• Despite higher topline growth, Jamaica Broilers Group Limited (JBG) reported a reduction in profits (-49.0%) for its first quarter ended August 1, 2026 (Q1 FY2026/27) relative to Q1 2025 due to higher administrative and operating expenses. However, the results signal its return to profitability following losses in each of the final three quarters of FY2025/2026 as the Group navigated its restructuring and divestment activities.
• Revenues increased 5.4% year over year (YoY) to J$19.29Bn, supported by strong demand for chicken products and fertile eggs across its operating markets, while net profit stood at J$813.38Mn, down from the restated J$1.60Bn profit from continuing operations in the previous corresponding quarter.
• Profitability from the Jamaican operations declined, with segment profit falling 14.1% YoY to J$1.80Bn, despite segment revenue holding broadly flat at J$14.70Bn. Higher depreciation charges, following the revaluation of land and buildings at the end of the prior financial year, were behind the softer segment results. That being said, management noted that demand for new products remains strong and the company will continue focusing on operational improvements for the financial year.
• The United States (U.S.) operations also remained profitable, but faced a more difficult operating environment following the sale of The Best Dressed Chicken, Inc. The segment generated revenues of J$5.80Bn, up 20.0% YoY, with external revenue (earned from customers outside the Group) rising 27% to J$4.60Bn. However, segment profit fell to J$557Mn from J$1.30Bn as the feed mill and hatchery operations operated at lower volumes without their former principal customer (the U.S. poultry business).
• Higher costs also took a bite out of Group profitability, as cost of sales increased 17.13% to J$14.53Bn, reducing gross profit 19.3% to J$4.77Bn and narrowing gross margin to 24.7% from 32.3%. Depreciation more than doubled to J$642Mn following the first full quarter of charges on revalued land and buildings, while administrative expenses increased by 8.6% to J$2.14Bn. Consequently, operating profits declined to J$1.84Bn (-44.8%), compressing margins to 9.5% from 18.2% in Q1 FY2025/2026.
• Finance costs also rose modestly (+2.2%), further dampening profit before taxation (-58.7% to J$1.05Bn), while net profit fell 49.0% to J$813.38Mn.
• Looking ahead, stronger margins and the return of its continuing operations to profitability provide a firmer foundation for FY2027. Nonetheless, the durability of the recovery will depend on sustained performance in Jamaica, the viability and refinancing of the remaining US operations, and tighter control of finance and tax costs. At the close of trading on September 29, 2026, JBG’s share price was J$14.31, representing a 16.8% decline year-to-date. At this level, the stock’s P/B of 0.73x is below the Main Market Distribution & Manufacturing sector average of 1.56x.

(Sources: JSE & NCBCM Research)

• Moody’s Ratings has completed a periodic review of the ratings of Barbados, keeping the sovereign’s B2 rating with a stable outlook after a rating committee held on September 17, 2026.
• Barbados’ credit profile continues to strengthen, supported by large primary surpluses, a declining government debt burden, improved market access and continued reform momentum under the Barbados Economic Recovery and Transformation (BERT) 2026 program and the new precautionary IMF Stand-By Arrangement (SBA). However, the improvement is not yet sufficiently broad-based or established to support a positive rating action at this review.
• Economic growth moderated in 2026 as tourism activity softened following the strong post-pandemic recovery. Real GDP growth slowed to 1.4% in the first half of 2026 from 2.8% in 2025, while stopover arrivals declined in the early part of the year. Nevertheless, visitor volumes remained above pre-pandemic levels, supporting tourism-related activity and foreign exchange earnings.
• The Government recorded a primary surplus of about 4.2% of GDP in FY2025/26, extending a multi-year record of surpluses above 4%, which helped reduce government debt to about 96% of GDP at end-March 2026, from above 100% previously. Debt is expected to fall to around 92% of GDP in FY2026/27 and roughly 75% by FY2030/31. The new 36-month precautionary IMF arrangement provides an additional policy anchor for fiscal discipline and for reforms to fiscal management, state-owned enterprises and resilience to natural disasters.
• Moody’s assessed Barbados’ economic strength at “ba2”^[1], balancing relatively high income levels and improved resilience against the economy’s very small scale, high openness and reliance on externally driven sectors. Institutions and governance strength was assessed at “ba1”, reflecting strong governance traditions and stronger fiscal institutions since 2019, partly offset by constrained administrative capacity and weak statistical systems.
• Fiscal strength was scored at “b2”, reflecting sustained debt reduction, stronger debt affordability and a lower share of foreign-currency debt, although the debt burden remains high. The country’s susceptibility to event risk was scored at “ba1”, reflecting exposure to external and climate-related shocks, balanced by adequate foreign exchange reserve buffers and renewed access to external capital markets.
• An upgrade could follow if continued fiscal consolidation and reforms reduce debt and improve affordability faster than expected, supported by stronger growth and competitiveness. Conversely, external shocks or weaker policy effectiveness that derail consolidation, reverse the debt trend or renew pressure on foreign-exchange reserves could prompt a downgrade.

