 8.1% bringing it to J$227.97Mn. Debt repayments provided further relief, with finance expenses falling 49.7% to J$38.01Mn, supplemented by a return to profitability from its associate.
• The quarterly rebound narrowed WIG’s half-year earnings shortfall. Net profit for the six months ended September 30 (H1) declined 11.5% to J$313.62Mn, following a 34.8% contraction in the first quarter. Electricity production increased 16.6% to 94.72 million kWh in H1, supported by favourable winds and plant maintenance, helping sales rise 13.6% to J$1.51Bn. Nevertheless, lower insurance proceeds and foreign exchange gains reduced other income, while hurricane-related repairs and materials pushed cost of sales up 21.1%, weighing on the overall result.
• For IPCL, its expanded operations translated into higher scan volumes and stronger operating earnings. Quarterly revenues increased 70.9% to J$442.13Mn as scan volumes rose 57.4% to 20,635. Direct costs grew faster than revenues, narrowing the gross profit margin to 63.7% from 68.1%. However, administrative expenses - including J$15.60Mn in one-time acquisition costs, grew more slowly than revenues. This helped operating profit more than double to J$42.69Mn, absorbing higher depreciation and a 58.7% increase in finance costs associated primarily with acquisition financing. Overall, the half-year net profit rose 157.4% to J$59.45Mn on revenue growth of 50.9% to J$794.06Mn. Net margin widened to 7.5% from 4.4%, indicating that the expanded business converted a greater share of revenue into earnings.
• Both companies have opportunities to extend earnings growth, with execution central to the outlook. WIG is advancing its 70.53 MW utility-scale solar project, pursuing regional opportunities and nearing the contracting stage for a major commercial and industrial solar project. These initiatives could diversify revenues beyond its single asset operation, although funding, delivery timelines and weather exposure remain key considerations. Meanwhile, IPCL’s expanded geographic reach following the Island Radiology acquisition, alongside its planned relocation to 33 Lady Musgrave Road before FY2027 ends, provides scope for further growth. Converting that scale into sustained profit growth will depend on successful integration, cost control and managing its higher debt burden.
• At October 15, WIG closed at J$1.04, down 19.4% year-to-date, but traded at 63.80x earnings versus the Main Market Energy, Materials and Industrials sector median of 21.43x. Its quarterly recovery will therefore need to translate into more sustained earnings improvement to support that premium. IPCL, on the other hand, gained 76.0% to J$1.76 and traded at 25.14x earnings, slightly below the Junior Market Health sector median of 25.26x. Continued earnings growth and successful integration will be important to sustaining investor confidence following the rally.

(Sources: JSE & NCBCM Research)

• The Cayman Islands Government has issued a Request for Proposals (RFP) for a CI$236Mn loan facility to support the capital investment programme approved by Parliament for the 2026–2027 Budget period.
• The proposed financing is not additional to the borrowing previously announced and approved as part of the Budget. The Appropriation (Financial Years 2026 and 2027) Act, 2025 authorised Government to borrow up to CI$124Mn in 2026 and CI$112Mn in 2027 - a total of CI$236Mn over the two years.
• Minister for Finance and Economic Development and Chairman of Finance Committee, Hon. Rolston Anglin, confirmed that the procurement was underway during the Finance Committee proceedings in Parliament on Thursday, 8 October.  The RFP seeks proposals for a 15-year, unsecured, amortising loan facility. It provides for the financing to be made available in two tranches - CI$124Mn upon signing of the agreement, or by 31 December 2026 at the latest, and CI$112Mn within three months of executing the agreement or upon one month’s written notice of drawdown.
• The proposed loan facility will support the Government’s overall capital programme, it is not earmarked in the RFP for any single project. In presenting the 2026–2027 Budget in November 2025, Minister Anglin emphasised that the proposed borrowing would be used to finance the capital programme and would not be used to fund Core Government’s operating expenditure, which is funded by operating revenue.
• The original Budget provided for total capital investment of approximately CI$139.5Mn in 2026 and CI$125.3Mn in 2027 to be funded largely, but not entirely, through borrowing. The Cayman Islands Government’s CI$236Mn borrowing facility funds its overall capital programme, covering schools, roads, infrastructure, land acquisition, affordable housing and investments in public entities.
• Minister Anglin previously advised Parliament that Government would continue to monitor its cash reserves and financing requirements and would only approach the market when borrowing became necessary. The timing of the RFP reflects that approach, allowing Government to align the financing with the implementation of its capital programme while managing the interest costs associated with new debt. That said, the CI$134.3Mn in supplementary appropriations approved in June 2026 did not raise this borrowing limit, and public debt stood at CI$471.8Mn as at August 31, 2026.

