• The European Central Bank (ECB) kept its key interest rate on hold Thursday, April 30, 2026, as it warned that risks to growth and inflation had “intensified” as a result of the war in the Middle East. The central bank for the 21 countries that use the euro left its benchmark deposit rate at 2.0%, where it has been since June last year.
• In a statement, the bank said that while its previous assessment of the inflation outlook was largely unchanged, “the upside risks to inflation and the downside risks to growth have intensified.” It said its governing council remained committed to setting monetary policy to ensure that inflation stabilises at the 2% target in the medium term.
• Acknowledging that the war in the Middle East had led to a sharp increase in energy prices, pushing up inflation and weighing on economic sentiment, the ECB noted that “the implications of the war for medium-term inflation and economic activity will depend on the intensity and duration of the energy price shock and the scale of its indirect and second-round effects.”
• “The longer the war continues, and the longer energy prices remain high, the stronger the likely impact on broader inflation and the economy,” the bank stressed. The ECB noted that it would closely monitor the situation and take a data-dependent and meeting-by-meeting approach to determining its monetary policy stance. Policymakers would not pre-commit to a particular rate path, it emphasised.
• The ECB’s decision came after flash data out Thursday showed inflation in the euro zone jumped to 3% in April, driven largely by a rise in energy costs in the region. Growth slowed in the first quarter, expanding by a meager 0.1%.

(Sources: CNBC & Euractiv)

• The Bank of England (BOE) kept interest ​rates on hold on Thursday, April 30, 2026, and set out a range of possible economic impacts from the Iran war, the worst of which might entail "forceful" rate rises, while less damaging outcomes may not require any increase ‌at all. Facing deep uncertainty about the duration of the conflict and the damage it will wreak on Britain's economy, the Monetary Policy Committee voted 8-1 to keep the BoE's benchmark Bank Rate at 3.75% as only Chief Economist, Huw Pill, sought a hike to 4%.
• The decision was in line with expectations in a Reuters poll of economists, but investors responded by scaling back their bets on BoE rate hikes this year. A day after the U.S. Federal Reserve kept rates unchanged, and shortly before the European Central Bank stayed ​on hold too, the MPC said it would monitor the Middle East closely.
• Faced with such deep uncertainty over the war, the BoE opted not to publish a central economic forecast. Instead, it produced three scenarios based on energy prices and different degrees of second-round effects. Britain is seen as highly vulnerable to the jump in energy prices due to its heavy use of natural gas.
• Under the most damaging Scenario C, where oil prices peak at $127 a barrel and remain above $100 until mid-2028, inflation could peak at 6.2% in early 2027. This is almost double its most recent reading, and projections indicate that prices would stay above the BoE's 2% target for the coming three years, based on current market expectations for rates. If that risk materialised, it was "likely to warrant a forceful tightening in monetary policy," the BoE ​said.
• However, Scenarios A and B - which show oil ​prices falling to around $80 a barrel within a few ⁠months - would require a "less restrictive policy stance" with the rise in market-based interest rates since the start of the war helping to offset inflation pressure. Governor Andrew Bailey thought the most likely outcome was Scenario B, under which inflation peaks at a little over 3.5% at the end of 2026 before falling back to close to 2%.
• Nevertheless, the BoE expressed that some MPC members "might prefer to act early," while others could wait for more evidence of inflation getting ​stuck too high. While there was a risk of "material second-round effects" from the energy price shock - such as demands for higher pay or companies raising prices rather than absorbing higher costs - the jobs market was weakening, and a rise in financial market borrowing costs would limit inflation.

