• The Bahamas’ national debt soared by almost $300Mn to hit $12.385Bn at the end of September 2025, a signal that the Government likely incurred a significant deficit during the first quarter of its current fiscal year. The Central Bank of the Bahamas, in its quarterly review of the 2025 calendar third quarter, revealed that the direct debt accumulated by the central government increased by $300.3Mn or 2.6% during the period. On an annualised basis, it grew by $413.2Mn compared to end-September 2024.
• The direct charge on the Government increased for the quarter ended September 2025 by $300.3Mn and on an annual basis, by $413.2Mn (3.5%) to $12.07Bn. A breakdown by currency revealed that Bahamian dollar debt represented 54.3% of the total, while foreign currency liabilities accounted for the remaining 45.7%, according to the Central Bank. The Government’s contingent liabilities declined by $3.9Mn (1.2%) over the review quarter and by $19.4Mn (5.8%) year-on-year to $315.9Mn.
• Consequently, the national debt, inclusive of contingent liabilities, increased by $296.5Mn (2.5%) over the three-month period and by $393.8Mn (3.3%) on an annual basis to $12.385Bn as at the end of September 2025. As a ratio to gross domestic product (GDP), the direct charge decreased by an estimated 1.5 percentage points on a yearly basis to 73.4% at the end of September. Further, the national debt-to-GDP ratio fell to an estimated 75.3% from 77% in the third quarter of 2024.
• Overall, after peaking in 2021, The Bahamas’ debt burden is set to slowly decline over the coming decade, on the back of improvements in its fiscal position. Total debt as a fraction of GDP is slated to decline from 81.5% in 2023 to 54.4% in 2032. The Bahamian government's fiscal position is estimated to improve over the next 10 years as a result of fiscal consolidation and increased value-added tax collections.
• The fiscal deficit is expected to narrow from 1.6% of GDP in FY2023/24 to 1.4% in FY2033/34. Government revenues are anticipated to rise from 22.0% of GDP in FY2023/24 to 22.9% in FY2033/34. This will mainly reflect improving economic conditions and incomes, bolstering tax take. Expenditure growth will also remain moderate over the 10-year forecast period, as increasingly efficient state-owned enterprises (SOEs) require less government support.

(Sources: The Tribune and BMI, A Fitch Solutions Company)

• Trinidad and Tobago’s Finance Bill 2025, a sweeping package of legislative reforms, was passed in Parliament on December 5, 2025, with the support of the Government’s majority. The bill was piloted by Finance Minister Davendranath Tancoo, who noted that the reforms mark a decisive step toward strengthening governance, modernising outdated laws, boosting public safety and ensuring greater fairness in the country’s tax system.
• Tancoo outlined 23 clauses that amend 21 pieces of legislation, noting that the measures will update penalties, close loopholes, modernise institutions, and introduce new revenue streams while fulfilling several key campaign promises.
• Of note, Clause 18 introduces several new tax measures, including the Commercial Asset Levy, a 0.25% levy on the total assets of licensed financial institutions and local insurers. These institutions must file annual returns, with penalties applied for late submission or payment. Tancoo said the levy ensures large financial entities “make a fair and proportionate contribution to national revenue”. The Board of Inland Revenue will be empowered to enforce compliance.
• A new surcharge on rental income, paired with mandatory property registration, will also take effect. Rates include: 2.5% on quarterly rental receipts of $20,000 or less and 3.5% on amounts above that threshold.  Additionally, unregistered rental activity and false declarations will attract penalties of $250,000 and three years’ imprisonment. This new measure is argued to be more equitable relative to the repealed property tax as it is based on “actual rental receipts as opposed to the People's National Movement’s (PNM) fictional rent”.
• The bill also institutes a 5% electricity surcharge per kilowatt-hour on commercial and industrial consumption, collected through the Trinidad and Tobago Electricity Commission (T&TEC) and remitted quarterly. Schools, healthcare facilities, and other public institutions are exempt. Additionally, a 5% tax will be applied to the CIF (Cost, Insurance and Freight) value of specified imported single-use plastics, such as bags, packaging, cutlery, and PET preforms (used to make plastic bottles). This aligns Trinidad and Tobago with global environmental standards.
• Furthermore, the bill introduces a series of governance and institutional reforms across key public systems. Clause 2 updates the Prime Minister’s Pension Act to align benefits with the new tiered, merit-based pension structure. Clause 3 modernises the Gambling and Betting Act by sharply increasing fines and custodial penalties for illegal lottery operations, which authorities link to serious crimes such as money laundering and drug trafficking. Clause 4 strengthens border security by updating the Immigration Act and supporting a shift to electronic declarations. Clause 5 formalises the Central Bank Governor’s authority to receive statistical information.

