• Fitch Ratings has affirmed Jamaica's Long-Term Foreign-Currency Issuer Default Rating (IDR) at 'BB-' and revised its Outlook to Stable from Positive.
• The Outlook revision reflects the significant damage inflicted on Jamaica from Hurricane Melissa, which we expect to lead to an economic contraction and require significant reconstruction costs. Fitch expects the economy to contract in 2025, with significant uncertainties around the pace of recovery, given adverse effects that could linger for key sectors like tourism, agriculture and mining. Economic contraction and fiscal deficits are expected to interrupt the prior strong downward trend in government debt/GDP, which is still above the 'BB' median and vulnerable to changes in the exchange and interest rates.
• The rating affirmation and Stable Outlook also reflect mitigating factors to the major hurricane shock, including insurance and contingency funds (combined totals at nearly US$250Mn), multilateral lines of credit (at nearly US$384Mn), and expected large private insurance flows (estimated insured damages range from US$1Bn-US$2.5Bn.
• Additionally, Fitch expects Jamaica's foreign reserve position to remain healthy, aided by increased remittance inflows, strong relations with international financial institutions and a benign debt amortisation profile for the next few years. Despite considerable uncertainty regarding the impact of Hurricane Melissa, Fitch sees headroom at the current rating to accommodate negative economic growth and fiscal metric implications.
• Fitch projects a 1.5% economic contraction in 2025 with a modest 1.8% rebound in 2026; tourism receipts may fall ~15% annually and could worsen if major hotels stay closed past Feb-2026, though rising remittances (16% of GDP in 2024) will partly offset losses. The government’s suspension of the Fiscal Responsibility Law will push the fiscal balance from a 0.2% surplus in FY2024 to a 3.2% deficit in FY2025 and wider in FY2026 due to reconstruction, driving debt/GDP up toward ~68% by end-2026.
• The current account is expected to shift from a 3.1% surplus in 2024 to a deficit in 2026 as tourism and mining weaken while imports surge, though Jamaica’s floating FX regime and strong reserves (6.6 months of external payments) offer buffers. Jamaica’s BB- rating is underpinned by strong governance indicators, moderate inflation, and past fiscal reforms that cut debt from 135% in 2012 to 64.7% in FY2024, though crime and climate-related storm and flood risks remain key structural challenges.
• A downgrade could occur if Jamaica experiences a significantly weaker or slower-than-expected post-hurricane economic recovery, or if new external shocks cause a substantial deterioration in public finances or external liquidity.
• However, an upgrade could occur if the government achieves a sustained decline in debt-to-GDP and interest burdens, and if economic damages are lower or the recovery is faster than currently expected.

(Source: Fitch Ratings)

• The World Bank, in coordination with the Inter-American Development Bank (IDB), estimates that the physical damage to Jamaica caused by Hurricane Melissa totals US$8.8Bn – equivalent to 41% of the country’s 2024 GDP – making it the costliest hurricane in Jamaica’s recorded history.
• The Global Rapid Damage Estimation (GRADE), conducted immediately after the hurricane, assessed physical damage across residential, non-residential, infrastructure, and agricultural sectors. It does not include broader economic losses, which are expected to be even more significant. This assessment will inform a more detailed evaluation of damages and economic losses by sectors as part of a collaboration with the Inter-American Development Bank, the United Nations Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean (ECLAC), and under the leadership of the Planning Institute of Jamaica.
• According to the preliminary findings, 41% of the assessed damages were to residential buildings, 33% to infrastructure, 21% to non-residential buildings, and 5% to the agriculture sector, including livestock and related infrastructure. While physical damage to agriculture is comparatively lower, the sector is expected to face significant economic losses.
• “The scale of damage caused by Hurricane Melissa demands a fast, coordinated, and evidence-based response,” said Anabel González, IDB Vice President for Countries and Regional Integration.
• Jamaica’s comprehensive disaster risk financing system has positioned the country to respond to a range of impacts using multiple financial instruments. A disaster of this magnitude, however, will require scaled-up and well-coordinated efforts and partnerships. The World Bank and the IDB are supporting the Government of Jamaica through contingent financing, technical assistance – including mechanisms like GRADE – and long-term support to coordinate resilient recovery and reconstruction.
• The GRADE methodology provides an independent, rapid estimation of physical post-disaster damage, offering an initial sector-by-sector quantification of a disaster’s severity. The GRADE report for Jamaica was conducted and financially supported by the Global Facility for Disaster Reduction and Recovery (GFDRR) and the Ministry of Finance of Japan, through the World Bank program for Mainstreaming Disaster Risk Management in Developing Countries, in collaboration with the World Bank.

