• Despite an increase in topline growth, Knutsford Express Services Limited (KEX) reported a marginal decline (0.5%) in earnings to J$66.38Mn for the first quarter ending August 31, 2025 (Q1 FY 2025/2026), owing to higher operating expenses.
• Revenues grew by 9.1% in Q1 2025/2026, moving from J$549.71Mn to J$599.71Mn. Growth was driven by strong demand for KEX’s core business of islandwide passenger services between 16 locations, courier services over 19 locations, along with revenues from its Drax Hall Business Centre and Café.
• However, the company grappled with cost pressures, as administrative and general expenses rose by 11.2% to $501.33Mn. These higher operating expenses reflected an increase in KEX’s workforce to meet increasing customer demand across its expanding product and service lines of business, along with the addition of five new coaches.
• With higher expenses outpacing revenue growth (+9.1%), KEX’s operating profit fell by 0.5% to $98.38Mn. That said, profit before taxation rose slightly by 2.3% in the first quarter, from J$82.39Mn to J$84.26Mn, as the growth in finance income (+109.4%) outpaced higher finance costs (+0.6%). Still, net earnings were tempered by the 14.1% increase in tax expenses. Consequently, net profit margins moved from 12.1% to 11.1%.
• Despite the falloff in earnings, management pointed out that its investment in the Knutsford Express Business Centre in Drax Hall, St. Ann, has already exceeded expectations, as the rapid expansion of the area known as “Greater Ocho Rios” has established a commercial hub of activity for the area.
• While KEX expects continued growth from this location, the company is also pursuing other opportunities for synergistic benefits to its core transportation business, courier and logistics for other locations across the island. Notwithstanding, KEX is likely to face increased competition from the JUTC given the company’s expansion of routes from Mandeville to Kingston and from Montego Bay to Kingston.
• At the close of market on Thursday, October 16, 2025, KEX’s stock price has depreciated by 8.2% year-to-date to $13.00. It currently trades at a P/E of 27.62x, above the Junior Market Other Average of 17.30x.

(Sources: KEX Financial Release and NCBCM Research)

• Jamaica is projecting to welcome 4.3 million visitors for 2025, which is expected to generate US$4.6Bn in revenues. Providing an update on the sector during this week's sitting of the House of Representatives, Minister of Tourism, Hon. Edmund Bartlett, said as the world rediscovers travel, Jamaica stands ready, not just to welcome visitors but to lead the region into a new era of sustainable growth.
• “We are projecting 4.3 million visitor arrivals for 2025, a 2.7% increase over 2024 and earnings of US$4.6Bn, representing 7.1% growth year-on-year,” he said. He indicated that for the upcoming Winter 2025/26 season, stopover arrivals are expected to increase by 6.9%, cruise arrivals by 24.3% and gross earnings by eight per cent, reaching US$1.7Bn.
• Mr Bartlett said the sector’s performance puts Jamaica on track to achieve five million visitors and US$5Bn in earnings within five years, as well as increase its projected targets. “With this trajectory, Jamaica is firmly on course to achieve our 5x5x5 Mission - five million visitors and US$5 billion in earnings within the five-year period - which started in 2020, notwithstanding COVID and Hurricane Beryl. The new Key Performance Indicator (KPI) for tourism will be “5x8x10” Strategy: that is to achieve eight million visitors, earning US$10Bn by 2030,” he noted.
• He said this vision reflects confidence, not just in numbers but in people, creativity, hospitality, and resilience that define Brand Jamaica. “Our marketing focus is expanding beyond traditional markets to embrace new frontiers in Latin America, the Middle East, and Asia, supported by enhanced airlift, digital innovation, and strategic partnerships that ensure Jamaica remains top of mind for global travellers,” the Minister said.
• While Jamaica’s tourist arrivals have been recovering from the COVID-induced downturn, it has yet to reach its 2018 peak. Arrivals stood at 97% of 2018 levels in 2023 and 96% in 2024. Furthermore, Jamaica’s tourist arrivals are down 4.9% to 2.2Mn for the first half of 2025 (H1 2025), which industry stakeholders are attributing to recent shifts in immigration policy.

