• On November 16, 2025, the Ministry of Foreign and CARICOM Affairs advised that Trinidad and Tobago (T&T) will benefit from zero reciprocal tariffs on several qualifying agricultural products, including critical nitrogen and phosphate fertilisers entering the United States market.
• This follows the signing of an Executive Order by President Donald Trump on November 14, 2025, modifying the scope of reciprocal tariffs applied under the U.S. tariff regime. The decision reverses the earlier action of April 2, 2025, when these items were removed from Annex II of Executive Order 14257 and subjected to a 15% tariff.
• T&T will be among the beneficiaries, as the United States (U.S.)  will now impose zero tariffs on key nitrogen and phosphate fertilisers, including Anhydrous Ammonia, Urea, and Urea-Ammonium Nitrate (UAN). 
• Currently, T&T maintains a multi-billion-dollar export relationship with the United States, its single largest trading partner for both imports and exports. In 2024, the sovereign exported approximately TT$3Bn in Anhydrous Ammonia, Urea, and UAN to the United States. These products will now enter the U.S. market duty-free, enhancing the competitiveness of its exporters and protecting jobs across the national value chain.
• The update follows several months of engagement between Trinidad and Tobago and senior US officials. In August, local officials met representatives of the United States Trade Representative’s Office and the US Department of Commerce. Further, in September, Prime Minister Kamla Persad-Bissessar and senior government officials visited Washington for discussions with US Secretary of State Marco Rubio, where Trinidad and Tobago’s energy and food-security role was raised.
• Minister of Foreign and CARICOM Affairs Sean Sobers noted that the tariff removal is expected to ease the impact of the earlier increases. He also noted that the Government will continue discussions with the United States to secure further tariff relief and expand market access for energy and non-energy exports.

(Sources: Ministry of Foreign & CARICOM Affairs and CNC3)

• President of Guyana, Dr Irfaan Ali, has set a firm deadline for the monetisation of Guyana’s gas reserves, declaring that the country must make a definitive decision before 2030. Speaking during his feature address at the Berbice Development Summit, the President said that the issue of how Guyana will utilise its natural-gas resources cannot be delayed or passed on to another administration.
•  Dr Ali noted that the government is currently assessing several models for gas use and export, with the aim of maximising national benefits, while balancing sustainability, job creation and industrial transformation. According to the President, the government’s objective is to ensure that ‘every molecule of gas’ contributes to the country’s economic diversification. The ongoing infrastructural developments, including pipelines, industrial parks and downstream facilities, will serve as the backbone of its long-term plan.
• President Ali underscored that while oil has dominated early production, natural gas represents a crucial phase in Guyana’s industrial transformation, one that will determine the pace and depth of economic diversification.
• Fitch BMI concurs, noting that Guyana’s utilisation of gas reserves through a Gas-To-Energy project and strengthening local content rules for oil and gas firms will support growth in the non-oil economy. The commissioning will reduce fuel imports and electricity costs (by 50%). Furthermore, lower electricity tariffs and more reliable power will support construction, logistics, food processing and other power-intensive services. The government has alluded to potential development of downstream hydrocarbon industries, including fertiliser, petrochemicals and refined fuels production. There is also potential for Guyana to develop bauxite mining to feed into new, energy-intensive aluminium production in the 2030s.
• That said, Guyana's economy is set to expand by 9.1% in real terms in 2025 on the back of robust oil production, one of the fastest rates globally, though well below the 43.6% growth rate in 2024. Real GDP growth is set to accelerate to 13.5% in 2026 as the majority of the benefit from the Yellowtail project commencement will accrue in 2026. Over the longer term, utilisation of natural gas production to power Gas to Energy projects could boost economic activity in the coming years.

(Sources: Guyana Chronicle and BMI- A Fitch Solutions Company)

• Japan's economy shrank by 1.8% in the three months through September, as a drop in exports in the face of U.S. tariffs resulted in the first contraction in six quarters, government data showed on Monday.
• Exports constituted the main drag as the impact of higher U.S. tariffs intensified. Automakers saw shipment volume plunge, reversing earlier front-loaded exports ahead of tariff hikes, though they mostly absorbed tariffs by cutting prices.
• Still, as the overall contraction was not as acute as expected, it likely represents a temporary setback rather than the start of a recession, economists said.
• Economists generally viewed this quarter's GDP figures as having a marginal impact on the Bank of Japan's thinking when next deciding interest rates versus factors such as inflation. However, an economist close to Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi gave the data more weight.
• Given the contraction, it "would be misguided for the BOJ to decide to raise interest rates" in December, Credit Agricole chief Japan economist Takuji Aida, who is on Takaichi's flagship panel tasked with laying out the country's growth strategy, said in a report to clients.
• Housing investment also weighed on growth as tighter energy-efficiency regulations introduced in April slowed commitments.
• The weak GDP data comes as Takaichi's government compiles a stimulus package to help households manage rising living costs.
• Advisers to Takaichi have cited a likely sharp GDP contraction as a reason for aggressive stimulus measures. Finance Minister Satsuki Katayama told reporters on Sunday that the proposed economic stimulus would exceed 17 trillion yen ($109.94 billion), media reported.

