• Mexico on Wednesday announced it would boost the minimum wage next year and push to trim the country's long work week, the latest moves by the country's leftist administration aimed at helping workers. Starting in January, the minimum wage will rise 13% to 315.04 pesos ($17.27) per day, part of an agreement between labour, business and government leaders, Labour Minister Marath Bolanos said. The daily wage, however, will increase to about 440.87 pesos in parts of northern Mexico near the border with the United States, where wages are higher.
• The 2026 minimum wage increase will bring the accumulated rise in salaries to 154% since 2018, President Claudia Sheinbaum said during her morning press conference. Sheinbaum, who took office just over a year ago, has supported the wage hikes championed by her predecessor and mentor, Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador, and has argued they have helped reduce poverty significantly.
• Sheinbaum on Wednesday said the decision had been taken after consulting with the finance ministry and the central bank, as well as with the business community. She has pushed back against critics who argue that a new double-digit boost will harm consumers by pushing prices higher.
• Some analysts, as well as Central Bank Deputy Governor Jonathan Heath, have warned that bringing the minimum wage too close to the median salary could fuel inflation, even though annual headline inflation is currently within a percentage point of the bank's 3% target, after a series of interest-rate cuts since early 2024. The measure comes after Mexico's economy contracted 0.3% in the third quarter, as a slowdown in industrial activity drove the economy's first year-on-year quarterly decline since 2021.
• Mexico's economy has been weighed down by the impact of U.S. President Donald Trump’s on-again, off-again tariffs and uncertainty over the upcoming review of the United States-Mexico-Canada trade agreement (USMCA) next year. The government on Wednesday also said it was sending a bill to Congress to incrementally trim the working week from 48 hours a week to 40 hours per week by 2030. If passed, the official working week limit would be reduced by two hours a year starting in 2027.
• The 40-hour work week was a key promise during Sheinbaum's 2024 campaign but has been stalled amid pushback from business leaders. The average Mexican worker worked 2,193 hours in 2024, significantly more than workers in any other OECD country, according to OECD data.

(Sources: Reuters)

• Oil prices were steady on Thursday, December 4, 2025, with the market focused on Ukraine's attacks on Russian oil assets, while stalled peace talks tempered expectations of a deal restoring Russian oil flows. Brent crude rose 24 cents, or 0.4%, to $62.91 in the early morning, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate rose 33 cents, or 0.6%, to $59.28.
• Ukraine hit the Druzhba oil pipeline in Russia's central Tambov region, a Ukrainian military intelligence source said on Wednesday, the fifth attack on the pipeline that sends Russian oil to Hungary and Slovakia. The pipeline operator and Hungary's oil and gas company later said supplies were moving through the pipeline as normal.
• "Ukraine’s drone campaign against Russian refining infrastructure has shifted into a more sustained and strategically coordinated phase," consultancy Kpler said in a research report. "This has pushed Russian refining throughput down to around 5 million barrels per day (bpd) between September and November, a 335,000 bpd year-on-year decline, with gasoline hit hardest and gasoil output also materially weaker," the report added.
• The perception that progress on a peace plan for Ukraine was stalling also supported prices, after U.S. President Donald Trump's representatives emerged from peace talks with the Kremlin with no specific breakthroughs on ending the war. Trump said it was unclear what happens now. Previously, expectations of an end to the war had pressured prices lower, as traders anticipated a deal would involve ending sanctions on Russia and allow Russian oil back into an already oversupplied global market.
• Meanwhile, U.S. crude and fuel inventories rose last week as refining activity picked up, the Energy Information Administration said on Wednesday. Crude inventories rose by 574,000 barrels to 427.5 million barrels in the week ended November 28th, the EIA said, compared with analysts' expectations in a Reuters poll for an 821,000-barrel draw.
• Fitch Ratings on Thursday cut its 2025-2027 oil price assumptions to reflect market oversupply and production growth that is expected to outstrip demand. In 2026 and 2027, Brent crude is expected to decline to 63USD/bbl from 65USD/bbl previously, West Texas Intermediate (WTI) is also expected to decline to 58USD/bbl from 60USD/bbl, while Henry Hub is expected to remain unchanged at 3.50USD/mcf before declining to 3.00USD/mcf in 2027.

