• The Jamaican economy is expected to contract by 1.8% in 2026, revised up from the previous 2.3% contraction, given widespread damage to Jamaica's productive and tourism sectors due to Hurricane Melissa.
• While the quarterly economic contraction of 7.1% in Q4 2025 was smaller than initially feared, the economy is projected to decline through Q3 2026 before returning to growth in Q4 2026. The projection for full year contraction is based on higher-frequency indicators that are pointing to continued weakness in production, with bauxite output (-33.8% y-o-y) and airport arrivals (-36.0%) showing continued softness in January 2026, following a weak Q4 2025. Fourth quarter growth is expected to be driven by ongoing recovery efforts and favourable base effects.
• BMI Analysts also note that ongoing global uncertainty from the Iran-Israel-US war and surging energy prices present risks to inflation and growth, potentially complicating recovery efforts through increased fiscal pressure. This considers that rising fuel costs impact inbound tourism through higher travel costs and subdued US demand impacts Jamaica’s US-dependent export profile.
• That said, given the less-severe-than-expected contraction in Q4 2025, the 2026 GDP contraction is expected to be similarly less severe than originally projected. This view is underpinned by several factors, including the fact that inflation has remained stable heading into 2026, with February’s outturn at 3.9%, below the lower bound of the BoJ's target. Moreover, the unemployment rate is expected to remain low, with the most recent Q1 2026 reading coming in at 3.6%. Lastly, the Bank of Jamaica's decision to ease monetary policy in February, coupled with increased fiscal stimulus, is anticipated to underpin recovery efforts and support a return to GDP growth.
• Risks to the outlook remain tilted towards weaker growth. The continued threat of serious storms endangers ongoing recovery efforts and the country's near- and medium-term growth outlook, especially if another hurricane hits the island. Furthermore, uncertainty surrounding the Iran-Israel-US war and the duration of the ongoing energy price shock also present downside risks to Jamaica's growth and recovery outlook.

(Source: BMI, A Fitch Solutions Company)

• On March 31, 2026, the Jamaica Stock Exchange officially launched its secondary market for Government of Jamaica (GOJ) securities at the Bank of Jamaica Auditorium, marking the realisation of a vision over two decades in the making.
• The platform introduces a domestic yield curve, enhances portfolio flexibility, enables true price discovery, and promotes greater transparency, efficiency, and inclusiveness in the trading of government securities.
• The Bank of Jamaica’s Governor Richard Byles noted the platform's broader implications, including support for monetary policy assessments and enabling insurance sector professionals to derive yield curves and discount rates compliant with IFRS 17 standards, while affirming the central bank's commitment to financial modernisation.
• Keynote Speaker and Minister of Finance Hon. Fayval Williams underscored the platform's fiscal impact, noting that the development of Jamaica's domestic yield curve is expected to gradually reduce interest rates, with even a 1.0% reduction potentially saving the government billions of dollars in debt servicing costs.

(Source: JSE)

• The African Export-Import Bank has approved a $10Bn Gulf Crisis Response Programme (GCRP) to shield African and Caribbean economies, as well as their banks and companies, from the severe economic shocks triggered by the conflict in the Middle East.
• The conflict, which escalated on February 28, 2026, has sent shockwaves through the global economy. Given the significance of the Gulf region as a primary global source of oil, Liquid Nitrogen Gas (LNG), fertilisers, as well as the critical role of the Strait of Hormuz, the outbreak has triggered wider repercussions at a global scale, including adversely affecting African and CARICOM economies. 
• The support programme is designed to sustain essential imports, including fuel, LNG, food, fertiliser, and pharmaceuticals, by providing short-term foreign exchange (FX) and liquidity to support vulnerable member states, particularly those highly dependent on imports and exposed to shipping route disruptions such as the Strait of Hormuz.
• It also aims to help African energy and minerals exporters capitalise on elevated prices and rerouted trade flows by scaling productive capacity in strategic commodities, through pre-export finance, working capital support, and inventory financing.
• Further, it will provide short-term relief to African and Caribbean member states whose tourism and aviation industries have been adversely impacted, including spillovers from weaker global travel demand and higher operating costs linked to fuel price increases.
• The programme is also designed to build the medium- to long-term resilience of economies against future shocks by accelerating the completion of critical energy, port, and logistics infrastructure projects in African and Caribbean member states delayed by the conflict, while also supporting broader efforts to strengthen trade resilience and diversify supply chains.