(Source: Reuters)

• As U.S. agencies on Friday began announcing plans for releasing economic data delayed by the government shutdown, a trio of U.S. central bankers reiterated their concerns about inflation, while the Fed's most dovish policymaker said economic data in hand argued for another rate cut.
• In the meantime, financial markets placed their bets. Late Friday, short-term interest-rate futures, the best real-time indication of trader sentiment on Fed policy, reflected a 60.0% chance that the central bank will not follow its back-to-back rate cuts in September and October with another one in December.
• Market-based odds on that same 60.0% probability were circulating about 24 hours earlier, and before that had been heavily in favour of a rate cut for several weeks since the Fed's October 29 decision. The duelling policymaker views and shifting market bets underscore how hotly contested the decision at the Fed's December 9-10 meeting may be.
• Additionally, traders' views could just as easily reverse next week when government statistics agencies begin publishing economic data for the first time in a month and a half, and more Fed policymakers, including the influential and dovish Fed Governor Christopher Waller, weigh in with their perspectives.
• Kansas City’s Schmid, Dallas’ Logan, and Cleveland’s Hammack reiterated resistance to another rate cut in December, citing insufficient evidence of faster-than-expected disinflation, only gradual labour-market cooling, and risks to the Fed’s 2% credibility, while Governor Miran argued for further easing (and had even pushed for a bigger cut in October). Chair Powell added that policy must proceed cautiously amid limited data visibility from the government shutdown, stressing that a December cut is far from assured, a view traders appeared to reflect by week’s end.

(Source: Reuters)

• Wigton Energy Ltd. (WIG) posted a 33.8% contraction in its earnings for the quarter ended September 30, 2025 (Q2 2025), despite stronger topline performance.
• Revenue rose 34.6% to J$509.37Mn, driven by higher production levels, as output in July 2024 had been disrupted by Hurricane Beryl, creating a favourable year-over-year comparison. Cost of Sales grew marginally (+4.0%) to J$271.43Mn. allowing the gross profit margin to widen to 53.3%, up from 39.5% in Q2 2024, as revenue growth far outpaced cost increases.
• However, Other income (consisting of interest and extraordinary income) fell sharply to J$141.40Mn, down from J$325.42Mn for Q2 2024, reflecting the absence of one-off insurance proceeds due to Hurricane Beryl and lower interest income. Combined with a 5.9% rise in administrative expenses, this pushed operating profit down 25.8%. A 15.9% reduction in finance costs helped moderate the decline, but the operating margin still fell to 41.1% from 75.2%.
• As a result, net earnings contracted despite lower finance expenses and stronger topline performance, as prior-year insurance proceeds and higher operating costs weighed on the quarterly performance.
• That said, for the six-month period, earnings grew 14.4%, supported by a strong Q1 (+56.3%), partially offsetting the weaker Q2 outturn.
• Average plant availability improved to 88.5% for 6M 2025 from 74.9% for 6M period in 2024, which was previously impacted by Hurricane Beryl.
• Following Hurricane Melissa, an assessment at the Rose Hill, Manchester wind farm showed limited damage at Phase I and no physical damage at Phases II and III. Repairs at Phase I are underway. However, this was a stark contrast to the aftereffects of Hurricane Beryl, where damage to its Rose Hill turbines were described as being “significant”. Wigton is likely to receive payout from its insurers to finance repairs.
• While Wigton’s internal restoration activities are advancing, the affected transmission lines that connect the wind farm to the national grid must first be inspected and re-energized by the Jamaica Public Service Company Limited (JPS) before the wind turbines can be fully tested and returned to service. Therefore, it is likely that plant availability will decline in the short term.
• Wigton continues to pursue growth in renewable energy and clean technology, focusing on utility-scale generation, battery storage, and the commercial & industrial segment. The company is advancing two major solar projects totalling 70.53 MW—the largest in Jamaica. The 49.83 MW project is well advanced, as the company has secured key regulatory approvals and progressed PPA negotiations, land arrangements, EPC terms, and financing (a mix of debt and equity). Wigton is also progressing the 20.7 MW repowering project to its Phase I wind facility in Rose Hall, both central to its diversification and long-term earnings strategy.
• For Friday’s close, WIG’s stock price closed at J$1.23, an 11.5% year-to-date decline. At this current price, the company’s P/E is 36.2x, which is above the Main Market Energy, Industries and Materials Sector average of 14.9x.

