• In the aftermath of Hurricane Melissa, Jamaica’s current account is expected to return to a deficit in the near and medium term as exports fall and imports rise.
• Jamaica’s recovery effort will require imported construction materials, machinery, fuel, food and medical supplies, which will raise the import bill and widen the trade deficit in the near term.
• Additionally, expectations are for Jamaica’s exports to fall, with service exports declining due to disruptions to tourism, and goods exports decreasing on the back of reduced bauxite production and shipment, as seen in the months following Hurricane Beryl.
• However, the current account will be supported by a likely surge in remittances, with the Jamaican diaspora increasing transfers in response to Hurricane Melissa. Remittances as a percentage of GDP rose from 15.3% in 2019 to 24.4% in 2021 as inflows surged in response to the pandemic, and remittances are expected to accelerate again in 2025 and 2026, buttressing Jamaica’s external position. Additionally, increased foreign aid will also support Jamaica's current account.
• That said, the external sector poses limited downside risk to macroeconomic stability, buttressed by a relatively benign and declining external debt profile, composition and healthy reserve levels. Overall external debt declined to 60.1% of GDP in Q1 2025 from 64.9% in Q1 2024, with short-term debt as a percentage of overall external debt falling from 18.6% to 17.1% over the same period. Nevertheless, while Jamaica has a strong track record of external debt reduction, the expected contraction in GDP, the impact of Hurricane Melissa on revenue inflows and a potential increase in foreign debt to fund recovery efforts could stall this downward trend.
• Additionally, remittances and tourism have supplied the central bank with ample reserves, acquired through surrender requirements, which reached US$6.1Bn in October 2025, covering an estimated 7.3 months of imports. These reserves will be a vital buffer during Jamaica's recovery, helping the central bank to support the local currency while ensuring that the island has the foreign currency necessary to pay for imports.
• Additionally, Jamaica’s net international investment position (NIIP) continued to improve, easing to -100.8% of GDP in Q1 2025, from an estimated -154.7% in Q1 2019, a positive development flagged by the International Monetary Fund (IMF). Furthermore, the composition of Jamaica’s NIIP helps to mitigate risk: direct investment accounted for 52.0% of total liabilities in Q1 2025, up from 48.5% in Q1 2021, while portfolio investment declined from 24.7% of total liabilities in Q1 2021 to just 20.6% in Q1 2025, underscoring Jamaica’s stable external position.

(Source: BMI, a Fitch Solutions Company)

• Jamaica’s Fair-Trading Commission (FTC) has noted that the sale of 100% of Massy Distribution (Jamaica) to Caribbean Distribution Partners (CPD), a subsidiary of Trinidad and Tobago’s (T&T’s) Agostini Group, will create a monopoly in the sale of insulin in Jamaica.
• In a notice released on November 20, the FTC indicated that its review of the proposed sale of Massy to CDP “identified significant competition concerns in the distribution of insulin products in Jamaica. Currently, three brands are available in Jamaica, and all are distributed by either Massy or Aventa, the rebranded name of Agostini’s pharmaceutical concerns.
• The transaction involves CDP, a subsidiary of Agostini Ltd., acquiring 100% of Massy Jamaica, a leading distributor of pharmaceuticals and consumer products in Jamaica. CDP described the acquisition as “strategic to the regional expansion of our group’s consumer products and pharmaceutical businesses.”
• However, the proposed transaction would create a monopoly distributor for these brands, according to the Commission. As such, to grant its non-objection, the FTC requires that competition be preserved in the insulin market. This entails the appointment of an independent distributor for the brand(s) currently distributed by either of the parties to the transaction.
• “Once a distributor is identified, and a formal agreement or commitment is submitted, the FTC will conduct due diligence to confirm that the new arrangement addresses its competition concerns. For example, the new distributor must not be affiliated with any company involved in the acquisition.”
• According to the parties, Massy’s consumer products division will be managed directly by Acado, while its pharmaceutical operations will be integrated with Health Brands Jamaica, which has since been rebranded as Aventa Jamaica under Agostini’s pharmaceutical umbrella. CDP is a 50/50 joint venture between Massy and Goddard of Barbados.

