• Jamaica’s economy grew by an estimated 4.6% during the July to September 2025 quarter (Q3 2025), compared with the corresponding period in 2024, according to the Planning Institute of Jamaica (PIOJ). This is above the PIOJ’s previous expectation for Q3 growth in the range of 2%-3%. The estimated outturn largely reflected recovery from the low production experienced in Q3 2024 due to the passage of Hurricane Beryl, which caused damage estimated at J$56.7Bn and led to the 3.5% GDP decline in Q3 2024.
• For the quarter, both the goods-producing and services industries recorded growth. The goods-producing industry is estimated to have expanded by 10%, driven by increased output across all industries, while the services industry recorded a modest growth of 3%.
• For the goods-producing sector, the Agriculture, Forestry and Fishing industry grew by 23.9% based on the PIOJ’s production index, reflecting the full recovery from the effects of Hurricane Beryl. Higher production was recorded for all nine crop groups, while higher output was recorded for traditional export crops, and animal farming also increased. Mining and quarrying also grew by 3.8%, reflecting higher output in the bauxite and alumina and quarrying sub-industries. The manufacturing industry increased by an estimated 4.4% due to higher output in the food, beverages, and tobacco and other manufacturing sub-industries, while the construction industry was estimated to have grown by 4.8% reflecting estimated growth in both the building construction and other construction components of the industry.
• Meanwhile, the growth in the service industries was led by a 6.6% increase in the electricity, water supply and waste management industry, reflecting higher electricity and water consumption stemming from the recovery from the damage caused by Hurricane Beryl. The transport and storage industry grew by 5.2%. This was driven by an increase in the air transport subcomponent, reflecting a 5.6% upturn in passenger movement and growth in maritime transport activities, reflecting a 12.6% increase in total cargo handled. Finally, the accommodation and food service activities industry is estimated to have grown by 3.6%.
• Overall, for the first nine months of 2025, Jamaica’s real gross domestic product (GDP) was estimated to have increased by 2.4%. This reflected a higher real value added of 5% for the goods-producing industry and 1.6% for the services industry.

(Sources: JIS and PIOJ)

• Jamaica’s economy is bracing for its steepest quarterly decline in years as the aftermath of Hurricane Melissa hits key sectors, though officials project a return to growth in the final quarter of 2026. The Planning Institute of Jamaica (PIOJ) on Tuesday (November 25) forecast a contraction of 11% to 13% for the October to December 2025 quarter, with the full fiscal year 2025/2026 expected to record a 3 to 6 per cent decline in overall economic activity.
• Speaking during the PIOJ’s hybrid quarterly press briefing, Director General Dr Wayne Henry said the island’s economy had been on track for steady growth prior to the Category 5 hurricane. “Growth of 3.1% was estimated for the first half of the current fiscal year, and this was expected to continue throughout the second half,” he noted. However, Hurricane Melissa’s passage has altered that trajectory, placing substantial downward pressure on nearly every sector of the economy. The storm caused extensive damage to housing, electricity networks, roads, water supply infrastructure, and productive assets.
• Agriculture emerged as one of the hardest-hit sectors. Dr Henry highlighted that the seven most affected parishes account for 74% of land used for domestic crop production and a significant share of animal and export crop farming. Losses include farmlands, livestock, fishing equipment, and access roads.
• The accommodation and food services industry is also facing major disruptions. Nearly 89% of the island’s hotel room stock is concentrated in the parishes most affected by the hurricane, leading to temporary closures and restricted operations. This is compounded by the November 2025 U.S. travel advisory, which warns American visitors to reconsider travel to Jamaica, further reducing arrivals.
• Furthermore, critical infrastructure challenges extend to electricity, water, waste management, and transportation. “Full recovery of electricity generation and distribution, particularly in western parishes, is likely to be significantly delayed due to limited accessibility to some communities,” Dr Henry said. Restoration of the water supply is also dependent on electricity to power the pumping stations.
• The construction sector has experienced work stoppages on major projects, while damage to information and communication technology, roads, airports, and shipping ports is expected to reduce services and sales across multiple industries.
• Dr Henry warned that the October to December 2025 quarter could record Jamaica’s worst quarterly economic performance since the COVID-19 pandemic’s April to June 2020 downturn. Still, he offered cautious optimism for recovery. “The economy is expected to return to growth in the October to December 2026 quarter,” he said, signalling a potential rebound once repair and reconstruction efforts gain momentum.

