• The Central Bank of the Dominican Republic (BCRD), in its monetary policy meeting of May 2026, decided to keep its reference interest rate unchanged at 5.25% per annum. It also kept the permanent liquidity expansion facility (1-day Repos) at 5.75% and the remunerated deposit rate (Overnight) at 4.50%.
• The decision was based on the gradual recovery of the Dominican economy and the fact that recent inflationary pressures are a response to the supply shock caused by higher international oil prices. The agency emphasised that medium-term inflation expectations remain anchored to the target of 4.0% ± 1.0%.
• Nationally, year-on-year inflation reached 5.11% in April, impacted by fuel price adjustments, although core inflation remained within the target range at 4.87%. The Government has implemented partial fuel subsidies and social assistance programs to mitigate the impact of energy prices.
• The Central Bank of the Dominican Republic’s forecasting system projects that inflation will return to the target range in the fourth quarter of 2026, as the effects of the oil shock dissipate. Meanwhile, the economy is showing signs of dynamism: the monthly economic activity indicator (IMAE) grew 4.0% in January-April, driven by construction, free trade zones, and tourism.
• The peso has appreciated by 8.0% as of the end of May, and international reserves have reached US$15.9Bn, equivalent to six months of imports, exceeding the IMF’s recommended metrics.
• The Central Bank reaffirmed that the economy has solid fundamentals and a stable financial system. It reiterated its commitment to act promptly to meet the inflation target and preserve macroeconomic stability in an international environment marked by the crisis in the Middle East.

(Source: Dominican Today)

• The fallout from the Iran war is splitting global manufacturing, squeezing European factories with soaring costs and weak demand even as U.S. and Asian producers ramp up output to stockpile against further supply-chain disruption.
• The economic shock from the Iran war hit European factories last month, suppressing demand for their goods and pushing up raw material costs at the fastest rate in four years, while U.S. and Asian peers saw activity expand due to stockpiling with global supply chains under strain from the conflict, surveys showed on Monday. The U.S.-Israeli-led conflict, which began in late February, has upended trade, rattled financial markets and raised concerns over global energy and commodity supplies, particularly through the Strait of Hormuz.
• S&P Global's Eurozone Manufacturing PMI fell to 51.6 in May from April's near four-year high of 52.2, though ahead of a preliminary estimate of 51.4 (a reading above 50.0 indicates growth). Germany's manufacturing sector stalled while French factories contracted for the first time since November. British factories raised their prices at the fastest rate since June 2022 in response to a sharp increase in costs.
• S. factory output hit its highest level in four years, likely driven by businesses front-loading orders amid rising prices and shortages. The ISM manufacturing PMI rose to 54.0 in May, the highest reading since May 2022, from 52.7 in April, with new orders at a four-month high and supplier delivery times at their longest in four years.
• In Asia, China's private-sector RatingDog1 General Manufacturing PMI eased to 51.8 in May from 52.2 but beat forecasts, even as an official survey showed factory activity stalling. Japan's PMI came in at 54.5, and South Korea's rose to 54.8, its highest since March 2021, while Vietnam (52.8), Taiwan (56.1) and the Philippines (50.8) all expanded, underscoring a region-wide push to build buffers against conflict-led disruptions.
• Taken together, the surveys point to building inflationary pressure worldwide, as war-driven energy and raw material costs feed through supply chains into the prices manufacturers charge. The European Central Bank is expected to keep raising rates this year to stop higher energy prices seeping into core inflation, with euro area inflation seen pushing further above its 2% target, and British, Japanese and other producers all reporting some of their steepest input-cost increases in years, a sign that central banks may face renewed difficulty bringing inflation back to target while the conflict persists.

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¹RatingDog is an independent private-sector financial data and research provider in China, best known for publishing closely watched monthly Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) surveys.

