• Caribbean Community (CARICOM) leaders issued a statement over the weekend, urging a peaceful resolution to the crisis in the Southern Caribbean. But as they united on the issue, one of its founding members made it clear it has a much different view of the situation. Trinidad and Tobago (T&T) expressed that it had adopted a much different attitude to the others in the 15-member – a point leaders ensured was recorded in their weekend statement on US military threats to Venezuela.
• “Heads of government CARICOM met and discussed various issues on the regional agenda, including the increased security build-up in the Caribbean and the potential impacts on member states. Save in respect of Trinidad and Tobago, which reserved its position, heads reaffirmed the principle of maintaining the Caribbean region as a zone of peace and the importance of dialogue and engagement towards the peaceful resolution of disputes and conflict. CARICOM remains willing to assist towards that objective,” the terse statement noted.
• The T&T administration has repeatedly stood behind the Trump administration in its ambitions on Venezuela, with Prime Minister Kamla Persad Bissessar calling on US soldiers to “kill them all violently,” referring to alleged drug traffickers trying to move large shipments of cocaine north to her nation and also to the US. She says such activities over the years have led to a spike in violent crime with murders (averaging 600 annually), gangland violence and increases in felony crimes, including drive-by shootings.
• While this was happening, citizens in Trinidad were spooked by a weekend advisory from the U.S mission in Port of Spain asking the population to increase alertness “to be aware of their surroundings and to report any suspicious activity to local authorities.” Local authorities have since increased security presence around the mission, hinting that there might have been threats to the facility even as police work to confirm the identities of two Trinidadians killed in one of the boat strikes last week.
• Neighbouring Guyana is the other member state which has lined up behind the U.S., at a time when there have been border disputes between it and Venezuela.

(Source: Caribbean Life)

• The Barbados-based Caribbean Development Bank (CDB) yesterday said it has signed a memorandum of understanding (MoU) with the OPEC Fund for International Development, establishing a strategic framework for collaboration aimed at unlocking new financing opportunities and driving sustainable growth across the Caribbean.
• It said the agreement sets the stage for parallel financing and cofinancing of projects in critical sectors such as climate resilience, renewable energy, resilient infrastructure, food security, trade finance, and youth empowerment.
• It also promotes knowledge sharing, technical assistance, and capacity building, ensuring that Borrowing Member Countries (BMCs) benefit from innovative solutions and expanded access to resources. CDB president Daniel Best underscored the transformative power of collaboration.
• He noted that strategic partnerships between multilateral development banks are fundamental to achieving meaningful progress and driving transformational impact goals. This MOU is a significant step forward, showing that cooperation among development institutions is not just beneficial but vital to delivering real and lasting improvements in people's lives,' Best added.
• The MOU outlines joint activities, including project preparation, technical assistance, and regional dialogues to advance inclusive and green development. Areas of focus range from climate-smart agriculture and water security to digital connectivity and private sector growth, all aligned with CDB's mission to foster resilience and reduce poverty.
• The region's premier financial institution said that the collaboration would also support youth empowerment initiatives, technical and vocational training, and innovative financing mechanisms such as debt-for-sustainability swaps and blue economy facilities, reinforcing the Caribbean's position as a leader in climate resilience and sustainable development.

(Source: Trinidad Express Newspapers)

• The Federal Reserve (Fed) will lower its key interest rate by 25 basis points (bps) next week and again in December, according to a Reuters poll of economists who remain deeply divided on where rates will be by the end of next year.
• A month ago, economists had expected just one more cut this year. But the new forecast follows a recent shift in expectations by Fed policymakers toward additional reductions. Caught between the dual risks of already-elevated inflation climbing higher due to tariffs and a further weakening of the labour market, the Fed appears to have prioritised the latter, prompting it to cut rates by 25 basis points last month for the first time since December 2024.
• All but two economists, 115 of 117, predicted the Fed would lower the interest rate again by a quarter point to 3.75%-4.00% on October 29. Two expected a 25 bps cut in October and a 50 bps cut in December. That majority falls to 71% for another cut in December. The poll was conducted on October 15-21.
• Financial market traders are more convinced and have fully priced in two more reductions this year to interest rate futures contracts. Many Federal Open Market Committee members, including Fed Chair Jerome Powell, have suggested they will keep focusing on the job market. However, a government shutdown that so far has lasted three weeks has delayed key official data on employment as well as inflation, blurring the economic outlook.
• Recent private-sector data indicate both layoffs and hiring are modest, suggesting no major change in the job market. Poll medians predict the unemployment rate will average around the current 4.3% each year through 2027, largely unchanged from last month. Inflation, which the Fed targets at 2% on the personal consumption expenditures measure, was expected to average above 2% each year through 2027, according to the latest poll. Delayed official data due on October 24 are expected to show consumer inflation rose to 3.1% last month from 2.9% in August.
• That said, economists were split seven ways on where rates would be by the end of next year, ranging between 2.25%-2.50% and 3.75%-4.00%. The increased uncertainty is partly a result of speculation on who will be the next Fed chair after Powell's term ends in May.