(Source: Reuters)

• Layoffs announced by United States (U.S.) employers fell sharply in November, but hiring intentions continued to lag as businesses navigated an uncertain economic environment against the backdrop of tariffs on imports and slowing demand.
• Global outplacement firm Challenger, Gray & Christmas said on Thursday, December 4, 2025, planned job cuts declined 53% to 71,321 last month from October. They were, however, 24% higher compared to the same period last year. November's tally was also the largest for the month since 2022.
• So far this year, employers have announced about 1.171 million job cuts, up 54% relative to the first eleven (11) months of 2024. In contrast, planned hires totalled only 497,151, the lowest year-to-date total since 2010, and down 35% compared to the same period in 2024.
• But the jump in planned layoffs so far this year has not translated into a surge in first-time applications for state unemployment benefits, keeping the labour market in what policymakers and economists call a "no fire, no hire" state. Labour market stagnation has been blamed on reduced labour supply amid a reduction in immigration that started during the final year of former President Joe Biden's term and accelerated under President Donald Trump's administration.
• The integration of artificial intelligence (AI) into some job roles is also eroding demand for labour, with most of the hit landing on entry-level positions. Economists also said Trump's trade policy had created an uncertain economic environment that has hamstrung the ability of businesses, especially small enterprises, to hire.

(Source: Reuters)

• Food prices growth could, at a minimum, exceed 10% in Jamaica over the next year, according to a December 3 report by Fitch. The agency’s forecast is within the context of the scale of the damage from Melissa.
• Fitch also noted that as Jamaica embarks on its long economic recovery, it expects that the Bank of Jamaica (BOJ) will maintain the policy rate at 5.75% through year-end 2025 and into H1 2026 as real interest rates turn negative¹. It noted that while real rates will turn negative – making policy very loose – the BoJ’s credible inflation-targeting regime and well-anchored inflation expectations will give it space to navigate the temporary supply shock.
• “Indeed, the BoJ’s interventions in the foreign exchange market to keep the exchange rate steady and ensure the affordability of imports will be a primary tool to limit inflationary pressures. With the Bank of Jamaica explicitly stating that the domestic fiscal policy stance poses inflationary risk in the near term, we expect that the vast majority of the needed post-Hurricane economic stimulus will come through fiscal channels rather than monetary policy easing”, the report noted. However, as the recovery progresses and price pressures moderate slightly, it also sees room for a 25bp cut in Q4 2026 to support domestic demand, lowering the rate from 5.75% to 5.50%.
• Still, the report cited that risks to Jamaica’s inflation and interest rate outlook are heightened and skewed to the upside. Given the unprecedented nature of Hurricane Melissa and the severe destruction wrought to the country’s productive assets and infrastructure, inflation could remain elevated for a longer period and at a higher level. This, in turn, could prompt the central bank to leave the interest rate unchanged, or even increase the policy rate to counteract domestic price pressures.
• Further, despite efforts to support the currency and reduce imported inflation, unexpected fluctuations in global energy and commodity prices could quickly feed into Jamaica’s inflation picture, given the increased reliance that Jamaica’s beleaguered economy will have on imported goods during hurricane recovery.

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¹When prices (inflation) are rising faster than the interest rate offered by banks or the central bank's policy rate, the real rate becomes negative. This means that money saved loses purchasing power over time, effectively encouraging spending and borrowing.

(Source: BMI, a Fitch Solutions Company)

• The Rural Agricultural Development Authority (RADA) is implementing a structured, three-fold, two-year recovery plan for Jamaica’s agricultural sector following estimated damage of over US$30.0Bn from Hurricane Melissa. The plan spans immediate, medium-term and long-term interventions and mobilises RADA’s full technical, extension and engineering teams, while leveraging partnerships among key agencies, farmer groups and the private sector.
• Immediate actions, to be implemented over the first three months after the hurricane’s passage, involve emergency interventions and damage assessments. Within the first 90 days, RADA conducted rapid damage assessments across all 14 parishes and distributed more than US$40.0Mn in materials, including seeds, fertilisers and planting materials, while also commencing six months of free land preparation services, including ploughing, tilling and land clearing to help farmers replant faster.
• Additional short-term support measures include the recent handover of six walk-behind tractors, with another four tractors dispatched into service, alongside the procurement of US$50.0Mn worth of seeds expected to impact some 1,000 hectares of vegetables, roots and tubers in strategic zones, and the start of distribution of more than 500,000 sweet potato slips and other clean planting material.
• Medium-term interventions (three to 12 months) will focus on rehabilitation of infrastructure, farmer training and supply-chain restoration, while long-term interventions (12 to 24 months) will centre on building climate resilience, diversifying production and modernising farm systems, as part of a broader effort to strengthen the sector beyond its pre-hurricane condition.
• As it relates to the loss of vegetable crops in St. Elizabeth, Westmoreland and other parishes, RADA has shifted production to the eastern part of the island, where farmers were less affected and are willing to produce to make up for the shortfall.