(Source: The Cayman Islands Government)

• The Bahamas Government recorded a preliminary fiscal surplus of $39.3Mn for FY2025/26, according to the Ministry of Finance’s June report. However, the result fell short of the $75.5Mn target, reaching just 52.1% of the forecast.
• The surplus depended heavily on an exceptional June. The government still ran a deficit of about $91.4Mn through May, but a $130.7Mn surplus that month moved the full-year position into the black.
• That June boost came as revenue jumped by $467Mn to $777.1Mn, nearly one-fifth of the year’s total, driven by dividends from public entities, collection of value-added tax (VAT) arrears and reciprocal offsets with statutory bodies. Its reliance on these one-off factors raises questions about whether the surplus can be repeated.
• For the full year, total revenue of $3.964Bn exceeded the budget by $67.7Mn, though this came from non-tax income rather than taxes, which fell $19.5Mn short. VAT remained the strongest source at $1.65Bn, while the new Domestic Minimum Top-Up Tax raised only 52.7% of its target.
• On the spending side, expenditure of $3.925Bn overshot the budget by $103.9Mn, led by goods and services (15.3% above allocation) and capital spending (11.2% above budget), while public debt interest of $674.7Mn absorbed about 17% of revenue. Meanwhile, short-term loans involving public entities rose 22.1% to $728.7Mn, and all figures remain provisional until audited by the Auditor General.
• Overall, while the surplus marks an improvement in the Bahamas’ fiscal position, its narrow margin and dependence on one-off June inflows suggest that sustaining fiscal surpluses will require stronger tax collection and tighter control of spending

(Source: The Nassau Guardian)

• US producer prices increased by the most in 4½ years in September amid rising costs for goods and services, indicating that inflation is broadening beyond energy products. The Producer Price Index (PPI) for final demand jumped 1.3% month-over-month, the largest increase since March 2022, following an upwardly revised 0.5% rise in August. Economists polled by Reuters had forecast a 0.5% increase. On an annual basis, producer prices rose 6.3% in September, the largest increase since December 2022, following a 5.6% advance in August.
• Producer goods prices increased 2.6%, the largest increase since the government started tracking the series in December 2009. A 10.8% surge in energy prices accounted for more than 80% of the increase, with gasoline prices rising 20.3% and diesel fuel prices increasing 21.0%. Meanwhile, wholesale food prices rebounded 1.2% after declining for three consecutive months.
• Services prices rose 0.8% in September, following a 0.2% increase in August, with a 1.4% increase in margins for trade services accounting for nearly half of the rise. Freight transportation costs increased 3.8%, while airfares rose 5.0%, reflecting higher oil prices.
• The report also showed increases in key components used to calculate the Federal Reserve's preferred Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index. Economists estimated that core PCE inflation could rise by approximately 0.3%–0.4% month-over-month in September, translating to an annual increase of 3.1%, compared with 3.0% in August.
• The broadening of producer price pressures beyond energy, particularly into transportation and services, increases the risk that businesses will pass higher costs on to consumers. This could complicate the Federal Reserve's efforts to contain inflation, although financial markets continued to anticipate the next interest rate increase in December rather than October.

