• As the US continues its military buildup in the Caribbean, regional leaders and experts are warning that this can have a negative impact on T&T and the rest of the region’s economies.
• Venezuela continues to ramp up rhetoric against T&T, as two weeks ago, its Defence Minister Vladimir Padrino López sent another strong message to T&T that military exercises with the US are a potential “aggression” against Venezuela. Two weeks ago, former prime minister Dr Keith Rowley warned that T&T could become a soft target should the United States launch military action against Venezuela, arguing that the country’s offshore gas platforms could be among the first assets placed at risk.
• Social researcher Daurius Figueira, who has published books on the energy relationship between T&T and Venezuela, agrees with international reports that military action could negatively affect the economies of the region, including T&T. He told the Sunday Business Guardian that the tensions are causing uncertainty, and this could turn off potential investors, whether it is T&T or the rest of the Caribbean.
• He warned that an outright invasion of Venezuela will destabilise South America and drag T&T and the Caribbean into acute economic hardship, worsening what already exists. “In the event of war, T&T is a valid military target that must be neutralised for the defence of Venezuela. The prime target is our energy infrastructure, specifically Atlantic. T&T has made itself a valid military target. Mutually assured destruction for T&T and Venezuela.”
• According to Bloomberg in an article dated November 24, any military conflict could drive away sun-seeking visitors just as the peak tourism season is getting underway, with tourism jobs accounting for more than 75 per cent of employment in places like Aruba, St. Lucia and Antigua and Barbuda.
• Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff General Dan Caine met T&T’s Prime Minister Kamla Persad-Bissessar last week, where they discussed topics like regional security, although no mention was made of Venezuela in the following press releases. Venezuelan energy writer Werther Sandoval, in an article dated November 23, in the Venezuelan daily newspaper El Ultimas Noticias, asked, now that the Dragon gas field project has been buried because of political tensions with Venezuela, what will be the alternative for T&T’s economic future.
• “In recent days, the Government of the Prime Minister of T&T has been trying to stem the growing public discontent caused by the already evident budget crisis generated by the decline in gas production, which threatens to worsen after Venezuela suspends joint exploitation agreements for border fields.”

(Source: Trinidad & Tobago Guardian)

• European leaders rallied to show support for Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy on Monday, December 1, 2025, after U.S.-Ukrainian talks to revise a peace proposal that initially favoured Russia, while the U.S. envoy headed to Moscow to brief the Kremlin. Zelenskiy was warmly received by French President Emmanuel Macron in Paris and the two joined a call with about a dozen other European leaders, including those of Britain, Germany, Italy, Poland and the European Union.
• Zelenskiy told a joint press conference with Macron after their meeting that Kyiv's priorities in peace talks were to maintain sovereignty and ensure strong security guarantees, and that territorial disputes remained the most complicated. He called on Ukraine's Western allies to ensure Russia was not rewarded for the war it started and said he hoped to hold talks with U.S. President Donald Trump after Trump's special envoy Steve Witkoff had visited Russia this week. Macron told reporters that only Ukraine could decide on its territories in peace negotiations with Russia. Macron later discussed Ukraine in a call with Trump, the Elysee said, adding that they "discussed the conditions for a robust and lasting peace in Ukraine".
• S. and Ukrainian officials have yet to make public any amendments they have so far agreed to the 28-point plan, which Washington presented to Kyiv less than two weeks ago. Kyiv and its European allies have been pushing for revisions to terms, which call for Ukraine to give up more territory than Russia has seized, curb the size of its army, renounce joining NATO and be barred from hosting Western troops. Ukraine says that would amount to capitulation and leave it prone to eventual conquest by Russia, which invaded in 2014 and 2022.
• The intensified negotiations have arrived at a difficult juncture for Kyiv, which has been losing ground at the eastern front while facing the biggest corruption scandal of the war. Zelenskiy's chief of staff, who had also led the Ukrainian delegation at peace talks, resigned on Friday after anti-corruption investigators searched his home. Two cabinet ministers have been fired, and a former business partner of Zelenskiy has been named as a suspect.
• Meanwhile, Russia has shown no sign of backing off its maximalist demands while its forces continue to make slow progress on the 1,200-km (750-mile) front line. Russia said on Monday its forces had captured another settlement in eastern Ukraine, Klynove in the Donetsk region. It has also been bombarding Ukrainian cities nightly with long-range strikes, mainly targeting energy infrastructure, frequently leaving Ukrainians in cold and darkness as the war's fourth winter sets in.

