• Further expansion of the energy value chain in Guyana and Suriname is expected in 2026, as stakeholders fast-track actions to monetise hydrocarbon resources and balance the energy transition.
• Building on the seamless incorporation of new production phases, the fifth stage, Uaru, of Guyana's Stabroek flagship deepwater acreage is scheduled to come online with 250,000 barrels per day (b/d). Development drilling may also begin for Stabroek's seventh phase, Hammerhead.
• On the exploration front, seismic acquisition is on the radar, with planned shoots across shallow water lots 1, 2, 3 and 4, which include blocks awarded in Guyana's first offshore licensing round. There is also talk that a second offshore round will be launched in the new year.
• Meanwhile, the 300 mega-watt (MW) power plant that is part of Guyana's gas-to-energy project is pencilled in to enter service toward the end of 2026. The project includes a gas pipeline and a natural gas liquids component. Results are also due in the coming weeks and months for calls to build an ammonia and urea plant, to establish a Liquefied Petroleum Gas (LPG) bottling and logistics company, and to advance the 165MW Amaila Falls hydro project.
• For Suriname, a second final investment decision (FID) to tap its offshore resources could come in 2026 and would target natural gas at block 52, following the first FID for the GranMorgu oil project at block 58. In November, a declaration of commerciality was announced for block 52's Sloanea field.
• As in Guyana, gas is forecast to play an increasing role in Suriname's energy mix, particularly for power generation. Additionally, Suriname's government has pinned hopes on national oil company Staatsolie's open-door offering for offshore acreage, which covers five sectors totalling over 70,000km² in water depths ranging from five to 3,000m. Expectations are also high following the signing of production sharing contracts for offshore blocks 9 and 10.

(Source: Bnamericas)

• Labour market weakness, uncertainty about inflation and political pressure will push the Federal Reserve to lower interest rates aggressively in the early part of 2026, according to Mark Zandi, chief economist at Moody’s Analytics. Though markets and Fed officials themselves see only modest easing in the year ahead, Zandi expects the central bank to enact three cuts of a quarter percentage point each before midyear.
• “Behind the decision to ease monetary policy further will be the still flagging job market, particularly in the early part of 2026,” he wrote. “It will take more time for businesses to feel certain that they will not be wrong-footed by shifting trade and immigration policies and other threats before they resume hiring.” “Until then, job growth will remain insufficient to forestall further increases in unemployment, and as long as unemployment is on the rise, the Fed will cut rates.”
• Zandi’s forecast is at least a step ahead of both market and Fed expectations, both of which point to a slower pace of reductions. Market pricing currently points to two cuts, the first not coming until at least April and the second more likely in the back half of the year, probably around September, according to CME futures data.
• Fed policymakers have an even more cautious outlook. The central bank’s grid of individual officials’ expectations indicates just one cut through the entire year, according to an update presented earlier in December. Minutes showed the cut at the meeting was a close call, with officials seeing the likelihood of additional reductions but at a tepid pace.
• Zandi thinks the confluence of factors will cause the Fed to move more quickly. One wild card is the potential for President Donald Trump to remake the central bank’s hierarchy, with Trump appointees already on the board and more changes possible as terms expire, including Jerome Powell’s chairmanship in May and efforts to remove Governor Lisa Cook.
• “Trump will also pressure for lower interest rates. Federal Reserve independence will steadily erode as the president appoints more members to the Federal Open Market Committee, including the Fed chair in May,” Zandi wrote, adding that political pressure will intensify heading into the midterm elections. The FOMC meets again Jan. 27–28, and market pricing is putting just a 13.8% probability of a cut at that meeting.

(Source: CNBC)