(Source: Caribbean National Weekly)

• U.S. job openings increased marginally in October after surging in September, but subdued hiring and the lowest level of resignations in five years underscored the economic uncertainty that economists have largely blamed on tariffs. The Labour Department's monthly Job Openings and Labour Turnover Survey (JOLTS) report was released on Tuesday, December 9, 2025, as Federal Reserve officials started a two-day policy meeting.
• "The job market isn't collapsing but it is certainly losing steam," said Oren Klachkin, financial markets economist at Nationwide. "We anticipate Fed officials will try to get ahead of labour market weakness with another 25-basis points rate cut tomorrow even as inflation remains above the 2% goal."
• Job openings, a measure of labour demand, were up 12,000 to 7.670 million by the last day of October, the Labour Department's Bureau of Labour Statistics (BLS) said. Economists polled by Reuters had forecast 7.150 million unfilled jobs. The report incorporated data for September, whose release was cancelled because of the 43-day federal government shutdown.
• Vacancies soared 431,000, the most in nearly a year, to 7.658 million in September. The BLS said it had "temporarily suspended use of the monthly alignment methodology for October preliminary estimates," adding that "use of this methodology will resume with the publication of October final estimates."
• The bulk of the job openings in October were in the trade, transportation and utilities sector, with 239,000 vacancies, mostly at retailers. There were 114,000 fewer open positions in the professional and business services industry. Job openings in the accommodation and food services sector fell by 33,000. The federal government had 25,000 fewer vacancies.
• The job vacancies rate was unchanged at 4.6%. Hiring dropped by 218,000 to 5.149 million in October, with most of the declines in construction, professional and business services, healthcare and social assistance, as well as accommodation and food services industries. The hires rate slipped to 3.2% from 3.4% in September. There were 5.367 million hires in September. Layoffs crept up 73,000 to a still-low 1.854 million, concentrated in the accommodation and food services sector. The layoff rate rose to 1.2% from 1.1% in September.

(Source: Reuters)

• The European Central Bank (ECB) will propose simplifying rules on capital buffers required of banks, pruning some of the complex regulation put in place after the global financial crisis, two sources familiar with the proposals told Reuters.
• The list of measures that ECB Vice-President, Luis de Guindos, will present to reporters on Thursday, December 11, 2025, aims for fewer, rather than lower, requirements for the amount of capital lenders must hold to cushion themselves against potential shocks. That is a more conservative approach than regulators in Britain and the United States have taken recently and may disappoint bankers who had been hoping for more respite.
• The recommendations, the result of a compromise between different European Union (EU) countries, would merge the systemic risk buffer (SyRB) and countercyclical capital buffer (CCyB), two separate capital requirements set by national supervisors, said the two sources.
• The SyRB and CCyB buffers were introduced by the 27-nation EU as part of a post-crisis overhaul aimed at preventing another banking sector meltdown like that seen in 2007-2008. Bankers complain these rules are too complex and put them at a disadvantage to U.S. peers, particularly at a time when Donald Trump's U.S. administration is leading a drive to deregulate.
• Financial experts said simplification was more than welcome as the current system has become too complex, but this should not lead to banks having to hold less capital. "The messaging from the ECB has been very consistent so far, that there is room to simplify the framework, but that this should not lead to less capital at a system level. I welcome this approach," said Marco Troiano, a director at Scope Ratings.
• The ECB recommendations will next go to the executive European Commission, which shares the power to propose changes to EU legislation with the European Parliament and Council, on which member states sit. Such changes would take years and could reopen long-standing debates over how far Europe should go on loosening regulations designed to shield taxpayers from having to bail out ailing banks.

