• Barbados has secured a US$260Mn precautionary credit line from the IMF, as Prime Minister Mia Mottley warned that escalating global conflict and oil market disruption could trigger economic shocks for the island.
• The country has cleared one of two stages in finalising the three-year stand-by arrangement, after reaching a staff-level agreement with the IMF. The arrangement is expected to go to the IMF’s executive board for approval in June 2026.
• Mottley described the credit line as an “insurance policy”, stressing that Barbados does not need the money now. Instead, the government wants immediate liquidity support available if external conditions create a balance of payments problem.
• Further, the prime minister noted that the arrangement is not a typical IMF programme with fixed disbursements. It is tied to Barbados’ home-grown economic programme and would allow access to all or part of the funds within 24 hours if needed.
• The country is preparing for a possible rise in inflation caused by reduced global oil capacity and the wider fallout from the Middle East war. Mottley said the government will ease its primary surplus target from 4.0% to 3.5% of GDP, creating roughly $80Mn in fiscal space. That additional space is expected to give the finance minister more flexibility to address priority areas such as health, security and coastal defence, while the government also considers other precautionary lending options amid geopolitical uncertainty and interest rate risks.
• By arranging IMF backstop financing before a crisis fully materialises, the government aims to protect fiscal stability, preserve investor confidence, and create room to respond if higher oil prices feed into inflation, utility costs, transportation, and food prices.

(Source: Barbados Today)

• The United States (U.S.) is eyeing Guyana’s bauxite industry, with U.S. Under Secretary of Economic Affairs, Jacob Helberg, confirming that opportunities in the sector were discussed during meetings with President Irfaan Ali.
• According to Helberg, discussions focused on expanding Guyana’s economic activity in bauxite through additional private investment, while also exploring infrastructure upgrades, including roads and potentially autonomous trucking technology, to improve logistics and increase Guyanese bauxite exports to global markets.
• Guyana’s bauxite industry recorded strong growth in 2025, expanding by an estimated 53.4%, with production reaching 3.9 million tonnes and export revenues rising to approximately US$144.1Mn. Helberg noted that bauxite remains a key area of interest because reserves are already known and investment activity is already underway.
• Beyond bauxite, the U.S. also expressed interest in supporting broader mineral exploration in Guyana. Helberg indicated that Washington sees potential for additional untapped mineral resources and discussed the possibility of using advanced surveying technologies to identify new reserves and support future mining development.
• A major part of Washington’s strategy is to encourage greater foreign investment and strengthen Guyana’s capacity to undertake advanced geological surveying and resource development. The US official suggested that increased foreign participation could help expand technical expertise and unlock broader mining potential.
• Discussions also extended to logistics and regional trade integration, with Helberg highlighting Guyana’s potential to become a logistics hub linking northern Brazil to the Caribbean and Panama trade routes. He noted that improved infrastructure and transport connectivity could significantly reduce shipping delays and improve access to international markets for both Guyana and northern Brazil.
• The U.S. interest in Guyana’s bauxite and broader mining sector reflects a growing strategic focus on securing access to critical minerals and strengthening supply chains outside of traditional geopolitical rivals.

(Source: Kaieteur News)

• The Bank of Japan (BOJ) is projected to raise ​its short-term policy rate to 2% from 0.75% by the end of 2027, as robust domestic demand will help ‌the economy absorb external shocks from the Middle East conflict, according to the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) on Wednesday. The assessment lends support to the BOJ's recent hawkish tilt ahead of its June policy meeting, with the OECD arguing that higher inflation expectations, solid wage growth and a closed output gap justify continued rate hikes.
• "The Japanese economy is currently ​in a transitional period, shifting from three decades of near-zero inflation to an economy with rising prices and wages and growth supported ​by domestic demand," the Paris-based body said in a report.
• OECD Secretary-General Mathias ​Cormann, however, brushed aside concerns that the central bank may be acting too slowly to tackle the risk of excessively high inflation. "We don't think the ​BOJ is clearly behind the curve. Inflation expectations are anchored, and wage dynamics are strengthening," he told a news conference.
• On fiscal policy, Cormann urged Japan to discontinue its practice of regularly compiling supplementary budgets and instead limit their use to combat large economic shocks. OECD ‌expects Japan's ⁠economy to expand 0.7% in 2026 and 0.9% in 2027, slowing from an 1.2% increase last year. Inflation will likely converge towards the BOJ's 2% target in 2026-2027 with robust domestic demand underpinning economic growth.
• The recommendations come as the BOJ gears up for another hike in its short-term policy rate from the current 0.75%, with a recent slew of hawkish signals heightening the chance of action at its next meeting on June 15-16. While the ​BOJ has left few clues on ​how far it could raise ⁠rates, its latest estimates showed Japan's natural rate of interest stood in a range of around -0.9% to +0.5%.