(Source: Moody’s Ratings)

^[1] Moody’s scores each rating factor on a scale from “aaa” (strongest) to “ca” (weakest). Scores in the “ba” range sit just below investment grade and indicate speculative credit quality. Within that range, “ba1” is the highest score and “ba2” is the middle score. Barbados’ economic strength is therefore moderately weak, while its institutions and governance strength is one notch higher, just short of investment grade.

• Mexico’s exports rose by nearly 30% to US$549.40Bn in the January to August 2026 period, a record for the period, led by computer equipment. Growth was powered by a booming August, when exports reached a 40.4% annualized growth rate.
• The strong performance comes as Mexico pushes to raise regional content in its electronics exports, while President Claudia Sheinbaum said tariff talks with the US will continue this week.
• Meanwhile, the peso fell to 18 per US dollar on Monday as oil prices and concerns over the US Federal Reserve weighed on both currencies, just weeks after the return of the “super peso” had been proclaimed when it traded below 17.
• Last week, Banco de México held its benchmark rate at 6.50% for a third straight meeting, signaling a split from the Fed, even as the peso weakened toward its worst week since March.

(Source: Mexico News Daily)

• US consumer confidence fell 6.7 points to 81.9 in September 2026, its lowest level since April 2014, as households became more pessimistic about business and labour-market conditions over the next six months. Economists polled by Reuters expected the index to be 89.2.
• The deterioration in confidence was broad-based across political affiliation, age and income groups. Consumers increasingly cited prices, the high cost of goods and services, and oil and gas prices, as the Middle East conflict and higher interest rates continued to weigh on household sentiment.
• Consumers’ assessment of the labour market also weakened. The share of consumers saying jobs were “plentiful” fell to 23.6%, the lowest since February 2021, while those saying jobs were “hard to get” increased to 21.9%, the highest since January 2021. The Conference Board’s labour-market differential consequently narrowed to 1.7% from 4.2% in August.
• Separate Labour Department data showed job openings fell by 256,000 to 7.079Mn in August, below economists’ expectations of 7.225Mn. There were 1.01 job openings for every unemployed person, down from 1.06 in July and well below the roughly 2.0 ratio reached in 2022.
• Despite weaker labour demand, layoffs remained low and hiring has been relatively subdued rather than collapsing. This suggests employers remain cautious about expanding their workforces amid uncertainty, but are also not cutting jobs aggressively.
• Weaker consumer confidence and declining job openings point to softer labour demand and growing household caution. However, historically low layoffs suggest the labour market has not deteriorated sharply, allowing the Federal Reserve to continue prioritising inflation risks despite weaker sentiment. Against this backdrop, financial markets were pricing in a roughly 68.1% chance of another rate increase in October, according to CME’s FedWatch tool.