(Source: Reuters)

• Mexico's economy contracted 0.8% in the first quarter of 2026 from the 0.9% recorded in the previous quarter, preliminary data showed on Thursday, April 30, 2026. This marks the largest decline in a quarter since late 2024, and undershoots the 0.5% decline expected by economists in a Reuters poll. The weakness comes ahead of the June 2026 FIFA World Cup, which is expected to provide only a modest, temporary boost to economic activity.
• All sectors ​in Mexico's ⁠economy registered declines during the January-to-March period. The primary sector had the sharpest dip, down 1.4%. Secondary and tertiary activities, respectively covering manufacturing and services, declined 1.1% and 0.6% in ⁠a ​sequential basis. Compared with the same period a year earlier, ​growth in the first quarter was a modest 0.1%, below economists' expectations for 0.8%.
• According to Itau Chief Economist, Mario Mesquita, near‑term momentum remains subdued. ​However, a gradual recovery is expected, supported by firmer domestic demand and a ​modest boost from the 2026 FIFA World Cup soccer tournament.
• Itau estimates that the World Cup, which Mexico is co-hosting along with the United States (U.S.) ​and Canada, will add 0.1 percentage point to Mexico's annual Gross Domestic Product growth forecast at 1.1% ​for 2026, compared with growth in 2025 of 0.8%.
• Notwithstanding, analysts expect global trade tensions to weigh ‌on ⁠growth and to impact policy decisions by the Bank of Mexico, also known as Banxico. Notably, the Central Bank's decision in March to cut its benchmark interest rate by 25 basis points to 6.75% was divided, with board ​members signalling the need for greater caution. Capital Economics analysts said there is a strong case for a rate cut of 25 basis points at Banxico's meeting next week.

(Source: Reuters)

• The World Bank, in a recent assessment of Latin America and the Caribbean (LAC), noted that Guyana’s rapidly expanding oil-driven economy must be carefully managed. While some Caribbean countries continue to struggle with high debt, oil-producing states like Guyana face a different but equally complex challenge - managing volatile revenues as government spending accelerates.
• The report noted that countries benefiting from oil production, like Guyana, must avoid procyclicality where spending rises sharply during periods of high revenues but becomes difficult to sustain when prices fall. Further, it noted that public debt trends remain uneven across the Caribbean and Central America.
• While several countries have reduced debt-to-GDP ratios through economic growth and fiscal consolidation, helping to stabilise public finances and bolster fiscal credibility, others continue to face significant sustainability challenges. The findings highlighted divergent economic trends across the region. The bank noted that among commodity exporters, Trinidad and Tobago and Suriname experienced sharp economic contractions during the pandemic due to falling international commodity prices, but have since rebounded alongside price recovery.
• In contrast, it highlighted Guyana for its exceptional performance, recording sustained and rapid Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth since 2020, driven by the scaling up of offshore oil production. The expansion has been accompanied by rising fiscal revenues, improved external balances, and a declining public debt-to-GDP ratio. However, the pace of growth also underscores the importance of strengthening public investment management, building institutional capacity, and ensuring that oil wealth translates into broad-based and inclusive development.
• Guyana has established mitigating mechanisms through its Natural Resource Fund, which governs the withdrawal and use of oil revenues based on a rules-based framework. This structure, supported by guidance from institutions such as the International Monetary Fund (IMF), is designed to smooth spending over time, reduce volatility, and limit excessive fiscal expansion during periods of high oil prices, thereby helping to contain the risks highlighted.

(Source: Kaieteur News)

• The House of Representatives passed the National Reconstruction and Resilience Authority (NaRRA) Act. The NaRRA Act will serve as the central coordinating authority for post-hurricane reconstruction, designed to eliminate bureaucracy, fragmentation, and project delays.
• It will also function as a centre of technical excellence for project preparation and delivery, ensuring that the quality of national plans matches the scale of the country’s ambitions.
• Closing the debate on the Bill, Prime Minister, Dr. the Most Hon. Andrew Holness, addressed the Opposition’s suggestion to refer the legislation to a Joint Select Committee of Parliament. “We on this (Government) side, we have taken a decision that, as far as possible, we’re bringing all our Bills to a Joint Select Committee. That’s a decision that we took after the experience with the NIDS (National Identification System), subject, of course, to emergency situations or great urgency. I have heard the undertaking that there would be a commitment on the side of the Opposition to have the Joint Select Committee turned around very quickly,” Dr. Holness said.
• The Prime Minister reiterated that NaRRA’s functions will be clearly defined and that the entity will operate within a fixed timeframe. It will also be vested with special powers to fast-track development approvals and procurement, enabling the execution of resilient infrastructure projects at a scale and speed unprecedented in Jamaica. Following its passage in the Lower House, the legislation will now proceed to the Senate for approval.
• The House’s passage of the NaRRA Act is set to dramatically accelerate Jamaica’s post-hurricane rebuilding efforts. Operating as a centralised, temporary authority equipped with special powers to expedite procurement and development approvals, NaRRA is designed to cut through traditional bureaucratic red tape and project fragmentation

