• Total offshore production from Guyana’s Stabroek Block has hit over 700,000 barrels of oil per day, President of ExxonMobil Guyana Limited Alistair Routledge confirmed at a press briefing on Monday, October 13.
• The start-up of the Yellowtail development is behind the spike. The project struck oil on August 8. According to Routledge, Yellowtail production was “around 740,000 barrels per day in September”. Production is now somewhere around 770,000 barrels per day.
• Yellowtail is the fourth producing project offshore Guyana, joining Liza 1, Liza 2, and Payara. Together, the developments give the country more than 900,000 b/d of installed production capacity. All four are situated in the prolific Stabroek Block, operated by ExxonMobil, along with partners Hess, which was recently acquired by Chevron, and CNOOC.
• With a gross domestic product (GDP) growth projected at 10.3%, Guyana is the fastest-growing economy in the Latin America and the Caribbean region by a significant margin according to the United Nations Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean (ECLAC).
• Guyana’s explosive growth is largely due to the considerable investment and ongoing development in its oil and gas industry with ExxonMobil and its partners having outlined plans to boost output capacity to 1.7 million barrels of oil equivalent per day by 2030. Guyana grew by 43% in 2020, peaked at 63% in 2023, and is forecasted to grow by an additional 10.3% in 2025.

(Sources: Oil Now & ECLAC)

• Surging business investment is expected to offset weaker growth in consumption and global trade and keep the U.S. economy growing near trend, according to a National Association for Business Economics (NABE) survey. However, slow job growth, higher unemployment and stickier inflation will mar the outlook.
• The Trump administration's new import taxes remain a drag on the economy's performance, the survey concluded, with more than 60% of the 40 economists in the poll estimating tariffs would knock up to half a percentage point from economic growth, with both imports and exports falling, and consumer prices rising as a result of the levies.
• While none of the polled economists saw tariffs boosting growth, the latest version of NABE's quarterly survey upgraded the more pessimistic views about the U.S. outlook. This upbeat in the growth outlook follows projections offered earlier in the year when concerns about the economic blow from tariffs and the risks of a broader trade war were at their peak. That said, the median projection was for the economy to grow 1.8% in 2025, around most estimates of underlying potential, compared to 1.3% projected in the June survey.
• Inflation as measured by the Federal Reserve's preferred Personal Consumption Expenditures price index was seen ending the year at 3%, down slightly from the 3.1% projected as at June. But it was also seen declining only to 2.5% in 2026, compared to 2.3% in the June survey, indicating a slower return towards the Fed's 2% target.
• The unemployment rate, meanwhile, was seen rising through next year though less than feared as at June to 4.5% versus 4.7% in the prior survey.
• More notably, the Fed is seen cutting interest rates, though at a slightly slower pace than anticipated by investors, with only one more rate cut anticipated this year versus the two quarter-point cuts currently priced into contracts tied to the central bank's benchmark interest rate.
• Overall, the survey highlighted one of the ongoing puzzles that Fed officials in particular are trying to understand - GDP growth that has begun surprising to the upside while job growth remains tepid.

(Source: Reuters)

• U.S. President Donald Trump's threat of additional 100% tariffs on Chinese imports has sounded alarm bells among retail and trade experts, who caution it could lead to more price increases and squeeze demand.
• The fresh levies, set to take effect November 1, would come as shoppers and retailers enter the holiday shopping season - a period that typically accounts for a major chunk of annual retail sales - and dampen consumer sentiment, particularly among lower-income households.
• The tariff threat could prompt a "pull-forward of shipments" as retailers try to beat implementation timelines, said Blake Harden, managing director at Washington Council EY. However, he cautioned that accelerated imports might still be hit by duties upon arrival, leading some firms to delay orders or hold shipments in China. "This will have ripple effects throughout the supply chain," Harden said.
• The trade spat this year between the U.S. and key trading partners has clouded the economy, weighed on forecasts for this fiscal year and stoked uncertainty for American consumers and companies alike.
• Prices for everything from clothes to TVs have gone up in recent months as manufacturers and retailers struggle with the ever-changing tariff environment while also trying to offset rising commodity and supply-chain costs.
• "This will add another layer of anxiety to an already anxious retail sector. Retailers have shown they can manage tariffs, but what's far harder to manage is volatility in tariff rates," CFRA analyst Arun Sundaram said.
• So far this year, retailers have issued mixed outlooks ahead of the holiday season. Target and Best Buy maintained their annual forecasts, while Walmart and Macy's raised theirs. Toymaker Mattel, however, reduced its expectations.