(Source: Reuters)

• The United States (U.S.) on Monday, December 1, 2025, assumed the 12-month presidency of the Group of 20 (G20) major economies amid a bitter feud with outgoing president South Africa, and Washington said it will focus its agenda on promoting economic growth and prosperity.
• The U.S. State Department issued a statement outlining its priorities for its presidency, vowing to undertake "much-needed reforms" and "return the G20 to focus on its core mission of driving economic growth and prosperity to produce results." "We will prioritise three core themes: unleashing economic prosperity by limiting regulatory burdens, unlocking affordable and secure energy supply chains, and pioneering new technologies and innovations," it said in a statement.
• Next year's summit will take place in Miami at a golf resort owned by U.S. President Donald Trump, who last week said that he would not invite South Africa. Washington skipped this year's gathering hosted by Pretoria and accused South Africa of weaponising its leadership of the group.
• South African President Cyril Ramaphosa on Sunday dismissed Trump's threat, saying his country remained a "full, active and constructive" member of the G20, and rejected as "blatant misinformation" Trump's repeated claims that South Africa is committing "genocide against Afrikaners" - descendants of Dutch settlers - and confiscating land from white citizens.
• Washington boycotted this year's G20 leaders' summit from November 22-23 at Trump's direction, following his repeated allegations, widely discredited, that the host country's Black-majority government persecutes its white minority. G20 leaders at the summit, defying Washington's objections, issued a declaration addressing the climate crisis and other global challenges on November 22.
• That said, South Africa–U.S. relations will remain strained in 2026, making tariff reductions, from the current 30% reciprocal rate, unlikely. However, most key South African exports are already exempt from reciprocal tariffs. As such, economic gains would be minimal. Nevertheless, U.S. political pressure on South Africa will intensify in several ways, including the exclusion from the 2026 G20 summit and its exclusion from any African Growth and Opportunity Act extension².

________________________________

²AGOA provides eligible sub-Saharan African countries with duty-free access to the U.S. market for over 1,800 products, in addition to the more than 5,000 products that are eligible for duty-free access under the Generalised System of Preferences program.

(Sources: Reuters, BMI, A Fitch Solutions Company)

• Output prices for producers in the Mining and Quarrying industry, a component of the producers' price index (PPI), decreased by 4.2% for October 2025, while the index for the Manufacturing industry declined by 0.2% according to the Statistical Institute of Jamaica (STATIN).
• The decrease in the index for the Mining & Quarrying industry was primarily due to a 4.4% fall in the index for the major group ‘Bauxite Mining & Alumina Processing’.
• On the other hand, the decline in the PPI for the Manufacturing industry was due to a 1.6% decrease in the index for the major group ‘Refined Petroleum Products’. The overall decrease in the industry was; however, moderated by a 0.1% increase in the index for the heaviest-weighted major group ‘Food, Beverages & Tobacco’.
• For the period October 2024 – October 2025, the point-to-point index for the Mining & Quarrying industry decreased by 31.7%. This was mainly due to a decline of 32.9% in the index for the major group ‘Bauxite Mining & Alumina Processing’.
• Meanwhile, the point-to-point index for the Manufacturing industry increased by 2.4%. This was due to a 3.6% upward movement in the index for the major group ‘Food, Beverages & Tobacco’. However, the industry’s overall increase was tempered by a 3.7% fall in the index for the major group ‘Refined Petroleum Products’.
• Looking ahead, given the expectation for a ceasefire between Russia and Ukraine, there is an increased likelihood of a deceleration in international oil prices. Furthermore, eight OPEC+ countries, which have been gradually raising production in 2025, are expected to keep their policy to pause hikes in the first quarter of 2026 unchanged. This could result in lower imported input costs for domestic manufacturers and place further downward pressure on the index.

