- The Bahamian Ministry of Finance (MOF), in its second quarter (Q2) fiscal performance report, said revenue expanded by $54.4Mn compared to the same period last year. The government’s overall fiscal performance for the second quarter of FY2025/26 benefited from an improvement in revenue performance, when compared with the comparative period in the prior year.
- Tax revenue expanded, year-over-year, by 4.2% to $1,345.9Mn, for 39.1% of the budget. Improved economic conditions, alongside strengthened tax administration measures, supported gains in value-added tax collections ($76.1Mn), taxes on use and permission to use goods ($4.5Mn), and specific gaming taxes ($1.3Mn). In a significant offset, taxes on international trade and transactions declined by $18.4Mn. Non-tax revenue also grew by $11.4Mn (7.6%) to $160.7Mn, largely reflecting a $14.4Mn upturn in receipts from the sale of goods and services.
- That said, aggregate expenditure increased by $41.3Mn (2.3%) to $1,850.0Mn (48.4% of the budget), with the recurrent and capital components at $1,658.3Mn and $191.7Mn, respectively. Higher spending for compensation of employees ($21.0Mn), other payments ($19.9Mn) and subsidies ($10.2Mn) were the primary drivers of the rise in recurrent expenditure. Nevertheless, capital expenditure decreased modestly by $0.9Mn (0.5%) to $191.7Mn, 51.0% of the budget. Higher capital transfers of $5.8Mn (22.3%) were offset by a $6.7Mn (4.0%) decrease in outlays for acquisition of non-financial assets.
- As a result of these developments, the fiscal deficit for Q2 narrowed by 6.9% to $342.4Mn, equivalent to an estimated 2.1% of gross domestic product (GDP). Consequently, the government’s overall fiscal position for January 2026 shifted to an estimated surplus of $4.3Mn from a $3.1Mn deficit in the prior year. Financing activities for the month featured an estimated decrease in the outstanding debt stock by $17.7Mn.
- The government of the Bahamas’ economic agenda centres on gradual fiscal consolidation, energy sector reform and supply-side improvements to alleviate capacity constraints in the tourism sector. The near-term fiscal strategy is built around three pillars: continued expenditure discipline, revenue enhancement through existing tax administration improvements and the collection of new revenues from the Domestic Minimum Top-Up Tax (DMTT)1. It has the medium-term goal of reducing public debt to 50% of GDP by FY2030/31.
- With this in mind, the Bahamas’ fiscal deficit is expected to remain at less than 1% of GDP over the coming years. Central government debt will also continue its gradual decline from a peak of around 91% of GDP in FY2020/21, reaching an estimated 70.7% in 2026 and 63.0% by 2030.
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1The DMTT, enacted in November 2024 under the OECD’s Pillar Two framework, applies a 15% minimum effective tax rate to large multinational enterprise groups and is expected to yield approximately 0.7% of GDP from FY2025/26. Collection of this revenue is a fiscal priority, and the government is working to secure transitional ‘qualified’ status with the OECD Inclusive Framework to protect its implementation.
(Sources: The Nassau Guardian & BMI, A Fitch Solutions Company)