(Source: Reuters)

• FirstRock Real Estate Investments, “FirstRock” through its wholly owned subsidiary First Rock LATAM S.A., announced the successful completion of its third development project with KFC Costa Rica. The project, which started in April 2025, features a modern restaurant (handed over in June 2025) and an advanced distribution centre (handed over in August).
• Strategically located in Coyol, the main industrial hub of Costa Rica, this development, particularly the distribution centre, holds significant value for KFC as it will enhance and streamline its logistical operations across the region.
• Management noted that the project’s completion reinforces FirstRock’s growing regional footprint and dedication to creating long-term value through innovative and sustainable real estate investments across Latin America and the Caribbean.
• After the market closed on October 9, 2025, FIRSTROCK shares traded at $10.89 per share, up 8.5% year to date. At this price, the stock carries a 0.72x P/B multiple, which is above the 0.57x Real Estate Sector Average.

(Source: JSE)

• Minister of Tourism, Hon. Edmund Bartlett, has commended the three local properties that have been ranked among the top-10 hotels in the Caribbean and Central America in the Condé Nast Traveller Readers’ Choice Awards 2025.
• They are Jamaica Inn in Ocho Rios, St. Ann, at number four; S Hotel Montego Bay at number five; and S Hotel Kingston at number seven.
• Speaking with JIS News, he noted that the recognition by one of the most reputable travel outlets in the world is a testament to how Jamaica’s hospitality sector is viewed internationally and has further cemented the island’s position as a first-call destination of “the highest order”.
• The Condé Nast Traveller Readers’ Choice Awards are among the travel industry’s most prestigious honours, determined by discerning readers who rate properties on service, design, location, and overall guest experience.
• General Manager of Jamaica Inn, Kyle Mais, expressed pride in the acknowledgement. Likewise, Chief Executive Officer (CEO) of S Hotels Jamaica, Christopher Issa, said he was happy that both S properties have been recognised.

(Source JIS)

• The Panama Canal has ended its fiscal year on a high note, with preliminary figures showing revenues up 14.4% to US$5.7Bn and total vessel transits rising 19.3% to 13,404 for the year ending September 30, 2025. The increase was driven mainly by container and liquefied petroleum gas (LPG) traffic, marking a robust rebound in global maritime flows through the strategic waterway.
• Container ships and LPG carriers have carried much of the momentum this year. Demand for both segments remained strong, fueled by tighter vessel availability and continued congestion at the canal. Bulk carriers, which had previously lagged, also began to recover, a welcome sign for operators who weathered quieter periods in recent years.
• Interestingly, while LPG volumes surged, liquefied natural gas (LNG) traffic did not keep pace. Canal officials attributed this to ongoing global market challenges, including freight rate volatility and weaker LNG demand in key import regions. Discussions are already underway on how to improve transit flexibility for LNG carriers, a segment that remains strategically important for the canal’s long-term balance.
• Starting October 5, 2025, the canal authority extended service hours and introduced an updated transit reservation system aimed at improving accessibility for shippers. These operational changes come alongside a recently approved government budget that includes a significant US$1.6Bn reservoir project - a long-term investment designed to bolster the canal’s water supply and capacity. From November, transit quotas will adjust to 31 ships per day, split between 9 Neopanamax and 22 Panamax passages. The decision reflects a balancing act: maximising throughput while managing environmental and operational constraints.
• While the canal’s performance looks healthy on paper, the picture at sea tells a more complex story. Persistent congestion has led to surging LPG time charter rates, with some operators choosing to bypass Panama altogether, rerouting vessels via the Cape of Good Hope. It’s a costly alternative, but one some shippers say buys predictability in a year of uncertainty.
• Even as this year’s financials impress, the Panama Canal Authority (ACP) has cautioned that fiscal 2026 may bring softer numbers. Economic headwinds, tariff shifts, and freight rate volatility could all dampen volumes. Still, investment continues. Expansion projects are being lined up for 2026 to enhance capacity and sustainability. Among them: the new NetZero slot, launching this month, which gives preferential access to low-carbon vessels, a first for the canal. As global trade patterns evolve, the canal’s strategy seems clear: stay open, stay adaptable, and keep water - and ships - flowing.