(Source: Trinidad and Tobago Guardian)

• Guyana is preparing for another major expansion of oil output, with the Uaru project set to start production in 2026. The development, located in the Stabroek Block, is the fifth project approved offshore the country. 
• It is expected to move the country’s production capacity to around 1.1 million barrels of oil per day. Guyana reached a new high of 900,000 barrels per day this month when the Yellowtail development achieved peak production, demonstrating the rapid pace of its offshore growth.
• Uaru targets more than 800 million barrels of recoverable oil. The US$12.7Bn project will feature up to 10 drill centers and 44 wells. It is designed to produce 250,000 barrels of oil per day at peak.
• Japanese contractor MODEC is constructing the Errea Wittu floating production, storage and offloading vessel for the development. The unit will process and store crude from the Uaru field once operations begin.
• The government highlighted two key upgrades in the Errea Wittu’s design. A combined-cycle gas turbine will supply power more efficiently and with lower greenhouse gas emissions. A closed-loop flare system will limit emissions during operations.

(Source: OIL Now)

• The Bank of Mexico (Banxico) cut its growth forecast for Mexico's economy to close to zero on Wednesday, amid bets by the bank's board that the country's weak economy will help bring sticky inflation to target.
• In its third quarter report, published on Wednesday, the bank forecast the gross domestic product of Latin America's second largest economy growing just 0.3% this year, down from its 0.6% forecast last quarter. The bank maintained its forecast for a 1.1% growth rate next year.
• The bank, in its report also slightly raised its projections for average annual core inflation for the fourth quarter of 2025 and the first two quarters of 2026. It similarly raised its forecasts for general inflation for the first two quarters of 2026. On the other hand, Banxico said it still projects headline and core inflation to meet the bank's 3% target by the third quarter of 2026.
• Banxico has cut its benchmark rate by four percentage points since embarking on a monetary easing cycle early last year. On November 6, the bank's board made its eleventh consecutive cut, bringing the rate down 25 basis points to 7.25%, its lowest since May 2022.
• The majority of the bank's five-member board this month justified the reduction in part by pointing to the bank's success in bringing headline inflation within one percentage point of the bank's 3.0% target. Annual headline inflation was 3.61% in the first half of November.
• The board also highlighted the weakness of Mexico's economy, which some members say is likely to continue to exert downward pressures on inflation.

(Source: Reuters)

• The number of Americans filing new applications for unemployment benefits fell to a seven-month low last week, suggesting layoffs remained low, though the labour market is struggling to generate enough jobs for those out of work, amid the economic uncertainty.
• The absence of labour market deterioration in the weekly jobless claims report from the Labour Department on Wednesday argued against the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates again next month, with inflation still elevated, economists said.
• The U.S. central bank's Beige Book report on Wednesday said employment decreased slightly in mid-November but noted "more districts reported contacts limiting headcount using hiring freezes, replacement-only hiring and attrition than through layoffs." It described economic activity as "little changed" since October.
• "Fed officials would need to see a significant weakening in labour market conditions to lower rates in December," said Matthew Martin, a senior U.S. economist at Oxford Economics. "There are some signs of softening in various private sector metrics, but that's not the signal coming from the jobless claims data."
• Initial claims for state unemployment benefits dropped 6,000 to a seasonally adjusted 216,000 for the week ended Nov. 22, the lowest level since April. Economists polled by Reuters had forecast 225,000 claims for the latest week.
• Economists say President Donald Trump's aggressive trade and immigration policies had created an environment where businesses are reluctant to lay off or hire more workers, leading to what they and policymakers call a "no hire, no fire" labour market.
• However, some companies, including Amazon, are stepping up job cuts as they integrate artificial intelligence into some roles. Economists expect these job cuts could show up in the claims data next year, though filings have not always in the past increased in tandem with announced layoffs.

(Source: Reuters)

• U.S. economic activity was little changed in recent weeks, though employment was weaker in about half of the Federal Reserve's (Fed) 12 districts and consumer spending declined, the U.S. central bank in its latest "Beige Book" report said on Wednesday, November 26, 2025. This is likely reinforcing concerns about the job market as the next interest rate decision nears. The report entails a compendium of survey results, interviews, and other qualitative data from its 12 regional banks.
• Published two weeks ahead of each Fed policy meeting, the report is meant to help central bankers assess the economy's health with timelier, and often more colourful, insight than is available in the official statistics.
• With the data vacuum left by the record 43-day government shutdown that extended into mid-November, the Beige Book should get more weight than usual in the deliberations among deeply divided Fed policymakers, following their decision last month to cut rates by a quarter of a percentage point for the second consecutive meeting. The policy rate now stands in the 3.75%-4.00% range.
• The data flow has resumed since the shutdown ended, but most of the reports issued over the past two weeks have been significantly dated, covering the period just before the shutdown began on October 1, and have offered almost no fresh insight into the health of the economy.
• One of the most current indicators, however, suggests the job market remains in a stable, gradually softening state.
• New claims for unemployment benefits fell last week to the lowest level since April, though the ranks of those remaining on benefits beyond a first week of assistance have plateaued near the highest level in about four years. Together, the figures point to no notable increase in layoffs despite a wave of job-cut announcements from big employers like Amazon, though those out of work are finding it harder to land a new job.
• Overall, interest rate futures markets reflect a high probability of another quarter-percentage-point reduction in borrowing costs at the Fed's December 9-10 meeting. Whatever the decision at next month's meeting, it is likely to be made over the objections of several policymakers and will come alongside a fresh batch of forecasts from Fed officials that will show how inclined they are to bring rates down further next year.

