• Guyana's real GDP growth is set to reach 11.9% in 2025, up from 9.1% previously due to the Yellowtail Project operations, which began in August 2025. This solid GDP growth, however, still marks a sharp slowdown from the 43.6% growth estimated for 2024, though still one of the fastest rates globally.
• The Yellowtail project, which began several months ahead of schedule, is expected to provide a boost to export growth in the second half of 2025 (H2 2025). Furthermore, expectations are that fiscal policy will continue to support robust non-oil activity through higher wages, transfers and infrastructure spending, which will partially offset the drag from imports.
• Real GDP growth is expected to accelerate again in 2026 and to average 17.3% annually between 2026 and 2028. This will be driven by higher exports, with the impulse from the Yellowtail project lifting growth in 2026 and then continuing this trend, as the Uaru and Whiptail projects are due to come online over 2026 and 2027. As a result, Fitch’s Oil & Gas team forecasts that net oil exports will double between 2025 and 2028. Meanwhile, the commissioning of the flagship gas-to-energy project in mid-2026 is expected to reduce fuel import needs and improve electricity reliability, thereby supporting non-oil sectors.
• Additionally, domestic demand growth will remain robust, as the government's expansionary fiscal stance supports consumption and investment activity. Non-oil growth stood at 13.8% year over year (YoY) in H1 2025. This was supported by mining, agriculture, and, particularly, construction, which expanded by 29.9%, in line with higher public investment in infrastructure projects. Following its re-election in September 2025, the government has pledged a further uplift in spending on capital projects and social welfare in the 2026 budget, which will sustain robust momentum in domestic demand over the coming year.
• That said, risks to the GDP growth forecasts are mixed and largely hinge on developments in the oil and gas sector. For instance, a steeper decline in oil prices could delay some oil and gas investments and lower government revenues, potentially weighing on exports and public spending. Further delays to the gas-to-energy project, which was originally slated for completion in 2025, would keep fuel imports high and reduce the contribution of net exports to headline GDP growth.
• By contrast, higher global oil prices would provide more fiscal space to stimulate domestic demand and non-oil activity. The recent award of a licence to a TotalEnergies-led consortium to explore the S4 offshore block^[1] poses upside risks to Guyana's longer-term hydrocarbons output forecasts and overall growth potential.

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¹Guyana's Block S4 is a newly awarded shallow-water offshore license in the prolific Guyana-Suriname basin, operated by TotalEnergies (40%), partnered with QatarEnergy (35%) and Petronas (25%).

(Source: BMI, A Fitch Solutions Company)

• The restart of Trinidad and Tobago's 175,000b/d Guaracara refinery is technically, commercially and financially viable given current market demand for refined products and crude availability. The energy ministry provided the update after the refinery restart committee, chaired by former energy minister Kevin Ramnarine, submitted an interim report.
• The plant at Pointe-à-Pierre was shuttered in 2018 as part of the restructuring of national oil company Petrotrin. With the company losing billions annually, the former People’s National Movement government shut the refinery down, leaving more than 3,500 permanent and 1,200 non-permanent workers unemployed. Since then, Guaracara Refining, a subsidiary of Trinidad Petroleum Holdings created that year, has overseen the refinery.
• The committee is due to present final feasibility and restart option recommendations in the coming months. In November, the new government, which took office in May, pitched the reopening as part of a plan to transform the country into a regional energy hub.
• "The closure of the refinery for seven years has led to degradation of the units and supporting utilities and off-sites. However, the committee concluded that the newer plants, which were part of the gasoline optimisation programme (GOP), were in relatively good condition," the ministry said.
• "The report also identifies the significance of remedial works on the new ultra-low sulphur diesel (ULSD)1 plant, which has not been commissioned, but which is important to refinery economics given the regional and extra-regional demand for ULSD and the move to increasingly stringent sulphur specifications in refined products," the ministry added.