• Mortgage rates are lower, home prices are easing and there is more supply on the market for sale. All of that adds up to improved affordability for today’s homebuyers. Saving for a down payment, however, is still the biggest hurdle for first-time buyers. Prices nationally are basically flat compared with where they were a year ago, according to Parcl Labs.
• They dipped into negative territory earlier this month and are now just 0.3% higher year over year. The latest S&P Cotality Case-Shiller home price index, which reflects pricing from October, showed large disparities among metropolitan markets, with Chicago, New York and Cleveland having the biggest gains and eight cities in negative territory, including Tampa, Phoenix and Dallas.
• “National home prices also continue to lag consumer inflation… roughly 1.8 percentage points higher than the latest housing appreciation… implying a slight decline in inflation-adjusted home values,” explained Nicholas Godec of S&P Dow Jones Indices. Mortgage rates, too, are coming down.
• The average on the 30-year fixed mortgage is currently 6.19%, down from well over 7% earlier this year. For a buyer putting down 20% on a $410,000 home, the monthly payment today is about $200 less than a year ago as weaker prices and lower rates change the math for first-time buyers.
• The typical homebuyer now needs seven years to save for a down payment, down from 12 years in 2022 but still roughly double pre-pandemic levels. Down payments continue to be the biggest hurdle to homeownership, which fell to 65%, the lowest level since 2019.
• An improved supply of homes for sale is adding momentum to the market, with active listings about 12% higher than a year ago, and pending home sales up 3.3% month-over-month and 2.6% year-over-year. “Improving housing affordability… and more inventory choices compared to last year are attracting more buyers to the market,” said Lawrence Yun.

(Source: CNBC)

• Jamaica’s international reserves remain at historically strong levels despite a weakened external position following the impact of Hurricane Melissa, which struck the island on October 28, according to the Bank of Jamaica (BOJ).
• BOJ Governor Richard Byles noted the country’s reserves stood at approximately US$6.3Bn in mid-December 2025, representing about 151% of the adequacy benchmark^[1]. International reserves are foreign-currency assets held by the central bank to pay for imports, stabilise the exchange rate and cushion the economy against shocks.
• Meanwhile, the Central Bank has intensified its interventions to maintain stability in the foreign exchange market since the passage of Hurricane Melissa. Byles reported that the BOJ has injected US$250Mn into the market, including the direct supply of foreign exchange to selected energy-sector players to remove large, irregular purchases from open trading. Nevertheless, the country’s international reserves are still anticipated to remain robust over the near to medium term.
• In the near term, the reserve position is expected to be supported by disaster risk financing, multilateral funding and grant inflows, including proceeds from the Caribbean Catastrophe Risk Insurance Facility and Jamaica’s catastrophe bond. Furthermore, gross reserves are projected to remain above the ARA 100% benchmark over the medium-term.
• The BOJ has also reinstated advance notices of foreign exchange intervention sales, a move which is expected to improve market expectations around liquidity. As a result, the exchange rate remained broadly stable between November 1 and mid-December, relative to end-October levels. Over the 12 months to the end of November 2025, the BOJ sold approximately US$1.1Bn through its B-FXITT facility, broadly in line with sales over the previous year. During the same period, net foreign exchange purchases totalled about US$1Bn.
• That said, risks to the reserve projections are tilted to the downside. The main downside risks stem from weaker remittance and travel inflows, reflecting slower growth in source markets and a more protracted recovery in the tourism sector. In addition, net private capital inflows could fall short of projections. As such, if these downside risks materialise, pressures in the foreign exchange market could be more protracted than projected.

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¹The International Monetary Fund’s Assessing Reserve Adequacy (ARA) metric

(Sources: Caribbean National Weekly & BOJ)

• Jamaica’s winter tourist season has exceeded expectations, with an influx of over 70,000 visitors within the first seven days, reflecting not only the island’s growing appeal but also its strong recovery from recent challenges.
• Of the total arrivals, around 46,000 were stopover visitors, while an additional 30,000 tourists arrived via cruise ships. Since the passage of the hurricane, Jamaica has welcomed a total of 370,000 visitors and generated US$331.20Mn in tourism revenue.
• Jamaica’s strong start to the winter season underscores tourism’s critical role in the national economy. Increased visitor arrivals have driven a welcome rise in early revenue, while the US$331.20Mn generated since the hurricane highlights tourism’s ongoing contribution to economic recovery and long-term growth.
• As Jamaica progresses through the winter tourist season, stakeholders are confident that the country will continue to attract record numbers of visitors. Furthermore, given the central importance of the tourism industry to Jamaica’s economy, its quick recovery will be a priority for the Jamaican government. As such, with ongoing investments in infrastructure, workforce development, and tourism marketing, Jamaica is well-positioned to continue its recovery and growth in the coming years.