(Source: Reuters)

• Jamaica’s economy grew by an estimated 4.6% during the July to September 2025 quarter (Q3 2025), compared with the corresponding period in 2024, according to the Planning Institute of Jamaica (PIOJ). This is above the PIOJ’s previous expectation for Q3 growth in the range of 2%-3%. The estimated outturn largely reflected recovery from the low production experienced in Q3 2024 due to the passage of Hurricane Beryl, which caused damage estimated at J$56.7Bn and led to the 3.5% GDP decline in Q3 2024.
• For the quarter, both the goods-producing and services industries recorded growth. The goods-producing industry is estimated to have expanded by 10%, driven by increased output across all industries, while the services industry recorded a modest growth of 3%.
• For the goods-producing sector, the Agriculture, Forestry and Fishing industry grew by 23.9% based on the PIOJ’s production index, reflecting the full recovery from the effects of Hurricane Beryl. Higher production was recorded for all nine crop groups, while higher output was recorded for traditional export crops, and animal farming also increased. Mining and quarrying also grew by 3.8%, reflecting higher output in the bauxite and alumina and quarrying sub-industries. The manufacturing industry increased by an estimated 4.4% due to higher output in the food, beverages, and tobacco and other manufacturing sub-industries, while the construction industry was estimated to have grown by 4.8% reflecting estimated growth in both the building construction and other construction components of the industry.
• Meanwhile, the growth in the service industries was led by a 6.6% increase in the electricity, water supply and waste management industry, reflecting higher electricity and water consumption stemming from the recovery from the damage caused by Hurricane Beryl. The transport and storage industry grew by 5.2%. This was driven by an increase in the air transport subcomponent, reflecting a 5.6% upturn in passenger movement and growth in maritime transport activities, reflecting a 12.6% increase in total cargo handled. Finally, the accommodation and food service activities industry is estimated to have grown by 3.6%.
• Overall, for the first nine months of 2025, Jamaica’s real gross domestic product (GDP) was estimated to have increased by 2.4%. This reflected a higher real value added of 5% for the goods-producing industry and 1.6% for the services industry.

(Sources: JIS and PIOJ)

• Jamaica’s economy is bracing for its steepest quarterly decline in years as the aftermath of Hurricane Melissa hits key sectors, though officials project a return to growth in the final quarter of 2026. The Planning Institute of Jamaica (PIOJ) on Tuesday (November 25) forecast a contraction of 11% to 13% for the October to December 2025 quarter, with the full fiscal year 2025/2026 expected to record a 3 to 6 per cent decline in overall economic activity.
• Speaking during the PIOJ’s hybrid quarterly press briefing, Director General Dr Wayne Henry said the island’s economy had been on track for steady growth prior to the Category 5 hurricane. “Growth of 3.1% was estimated for the first half of the current fiscal year, and this was expected to continue throughout the second half,” he noted. However, Hurricane Melissa’s passage has altered that trajectory, placing substantial downward pressure on nearly every sector of the economy. The storm caused extensive damage to housing, electricity networks, roads, water supply infrastructure, and productive assets.
• Agriculture emerged as one of the hardest-hit sectors. Dr Henry highlighted that the seven most affected parishes account for 74% of land used for domestic crop production and a significant share of animal and export crop farming. Losses include farmlands, livestock, fishing equipment, and access roads.
• The accommodation and food services industry is also facing major disruptions. Nearly 89% of the island’s hotel room stock is concentrated in the parishes most affected by the hurricane, leading to temporary closures and restricted operations. This is compounded by the November 2025 U.S. travel advisory, which warns American visitors to reconsider travel to Jamaica, further reducing arrivals.
• Furthermore, critical infrastructure challenges extend to electricity, water, waste management, and transportation. “Full recovery of electricity generation and distribution, particularly in western parishes, is likely to be significantly delayed due to limited accessibility to some communities,” Dr Henry said. Restoration of the water supply is also dependent on electricity to power the pumping stations.
• The construction sector has experienced work stoppages on major projects, while damage to information and communication technology, roads, airports, and shipping ports is expected to reduce services and sales across multiple industries.
• Dr Henry warned that the October to December 2025 quarter could record Jamaica’s worst quarterly economic performance since the COVID-19 pandemic’s April to June 2020 downturn. Still, he offered cautious optimism for recovery. “The economy is expected to return to growth in the October to December 2026 quarter,” he said, signalling a potential rebound once repair and reconstruction efforts gain momentum.