(Sources: World Bank)

• Main Market Financial Service players, Barita Investments Limited (BIL) and JMMBG Group Limited (JMMBGL) had contrasting earnings performances for the September Quarter. BIL reported Q4 earnings of $763.41Mn (down 17.9% year over year), due to a falloff in net operating revenues, while JMMBGL earnings climbed on the back of higher operating revenues and a higher share of profits.
• Despite higher Net Interest Income (NII) and fees and commissions, BIL’s operating revenues declined by 25.9%, reflecting a sharp decline in gains on investments. NII increased by 5% to $417.65Mn, as it deployed proceeds from its recent bond into higher-yielding opportunities in its investment portfolio. Fees and commissions also increased (+36.5%), primarily driven by higher investment banking fees and expansion in asset management. However, this growth was offset by markedly weaker gains from investments (-71.3%).
• Buoyed by improved spread and effective cost of funds management, JMMBGL also saw its NII grow (+50.8% to $1.32Bn). Fees and Commission rose by 20.6% to J$247.63Mn, owing to its growing off-balance sheet solutions, such as unit trusts, pension funds, and money market funds. Unlike BIL, JMMBGL also had a 39.2% increase in gains on investments, which contributed to its operating revenue increase. Beyond operating revenues, the company also had a 42.7% increase in share of profit from its associate, mainly due to its 23% share in Sagicor Financial Company, which also boosted earnings.
• Both companies also had differing results regarding cost containment. BIL cut its quarterly operating expenses by 21.7% to $1.40Bn, driven by a decrease in expected credit loss, which helped to cushion the impact of the revenue decline. Notwithstanding the savings, its cost-to-Income (C/I) ratio increased to 63.9% (up from 60.5% in 2024). Conversely, inflationary increases and strategic spending drove higher operating expenses of $0.30Bn (+5.4%) for JMMBGL, albeit not enough to prevent an improvement in cost-to-income ratio from 97.8% to 76.3% YoY.
• Despite the divergent quarterly performances, the outlooks for both companies remain stable within the context of the current interest rate environment. However, there are risks to their financial performance due to the impact of Hurricane Melissa, which could generate inflationary pressures. Rising domestic prices cast doubt on the possibility of near-term rate cuts, which could weaken net interest income. Melissa’s economic fallout could also spill over into the stock market and lead to reduced trading gains. For JMMB, there is also the potential for an increase in non-performing loans arising from the devastation in western Jamaica and its impact on borrower debt servicing ability.
• Barita's stock has increased 6.0% year-to-date, closing at J$77.93 on Thursday. At this price, the stock trades at a price-to-book (P/B) ratio of 2.7x, which is above the Main Market Financial Sector’s average of 1.2x. Meanwhile, JMMB’s stock has decreased 23.4% year-to-date, closing at J$17.08 at Thursday. At this price, the stock trades at a price-to-earnings (P/B) ratio of 0.5x, which is also lower than the Main Market Financial Sector’s average of 1.2x

(Sources: JSE & NCBCM Research)