(Source: BreakBulk News)

• Chevron is set to begin drilling its Korikori 1 exploration well offshore Suriname this month, according to the South American nation's state-owned oil company and market regulator Staatsolie. The well will be drilled 78 kilometres from Suriname’s coast in the north-central part of offshore Block 5, in a water depth of about 40 metres, Staatsolie said in a statement.
• Chevron received a permit in July from Suriname’s National Environmental Authority (NMA) for the well, Staatsolie said. The harsh environment, Jack-up Noble Regina Allen, will drill the well and is scheduled to reach the block in the first half of October, Staatsolie said. Drilling should take about 90 days.
• Noble in March announced a $17.7Mn contract for the Noble Regina Allen, set to begin in the fourth quarter of this year, though it did not name the operator at the time. That contract will run from October through December, according to the company’s fleet status report.
• Block 5 covers about 2,200 square kilometres and lies 45 to 82 kilometres offshore with water depths ranging from 30 to 60 metres, according to Staatsolie. Chevron operates Block 5 with a 40% interest, and its partners include Staatsolie subsidiary Paradise Oil Company (40%) and QatarEnergy (20%). Industry sources told Upstream in February that Chevron was readying the Suriname well for drilling in the fourth quarter.

(Source: Upstream Online)

• The Bank of Japan (BoJ) can raise interest rates if prospects of durably meeting its 2% inflation target improve, but would struggle to justify doing so this year, given weak signs in the economy, according to former deputy governor Masazumi Wakatabe. Wakatabe, who is known as a fiscal and monetary dove, endorsed the central bank's cautious policy normalisation and said more rate hikes could come if the economy improves. He noted the economy was "at a historical turning point" with companies raising prices regularly in a departure from their past caution over doing so.
• But Wakatabe warned of recent weak signs in the economy that suggest underlying inflation, which has been flat around 1.6%, may not accelerate much. Private economists also project Japan's economy to contract in the third quarter, Wakatabe added. "Recent data shows Japan's labour market stagnating. If Japan's third-quarter GDP data prove weak, it would be hard to justify raising rates in December," he said.
• The government will release third-quarter gross domestic product (GDP) data on November 17. After a meeting scheduled for October 29-30, the BOJ board holds its final policy-setting meeting for this year on December 18-19. An advocate of expansionary fiscal and monetary policy, Wakatabe is among academics with ties to Sanae Takaichi, who is on course to become the next premier after her victory in a weekend ruling party leadership race.
• Upon winning the race, Takaichi made clear the government will take the lead in setting fiscal and monetary policy, and that her priority would be to reflate domestic demand. The yen slumped to an eight-month low against the dollar this week as markets saw Takaichi's win as reducing the chance of a near-term rate hike. "The BOJ hasn't committed to a set timing for raising rates and hasn't dropped any signals," Wakatabe said. "It's really dependent on data."
• Wakatabe served as deputy governor for five years through 2023, during which the BOJ maintained a massive stimulus deployed by former governor Haruhiko Kuroda in 2013. Under incumbent governor Kazuo Ueda, the BOJ exited Kuroda's stimulus last year and raised interest rates to 0.5% in January.

