• Jamaica’s trade deficit for the period January to February 2025 increased by 5.6% to US$1.01Bn when compared to US$961Mn in 2024, according to data from the Statistical Institute of Jamaica (STATIN). The decline was driven by a reduction in exports and a modest increase in spending on imports. Between January and February 2025, Jamaica’s spending on imports totalled US$1.32Bn, up US$24Mn (1.9%), while the country earned approximately US$306.20Mn from exports, down US$29.70Mn (8.8%).
• “Raw Material/Intermediate Goods” and “Consumer Goods”, which rose by 6.2% and 9.9%, respectively, were the primary drivers of the increase in import spending. The 8.8% decline in exports reflected a 41.0% decrease in the value of exports of “Mineral Fuels”.
• The top five import markets during the period were the United States, China, Brazil, Nigeria, and Colombia. Import spending from these countries rose by 9.3% to $855.0Mn, largely due to higher spending on imports of Mineral Fuels.
• For the same period, Jamaica's largest export markets included the United States, Russia, Iceland, Canada, and France. Export revenue from these markets rose by 11.7% to US$233Mn, largely due to higher exports of Crude Materials.
• Given the U.S. administration’s minimum 10% tariff on all trading partners, this policy shift could lead to a decline in total domestic export revenues for Jamaica, as the higher prices that results from the tariff could slow demand. The U.S. is Jamaica's top trading partner, accounting for just over 40% of total goods exports. This drove the trade deficit higher, reversing the decline witnessed in 2024 (-3.0% YoY).
• In terms of the current Middle East Conflict, higher oil prices could dampen trade and growth prospects, which would also negatively impact Jamaica’s trade balance. However, the ceasefire between Israel and Iran and the de-escalation of the conflict, in turn, saw a collapse in oil prices, with Brent Crude trading back around US$69 per barrel (/bbl), and Fitch believes oil prices will remain in the range of US$70–80/bbl.
• That said, the outlook is mixed and is heavily dependent on the event of a re-escalation in tensions. Any sustained move above US$90/bbl would begin to weigh on global activity, while for a surge to US$120–150/bbl, global inflation could rise by 1.2–1.8 percentage points (pp) and global growth could be reduced by at least 0.2–0.3pp, likely tipping the global economy into a mild recession.

(Sources: STATIN, Fitch Connect & NCBCM Research)

• Wisynco Group Limited (WISYNCO), one of Jamaica’s leading manufacturers and distributors of fast-moving consumer goods, has commissioned a new state-of-the-art manufacturing facility, reinforcing its commitment to innovation and local manufacturing, as the company celebrates its 60th anniversary.
• The investment underscores Wisynco’s commitment to driving growth through local manufacturing, operational excellence and continuous product innovation. The new plant features a modern canning line and an integrated brewery, which will significantly expand the company's production capacity and support the launch of new beverage formats and product categories tailored to Jamaican consumers.
• This acquisition forms a critical part of Wisynco's strategic growth agenda and aligns with its vision of becoming the Caribbean's most innovative and customer-centric consumer goods company.
• Chairman William Mahfood highlighted the investment as a sign of confidence in Jamaica's future, while CEO Andrew Mahfood called it a transformative step to meet consumer demands.

(Sources: JSE, RJR News)

• Concerns over tariffs, taxes, and duties often deter companies from adopting nearshoring strategies. However, representatives from the Port of Miami are assuring businesses in Latin America and the Caribbean—including Trinidad and Tobago—that using foreign trade zones can eliminate these fees entirely.
• Sonless Martin, Vice President of Global Trade and Business at Port Miami, explained that goods placed within a foreign trade zone and exported outside of the United States are not subject to US tariffs, duties, or taxes.
• “With all the tariff conversations happening with the various countries, you will not pay any money on tariffs, taxes or duties as long as you place the product within a foreign trade zone and export it outside of the United States. You have no time limit on when you have to export it, as long as you keep it within a foreign trade zone,” said Martin.
• Martin noted that Port Miami oversees foreign trade zone 281 (Miami-Dade County), one of 24 such zones across Florida—four of which are located within the county. The setup process, which includes applications, security checks, and software integration, typically takes between 30 to 60 days, he said.

