• For the six months ended February 29, 2025 (6 Month FY 2024), Sygnus Real Estate Finance (SRF) reported a net loss of J$197.45Mn compared to a J$320.13Mn loss the year prior, primarily due to an increase in its stake in the One Belmont property.
• Interest income rose by 21.9% to J$107.41Mn, up from J$88.12Mn for the 6 months ended February 2025. However, a sharp 145.9% increase in interest expense led to a net interest loss of J$215.85Mn, which widened from J$87.75Mn in the comparable period prior.
• Despite the weaker net interest income, total investment income (core revenues) improved to J$26.59Mn, reversing a loss of J$55.31Mn in 6M FY 2024. This turnaround was driven by lease and other income, a gain on disposal of financial instruments of J$33.73Mn, a gain on acquisition of shares in Joint Venture of J$162.20Mn and share of gain on joint ventures of J$39.26Mn.
• The gain on acquisition of shares reflects SRF’s strategic move to increase its stake in the 9-storey One Belmont commercial tower to 86% from 70%. SRF also acquired a 71% stake in a newly formed joint venture—5658 LMR Limited—whose assets include two resort villa properties in Ocho Rios, St. Ann.
• As SRF transitions into its second investment life cycle, investment activity is expected to ramp up. For the period, the Group deployed J$1.39Bn in new investment commitments—an increase of 119% (or J$753.09Mn) versus J$633.00Mn in the prior year. This was mainly driven by the investment of J$974.36Mn in 4 Real estate investment notes (REINs) during the period, SRF’s acquisition of additional shares in an existing joint venture, and property additions to strategic assets.
• SRF is executing on its strategic objective of seeking to substantially increase its investment in new REINs at higher interest rates with funds generated from ongoing investment exits. The entity has sold investment properties located at 56 and 58 Lady Musgrave Road, and the Hillcrest, Spanish Penwood in the past year. This resulted in total assets slightly decreasing by 0.2% but was offset by an uptick in REINs (+25.3%) and joint ventures (+64.0%).
• SRF’s stock price has depreciated 17.1% year-to-date. The stock price closed Wednesday’s trading session at $8.14 and currently trades at a P/E of 11.97x, above the Main Market Real Estate Sector Average of 6.85x.

(Sources: Sygnus Real Estate Finance & NCBCM Research)

• More than 7,000 jobs could potentially be created from the development of the Raintree Commercial Complex, located just outside Kingston at Caymanas Estate in Ferry Pen, St. Catherine.
• Prime Minister, Dr. the Most Hon. Andrew Holness, on Wednesday (April 16) broke ground and witnessed the contract signing for phase/block one of the project, which forms part of the Caymanas Estate Development Area. Dr. Holness explained that of the total, 2,000 jobs will be created during the construction phase of the project, while over the long term, the complex has the potential to accommodate more than 5,000 permanent jobs.
• He further noted that the Raintree Project is projected to attract capital investments of at least J$3.8Bn in infrastructure and will support long-term private investments exceeding J$15.0Bn. “The over $15 billion of projected private investment on this site, driven by the sale of development lots, will have a multiplier effect, feeding directly into the local economy, creating demand for jobs, services and transportation, and that is how development works best when it generates self-reinforcing cycles of opportunities and progress,” the Prime Minister said.
• The Prime Minister noted that Raintree Commercial Complex is the first phase of a wider transformation of more than 3,400 acres of developable land in the critical area at the crossroads of Kingston, Portmore and Spanish Town.
• Holness also pointed out that the Caymanas Estate Development Block One encompasses 108 acres of subdivided land dedicated to commercial and light industrial development. He added that the space has been zoned, master planned and environmentally assessed to support a new generation of enterprise and employment.