(Sources: PIOJ & Caribbean National Weekly)

• Brazil's foreign direct investment (FDI) inflows through October have already surpassed last year's total, central bank data showed on Tuesday, as the government expects FDI to reach a record high this year.
• The improvement in FDI, considered a higher-quality form of financing because it reflects long-term investment in productive activity, should help offset a worsening current account balance in Latin America's largest economy.
• Year-to-date FDI reached US$74.26Bn after a higher-than-expected inflow in October, the central bank said, up 8.8% from a year earlier and above the US$74.09Bn recorded in all of 2024. The country drew US$10.94Bn in foreign direct investments last month, while economists polled by Reuters expected US$6.30Bn.
• Vice President Geraldo Alckmin said on Monday that Brazil was on track to set an FDI record this year. The country's highest annual inflow so far was in 2011, at US$102.43Bn.
• On the other hand, Brazil posted a US$5.12Bn current account deficit in October, wider than the US$4.8Bn expected in the Reuters poll. The year-to-date shortfall hit US$62.07Bn, a 20.5% year-on-year increase.
• The deteriorating scenario stems mainly from a weaker trade surplus, as imports have grown faster than exports amid resilient economic activity despite restrictive interest rates aimed at taming inflation.
• Over the 12 months through October, the current account deficit stood at 3.48% of gross domestic product (GDP) but was fully covered by FDI at 3.63% of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) - something that had not been seen since January.

(Source: Reuters)

• Former governor of the Central Bank of Barbados has proposed that the region import more a move that upends decades of thought in economics on managing developing countries like Barbados.
• Dr. Delisle Worrell suggested increased imports as part of bold policy reforms focused on currency stability, arguing that only these measures will unlock sustained foreign investment and lift the Caribbean out of decades-long economic stagnation. However, in his latest monthly newsletter, Dr Worrell, said: “The patriotic sentiment that Caribbean countries import too much is at odds with the reality that our standard of living in this region is made possible by imports. The fact is, the greater the level of imports, the higher the standard of living.
• “In order to increase the GDP of Caribbean economies, we must therefore increase our capacity to import. That means investing in tourist accommodation and services, exploiting oil, renewable energy and mineral resources, hosting more international business, financial and educational services, and investing in rum and other manufacturing facilities, all with a view to securing more foreign currency for imports.”
• Dr Worrell contended that foreign earnings depend entirely on the Caribbean’s capacity to produce, asserting that the export markets served by the region are so large that they can easily absorb whatever volume of goods and services Caribbean countries can offer.
• “In order to increase capacity to earn foreign currency,” said the author of several economic publications, “the Caribbean needs investment, the largest share of which must be financed in US dollars to pay for imported construction materials, equipment, supplies, fuel, vehicles, and other requirements. Countries can attract this needed foreign finance insofar as they provide a competitive environment for investment.”
• He noted that, in economic terms, import dependence is a structural characteristic of small economies like those found in the Caribbean, but this should not be viewed as a weakness, but rather as an inherent feature of the economy, similar to the country’s time zone.
• The economist recommended that new capacity be developed through investments and financing in foreign currency to cover import costs. “The most important policies our governments can pursue to promote investment are - maintaining a stable and predictable exchange rate for the domestic currency; and prudent management of public finances to ensure the country remains creditworthy in the financial markets of New York and London.
• “With a stable exchange rate and an investment-grade rating for government foreign debt, countries are assured of foreign investor interest in the internationally competitive sectors of the economy. The final hurdle for potential foreign investors is often the efficiency of the public sector.”
• Pointing to robust increases in foreign direct investment as the barometer of a country’s progress, Dr Worrell said: “An increase in foreign direct investment across the region would be the surest indicator that Caribbean countries are lifting themselves out of the economic doldrums in which they have been stuck for many years.”

