• The Federal Reserve (Fed) held interest rates steady on Wednesday, June 18, 2025, and policymakers signalled borrowing costs are still likely to fall this year but slowed the overall pace of expected future rate cuts in the face of estimated higher inflation flowing from the Trump administration's tariff plans.
• In new economic projections, policymakers sketched a modestly stagflationary picture of the U.S. economy, with economic growth slowing to 1.4% this year, unemployment rising to 4.5% by the end of this year, and inflation finishing 2025 at 3%, well above the current level.
• While policymakers still anticipate cutting rates by half a percentage point this year, as they projected in March 2025 and December 2024, they slightly slowed the pace from there to a single quarter-percentage-point cut in each of 2026 and 2027 in a protracted fight to return inflation to the central bank's 2% target.
• Under the new projections, inflation remains elevated at 2.4% through 2026 before falling to 2.1% in 2027 amid largely stable unemployment. The 1.4% growth in output this year compares to the 1.7% rate seen in the last round of projections in March, and the 4.5% unemployment rate expected at the end of the year is up from the 4.4% projected in March. The rate in May was 4.2%
• So far, however, "the unemployment rate remains low, and labour market conditions remain solid," the Fed said in its policy statement, which was approved unanimously. It did not mention the sudden outbreak of hostilities between Israel and Iran and the risk that conflict posed to global oil or other markets.
• The rate projections from Fed officials for this year, at least, are in line with recent market expectations for a quarter-percentage-point rate reduction as soon as the September meeting. The central bank continues to ignore Trump's call for immediate rate cuts, a move Fed officials feel would be counter to their effort to ensure inflation returns to their 2% target until key tariff changes are finalised and their effects are better understood.

(Source: Reuters)

• Between June 3 to June 16, 2025, a total of 34 new foreign policy measures were announced globally. Of these, 76.5% were restrictive, introducing new barriers to international trade and limiting market access, while the remainder were liberalising measures, designed to ease existing trade barriers.
• These new policy actions reveal several key trends, including greater protection of domestic industries from geopolitical risks, efforts to boost strategic sector competitiveness, and selective liberalisation with eased restrictions in some areas.
• Over the two weeks, 15 markets introduced new foreign policy measures. The United States (U.S.) and the European Union (EU) increased tariffs to shield domestic industrial and consumer sectors from foreign competition. Italy and Canada have provided financial aid to the energy, agriculture, and industrial sectors to boost their competitiveness. In contrast, New Zealand and Mainland China are taking steps to open up certain essential and strategic industries, with New Zealand granting tariff concessions and China issuing export licenses.
• Italy, India, and Russia were also particularly active in imposing new measures. The majority of their actions targeted sectors such as financial services, industrial inputs, and consumer goods. Conversely, Mainland China, the US, Germany, and France are among the markets set to be most affected by new measures, primarily in sectors such as industrial inputs, consumer goods, and pharmaceuticals.
• Key segments such as industrial inputs, consumer goods, and energy were notably impacted by policy measures. These sectors accounted for over 67% of the policies implemented during this period.
• The industrial segment faced mainly restrictive policies, especially in agriculture and precious metals, with Italy and India providing financial support to limit international competition. Australia, however, eased tariffs on rubber, aiding global trade.
• For consumer goods, Russia reduced export duties on grains, boosting international markets, while Turkey implemented price controls that could restrict exports. The energy sector saw only restrictive measures: Canada funded domestic energy firms like Eavor Technologies, strengthening local industry, and Denmark provided trade finance to support clean energy exports to Ukraine.

(Source: Fitch Connect)