(Source: JIS)

• The escalating trade war between the United States and China is creating significant uncertainty for Costa Rica’s export-driven economy. This month, the U.S. imposed a 145% tariff on imports from mainland China, Hong Kong, and Macao, combining a 125% reciprocal tariff with a 20% existing levy, citing systemic trade imbalances. China retaliated with a 34% tariff on U.S. imports, restrictions on rare earth minerals, and a formal complaint to the World Trade Organisation, intensifying global trade tensions. Since April 12, China has increased its tariff on US goods further to 125.0%
• Costa Rica, heavily reliant on the U.S. for 47% of its $9.4 billion in annual exports, faces a 10% U.S. tariff on its goods, effective April 5, 2025. While this is significantly lower than China’s tariff, it threatens key sectors like medical devices, coffee, and pineapples. Economists warn of reduced U.S. demand, with José Luis Arce predicting negative economic growth if U.S. consumption slows, and Gerardo Corrales forecasting a modest exchange rate increase due to lower export revenues. Additionally, a 25% U.S. tariff on foreign-made cars could raise shipping costs for Costa Rica’s logistics sector, further straining regional trade.
• The Costa Rican Chamber of Foreign Trade (CRECEX) is closely monitoring the situation, noting a potential silver lining. “Costa Rica benefits from a more level global playing field, as a 90-day suspension of higher tariffs on most countries—except China—temporarily standardises competition,” CRECEX stated. Alongside allies like El Salvador, Chile, and Singapore, Costa Rica’s 10% tariff provides a competitive edge over Asian exporters facing steeper duties.
• The Costa Rican government is responding proactively. “We have intensified constructive dialogue with U.S. partners to secure the best market access conditions, leveraging the CAFTA-DR agreement, which ensures tariff-free access for most exports,” said Foreign Trade Minister Manuel Tovar. The Ministry is also pursuing trade diversification, eyeing expanded agreements with the EU, Asia, and Latin America, building on existing pacts with Singapore and Chile.
• However, challenges loom. Small coffee farmers, already dealing with global price volatility, fear reduced U.S. demand could squeeze livelihoods, according to the National Chamber of Agriculture. Costa Rican consumers may also face higher prices for electronics and textiles as global supply chains adjust to China’s reduced U.S. exports.

(Source: Tico Times)

• The Animal Health Laboratories of the Ministry of Agricultural Development (MIDA) have approved three pre-audits from technical delegations from the United States (US), putting Panama one step closer to exporting beef to the US market.  
• During laboratory inspections, key aspects such as infrastructure, sample handling, quality controls, health traceability, and epidemiological surveillance systems were evaluated.  Reinaldo Viveros, National Director of Animal Health at MIDA, reported that only one step remains before submitting the formal equivalence request for meat exports. This includes the regulation of the Law of the Directorate of Food Control and Veterinary Surveillance.
• Meeting these requirements places the country in a privileged position to begin exporting beef to the world’s most demanding markets, which will not only strengthen confidence in the local health system but also boost the economic development of the livestock market. 
• Panama is estimated to export $40 million worth of meat to the U.S. annually, according to projections shared in 2024 by the National Cattle Ranchers Association (ANAGAN). Panama's advancement toward exporting beef to the U.S. could aid in enhancing fiscal stability by generating critical foreign exchange revenue.

(Source: Newsroom Panama)

• The U.S. economy could slow unless interest rates are lowered immediately, President Donald Trump highlighted, repeating his criticism of Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell, who says rates should not be lowered until it is clearer that Trump's tariff plans won't lead to a persistent surge in inflation.
• The comments, and the administration's seemingly intensifying pressure on a Fed chair Trump has stated he would like to see gone, sent stock markets lower and bond yields higher as investors and analysts mulled the fallout should Trump ignite a fight over the Fed's monetary policy independence and try to remove Powell before the end of his term a little over a year from now.
• Trump's repeated threats to fire Powell come as he tries to goad the Fed into quickly cutting interest rates to mitigate a widely expected economic slowdown and possible harm to the labor market due to his tariff and other policies, while Fed policymakers urge caution on concerns inflation, which remains above their 2% target, could be pushed higher by the import taxes. The Fed next meets on May 6-7 and is widely expected to hold the benchmark interest rate steady in the current 4.25% to 4.50% range
• The growth outlook and overall sentiment have both been falling as Trump ratcheted up efforts to impose import taxes on goods from major U.S. trading partners and many core products, with top economists raising the estimated odds of a recession this year. While inflation is expected to decline in upcoming readings, there is broad agreement as well that the import tariffs Trump plans to impose will drive it back to perhaps 4% or higher through the rest of the year.
• Fed officials say that while that price shock may prove temporary, allowing them to cut rates eventually, they worry it could lead to more persistent inflation that would require them to keep credit conditions tighter.