(Sources: JIS & NCBCM Research)

• The Statistical Institute of Jamaica reported a divergence in producer price movements across key sectors in March 2026. The Producer Price Index (PPI) for the Mining & Quarrying industry declined by 0.9%, while the Manufacturing index recorded a 3.1% increase.
• The contraction in Mining & Quarrying was primarily driven by a 0.9% decline in the dominant ‘Bauxite Mining & Alumina Processing’ segment, alongside a marginal 0.2% reduction in ‘Other Mining & Quarrying’.
• Conversely, the expansion in Manufacturing was supported by price increases in ‘Food, Beverages & Tobacco’ (+0.3%) and a sharp uptick in ‘Refined Petroleum Products’ (+16.0%), the latter being the principal contributor to overall sectoral growth.
• For the period March 2025 to March 2026, the point-to-point (P2P) producer price index for the Mining & Quarrying industry contracted significantly by 31.7%, reflecting a steep 33.1% decline in ‘Bauxite Mining & Alumina Processing’. In contrast, the P2P index for Manufacturing rose by 5.6% over the same period, underpinned by gains in ‘Food, Beverages & Tobacco’ (+3.1%) and ‘Refined Petroleum Products’ (+16.4%).
• The global bauxite market is currently experiencing significant oversupply, largely driven by record exports from Guinea, the world’s largest exporter of bauxite. Guinea’s bauxite output jumped by 25% in the first quarter of 2026, which has led to a nearly 50% drop in prices since January 2025. The PPI is likely to remain influenced by the further surplus in 2026, which could continue to weigh on prices in the Mining & Quarrying sector as demand for bauxite and alumina levels off, given China’s strict national ceiling of 45 million tons on primarily aluminium production. That said, the Guinean government has intervened by implementing export restrictions, which could offset these declines.
• In contrast, the Manufacturing index may continue to experience upward pressure, with the crude price surging past US$100/bbl as tensions in the Middle East intensify. Furthermore, Liquefied Natural Gas (LNG), which accounts for 70% of local power generation, has seen prices climb by 33.0% since the onset of the conflict. The resulting increase in energy costs is likely to feed directly into manufacturing expenses through higher production costs, with further volatility expected.

(Sources: STATIN, Reuters, & NCBCM Research)