(Source: JIS)

• The Bahamian economy continued its moderate growth trajectory in October, maintaining stability amid shifting tourism patterns and evolving financial conditions.
• The Central Bank, in its Monthly Economic and Financial Developments report for October, noted that while high-value stopover tourism faced capacity constraints and softer demand from the United States market, cruise arrivals delivered robust gains, highlighting the sector’s resilience.
• Data from the Nassau Airport Development Company Limited revealed that total outbound departures, excluding domestic travellers, rose marginally by 0.1% to 91,022 in October compared to the same period last year. Non-United States international departures increased 2.8% to 16,159, while United States departures declined 0.4% per cent to 74,863. On a year-to-date basis, total outbound traffic dropped 2.4% to 1.3Mn, primarily due to a 3.5% fall in United States departures.
• Meanwhile, domestic financial indicators showed both challenges and opportunities as the banking sector adjusted to changes in liquidity, credit and deposits.
• Monetary developments in October highlighted a contraction in banking sector liquidity, even as domestic credit declined at a faster pace than deposits. Excess reserves fell by $90Mn, exceeding the prior year’s reduction of $61.1Mn, while broad liquidity measures declined by $76.6Mn. Despite these pressures, external reserves strengthened, rising $123Mn to $2.93Mn, supported by government borrowing and net foreign currency inflows from private sector activities.
• Similarly, foreign currency flows showed mixed trends, with total outflows for current account transactions increasing by $2.80Mn to $518Mn. Outflows for non-oil imports, oil imports, and transfer payments rose, while factor income remittances and travel-related expenses decreased slightly.
• Domestic credit trends were also notable. Total Bahamian dollar credit fell $179.6Mn, driven by a sharp decline in net claims on the government, yet private sector credit grew $43.1Mn, underpinned by $24.2Mn in commercial loans and $16Mn in consumer credit. Mortgage growth slowed to $2.9Mn, while credit to public corporations remained largely unchanged. Credit quality showed some pressure from short-term arrears, which increased $3Mn to $454.9Mn, though non-performing loans decreased $5.4Mn to $307.7Mn.
• Notwithstanding, delinquency ratios for mortgages, commercial loans, and consumer loans all improved, reflecting overall sector resilience. Banks reduced provisions for credit losses by $5Mn to $263.4Mn and managed write-offs and recoveries efficiently.

(Source: Eyewitness News)

• Tourism Minister David Collado reported that the Dominican Republic welcomed 10,284,251 visitors as of November 30, 2025. This is 52% more than in 2019, when the country received 6.7Mn tourists. This growth occurred despite losing around 600,000 annual visitors from Russia and Ukraine due to the ongoing war.
• From January to November, air arrivals reached 7,884,421, marking a growth of 3% over 2014 and 35% over 2019, while cruise arrivals climbed to 2,399,833, also up 3%. Of these visitors, 6,585,380 were foreigners (+2%), and 1,299,041 were Dominicans with international passports (+8%).
• The record-breaking performance generated employment for over 800,000 people across tourism, agriculture, and commerce, contributing US$16.78Bn to GDP and RD$73.6Bn¹ to the government for essential services such as education, health, and infrastructure.

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¹RD$73.60Bn, where RD represents 1 Dominican Pesos.

(Source: Dominican Today)

• United States (U.S.) core import prices were unexpectedly unchanged in September as high costs for consumer goods, excluding motor vehicles, were offset by cheaper energy products. The report was delayed by a record 43-day shutdown of the government.
• According to the Labour Department's Bureau of Labour Statistics on Wednesday, December 3, 2025, in the 12 months through September, import prices increased 0.3%, marking the first year-on-year rise since March and followed a 0.1% dip in August. Economists polled by Reuters had forecast import prices, which exclude tariffs, rising 0.1% after a previously reported 0.3% advance in August.
• Of note, imported fuel prices dropped 1.5% in September after easing 0.5% in August. Natural gas prices declined 3.0% and food prices decreased 0.8%. Core import prices, which exclude fuels and food, rose 0.3%, the same margin as in August. In the 12 months through September, they advanced 0.8%. This partly reflects dollar weakness against the currencies of the main U.S. trade partners. The trade-weighted dollar is down about 5.6% this year.
• The pass-through from tariffs to consumer prices has so far been modest, with economists saying businesses were opting to absorb the duties. Economists, however, continue to expect an acceleration in the pass-through pace, arguing that a continued decline in margins at businesses was unsustainable and could hamper spending on capital and labour. Meanwhile, the government last week reported a surge in producer prices for goods in September, mostly driven by higher food and energy costs.
• Federal Reserve officials are scheduled to meet next week to discuss interest rates, where still high inflation, coupled with the need to ease labour pressures, has created market uncertainty. Of the 12 voting policymakers on the Federal Open Market Committee, the central bank's rate-setting panel, as many as five have expressed opposition or scepticism about further rate cuts. Meanwhile, a core group of three members from the Washington-based Board of Governors is advocating for a decrease in rates.