(Sources: STATIN, NCBCM Research)

• In the aftermath of Hurricane Melissa, Jamaica is expected to run sizeable fiscal deficits in the near term, estimated at 6.5% of GDP in FY2025 and 3.1% in FY2026, as the government ramps up disaster relief efforts. This is a reversal of Jamaica’s well-established trend of fiscal responsibility, which saw Jamaica run budget surpluses each year since FY2017, save for 2020 during COVID.
• Hurricane Melissa will put strong pressure on Jamaica’s fiscal position. Initial government estimates had put total economic damage at US$6–US$7Bn, more than 30% of GDP, an estimate officials described as conservative. The scale of the damage implies a massive recovery program to rebuild infrastructure, support households and businesses and strengthen climate resilience against future shocks, necessitating substantial increases in government outlays.
• While the size and scope of the relief package are still to be determined, substantial budget deficits will be required to finance recovery and rebuilding. Prime Minister Holness has indicated that the government will suspend Jamaica’s fiscal rules, as it did in 2020 in response to COVID-19. This enables the government to run the necessary budget deficits while allowing the debt-to-GDP ratio to rise relative to existing fiscal targets, which is designed to lower the debt-to-GDP ratio to 60% by FY2027. That said, as seen after COVID, expectations are for policymakers to return to a fiscally sustainable posture after the recovery from Hurricane Melissa.
• Jamaica’s recovery will likely be lengthy; however, the country has built fiscal buffers to withstand natural disasters and fund rebuilding. Its US$150Mn catastrophe bond was fully triggered on November 7th, providing essential disaster relief. Additionally, as of June 2025, the Minister of Finance has already set aside total disaster funding of over US$800Mn (already budgeted and financed), supporting fiscal stability by reducing the amount that the government must borrow.
• Furthermore, if recovery needs exceed current allocations, which they almost certainly will, given the extent of the estimated cost of damage, Jamaica’s strong fiscal position provides room to increase relief spending without jeopardising fiscal stability. In addition, international support is being deployed, offering further tailwinds for Jamaica’s extended recovery. Finally, initial assessments from the International Monetary Fund (IMF) underpin the optimistic view, indicating that Jamaica has sufficient buffers to fund immediate disaster relief efforts, empowered by a strong fiscal and external position.

(Source: BMI, a Fitch Solutions Company)

• Local participation in Guyana’s offshore supply chain continues to expand, with Guyanese investors taking on larger roles in shore bases and port facilities that serve the country’s rapidly growing oil and gas industry. 
• Minister of Natural Resources Vickram Bharrat said this shift is one of the clearest signs that the Local Content Act is reshaping the sector in favour of domestic ownership. He noted that Guyana’s legislation prevents a repeat of what often happens in new oil-producing states, where international operators “bring their supply chain with them” and local companies struggle to enter the market. By contrast, he said, “Our local companies…they are now part of that supply chain too.”
• Bharrat pointed to the composition of the country’s two operating shorebases, the Guyana Shore Base (GYBSI) and the Vreed-en-Hoop Shore Base (VEHSI), which both include Guyanese partners.  A third port is underway, led by another Guyanese investor. Bharrat said it is evidence that locals are moving beyond service-level roles into capital-intensive infrastructure.
• The Minister explained that this wave of investment stems from clear carve-outs in Schedule One of the Local Content Act, which protects specific categories for Guyanese companies. He said local accommodation, transportation, logistics and catering providers have used that foundation to grow, and the same trend is emerging in larger projects such as shorebases and port terminals.
• He stressed that the expansion reflects confidence among local businesses, not just compliance with policy. “You will see more and more Guyanese taking up the challenge and investing in the sector.” Bharrat said Guyana’s approach is now seen as a model for other new producers seeking to ensure that major infrastructure remains rooted in the domestic economy. 