• Following the completion of its investment Debottleneck Project (Kiln Expansion) in 2025, and the influx of reconstruction demand post-Hurricane Melissa, Caribbean Cement Company Limited (CCC) saw earnings for its first quarter ended March 31, 2026 (Q1 2026)  rise 52.8% to J$3.05Bn.  This was primarily due to a mixture of higher revenues, which outpaced expenses.
• Q1 2026 revenues rose to J$9.26Bn (+12.9%) year-over-year, driven by higher sales volumes from sustained local demand associated with ongoing recovery activities following Hurricane Melissa.  
• Revenue growth was met by a modest 2.9% increase in direct costs to J$4.55Bn. The modest increase reflected operational efficiencies achieved at CCC’s production facility, and reducing unit production costs, along with management’s continued focus on cost discipline. With revenue growth outpacing direct expense, gross profits grew by 24.6% to $4.71Bn, and gross margins rose over the quarter to 50.9% to 46.1%.
• Operating expenses (+4.7%) also rose at a more modest pace than revenues. Notably, distribution and logistics expenses, which grew by 25.9% amid higher volumes of cement being sold, were offset by the cost savings from Administrative (-16.9%) and Selling (-19.3%) expenses. Consequently, operating margins increased from 32.8% to 38.2%.
• Despite a modest earnings contraction in 2025, driven by a scheduled maintenance shutdown in the first half and weather-related disruptions in the latter half, the outlook for 2026 appears robust for CCC. The company’s J$6.7Bn debottlenecking investment has materially enhanced kiln capacity, positioning it to meet elevated post-hurricane demand, advance its export strategy, and improve overall operating efficiency. These capacity gains are already evident, with the company recording all-time high monthly cement sales of approximately 96,000 metric tonnes in February.
• Looking ahead, expanded capacity mixed with robust demand is expected to underpin continued strong performance for CCC. Fresh off its kiln expansion and supported by its quasi-monopoly position, CCC is well placed to capitalise on the anticipated rise in cement demand. This positions the company to meet recovery-related demand from Melissa while maintaining sufficient inventory to expand its market share across CARICOM markets.
• However, the outlook is not without risks, particularly from rising fuel and energy costs linked to geopolitical tensions, for which management has indicated that mitigation strategies are being implemented to contain potential margin pressures and preserve operational stability. Additionally, weather-related challenges, particularly heavy rainfall, temporarily impacted production in April due to challenges with raw materials and equipment and could continue to disrupt output. However, measures have since been introduced to stabilise affected equipment and improve operating conditions.
• As at the close of trading on April 30^th, CCC shares closed at J$102.59, reflecting a 0.85% year-to-date increase. At this price, the shares trade at a P/E of 12.53x, which is below the Main Market Energy, Industrials and Materials Sector of 21.88x.

  (Sources: Carib Cement Company Ltd. & NCBCM Research)

• Jamaica’s trade deficit widened in 2025 by US$490.5Mn to -US$5,871.5Mn, as a broad-based contraction in domestic export sectors collided with rising domestic demand for imported raw materials and consumer goods. This dynamic pushed the export-to-import coverage ratio down to 22.0% (from 26.2% in 2024), meaning Jamaica earned only US$0.22 for every US$1.00 spent on imports.
• The total value of imports for January to December 2025 increased by 3.2% to US$7.52Bn. This growth was largely driven by a 10.5% increase in Raw Materials/Intermediate Goods to US$2.24Bn, heavily fueled by a 13.5% rise in industrial supplies like inorganic chemicals and a 10.2% rise in construction materials like iron and steel. Consumer Goods Imports also rose 6.2% to US$2,112.8Mn, primarily due to a 9.6% jump in food for household consumption. Conversely, spending on Fuels and Lubricants provided some offset, declining by 7.5% to US$1,744.0Mn.
• Meanwhile, for the full calendar year, total exports contracted by 13.4% to US$1.65Bn due to a 20.4% fall in the value of Crude Material (ext. fuels). Domestic exports declined by 12.4%, dragged down by underperformance across all major producing industries. Mining and Quarrying earnings fell 21.1%, driven by a 25.8% drop in Alumina to US$534.5Mn, despite Bauxite increasing 27.3%. Agriculture earnings dropped 19.1% due to reduced exports of yams and other root crops, while Manufacturing declined 4.5%, largely due to Refined Petroleum Products (-10.1%), though Food, Beverages, and Tobacco saw a slight 1.7% uptick.
• Jamaica’s top five trading partners in 2025 were the United States, China, Brazil, Japan and Trinidad and Tobago. Combined imports from these countries totalled approximately US$4.7Bn, representing a 5.1% increase compared with 2024.
• On the export side, Jamaica’s main markets were the United States, Russian Federation, Iceland, Canada and the Netherlands. Total earnings from these countries fell by 20.0% to US$1,149Mn.
• In terms of key trading blocs, the value of imports under USMCA¹ and the European Union (EU) declined to US$3,123.1Mn and US$5945Mn, respectively. On the other hand, imports from CARICOM increased by 14.7%, driven by mineral fuels and food. Similarly, total exports to the USMCA and EU declined by 11.1% and 36.7%, respectively. The falloff in the EU was driven by a 45.3% decline in crude material exports to the EU.
• Ultimately, a widening trade deficit means more US dollars are leaving the country to pay for imports than are coming in through merchandise exports. While remittances and tourism help plug this gap, a worsening merchandise deficit puts depreciatory pressure on the Jamaican Dollar (JMD). For the fiscal outlook, a weaker JMD can increase the local currency cost of servicing Jamaica’s US-dollar-denominated sovereign debt.

