- Jamaica’s trade deficit for the period January to February 2025 increased by 5.6% to US$1.01Bn when compared to US$961Mn in 2024, according to data from the Statistical Institute of Jamaica (STATIN). The decline was driven by a reduction in exports and a modest increase in spending on imports. Between January and February 2025, Jamaica’s spending on imports totalled US$1.32Bn, up US$24Mn (1.9%), while the country earned approximately US$306.20Mn from exports, down US$29.70Mn (8.8%).
- “Raw Material/Intermediate Goods” and “Consumer Goods”, which rose by 6.2% and 9.9%, respectively, were the primary drivers of the increase in import spending. The 8.8% decline in exports reflected a 41.0% decrease in the value of exports of “Mineral Fuels”.
- The top five import markets during the period were the United States, China, Brazil, Nigeria, and Colombia. Import spending from these countries rose by 9.3% to $855.0Mn, largely due to higher spending on imports of Mineral Fuels.
- For the same period, Jamaica's largest export markets included the United States, Russia, Iceland, Canada, and France. Export revenue from these markets rose by 11.7% to US$233Mn, largely due to higher exports of Crude Materials.
- Given the U.S. administration’s minimum 10% tariff on all trading partners, this policy shift could lead to a decline in total domestic export revenues for Jamaica, as the higher prices that results from the tariff could slow demand. The U.S. is Jamaica's top trading partner, accounting for just over 40% of total goods exports. This drove the trade deficit higher, reversing the decline witnessed in 2024 (-3.0% YoY).
- In terms of the current Middle East Conflict, higher oil prices could dampen trade and growth prospects, which would also negatively impact Jamaica’s trade balance. However, the ceasefire between Israel and Iran and the de-escalation of the conflict, in turn, saw a collapse in oil prices, with Brent Crude trading back around US$69 per barrel (/bbl), and Fitch believes oil prices will remain in the range of US$70–80/bbl.
- That said, the outlook is mixed and is heavily dependent on the event of a re-escalation in tensions. Any sustained move above US$90/bbl would begin to weigh on global activity, while for a surge to US$120–150/bbl, global inflation could rise by 1.2–1.8 percentage points (pp) and global growth could be reduced by at least 0.2–0.3pp, likely tipping the global economy into a mild recession.
(Sources: STATIN, Fitch Connect & NCBCM Research)