(Source: Barbados Today)

• Early signs on Japan's annual wage negotiations for next year point to another round of solid pay hikes despite profit pressure from U.S. tariffs, bolstering the case for the Bank of Japan (BOJ) to raise interest rates further. The wage outlook has drawn renewed attention after BOJ Governor Kazuo Ueda said he wanted "a bit more data" on the initial momentum of next year's wage talks - notably whether firms hit by U.S. tariffs would keep lifting pay.
• Labour unions have already made clear they will again demand bumper pay hikes. Sustained wage growth would underpin private consumption, giving the BOJ confidence to raise rates without derailing Japan's economic recovery. Despite hefty increases in recent years, real wage growth has remained negative as core consumer inflation has held above the BOJ's 2% target.
• Rengo, Japan's largest labour union umbrella group, with 7 million members, is seeking wage hikes of 5% or more in 2026. That is what Rengo asked for in 2025, resulting in the biggest pay hike in 34 years. The top union for automakers, among the industries hit hardest by U.S. tariffs, also has no plans to scale back its wage demands at labour talks for next year, despite profit squeezes.
• Japan's annual wage negotiations typically start with unions drafting demands late in the closing year, followed by formal talks early the next year, with settlements announced in March. Companies, to be sure, may not heed union demands on 2026 wages as the hit from higher U.S. levies on shipments of Japanese goods is likely to intensify in the coming months, clouding the outlook for the export-reliant economy.
• But so far, manufacturers are holding up, with a Reuters poll this month showing sentiment hit a nearly four-year high in November, buoyed by softness in the yen and solid orders. A tight labour market is also likely to pressure companies to stick with generous pay hikes. A separate Reuters survey this month showed 72% of respondents intend to raise wages next year at about the same rate as in 2025.
• The strain from labour shortages is particularly acute in the restaurant industry. Gastropub chain operator Watami said it will offer multi-year hikes averaging 7% annually from 2026 for about 1,200 full-time employees in Japan. A November survey by the Japan Centre for Economic Research showed economists projecting that wage hikes would average 4.88% next year. That is higher than the 4.74% estimated in January for this year's wage talks, which resulted in a 5.52% increase

(Source: Reuters)

• Britain's main minimum wage rate will rise by 4.1% to 12.71 pounds (US$16.67) an hour next April to keep up with average pay, the government said on Tuesday, despite complaints from some employers that this will push up prices.
• Britain's minimum wage is the second-highest in Europe relative to average pay and has risen by more than 60% since 2019 as successive governments sought to lift it to two-thirds of median hourly earnings. Finance minister Rachel Reeves said the new increase, which follows a 6.7% rise earlier this year, was needed "so that those on low incomes are properly rewarded for their hard work"
• The increase will benefit 2.4 million workers aged 21 and over, while a further 300,000 apprentices and workers aged under 21 will get a rise of 6.0%-8.5% as the government continues to phase out lower minimum wages for these groups. However, the increase drew criticism from Britain's hospitality industry, which said it would lead to higher prices.
• Britain had the highest inflation rate of any major advanced economy at 3.6% in October, driven in part by faster wage growth since the COVID-19 pandemic. While the Bank of England expects inflation to return to its 2% target by mid-2027, many of its policymakers think wage growth faster than about 3% will make hitting that goal harder, due to persistently weak productivity growth.

(Source: Reuters)