(Sources: Reuters & Afreximbank)

• Recent confirmations from Minister of Finance, Ryan Straughn, that Barbados has successfully cleared all international financial watchlists, are being hailed by industry leaders as a monumental victory for the nation’s reputation.
• While the government celebrates this “clean slate”, economic experts and private sector leaders believe the island will reap immediate tangible benefits after being removed from the “grey lists” of the Financial Action Task Force (FATF) and the European Union.
• Director and Senior Research Fellow of the Sir Arthur Lewis Institute of Social and Economic Studies, Professor, Dr Don Marshall, maintains that the benefits of this status are felt almost immediately within the economy, primarily through the stabilisation of existing business and the attraction of new foreign investment.
• While the removal has been a progressive process since last year, the cumulative effect is a significant reduction in “friction” for cross-border trade, noted Carmel Haynes, executive director of the Barbados International Business Association (BIBA). For the private sector, the removal from these lists translates to a direct reduction in the cost and complexity of daily operations, with enhanced due diligence by international financial institutions previously increasing the cost of doing business.
• ​The delisting meaningfully improves Barbados’ investment case in the near term, particularly by lowering transaction frictions and supporting FX inflows. Its durability will depend on sustained enforcement capacity. To ensure Barbados does not find itself back on a watchlist in the coming years, Haynes stressed that the government has moved from simply passing laws to active, technology-driven enforcement. ​“They’ve brought in new technological systems for reporting and recording, and they’ve increased penalties… to ensure that the sector is better regulated.”

 (Source: Barbados Today)

• U.S. job growth rebounded more than expected in March as a strike by healthcare workers ended and temperatures warmed up, but downside risks for the labour market are mounting from a war with Iran that has no clear end in sight. The biggest increase in nonfarm payrolls in 15 months, ​and also the largest since President Donald Trump returned to the White House, followed a sharp decline in February, the Labour Department's closely watched employment report showed on Friday.
• Nonetheless, the rebound exaggerates the labour market's health. The ‌average workweek was shorter last month, and annual wage growth increased at its slowest pace in nearly five years. While the unemployment rate fell to 4.3% from 4.4% in February, that was because 396,000 people dropped out of the labour force, more than offsetting weakness in household employment. The labour force participation rate fell below 62% for the first time since the COVID-19 pandemic.
• Nonfarm payrolls increased by 178,000 jobs last month, the most since December 2024, after a downwardly revised 133,000 drop in February, the Labour Department's Bureau of Labour Statistics said. Economists polled by Reuters ​had forecast payrolls rising by 60,000 jobs after a previously reported 92,000 decrease in February.
• Estimates ranged from a loss of 25,000 positions to a gain of 125,000 jobs. The economy has experienced ⁠months of positive and negative payrolls since May last year, with volatility intensifying this year. Economists attributed some of the choppiness to the birth-death model, which the government uses to estimate how many jobs were gained or lost because of companies opening or closing in ​a given month. Others blamed uncertainty related to Trump's sweeping import tariffs, which have since been struck down by the U.S. Supreme Court. Trump, however, responded by imposing a global tariff for up to 150 days.
• March's employment report likely has no impact on the interest rate outlook, with the effects of supply chain disruptions from the conflict still to work their way through the economy. The odds of a rate cut this year have greatly diminished. The Federal Reserve left its benchmark overnight interest rate in the 3.50% to 3.75% range last month.

(Source: Reuters)