(Sources: Travel and Tour World & BMI, A Fitch Solutions Company)

^[1]  The International Monetary Fund’s Assessing Reserve Adequacy (ARA) metric

• The Environmental Management Authority (EMA) issued a Certificate of Environmental Clearance (CEC) to Exxon-Mobil Trinidad and Tobago Deepwater Ltd (ExxonMobil) for the conduct of a three-dimensional seismic survey with a total area of 8,825 square kilometres within Block TTUD-1, located off Trinidad's east coast. This now opens the door for ultra-deepwater exploration, which could aid in facilitating the reshaping of Trinidad and Tobago's (T&T) economic future.
• Prime Minister Kamla Persad-Bissessar announced ExxonMobil's return in September after more than 20 years and noted that the company could invest up to US$21.7Bn in T&T over the coming years if hydrocarbons were to be discovered offshore. That said, TTUD-1, a combination of seven blocks east of T&T, is set to cost Exxon US$42.5Mn (TT$288Mn) in the first phase. Per the block’s product-sharing contract, development cost is estimated at between US$16.4Bn and US$21.7Bn.
• ExxonMobil’s agreement covers the drilling of two exploration wells, with one well in each of the optional second and third phases of the exploration period. The company also agreed to administrative charges, minimum payment, training contributions, research and development contributions, technical assistance, equipment bonus, and scholarships.
• The approval marks a significant milestone, being the first issued by CEC for activities related to the exploration for hydrocarbon resources within the ultra-deepwater marine area, and is the second CEC approval issued for the offshore exploration for oil and gas under the newly appointed board of directors. Furthermore, the approval was granted well within the EMA's statutory timeframe, underscoring the Authority's commitment to efficient, transparent, and timely decision-making processes according to the Planning Ministry.

(Source: Trinidad Express Newspaper)

• The European Commission is escalating its pressure on Caribbean citizenship-by-investment (CBI) programmes, warning that their operation alone could now justify suspending Schengen visa-free access¹ for participating states. This shift places Antigua and Barbuda and other nations squarely in the spotlight.
• In its 8th annual Visa Suspension Mechanism report, the Commission abandoned its long-held demand for “genuine links” and instead declared CBI schemes run by visa-exempt countries to be an inherent security risk. “The operation of such programmes constitutes, in itself, a ground for suspending the visa-free status of third countries,” the report states. This marks a significant hardening of European Union (EU) policy and suggests that countries, even those making major reforms, could face punitive action.
• Antigua and Barbuda, Dominica, Grenada, Saint Kitts and Nevis, and Saint Lucia are again singled out for operating “large-scale” programmes, which are viewed as a “significant and ongoing challenge” to EU border security. Across these five nations, over 100,000 citizenships have been granted through investment channels, with strong market demand continuing, as noted by the ⁠13,113 applications processed in 2023 and ⁠10,573 in 2024.
• Antigua and Barbuda’s programme has one of the lowest rejection rates, just 1.7%, a point the EU highlights as evidence that screening remains insufficiently stringent despite enhancements made in recent years.
• Regional governments, however, have worked to strengthen compliance, agreeing to a harmonised minimum investment threshold of US$200,000; stronger due diligence through international firms; and shared intelligence and cross-border security cooperation. Yet Brussels says these improvements do not remove the perceived threat. Instead, it now insists that heightened due diligence must continue “pending the discontinuation” of CBI schemes altogether, signalling that total shutdown, not regulation, is the long-term objective.
• CBI revenues remain a critical economic pillar for these countries, supporting housing and public infrastructure, debt management, post-COVID fiscal recovery, and climate resilience projects. Consequently, any move to suspend Schengen visa-free entry, a major selling point of the programme, could sharply impact investor demand and public finances for these nations.

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¹Schengen visa-free entry allows citizens from eligible countries (like the US, Canada, UK, Australia, Japan) to visit the 29 Schengen Area countries for tourism, business, or short visits (up to 90 days in any 180-day period) using only a valid passport, with no visa needed.

(Source: Antigua News)

