• During its meetings on 25 and 26 June 2026, the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) kept the policy interest rate at 5.50% and decided to continue measures to maintain stability in the foreign exchange market. The decision reflects the Bank of Jamaica’s (BOJ’s) view that, despite inflation remaining within its 4.0%–6.0% target range over the past three months, uncertainty remains high and maintaining current policy will help limit second-round inflationary effects from rising international commodity prices.
• Headline inflation rose to 5.5% in May 2026, remaining within the Bank's target range but exceeding its latest forecast. This marked the fourth consecutive monthly increase in 2026, driven mainly by higher prices for agricultural products and the pass-through of increased international commodity prices to domestic goods and services.
• Meanwhile, core inflation increased to 4.7% in May 2026, up from 3.9% in January, indicating that inflationary pressures are becoming more widespread beyond food and fuel. The increase reflects the impact of higher imported commodity costs filtering through the economy, suggesting that businesses are passing increased costs on to consumers
• Overall, headline inflation is projected to briefly rise above the 6.0% upper limit of the target range in the near term, although the breach is expected to be smaller than previously anticipated. Higher energy and transport costs, recent increases in public passenger fares, and stronger domestic demand linked to post-Hurricane Melissa recovery spending are expected to contribute to this temporary rise.
• Economic recovery continues but faces significant risks. The economy is gradually recovering following Hurricane Melissa, with GDP growth projected between 1.0% and 3.0% for FY2026/27. However, the outlook remains vulnerable to a prolonged Middle East conflict, which could raise airline fares and weaken tourism demand; a slower-than-expected recovery in the mining sector; tighter financial conditions in the United States; and reduced consumer purchasing power as inflation rises.
• The risks of inflation over the next eight quarters remain skewed to the upside, with the greatest threat being a prolonged Middle East conflict that could trigger further increases in global commodity prices. Despite these risks, Jamaica's external buffers remain robust. As at May 2026, Net International Reserves (NIR) stood at US$6.48Bn, equivalent to 26.6 weeks of goods and services import cover, more than double the accepted benchmark of 12 weeks. This strong reserve position has helped underpin exchange rate stability, with the Jamaican dollar appreciating modestly against the U.S. dollar year to date. The MPC reaffirmed that it will continue monitoring economic conditions closely and stands ready to adjust monetary policy if inflationary pressures intensify.

(Sources: Bank of Jamaica)

• United Oil & Gas (UOG), a UK-based oil and gas exploration company with offshore assets in Jamaica and the United Kingdom, reported a US$1.25Mn net loss for 2025, an improvement from the US$2.44Mn loss recorded in 2024, while year-end cash increased to US$1.7Mn following multiple fundraising rounds.
• Despite the stronger cash position, the company warned of material uncertainty over its ability to continue as a going concern, saying it needs either a farm-out partner for its Walton-Morant offshore licence in Jamaica or additional investor funding to finance future exploration. A farm-out would involve another company taking part ownership of the Walton-Morant licence in return for helping to pay for exploration.
• For United, a farm-out would mean selling a stake in the Walton-Morant licence in exchange for funding and technical expertise. The company requires fresh capital this year to continue advancing its offshore exploration programme in Jamaican waters.
• United has raised capital several times, including a £2.23Mn share placing during 2025 and about £486,000 from post-year-end warrant exercises, but directors acknowledged that further funding is not guaranteed.
• The company continued advancing its Walton-Morant licence, securing a two-year extension to January 2028, along with environmental and beach permits that enabled its offshore geochemical survey. Survey work completed in early 2026 detected C4 and C5 hydrocarbons in selected seabed samples, findings that could indicate a working petroleum system. However, no commercial oil or gas discovery has been made, and the results are being used to support ongoing discussions with potential partners.
• Chief Executive Brian Larkin described 2025 as a landmark year for the company, saying its immediate priority is securing a partner to help fund exploration in Jamaica while continuing work on its smaller UK oil project.