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¹Ultra Low Sulfur Diesel (ULSD) is a variant of traditional or "normal" diesel fuel that is mostly stripped of its sulfur content. It was created in response to a number of regulatory actions aimed at reducing diesel fuel emissions

(Source: Bnamericas)

• Bond investors are positioning for a shallow easing cycle from the Federal Reserve as it gears up for its final policy meeting of 2025, reducing exposure to long-duration Treasuries and rotating into intermediate maturities for juicier returns. Many Wall Street banks have penciled in fewer Fed interest rate cuts in 2026 on lingering inflation concerns and expectations of a more resilient U.S. economy.
• Against that backdrop, the shift to the so-called belly of the curve - such as U.S. five-year Treasuries - reflects a view that the typical strategy of loading up on long bonds during rate-cutting cycles may not deliver the same payoff this time. The thinking hinges on inflation and the Fed's evolving policy stance.
• The U.S. central bank's policy-setting Federal Open Market Committee is widely anticipated to lower its benchmark overnight rate by 25 basis points to the 3.50%-3.75% target range at the end of a two-day policy meeting that starts on Tuesday. Investors will also scrutinise the FOMC statement as well as Fed Chair Jerome Powell's post-meeting remarks for signals that the benchmark rate is close to neutral, the level at which monetary policy is neither accommodative nor restrictive, potentially near 3%.
• "We are expecting a shallow path of rate cuts, mainly because inflation is still too high and that's a concern for a lot of voting (FOMC) members especially for some rotating in next year. But the labor market is cooling, although not falling off a cliff," said Collin Martin, head of fixed income research and strategy at the Schwab Center for Financial Research.
• Barclays sees the Fed delivering two more 25-bp rate cuts, in March and June, while Deutsche Bank sees the Fed on hold in early 2026, but easing again in September under a new and more dovish leadership. HSBC, on the other hand, said the central bank will pause over the next two years after a rate reduction on Wednesday.
• When the Fed enters a rate-cutting cycle, investors typically extend bond duration, anywhere from 10-year to 30-year U.S. Treasuries. In periods of easing, shorter-dated yields fall, so investors reach further out the curve to lock in higher long-term rates before they decline further. As such, longer-dated debt has traditionally outperformed shorter-duration Treasuries when the Fed is cutting rates.
• With the inflation rate remaining above the Fed's 2% target, bond investors anticipate a higher neutral rate of possibly 3%. If the neutral rate is higher, the upside for long-duration bonds could be capped, making intermediate maturities or the belly of the curve a more attractive hedge against policy uncertainty and inflation persistence, analysts said.

(Source: Reuters)

• China’s trade surplus surpassed US$1 trillion for the first time as exporters redirected shipments away from the U.S. toward Europe, Australia and Southeast Asia. November exports grew 5.9% year-over-year (YoY), reversing October’s contraction and beating expectations, while imports rose a softer 1.9%. November’s surplus hit US$111.68Bn, well above forecasts.
• Shipments to the U.S. fell 29.0% YoY, reflecting the drag of still-elevated U.S. tariffs averaging 47.5%, even after Washington and Beijing agreed to scale back certain duties. Economists estimate diminished U.S. market access has cut China’s export growth by roughly 2 percentage points (≈0.3% of GDP), with front-loading tactics by Chinese exporters now exhausted.
• China accelerated efforts to diversify export markets following Trump’s 2024 election victory, leveraging global production hubs and strengthened ties with the EU and Southeast Asia. Exports to the EU rose 14.8%, Australia 35.8%, and Southeast Asia 8.2%, driven in part by strong demand for electronics, machinery and semiconductors amid global supply shortages.
• Stronger-than-expected exports supported a firmer yuan as investors awaited direction from key political meetings, including the Politburo and the upcoming Central Economic Work Conference. Policymakers signaled plans to boost domestic demand, which remains weakened by the property downturn, seen in lower copper imports, despite rising rare earth and soybean shipments. Factory activity remained in contraction, reflecting ongoing uncertainty for manufacturers.