(Source: Reuters and NCBCM Research)

• Iranian negotiators will stop exchanging messages with the U.S. through intermediaries, and Tehran will move to fully close the Strait of Hormuz, in retaliation for ongoing ceasefire violations, Iran’s state-affiliated news outlet Tasnim said Monday.
• The report, in a translated post on the social media site Telegram, homed in on Israel’s military operations in Lebanon against the Iran-backed militia Hezbollah. “No dialogue will take place” until Israel fully withdraws from occupied areas in Lebanon and stops all attacks in both Lebanon and Gaza, per Tasnim. “Also, the resistance front and Iran have resolved to completely block the Strait of Hormuz and activate other fronts including the Bab al-Mandeb Strait, in order to punish the Zionists and their supporters,” the report said. The Bab el-Mandeb Strait is a trade chokepoint that connects the Red Sea to the Gulf of Aden.
• In response to this news, oil prices leapt more than 7% higher following Tasnim’s report, which signalled a breakdown in efforts to reach a diplomatic end to the war that is now in its fourth month. President Donald Trump just three days earlier said he would decide at a meeting in the White House Situation Room whether to agree to a deal with Iran that would at least pause the conflict, but that meeting ended without Trump making a final decision. In the following days, the U.S. and Iran launched new attacks against each other, further eroding the tattered ceasefire that has already been repeatedly ruptured by military operations.
• At the same time, Israel has ramped up its military offensive in Lebanon, with Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu on Monday ordering attacks on Hezbollah-controlled suburbs in Beirut, Reuters reported. Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi said in an X post Monday morning that “the ceasefire between Iran and the US is unequivocally a ceasefire on all fronts, including in Lebanon,” adding that its violation on one front is a violation on all fronts and that the U.S. and Israel are responsible for the consequences of any violation. The White House did not immediately respond to a request for comment on Tasnim’s report, and U.S. Central Command declined to comment.
• Iran’s vow to escalate its clampdown on the Hormuz Strait indicates that oil exports from the Persian Gulf are unlikely to increase anytime soon. Exports through the strait have plunged from prewar levels due to Iran’s blockade.
• Barrel prices for Brent and WTI crude oil, while still highly elevated from their pre-war levels, had retreated by double-digit percentages in recent weeks as investors grew optimistic about the prospect of a deal that would fully reopen the strait, but some of that optimism appears to have evaporated following Monday’s developments.
• Ship traffic through the strait remains effectively choked off, as it has been since the start of the war, with only a trickle of vessels transiting the waterway compared with the more than 100 ships that passed through each day before the war, and Iran’s efforts to exert control have raised concerns that Tehran could impose a tolling system on passing ships.

(Source: CNBC)

• Jamaica’s trade deficit narrowed in January 2026 by US$55.1Mn to US$458.4, as a broad-based contraction in imports outweighed the fall-off in exports. Despite this improvement, the export-to-import coverage declined marginally to 20.0% to (from 20.7% in 2025), meaning Jamaica earned only US$0.20 for every US$1.00 spent on imports.
• Jamaica’s total spending on imports for January 2026 was valued at US$573.1Mn, representing an 11.5% decline when compared to the US$647.6Mn recorded in January 2025. The decrease was mainly driven by lower imports of Raw Materials/Intermediate Goods (-12.3%), Consumer Goods (-10.9%), and Fuels and Lubricants (-30.7%).
• Earnings from total exports for January 2026 were valued at US$114.8Mn, representing a 14.4% decline compared to the US$134.1Mn earned in January 2025. This was driven by a 34.9% fall in the value of Crude Materials (Excl. Fuels).
• Jamaica’s top five trading partners in January 2026 were the United States, China, Brazil, Japan and Trinidad and Tobago. Combined imports from these countries totalled approximately US$379.00Mn, representing a 0.3% increase compared to the US$378.00Mn in 2025.
• On the export side, Jamaica’s main markets were the United States, the Russian Federation, Trinidad & Tobago, the Cayman Islands, and Singapore. Total earnings from these countries fell by 3.1% to US$94.2Mn in January.
• Ultimately, a narrowing trade deficit means fewer US dollars are leaving the country to finance imports relative to the foreign exchange earned from merchandise exports. This helps to ease depreciation pressures on the Jamaican Dollar (JMD). However, despite the modest improvement in January, largely driven by lower oil imports, the trade deficit is expected to widen in the coming months. The anticipated deterioration reflects rising import costs stemming from escalating geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, which have pushed global oil prices higher and are likely to increase the value of imports within the Fuels and Lubricants division.
• While declining remittances and tourism worsen this gap, for the fiscal outlook, a stronger JMD can decrease the local currency cost of servicing Jamaica’s US-dollar-denominated sovereign debt.