(Sources: JIS & NCBCM Research)

• Suriname is rapidly establishing itself as a major offshore oil and gas player in the Caribbean, with multiple deepwater discoveries and growing international investment positioning the nation as the region’s next upstream growth center.
• Recent exploration success has confirmed estimated recoverable resources of 2.4Bn barrels of oil equivalent (boe) and 12.5Tn cubic feet of natural gas, primarily within Suriname’s portion of the Guyana–Suriname basin. At least ten new wells are expected to be drilled offshore between 2025 and 2027, underscoring accelerating exploration and appraisal activity.
• The Block 58 development, operated by TotalEnergies with partner APA Corporation, anchors Suriname’s emergence. Following a series of discoveries between 2020 and 2022, including Maka Central, Sapakara South, and Krabdagu, the partners sanctioned the GranMorgu project, which is expected to deliver its first oil in 2028. The field, with estimated reserves of approximately 750Mn barrels, represents the largest industrial investment in Suriname’s history and will feature an all-electric FPSO designed for reduced emissions and zero routine flaring.
• Further north, Petronas’ Block 52 continues to advance with discoveries at Sloanea, Roystonea, and Fusaea, indicating commercial potential across a broader portion of the basin. Evaluation work is underway to assess tie-back options and development synergies with adjacent fields.
• In Block 53, TotalEnergies recently acquired a 25% stake alongside APA and Petronas, reinforcing long-term confidence in Suriname’s offshore potential. The Baja-1 discovery, located near the GranMorgu area, could provide additional production flexibility and extend field life across connected assets.
• Together, these projects outline a path toward sustained production growth, with Suriname potentially producing more than 200,000 bpd by the end of the decade. The country’s coordinated exploration activity and partnership structure position it as the Caribbean’s next major contributor to regional oil and gas supply.

(Source: World Oil)

• A very large crude carrier (VLCC), the Yuan Peng Yang, is transporting about two million barrels of crude produced offshore Guyana to Ningbo, China, according to analytics firm OilX.
• The crude was loaded from the Liza Destiny and Liza Unity floating production, storage and offloading (FPSO) vessels, notices from Guyana’s Maritime Administration Department (MARAD) show.
• OilX data indicate the tanker departed Guyana earlier this month and is expected to discharge at Ningbo on November 26. The shipment represents a double cargo, roughly twice the typical one-million-barrel liftings from the ExxonMobil-operated Stabroek Block.
• China does not regularly import Guyanese crude; the voyage distance is long. Earlier this year, in May 2025, independent price reporting agency Quantum Commodity Intelligence reported the first shipment of Guyanese crude to China in three years. The shipment was transported aboard the VLCC Ulysses, which departed the Liza Destiny on May 14.
• Most of Guyana’s crude exports are destined for Europe, with Panama and the Netherlands among the top direct recipients, according to months of data examined by OilNOW.
• Crude production from the Stabroek Block, operated by ExxonMobil, averaged about 740,000 barrels per day (b/d) in September, and is even higher currently, according to Exxon. Output is gradually increasing toward the installed capacity of about 900,000 b/d as the Yellowtail project, which began production in August, ramps up to its full 250,000 b/d capacity.

(Source: Oil NOW)

• The U.S. budget deficit shrank by US$41.0Bn to US$1.775Tn in the 2025 fiscal year, despite a US$118.0Bn increase in revenues from President Donald Trump's tariffs, the Treasury Department reported on Thursday.
• The results for the year ended September 30, which include nearly nine months of Trump's second term in the White House, compared to a US$1.817T deficit in fiscal 2024. It was the first time the annual deficit had fallen since 2022, when the unwinding of COVID-19 relief programs brought spending down.
• The smaller deficit was aided by a record US$195.0Bn in net customs receipts for the fiscal year, an increase of US$118.0Bn from the prior year as new Trump tariffs rolled in. Customs receipts in September reached a new record high of US$29.7Bn, but the pace of increase slowed from August, when US$29.5Bn was collected. Total receipts for fiscal 2025 were a record US$5.235T, up US$317.0Bn, or 6.0%, from the US$4.918T in fiscal 2024. Fiscal 2025 outlays also were a record at US$7.01T, up US$275.0Bn, or 4.0%, from US$6.735T in the prior fiscal year.
• A U.S. Treasury official said the department calculated an estimated deficit-to-GDP ratio of 5.9% for fiscal 2025 but declined to say what GDP estimate was used. This figure compares to an actual 6.3% deficit-to-GDP ratio for fiscal 2024. For the full 2025 fiscal year, the Department of Education suffered the biggest cut in outlays, down US$233.0Bn, or 87.0% from the prior year to just US$35.0Bn.
• That cut and the higher customs receipts masked continued increases in outlays for the Social Security retirement plan, the Medicare and Medicaid healthcare programs and interest on the U.S. federal debt.
• The interest expenditure reached a record US$1.216T for the full fiscal year, up US$83.0Bn, or 7.0%, from fiscal 2024, making it the second-largest expenditure item after Social Security. Expenses for that program reached US$1.647T, up US$127.0Bn, or 8.0%, from the prior fiscal year.