(Source: Trinidad Express)

• Attorney General Ryan Pinder says the government of the Bahamas is moving to formally establish the National Investment Fund (NIF) by the end of this month, creating an independently governed vehicle to manage and grow public assets on behalf of the Bahamian people.
• Speaking during the 2025/2026 Budget debate in the Senate, Pinder said the NIF will be structured in line with the Santiago Principles^[i], promoting transparency, sound governance, accountability, and prudent investment practices. “We look to have the fund constituted by the end of this month and funded in part from proceeds from the recent bond offering,” he told Senators.
• The fund will be used to support national infrastructure and public development projects, including those tied to the orange and blue economies, while also seeking to maximize underutilized sovereign assets.
• It will back major development priorities such as the redevelopment of Grand Bahama International Airport and Family Island airport, public-private real estate ventures through vehicles like Poinciana SPV Ltd., and critical infrastructure projects, including the Glass Window Bridge.
• Pinder said the fund will also consolidate the government’s equity holdings in private companies such as BTC, Aliv, Cable Bahamas, and the Nassau Cruise Port. Additional components include a Natural Resources Fund to receive royalties and related revenues, and a Blue Economy Fund to capture income from maritime industries and emerging opportunities such as blue carbon credits.

(Source: Eyewiteness News)

^[i] The Santiago Principles are the globally accepted standards for governance, investment and risk management practices for sovereign wealth funds.

• The U.S. economy contracted a bit faster than previously thought in the first quarter amid tepid consumer spending, underscoring the distortions caused by the Trump administration's aggressive tariffs on imported goods.
• Gross domestic product decreased at a downwardly revised 0.5% annualized rate last quarter, the Commerce Department's Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) said in its third estimate of GDP. It was previously reported to have dropped to a 0.2% pace. The revision reflected a sharp downgrade to consumer spending, which is now estimated to have increased at only a 0.5% pace instead of the previously reported 1.2% rate.
• The economy grew at a 2.4% rate in the fourth quarter. Domestic demand growth was slashed to a 1.9% rate from the previously reported 2.5% pace. A flood of imports as businesses rushed to bring in goods before President Donald Trump's sweeping tariffs kicked in, accounted for the bulk of the decrease in GDP. Consumer spending also slowed as the boost from pre-emptive buying of goods, especially motor vehicles, ahead of the import duties faded.
• The flow of imports has since subsided, positioning GDP for a sharp rebound in the second quarter. The Atlanta Federal Reserve is forecasting GDP to accelerate at a 3.4% rate this quarter. Given the gyrations from imports, economists cautioned against interpreting the anticipated rebound in GDP as a sign of economic strength. Data on retail sales, housing, and labour markets have suggested economic activity is softening.
• When measured from the income side, the economy grew at an upwardly revised 0.2% rate in the first quarter. Gross domestic income (GDI) was initially estimated to have declined at a 0.2% pace. That reflected an upward revision to corporate profits. Profits from current production with inventory valuation and capital consumption adjustments decreased $90.6 billion in the first quarter, an upward revision of $27.5 billion.
• The average of GDP and GDI, also referred to as gross domestic product and considered a better measure of economic activity, dropped at an upwardly revised 0.1% rate.

(Source: Reuters)

• Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey said on Thursday that a recent pickup in inflation created more uncertainty about the medium-term picture for price growth, but he also noted signs of a slowdown in the jobs market in Britain.
• Bailey reiterated the central bank's guidance on borrowing costs, saying rates were not on a preset path but were likely to come down gradually. The central bank governor was among the majority of Monetary Policy Committee members who last week voted to keep borrowing costs on hold at 4.25%.
• Investors are betting on the BoE cutting rates in two further quarter-point moves to 3.75% by the end of 2025. Bailey said elevated global uncertainties continued to impact the UK economy, but the direct impact from trade policies on world output could be smaller than initially thought.

(Source: Reuters)

• For the quarter ended March 31, 2025 (Q1 2025), Edufocal Limited (LEARN) reported a significant reduction in net losses to $1.34Mn, from $20.87Mn in Q1 2024. The improvement stems from cost-control measures and strategic efforts aimed at restoring financial stability, despite continued pressure from high finance costs, which totalled $6.95Mn (down 16.1% year-over-year).
• Revenue held relatively steady at $29.97Mn, reflecting a marginal 0.13% decline from $30.01Mn in Q1 2024. This flat performance is consistent with the Group’s strategic focus on developing more predictable, recurring revenue streams, underpinned by continued investment in its Amigo platform, a key initiative aimed at building scalable income through a modernised business model.
• Amid the flat revenues, effective cost-containment strategies and the streamlining of operations improved operational performance. Notably, administrative expenses fell 62.3% to $12.88Mn, largely due to internal restructuring and heightened cost efficiency. As a result, operating profits totalled $5.61Mn, a sharp turnaround from the $12.59Mn operating loss in the prior year. Consequently, operating margin improved from -41.9% to 18.7%.
• However, impairment losses surged nine-fold to $11.25Mn largely due to provisions on trade and other receivables, including contract assets. This increase partially offsets the gains in operating performance and underscores lingering credit risks in the business. The company also contends with finance costs of $6.95Mn, which continue to weigh on performance.
• Amid the improved Q1 Performance, LEARN remains focused on expanding its global market presence through strategic initiatives, including the closure of ‘Academy’^[1] to streamline operations and the acquisition of Clever School Teacher (CST), EduFocal Nigeria and EduFocal Africa. These moves are part of a broader strategy to build a leaner, more globally competitive platform.
• The improvement in cost control and operating margins suggest progress toward recovery; however, trading in EduFocal’s shares remains suspended as the company has not yet submitted its audited financial statements for the year ending December 31, 2024. The Jamaica Stock Exchange suspended trading on June 2, 2025, and it is unlikely that Q1 2025 results alone will lead to a reinstatement without the overdue annual report.