(Sources: STATIN & NCBCM Research)

• According to the Statistical Institute of Jamaica (STATIN), the Producer Price Index (PPI) for the Mining & Quarrying industry for April 2026 increased by 0.6%. Similarly, there was a 2.6% increase in the index for the Manufacturing industry. This suggests that the average price of finished goods leaving local factories rose in April, before hitting retail shelves or factoring in distribution markups.
• The increase in the Mining & Quarrying industry was mainly due to a 0.7% rise in the index for the major group, ‘Bauxite Mining & Alumina Processing’. In the Manufacturing industry, the upward movement was primarily influenced by increases in the index for the major groups: Food, Beverages & Tobacco’ (0.2%) and ‘Refined Petroleum Products’ (11.7%).
• That said, for the period April 2025 – April 2026, the point-to-point index for the Mining & Quarrying industry decreased by 7.1%. The decrease was largely attributed to a 7.5 per cent fall in the index for the major group ‘Bauxite Mining & Alumina Processing’. Despite an increase in the monthly index in this division, the index was down due to record exports from Guinea, the world’s largest exporter of bauxite
• Over the same period, the point-to-point index for the Manufacturing industry increased by 8.2%, driven mainly by upward movements in the index for the major groups ‘Food, Beverages & Tobacco’ (3.1%) and ‘Refined Petroleum Products’ (30.4%).
• Looking ahead, movements in the Producer Price Index (PPI) are expected to remain heavily influenced by trends in the Mining & Quarrying Index, despite higher energy prices placing upward pressure on the Manufacturing Index. In particular, the projected bauxite and alumina surplus in Guinea during 2026 could continue to weigh on prices amid softer demand conditions and China’s strict 45 million-ton production cap on primary aluminium output. However, recent export restrictions implemented by the Guinean government could help to moderate some of the downward pressure on prices.
• That said, the Manufacturing index may continue to experience upward pressure, with the crude price remaining elevated as tensions in the Middle East intensify. Furthermore, Liquefied Natural Gas (LNG), which accounts for 70% of local power generation, has seen prices climb by 143% since the onset of the conflict. The resulting increase in energy costs is likely to feed directly into manufacturing expenses through higher production costs, with further volatility expected.

(Sources: STATIN & NCBCM Research)

• Bank of N.T. Butterfield & Son (Butterfield), a Bermuda-based financial services group, has agreed to acquire Canadian Imperial Bank of Commerce’s (CIBC) controlling stake in CIBC Caribbean in a US$1.79Bn transaction that will create a regional banking group with approximately US$29.0Bn in assets.
• Under the terms of the agreement, Butterfield will acquire CIBC’s 91.7% interest in CIBC Caribbean through the purchase of CIBC Investments (Cayman) Limited, the holding company for the stake. Butterfield will then launch a mandatory offer for the remaining minority shares held by public shareholders, with the aim of securing full ownership of CIBC Caribbean.
• The transaction consideration comprises US$1.09Bn in cash and US$703.0Mn in Butterfield shares, valuing CIBC Caribbean at US$1.14 per share. Following completion of the deal, CIBC will retain an approximately 22.0% stake in the enlarged Butterfield group and will initially have the right to appoint two directors to Butterfield’s board. The deal is expected to close in the first half of 2027, subject to shareholder and regulatory approvals.
• “Butterfield and CIBC Caribbean’s expanded capabilities and scale are expected to provide enhanced corporate, personal and wealth management services across their combined client bases,” it stated.
• “Clients can expect greater ability to process cross-border payments, increased consumer and merchant banking capabilities, and continued investments in technology and digital banking infrastructure,” it stated. Butterfield said it will maintain both organisations’ operational footprints, including CIBC Caribbean’s regional headquarters in Barbados, to ensure continuity for customers and staff.
• Butterfield chairman and chief executive officer Michael Collins said the acquisition would position the combined group as a leading independent banking and wealth management platform operating across international financial centres and Caribbean markets.
• To finance the deal, Butterfield has secured commitments for US$700.0Mn in subordinated debt financing that will qualify as Tier 2 regulatory capital. The combined entity is expected to maintain a pro forma Common Equity Tier 1 capital ratio above 12% and total capital above 19% at closing.
• Butterfield projected that the transaction would deliver double-digit earnings accretion, including a 12.0% increase in GAAP earnings per share and a 15.0% increase in cash earnings per share once synergies are fully realised. The bank also forecast annual pre-tax cost savings of about US$49.0Mn by 2030.