(Source: Reuters

• Fontana Limited (FTNA) opened its new financial year reporting weaker earnings as net profit declined 26.2% to $44.60Mn for its first quarter ended September 30, 2025 (Q1 FY25/26). Strong sales performance was overshadowed by rising direct costs, higher operating expenses, and increased finance charges, all of which squeezed margins and eroded bottom-line growth.
• Revenues remained the bright spot on the chart, rising 20.6% to J$2.49Bn, a record first-quarter dosage of sales growth. The continued integration of the Monarch Pharmacy chain and the strong consumer response to the high-concept Ora Beauty stores provided the right prescription for foot traffic and transaction volumes.
• However, the side effects showed up quickly. COGS increased by 21.6% to $1.57Bn, outpacing revenue and causing Fontana’s gross margin to fall to 37.0% in Q1 FY25/26 from 37.5% in the prior year. The Monarch integration and the ramp-up of the Ora Fairview location also carried non-recurring onboarding expenses, which pushed operating expenses up 22.3% to J$821.65Mn. As a result, operating margin weakened to 4.0%, compared to 5.0% in Q1 FY 24/25. Management expects the expense ratios to normalise once the newer locations reach their steady-state run rate over the coming quarters.
• Finance costs also contributed to the pressure, climbing 30.2% to $85.88Mn, reflecting the interest obligations tied to the $633.75Mn fixed- and variable-rate unsecured senior corporate bond raised in 2025 to fund the acquisition of Monarch Pharmacy.
• Operationally, Fontana is still ailing from the impact of Hurricane Melissa, which has led to shorter operating hours and softer demand at its St. James and Westmoreland branches. Although its other locations show no symptoms supported by healthy demand, the company is likely to see softer revenue and earnings performance next quarter as medication for the West may take some time to take effect.
• FTNA’s stock price has declined by 5.4% since the start of the year. The stock closed Monday’s trading session at $7.67, with a P/E ratio of 16.7x, below the Junior Market Distribution Sector average of 25.5x.

(Sources: JSE & NCBCM Research)

• Kintyre Holdings (JA) Limited has acquired two real estate properties, one located in Discovery Bay, St. Ann, Jamaica, and the other in the luxurious five islands, located in Trinidad and Tobago. The combined value of these assets exceeds US$1 million, increasing the Company’s total real estate holdings across the group to over J$350 million.
• These two new properties will form the initial asset base of the Kintyre Real Estate Investment Trust (Kintyre REIT), a newly formed entity within the Company. The REIT will be established through a Special Purpose Vehicle (SPV) and will operate independently of Parallel Real Estate Ventures.
• The Kintyre REIT is being structured to provide long-term, stable returns to investors through rental income and asset appreciation. Upon Board approval, Kintyre REIT is expected to implement a dividend distribution policy whereby a minimum of eighty per cent (80%) of profits will be paid to shareholders, consistent with international REIT standards.
• KNTYR’s stock price has depreciated 15.4% year-to-date, closing at $0.44 on Monday, December 8, 2025. At this price, the stock is trading at a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 2.2x, which is below the Junior Market Others Sector’s average of 16.2x.