• The Federal Reserve (Fed) on Tuesday, December 30, 2025, released minutes from its highly divisive meeting earlier this month, which concluded with a vote to lower interest rates again that appeared to be an even closer call than the final vote indicated. Ultimately, the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) approved a quarter percentage point cut by a 9-3 vote, the most dissents since 2019, as officials debated over the need to support the labour market against concerns about inflation. The move lowered the key funds rate to a range of 3.5%-3.75%.
• However, concerns arose about the FOMC's future level of aggression. Officials expressed confidence that the economy would continue to expand at a “moderate” pace, while they saw downside risks to employment and upside risks to inflation. The extent of the two dynamics divided FOMC policymakers, with indications that the vote could have gone either way despite the six-vote victory for the cut.
• The faction favouring keeping the rate steady “expressed concern that progress toward the Committee’s 2 per cent inflation objective had stalled in 2025 or indicated that they needed to have more confidence that inflation was being brought down sustainably to the Committee’s objective.” Officials noted that President Donald Trump’s tariffs were boosting inflation, but they also largely agreed that the impact would be temporary and likely abate in 2026.
• Since the vote, economic reports have pointed to a labour market where hiring is still slow, but layoffs have not accelerated. On the prices side, inflation has been slowly easing but remains a distance away from the Fed’s 2% target. At the same time, the broader economy continues to perform well. Gross domestic product soared in the third quarter, rising at a 4.3% annualised pace that was well ahead of estimates and a half percentage point better than the strong second quarter.
• However, most of the data carries a significant caveat as reports are still trailing as government agencies round up data from the dark period during the government shutdown. Even the reports coming in that are more current, at least from official sources, are being weighed with caution due to the data gaps. Consequently, markets largely expect the FOMC to stay put over the next few meetings as policymakers weigh incoming data.
• Also at the meeting, the committee voted to resume its bond-buying program. Under the new setup, the Fed will be acquiring short-term Treasury bills in an effort to calm pressures in short-term funding markets. The central bank initiated the program by buying US$40Bn a month in bills, staying around that level for several months before downshifting. A prior effort to reduce the balance sheet saw the Fed cut its holdings by about US$2.3Tn to its current US$6.6Tn.

(Source: Reuters)

• A year ago, as the dust settled from President Donald Trump’s re-election, Wall Street was confident that he would not follow through on his campaign promises about tariffs. By spring, reality had set in. The world’s largest economy had the highest effective tariff rates in nearly a century, and President Trump was committed to resetting the global trade system.
• At the beginning of 2025, the average United States (U.S.) tariff rate stood near 2.5%. That same rate now stands north of 15.0% after just less than a year of President Trump's second term in office. As the calendar flips to 2026, analysts see only limited opportunities for de-escalation in the year ahead.
• Trump's last major tariff move of the year came in November, when he removed tariffs on goods like coffee and cocoa, but elsewhere the president seems as intent as ever on keeping rates at current levels.
• The latest calculations from the Tax Foundation find that the average applied US tariff rate is 15.8%, while the Yale Budget Lab calculates an overall average effective tariff rate for consumers of 16.8%. Both outlets note these levels mark the highest rates in at least 80 years.
• Meanwhile, a Yahoo Finance review of tariff projections for 2026 saw 15.0% crop up again and again as a general rule of thumb when planning for tariffs in the coming year. In other words: not a major change. As Bloomberg Economics put it in a recent note, the global economy will now have to learn to live with American protectionism.

(Sources: Yahoo Finance & Wall Street Journal)

• Kingston Properties Limited (KPREIT) completed the acquisition of its third property in the United Kingdom (UK) on December 24, 2025. The property, known as Lakeview East, is a 17,000 SF Grade A office building located within Crossways Business Park in Dartford, which is a premier commercial park on the immediate outskirts of London.
• The building boasts a strong energy performance rating, aligning with KPREIT’s Environment Social and Governance (ESG) objectives and its disciplined focus on acquiring high-quality assets that meet evolving sustainability standards. The property is leased to a global shipping conglomerate with total assets of £264Mn and a reported net income of £20Mn in 2024. They have been in continuous occupation since 2009.
• Dartford is located approximately 20 minutes outside of Central London and has experienced significant population growth over the last 15 years, ranking among the fastest growing towns in England. Crossways Business Park is a well-established mixed-use development featuring office, industrial, and distribution spaces, attracting a diverse range of businesses.
• This acquisition further strengthens KPREIT’s exposure to resilient commuter-belt office locations supported by robust infrastructure, a diversified employment base, strong fundamentals, and institutional-grade tenants. This property represents the company’s third UK-based acquisition, following the purchase of Aztec West Business Park in December 2024 and Dorking Business Park in March 2025.
• The transaction was funded through a mix of debt and equity, bringing KPREIT’s geographic distribution to: Jamaica (42%), Cayman Islands (39%), the UK (16%) and the US (3%).
• KPREIT’s stock price has decreased 0.4% since the start of the calendar year. The stock closed Monday’s trading session at $9.39 and currently trades at a P/E of 13.8x, which is above the Main Market Real Estate Sector Average of 8.6x

(Sources: JSE & NCBCM Research)