(Sources: JIS, NCBCM Research)

• Moody’s RMS Event Response estimates private market insured losses from Hurricane Melissa to be between US$3.0Bn and US$5.0Bn, with a best estimate of US$3.5Bn. This estimate represents insured losses associated primarily with wind impacts in Jamaica, the island hardest hit by the Category 5 hurricane. Insured losses for other impacted Caribbean islands, including the Bahamas, Haiti, and the Turks and Caicos Islands, are expected to be minimal.
• Economic losses in Jamaica from the event could potentially exceed the island’s GDP, which was approximately US$20.0Bn in 2024. This loss estimate reflects property damage and business interruption to residential, commercial, industrial, and automobile lines of business, considers post-event loss amplification (PLA), including potential super-cat impacts due to widespread infrastructure damage to roads, power networks, etc., as well as non-modeled losses from extended business interruption and precipitation-induced flooding.
• The estimate does not include losses for any government or sovereign protection programs covering Jamaica (Caribbean Catastrophe Risk Insurance Facility, International Bank for Reconstruction and Development cat bond, and National Disaster policies) resulting from this event, which include both traditional (re)insurance and insurance-linked securities.
• Insurance penetration in Jamaica varies by line of business. Hotels stand out with near-total coverage and strong limits, reflecting their importance to the island’s tourism-driven economy. While take-up rates for other commercial lines are also high, as most businesses have some insurance coverage, there could be significant underinsurance due to inadequate limits.
• In contrast, personal lines take-up is quite uneven, with very low coverage for single-family dwellings, particularly outside affluent neighbourhoods in urban areas. Due to the protection gap, we expect many households and businesses to be vulnerable to severe financial and social disruption from Melissa’s impacts.

(Source: Moody’s Investors Service)

• Cayman’s public finances will remain within the Framework for Fiscal Responsibility, but the cost of servicing public debt will jump in 2027. In its first budget, the National Coalition for Caymanians government outlined its commitment to adhering to the framework’s requirements. However, the rising stock of debt and growing government spending will worry some.
• The framework, introduced into Caymanian law in 2012 through amendments to the Public Management and Finance Law, is intended to ensure responsible financial management. If its rules are breached, then the Cayman Islands government would need to seek UK approval for any significant financial decisions.
• Minister for Finance and Economic Development Rolston Anglin presented the Appropriation Bill (Financial Years 2026 and 2027) 2025 in Parliament on 6 November. The figures stated by the minister show that Cayman’s projected government finances through to 2027 will comfortably meet the framework’s parameters.
• The framework requires the government to run a surplus, and Anglin’s numbers showed a projected surplus of $10Mn in 2025, increasing to $11Mn in 2026 and $37Mn in 2027. The estimated surplus for 2027 is impressive but given the volatile and controversial nature of fiscal projections, not everyone will take that figure at face value.
• It’s a similar story with cash reserves, where the government figures show a slight deterioration in finances, albeit Cayman is far from breaching the requirements. The framework states that Cayman must have enough cash reserves to cover 90 days or more of state expenditure.  Anglin’s numbers showed 97 days of cash reserves in 2025, which drops to 92 days in 2026 before recovering to 96 days in 2027.
• Cayman is in a very comfortable position when it comes to net-debt to revenue, another of the framework’s key metrics. Cayman’s current net debt-to-revenue ratio is 17.2%, well below the 80% threshold. However, by 2027, that will have risen to 24.2%.

(Source: Cayman Compass)

• The United States (U.S.) government lumbered back to life on Thursday, November 13, 2025, after the longest shutdown in U.S. history snarled air traffic, cut food assistance to low-income Americans and forced more than 1 million workers to go unpaid for more than a month. But the deep political divisions that caused the 43-day shutdown in the first place remain unresolved.
• The shutdown also exposed divides within the Democratic Party between its liberal base, which demanded its leaders do whatever is necessary to rein in Trump, and moderates who feel their options are limited so long as Republicans hold majorities in both chambers of Congress.
• Although Republicans control both the House of Representatives and the Senate, along with the Executive Branch, they needed support from Senate Democrats to overcome procedural hurdles in the Senate to reopen the government – support they gained from eight moderate Senate Democrats. This group of Senate Democrats – none of whom are up for reelection in 2026 – joined Republican colleagues to support a stopgap bill that funds the federal government through to January 30, 2026, and includes three full-year funding bills for several government agencies as part of a “minibus” funding package.
• Although the deal will only fund the government through January 30, 2026, the benefits will be swiftly felt. The shutdown’s negative impact and pressure on Senate Democrats mounted with cancelled SNAP food benefits, major travel disruptions from Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) flight reductions, widespread furloughs and layoffs, and a White House threat that payments for 600,000 furloughed workers could be withheld. The agreement to reopen the government will ensure that myriad federal services resume, which is likely to boost confidence among households and businesses. Crucially, it also restores economic data releases, which are essential for US economic policymaking and for the functioning of financial markets.
• Despite these benefits, Senate Democrats are walking away from the record-setting shutdown largely empty-handed. The deal does not include an extension of Affordable Care Act subsidies, a top priority for Democrats in shutdown negotiations.
• Congressional Democrats quickly criticised the deal, lambasting Minority Leader Chuck Schumer for failing to stand up to Senate Republicans and the White House – despite Schumer himself voting against the deal – with some House Democrats calling for his removal as Senate Minority Leader.