(Source: Oil Now)

• Ministers, senior policymakers, academics, and representatives of international organisations gathered in Montevideo during November 17–18 for the IMF–OECD high-level conference “Making Reforms Happen in Latin America” to examine how the region can accelerate inclusive and sustainable growth through credible institutions, modernised regulation, technological innovation, and politically feasible reform strategies.
• Despite advances in strengthening macroeconomic stability and policy frameworks, Latin America’s growth remains low, constrained by weak productivity, high informality, and other structural bottlenecks. At the same time, shifting global forces offer new opportunities that require coherent, politically viable reforms supported by stronger institutional foundations. While needed reforms are well known, challenges often arise in how to make these happen—the key theme of the conference.
• IMF managing director Kristalina Georgieva underscored the need for perseverance in reform implementation, while that of the OECD secretary general, Mathias Cormann, highlighted key structural reform priorities, including reducing informality and increasing competition.
• In the keynote address, Chile’s former minister of finance Andrés Velasco underscored that today’s reform challenges are primarily political. He argued that politics are shaped by identity bonds that generate trust in public institutions. Only when such trust exists are citizens willing to accept short-term costs in support of long-term reforms, helping build durable coalitions for reform.
• Political-economy considerations featured prominently in the conference. Speakers emphasised the role of credible, long-term political cooperation in making reforms succeed, but institutional weaknesses often prevent societies from converting broad social demands into coherent and sustained policy action.
• Presenters across different sessions highlighted the risk of complacency, showing how periods of stability can delay needed reforms until vulnerabilities accumulate. They outlined priority areas for Latin America, including productivity, competition, digital readiness, labour markets, and taxation, emphasising that smarter and fairer policy design can advance both efficiency and inclusion.
• The business dynamism discussion underscored that Latin America’s growth is held back by structural frictions, but reforms that modernise regulation, strengthen competition, and invest in technology and skills can unlock productivity and foster more inclusive growth.

(Source: Caribbean News Global)

• The new head of the Bank for International Settlements (BIS) has said reining in hedge funds' ability to make highly leveraged bets in government bond markets should be a key priority for policymakers given rapidly increasing public debt levels.
• Pablo Hernández de Cos, who took over as General Manager of the umbrella body for central banks in July, said the combination of high debt and growing role of non-bank financial institutions (NBFIs) such as hedge funds in bond markets posed new financial stability risks.
• The worry is their use of leveraged "relative value" trades like cash-futures basis trades, which look to exploit small price differences between bonds and their futures contracts. These strategies have boomed in the U.S. and other major economies but have been in the sights of regulators after margin calls on U.S. Treasury future trades in 2021 fuelled a bout of turmoil in the world's biggest government bond market.
• "Around 70.0% of bilateral repos taken out by hedge funds in U.S. dollars and 50% in bilateral repos in euros are offered at zero haircut, meaning that creditors are not imposing any constraint on leverage using government bonds," de Cos said in a speech at the London School of Economics.
• With ageing populations and rising defence spending projected to push the debt-to-GDP ratio of advanced economies to 170% by 2050 absent fiscal consolidation, de Cos said reining in NBFI leverage was a "key policy priority".