(Source: Reuters)

• The Bank of Japan is expected to signal next week that risks from higher U.S. tariffs won't derail a cycle of rising wages and inflation seen as crucial to keep raising interest rates, said four sources familiar with its thinking.
• The assessment, to be included in its quarterly outlook report due on May 1, will underscore the BOJ's desire to keep alive market expectations of further interest rate hikes, even though the timing of its next move could be months away.
• "It's hard to predict the exact damage to the economy from (President Donald) Trump's tariffs at this stage," said one of the sources. On the other hand, it's clear intensifying job shortages will pressure Japanese companies to keep hiking pay. The language is subject to change as there is no consensus within the BOJ on details of the report, which will not be finalised until closer to the April 30-May 1 meeting.
• Such a hawkish message may help Japan fend off criticism from Trump that Tokyo is keeping the yen artificially weak to give its exports a competitive trade advantage, some analysts say. At the two-day policy meeting ending on May 1, the BOJ will cut its economic growth forecasts and warn of escalating risks from Trump's sweeping tariffs that are set to dent global demand, the sources said.
• The central bank may also push back the expected timing for sustainably meeting its 2% inflation target, which was seen around the latter half of fiscal 2025 in current projections made in January.
• With markets still volatile, the central bank is widely expected to keep short-term rates steady at 0.5% at the April 30-May 1 meeting. Still, many BOJ policymakers are wary of concluding that further rate hikes are completely off the table, given a lack of hard data on the hit from tariffs to the economy and uncertainty over the outcome of bilateral trade negotiations.

(Source: Reuters)

• Data from the Statistical Institute of Jamaica (STATIN) Labour Force Survey (LFS) revealed the unemployment rate stood at 3.7% in January 2025. The 3.7% rate is slightly higher than the 3.5% in October 2024 – the lowest rate on record, but still well below the 5.4% in January 2024.
• The total number of unemployed individuals amounted to 54,500, up from 51,300 in October 2024 and the percentage of unemployed females relative to males is down from 60.0% to 58.0%. Regarding age distribution, the number of unemployed youth (persons aged 14-24) increased by 1,900 to 23,500, representing 43.1% of the total.
• The labour force, consisting of 1,473,900 persons as of January 2025, increased from 1,468,300 in October 2024.  Notably, the total participation rate increased marginally from 68.1% in October to 68.4%, and the percentage of females in the workforce is up from 46.3% in October to 46.7%.
• Notwithstanding the quarterly, increase from October, the number of unemployed individuals is 26,200 lower than 12 Months ago in January 2024. Similarly, the labour force is marginally down from 1,486,400 and the total participation rate is marginally lower than the 69.0% seen in January 2024.
• Despite the decline in participation rate over 12 months, employment levels rose across most categories. The employed labour force expanded to 1,419,500, an increase of 13,800 persons (+1.0%). Employment among males rose by 5,800 (to 763,000) and among females by 7,900 (to 656,400). This growth was concentrated in ‘Technicians and Associate Professionals’ and ‘Professionals’, while the largest industry gains occurred in ‘Education, Human Health and Social Work Activities’.
• Meanwhile, ‘Services and Sales’ remained the largest occupational group, accounting for 343,400 or 24.2% of the labour force. This was followed by ‘Skilled Agricultural, Forestry and Fishery Workers’ (201,400) and ‘Elementary Occupations’ (176,200).

(Sources: STATIN & NCBCM Research)

^[1] Since January 2024 changes to the LFS to incorporate recommendations from the 19th, 20th and 21st International Conferences of Labour Statisticians.