• Local pharmaceutical distributor Indies Pharma Jamaica Limited (Indies) reported a 9.2% decline in earnings to $63.77Mn for its second quarter ended April 2025 (Q2 2025). However, aided by a favourable first quarter performance, its earnings grew by 3.2% to $156.61Bn for the six-month period ended April 2025 (6M 2025).
• Gross profits fell 4.4% to $199.38Mn, as a 10.4% decline in revenue to $270.00Mn was mitigated by a 24.0% decline in direct costs to $70.61Mn. While the group benefited from a 2.1% decline in administrative and other expenses to $201.85Bn and a tripling of Foreign Exchange Gains to $1.71Mn, it was insufficient to prevent the reduction in second quarter profits.
• Despite the Q2 dip, the group’s 6M 2025 earnings are still up year to date, on the back of a stronger Q1 2025. Revenue increased by 4.4%, outpacing the 2.3% increase in direct costs. Consequently, gross profits rose 5.3% for 6M 2025. Notably, bottom-line growth was also bolstered by a $6.37Mn (3.8%) decline in Admin and other expenses, which ultimately contributed to the higher profits.
• With 6M earnings still in good health, major developments in its drug development strategy could support future earnings growth. Indies successfully secured a distribution agreement in the United States for its USFDA-approved drug, REGADENOSON². This move is expected to create new revenue streams and significantly expand the company’s international market presence, with commercial sales and distribution targeted by the end of fiscal year 2025. However, success will ultimately depend on how well it navigates potential risks and challenges like the highly competitive U.S. pharmaceutical market, high US distribution and marketing costs, potential drug approval setbacks, and the significant expense of ongoing research and development.
• Indies’ stock price has increased by 2.8% year-to-date, closing at $3.63 as of Tuesday. At this price, the stock is trading at a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 20.74x, which is higher than the Junior Market Health Sector’s average of 18.62x.

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¹ According to Indie’s latest annual report, OOI includes insurance claim, rental income, and gains on the disposal of property, plant and equipment. However, the 6M 2025 report offered no breakout.
²Regadenoson is used to test the heart for coronary artery disease. It is used in patients who cannot exercise for their stress test.

(Source: JSE & NCBCM Research)

• Local Consumer prices for May 2025 were up 0.4% relative to April 2025, and 5.2% relative to May 2024, according to newly released data from the Statistical Institute of Jamaica (STATIN).
• The All-Jamaica Consumer Price Index (CPI), which measures the average change in the prices of goods and services purchased by households for consumption, rose from 141.3 in April 2025 to 141.9 in May 2025 (+0.4%). This upward adjustment was primarily driven by a 1.5% increase in the index of the ‘Housing, Water, Electricity, Gas and Other Fuels’ division¹. Additionally, an increase in prices for meals resulted in the index for ‘Restaurant and Accommodation Services’ rising by 0.9%.
• However, food costs remain relatively flat, with the heavily weighted index for ‘Food and Non-Alcoholic Beverages’ rising only marginally (0.1%). This reflects higher prices for ‘Fish and Other Seafood’ (+1.0%), ‘Cereals and cereal products’ (+0.4%) and ‘Meat and other parts of slaughtered land animals’ (+0.4%) that were offset by declines in the costs for ‘Vegetables, tubers, plantains, cooking bananas and pulses’ and ‘Fruits and nuts’ of 0.4% and 1.6%, respectively.
• With the May outturn point-to-point inflation (P2P) rose 5.2% for May 2025. This is slightly down from the 5.3% P2P inflation in April 2025. The marginally lower P2P inflation outturn in May relative to April is consistent with the Bank of Jamaica’s (BOJ’s) expectations of stable inflation in the near term.
• That said, the risks to the inflation forecast are skewed to the upside. Inflation could inch higher if the effective tariff wall rises higher than projected, resulting in a larger impact on imported inflation and inflation expectations. Higher inflation could also result from further escalation in geopolitical tensions, especially with the escalation of the Israel-Iran conflict, which could negatively impact international supply chains and cause a spike in energy prices.

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¹Influenced primarily by a 4.4% rise in the index of the ‘Electricity, Gas and Other Fuels’ group, which was largely impacted by higher electricity rates.

(Source: STATIN and BOJ, NCBCM Research)

• The Trinidad and Tobago Chamber of Industry and Commerce (TT Chamber) and the St Kitts and Nevis Chamber of Industry and Commerce formalised a significant step forward in regional economic collaboration with the signing of a trade and business development alliance agreement.
• The agreement reinforces the shared commitment of both chambers – proud members of the Caribbean Chambers of Commerce (CARICHAM) network – to deepen co-operation, promote regional integration, and strengthen the voice of the private sector across the Caribbean.
• Through this partnership, the chambers aim to: collaborate on joint initiatives that expand economic and social opportunities for businesses and communities in both TT and St Kitts and Nevis; share research and technical expertise in sectors of mutual interest, such as tourism, financial services, agriculture and renewable energy; undertake collaborative research to assess trade feasibility, develop best practices and promote cultural and commercial exchange between the two countries; facilitate knowledge transfer and capacity-building programmes to strengthen institutional and private sector capabilities.
• It also aims to: build and deepen linkages with government agencies, investment promotion entities and other key trade and development stakeholders; organise and support bilateral trade missions and business delegations that further the objectives of the alliance; advance the UN's sustainable development goals (SDGs) through aligned private sector actions and policies and; identify and address trade barriers, market access constraints and regulatory challenges in a co-operative and solutions-oriented manner.