(Source: Reuters)

• British finance minister Rachel Reeves has noted that Brexit, along with spending cuts by previous governments, had weighed more heavily on the United Kingdom’s (U.K’s) economy than originally thought as she readies a budget likely to include tax increases but also measures to boost growth.
• In comments reported by the Guardian newspaper, Reeves expressed that she was aiming to defy an expected downgrade in the economic growth forecasts from Britain's independent fiscal watchdog, the Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR).
• "We also know – and the OBR, I think, is going to be pretty frank about this – that things like austerity, the cuts to capital spending and Brexit have had a bigger impact on our economy than even was projected back then," she was quoted as saying by the newspaper during a conference in Birmingham. "That's why we are unashamedly rebuilding our relations with the European Union to reduce some of those costs that were, in my view, needlessly added to businesses since 2016 and since we formally left a few years ago."
• The OBR has estimated that Brexit will reduce Britain's long-term level of productivity by 4% compared with remaining in the European Union. The Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey also noted that Brexit was likely to continue to weigh on British economic growth over the coming years. According to the International Monetary Fund (IMF) in its October World Economic Outlook Projections, the United Kingdom is forecasted to grow by 1.3% in 2025 and 2026. This reflects a 0.1% increase in its 2025 outlook relative to the IMF’s July update, but a 0.1% decrease in its 2026 outlook.
• Data published earlier showed Britain's public borrowing in the first half of the financial year was the highest on record except during the height of the coronavirus pandemic, keeping up the pressure on Reeves ahead of the November 26 budget.

(Sources: Reuters & IMF)

• Despite an increase in topline growth, Knutsford Express Services Limited (KEX) reported a marginal decline (0.5%) in earnings to J$66.38Mn for the first quarter ending August 31, 2025 (Q1 FY 2025/2026), owing to higher operating expenses.
• Revenues grew by 9.1% in Q1 2025/2026, moving from J$549.71Mn to J$599.71Mn. Growth was driven by strong demand for KEX’s core business of islandwide passenger services between 16 locations, courier services over 19 locations, along with revenues from its Drax Hall Business Centre and Café.
• However, the company grappled with cost pressures, as administrative and general expenses rose by 11.2% to $501.33Mn. These higher operating expenses reflected an increase in KEX’s workforce to meet increasing customer demand across its expanding product and service lines of business, along with the addition of five new coaches.
• With higher expenses outpacing revenue growth (+9.1%), KEX’s operating profit fell by 0.5% to $98.38Mn. That said, profit before taxation rose slightly by 2.3% in the first quarter, from J$82.39Mn to J$84.26Mn, as the growth in finance income (+109.4%) outpaced higher finance costs (+0.6%). Still, net earnings were tempered by the 14.1% increase in tax expenses. Consequently, net profit margins moved from 12.1% to 11.1%.
• Despite the falloff in earnings, management pointed out that its investment in the Knutsford Express Business Centre in Drax Hall, St. Ann, has already exceeded expectations, as the rapid expansion of the area known as “Greater Ocho Rios” has established a commercial hub of activity for the area.
• While KEX expects continued growth from this location, the company is also pursuing other opportunities for synergistic benefits to its core transportation business, courier and logistics for other locations across the island. Notwithstanding, KEX is likely to face increased competition from the JUTC given the company’s expansion of routes from Mandeville to Kingston and from Montego Bay to Kingston.
• At the close of market on Thursday, October 16, 2025, KEX’s stock price has depreciated by 8.2% year-to-date to $13.00. It currently trades at a P/E of 27.62x, above the Junior Market Other Average of 17.30x.