(Source: Reuters)

• The Bank of Japan must be careful when normalising monetary policy due to uncertainty about how the economy would react to a new environment of positive interest rates, Seiichi Shimizu, the central bank's assistant governor, said on Thursday.
• While many advanced economies have long-term inflation expectations anchored at their central banks' 2.0% target, the situation in Japan is different in that inflation expectations and underlying inflation remain lower, Shimizu explained during a seminar hosted by the Institute of International Finance in Washington that "In Japan, inflation expectations are still below 2%, so we have to lift up expectations and continue to support economic activity," Shimizu said
• The BOJ confronts another uncertainty unique to Japan, which is unaccustomed to positive interest rates after experiencing a prolonged era of low inflation and rates.
• Japan's central bank exited a decade-long, massive stimulus program last year and raised its key interest rate to 0.5% in January on the view that the country was on the cusp of durably hitting its 2% inflation target.
• While BOJ Governor Kazuo Ueda has signalled the central bank's readiness to keep raising rates, he has stressed the need to tread cautiously to scrutinise the economic impact of U.S. tariffs. The central bank’s next policy meeting is scheduled for October 29-30.

(Source: Reuters)

• Local Consumer prices rose 0.8% in September, according to the Statistical Institute of Jamaica (STATIN). This upward movement was primarily driven by the ‘Food and Non-Alcoholic Beverages’ (+0.9%), ‘Housing, Water, Electricity, Gas and Other Fuels’ (+1.0%), and ‘Education’ (+5.6%) divisions.
• The outturn in the Food division was influenced mainly by higher prices for some agricultural produce in the class ‘Vegetables, tubers, plantains, cooking bananas, and pulses’. Higher housing, water and fuel prices reflected increased electricity rates and rental costs, while education costs rose on the back of higher tuition fees for private schools at the primary level for the new school term.
• Despite the month-on-month increase, the point-to-point (P2P) inflation rate remains below the Bank of Jamaica’s (BOJ’s) target range (4.0-6.0%). The 12-month point-to-point (P2P) was 2.1%, influenced primarily by increases in ‘Housing, Water, Electricity, Gas and Other Fuels’ (+4.8%), ‘Restaurant and Accommodation Services’ (+4.1%) and ‘Food and Non-Alcoholic Beverages’ (+0.7%). The division ‘Information and Communication’ (-5.8%) moderated the growth in P2P.
• Despite broad market expectations for a reduction in the benchmark rate, the BOJ’s Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) unanimously voted to leave its policy rate at 5.75% against the background of low headline inflation amid global uncertainties at its meetings on September 25th and 26th.
• At that time, the BoJ emphasised that the forces driving historically low headline inflation were temporary, arising largely from strong base effects and policy changes. It also indicated that it will increasingly monitor core inflation, a less volatile indicator that has remained within the BoJ’s target since April 2023, as a key input into its monetary policy decisions. The next policy announcement is set for November 20, 2025, and Fitch Solutions maintains the view that the BOJ will reduce rates in Q4 2025.