• Driven by robust topline performance, Seprod Limited (SEPROD’s) earnings surged by 95.3% for the quarter ended September 30, 2025 (Q3 2025).
• Revenue came in at J$37.87Bn, up 7.9% year-over-year (YoY), reflecting growth across the major business segments for the regional manufacturer and distributor. The company benefited from a J$1.24Bn gain on investment property and improved performance in the dairy manufacturing operations. Notably, the dairy operations benefited from $700Mn investment in increased packaging and processing capacity, which is expected to increase production output and productivity, going forward.
• Direct costs grew faster, up 10.5% to J$27.96Bn. Consequently, while there was a 1.2% uptick in gross profits to $9.91Bn, gross margins decreased to 26.2% from 27.9%.
• The group also had a 161.6% increase in other income to $$1.44Bn, and continued easing of operating expenses (opex), which resulted in an improvement in operating income (+27.5%). Notably, opex growth is cooling relative to the first two quarters of the financial year. The slowdown reflects Seprod’s ongoing strategy to capture synergies from recent acquisitions and strengthen cost management strategies across the Group. Consequently, Q3 operating margins improved from 6.8% to 8.0% for the YoY.
• Meanwhile, Q3 finance costs grew (+9.6%), due to higher debt associated with strategic investments and expansion. Notably, Seprod’s subsidiary, ASBH, increased its stake in Caribbean Producers (Jamaica) Limited (CPJ) from 45% to 75% effective December 31, 2024. This involved a share swap, not borrowing, but its debt and finance costs were ultimately consolidated in Seprod’s financials.
• Nonetheless, Q3 2025 net profit jumped to J$1.62Bn compared to J$653.8Mn in Q3 2024, and net profit margins increased to 4.3% from 2.4%. However, despite the solid quarterly performance, for the nine months ended September 30, 2025 (9M 2025), net profit saw a marginal increase of 2.8%. The outturn reflects elevated operating and finance expenses in both the first and second quarters, despite Seprod's robust Q3 earnings.
• Looking ahead, the impact of Hurricane Melissa on Seprod’s operations is expected to be mixed, reflecting the broad diversity of the Group.  In the near term, the company’s strategy includes shifting a portion of its distribution efforts toward the retail trade, particularly within business segments that have traditionally been concentrated among large customers in the tourism and hospitality sectors. The company also noted that it will continue to pursue enhancements in cost efficiency as part of its ongoing efforts to strengthen profitability.
• Seprod’s stock price has declined by 6.7% year-to-date, closing at $81.34 as at Tuesday, November 25, 2025. At this price, the stock trades at a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 23.3x, which is higher than the Main Market Distribution and Manufacturing Sector’s average of 17.3x.

(Sources: Seprod Financial Release & NCBCM Research)

• During its meetings on November 20^th and 21^st, the Bank of Jamaica’s (BOJ’s) Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) deliberated on its monetary policy stance in the context of the post-hurricane environment and expressed its concern regarding the devastation caused by Hurricane Melissa and the considerable hardship and dislocation being suffered by many Jamaicans.
• The MPC determined that preserving a stable macroeconomic environment will be essential to the recovery effort at the individual, household and national levels. In this regard, the BOJ noted that it remains committed to ensuring that the inflationary effects of the hurricane are managed to limit the hardships on vulnerable groups and to facilitate the conditions necessary for long-term economic recovery.
• With this in mind, the Committee decided unanimously to hold the policy rate at 5.75% per annum and take special pre-emptive measures to preserve relative stability in the foreign exchange (FX) market, which will enable inflation to return to the target range by 2027.
• The decision to hold the policy rate reflects expectations that headline inflation will rise sharply above the 4%–6% target in the near term and that core inflation will also exceed the range by mid-2026. Additionally, the government's plans to temporarily suspend fiscal rules will increase spending and add to demand pressures. Inflation risks are, however, tilted upward due to the possibility of stronger-than-expected reconstruction demand, higher inflation expectations and potential supply constraints, though a slower-than-anticipated recovery in domestic demand could ease pressures.
• Meanwhile, the special pre-emptive measures in the FX market contemplate the need for increased imports to support the rehabilitation and reconstruction efforts. The MPC noted that the Bank’s strong international reserves reinforce its ability to support the foreign exchange market. In this regard, the Bank has sold US$210Mn to the market since the passage of Hurricane Melissa on October 28^th. In the near term, the Bank will supply foreign currency directly to certain energy-sector entities and will take proactive steps to maintain sufficient foreign currency liquidity in the broader market, including bringing back advance notices for intervention sales.
• The next policy decision announcement is scheduled for December 18, 2025. BMI expects the BOJ to maintain its policy rate at 5.75% in 2025 and at 5.50% in 2026 in response to increased domestic price pressures. That said, Jamaica’s monetary authorities have successfully stabilised domestic inflation expectations by implementing a credible inflation targeting monetary policy regime in 2020, a tailwind for post-storm price stability. As such, BMI analysts hold a more optimistic outlook than the BOJ, with analysts anticipating that core inflation is less likely to increase. This supports their belief that underlying inflationary pressures will remain subdued and will return to the BOJ's target range by the first quarter of 2026.