(Sources: KEX Financial Release and NCBCM Research)

• Jamaica is projecting to welcome 4.3 million visitors for 2025, which is expected to generate US$4.6Bn in revenues. Providing an update on the sector during this week's sitting of the House of Representatives, Minister of Tourism, Hon. Edmund Bartlett, said as the world rediscovers travel, Jamaica stands ready, not just to welcome visitors but to lead the region into a new era of sustainable growth.
• “We are projecting 4.3 million visitor arrivals for 2025, a 2.7% increase over 2024 and earnings of US$4.6Bn, representing 7.1% growth year-on-year,” he said. He indicated that for the upcoming Winter 2025/26 season, stopover arrivals are expected to increase by 6.9%, cruise arrivals by 24.3% and gross earnings by eight per cent, reaching US$1.7Bn.
• Mr Bartlett said the sector’s performance puts Jamaica on track to achieve five million visitors and US$5Bn in earnings within five years, as well as increase its projected targets. “With this trajectory, Jamaica is firmly on course to achieve our 5x5x5 Mission - five million visitors and US$5 billion in earnings within the five-year period - which started in 2020, notwithstanding COVID and Hurricane Beryl. The new Key Performance Indicator (KPI) for tourism will be “5x8x10” Strategy: that is to achieve eight million visitors, earning US$10Bn by 2030,” he noted.
• He said this vision reflects confidence, not just in numbers but in people, creativity, hospitality, and resilience that define Brand Jamaica. “Our marketing focus is expanding beyond traditional markets to embrace new frontiers in Latin America, the Middle East, and Asia, supported by enhanced airlift, digital innovation, and strategic partnerships that ensure Jamaica remains top of mind for global travellers,” the Minister said.
• While Jamaica’s tourist arrivals have been recovering from the COVID-induced downturn, it has yet to reach its 2018 peak. Arrivals stood at 97% of 2018 levels in 2023 and 96% in 2024. Furthermore, Jamaica’s tourist arrivals are down 4.9% to 2.2Mn for the first half of 2025 (H1 2025), which industry stakeholders are attributing to recent shifts in immigration policy.

(Sources: JIS & NCBCM Research)

• Suriname is rapidly establishing itself as a major offshore oil and gas player in the Caribbean, with multiple deepwater discoveries and growing international investment positioning the nation as the region’s next upstream growth center.
• Recent exploration success has confirmed estimated recoverable resources of 2.4Bn barrels of oil equivalent (boe) and 12.5Tn cubic feet of natural gas, primarily within Suriname’s portion of the Guyana–Suriname basin. At least ten new wells are expected to be drilled offshore between 2025 and 2027, underscoring accelerating exploration and appraisal activity.
• The Block 58 development, operated by TotalEnergies with partner APA Corporation, anchors Suriname’s emergence. Following a series of discoveries between 2020 and 2022, including Maka Central, Sapakara South, and Krabdagu, the partners sanctioned the GranMorgu project, which is expected to deliver its first oil in 2028. The field, with estimated reserves of approximately 750Mn barrels, represents the largest industrial investment in Suriname’s history and will feature an all-electric FPSO designed for reduced emissions and zero routine flaring.
• Further north, Petronas’ Block 52 continues to advance with discoveries at Sloanea, Roystonea, and Fusaea, indicating commercial potential across a broader portion of the basin. Evaluation work is underway to assess tie-back options and development synergies with adjacent fields.
• In Block 53, TotalEnergies recently acquired a 25% stake alongside APA and Petronas, reinforcing long-term confidence in Suriname’s offshore potential. The Baja-1 discovery, located near the GranMorgu area, could provide additional production flexibility and extend field life across connected assets.
• Together, these projects outline a path toward sustained production growth, with Suriname potentially producing more than 200,000 bpd by the end of the decade. The country’s coordinated exploration activity and partnership structure position it as the Caribbean’s next major contributor to regional oil and gas supply.