(Sources: Fidelity International and NCBCM Research)

• The proposed Local Companies (Control) (Amendment) Bill marks a significant shift in the policy environment for foreign-owned businesses operating in the Cayman Islands. The Bill, published in June 2026 and scheduled for parliamentary debate, would empower the Cabinet to suspend the issuance of Local Companies Control Licences to foreign-owned businesses, either broadly or within specific industries.
• Premier Andre Ebanks has framed the measure as a modernisation of 1970s-era legislation that no longer reflects Cayman's economic maturity, arguing that a skilled Caymanian workforce now exists to fill roles previously requiring expatriate enterprise. While no immediate widespread restrictions are anticipated, the discretionary and open-ended nature of the proposed power itself is a source of uncertainty for internationally oriented investors.
• The political pressures driving the bill are deeply rooted and unlikely to dissipate. The non-Caymanian share of the population has risen to a record 54.7% in 2025, up from 43.3% in 2016, as rapid economic growth has drawn a large expatriate workforce into financial services and hospitality. Housing costs have become the primary cost-of-living grievance among Caymanian voters, and all three parties in the National Coalition For Caymanians (NCFC) campaigned on pledges to improve economic opportunities for Caymanians and moderate immigration. A non-binding referendum held alongside the April 2025 election, which rejected cruise berthing infrastructure development, further illustrated the direction of public sentiment toward prioritising quality of life over unconstrained growth.
• The real estate sector will bear the brunt of early implementation, given its political salience and limited systemic importance to the broader economy. The government has explicitly identified property development as a priority area, reflecting voter grievances over housing affordability and the visible dominance of expatriate-owned enterprises in a market directly linked to the cost-of-living pressures that dominated the 2025 election campaign.
• That said, BMI does not expect the legislation to trigger sweeping intervention across the broader economy over the next two years, and the financial services sector in particular is well insulated by the government's own fiscal dependence on it. Unlike the financial services sector, which accounts for over 30% of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) and the large majority of government fee revenue, real estate presents a lower-risk target for intervention. A moratorium on new foreign-owned property development licences would be politically popular, economically containable in the near term and difficult for international investors to challenge given the discretionary framing of the legislation.
• Furthermore, the structural incentives for any Cayman administration to protect the offshore financial centre model are too strong to allow aggressive application of licensing restrictions in that sector. However, investors should treat the bill as an early signal of a broader political direction rather than a one-off measure. As the NCFC coalition approaches the next general election, due in 2029, campaigning pressures are likely to intensify demands for more visible Caymanianisation outcomes, raising the risk that the scope of intervention gradually widens beyond real estate into other sectors where expatriate-owned businesses are perceived to be crowding out Caymanian participation.

(Source: BMI, A Fitch Solutions Company)

• The government of Antigua and Barbuda has approved a US$10 passenger head tax increase for travellers coming into and departing the country. A statement issued following the weekly Cabinet meeting noted that the new tax will now be US$50 as part of the government's ongoing efforts to ensure the sustainable financing of critical regional institutions that provide essential services to the country and the wider Eastern Caribbean.
• The additional revenue generated from the adjustment will be earmarked to assist in meeting the country's financial obligations to regional agencies, including the Eastern Caribbean Civil Aviation Authority (ECCAA) and the Eastern Caribbean Supreme Court (ECSC). 'These institutions play indispensable roles in maintaining aviation safety and oversight across the region and ensuring the effective administration of justice through the Eastern Caribbean judicial system,' the statement said.
• In approving the measure, Cabinet noted that Antigua and Barbuda continues to benefit significantly from the services provided by these institutions and must therefore contribute its fair share towards their operation and sustainability. That said, travel within the Caricom region will remain exempt from the increase in keeping with the government's commitment to promoting regional movement, strengthening economic and social ties among Caricom member states, and advancing the goals of Caribbean integration.
• The increase in the passenger head tax aligns with the government's broader efforts to strengthen public finances and secure new revenue streams. Alongside the measure, the authorities are considering expanding the scope of the 10% windfall tax to all businesses earning annual profits of EC$1Mn or more to help fund tertiary education.
• These measures come as Antigua and Barbuda face ongoing fiscal pressures. In its May 2026 Article IV consultation, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) urged the government to address significant arrears to Paris Club creditors and domestic suppliers, noting that while public debt has declined and tax revenues have improved, resolving outstanding financial obligations remains critical to strengthening debt sustainability and expanding access to long-term financing.