(Source: Reuters)

• Canada’s economy was unchanged in July 2026, in line with expectations and signalling a slower start to Q3 after three consecutive months of growth. The flat reading came just before a new set of US tariffs took effect in August.
• Activity in both goods-producing and services-producing industries was largely unchanged. Manufacturing declined 0.9%, its first decrease in four months, led by a 6.2% drop in petroleum refinery activity. Mining, quarrying and oil and gas extraction also fell 0.5% for a second consecutive month.
• The declines were largely offset by gains in utilities, which rose 1.7%, and construction, up 1.3%. Construction expanded for a fourth consecutive month.
• Among ​the services-producing industries, retail trade contracted 1.0% and wholesale trade declined 0.4%. Professional, scientific and technical services increased 0.3%, while real estate, rental and leasing rose 0.2%, with real estate expanding for a sixth consecutive month.
• Statistics Canada’s preliminary estimate points to a 0.2% increase in real GDP in August, supported mainly by higher output in mining and retail trade. The Bank of Canada currently forecasts 1.5% annualised growth in Q3 2026.
• Canada’s economy lost momentum at the start of Q3, with activity stalling in July after three consecutive monthly gains. While the preliminary August estimate points to a 0.2% rebound, the impact of new US tariffs remains a key downside risk to the outlook.

(Source: Reuters)

• The Bank of Jamaica’s (BOJ’s) Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) unanimously increased the policy rate by 50 basis points (bps) to 6.0% at its September 24–25, 2026 meetings, bringing the policy rate to levels last seen in April 2025. The hike takes effect today, September 29 and represents the first rate change since the BOJ cut rates in February of this year.
• The decision was in response to a deterioration in the inflation outlook since the previous meeting, as escalating tensions in the Middle East and the Russia-Ukraine conflict have contributed to persistently high international commodity prices. Worsening El Niño conditions have also placed further pressure on domestic agricultural prices, exacerbating inflationary pressures. Considering these factors, the MPC judged that tighter policy was necessary to limit second-round effects and prevent elevated inflation from becoming embedded in expectations.
• Headline inflation accelerated to 7.9% in August 2026, from 7.5% in July and 1.2% in August 2025, marking the third consecutive month above the upper end of the BOJ’s 4.0%–6.0% target range. The increase was primarily driven by higher agricultural prices following drought conditions and reduced crop yields, particularly for vegetables, alongside the pass-through of higher international commodity prices to domestic energy costs. Core inflation, which excludes agricultural food products and fuel, remained at 5.2%, unchanged from July but above the 4.2% recorded a year earlier, with the BOJ noting emerging, although still limited, second-round effects on processed food and selected services.
• The BOJ now expects inflation to continue rising in the near term before returning to the target range by mid-2027. This, however, is hinged on the duration of geopolitical conflicts. Higher international commodity prices are expected to continue feeding into domestic energy and transportation costs, while worsening El Niño conditions could cause agricultural prices to rise further. Inflationary pressures could also be reinforced by increased domestic demand associated with the Government of Jamaica’s recovery spending and the normalisation of activity following Hurricane Melissa. The MPC’s latest assessment therefore represents a less favourable near-term inflation outlook than at its August meeting.
• Inflation risks over the next eight quarters remain skewed to the upside, with rising expectations adding to concerns over more persistent price pressures. Businesses’ 12-month inflation expectations increased to 7.3% in July from 6.7% in June, while indicating likely wage pressure in the economy. Furthermore, the MPC also highlighted higher agricultural prices and stronger-than-expected domestic spending as key risks. More prolonged geopolitical tensions could further increase the pass-through of international commodity prices into domestic inflation, although weaker consumer purchasing power could partially offset these pressures by reducing demand.
• Despite the more restrictive policy stance, Jamaica’s healthy international reserves and relatively stable foreign exchange (FX) rate continue to provide an important buffer against external shocks. The MPC noted that global financial conditions have tightened faster than previously projected, including the Federal Reserve’s 25bps increase in September to 3.75%–4.00%. However, adequate reserves should continue to support FX market stability and limit the extent of imported inflation. Against this backdrop, the BOJ noted that it remains prepared to deploy additional policy tools if necessary to contain second-round inflation pressures and return inflation to target.