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¹The United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA) is a free trade agreement between the three North American nations. It officially went into effect on July 1, 2020, replacing the 26-year-old North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA).

(Source: STATIN & NCBCM Research)

• With 150,000 housing solutions targeted to meet the nation’s demand, Prime Minister, Dr. the Most Hon. Andrew Holness, has underscored the need for an enterprise-level contracting cadre in Jamaica to take on large projects.
• Holness noted that each year, a “significant percentage” of the capital budget is returned to the Ministry of Finance and the Public Service because approved projects are not completed. Beyond the many processes that preceded the construction phase, the issue of uncompleted projects also relates to contractors, whom the Prime Minister described as critical to national development. Dr. Holness stressed that contractors are critical in achieving the Government’s 150,000 housing target.
• He explained that the approach requires engaging individuals with proven skills in housing construction and entering into legal agreements that obligate them to deliver homes at a specified price point, quality standard, and within a defined timeframe.
• The Prime Minister stated that Jamaica needs a contracting class that is thinking at enterprise scale, “that will put the resources into their business to acquire the technical skills and competencies, integrate the technology, and develop the balance sheet to support the kinds of capital works that the Government of Jamaica will be bringing to market”.
• Holness said contractors must have the capacity to take on 10,000 houses at a time to make a meaningful impact. He also urged local contractors to embrace innovation and leverage technology, so they can deliver houses in half the time previously required.
• Prime Minister Holness added that while the Government will continue to make preferential arrangements for local contractors, they must also be competitive at regional and global levels.
• For the Galina Housing Development, the National Housing Trust has partnered with a Chinese company, Henan Fifth Construction Group Jamaica Limited. “We welcome them into our space. We will hold them to the same standards, if not higher, for the production of houses at pace, at scale, and at the level of affordability for the average Jamaican,” Dr. Holness said.

(Source: JIS)

• The United States, Bolivia, Costa Rica, Guyana, Paraguay, and Trinidad and Tobago released a joint statement ​in support of Panama's sovereignty on Tuesday, saying recent ‌actions by China are an attempt to politicise maritime trade and infringe on the sovereignty of nations in the hemisphere.
• "We are monitoring with vigilance China's ​targeted economic pressure and the recent actions that have ​affected Panama-flagged vessels," the statement said. "Panama is a pillar of ⁠our maritime trading system, and as such must remain free ​from any undue external pressure."
• Panama's Supreme Court in late January invalidated ​the legal framework supporting the 1997 concession granting CK Hutchison's¹ Panama Ports Company the right to operate the Balboa and Cristobal terminals on the Pacific ​and Atlantic sides of the Panama Canal.
• The cancellation followed mounting U.S. ​pressure to curb Chinese influence around the strategic canal, which handles about 5% ‌of ⁠global maritime trade.
• CK Hutchison, which operated the ports for nearly 30 years, has rejected the court ruling, accused Panamanian authorities of unlawfully seizing property, and launched an international arbitration case against the ​country, claiming damages ​of more than $2 ⁠
• The Panamanian court ruling was followed by a surge in detentions and inspections of Panama-flagged vessels in ​China in apparent retaliation.
• On Wednesday, China's foreign ministry called ​the ⁠statement "entirely baseless and misleading", accused the United States of politicising ports, and said it would take steps to safeguard China's interests in Panama.
• "China ⁠also ​urges the relevant countries not to be ​deceived or exploited by malevolent forces," added Lin Jian, a foreign ministry spokesperson.

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 ¹CK Hutchison Holdings Ltd. is an investment holding company, which engages in the development, innovation, operation and investment in different business sectors. It operates through the following segments: Ports and Related Services; Retail; Infrastructure; Husky Energy and Telecommunications. The company was founded on December 12, 2014 and is headquartered in Hong Kong.

(Source: Reuters)