(Source: Reuters)

• On December 2^nd, the House of Representatives approved an Order permitting the temporary suspension of the fiscal rules for an initial period of one year as the country advances its recovery from the impact of Hurricane Melissa.
• Explaining the process for suspending the fiscal rules, Minister of Finance and the Public Service, Hon. Fayval Williams, noted that the Planning Institute of Jamaica (PIOJ) provides its estimate of gross domestic product (GDP) growth, while the Bank of Jamaica (BOJ) presents its outlook on inflation, Net International Reserves (NIR), balance of payments, and the status of the financial sector.
• “This information then becomes the basis for the Ministry to project the Hurricane Melissa impact on tax revenues, impact on expenditure, debt-to-GDP (gross domestic product) ratio and fiscal balance, among the important variables,” she said.
• “This information then goes to the Independent Fiscal Commission, which verifies that the impact of the hurricane on the economy is at least 1.5% of GDP because that is the law that guides suspension of the fiscal rules,” the Minister added.
• Williams informed the Lower House that the Ministry of Finance recently received a report from the Independent Fiscal Commission, entitled ‘Validation of Fiscal Impact of Hurricane Melissa for the Suspension of Fiscal Rules – Financial Year 2025/26’. “It states that, based on the information provided by the Planning Institute of Jamaica (PIOJ) and the Ministry of Finance and the Public Service, the fiscal impact is estimated at 5.3% of GDP over the period fiscal year 2025/26 to fiscal year 2029/30 – well above the legislative threshold of 1.5% to trigger suspension of the fiscal rules,” she stated.
• “As such, the Order… subject to affirmative resolution, will permit the fiscal rules to be temporarily suspended for, at least, an initial period of one year. This is how the law states it. If it warrants an extension, then the Ministry of Finance and the Public Service will present the case,” the Minister added.
• Meanwhile, Mrs. Williams said the debt-to-GDP ratio is projected to rise to 68.2% by the end of fiscal year 2025/26. “If you recall, we ended fiscal year 2024/25 at 62.4% and were on a path to be at 60% by end of this fiscal year, which is two years earlier than planned. In the medium-term, starting with fiscal year 2026/27, we project that the debt to GDP ratio will decline to 66.1%, then to 63.8% followed by 63.4% in fiscal year 2028/29, and then at 64.2% by fiscal year 2029/30,” she stated.

(Source: JIS)

• Since the start of oil production in 2019, Guyana’s economy has not merely grown but has taken off. This can be substantiated by the fact that in 2024, the real Gross Domestic Product (GDP) increased by an impressive 43.6%. In 2022, oil exports accounted for approximately 88% of total domestic exports, while sugar, gold, bauxite, shrimp, fish and fish byproducts, timber and rice contributed approximately 90% of the non-oil exports.
• The country stands as one of the world’s fastest-growing economies. More importantly, although the revenue gained provides an opportunity for the country to strategically attain global prominence through policy strategies and development agenda, overreliance on the sector can heighten the risk of “Dutch disease”, a phenomenon that may undermine the performance of non-oil sectors.
• Moreover, as a Small Island State (SIDs), Guyana faces challenges such as price volatility, limited market size, possibilities of rent-seeking and commodity dependence. As the country navigates the new economic transformation driven by the discovery of its new oil wealth, it is essential to understand the potential role that trade in services can play in Guyana’s diversification and sustainable growth.
• According to a joint report published by the World Trade Organisation (WTO) and the World Bank in 2023, the services sector accounts for half of global employment and two-thirds of global GDP, exceeding the combined contributions of the agricultural and other productive industries. In Guyana, both goods and services trade have maintained a positive relationship with GDP during the period 2005 to 2022. That is, increased international trade in goods and services increased Guyana’s earnings.
• Services such as engineering and logistics, driven mainly by the oil and gas industry, increased nearly fourteen times over the period 2005–2021. However, service exports have remained stagnant. Therefore, the paradox that remains is that Guyana currently has a consistent services trade deficit. Similarly, foreign direct investment (FDI) has largely focused on capital-intensive oil and gas projects, posing a threat of competition for labour and resources within the oil and gas industry, crowding out domestic investment in other sectors. The negative relationship between aggregate FDI and non-oil GDP growth is an indication that oil-based investments may be overshadowing non-oil investments or creating little domestic value.
• Micro, Small and Medium Enterprises (MSMEs) and Small and Medium Enterprises (SMEs) are critical players in addressing the identified gap. As drivers of innovation, sustainable economic growth and adaptive capacity, they have the power to open growth pathways in tourism, digital services and green finance.
• Guyana is leveraging its participation in multiple regional (like CARIFORUM-EU EPA and CARICOM) and bilateral trade agreements to enhance its international services sector, aiming for greater market access and professional mobility (Mode 4), while also exploring innovative strategies like niche heritage/eco-tourism and a regional 'Caribbean Tourism Initiative' to diversify its economy beyond the oil and gas sector.