(Sources: Trinidad Express Newspapers & NCBCM Research)

• Shipping traffic through the Strait of Hormuz has remained elevated despite renewed U.S.-Iran strikes over the weekend and seems at least partially unfazed by the stop-and-start peace talks. 
• According to independent traffic service MarineTraffic, three container vessels entered the Persian Gulf over the weekend, a significant sign of confidence as they represent the first commercial container ships to make the journey in that direction since the start of the conflict. A total of 108 verified crossings were recorded between June 26 and 28, representing only a modest slowdown from the previous week.
• Although recent attacks, including an Iranian strike on an oil tanker and subsequent U.S. strikes on 10 Iranian military targets near the Strait, tested the fragile ceasefire, commercial shipping continued. Notwithstanding, shipping traffic remains well below the above 100 ships that crossed the strait daily before the war.
• The United Kingdom Maritime Trade Operations centre has advised vessels to transit with caution. Shippers have been using multiple routes along both Oman's and Iran's coastlines to maintain transit through the waterway. In addition, two empty supertankers entered the Persian Gulf, while several Saudi vessels successfully made the passage.
• The White House remained optimistic, with National Economic Council Director Kevin Hassett noting on Monday, June 29, 2026, that shipping traffic could soon return to more than 100 ships per day, helping to ease price pressures globally.
• The willingness of tanker companies and their crews to navigate Hormuz is critical to returning the global oil market to normal and unlocking millions of barrels of supply. A sustained recovery in traffic through the Strait could help support global energy supplies and reduce upward pressure on oil prices if diplomatic efforts continue.

(Sources: Yahoo Finance & Bloomberg)

• Oil prices settled more than 1% higher on Monday, June 29, 2026, after renewed U.S. and Iranian strikes underscored the fragility of their interim peace deal. Brent crude futures gained 1.61% to US$73.15 per barrel, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude rose 2.2% to US$70.75. However, cautious hopes that energy shipping will continue to recover through the Strait of Hormuz limited gains.
• Iranian and U.S. technical teams are expected to meet in Doha in the coming days to discuss implementation of the interim peace deal, after the tit-for-tat weekend strikes threatened to derail the accord. Iran also said it will try to obstruct vessels outside designated shipping lanes, adding to uncertainty around navigation through the waterway.
• Brent crude fell 10.6% last week, marking its third consecutive weekly decline, after crude shipments through the Strait of Hormuz rose to their highest level since the U.S.-Israeli war on Iran began in late February.
• According to energy consultancy firm Gelber & Associates, outbound Persian Gulf crude exports are quickly rebounding to at least 75% of pre-war levels. However, analysts cautioned that traffic through the Strait is still far from fully recovered, with sea mines, insurance constraints and security risks weighing on shipping activity.
• Middle East producers are pushing ahead with loading oil and LNG, despite fresh ship attacks and renewed strikes. Saudi Aramco resumed crude oil loadings on Friday, June 26, 2026, at its Ras Tanura terminal, after they were halted for nearly four months.
• While crude exports and shipping through the Strait of Hormuz are recovering, ongoing security risks, sea mines and insurance constraints continue to prevent a full return to normal operations, limiting the decline in oil prices.

(Source: Reuters)

• Jamaica's capital market continued to demonstrate strong investor demand as Future Energy Source Company Limited (FESCO) and VM Financial Group (VMFG) collectively secured more than J$10Bn in fresh capital through separate debt and hybrid equity transactions, as disclosed on the Jamaica Stock Exchange (JSE).
• FESCO announced the successful issuance of a J$600Mn four-year corporate bond, arranged by NCB Capital Markets Limited (NCBCM), with proceeds earmarked to redeem its J$1Bn bond due in March 2027 of which roughly J$300Mn remained outstanding. A portion of the proceed was also used to provide long-term working capital to fund expansion across its business segments.
• NCBCM, which has led FESCO's previous debt issuances and its 2021 Junior Market listing, said the latest financing strengthens the company's financial flexibility as it continues to grow its position as Jamaica's largest domestic fuel marketing company.
• Meanwhile, VM Financial Group successfully listed J$9.5Mn in preference shares on the JSE’s Private Market on June 10^th after the offer was oversubscribed by approximately J$1.5Bn. The funds will support the Group's strategy to build a stronger, more efficient and resilient business while enhancing its capacity to serve clients and pursue future growth opportunities.
• The transaction also marked another milestone for Jamaica's capital market, increasing the number of securities listed on the JSE Private Market to 13. Adding to the positive momentum, VMFG secured investment-grade ratings from Credit Rating Services Limited (CariCRIS), with the agency citing the company's strong market position, diversified business model and sound capitalisation.
• Together, the two transactions highlight continued investor confidence in well-positioned Jamaican companies and underscore the capital market's role in financing corporate growth and long-term business expansion.