(Source: Reuters)

• The U.S. imposed sanctions on about 100 individuals, entities, and vessels, including a Chinese independent refinery and terminal that helped Iran's oil and petrochemicals trade, the administration of President Donald Trump said on Thursday.
• The Treasury Department sanctioned the Shandong Jincheng Petrochemical Group, which it said is an independent teapot refinery in Shandong Province that has purchased millions of barrels of Iranian oil since 2023. It also sanctioned China-based Rizhao Shihua Crude Oil Terminal, which operates a terminal at Lanshan Port. Treasury said it has accepted more than a dozen of Iran's so-called shadow fleet vessels that evade the sanctions.
• The tankers included Kongm, Big Mag, and Voy, which Treasury said transported several million barrels of Iranian oil to Rizhao. The U.S. believes Iran's oil networks help Tehran fund its nuclear and missile programs and support militant proxies throughout the Middle East. Iran says its nuclear program is for peaceful purposes.
• The sanctions came even as Israel and Hamas signed a Gaza ceasefire and hostage deal, which, if fully implemented, would bring the two sides closer than any previous effort to halt a war that had evolved into a regional conflict, drawing in countries such as Iran, Yemen, and Lebanon.
• Treasury said it was the fourth round of sanctions in which the administration targeted China-based refineries that continue to purchase Iranian oil. Trump, at a Cabinet meeting in the White House after the sanctions were released, said Iran told the administration it was in favour of the Israel-Hamas ceasefire and hostage deal and that the U.S. would work with Tehran.
• Despite waves of U.S. sanctions, Iran continues to export large amounts of oil. United Against a Nuclear Iran, which tracks the country's petroleum shipments, said Iran's oil exports in September set a new high for the year of about 63.2 million barrels, worth about $4.26 billion. UANI said September's growth in sales was likely due to stockpiling ahead of the resumption of U.N. sanctions on Iran.
• The State Department said the U.S. also designated the first China-based terminal, Jiangyin Foreversun Chemical Logistics, for receiving Iranian-origin petrochemical products. The Chinese embassy in Washington and Iran's mission to the United Nations in New York did not immediately respond to requests for comment.

(Sources: Reuters)

• Buoyed by higher revenues and lower direct costs, Express Catering Limited (ECL) saw a 49.7% jump in its earnings for the quarter ended August 2025 (Q1 2026).
• Q1 revenues rose 4.8% YoY (to US$6.79Mn) on the back of a 5.52% increase in the number of passengers accessing the departure lounge of the Sangster International airport – where ECL operates restaurants, bars, and food outlets – to 704,56. This growth was sufficient to compensate for a marginal decline in per customer spend rate from US$9.70 to US$9.64.
• A 10.3% YoY decline in cost of goods sold (COGS) also supported higher profits. Management credited the lower COGS to initiatives to secure medium-term fixed-price contracts for ingredients, which allows the company sufficient time to review selling prices and to effect any necessary changes. It also pointed to increased controls and monitoring of standards in the use of ingredients.
• Meanwhile, overall operating expenses increased marginally (1.0%), reflecting lower wages that were eroded by increases in other costs. Wages and salaries declined by 15.0% following initiatives aimed at improving scheduling. However, this was countered by higher utilities, specifically electricity (+44.0%). Additionally, credit card commissions (+64.0%) also offset lower wages, as the company converted several outlets into a credit card-only payment option to increase controls.
• With a promising start for Q1, the company has a positive outlook for FY2026. Management noted that there was no empirical evidence of any slowdown in the sector [Tourism]. Tourist stopover arrivals have been more diverse in H1 2025, with a surge in LATAM and Asian tourists (+77.2% and +22.8% year-on-year, respectively¹). This helps to offset the decline seen in the US (-1.3%) and Europe (-1.0%) and bolsters the outlook for ECL in FY2025/26.
• ECL’s stock price has declined by 11.9% year-to-date, closing at $2.66 as at Wednesday. At this price, the stock is trading at a P/E ratio of 6.5x, which is below the Junior Market Tourism Sector average of 13.6x.

_________________________

¹Jamaica Tourist Board (JTB)

(Source: NCBCM Research and ECL Financial Statements)