(Sources: PIOJ & Caribbean National Weekly)

• Brazil's foreign direct investment (FDI) inflows through October have already surpassed last year's total, central bank data showed on Tuesday, as the government expects FDI to reach a record high this year.
• The improvement in FDI, considered a higher-quality form of financing because it reflects long-term investment in productive activity, should help offset a worsening current account balance in Latin America's largest economy.
• Year-to-date FDI reached US$74.26Bn after a higher-than-expected inflow in October, the central bank said, up 8.8% from a year earlier and above the US$74.09Bn recorded in all of 2024. The country drew US$10.94Bn in foreign direct investments last month, while economists polled by Reuters expected US$6.30Bn.
• Vice President Geraldo Alckmin said on Monday that Brazil was on track to set an FDI record this year. The country's highest annual inflow so far was in 2011, at US$102.43Bn.
• On the other hand, Brazil posted a US$5.12Bn current account deficit in October, wider than the US$4.8Bn expected in the Reuters poll. The year-to-date shortfall hit US$62.07Bn, a 20.5% year-on-year increase.
• The deteriorating scenario stems mainly from a weaker trade surplus, as imports have grown faster than exports amid resilient economic activity despite restrictive interest rates aimed at taming inflation.
• Over the 12 months through October, the current account deficit stood at 3.48% of gross domestic product (GDP) but was fully covered by FDI at 3.63% of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) - something that had not been seen since January.

(Source: Reuters)

• Former governor of the Central Bank of Barbados has proposed that the region import more a move that upends decades of thought in economics on managing developing countries like Barbados.
• Dr. Delisle Worrell suggested increased imports as part of bold policy reforms focused on currency stability, arguing that only these measures will unlock sustained foreign investment and lift the Caribbean out of decades-long economic stagnation. However, in his latest monthly newsletter, Dr Worrell, said: “The patriotic sentiment that Caribbean countries import too much is at odds with the reality that our standard of living in this region is made possible by imports. The fact is, the greater the level of imports, the higher the standard of living.
• “In order to increase the GDP of Caribbean economies, we must therefore increase our capacity to import. That means investing in tourist accommodation and services, exploiting oil, renewable energy and mineral resources, hosting more international business, financial and educational services, and investing in rum and other manufacturing facilities, all with a view to securing more foreign currency for imports.”
• Dr Worrell contended that foreign earnings depend entirely on the Caribbean’s capacity to produce, asserting that the export markets served by the region are so large that they can easily absorb whatever volume of goods and services Caribbean countries can offer.
• “In order to increase capacity to earn foreign currency,” said the author of several economic publications, “the Caribbean needs investment, the largest share of which must be financed in US dollars to pay for imported construction materials, equipment, supplies, fuel, vehicles, and other requirements. Countries can attract this needed foreign finance insofar as they provide a competitive environment for investment.”
• He noted that, in economic terms, import dependence is a structural characteristic of small economies like those found in the Caribbean, but this should not be viewed as a weakness, but rather as an inherent feature of the economy, similar to the country’s time zone.
• The economist recommended that new capacity be developed through investments and financing in foreign currency to cover import costs. “The most important policies our governments can pursue to promote investment are - maintaining a stable and predictable exchange rate for the domestic currency; and prudent management of public finances to ensure the country remains creditworthy in the financial markets of New York and London.
• “With a stable exchange rate and an investment-grade rating for government foreign debt, countries are assured of foreign investor interest in the internationally competitive sectors of the economy. The final hurdle for potential foreign investors is often the efficiency of the public sector.”
• Pointing to robust increases in foreign direct investment as the barometer of a country’s progress, Dr Worrell said: “An increase in foreign direct investment across the region would be the surest indicator that Caribbean countries are lifting themselves out of the economic doldrums in which they have been stuck for many years.”

(Source: Barbados Today)