(Sources: Reuters, BMI- A Fitch Solutions Company)

• Britain's economy barely expanded in the third quarter of 2025 (Q3 2025), held back by September's cyberattack on Jaguar Land Rover (JLR), according to data on Thursday, November 13, 2025, that underlined the backdrop of slow growth as finance minister Rachel Reeves readies her budget.
• The economy grew 0.1% in Q3 2025, the Office for National Statistics (ONS) noted, slowing from a growth of 0.3% in Q2. Economists polled by Reuters, as well as the Bank of England, had forecast 0.2% growth in GDP for the July-September period. In September alone, the economy contracted by 0.1%, against expectations for a flat reading.
• The ONS reported a 28.6% collapse in the production of motor vehicles in September, the biggest drop since April 2020 during the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic. Overall, motor vehicles subtracted 0.17 percentage points from GDP growth in September alone and 0.06 percentage points for the third quarter as a whole.
• JLR, owned by India's Tata Motors, has three factories in Britain, which together produce about 1,000 cars per day. The hack cost the British economy an estimated 1.9 billion pounds (US$2.55Bn) and affected over 5,000 organisations, an independent cybersecurity body said in a report published last month.
• That said, given the minute increase in Q3 2025’s GDP, investors further ramped up bets that the Bank of England will cut interest rates next month, now seen as a roughly 82% chance from a 60% chance earlier this week, according to market pricing. The pound rose modestly against the dollar after the data.
• The readings are unlikely to sway deliberations around Reeves' November 26 budget, with the economy still growing tepidly despite the government's intention to "kickstart" it. "The UK's unrelentingly sluggish growth trajectory is a headache for the Chancellor (finance minister) as it will inevitably mean a substantial fiscal shortfall at the budget, making major tax hikes look unavoidable," said Suren Thiru, economics director at the ICAEW trade body for chartered accountants.

(Source: Reuters)

• With the devastation wrought by Hurricane Melissa in Western Jamaica, which severely impacted the top 3 parishes for agricultural produce, food production and availability is expected to be stymied with scarcity driving up prices. In response to this, the Rural Agricultural Development Authority (RADA) is urging persons in eastern Jamaica to increase agricultural output to help protect the island’s food security.
• Senior Plant Health and Food Safety Officer with RADA, Francine Webb, said increased production in the east by householders, backyard gardeners and the average citizen is absolutely critical at this time.
• Ms. Webb said an all-hands-on-deck approach is needed by each Jamaican to bolster food security at this time. She explained that “The call is now on the east to step up. We’re going to have to be a bit more efficient. Output from that same plot of land has to increase, the productivity has to go up while we give the west the time to get their lives back together in terms of their housing and bringing the farms back up.”
• Data from the Agriculture, Fisheries and Mining Ministry reveal that damage to agricultural crops and livestock is estimated at J$29.5Bn, with approximately 41,390 hectares of farmland affected and the devastation impacting more than 70,000 farmers. Livestock farmers have also lost approximately 1,251,410 animals, including small ruminants, poultry and cattle, including 50% of the nation’s laying flocks.
• However, the Ministry noted that it is moving fast to stabilise supply and restart production quickly. So far, there has been J$350Mn mobilised immediately for recovery, which is part of a larger J$3Bn long-term plan. Meanwhile, there will also be temporary food imports such as eggs and vegetables to keep prices affordable.
• The government is also providing the materials and support needed to restore fields and herds immediately. There has been distribution of J$40Mn in free seeds and all planting materials will be free for three months. Another J$40Mn has been allocated for urgent poultry sector revitalisation and finally, the government is offering free land preparation for the next six months via RADA.

(Source: JIS, Ministry Agriculture Fisheries and Mining)