(Sources: JSE & NCBCM Research)

• Guyana's real GDP growth is set to reach 11.9% in 2025, up from 9.1% previously due to the Yellowtail Project operations, which began in August 2025. This solid GDP growth, however, still marks a sharp slowdown from the 43.6% growth estimated for 2024, though still one of the fastest rates globally.
• The Yellowtail project, which began several months ahead of schedule, is expected to provide a boost to export growth in the second half of 2025 (H2 2025). Furthermore, expectations are that fiscal policy will continue to support robust non-oil activity through higher wages, transfers and infrastructure spending, which will partially offset the drag from imports.
• Real GDP growth is expected to accelerate again in 2026 and to average 17.3% annually between 2026 and 2028. This will be driven by higher exports, with the impulse from the Yellowtail project lifting growth in 2026 and then continuing this trend, as the Uaru and Whiptail projects are due to come online over 2026 and 2027. As a result, Fitch’s Oil & Gas team forecasts that net oil exports will double between 2025 and 2028. Meanwhile, the commissioning of the flagship gas-to-energy project in mid-2026 is expected to reduce fuel import needs and improve electricity reliability, thereby supporting non-oil sectors.
• Additionally, domestic demand growth will remain robust, as the government's expansionary fiscal stance supports consumption and investment activity. Non-oil growth stood at 13.8% year over year (YoY) in H1 2025. This was supported by mining, agriculture, and, particularly, construction, which expanded by 29.9%, in line with higher public investment in infrastructure projects. Following its re-election in September 2025, the government has pledged a further uplift in spending on capital projects and social welfare in the 2026 budget, which will sustain robust momentum in domestic demand over the coming year.
• That said, risks to the GDP growth forecasts are mixed and largely hinge on developments in the oil and gas sector. For instance, a steeper decline in oil prices could delay some oil and gas investments and lower government revenues, potentially weighing on exports and public spending. Further delays to the gas-to-energy project, which was originally slated for completion in 2025, would keep fuel imports high and reduce the contribution of net exports to headline GDP growth.
• By contrast, higher global oil prices would provide more fiscal space to stimulate domestic demand and non-oil activity. The recent award of a licence to a TotalEnergies-led consortium to explore the S4 offshore block^[1] poses upside risks to Guyana's longer-term hydrocarbons output forecasts and overall growth potential.

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¹Guyana's Block S4 is a newly awarded shallow-water offshore license in the prolific Guyana-Suriname basin, operated by TotalEnergies (40%), partnered with QatarEnergy (35%) and Petronas (25%).

(Source: BMI, A Fitch Solutions Company)

• The restart of Trinidad and Tobago's 175,000b/d Guaracara refinery is technically, commercially and financially viable given current market demand for refined products and crude availability. The energy ministry provided the update after the refinery restart committee, chaired by former energy minister Kevin Ramnarine, submitted an interim report.
• The plant at Pointe-à-Pierre was shuttered in 2018 as part of the restructuring of national oil company Petrotrin. With the company losing billions annually, the former People’s National Movement government shut the refinery down, leaving more than 3,500 permanent and 1,200 non-permanent workers unemployed. Since then, Guaracara Refining, a subsidiary of Trinidad Petroleum Holdings created that year, has overseen the refinery.
• The committee is due to present final feasibility and restart option recommendations in the coming months. In November, the new government, which took office in May, pitched the reopening as part of a plan to transform the country into a regional energy hub.
• "The closure of the refinery for seven years has led to degradation of the units and supporting utilities and off-sites. However, the committee concluded that the newer plants, which were part of the gasoline optimisation programme (GOP), were in relatively good condition," the ministry said.
• "The report also identifies the significance of remedial works on the new ultra-low sulphur diesel (ULSD)1 plant, which has not been commissioned, but which is important to refinery economics given the regional and extra-regional demand for ULSD and the move to increasingly stringent sulphur specifications in refined products," the ministry added.