• The International Monetary Fund (IMF) concluded its 2025 Article IV consultation and reported that the Dominican Republic continues to show strong economic fundamentals, manageable risks, and enough policy flexibility to respond to adverse scenarios. While the detailed technical report is still pending approval, the IMF released an official statement outlining the country’s current performance and expectations for the coming years.
• According to the Fund, the Dominican economy slowed toward the end of 2024 and during the first half of 2025 due to rising global uncertainty and tighter international financial conditions. However, recent indicators point to a gradual recovery supported by expansive fiscal and monetary measures. Credit activity, exports, and tourism have strengthened, and inflation remains under control, with an estimated average of 3.7% for 2025.
• Looking ahead, the IMF projects economic growth of 4.5% in 2026, bringing the country closer to its long-term trend of around 5%. The current account deficit is expected to stay near 2.5% of GDP and be fully financed by foreign direct investment, underscoring sustained investor confidence.
• Although external risks continue to outweigh positive factors, driven by global uncertainty, shifts in financial conditions, and vulnerability to natural disasters, the IMF emphasised that the Dominican Republic is in a strong position to handle potential shocks thanks to solid macroeconomic foundations, adequate international reserves, a stable banking system, and room to apply countercyclical policies.
• That said, the Fund stressed the importance of advancing structural reforms. It encouraged the government to move forward with tax reform aimed at increasing revenue by reducing generalised subsidies while protecting social spending, and to adopt a medium-term revenue strategy as the framework for broader fiscal changes. It also highlighted the need to fully implement the Electricity Pact to reduce sector losses and lower fiscal pressure. Improvements in governance, the labour market, and social security, aligned with the Meta 2036 plan, remain essential, as does increased investment in infrastructure, education, and health to support more inclusive and competitive growth.
• Finally, the IMF described the Central Bank’s monetary policy as appropriate and recommended maintaining exchange rate flexibility, limiting foreign exchange intervention to significant shocks, strengthening the monetary transmission mechanism, and gradually phasing out extraordinary liquidity measures. It also noted that the financial system remains sound with low systemic risks, encouraging continued progress in regulation and supervision, the implementation of Basel II and III standards, and further improvements in anti–money laundering and counter-terrorism financing policies.

(Source: Dominican Today)

• U.S. job growth accelerated in September, but the unemployment rate increased to a four-year high of 4.4%. The August payroll data was also revised to show employers shedding jobs for the second time this year as employers navigate an uncertain environment.
• The increase in the jobless rate to the highest level since October 2021, reported by the Labour Department in its closely watched employment report on Thursday was from 4.3% in August and reflected more people entering the labour market in search of work. Other data from the Labour Department showed layoffs remained low in mid-November, suggesting the labour market remained in a holding pattern.
• Nonfarm payrolls increased by 119,000 jobs after a downwardly revised 4,000 drop in August, the Labor Department's Bureau of Labour Statistics (BLS) said. Economists polled by Reuters had forecast 50,000 jobs would be added after a previously reported 22,000 gain in August.
• The report was initially due on October 3 but was delayed by the 43-day shutdown of the government. The longest shutdown in history has forced the BLS to cancel the release of October's report, as no data was collected for the household survey to calculate the unemployment rate for that month. October nonfarm payrolls will instead be combined with November's employment report, now due on December 16, the BLS said.
• The labour market has lost significant momentum this year, as evidenced by sharp downward revisions to non-farm payroll counts. Economists and policymakers blame the slowdown on reduced supply and demand for workers. Heading into the economic data blackout, the Bureau of Labour Statistics (BLS) had estimated that about 911,000 fewer jobs were created in the 12 months through March than previously reported. A reduction in immigration that started during the final year of former President Joe Biden's term and accelerated under President Donald Trump's administration has depleted labour supply.
• Some economists believed the September employment report could still influence the Federal Reserve's December 9-10 policy meeting. U.S. central bank officials will not have November's report in hand at that meeting as the release date has been pushed to December 16 from December 5. Minutes of the Fed's October 28-29 meeting published on Wednesday showed many policymakers cautioned that lowering borrowing costs further could risk undermining the fight to quell inflation.
• The rising popularity of artificial intelligence is also eroding demand for labour, with most of the hit landing on entry-level positions, and blocking recent college graduates out of work. Economists said AI was fueling jobless economic growth.