(Source: Trinidad Express)

• Dominican Republic Minister of Energy and Mines Joel Santos reported that mining was the fastest-growing sector of the national economy during the January-April period. It recorded a year-on-year expansion of 10.7%, according to data from the Central Bank’s Monthly Indicator of Economic Activity (IMAE).
• Santos attributed the sector’s strong performance to increased gold and silver production, which contributed significantly to the Dominican economy’s overall accumulated growth of 4.0% during the first four months of the year, compared to 2.7% during the same period in 2025.
• The minister noted that the results were achieved despite global economic uncertainty linked to the conflict in the Middle East and rising international oil prices. He emphasised that the Dominican Republic’s mining industry continues to play a strategic role in supporting economic stability during periods of international volatility.
• “The mining sector is the quintessential counter-cyclical sector of the Dominican economy,” Santos said, explaining that metal prices often rise during global crises, helping stabilise the country’s economy. He also highlighted the nation’s mineral wealth, including gold, silver, copper, nickel, bauxite, and limestone, as key drivers of exports, investment, employment, and tax revenue.
• According to the minister, mining exports surpassed US$2.5Bn in 2025, while tax contributions from the sector reached approximately RD$45 billion. He added that the energy sector also recorded positive results, with cumulative growth of 3.5% between January and April.

(Source: Dominican Today)

• The United States (U.S.) and Iran reached an agreement on Thursday, May 28, 2026, to extend their ceasefire and lift restrictions on shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, sources told Reuters, though U.S. President Donald Trump has yet to approve it, and Iranian state media said it had not been ‌finalised.
• According to four sources familiar with the matter, the agreement would extend the truce for another 60 days and allow traffic to flow through the strategic waterway while negotiators tackle difficult issues such as Iran's nuclear program.
• If approved by leadership in Washington and Tehran, it would amount to the biggest step towards peace since the conflict began on February 28. News of the possible agreement came after a round of tit-for-tat attacks between the two countries, the latest such incident since the ceasefire took effect in early April.
• Trump has not yet approved the deal, the sources said. The White House declined to comment, and Iran has yet to comment on news of the proposed deal, which was first reported by Axios. Iran's Tasnim news agency, citing a source close to the ⁠negotiating team, said the text of the agreement had not been finalised or confirmed.
• The Trump administration has several times said a deal to end the fighting was close, only to have Iran dispute or downplay the claims. The deal would specify unrestricted shipping through the Strait and would require the U.S. to lift its blockade of Iranian ports. The U.S. would also lift some sanctions on Iranian oil sales.
• The reports prompted oil prices to fall on hopes of a potential reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, a key transit route for roughly a fifth of the world's oil and liquefied natural gas supply.