(Sources: JSE & NCBCM Research)

• Scotia Group Jamaica Limited (SGJL) announced on September 29, 2026, that the consideration under its proposed privatization Scheme has been increased from JMD$61.50 per stock unit to JMD$75.00 per stock unit, a 21.95% increase. The revised offer follows SGJL’s strong second- and third-quarter results and the receipt of an improved proposal from its majority shareholder, Scotiabank Caribbean Holdings Limited (SCHL), to increase the purchase price under the previously announced privatisation transaction. SCHL currently owns 71.78% of SGJL’s issued and outstanding shares.
• The revised purchase price of J$75.00 per share represents a premium of approximately 38% to the thirty-day volume-weighted average trading price of SGJL shares on the Jamaica Stock Exchange (JSE) as at June 11, 2026, the last trading day prior to the original transaction announcement, and a 27% premium to SGJL’s closing price of J$59.00 on September 28, 2026.
• The terms and conditions of the arrangement agreement otherwise remain unchanged. Some large institutional shareholders have also entered into voting support arrangements in favour of the transaction at the increased price, collectively representing 21.12% of the minority shareholding. The transaction will continue to be undertaken by way of a court-approved Scheme of Arrangement under the Companies Act, 2004. The Supreme Court of Jamaica’s Commercial Division granted SGJL permission on July 15, 2026, to convene the scheme meetings. The meeting of minority SGJL shareholders is scheduled for October 7, 2026, at 11:00 a.m. at the AC Marriott in Kingston.
• If approved, the transaction is expected to close in the fourth calendar quarter of 2026, subject to court approval and other customary closing conditions. Shareholders will continue to have the option to receive payment in either Jamaican or United States dollars, based on the Bank of Jamaica’s (BOJ’s) weighted average selling rate three days before the settlement date.
• According to Management, the increased offer follows strong operating performance by SGJL. The company reported net income of J$10.08Bn for the six months ended April 30, 2026, up 9.5% from J$9.21Bn a year earlier. This was supported by total revenues excluding expected credit losses increasing 11.1% to J$37.1Bn.
• SGJL has demonstrated a strong long-term earnings trajectory, with net profit attributable to stockholders increasing from J$11.3Bn in 2016 to J$19.9Bn in 2025, representing a 6.5% Compound Annual Growth Rate (CAGR), despite the disruption caused by the COVID-19 pandemic.
• Following a decline to J$8.64Bn in 2021, earnings recovered to a record J$20.2Bn in 2024 before easing marginally by 1.3% to J$19.9Bn in 2025. The recovery was supported by balance-sheet expansion, with deposits increasing 33.4% between 2022 and 2025 to J$529.8Bn and performing loans rising from J$230.6Bn to J$345.6Bn, while net interest income increased from J$30.6Bn to J$50.0Bn over the same period.

(Sources: Scotia Group Jamaica Limited, JSE & NCBCM Research)

• Shareholders of EduFocal Limited (LEARN), at the Annual General Meeting (AGM) held on September 10, 2026, and the Reconvened AGM held on September 25, 2026, approved the company’s proposed name change to Walstron Limited. Approval was also given for an expansion of its corporate mandate beyond education technology to include technology, commerce, properties and real estate. The change reflects management’s broader growth strategy, which will allow EduFocal to remain as an operating brand while the company develops additional business activities.
• The broader corporate strategy comes as EduFocal seeks to address significant balance-sheet pressures through a two-part recapitalisation. The first component is a proposed land-for-shares transaction, under which EduFocal would acquire land assets in exchange for newly issued shares. The transaction is at an advanced stage, with execution expected in the fourth quarter of the financial year ending December 31, 2026 (Q4 2026), subject to final documentation and regulatory approvals.
• The second component involves a restructuring of the company’s debt, including the conversion of a portion of its liabilities into equity, with both measures intended to strengthen shareholders’ equity and reduce finance costs.
• The debt restructuring is expected to reduce the interest burden, while the land transaction would add tangible assets to a balance sheet currently dominated by intangible assets.
• The financial pressures behind the recapitalisation was evident in EduFocal’s H1 2026 results. Revenues for the first half of the year (H1 2026) fell 55.1% year-over-year (YoY) to J$19.37Mn and the company recorded a J$4.03Mn net loss for H1 FY2026 compared with a J$0.82Mn loss in H1 2025. Management therefore views the planned debt restructuring as central to improving the company’s performance.
• The company’s broader financial pressures are also evident in its balance sheet, which remains heavily constrained by debt and accumulated losses, highlighting the importance of the planned recapitalisation. As at June 30, 2026, cash stood at just J$0.1Mn while current liabilities amounted to J$214.4Mn, significantly exceeding current assets of J$45.5Mn. Total borrowings amounted to J$261.7Mn at the end of FY2025, while shareholders’ equity remained negative at J$166.9Mn.
• LEARN’s share price has declined since the start of the year to close at $0.16 (-42.9%) on September 28, 2026. The company reported negative earnings and negative shareholders' equity, resulting in negative P/B and P/E multiples and limiting the usefulness of traditional valuation metrics.