(Source: Reuters)

• S. existing home sales increased in October as buyers took advantage of lower mortgage rates, though rising unemployment and high home prices remain a constraint for the housing market.
• Home sales rose 1.2% last month to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 4.10Mn units, the National Association of Realtors said on Thursday. Economists polled by Reuters had forecast home resales would rise to a rate of 4.08Mn units. Home sales advanced 1.7% on a year-over-year basis.
• Mortgage rates decreased when the Federal Reserve resumed its interest rate cuts, data from mortgage finance agency Freddie Mac showed. They have, however, stopped their decline as U.S. central bank officials have signaled a reluctance to lower rates again next month. Labour market stagnation is also sidelining potential homebuyers.
• Lack of affordable housing has become a political hot-button issue. President Donald Trump this month suggested a 50-year mortgage to make housing affordable, an idea that was panned by some of his supporters and housing market experts who argued it would result in homeowners paying more in interest and taking longer to build equity. The National Association of Realtors (NAR) this month estimated the median age of first-time buyers was 40. The typical homebuyer in the 1980s was in their late 20s, the NAR said.
• The inventory of existing homes last month increased 10.9% to 1.52Mn units from a year ago. It, however, remains below the levels that prevailed before the COVID-19 pandemic. The median existing home price last month increased 2.1% from a year ago to $415,200. At October's sales pace, it would take 4.4 months to exhaust the current inventory of existing homes, up from 4.1 months a year ago.

(Source: Reuters)

• With growth in cost of sales, outpacing revenues and a falloff in other revenues, Carreras Limited (Carreras) reported flat earnings of $1.73Bn, for the quarter ending September 30, 2025 (Q3 2025).
• Revenues rose 4.5% year-over-year (YoY) to $5.47Bn, as demand for its products remained stable due to a combination of brand loyalty and product diversification.
• However, higher production costs and the impact of currency devaluation on imported products drove the cost of sales to grow 8.2% higher during the quarter, outpacing revenue growth. This resulted in a softening of gross margin to 5.64%, 150bps lower than Q3 2024.
• Other operating income, which comprises interest income, gains on disposal of PPE and other miscellaneous income, also declined by 61.5% to $32.36Mn.
• That said, the successful implementation of cost-containment measures led to lower administrative, distribution, and marketing expenses of $0.78Bn (-3.6%), which partly offset the higher COGS and lower other income.
• Despite the flat quarter, 9M earnings are still up by 30.1% YoY, driven by 20.8% revenue growth, which outpaced COGS (+12.8%) and administrative, distribution and marketing expenses (+14.4%).
• Although management has not reported any damage to its facilities from Hurricane Melissa, its operations may be disrupted, particularly with several retailers, including wholesalers and shops, shut down in the most affected parishes. This is likely to translate into softer Q4 earnings. However, looking ahead, strong brand loyalty and the inelastic nature of its products should support normalisation of earnings.
• Carreras' stock has appreciated 26.6% year-to-date due to stronger earnings and increasing dividend payments since the start of the year, closing at J$16.52 on Wednesday. At this price, the stock trades at a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 10.9x, which is lower than the Main Market Manufacturing & Distribution Sector’s average of 18.6x. This implies that the stock may be undervalued.

(Sources: JSE & NCBCM Research)

• Key Insurance Company Limited (KEY) has officially applied to the Jamaica Stock Exchange (JSE) for the voluntary delisting of its ordinary shares from the Main Market, in accordance with JSE Main Market Rule 411B.
• The rule states that: A listed company may make an application to the Exchange to be delisted or to suspend trading in its securities. Any such application must be in writing, stating the reason for the application, and accompanied by a certified copy of the resolution of the Board authorising the application for delisting or suspension.
• The delisting application follows the completion of the takeover offer made by GraceKennedy Financial Group Limited (GKFG), which increased GKFG’s shareholding to over 98% of the Company’s total issued share capital. As a result, the remaining public float of the Company's shares is now below the minimum threshold of 20% required for continued listing on the JSE Main Market.
• KEY's stock has decreased 18.9% year-to-date, closing at J$1.98 at Wednesday. At this price, the stock trades at a price-to-book (P/B) ratio of 0.7x, which is lower than the Main Market Financial Sector’s average of 1.1x.