(Sources: BOJ and BMI, a Fitch Solutions Company)

• Guyana has officially become the world’s largest oil producer per capita, a status long predicted since 2021 and now confirmed following the rise in national output to 900,000 barrels per day on November 12, 2025.
• The milestone was confirmed, following the full ramp-up of production across the Stabroek Block developments. The country, with a population of roughly 750,000, now produces more oil per person than any other nation.
• Arthur Deakin, who served as Co-Director of Energy at Americas Market Intelligence, first made the forecast in 2021. He said, “Yellowtail would propel Guyana to be the 23rd largest oil producer in the world and 4th in Latin America,” adding that the project would also make Guyana the world’s largest oil producer per capita.  In 2025, that prediction materialised.
• Being the world’s largest oil producer per capita means the volume of oil produced, when divided by the number of citizens, exceeds that of every other oil-producing country. Guyana’s output now equates to more than one barrel per person per day, an extraordinary ratio that highlights the scale of offshore production relative to its population.
• Guyana has advanced rapidly from producing 120,000 barrels per day just five years ago. More than US$60 billion has been invested to date across seven approved projects in the Stabroek Block. The Uaru and Whiptail developments are expected to begin production in 2026 and 2027, each adding 250,000 barrels per day. Hammerhead will follow in 2029 with 150,000 barrels per day, while the proposed Longtail project remains under review.
• Total output could reach 1.7 million barrels per day by 2030, reinforcing Guyana’s per capita dominance in the global oil industry.

(Source: Reuters)

• Prof. Roger Hosein warned that Trinidad & Tobago (T&T) cannot afford a 10.0% salary increase for public servants, stressing that wage-setting cannot be treated as routine when GDP has fallen almost 20.0% since 2015, non-energy growth remains weak, energy output is declining, reserves are falling, and the country’s macroeconomic space is the tightest it has been in 25 years. He said the long-term health of the economy, not short-term politics, is what protects public servants.
• He cautioned that raising wages without productivity gains or new revenue would sharply strain the fiscal framework, as the wage bill would absorb an increasing share of non-energy revenue, compress the Government’s budget constraint, crowd out capital expenditure, weaken long-run productivity, and potentially force job losses as the State substitutes away from labour through hiring freezes, headcount cuts, or technological replacement.
• Hosein highlighted the enormous arrears burden tied to a 10% settlement, noting that backpay for the entire public service could reach roughly $16Bn once cost of living allowance (COLA) consolidation is included. Even if limited to the Public Services Association (PSA) and National Union of government and Federated Workers (NUGFW), arrears fall between $4Bn and $7Bn, while unresolved arrears across wider State entities, such as T&TEC, could push the total to about $27.0Bn. These numbers represent obligations that would have to be financed through higher debt and reduced State capital injections.
• As such, T&T’s fiscal balance consistently collapses into deficit once wages exceed $7–8Bn, demonstrating a structural expenditure problem in which recurrent spending grows faster than revenue in a stagnant, mature energy-based economy. Rising debt service, from about US$169.0Mn in 2015 to over US$800.0Mn in 2024, further reduces fiscal space and makes a 10% wage increase risky for solvency and employment levels.
• Hosein warned that capital expenditure has already been heavily compressed relative to the wage bill, with wages now over 230.0% of capital expenditure compared with 144% in 2015. Cutting capital spending further to fund a wage increase would undermine the key budget item that supports long-term growth, reduce competitiveness, weaken diversification efforts, lower future revenue elasticity, and worsen pressures on foreign exchange at a time when reserves have fallen from US$9.9Bn in 2015 to about US$4.6Bn in 2025.
• He also noted that higher public-sector wages raise domestic costs, making exports less competitive and imports cheaper, thereby worsening Dutch-disease effects and reducing the country’s ability to earn foreign exchange. In an economy with structurally weaker gas output, a shrinking labour force, rising pension obligations and tightening FX availability, a 10.0% wage increase could destabilise fiscal anchors that protect jobs, public services, and long-run growth.
• Hosein concluded that if the Government insists on the 10.0% increase, it should phase arrears over at least three fiscal years, avoid COLA consolidation, minimise allowance adjustments to prevent permanent cost escalation, and consider partial settlement through non-cash instruments such as leave swaps or HDC-type certificates. These tools could soften the fiscal shock, though they still require careful limits, and he emphasised that solvency, investment, competitiveness, not unaffordable wage obligations, are what safeguard public-sector workers in the long term.

(Source: Trinidad Express)