(Source: Barbados Today)

• Mexico on Wednesday announced it would boost the minimum wage next year and push to trim the country's long work week, the latest moves by the country's leftist administration aimed at helping workers. Starting in January, the minimum wage will rise 13% to 315.04 pesos ($17.27) per day, part of an agreement between labour, business and government leaders, Labour Minister Marath Bolanos said. The daily wage, however, will increase to about 440.87 pesos in parts of northern Mexico near the border with the United States, where wages are higher.
• The 2026 minimum wage increase will bring the accumulated rise in salaries to 154% since 2018, President Claudia Sheinbaum said during her morning press conference. Sheinbaum, who took office just over a year ago, has supported the wage hikes championed by her predecessor and mentor, Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador, and has argued they have helped reduce poverty significantly.
• Sheinbaum on Wednesday said the decision had been taken after consulting with the finance ministry and the central bank, as well as with the business community. She has pushed back against critics who argue that a new double-digit boost will harm consumers by pushing prices higher.
• Some analysts, as well as Central Bank Deputy Governor Jonathan Heath, have warned that bringing the minimum wage too close to the median salary could fuel inflation, even though annual headline inflation is currently within a percentage point of the bank's 3% target, after a series of interest-rate cuts since early 2024. The measure comes after Mexico's economy contracted 0.3% in the third quarter, as a slowdown in industrial activity drove the economy's first year-on-year quarterly decline since 2021.
• Mexico's economy has been weighed down by the impact of U.S. President Donald Trump’s on-again, off-again tariffs and uncertainty over the upcoming review of the United States-Mexico-Canada trade agreement (USMCA) next year. The government on Wednesday also said it was sending a bill to Congress to incrementally trim the working week from 48 hours a week to 40 hours per week by 2030. If passed, the official working week limit would be reduced by two hours a year starting in 2027.
• The 40-hour work week was a key promise during Sheinbaum's 2024 campaign but has been stalled amid pushback from business leaders. The average Mexican worker worked 2,193 hours in 2024, significantly more than workers in any other OECD country, according to OECD data.

(Sources: Reuters)

• Oil prices were steady on Thursday, December 4, 2025, with the market focused on Ukraine's attacks on Russian oil assets, while stalled peace talks tempered expectations of a deal restoring Russian oil flows. Brent crude rose 24 cents, or 0.4%, to $62.91 in the early morning, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate rose 33 cents, or 0.6%, to $59.28.
• Ukraine hit the Druzhba oil pipeline in Russia's central Tambov region, a Ukrainian military intelligence source said on Wednesday, the fifth attack on the pipeline that sends Russian oil to Hungary and Slovakia. The pipeline operator and Hungary's oil and gas company later said supplies were moving through the pipeline as normal.
• "Ukraine’s drone campaign against Russian refining infrastructure has shifted into a more sustained and strategically coordinated phase," consultancy Kpler said in a research report. "This has pushed Russian refining throughput down to around 5 million barrels per day (bpd) between September and November, a 335,000 bpd year-on-year decline, with gasoline hit hardest and gasoil output also materially weaker," the report added.
• The perception that progress on a peace plan for Ukraine was stalling also supported prices, after U.S. President Donald Trump's representatives emerged from peace talks with the Kremlin with no specific breakthroughs on ending the war. Trump said it was unclear what happens now. Previously, expectations of an end to the war had pressured prices lower, as traders anticipated a deal would involve ending sanctions on Russia and allow Russian oil back into an already oversupplied global market.
• Meanwhile, U.S. crude and fuel inventories rose last week as refining activity picked up, the Energy Information Administration said on Wednesday. Crude inventories rose by 574,000 barrels to 427.5 million barrels in the week ended November 28th, the EIA said, compared with analysts' expectations in a Reuters poll for an 821,000-barrel draw.
• Fitch Ratings on Thursday cut its 2025-2027 oil price assumptions to reflect market oversupply and production growth that is expected to outstrip demand. In 2026 and 2027, Brent crude is expected to decline to 63USD/bbl from 65USD/bbl previously, West Texas Intermediate (WTI) is also expected to decline to 58USD/bbl from 60USD/bbl, while Henry Hub is expected to remain unchanged at 3.50USD/mcf before declining to 3.00USD/mcf in 2027.

