• Suriname is rapidly establishing itself as a major offshore oil and gas player in the Caribbean, with multiple deepwater discoveries and growing international investment positioning the nation as the region’s next upstream growth center.
• Recent exploration success has confirmed estimated recoverable resources of 2.4Bn barrels of oil equivalent (boe) and 12.5Tn cubic feet of natural gas, primarily within Suriname’s portion of the Guyana–Suriname basin. At least ten new wells are expected to be drilled offshore between 2025 and 2027, underscoring accelerating exploration and appraisal activity.
• The Block 58 development, operated by TotalEnergies with partner APA Corporation, anchors Suriname’s emergence. Following a series of discoveries between 2020 and 2022, including Maka Central, Sapakara South, and Krabdagu, the partners sanctioned the GranMorgu project, which is expected to deliver its first oil in 2028. The field, with estimated reserves of approximately 750Mn barrels, represents the largest industrial investment in Suriname’s history and will feature an all-electric FPSO designed for reduced emissions and zero routine flaring.
• Further north, Petronas’ Block 52 continues to advance with discoveries at Sloanea, Roystonea, and Fusaea, indicating commercial potential across a broader portion of the basin. Evaluation work is underway to assess tie-back options and development synergies with adjacent fields.
• In Block 53, TotalEnergies recently acquired a 25% stake alongside APA and Petronas, reinforcing long-term confidence in Suriname’s offshore potential. The Baja-1 discovery, located near the GranMorgu area, could provide additional production flexibility and extend field life across connected assets.
• Together, these projects outline a path toward sustained production growth, with Suriname potentially producing more than 200,000 bpd by the end of the decade. The country’s coordinated exploration activity and partnership structure position it as the Caribbean’s next major contributor to regional oil and gas supply.

(Source: World Oil)

• A very large crude carrier (VLCC), the Yuan Peng Yang, is transporting about two million barrels of crude produced offshore Guyana to Ningbo, China, according to analytics firm OilX.
• The crude was loaded from the Liza Destiny and Liza Unity floating production, storage and offloading (FPSO) vessels, notices from Guyana’s Maritime Administration Department (MARAD) show.
• OilX data indicate the tanker departed Guyana earlier this month and is expected to discharge at Ningbo on November 26. The shipment represents a double cargo, roughly twice the typical one-million-barrel liftings from the ExxonMobil-operated Stabroek Block.
• China does not regularly import Guyanese crude; the voyage distance is long. Earlier this year, in May 2025, independent price reporting agency Quantum Commodity Intelligence reported the first shipment of Guyanese crude to China in three years. The shipment was transported aboard the VLCC Ulysses, which departed the Liza Destiny on May 14.
• Most of Guyana’s crude exports are destined for Europe, with Panama and the Netherlands among the top direct recipients, according to months of data examined by OilNOW.
• Crude production from the Stabroek Block, operated by ExxonMobil, averaged about 740,000 barrels per day (b/d) in September, and is even higher currently, according to Exxon. Output is gradually increasing toward the installed capacity of about 900,000 b/d as the Yellowtail project, which began production in August, ramps up to its full 250,000 b/d capacity.

(Source: Oil NOW)

• The U.S. budget deficit shrank by US$41.0Bn to US$1.775Tn in the 2025 fiscal year, despite a US$118.0Bn increase in revenues from President Donald Trump's tariffs, the Treasury Department reported on Thursday.
• The results for the year ended September 30, which include nearly nine months of Trump's second term in the White House, compared to a US$1.817T deficit in fiscal 2024. It was the first time the annual deficit had fallen since 2022, when the unwinding of COVID-19 relief programs brought spending down.
• The smaller deficit was aided by a record US$195.0Bn in net customs receipts for the fiscal year, an increase of US$118.0Bn from the prior year as new Trump tariffs rolled in. Customs receipts in September reached a new record high of US$29.7Bn, but the pace of increase slowed from August, when US$29.5Bn was collected. Total receipts for fiscal 2025 were a record US$5.235T, up US$317.0Bn, or 6.0%, from the US$4.918T in fiscal 2024. Fiscal 2025 outlays also were a record at US$7.01T, up US$275.0Bn, or 4.0%, from US$6.735T in the prior fiscal year.
• A U.S. Treasury official said the department calculated an estimated deficit-to-GDP ratio of 5.9% for fiscal 2025 but declined to say what GDP estimate was used. This figure compares to an actual 6.3% deficit-to-GDP ratio for fiscal 2024. For the full 2025 fiscal year, the Department of Education suffered the biggest cut in outlays, down US$233.0Bn, or 87.0% from the prior year to just US$35.0Bn.
• That cut and the higher customs receipts masked continued increases in outlays for the Social Security retirement plan, the Medicare and Medicaid healthcare programs and interest on the U.S. federal debt.
• The interest expenditure reached a record US$1.216T for the full fiscal year, up US$83.0Bn, or 7.0%, from fiscal 2024, making it the second-largest expenditure item after Social Security. Expenses for that program reached US$1.647T, up US$127.0Bn, or 8.0%, from the prior fiscal year.