(Source: Reuters)

• Factory production in the United States (U.S.) was unchanged in September as manufacturing remained constrained by tariffs on imports. The flat reading in manufacturing output reported by the Federal Reserve on Wednesday, December 3, 2025, followed an unrevised 0.1% gain in August.
• Production at factories increased 1.5% on a year-over-year basis in September, while manufacturing output grew at a 1.3% annualised rate in the third quarter, slowing from the April-June quarter's 2.4% pace. Manufacturing has been hamstrung by President Donald Trump's sweeping tariffs, but a surge in spending on artificial intelligence has propped up other industries.
• Trump has defended the duties as necessary to revive a long-declining U.S. industrial base, though economists argue that the effort cannot be accomplished in a short period of time, citing high production and labour costs as among the challenges. A survey from the Institute for Supply Management on Monday showed its manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI)¹ contracted for a ninth straight month in November, with tariffs continuing to be cited as a constraint across industries.
• Furthermore, motor vehicle and parts production decreased 2.2% in September after rebounding 3.0% in August. Nondurable manufacturing production dipped 0.1% while mining output was unchanged after rising 0.4% in August. Durable manufacturing output edged up only modestly by 0.1%.
• Utilities production rebounded 1.1%, following a 3.0% decline in August. Overall industrial production ticked up 0.1% after falling 0.3% in August. Industrial output rose 1.6% on a year-over-year basis and grew at a 1.1% rate in the third quarter.
• Overall, capacity utilisation for the industrial sector, a measure of how fully firms are using their resources, was unchanged at 75.9% in September. However, the metric was 3.6 percentage points (pps) below its 1972–2024 average. Further, the operating rate for the manufacturing sector slipped to 75.5% from 75.6% in August and was 2.7pps below its long-run average.

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 ¹This is an economic metric that indicates whether the manufacturing industry is experiencing an expansion, a contraction, or a standstill.

(Source: Reuters)

• Stationary Office Supplies (SOS) booked a 3.3% earnings decline to $59.31Bn for the Q3 period ending September 30, 2025. The decline occurred as revenue growth was outdone by rising operating expenses.
• Q3 revenues totalled $504.77Mn, up 12.6% year-on-year (YoY), keeping it on pace to $2.0Bn in annual revenues. The growth was supported by rising export orders and the launch of the Company’s online sales platform, which has begun to generate sales.
• COGS grew more slowly relative to revenue growth (9.9% to $220.28Mn), reflecting strategic purchasing practices, including larger-volume orders to reduce the cost of goods. This caused gross profits to increase 14.7% to $284.47Mn and gross margins to improve to 56.4% from 55.3% in Q3 2024.
• Meanwhile, operating expenses increased by 19.9%, driven primarily by higher base salaries and the continued recruitment of highly qualified personnel across departments. This ate into previous efficiency gains, resulting in operating profit showcasing only a 2.5% improvement to $62.07Mn.
• Despite the 2.5% operating profit increase, pre-tax profit declined marginally by 3.0%. This was primarily attributable to lower finance income generation, marginal realised loss on investment and the absence of a one-off gain on the disposal of fixed assets of $5.57Mn.
• With the Q3 2025 period folded into the year-to-date (YTD) performance for the nine months ended September 2025 (9M 2025), the company achieved the second-highest YTD revenue in its history, trailing 2023’s outturn by only 3%. However, the upward pressure on operating expenses erased these gains. 9M 2025 earnings were $154.18Mn, a 22.3% contraction compared to the 9M 2024 period.
• Looking ahead, SOS seeks to benefit from the rebuilding effort as it will require massive amounts of administrative and construction-related supplies (paperwork, planning materials, temporary office setups). This could create a significant, albeit delayed, short-to-medium-term surge in local demand for SOS products.
• As at the close of trading on Tuesday, SOS’s stock price closed at J$1.75, reflecting a 4.2% year-to-date increase. At this price, SOS trades at a P/E of 21.9x, which is below the Junior Market Distribution Sector Average of 23.3x.

(Sources: JSE & NCBCM Research)