(Source: Reuters)

• Canadian Prime Minister Mark ‌Carney called for a "new partnership" with the United States (U.S.) to "help make America great again," in a speech delivered in New York on Thursday, May 28, 2026. Carney said that while the world is undergoing a "rupture" as the U.S. transforms its commercial relationships, working closely with Canada in specific sectors, including aluminium, automobiles and critical minerals, would strengthen both countries.
• Amid an ongoing trade war with the U.S., Carney has vowed to double Canadian exports to other markets in the next decade and signed more than 20 economic and ⁠security deals in the last year. As Carney spoke in New York, U.S. trade officials were in Mexico City in talks with officials there about overhauling the U.S.-Mexico-Canada Agreement on trade. The discussions for now exclude Canada.
• After President Donald Trump's threats to annex Canada as the 51st state, Carney described Canada's ties to the U.S. as "weaknesses we must correct" and said the U.S. had fundamentally changed its approach to trade, raising tariffs to levels last seen during the Great Depression. In January, Carney referred to "American hegemony" in a speech at the World Economic Forum in Davos, Switzerland, saying that greater integration with great powers created "vulnerabilities to be exploited." He called for middle powers to act together, adding that "if we're not at the table, we're on the menu."
• Earlier this week, Carney announced plans for Canada ‌to buy ⁠a fleet of military planes from Sweden, in a pivot from the country's past reliance on American manufacturers. In New York, however, the prime minister adopted a more conciliatory tone, describing the U.S. as "the most dynamic, resilient and inventive country the world has ever known." Carney acknowledged that while ⁠the U.S. and Canada have had disputes, the countries have always worked through them, and that a more independent Canada makes the country a better ally.
• "At a time of a global energy crisis, Canada provides the United States with the reliable power and critical minerals that help fuel American ⁠growth," Carney said. Asked about his January trip to Beijing to meet Chinese President Xi Jinping, Carney said they accomplished "a very basic reset of the relationship." Ties to China had broken down under his predecessor, former Prime Minister Justin Trudeau.

(Source: Reuters)

• The Bank of Jamaica (BOJ) is projecting a gradual recovery of the economy for financial years 2026/27 and 2027/28, with real gross domestic product (GDP) growth forecast to be within the range of 1.0% to 3.0%. This forecast is consistent with the Planning Institute of Jamaica's growth, as all industries are expected to expand as the economy recovers from the 2025 weather-related shocks.
• The forecast was given by Governor Richard Byles during the Quarterly Monetary Policy Press Conference at the Garden Hotel in Mandeville, Manchester, on Tuesday (May 26). The Governor noted that real GDP is also projected to grow at an average of 1.0% to 2.0% per cent over the medium term.
• Additionally, it was communicated that Jamaica’s Gross International Reserves remain robust, at US$6.5 Bn as at May 19, 2026 – representing about 139.6% of the sum considered adequate. “Going forward, Jamaica’s foreign reserve levels are expected to remain adequate over the medium term and will support the orderly functioning of the foreign exchange market, helping to limit volatility and thereby containing imported inflation,” he outlined. The Governor emphasised that the domestic financial system remains sound with adequate capital and liquidity.
• Meanwhile, Governor Byles noted that despite the temporary fall-off in tourism earnings, so far, the foreign exchange market has remained relatively stable. He also highlighted that this stability occurred in the context of the Bank’s continued actions to reduce volatility in the foreign exchange market, as part of its strategy to lower inflation expectations and contain inflation within the target range. He stated that the BOJ sold US$1.3Bn through its B-FXITT facility in the 12 months ending April 2026. This was up from US$1.1Bn in the previous period. Despite this, the Bank purchased US$906.4Bn more than it sold.
• Finally, he also noted that geopolitical tensions and the impact of Hurricane Melissa are expected to weaken the country’s external accounts, driven by higher fuel costs, increased reconstruction-related imports, and setbacks in the tourism sector. As a result, the Central Bank projects the current account balance for 2025/26 to range from a deficit of 0.5% of GDP to a surplus of 0.5%, compared with a surplus of 3% in 2024/25.

(Sources: JSE & NCBCM Research)