• The euro zone's private sector expansion weakened sharply in March as the Middle East war drove up energy costs and disrupted supply chains, with overall demand - ​a key gauge for economic health - falling for the first time in ‌eight months.
• The S&P Global euro zone Composite Purchasing Managers' Index fell to 50.7 in March from 51.9 in February but was slightly higher than a preliminary estimate of ​50.5. PMI readings above 50.0 indicate growth in activity.
• The encouraging signs of growth seen earlier in the year have been eradicated thanks ​to surging energy prices, choked supply chains, financial market volatility and a renewed downturn ​in demand, Williamson added.
• Services activity barely rose, with the business activity index sliding to 50.2 from ‌51.9 ⁠in February - its weakest reading in 10 months. Manufacturing output growth remained solid.
• Employment declined while business confidence dropped, raising concerns ​about future hiring and ​investment. Input cost inflation ⁠surged to its highest in slightly more than three years, with manufacturing seeing a record one-month jump. Firms raised prices charged to ​customers at the fastest pace since February 2024, though the ​increase was ⁠more modest than the spike in their own costs.
• Headline inflation in the bloc jumped above the European Central Bank’s 2% target last month, hitting 2.5% from 1.9% as soaring oil and ⁠gas prices ​intensified the dilemma between safeguarding growth and curbing ​inflation.

(Source: Reuters)

• Given the extensive damage caused by Hurricane Melissa, the Jamaican economy contracted by a steep 7.1% in the fourth quarter of 2025 (Q4 2025) compared to Q4 2024, according to data from the Statistical Institute of Jamaica (STATIN). With both the extent of the destruction and the disruptions to business activity, both the Goods-Producing and Services industries contracted, falling by 10.7% and 5.9%, respectively.
• In the Goods-Producing sector, all industries contracted. Agriculture, Forestry, and Fishing were among the hardest hit, declining by 17.7%, as the hurricane destroyed both crops and livestock. Its impact on the western end of the island caused lower crop yields, delayed planting schedules, and the loss of livestock intended for slaughter during the period. Mining and Quarrying experienced the steepest contraction of 37.5% as hurricane-related damage to equipment and infrastructure caused downtime and lost production days. Manufacturing and Construction also contracted by 8.1% and 2.5%, respectively, reflecting both direct and indirect effects of the storm.
• Within the Services sector, most industries experienced declines. Accommodation and Food Services contracted by 31.0%, as hotel closures in the western parishes coincided with a 43.0% decline in foreign arrivals to the island. Transport and Storage declined by 7.5%, reflecting reduced airport activity and lower tourism-related travel. Additionally, Electricity, Water Supply, and Waste Management fell by 11.7% due to damage to the electricity grid, which also disrupted water supply across affected areas, while Information and Communication fell by 12.6%. Other industries, including Wholesale and Retail Trade, Repair and Installation of Machinery and Equipment, Real Estate and Business Activities, and Education, Health, and Other Services, declined by 2.2%, 3.5%, and 6.8%, respectively. Financial and Insurance Activities (+1.4%) and Public Administration and Defence (+2.2%) were the only exceptions.
• Compared to the previous quarter (July–September 2025), total value added at constant prices (seasonally adjusted) fell by 7.3%. Services and Goods-Producing Industries declined by 6.2% and 10.5%, respectively.
• Despite the disruptions in economic activity in the final quarter of the year, preliminary estimates indicate that for the full calendar year 2025, total real-value-added increased marginally by 0.1%, supported by modest growth of 1.2% in the Goods-Producing sector.
• Looking ahead, the Bank of Jamaica (BOJ) expects economic recovery in 2026 as reconstruction efforts from Hurricane Melissa advance and tourism-related activity, particularly in the western parishes, resumes. The Central Bank projects that real GDP will expand within the range of 1.0% to 3.0% for fiscal year 2026/27. However, downside risks persist, particularly related to the potential adverse impact of the conflict in the Middle East on global energy prices, consumer disposable incomes, production costs and sentiment on key service industries such as the Tourism sector.

(Sources: JSE & NCBCM Research)