(Sources: JSE & NCBCM Research)

• Guyana’s next phase of natural gas development will depend on securing major buyers and establishing a clear roadmap for new industries, according to ExxonMobil Guyana President Alistair Routledge. Speaking at the Georgetown Chamber of Commerce and Industry (GCCI) energy luncheon, Routledge said ExxonMobil and the government are working to align offshore gas supply with potential industrial demand, infrastructure requirements and onshore investment opportunities.
• Routledge noted that developing a larger gas market requires offshore production, pipelines, industrial facilities and customers to be ready within the same timeframe. Unlike oil, which can be stored and transported relatively easily, natural gas requires specialised infrastructure and customers able to receive it as production begins. Investors also need certainty of supply before committing capital, while ExxonMobil needs sufficient demand to justify the associated pipelines and infrastructure.
• Routledge identified data centres, alumina smelting and additional power generation as potential sources of demand, adding that technical requirements also determine the minimum volumes of gas that must flow through a pipeline. The discussions form part of Guyana’s efforts to expand gas development beyond the Gas-to-Energy project at Wales, West Bank Demerara, which is intended to supply gas from the offshore Liza field to a 300-megawatt power plant and a natural gas liquids processing facility.
• The government plans to establish a second gas pipeline and industrial park in Berbice to support energy-intensive industries, including alumina processing, fertiliser production and data centres. ExxonMobil has estimated that the pipeline could cost US$2.00Bn or more. Routledge called for greater clarity on where facilities will be built, the land required and the location of supporting infrastructure, including port facilities, as well as the fiscal arrangements that would govern investments.
• He also emphasised the benefits of using Guyana’s natural gas domestically rather than focusing solely on exports, noting that exporting liquefied natural gas (LNG) would retain very little value in the country beyond the sale of gas. Bringing gas ashore, he argued, could generate more jobs, attract additional investment and support economic diversification through manufacturing and other industries. He identified the GCCI, the Private Sector Commission and other chambers as important partners in helping investors find local suppliers and business partners.
• The comments suggest that Guyana’s gas ambitions will depend less on resource availability than on coordinating demand, infrastructure and policy. Securing anchor buyers and clarifying the industrial and fiscal framework for the Berbice project will therefore be key to capturing more domestic value from the country’s gas resources. If realised, a gas-based industrial sector could broaden Guyana’s economy beyond crude oil exports, lower electricity costs for households and businesses, and create more skilled jobs and opportunities for local suppliers. Greater diversification would also reduce the economy’s sensitivity to oil price swings and support more balanced long-term growth. However, delays in aligning demand, infrastructure and fiscal terms could leave much of this value unrealised and reinforce the country’s reliance on oil revenues.

(Sources: OilNOW & NCBCM Research)

• Brazil’s annual inflation rate rose to 4.47% in the period to mid-September 2026, up from 4.24% a month earlier and above both the central bank’s 3.00% inflation target and the 4.30% median estimate of economists polled by Reuters, according to the Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics (IBGE).
• On a monthly basis, consumer prices increased by 0.70%, reversing a 0.40% decline in mid-August 2026 and exceeding the 0.53% median forecast. Housing costs were the main driver, rising by 2.07% as electricity prices moved higher, while food and beverage prices rose by 0.4%. Annual inflation remained within the central bank’s target range of 3.0%, plus or minus 1.5 percentage points.
• Earlier this month, the central bank lowered the benchmark Selic rate by 25 basis points to 13.75%, its fifth consecutive cut, citing signs of an economic slowdown. At that meeting, the bank kept its options open ahead of next month’s presidential election, in which inflation has become a central campaign issue as leftist President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva seeks re-election in a tight race against right-wing Senator Flavio Bolsonaro.
• The stronger-than-expected reading adds to concerns about persistent price pressures as the central bank weighs its next steps.

(Source: Reuters)