(Source: Reuters)

• Layoffs announced by United States (U.S.) employers fell sharply in November, but hiring intentions continued to lag as businesses navigated an uncertain economic environment against the backdrop of tariffs on imports and slowing demand.
• Global outplacement firm Challenger, Gray & Christmas said on Thursday, December 4, 2025, planned job cuts declined 53% to 71,321 last month from October. They were, however, 24% higher compared to the same period last year. November's tally was also the largest for the month since 2022.
• So far this year, employers have announced about 1.171 million job cuts, up 54% relative to the first eleven (11) months of 2024. In contrast, planned hires totalled only 497,151, the lowest year-to-date total since 2010, and down 35% compared to the same period in 2024.
• But the jump in planned layoffs so far this year has not translated into a surge in first-time applications for state unemployment benefits, keeping the labour market in what policymakers and economists call a "no fire, no hire" state. Labour market stagnation has been blamed on reduced labour supply amid a reduction in immigration that started during the final year of former President Joe Biden's term and accelerated under President Donald Trump's administration.
• The integration of artificial intelligence (AI) into some job roles is also eroding demand for labour, with most of the hit landing on entry-level positions. Economists also said Trump's trade policy had created an uncertain economic environment that has hamstrung the ability of businesses, especially small enterprises, to hire.

(Source: Reuters)

• Food prices growth could, at a minimum, exceed 10% in Jamaica over the next year, according to a December 3 report by Fitch. The agency’s forecast is within the context of the scale of the damage from Melissa.
• Fitch also noted that as Jamaica embarks on its long economic recovery, it expects that the Bank of Jamaica (BOJ) will maintain the policy rate at 5.75% through year-end 2025 and into H1 2026 as real interest rates turn negative¹. It noted that while real rates will turn negative – making policy very loose – the BoJ’s credible inflation-targeting regime and well-anchored inflation expectations will give it space to navigate the temporary supply shock.
• “Indeed, the BoJ’s interventions in the foreign exchange market to keep the exchange rate steady and ensure the affordability of imports will be a primary tool to limit inflationary pressures. With the Bank of Jamaica explicitly stating that the domestic fiscal policy stance poses inflationary risk in the near term, we expect that the vast majority of the needed post-Hurricane economic stimulus will come through fiscal channels rather than monetary policy easing”, the report noted. However, as the recovery progresses and price pressures moderate slightly, it also sees room for a 25bp cut in Q4 2026 to support domestic demand, lowering the rate from 5.75% to 5.50%.
• Still, the report cited that risks to Jamaica’s inflation and interest rate outlook are heightened and skewed to the upside. Given the unprecedented nature of Hurricane Melissa and the severe destruction wrought to the country’s productive assets and infrastructure, inflation could remain elevated for a longer period and at a higher level. This, in turn, could prompt the central bank to leave the interest rate unchanged, or even increase the policy rate to counteract domestic price pressures.
• Further, despite efforts to support the currency and reduce imported inflation, unexpected fluctuations in global energy and commodity prices could quickly feed into Jamaica’s inflation picture, given the increased reliance that Jamaica’s beleaguered economy will have on imported goods during hurricane recovery.

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¹When prices (inflation) are rising faster than the interest rate offered by banks or the central bank's policy rate, the real rate becomes negative. This means that money saved loses purchasing power over time, effectively encouraging spending and borrowing.

(Source: BMI, a Fitch Solutions Company)