(Sources: JSE & NCBCM Research)

• Given the shift in United States (U.S.) trade policy this year, governments in the region should diversify their trade relations and strengthen regional integration, according to the latest annual report by the Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean (ECLAC) on the region’s trade performance.
• The report titled “International Trade Outlook for Latin America and the Caribbean 2025: International trade in a new era of weaponised interdependence” details the recent evolution of the region’s trade, along with projections, analysing in particular the impact that the new United States trade policy has had on the region’s countries
• According to the report, because of the various tariff hikes implemented by the United States since February 2025, Latin American and Caribbean (LAC) countries face, on average, an effective tariff rate of around 10%, which is 7 percentage points lower than the average imposed globally. The highest average tariff is faced by Brazil (33%), followed by Uruguay (20%) and Nicaragua (18%). Meanwhile, the average tariffs levied vary across some Caribbean countries. Tariffs levied from January 2025 and August 2025 for Trinidad and Tobago amounted to 14%, the Dominican Republic 12%, Jamaica 6%, and the rest of the Caribbean 3%.
• The relative intensity of trade with the United States is also much higher in some LAC countries than in others. In 2024, the United States market accounted for around 60% of the Dominican Republic, almost half of goods exports from Costa Rica, 41% for Trinidad and Tobago, 21% for Barbados and 15% for Guyana. The United States remains the region’s main trading partner, but its relative importance has declined over the last 24 years. Its share of the region’s total exports fell from 56% in 2000 to 44% in 2024, and its share of total imports fell from 46% to 28%.
• Overall, LAC countries face lower tariffs in the United States than several of the U.S.’s main trading partners, particularly from Asia. This situation creates opportunities for trade diversion in favour of the region’s exports, in sectors such as clothing, medical devices and agro-industry.
• Meanwhile, there is evidence that the uncertainty generated by the changes in U.S. trade policy is affecting Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) flows to the region, especially in sectors that account for a large share of exports to the U.S. In the first half of 2025, FDI project announcements in the region totalled US$31.374Bn, down 53% from the same period in 2024 and 37% lower than the 2015-2024 average.
• To address this situation, ECLAC recommends that the region’s countries deepen their trade relations with partners such as China, the European Union, India, the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN), the Cooperation Council for the Arab States of the Gulf, and the African Continental Free Trade Area. The market size and economic momentum of all these partners, along with the relatively low level of exports from the region to the corresponding countries at present, offer significant opportunities for future growth.
• Along with diversification of trade relations with extraregional partners, strengthening of regional economic integration is a strategic course of action that is essential to increase the global competitiveness of LAC and reduce its exposure to a more uncertain and protectionist international environment. Intraregional trade accounts for just 14% of the region’s total exports, which is one of the lowest levels in the world. This represents a striking growth opportunity, for most LAC countries, the regional market is the top destination for manufacturing exports and accounts for the largest number of exporting companies (especially micro-, small and medium-sized enterprises (MSMEs).

(Source: ECLAC)

• Barbados is developing a new debt-for-social swap designed to channel savings from restructured sovereign debt into key social programmes, including education, healthcare and heritage, economic affairs minister Kay McConney announced on Tuesday, November 18, 2025.
• McConney made the revelation at the United Nations BCCI Private Sector Forum. The minister for investment stressed that ambition requires financing and that traditional models are proving insufficient. The debt-for-social swap will be used to bolster education, healthcare and heritage, and build community resilience, while still maintaining fiscal responsibility, she added.
• She explained the concept in simpler terms: “What happens is you have debt, there’s a price for that, it’s your interest. What you do is restructure that debt, and whatever savings you make from a reduced interest rate, those savings are committed to the specific purpose you’ve determined, be it climate, be it nature, be it social.”
• McConney positioned the proposed social swap as the next logical step in a broader strategy of innovative financing that Barbados has been pioneering on the global stage.
• The minister also referred to the 2024 debt-for-climate swap. Barbados completed a debt-for-climate swap by repurposing $300 Mn in domestic debt through a syndicated loan from the domestic banking sector, generating an estimated $125 Mn in fiscal savings. These savings were set to be utilised for climate-resilient water, infrastructure and agricultural projects. She insisted that the debt-for-social swap, like the previous nature- and climate-focused deals, will not increase the island’s overall debt burden but will instead use existing obligations more strategically, creating fiscal space for high-priority social initiatives.

(Source: Barbados Today)