(Sources: STATIN and BMI, A Fitch Solutions Company)

• On October 15, 2025, Caribbean Information and Credit Rating Services Limited (CariCRIS) reaffirmed the corporate credit ratings for Seprod Limited (Seprod or the Group). The ratings assigned are CariA (Local Currency Rating) on the regional scale, jmAA- (Local Currency Rating), and jmA+ (Foreign Currency Rating) on the Jamaica national scale. The CariA and jmA+ ratings indicate that Seprod's creditworthiness is good compared to other issuers in the Caribbean and Jamaica, while the jmAA- rating indicates that Seprod’s creditworthiness is high relative to other issuers in Jamaica.
• However, CariCRIS assigned a negative outlook on Seprod’s ratings. The negative outlook reflects the high likelihood that Seprod’s financial flexibility will remain constrained over the next 12-15 months. This is underpinned by Seprod’s increasing debt levels needed to support acquisition-led growth and meet working capital requirements.
• As a result, Seprod’s effective debt servicing coverage ratio (DSCR) is likely to remain challenged. However, if the Group successfully refinances its near-term obligations, it is expected that Seprod’s debt servicing ratios will improve. Despite these challenges, the Group is projected to maintain profitable operations and comfortably service its debt in a timely manner over the next 12 to 15 months.
• Factors that could individually or collectively lead to a decrease in the rating or outlook for Seprod include a decline in the credit rating of the Government of Jamaica over the next 12 to 15 months; a sustained reduction in the Profit after Tax (PAT) margin below 3% for two consecutive years (2.5% for FY2024); or the Group's effective DSCR remaining below 1 for another year.
• That said, Seprod’s ratings are supported by its strong market position, underpinned by a diversified portfolio of products and a well-established distribution network across the Caribbean. The Group’s solid financial performance continues to reinforce the ratings, despite persistently constrained debt protection metrics and lower profitability reported (-42.03% YoY) in 2024.
• Overall, the ratings reflect Seprod’s integrated business model and robust corporate governance practices, backed by a competent management team. However, ongoing global economic uncertainty poses potential risks to earnings and profitability, despite generally favourable economic conditions in its primary markets.

(Sources: CariCRIS & NCBCM Research)

• The European Union countries have approved maintaining Panama, Russia, and nine other jurisdictions on their tax haven blacklists, after finding that they continue to fail to cooperate in this area or have failed to implement the reforms they had committed to. 
• The list, specifically, consists of American Samoa, Anguilla, Fiji, Guam, Palau, Panama, Russia, Samoa, Trinidad and Tobago, the American Virgin Islands, and Vanuatu, according to a statement from the EU Council, the institution in which the Member States are represented. “Although there have been some positive developments in this round of updates, the Council regrets that these jurisdictions are still not fully cooperating on tax issues and encourages them to improve their legal framework to address the identified problems,” the institution explained.
• This is the second time this repertoire has been updated without any changes, after the revision last February also kept these eleven jurisdictions in the same list.  The list, which has been in operation since 2017 and is updated every six months, includes jurisdictions that fail to meet EU standards on tax transparency, tax fairness, or the implementation of international standards to prevent tax base erosion or profit shifting, and that also fail to take steps to address these problems.
• Listing on it does not entail financial penalties, beyond a ban on European funds transiting through entities based in these jurisdictions and administrative measures such as more frequent audits, although states can decide at the national level to impose other types of penalties.

(Source: Newsroom Panama)

• The Bank of Mexico should be more cautious in cutting interest rates, given the current scenario of sticky core inflation and headline inflation still above target, deputy governor Jonathan Heath said.
• The central bank has cut borrowing costs for ten straight meetings, most recently delivering a quarter percentage cut last month that Heath opposed. While the annual headline inflation sits within the Bank of Mexico's target range of 3%, plus or minus a percentage point, the goal is to get it to 3%, Heath said in a podcast by Grupo Financiero Banorte.
• Heath noted that continued increases in labour costs and international food prices were hindering rapid convergence toward the 3% inflation target. Core inflation, meanwhile, a closely watched indicator of price trends that strips out highly volatile prices like food and energy, ticked up to 4.28% in September - "showing no sign that it wants to go down," Heath said.
• The annual headline rate sped up in September to 3.76%, according to official data; however, the central bank estimates the rate will hit 3% in the third quarter of next year.

(Source: Reuters)