• The Government of Jamaica (GOJ) is intensifying its push to revitalise the country’s manufacturing industry. The GOJ expects to achieve this through targeted incentives and policy reforms aimed at boosting investment, enhancing competitiveness, and reducing reliance on imports.
• Central to this effort is a range of initiatives designed to lower production costs and encourage expansion. Among them is the Productive Input Relief (PIR) programme, which allows approved manufacturers to import raw materials, machinery, and intermediate goods duty-free, while benefiting from reduced administrative fees and tax deferrals.
• The recently introduced Accelerated Capital Allowance regime is also playing a key role, enabling businesses to write off capital investments more quickly. This measure is expected to improve cash flow and support companies in upgrading equipment, expanding operations, and increasing productivity.
• While acknowledging ongoing challenges such as high energy costs, limited access to financing, labour shortages, and regulatory inefficiencies, State Minister in the Ministry of Industry, Investment and Commerce, Hon. Delano Seiveright, said: “the Government continues to work across ministries and agencies to address these constraints and create a more enabling environment for manufacturers”.
• This policy direction, he shared, “is already supporting private-sector growth and expansion”, as demonstrated by the recent opening of the SEEK Factory and Warehouse Hub by Stationery & Office Supplies Limited (SOS) in Kingston. SOS, which is listed on the Junior Market of the Jamaica Stock Exchange, generated approximately J$1.8Bn in revenue in 2024 and has long served as a key supplier to businesses, educational institutions, and government entities across the island.
• The newly unveiled facility represents an investment of J$185Mn and is expected to significantly boost production capacity by 300%. This expansion is being driven by the integration of automated bookmaking technology and streamlined end-to-end operations. The State Minister further highlighted the development as a strong example of how strategic investments, supported by Government policy, can enhance local manufacturing capabilities and position Jamaican companies for greater growth.

(Source: JIS)

• Gasoline import costs in Guyana surged by 38.5% between February 22 and March 17, 2026, according to the Guyana Energy Agency (GEA).
• The increase reflects the country’s high exposure to global refined fuel markets despite its status as a crude oil producer. Benchmarks like Brent are above US$100 per barrel, owing to the US–Iran conflict, causing higher crude prices, tighter global inventories, and rising shipping costs.
• Guyana’s inability to refine crude domestically means it remains fully dependent on imported gasoline, with domestic fuel prices closely tracking international benchmarks. It also limits the extent to which the country can insulate its economy from global price volatility.
• With projections suggesting crude prices could remain above ~US$95 per barrel and potentially spike higher under escalation scenarios, the country faces continued upward pressure on fuel import costs and inflation.
• From a sovereign perspective, higher import costs could widen the current account deficit (outside of oil exports) and increase fiscal pressures, particularly as the government absorbs part of the shock through policy measures.
• The government has maintained a 0% excise tax on fuel since 2022. It was reaffirmed in the 2026 Budget, providing short-term relief to consumers. However, it represents a foregone revenue stream, which may constrain fiscal flexibility if elevated prices persist.
• While rising crude prices support Guyana’s oil export revenues, the mismatch between crude exports and refined product imports underscores a structural gap in the energy value chain. This leaves the sovereign partially exposed to both positive (export windfall) and negative (import cost inflation) oil price effects.
• Overall, the development presents a mixed credit impact: positive via stronger oil revenues, but offset by imported inflation, fiscal trade-offs, and external vulnerability to global energy market disruptions.

(Source: OIL Now)

• Passenger traffic through Lynden Pindling International Airport (LPIA¹) in the Bahamas is projected at 80,000–85,000 over the Easter weekend, slightly above the 79,222 recorded in 2025. This growth would continue a longer-term upward trend that saw volumes reach 3.99 million in 2019 and a record 4.06 million in 2024.
• The expectations are supported by strong airlift, coordinated destination marketing, and 2,658 aircraft movements recorded during the same Easter period last year.
• The projected Easter surge signals resilient short-term demand and continued post-pandemic normalisation, reinforcing The Bahamas' competitiveness as a premium Caribbean destination.
• LPIA functions as the central node in The Bahamas' tourism value chain, directly facilitating high-spending stopover visitors who contribute significantly to hotel occupancy, employment, and domestic consumption. This makes passenger throughput a leading indicator of tourism sector performance with direct spillovers into GDP growth, foreign exchange earnings, and government revenues via VAT, departure taxes, and tourism-related activity.
• Operated by Nassau Airport Development Company (NAD) under a public-private partnership model, LPIA benefited from a US$409 million redevelopment in 2013 alongside Vantage Group. This expanded capacity and improved passenger processing, thus positioning it as a regional aviation hub. As NAD marks 19 years of managing the gateway, the milestone reflects sustained institutional capacity, with focus now on efficiency and passenger experience ahead of its 20th anniversary in 2027.

________________________

¹Lynden Pindling International Airport (LPIA) is the primary international gateway to The Bahamas, handling the majority of stopover air arrivals from the United States, Canada, and Europe, making it systemically important to tourism flows and foreign exchange generation.

(Source: EW News)