(Sources: Company Financials & NCBCM Research)

^[1] EduFocal Academy is an online learning platform focused on providing educational support and resources to students, particularly those in grades 4-6, preparing for the Primary Exit Profile (PEP).

• Jamaica is participating in consultations on the implementation of various aspects of the CARICOM Single Market and Economy (CSME). The CSME was established to deepen regional integration, drive sustained economic development and build economic resilience within the Caribbean Community. Established under the Revised Treaty of Chaguaramas in 2001, the CSME seeks to create a single economic space allowing for the free movement of goods, services, capital, people, and the right of establishment.
• Speaking at a recent Jamaica Information Service (JIS) Think Tank, Minister of Foreign Affairs and Foreign Trade, Senator the Hon. Kamina Johnson Smith, emphasised the technical efforts required for the process.
• The CSME comprises several key components, including the free movement of goods that meet the rules of community origin without unauthorised barriers, the free movement of nationals across 12 categories without the need for work permits or visas and the right of CARICOM nationals to establish businesses in member states.
• Senator Johnson Smith explained that the economic aspects, such as financial and monetary integration among member states, are advanced through meetings of the Council for Finance and Planning (COFAP). Meanwhile, regional health and social matters are addressed by the Council for Human and Social Development (COHSOD), and legal matters are handled by the Senior Officials of the Legal Affairs Committee (SOLAC).
• At the last Heads of Government Conference, she said it was agreed that a three-year transitional period would be implemented to facilitate the necessary technical arrangements. “Jamaica will be a part of that,” she added.
• Minister Johnson Smith said that during the transition to free movement, existing mechanisms, such as the CARICOM Skills Certificate regime, will remain in effect. This means that individuals seeking employment in other member states will still need to apply for a CARICOM Skills Certificate. However, she noted that efforts are underway to streamline and enhance the process, making it easier and more efficient for people to move and work easily.

(Source: JIS)

• Brazil's central bank said on Tuesday that much of the impact from its "particularly quick and very firm" tightening cycle is yet to be felt, which is why it now foresees a pause in interest rate increases to assess those effects.
• In the minutes of last week's decision, when the monetary policy committee Copom raised rates by 25 basis points to 15.0% and signalled a "very prolonged" pause ahead. The central bank also stressed that it will still assess whether the current rate is appropriate to bring inflation back to target.
• Reiterating that it will not hesitate to resume hikes if needed, the central bank sought to stress that the pause does not necessarily mark the end of the tightening cycle, a message likely aimed at discouraging premature bets on when it might start easing borrowing costs.
• Despite the aggressive tightening, Latin America's largest economy has continued to outperform expectations, supported by resilient economic activity and a tight labour market, with annual inflation running well above the 3.0.% target.
• "How do you stop raising interest rates in a scenario like this? By trusting the lags of monetary policy. ... So now it's time to wait for it to take effect," said Luis Otavio Leal, partner and chief economist at G5 Partners, who expects an initial rate cut early next year.

(Source: Reuters)

• Mexico's headline inflation landed in line with expectations in the first half of June, reinforcing analysts' expectations that the central bank should continue to steadily bring down interest rates in Latin America's second-largest economy.
• Mexican consumer prices rose 0.10% during the first half of June compared to the prior two weeks, data from the national statistics agency showed on Tuesday, in line with the 0.11% projected by economists in a Reuters poll.
• Inflation in the 12 months through mid-June meanwhile hit 4.51%, also in line with expectations, an increase compared with 4.22% the prior month but easing from the 4.62% registered in the second half of May.
• Analysts at Banamex said they expect inflation to "resume a downward trajectory in the coming months." A rebound in merchandise prices from low levels last year should continue "albeit at a slower pace, considering the stability of the exchange rate and the moderation in producer price inflation," it added.
• The increase moves the inflation figure further from the Bank of Mexico's target range of 3%, plus or minus 1 percentage point.
• The central bank cut its benchmark interest rate by 50 basis points in May - its third consecutive cut of that size - bringing it down to its lowest point since August 2022, at 8.5%.
• Analysts polled by Reuters expect the bank to announce another cut of 50 basis points later this week. Analysts at Mexican Financial Services group, Actinver, said they expect that the decision to split the board, and that future cuts will likely be just 25 basis points.

(Source: Reuters)