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¹Ultra Low Sulfur Diesel (ULSD) is a variant of traditional or "normal" diesel fuel that is mostly stripped of its sulfur content. It was created in response to a number of regulatory actions aimed at reducing diesel fuel emissions

(Source: Bnamericas)

• Bond investors are positioning for a shallow easing cycle from the Federal Reserve as it gears up for its final policy meeting of 2025, reducing exposure to long-duration Treasuries and rotating into intermediate maturities for juicier returns. Many Wall Street banks have penciled in fewer Fed interest rate cuts in 2026 on lingering inflation concerns and expectations of a more resilient U.S. economy.
• Against that backdrop, the shift to the so-called belly of the curve - such as U.S. five-year Treasuries - reflects a view that the typical strategy of loading up on long bonds during rate-cutting cycles may not deliver the same payoff this time. The thinking hinges on inflation and the Fed's evolving policy stance.
• The U.S. central bank's policy-setting Federal Open Market Committee is widely anticipated to lower its benchmark overnight rate by 25 basis points to the 3.50%-3.75% target range at the end of a two-day policy meeting that starts on Tuesday. Investors will also scrutinise the FOMC statement as well as Fed Chair Jerome Powell's post-meeting remarks for signals that the benchmark rate is close to neutral, the level at which monetary policy is neither accommodative nor restrictive, potentially near 3%.
• "We are expecting a shallow path of rate cuts, mainly because inflation is still too high and that's a concern for a lot of voting (FOMC) members especially for some rotating in next year. But the labor market is cooling, although not falling off a cliff," said Collin Martin, head of fixed income research and strategy at the Schwab Center for Financial Research.
• Barclays sees the Fed delivering two more 25-bp rate cuts, in March and June, while Deutsche Bank sees the Fed on hold in early 2026, but easing again in September under a new and more dovish leadership. HSBC, on the other hand, said the central bank will pause over the next two years after a rate reduction on Wednesday.
• When the Fed enters a rate-cutting cycle, investors typically extend bond duration, anywhere from 10-year to 30-year U.S. Treasuries. In periods of easing, shorter-dated yields fall, so investors reach further out the curve to lock in higher long-term rates before they decline further. As such, longer-dated debt has traditionally outperformed shorter-duration Treasuries when the Fed is cutting rates.
• With the inflation rate remaining above the Fed's 2% target, bond investors anticipate a higher neutral rate of possibly 3%. If the neutral rate is higher, the upside for long-duration bonds could be capped, making intermediate maturities or the belly of the curve a more attractive hedge against policy uncertainty and inflation persistence, analysts said.

(Source: Reuters)

• China’s trade surplus surpassed US$1 trillion for the first time as exporters redirected shipments away from the U.S. toward Europe, Australia and Southeast Asia. November exports grew 5.9% year-over-year (YoY), reversing October’s contraction and beating expectations, while imports rose a softer 1.9%. November’s surplus hit US$111.68Bn, well above forecasts.
• Shipments to the U.S. fell 29.0% YoY, reflecting the drag of still-elevated U.S. tariffs averaging 47.5%, even after Washington and Beijing agreed to scale back certain duties. Economists estimate diminished U.S. market access has cut China’s export growth by roughly 2 percentage points (≈0.3% of GDP), with front-loading tactics by Chinese exporters now exhausted.
• China accelerated efforts to diversify export markets following Trump’s 2024 election victory, leveraging global production hubs and strengthened ties with the EU and Southeast Asia. Exports to the EU rose 14.8%, Australia 35.8%, and Southeast Asia 8.2%, driven in part by strong demand for electronics, machinery and semiconductors amid global supply shortages.
• Stronger-than-expected exports supported a firmer yuan as investors awaited direction from key political meetings, including the Politburo and the upcoming Central Economic Work Conference. Policymakers signaled plans to boost domestic demand, which remains weakened by the property downturn, seen in lower copper imports, despite rising rare earth and soybean shipments. Factory activity remained in contraction, reflecting ongoing uncertainty for manufacturers.

(Source: Reuters)