(Source: Reuters)

• The Bank of Japan must be careful when normalising monetary policy due to uncertainty about how the economy would react to a new environment of positive interest rates, Seiichi Shimizu, the central bank's assistant governor, said on Thursday.
• While many advanced economies have long-term inflation expectations anchored at their central banks' 2.0% target, the situation in Japan is different in that inflation expectations and underlying inflation remain lower, Shimizu explained during a seminar hosted by the Institute of International Finance in Washington that "In Japan, inflation expectations are still below 2%, so we have to lift up expectations and continue to support economic activity," Shimizu said
• The BOJ confronts another uncertainty unique to Japan, which is unaccustomed to positive interest rates after experiencing a prolonged era of low inflation and rates.
• Japan's central bank exited a decade-long, massive stimulus program last year and raised its key interest rate to 0.5% in January on the view that the country was on the cusp of durably hitting its 2% inflation target.
• While BOJ Governor Kazuo Ueda has signalled the central bank's readiness to keep raising rates, he has stressed the need to tread cautiously to scrutinise the economic impact of U.S. tariffs. The central bank’s next policy meeting is scheduled for October 29-30.

(Source: Reuters)

• Local Consumer prices rose 0.8% in September, according to the Statistical Institute of Jamaica (STATIN). This upward movement was primarily driven by the ‘Food and Non-Alcoholic Beverages’ (+0.9%), ‘Housing, Water, Electricity, Gas and Other Fuels’ (+1.0%), and ‘Education’ (+5.6%) divisions.
• The outturn in the Food division was influenced mainly by higher prices for some agricultural produce in the class ‘Vegetables, tubers, plantains, cooking bananas, and pulses’. Higher housing, water and fuel prices reflected increased electricity rates and rental costs, while education costs rose on the back of higher tuition fees for private schools at the primary level for the new school term.
• Despite the month-on-month increase, the point-to-point (P2P) inflation rate remains below the Bank of Jamaica’s (BOJ’s) target range (4.0-6.0%). The 12-month point-to-point (P2P) was 2.1%, influenced primarily by increases in ‘Housing, Water, Electricity, Gas and Other Fuels’ (+4.8%), ‘Restaurant and Accommodation Services’ (+4.1%) and ‘Food and Non-Alcoholic Beverages’ (+0.7%). The division ‘Information and Communication’ (-5.8%) moderated the growth in P2P.
• Despite broad market expectations for a reduction in the benchmark rate, the BOJ’s Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) unanimously voted to leave its policy rate at 5.75% against the background of low headline inflation amid global uncertainties at its meetings on September 25th and 26th.
• At that time, the BoJ emphasised that the forces driving historically low headline inflation were temporary, arising largely from strong base effects and policy changes. It also indicated that it will increasingly monitor core inflation, a less volatile indicator that has remained within the BoJ’s target since April 2023, as a key input into its monetary policy decisions. The next policy announcement is set for November 20, 2025, and Fitch Solutions maintains the view that the BOJ will reduce rates in Q4 2025.

(Sources: STATIN and BMI, A Fitch Solutions Company)

• On October 15, 2025, Caribbean Information and Credit Rating Services Limited (CariCRIS) reaffirmed the corporate credit ratings for Seprod Limited (Seprod or the Group). The ratings assigned are CariA (Local Currency Rating) on the regional scale, jmAA- (Local Currency Rating), and jmA+ (Foreign Currency Rating) on the Jamaica national scale. The CariA and jmA+ ratings indicate that Seprod's creditworthiness is good compared to other issuers in the Caribbean and Jamaica, while the jmAA- rating indicates that Seprod’s creditworthiness is high relative to other issuers in Jamaica.
• However, CariCRIS assigned a negative outlook on Seprod’s ratings. The negative outlook reflects the high likelihood that Seprod’s financial flexibility will remain constrained over the next 12-15 months. This is underpinned by Seprod’s increasing debt levels needed to support acquisition-led growth and meet working capital requirements.
• As a result, Seprod’s effective debt servicing coverage ratio (DSCR) is likely to remain challenged. However, if the Group successfully refinances its near-term obligations, it is expected that Seprod’s debt servicing ratios will improve. Despite these challenges, the Group is projected to maintain profitable operations and comfortably service its debt in a timely manner over the next 12 to 15 months.
• Factors that could individually or collectively lead to a decrease in the rating or outlook for Seprod include a decline in the credit rating of the Government of Jamaica over the next 12 to 15 months; a sustained reduction in the Profit after Tax (PAT) margin below 3% for two consecutive years (2.5% for FY2024); or the Group's effective DSCR remaining below 1 for another year.
• That said, Seprod’s ratings are supported by its strong market position, underpinned by a diversified portfolio of products and a well-established distribution network across the Caribbean. The Group’s solid financial performance continues to reinforce the ratings, despite persistently constrained debt protection metrics and lower profitability reported (-42.03% YoY) in 2024.
• Overall, the ratings reflect Seprod’s integrated business model and robust corporate governance practices, backed by a competent management team. However, ongoing global economic uncertainty poses potential risks to earnings and profitability, despite generally favourable economic conditions in its primary markets.