(Source: World Oil)

• A very large crude carrier (VLCC), the Yuan Peng Yang, is transporting about two million barrels of crude produced offshore Guyana to Ningbo, China, according to analytics firm OilX.
• The crude was loaded from the Liza Destiny and Liza Unity floating production, storage and offloading (FPSO) vessels, notices from Guyana’s Maritime Administration Department (MARAD) show.
• OilX data indicate the tanker departed Guyana earlier this month and is expected to discharge at Ningbo on November 26. The shipment represents a double cargo, roughly twice the typical one-million-barrel liftings from the ExxonMobil-operated Stabroek Block.
• China does not regularly import Guyanese crude; the voyage distance is long. Earlier this year, in May 2025, independent price reporting agency Quantum Commodity Intelligence reported the first shipment of Guyanese crude to China in three years. The shipment was transported aboard the VLCC Ulysses, which departed the Liza Destiny on May 14.
• Most of Guyana’s crude exports are destined for Europe, with Panama and the Netherlands among the top direct recipients, according to months of data examined by OilNOW.
• Crude production from the Stabroek Block, operated by ExxonMobil, averaged about 740,000 barrels per day (b/d) in September, and is even higher currently, according to Exxon. Output is gradually increasing toward the installed capacity of about 900,000 b/d as the Yellowtail project, which began production in August, ramps up to its full 250,000 b/d capacity.

(Source: Oil NOW)

• The U.S. budget deficit shrank by US$41.0Bn to US$1.775Tn in the 2025 fiscal year, despite a US$118.0Bn increase in revenues from President Donald Trump's tariffs, the Treasury Department reported on Thursday.
• The results for the year ended September 30, which include nearly nine months of Trump's second term in the White House, compared to a US$1.817T deficit in fiscal 2024. It was the first time the annual deficit had fallen since 2022, when the unwinding of COVID-19 relief programs brought spending down.
• The smaller deficit was aided by a record US$195.0Bn in net customs receipts for the fiscal year, an increase of US$118.0Bn from the prior year as new Trump tariffs rolled in. Customs receipts in September reached a new record high of US$29.7Bn, but the pace of increase slowed from August, when US$29.5Bn was collected. Total receipts for fiscal 2025 were a record US$5.235T, up US$317.0Bn, or 6.0%, from the US$4.918T in fiscal 2024. Fiscal 2025 outlays also were a record at US$7.01T, up US$275.0Bn, or 4.0%, from US$6.735T in the prior fiscal year.
• A U.S. Treasury official said the department calculated an estimated deficit-to-GDP ratio of 5.9% for fiscal 2025 but declined to say what GDP estimate was used. This figure compares to an actual 6.3% deficit-to-GDP ratio for fiscal 2024. For the full 2025 fiscal year, the Department of Education suffered the biggest cut in outlays, down US$233.0Bn, or 87.0% from the prior year to just US$35.0Bn.
• That cut and the higher customs receipts masked continued increases in outlays for the Social Security retirement plan, the Medicare and Medicaid healthcare programs and interest on the U.S. federal debt.
• The interest expenditure reached a record US$1.216T for the full fiscal year, up US$83.0Bn, or 7.0%, from fiscal 2024, making it the second-largest expenditure item after Social Security. Expenses for that program reached US$1.647T, up US$127.0Bn, or 8.0%, from the prior fiscal year.

(Source: Reuters)

• The Bank of Japan must be careful when normalising monetary policy due to uncertainty about how the economy would react to a new environment of positive interest rates, Seiichi Shimizu, the central bank's assistant governor, said on Thursday.
• While many advanced economies have long-term inflation expectations anchored at their central banks' 2.0% target, the situation in Japan is different in that inflation expectations and underlying inflation remain lower, Shimizu explained during a seminar hosted by the Institute of International Finance in Washington that "In Japan, inflation expectations are still below 2%, so we have to lift up expectations and continue to support economic activity," Shimizu said
• The BOJ confronts another uncertainty unique to Japan, which is unaccustomed to positive interest rates after experiencing a prolonged era of low inflation and rates.
• Japan's central bank exited a decade-long, massive stimulus program last year and raised its key interest rate to 0.5% in January on the view that the country was on the cusp of durably hitting its 2% inflation target.
• While BOJ Governor Kazuo Ueda has signalled the central bank's readiness to keep raising rates, he has stressed the need to tread cautiously to scrutinise the economic impact of U.S. tariffs. The central bank’s next policy meeting is scheduled for October 29-30.

(Source: Reuters)