(Source: Trinidad Express)

• Wall Street indexes ended lower, oil kept climbing, and U.S. borrowing costs fell on Tuesday as U.S. President Donald Trump left the Group of Seven summit early and investors awaited a series of interest rate decisions by major central banks. Trump returned to Washington a day before the summit ends as the Israel-Iran conflict intensified, saying U.S. patience was wearing thin but that he would not kill Iran's leader "for now."
• Yields on 10-year Treasuries fell, indicating stronger demand for a safe haven as investors weigh the conflict as well as prepare to parse Fed Chair Jerome Powell's tone at a scheduled update on Wednesday. Trump's early departure from Canada nixed hopes for more progress on issues like the tariffs he has promised to impose.
• "The market was anxious to hopefully hear updates on trade agreements out of the G7 and the news of Trump leaving early was disappointing, although we all know why," said Eric Sterner, chief investment officer at Apollon Wealth Management.
• "The market is paying attention to the (Middle East) conflict, but it feels that's contained to those two countries," Sterner said. "It does cause concern, especially if Iran does anything with the Strait of Hormuz," he added, noting that around 20% of the world's oil supply passes through that waterway. So far, there has been no noticeable interruption to oil flows, and Qatar said its production at the world's largest gas field was steady after an Israeli air strike led Iran to partially suspend production.
• S. crude continued to surge and settled 4.46% higher at $74.97 a barrel, while Brent rose to $76.54 per barrel, settling up 4.52% on the day. Stocks stayed under pressure, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average extending losses to end 0.70% lower on the day. The S&P 500 (SPX) fell 0.84% and the Nasdaq Composite shed 0.91%.

(Source: Reuters)

• U.S. Senate Republicans on Monday, June 16, 2025, unveiled proposed changes to President Donald Trump's sweeping tax-cut and spending bill that would make some business-related tax breaks permanent while making more limited, the deduction for state and local income taxes, angering some colleagues in the House of Representatives.
• The different versions of the bill in the two narrowly Republican-controlled chambers of Congress could complicate party leaders' goal of passing the bill, which is the centrepiece of Trump's domestic agenda, before a self-imposed July 4 deadline. The new changes ran into early resistance from two separate Senate Republican camps: those who want deeper spending cuts to attack the growing federal deficit and others looking to preserve social safety nets, including the Medicaid healthcare program for lower-income Americans.
• One big change would involve maintaining the current $10,000 cap on federal deductions for state and local income taxes, well below the $40,000 limit in the version approved by the House last month. That drew immediate criticism from House Republicans whose constituents would benefit from the higher deduction. But a committee document shows the amount is subject to continuing negotiations. The Senate Finance Committee proposal would also cap tax breaks on tipped income and overtime pay that Trump promised during the 2024 campaign. The House version would allow deductions on tipped income for those earning up to $160,000 a year.
• The bill would extend the 2017 tax cuts that were Trump's main legislative achievement during his first term in office and would also boost spending for the military and border security. The measure raises the federal government's self-imposed debt ceiling by $5Tn, a step Congress must take by some time this summer or risk a devastating default on the nation's $36.2Tn in debt.
• With a 53-47 Senate majority and a 220-212 edge in the House, Republicans can afford to lose few votes to pass a bill that faces united Democratic opposition.

(Source: Reuters)

• Despite modest top-line growth, for the six months (6M) ended April 30, 2025, The Limners and Bards Limited’s (LAB) recorded a 58.3% decline in earnings driven primarily by higher direct and indirect costs.
• Revenue for the period rose 3.3% year-over-year (YoY) to J$460.12Mn reflecting a 30.4% surge in revenue during Q1, underpinned by strong performances in the Production and Media segments. However, the 6 months outturn was stymied by a 23.0% decline in Q2 due to seasonal factors and the timing of project deliveries.
• The company also saw an increase in direct cost to $284.75Mn, up from $265.19Mn. As a result, with direct costs outpacing the growth in revenues, gross profit for the 6M period fell by 2.7% YoY to J$175.46Mn. The results were also impacted by the fact that a higher proportion of revenue was derived from its Media segment, which typically carries lower margins relative to the company’s Agency segment.
• Operating expenses increased by 10.3% (+J$14.4Mn) to J$153.5Mn, largely due to strategic investment in talent across content creation, business development, and client services. Management emphasised that while these investments have contributed to higher short-term costs, they are considered essential to scaling the company’s operations and building long-term shareholder value.
• Against this background, net profit for the six-month period of $20.6Mn, a 58.3% decline compared to the same period in the prior year.
• Looking forward, The LAB is focused on executing its “Five-in-25” content strategy, geographic expansion of its Agency and Production services, and integration of AI to drive efficiency and cost reduction. The company also plans to continue monetising its intellectual assets and scaling its proprietary content portfolio.
• As at Monday, the stock closed at J$1.10, reflecting a 13.4% decline year-to-date. It currently trades at a P/E ratio of 17.49x, slightly below the Junior Market 'Other' average of 18.6x.