(Source: Reuters)

• The Bank of England (BoE) is expected to raise its Bank Rate to 4.0% in November, for the first time in more than three years, according to a majority of economists polled by Reuters. Economists have reversed their earlier expectations that rates would remain unchanged for the rest of 2026, amid persistently high inflation.
• A strong majority, 54 of 63 economists surveyed between October 12 and 14, forecast a 25-basis-point increase at the BoE's next policy meeting. This marks a significant shift from September's survey, when approximately 90% of respondents expected rates to remain unchanged for the rest of 2026.
• The shift in expectations comes amid persistently high inflation, stronger-than-expected economic performance and rising government bond yields. UK inflation stood at 3.1% and was forecast to rise towards 4.0%, almost double the BoE's 2.0% target. Higher energy prices stemming from the US-Israeli war with Iran have contributed to inflationary pressures, although these have not yet spilled over significantly into broader consumer prices.
• However, there is still no majority among economists for further rate increases beyond November. Nearly half of respondents expected another increase in Q1 2027, while financial markets were fully pricing in four quarter-point rate increases by the end of next year.
• Inflation is forecast to average 3.6% in Q4 2026 and 3.8% in Q1 2027, up from previous estimates of 3.3% and 3.2%, respectively. Meanwhile, the UK economy is projected to grow 1.3% in 2026, revised upward from 1.1%, while growth forecasts for 2027 and 2028 remained unchanged at 1.2% and 1.5%, respectively.
• The shift towards a November rate increase reflects growing concern that elevated energy prices could lead to more persistent inflation. However, the divergence between economists and financial markets over subsequent rate hikes highlights uncertainty surrounding the monetary policy outlook, particularly if higher borrowing costs begin to constrain economic growth.

(Source: Reuters)

• Topline growth and stronger gross margin at Paramount Trading (Jamaica) Limited’s (PTL) were insufficient to offset rising operating costs, resulting in a 22.8% year-over-year (YoY) decline in earnings to J$42.46Mn for the first quarter ended August 31, 2026 (Q1 FY2027). Higher employee and security costs, compounded by a reduction in Other Operating Income, weighed on earnings.
• Renewed focus on the Lubricants division supported a 5.5% increase in revenues to J$469.61Mn. This, alongside an improvement in direct expenses, which grew more slowly at 4.2%, lifted gross profit 7.2% to J$204.59Mn, and improved gross profit margin to 43.6% from 42.9%. However, other operating income fell 40.6% to J$11.99Mn, eroding part of this improvement.
• Investment in additional staff pushed the pace of growth in operating expenses ahead of that of revenues. Administrative expenses rose 20.5% to J$136.92Mn as PTL expanded its workforce to support anticipated business growth and absorbed higher security wages. Selling and distribution expenses also nearly doubled to J$5.46Mn, bringing total operating expenses to J$142.37Mn, up 22.3%. Consequently, operating profit declined 21.6% to J$74.21Mn, with operating margin narrowing to 15.8% from 21.3%.
• Reflecting lower loan principal balances, borrowing costs fell (16.7%), providing some relief but could not reverse the earnings decline. Net profit margin contracted to 9.0% from 12.4%, with earnings per share declining to J$0.028 from J$0.036.
• Restoring earnings will require PTL to generate stronger sales from its expanded workforce while containing further cost increases. The Lubricants division’s momentum and improved gross margin provide a foundation for recovery, but revenue growth must accelerate sufficiently to absorb the higher operating cost base. Lower debt could provide further interest savings, although additional working-capital requirements or changes in borrowing rates could limit that benefit.
• PTL stock has declined 21.4% year-to-date, closing at J$0.99 on Wednesday, October 14, 2026. At its current price, PTL trades at a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 16.5x, which is below the Junior Market Distribution Sector average of 16.76x.

(Sources: Paramount Trading Ltd. & NCBCM Research)