(Source: Reuters)

• Britain's economy grew unexpectedly in March to cap another strong first quarter, suggesting it was in better ‌shape as the Iran war escalated, though economists said seasonal distortions were flattering the figures.
• Gross domestic product increased by 0.3% month-on-month in March, the Office for National Statistics (ONS) said, against expectations in a Reuters poll of economists for a 0.2% contraction.
• For the first quarter, the economy expanded by 0.6%, marking the third year ​running of conspicuously strong growth in the first quarter. Economists said measurement issues related to shifts in ⁠spending after the pandemic may be contributing to that pattern.
• Raj Badiani, economics director at S&P Global Market Intelligence, said the stockpiling ​of goods sparked by the Iran war may also have pulled forward demand in March.
• "Nevertheless, recession risks have risen, and we now ​expect the UK economy to contract mildly in the second and third quarters of this year," Badiani said, citing a coming inflation surge caused by higher oil prices and pressure on the Bank of England to raise interest rates.
• The ONS said partial spending data for April "pointed to some weakening ​going into the second quarter". It remains to be seen how renewed uncertainty in Westminster - with investors now unsure about the political ​future of Prime Minister Keir Starmer - will weigh on the economic outlook.

(Source: Reuters)

• A wave of dividend declarations from several major Jamaica Stock Exchange (JSE) Listed companies is poised to inject fresh liquidity into the hands of investors over the coming weeks. This could provide a timely cash flow boost for investors and households ahead of the traditionally high-spending summer period and upcoming back-to-school season.
• Leading the upcoming round of distributions, VM Investments Limited approved an interim dividend of J$0.02 per share payable on June 4, 2026, to shareholders on record as at May 25. This however, represents a reduction relative to its previous payout of J$0.053 per share. One day later, NCB Financial Group Limited is scheduled to pay interim dividend of $0.50 per ordinary stock unit for investors on record as at May 22^nd. The company has maintained the same payout level as its prior distribution
• The flow of shareholder returns will continue later in the month, with Fontana Limited having approved a dividend payment of $0.25 per share, unchanged from its last dividend payment in June 2025. The amount is payable on June 12, 2026, to shareholders on record as at May 28, 2026. Carreras Limited is also set to distribute an interim dividend of J$0.46 per stock unit on June 18, 2026, to shareholders on record as at May 27. Notably, the latest payout represents a 15% increase over its prior distribution, reinforcing Carreras’ longstanding reputation as one of the more consistent dividend-paying companies on the JSE, with a current dividend yield of approximately 6.1%.
• This will be followed by additional payouts from both Pan Jamaica Group Limited and regional conglomerate Massy Holdings Limited (MASSY), which have declared dividends payable on June 25 and June 26, respectively. PJAM declared a first interim dividend of J$0.175 per share down 33.4%, while MASSY announced an interim dividend of TT$0.0354 per share, unchanged from its last dividend amount. Both companies will pay shareholders on record as at May 29.
• Closing out the June payment cycle, Jamaican Teas Limited (JAMT) announced a capital distribution of J$0.025 per ordinary share, a 25.0% increase relative to JAMT’s September 2025 payout. This will amount to approximately J$54.5Mn, payable on June 30, 2026, to shareholders on record as at June 5.
• The momentum in shareholder distributions is also expected to carry into July, with Dolla Financial Services Limited (DOLLA) advising that its Board approved an interim dividend of J$0.037 per ordinary share, payable on July 13, 2026, to shareholders on record as at June 29. This amount, however, marked a 99.7% decline relative to DOLLA’s previous $0.06 payout which marked a 400% increase at that time. 
• The clustering of dividend payments across June and July could provide a meaningful seasonal boost to consumer liquidity, particularly as many Jamaican families begin preparing for the high-spending back-to-school period that traditionally intensifies during the summer months. The payments also come as households and small investors continue to navigate the aftereffects of Hurricane Melissa, which disrupted economic activity in several communities and added pressure to household budgets since late last year.
• Beyond their immediate cash flow benefits, the latest dividend declarations also reinforce the continued importance of dividend-paying equities within the Jamaican stock market, particularly for income-oriented investors seeking recurring returns alongside long-term capital appreciation. The announcements further highlight the earnings resilience and cash-generating capacity of several listed companies despite the challenging operating environment, which may continue to support investor confidence in the local equity market.