• The Mexican government has halted U.S. fuel imports sent into the country by road, as it cracks down on illegal deals. Trucks carrying gasoline and diesel to Mexico from the U.S. Gulf Coast refining hub are not being permitted to cross the Texas border as the Mexican government investigates import permits and steps up cargo inspections, one of the sources involved in such deliveries said.
• There was no timeline to resume the trucking trade, the sources said, adding that railway and waterborne deliveries of fuel to Mexico from the U.S. have not been impacted. Even though Mexico is a large crude oil producer, it imports much of its fuel requirements from the U.S. as Pemex struggles to efficiently refine the heavy sour Maya crude oil grade it pumps. Mexico is the top buyer of U.S. fuel. According to the latest U.S. Energy Information Administration data, U.S. oil and fuel exports to the country averaged around 35.66Mn barrels per day in January.
• The trading route has proven lucrative for fuel smugglers, pushing Mexico to establish a decree to combat illicit fuel trade in 2023. In recent months, Mexican authorities have seized a vessel and several fuel trucks for what they said were illegal cargos.
• Mexican Security Minister Omar Garcia Harfuch said on March 31 that federal authorities had seized a tanker in Tamaulipas that was carrying 10Mn liters of diesel along with 192 containers and 29 vehicles to transport motor fuels, as well as other vehicles. On March 28, he said federal authorities had seized about 8Mn liters of hydrocarbon products, containers, and vehicles used to transport motor fuels and pumps in Baja California.
• U.S. President Donald Trump's crackdown on illegal immigration and drug trafficking has also increased scrutiny at the U.S.-Mexico border. Nearly 110,000 acres of federal land along the border were transferred to the U.S. Army to help prevent illegal immigration, the U.S. Interior Department said on Tuesday.

(Source: Reuters)

• Saint Lucia’s tourism sector continues its upward trajectory, achieving a landmark EC$3.5Bn in revenue last year, despite operating with 500 fewer hotel rooms. Deputy Prime Minister and Minister for Tourism, Dr Ernest Hilaire, announced the milestone during a press briefing.
• Hillaire noted that the total value of visitor arrivals reached EC$3.50Bn and the country was able to achieve a record-breaking year despite fewer rooms.
• He also highlighted the growing role of alternative accommodation, such as short-term rentals and homestays, in boosting local earnings. Tourism Authority data revealed that over 30,000 visitors opted for Airbnb-style lodgings last year. 
• Moving forward, the ministry aims to further support community-based tourism by promoting small-scale providers and home accommodations. The recent Gimies Awards (St. Lucia Tourism Awards) also underscored the industry’s appreciation for its workforce, honouring the dedication of hospitality professionals.
• The record revenue reflects the sector’s robust performance, which he credited to Saint Lucian hospitality workers. As preparations begin for next year’s Gimies, Hilaire encouraged wider participation, stressing that tourism’s impact extends beyond economics – it’s about people.
• The minister also noted that the government has resolved to continue the thrust to ensure that we get more of the money to be spent in Saint Lucia and to go into the pockets of Saint Lucians

(Source: St. Lucia Times)

• U.S. Federal Reserve (Fed) Chair Jerome Powell said on Wednesday, April 16, 2025, that the Fed would wait for more data on the economy's direction before making any changes to interest rates and characterised recent market volatility as a logical processing of the Trump administration's dramatic shifts in tariff policy.
• "For the time being, we are well-positioned to wait for greater clarity before considering any adjustments to our policy stance," Powell said in a speech to the Economic Club of Chicago.
• In a later question and answer session, he noted a potentially tough situation developing for the Fed in which prices are pushed higher by tariffs while growth and possibly the labour market weaken, leaving both inflation and employment further away from the Fed's desired levels. The Fed tries to keep inflation stable at 2% while sustaining maximum employment.
• "I do think we'll be moving away from those goals, probably for the balance of this year. Or at least not making any progress," due to the impact of tariffs that have proved larger, at least as announced, than even the most severe scenarios pencilled into initial Fed planning estimates, Powell said.
• He called Trump's tariff plans "fundamental changes" that don't provide businesses and economists with any clear parallels to study. Powell noted that the U.S. began the year around full employment, and inflation was expected to continue falling to the central bank's target, an achievement many doubted the central bank could accomplish.
• In his first public remarks on recent financial volatility, Powell said he felt that bond and stock markets were functioning well, with recent swings showing investors adapting to the new policy landscape. Asked if there is a "Fed put" where the central bank would step in if markets plummet, Powell said no, while explaining. "Markets are struggling with a lot of uncertainty, and that means volatility. But having said that, markets are functioning...They're orderly, and they're functioning just about as you would expect them to function."

(Source: Reuters)