(Sources: NCBCM Research & LAB Financial Statements)

• Main Event Entertainment Group Limited (MEEG) reported a net loss of J$9.34Mn for the second quarter ended March 30, 2025, down from a net profit of J$20.02Mn in the prior year’s comparable period. The decline came against the backdrop of weaker revenue performance.
• Revenues for the quarter totalled J$306.37Mn were down 26.8% or J$112.21Mn year-over-year. Management attributes the weakness to softer demand in key segments such as Entertainment & Promotions and M-Style Décor. The quarter was also affected by lower client marketing budgets, fewer large-scale productions, and the nonrecurrence of several high-value projects that boosted Q2 2024. However, the company noted that new and returning clients helped cushion the revenue decline.
• In line with the drop in revenues, direct expenses also declined by 36.2% to J$140.55Mn, contributing to a rise in operating profit to J$12.72Mn, more than double the J$5.82Mn posted in the previous quarter. Still, the improvement was insufficient to offset overall earnings pressures, resulting in the quarterly net loss.
• Against the background of weaker Q2 results, for the six-month period, revenue declined to J$891.40Mn, down from J$986.33Mn in the same period last year. Gross profit also declined by 9.0% to J$467.49Mn, despite direct expenses falling to $J423.91Mn from $J472.44Mn. However, the gross profit margin improved by 34bps to 52.44% from 52.10%, reflecting tighter project cost controls and enhanced resource planning.
• Overall, for the first half of the year, MEEG’S net profit amounted to $64.329Mn, a decrease of $55.942Mn or 46.5% from the $120.271Mn earned in the comparative period. This downswing was primarily driven by the reduction in revenue and other operating income, which was not fully offset by cost reductions.
• MEEG continues to pursue strategic diversification, with increased focus on developing proprietary, revenue-generating events to cushion against project-based volatility. Management expects these initiatives to support earnings in the latter half of FY2025.
• As at the close of trading on Monday, the stock closed at J$9.97, reflecting a 14.8% year-to-date decline. The Stock currently trades at a P/B of 3.16x, which is below the Junior Market 'Other' average of 2.30x

(Sources: NCBCM Research & MEEG Financial Statements)

• Trinidad and Tobago is expected to run a balance of payments (BOP) deficit in 2025, as money flowing out of the country due to rising import costs and overseas investments outpaces earnings from exports, according to the Central Bank. Consequently, its overall BOP is anticipated to record a deficit in 2025.
• This performance will stem from a surplus on the current account, owing to a healthy goods balance, coupled with a net outflow on the financial account, driven by increased portfolio and other investments. The varying tariffs implemented by the US can also add upward pressure to import prices.
• Over the fourth quarter of 2024, the goods balance decreased by 37.5% (year-on-year) to US$0.42Mn, when compared to the similar quarter of 2023. Despite a minor improvement in exports, it was insufficient to offset the growth in imports. Total export earnings increased by 3.5% to US$2.43Bn in the fourth quarter of 2024.
• The slightly higher outturn stemmed from an improvement in non-energy exports, which expanded by US$0.12Bn or 30.4% (year-on-year) to US$0.50Bn. However, this positive performance was partially offset by a slight decline in energy exports, which fell by 1.7% year-on-year to US$1.93Bn in the fourth quarter of 2024, compared to the same period in 2023. The reduction in energy exports was attributable to a sizeable 35.4% decline in the gas sub-category on account of lower international gas prices and export volumes.
• The country’s total imports increased by US$0.33Bn to US$2.01Bn during the fourth quarter of 2024 as non-fuel imports picked up by US$0.22Bn or 16% (year-on-year) to US$1.60Bn. Notably, this outturn was driven by an increase in imports of manufactured goods and capital imports.

(Source: Trinidad Express)