(Sources: CariCRIS & NCBCM Research)

• The European Union countries have approved maintaining Panama, Russia, and nine other jurisdictions on their tax haven blacklists, after finding that they continue to fail to cooperate in this area or have failed to implement the reforms they had committed to. 
• The list, specifically, consists of American Samoa, Anguilla, Fiji, Guam, Palau, Panama, Russia, Samoa, Trinidad and Tobago, the American Virgin Islands, and Vanuatu, according to a statement from the EU Council, the institution in which the Member States are represented. “Although there have been some positive developments in this round of updates, the Council regrets that these jurisdictions are still not fully cooperating on tax issues and encourages them to improve their legal framework to address the identified problems,” the institution explained.
• This is the second time this repertoire has been updated without any changes, after the revision last February also kept these eleven jurisdictions in the same list.  The list, which has been in operation since 2017 and is updated every six months, includes jurisdictions that fail to meet EU standards on tax transparency, tax fairness, or the implementation of international standards to prevent tax base erosion or profit shifting, and that also fail to take steps to address these problems.
• Listing on it does not entail financial penalties, beyond a ban on European funds transiting through entities based in these jurisdictions and administrative measures such as more frequent audits, although states can decide at the national level to impose other types of penalties.

(Source: Newsroom Panama)

• The Bank of Mexico should be more cautious in cutting interest rates, given the current scenario of sticky core inflation and headline inflation still above target, deputy governor Jonathan Heath said.
• The central bank has cut borrowing costs for ten straight meetings, most recently delivering a quarter percentage cut last month that Heath opposed. While the annual headline inflation sits within the Bank of Mexico's target range of 3%, plus or minus a percentage point, the goal is to get it to 3%, Heath said in a podcast by Grupo Financiero Banorte.
• Heath noted that continued increases in labour costs and international food prices were hindering rapid convergence toward the 3% inflation target. Core inflation, meanwhile, a closely watched indicator of price trends that strips out highly volatile prices like food and energy, ticked up to 4.28% in September - "showing no sign that it wants to go down," Heath said.
• The annual headline rate sped up in September to 3.76%, according to official data; however, the central bank estimates the rate will hit 3% in the third quarter of next year.

(Source: Reuters)

• President Donald Trump’s tariffs are pushing inflation generally higher as companies are caught between absorbing the costs or passing them onto customers, according to a Federal Reserve report on Wednesday.
• The central bank’s periodic Beige Book report, which is published eight times a year, generally at about six-week intervals, categorised overall economic growth as having “changed little” since the last report on Sept. 3. Labour markets “were largely stable” as demand was “muted” for most of the Fed’s 12 districts.
• When it came to prices, though, Trump’s duties implemented in April and then staggered through ensuing months showed an impact. “Prices rose further during the reporting period,” the report stated. “Tariff-induced input cost increases were reported across many Districts, but the extent of those higher costs passing through to final prices varied.”
• In some cases, firms held prices unchanged to stay competitive and to appease inflation-sensitive clients. However, some businesses said they were “fully passing higher import costs along to their customers.”
• The release comes amid a dearth of relevant economic data due to a government shutdown entering its third week. Key providers such as the Labour and Commerce departments are largely closed due to the impasse.
• However, Bureau of Labour Statistics workers have been called back to release the pivotal consumer price index report used both as an inflation gauge and to index cost of living adjustments for Social Security recipients. The CPI reading, which normally would have been released Wednesday, will come out Oct. 24, the last inflation reading the Fed will get before its policy meeting Oct. 28-29.

 (Source: CNBC)

• Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell indicated the central bank is close to concluding its "quantitative tightening" (QT), the reduction of its more than $6 trillion balance sheet, as the system approaches the level of reserves judged to be "somewhat above the level we judge consistent with ample reserve conditions."
• Powell strongly suggested that additional interest rate cuts are likely due to the labour market having "softened pretty considerably," placing the risks of employment losses and unfinished inflation control closer to being in balance.
• The Chair defended the Fed's policy of paying interest on bank reserves, stating that while the Fed has temporary operating losses, eliminating these payments would be a serious mistake that would cause the central bank to "lose control over rates."
• The Federal Reserve's long-stated plan is to cease balance sheet runoff in the coming months once there are indications that liquidity conditions are sufficient, though Powell confirmed the Fed has no plans to return its balance sheet to its pre-Covid size of around $4 trillion.
• The overall economic outlook does not appear to have changed much since the last meeting; however, policymakers are increasingly concerned that the less dynamic and somewhat softer labor market means that the "downside risks to employment appear to have risen."

(Source: CNBC)