(Sources: JSE & NCBCM Research)

• Despite continued disruptions stemming from Hurricane Melissa, food distributor Everything Fresh Limited (EFRESH) delivered revenue growth for the quarter ended March 31, 2026 (Q1 2026). However, elevated financing costs and hurricane-related operational inefficiencies weighed on profitability, resulting in net profit attributable to shareholders falling to J$28.5Mn (33.1%).
• Revenue increased 3.2% year-over-year (YoY) to J$1.09Bn, supported by continued demand across its operations. Nevertheless, management noted that the business continues to experience lingering disruptions stemming from Hurricane Melissa, including challenges within the hospitality and tourism-linked segments that remain in recovery mode.
• Direct costs also rose at a faster pace than revenues during the quarter, increasing 5.2%. Accordingly, gross profits contracted by 3.7% to J$225.44Mn, while gross profit margins compressed by 150 basis points to 20.7%, down from 22.2%.
• On the operating expense side, administrative and selling expenses saw a marginal improvement (-0.7%), easing slightly to J$170.80Mn from J$172.0Mn in Q1 2025. As a result, the company improved its expense-to-sales ratio to 15.7%, compared to 16.3% in Q1 2025, partially offsetting the pressure from weaker gross margins.
• Nonetheless, operating profit declined 12.7% to J$55.01Mn, while finance costs increased to J$18.9Mn (+10.9%). The combined impact of lower gross profits and higher financing costs weighed on the bottom line. Consequently, net profit margins weakened to 2.6%, relative to 4.0% previously.
• With EFRESH’s US$2.31Mn bond maturing on June 30, 2026, the company is expected to refinance the facility through the capital markets via GK Capital Management Limited, as disclosed in its audited financials. The near-term maturity contributed to a 197.6% increase in current liabilities.
• EFRESH currently trades at a P/E of 54.87x, which is above the Junior Market Distribution Sector Average of 22.49x. The company’s share price has declined by 2.3% year-to-date to J$2.14 at the close of trading on May 13, 2026.

(Sources: EFRESH Financials & NCBCM Research)

• Radio Jamaica Limited (RJL), operating under the RJRGLEANER Communications Group brand, announced on May 12, 2026, that it has entered into a binding agreement with LP Azar Limited for the sale of its North Street property in downtown Kingston, including adjacent lots and parking areas.
• The divestment forms part of the media group’s broader restructuring and modernisation strategy as it seeks to streamline operations, improve efficiency, and sharpen focus on its core print, digital, and broadcast businesses.
• The proceeds from the transaction will support the continued consolidation of operations at the company’s Lyndhurst Road campus, reflecting an ongoing shift toward a leaner operational model amid the evolving media landscape. That said, the transaction remains subject to customary closing conditions and is expected to be completed within approximately 45 days.
• RJR’s ordinary share price closed trading at J$2.12 on May 13, 2026, reflecting a 2.6% decrease year-to-date.

(Sources: Jamaica Stock Exchange & NCBCM Research)

• A new international fiscal report says Guyana's explosive oil production is not only transforming the economy, but also fundamentally changing how the Government earns revenue.
• According to the recently released Revenue Statistics in Latin America and the Caribbean 2026 report, Guyana has become a major driver behind declining tax-to-GDP trends in the Caribbean because the country's economy is expanding much faster than its tax collections.  Non-tax revenues in Guyana have surged sharply between 2019 and 2024 as oil production accelerated.
• "Guyana drove the overall decline in tax revenues as a share of GDP in the Caribbean between 2019 and 2024," the report stated. It added that "non-tax revenues increased strongly in Guyana between 2019 and 2024," partially offsetting the decline in tax revenues as a share of GDP.
• According to the report, traditionally, governments rely heavily on taxes such as Value Added Tax (VAT), corporate taxes, income taxes and import duties to finance public spending. However, Guyana's oil production boom is rapidly altering that model. At the same time, the report suggests that revenues flowing directly from the petroleum sector, including royalties, profit oil and other state earnings classified outside traditional taxation are becoming increasingly important to the country's finances.
• The report explained that Guyana's tax-to-GDP ratio fell by 2.4 percentage points in 2024 because economic growth far outpaced increases in tax revenue. Oil-related GDP reportedly expanded by 58% in 2024, while non-oil GDP grew by 13%.  This means that although Guyana may still be collecting more taxes in absolute terms, the economy is growing so quickly due to oil production that taxes now represent a smaller share of overall national output, the report noted.
• The report noted that the Caribbean region's average tax-to-GDP ratio declined to 22.3% in 2024, due largely to falling revenues in Trinidad and Tobago and Guyana's rapid economic expansion. Guyana recorded the lowest tax-to-GDP ratio in the entire Latin America and Caribbean region at 9.2%, far below the regional average of 21.7%.
• Meanwhile, the publication pointed out that countries across Latin America and the Caribbean continue to lose enormous sums due to tax evasion and aggressive tax planning. According to ECLAC estimates cited in the report, the region lost US$433 billion in 2023, equivalent to 6.7% of GDP because of tax evasion and avoidance.