• On October 12, 2026, Seprod Limited (SEP) advised that shareholders approved all three resolutions put to its virtual Extraordinary General Meeting (EGM). The resolutions increase the company's authorised share capital, subdivide each existing ordinary share into five, and authorise the Directors to issue shares from the unissued authorised share capital, including by way of an additional public offer.
• SEP's authorised share capital was increased from 1.00 billion to 1.90 billion ordinary shares through the creation of 900.00 million additional shares. Following the five-to-one subdivision, authorised share capital will become 9.50 billion ordinary shares, while issued share capital will rise to 4.55 billion shares from 910.95 million shares, based on the shares in issue at the date of the notice of meeting. The subdivision does not change any shareholder's proportionate interest in the company.
• The Directors are now authorised to allot and issue up to the whole of the unissued authorised share capital, whether through additional public offers, rights issues, private placements or as consideration for acquisitions. They are also allowed to apply the net proceeds as they see fit, including repaying debt across the group. However, the authority does not itself commit SEP to any share issue, and any additional public offer would require a prospectus registered with the Financial Services Commission as well as Jamaica Stock Exchange approval. The Directors will fix the record date for the subdivision, with the additional shares to be credited to shareholders' accounts in the ordinary course.
• Chief Executive Officer and Managing Director Richard Pandohie noted that the group has grown considerably through acquisitions over the last four years, with that growth funded in part by debt. He stated that the approvals give the company the ability to raise equity efficiently when the Board judges the time is right, accelerate the reduction of its borrowings, and redirect the cash currently used to service debt into integrating its acquired businesses and growing the group.
• For shareholders, the stock split is neutral in value terms, as each shareholder will hold five times as many shares at a proportionately lower price. However, the lower price per share could improve the stock's affordability and trading liquidity. The authority to issue new shares is more consequential, as any additional public offer or private placement would dilute existing shareholders who do not participate, particularly if the shares are priced at a discount. That said, using the proceeds to repay debt could lower finance costs and support earnings over time, partially offsetting the dilution. On balance, the impact on shareholders is mixed in the near term, with the final outcome depending on the size, pricing and use of proceeds of any future share issue.
• Year to date, SEP's stock has declined 4.8%, closing at J$79.86 on Wednesday, October 14, 2026. At this price, SEP trades at a P/E of 13.33x, in line with the Main Market Distribution & Manufacturing sector average of 13.33x.

(Sources: JSE & NCBCM Research)

• In its Article IV report released on October 8, the IMF urged Guyana to diversify beyond oil by strengthening human capital, expanding employment, addressing labour shortages and improving food security.
• Real GDP grew 19.3% in 2025 and is projected to expand a further 22.3% in 2026, while non-oil GDP is expected to grow 10.2% this year before averaging about 7% over the medium term.
• Inflation, which averaged 3.3% in 2025, is projected to rise to 4.1% in 2026 on higher global energy and food prices.
• Labour shortages were flagged as a key constraint, with oil-driven investment intensifying competition for workers, though the IMF did not quantify the shortfall or name the most affected occupations.
• The outlook remains highly favourable, with rising oil production expected to strengthen Guyana’s fiscal and external positions.
• Key risks include oil price volatility, overheating pressures and climate shocks, with the IMF calling for investment in sea defences, drainage and climate-resilient agriculture.

(Source: IMF)

• US consumer prices rose 0.6% month-over-month in September, accelerating from 0.4% in August, while annual inflation climbed to 3.7% from 3.4%, remaining above the Fed’s 2.0% target. The CPI report released on Wednesday, October 14, 2026, also showed price pressures broadening beyond energy, raising concerns that underlying inflation could be getting sticky.
• A 9.1% surge in gasoline prices accounted for more than half of the monthly increase in the CPI, as the US-Israeli war with Iran continued to drive energy costs higher. Other motor fuels, including diesel, jumped 11.9% in September and were 60.9% higher year-over-year. Food prices were unchanged during the month, while grocery prices edged down 0.1%.
• Excluding food and energy, core CPI rose 0.3% in September, above expectations for a 0.2% increase, while annual core inflation accelerated to 2.6% from 2.4%. Shelter costs rose 0.4%, airline fares increased 1.2% and overall services prices advanced 0.4%. Core goods prices also rose 0.3%, with increases in used vehicles, apparel and toys suggesting some continued tariff pass-through.
• The increase in the cost of living is also placing pressure on household purchasing power. Average hourly earnings declined 0.7% year-over-year in September after falling 0.3% in August, raising questions over whether consumers can sustain the recent pace of spending.
• Following the report, financial markets raised the probability of a Fed rate hike at the October 27–28 meeting to roughly 37% from about 22% before the data were released. The Fed raised its policy rate by 25 basis points in September to 3.75%–4.00%, its first increase in three years. Most economists still expect the Fed to hold rates this month and raise them again in December.
• The main concern for the Fed is that the inflation shock is no longer confined to energy. The stronger core reading and increases across services and goods suggest that higher fuel costs, tariffs and other supply pressures may be feeding into broader prices. This strengthens the case for keeping monetary policy restrictive and could increase the likelihood of further tightening if underlying inflation remains persistent.

(Source: Reuters)