(Source: Reuters)

• Long-term net migration to the United Kingdom (U.K.)  fell by more than two-thirds in the year to June, official data showed on Thursday, November 27, 2025, extending a downward trend fuelled by tougher government policies to curb arrivals. Immigration, both legal and illegal, has dominated political debate in Britain for over a decade, with successive governments imposing stricter visa rules and higher salary thresholds, and the current government promising more.
• The Office for National Statistics (ONS) noted that net migration had fallen to 204,000 from 649,000 in the 12 months to the end of June due to fewer non-European Union (EU) nationals arriving for work and study and a continued, gradual rise in emigration levels. Immigration by non-EU nationals for work fell 61%, while study-related immigration dropped 25%, the ONS said.
• The falls come after a ban on most international students bringing dependants, which took effect in January last year, while salary thresholds for skilled worker visas rose in April. Both were enacted by the previous Conservative government.
• The current Labour government has been tightening policies to counter Nigel Farage's populist Reform UK party, which campaigns on an anti-migration platform and holds a double-digit lead in opinion polls. A policy effectively ending immigration by care workers, the single biggest driver of work migration in recent years, and an even higher salary threshold of 41,700 pounds for skilled worker visas took effect in July.
• This month, the government announced further sweeping reforms, including making refugee status temporary, speeding up the deportation of those arriving illegally, and doubling the qualifying period for some workers to obtain settled status to ten years.
• Revised ONS data last week showed that net immigration peaked earlier and at a higher level than previously thought, 944,000 in the 12 months to March 2023, and fell to 345,000 in 2024. Despite recent drops, polls show voters still view immigration as the country's main issue, in part due to highly visible arrivals on small boats from France to seek asylum.

(Source: Reuters)

• In the aftermath of Hurricane Melissa, Jamaica’s current account is expected to return to a deficit in the near and medium term as exports fall and imports rise.
• Jamaica’s recovery effort will require imported construction materials, machinery, fuel, food and medical supplies, which will raise the import bill and widen the trade deficit in the near term.
• Additionally, expectations are for Jamaica’s exports to fall, with service exports declining due to disruptions to tourism, and goods exports decreasing on the back of reduced bauxite production and shipment, as seen in the months following Hurricane Beryl.
• However, the current account will be supported by a likely surge in remittances, with the Jamaican diaspora increasing transfers in response to Hurricane Melissa. Remittances as a percentage of GDP rose from 15.3% in 2019 to 24.4% in 2021 as inflows surged in response to the pandemic, and remittances are expected to accelerate again in 2025 and 2026, buttressing Jamaica’s external position. Additionally, increased foreign aid will also support Jamaica's current account.
• That said, the external sector poses limited downside risk to macroeconomic stability, buttressed by a relatively benign and declining external debt profile, composition and healthy reserve levels. Overall external debt declined to 60.1% of GDP in Q1 2025 from 64.9% in Q1 2024, with short-term debt as a percentage of overall external debt falling from 18.6% to 17.1% over the same period. Nevertheless, while Jamaica has a strong track record of external debt reduction, the expected contraction in GDP, the impact of Hurricane Melissa on revenue inflows and a potential increase in foreign debt to fund recovery efforts could stall this downward trend.
• Additionally, remittances and tourism have supplied the central bank with ample reserves, acquired through surrender requirements, which reached US$6.1Bn in October 2025, covering an estimated 7.3 months of imports. These reserves will be a vital buffer during Jamaica's recovery, helping the central bank to support the local currency while ensuring that the island has the foreign currency necessary to pay for imports.
• Additionally, Jamaica’s net international investment position (NIIP) continued to improve, easing to -100.8% of GDP in Q1 2025, from an estimated -154.7% in Q1 2019, a positive development flagged by the International Monetary Fund (IMF). Furthermore, the composition of Jamaica’s NIIP helps to mitigate risk: direct investment accounted for 52.0% of total liabilities in Q1 2025, up from 48.5% in Q1 2021, while portfolio investment declined from 24.7% of total liabilities in Q1 2021 to just 20.6% in Q1 2025, underscoring Jamaica’s stable external position.

(Source: BMI, a Fitch Solutions Company)