(Source: Kaieteur News)

• In Trinidad & Tobago (T&T), macroeconomic stability was maintained in 2025, supported by continued strength in the energy sector and a notable expansion in non-energy activity, according to economist Dr Vaalmikki Arjoon.
• Arjoon highlighted that the energy sector grew by 2.2% in the first three quarters of 2025, supported by increased gas production from the Cypre and Mento fields. "However, the most striking development was recorded in the non-energy manufacturing sector, which expanded by 12.0% over the same period," he said.
• The sector has also demonstrated longer-term resilience, growing by more than 50.0% since the immediate pre-Covid period (Q3 2019), despite ongoing challenges in the private sector, including global supply chain disruptions affecting raw material imports, foreign exchange constraints, and port-related inefficiencies.
• "The food processing industry in the manufacturing sector appears to be the strongest performer, growing by 16% in the first three quarters. Further, 2025 also points to an increase in consumer spending, with point-of-sale purchases increasing by 8.1%," he said.
• In the first quarter of fiscal 2026 (October to December 2025), the economy recorded a modest fiscal surplus of $100 million. "Brent crude is currently hovering around US$105, while the LNG benchmarks used to calculate our gas price, like JKM, Dutch TTF and UK NBP, are all ranging between US$15 and US$20 per mmbtu.
• Indeed, these prices are much higher than the oil and gas prices the budget was predicated on, US$73.25 per barrel and a gas price of $4.25 per mmbtu. This, therefore, strengthens energy revenues for the State, improves export earnings and foreign exchange, and widens our overall fiscal space," said Arjoon. He added that these higher prices, especially if prolonged, could also narrow the overall fiscal deficit projected for the year, or may even produce a small surplus by September 2026.
• "It also means that some portion of the revenues is likely to have been deposited into the Heritage and Stabilisation Fund. Naturally, higher earnings from the energy sector might also cause, at the very least, the ratings outlook to improve from negative to stable, or even to positive," he said.
• Arjoon said while the International Monetary Fund (IMF) has projected growth of 0.7% in 2026 and 2.95% in 2027, he argued that stronger-than-expected energy revenues could allow T&T to outperform these forecasts. Additionally, improved fiscal space could support higher capital expenditure without increased reliance on borrowing.

(Source: Trinidad Express)

• The Bank of England (BoE) will hold borrowing costs at 3.75% this year, a Reuters poll of economists found, though over a third expect at least one ​rate hike as the Iran war fuels an energy price surge that drove up inflation forecasts. Financial markets ‌are more certain, pricing in two rises this year. The BoE said after its meeting last month that the worst-case fallout from the war could lead to "forceful" rate increases, though less damaging outcomes may not require any
• BoE Governor Andrew Bailey noted last month that investors should not necessarily expect hikes. ​But at the April meeting, BoE chief economist Huw Pill broke with other Monetary Policy Committee members and ​voted for a rise. "We continue to expect the BoE to remain on hold this year ⁠as financial conditions have tightened and the labour market continues to loosen," analysts at Goldman Sachs said. "That said, we see ​a low hurdle for the BoE to deliver a couple of hikes during the summer if energy price pressures continue ​to build."
• The outlook has become more politically and economically fraught following a bruising local election for Prime Minister Keir Starmer that prompted calls for his resignation. Investors are increasingly uneasy about Britain’s fiscal footing, just as elevated gilt yields and energy risks tighten financial conditions.
• Still, several respondents said ​elevated gilt yields and tighter financial conditions may already be doing some of the Bank’s work, reducing the need for ​a more aggressive tightening cycle despite mounting inflation risks. The May 11-13 poll's steady outlook comes even as inflation jumped to 3.3% in March and ‌is ⁠expected to peak at 3.6% in the fourth quarter - almost double the central bank's 2.0% target.
• Nearly 40% of the 56 economists surveyed expected at least one rate hike by the end of 2026, up from 23% in the April poll and a sharp shift from earlier this year when nearly all said the next move would be lower. Seven predicted at least one reduction ​in the latest poll. "We are adjusting ​our assumptions for the ⁠impact of the Middle East conflict on the UK economy. Of the three scenarios we set out in March – the good, the bad and the ugly – we are moving our ​base case from the good to the bad," said Elizabeth Martins, senior economist at HSBC. Martins ​now sees two ⁠25 basis point increases this year compared to none predicted in April.
• Last month, policymakers abandoned a single central forecast and instead laid out multiple scenarios, signalling growing uncertainty over how inflation and the broader economy would evolve. Weak growth forecasts were largely left unchanged, with the economy expected to grow 0.8% this year and 1.2% next.

(Source: Reuters)