(Sources: JSE & NCBCM Research)

• On June 18, 2026, CariCRIS reaffirmed the ratings assigned to the debt issue of up to US$76Mn (or J$ equivalent) of Sagicor Financial Company Ltd. (SFC), maintaining the company's CariAA+ foreign and local currency ratings on the regional scale and jmAAA foreign and local currency ratings on the Jamaica national scale.
• The reaffirmation underscores SFC's very high level of creditworthiness relative to its Caribbean peers and the highest level of creditworthiness among issuers in Jamaica. The stable outlook maintained was on SFC’s ratings, reflecting expectations that the Group will continue to benefit from its strong market position, diversified operations, solid capitalisation, and prudent risk management framework over the next 12 to 15 months.
• Overall, the reaffirmation signals continued confidence in SFC’s financial strength and its ability to comfortably meet its debt obligations while maintaining a stable operating outlook.
• The outlook could improve if SFC achieves significant gains in the market position and profitability of its major subsidiaries, particularly Sagicor Canada and Sagicor Jamaica. Successful acquisitions or regional expansion initiatives that materially strengthen market share and enhance the Group's overall financial performance could also support a positive rating action.
• Conversely, the ratings could face downward pressure if the Group's capitalisation weakens significantly, particularly if future acquisitions result in its Life Insurance Capital Adequacy Test (LICAT) ratio falling to 100% or below. Other potential risks include a decline of more than 25% in consolidated income, interest coverage falling below 1.5 times, or a deterioration in Jamaica's creditworthiness, given the country's continued importance to SFC's earnings profile.
• Looking ahead, SFC’s ongoing Caribbean merger could further strengthen its position. The company is set to combine Sagicor Group Jamaica and Sagicor Life Inc. under the proposed Sagicor Group Caribbean holding company, creating a larger regional platform with approximately US$6.9Bn in assets.
• Management expects the integration to improve operational efficiency through shared technology platforms, enhance execution, lower administrative costs and expand its competitive position across the Caribbean, potentially increasing market share and financial performance over time.

(Sources: CariCRIS, Jamaica Observer & NCBCM Research)

• The IMF Executive Board approved a new 36-month precautionary Stand-By Arrangement (SBA) for Barbados amounting to US$257Mn. The arrangement gives Barbados immediate access to US$64Mn (BDS$128Mn); however, the Barbadian authorities have indicated that they will treat it as precautionary and will not request the funds at this time.
• According to the IMF, the SBA will provide critical insurance if external shocks generate balance of payments needs, while helping anchor macroeconomic stability and support reform implementation under the Barbados Economic Recovery and Transformation Plan 2026 (BERT 2026).
• The key pillars of the SBA include sustaining strong fiscal accounts, balancing debt sustainability with development needs, maintaining ample international reserves to support the exchange rate peg, implementing structural reforms, and building resilience to natural disasters.
• The IMF Deputy Managing Director, Dr Nigel Clarke, highlighted that Barbados’ implementation of BERT 2022 has reinforced macroeconomic stability, placed public debt on a downward path, rebuilt international reserves, restored access to capital markets, and completed important structural reforms.
• While the economic outlook remains stable, the IMF noted downside risks from geopolitical tensions, global policy uncertainty and vulnerability to natural disasters. It also stressed the need for structural reforms to boost medium-term growth, including tackling infrastructure bottlenecks, improving the business environment, and closing skills gaps.

(Sources: IMF & Nation News)

• The Organisation of Eastern Caribbean States (OECS) is considering deeper trade ties with the Dominican Republic and Panama as part of efforts to lower consumer prices across the Eastern Caribbean.
• Speaking after the OECS Summit in Antigua and Barbuda, Prime Minister Gaston Browne said the organisation has requested a temporary suspension of the Common External Tariff (CET) to facilitate greater imports from non-CARICOM markets.
• The proposal aims to give member states access to more affordable goods and food products amid rising living costs. Browne noted that Panama is one of the hemisphere’s largest commercial hubs, while the Dominican Republic could become a key supplier of competitively priced food and consumer goods.
• The OECS has asked its commission to conduct a study identifying products that can be sourced at lower costs from the Dominican Republic. The organisation also plans to engage CARICOM on suspending the tariff framework.
• The move could strengthen trade between the Dominican Republic and Eastern Caribbean nations, while helping reduce import costs and improve food security across the region.

(Source: Dominican Today)