• The International Monetary Fund (IMF) yesterday predicted that economic growth in Latin America and the Caribbean would slow to 2.2% in 2025 and recover to 2.4% the following year.
• Excluding Guyana, the economies of Caribbean countries are projected to expand by 2.5% in 2025, but prospects vary across countries, with some anticipating a more robust expansion than others. Tourism and construction activity are expected to remain key drivers of growth. However, the region faces challenges, including the impact of natural hazards, with some countries still below pre-pandemic output levels.
• The projection comes as the Washington-based financial institution projected that global growth will be 3.0% this year and 3.1% in 2026. This new forecast for 2025 is an increase of 0.2 percentage points compared to the reference forecast in the April 2025 World Economic Outlook (WEO), while the outlook for 2026 is up by 0.1 percentage points.
• 'Global growth has been revised up to 3% in 2025 and 3.1% in 2026, reflecting stronger-than-expected front loading in international trade, lower tariff rates compared to early April, and easier financial conditions, including a weaker US dollar and fiscal expansion in some jurisdictions. 'Still, projections remain about 0.2 percentage points below our pre-April 2nd forecasts, indicating that the trade tensions are hurting the global economy. Global inflation continues to decline, reaching 4.2% in 2025 and 3.6% in 2026,' said Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas, the IMF's chief economist.

(Source: International Monetary Fund, Caribbean Media Corporation)

• The Caribbean Private Sector Organisation (CPS) has announced that PricewaterhouseCoopers (PwC) has been awarded the consultancy for the study to articulate feasible models to effect a regional stock exchange among participating states of the Caricom Single Market and Economy (CSME).
• The CPSO-PSC comprises representatives from regional stock exchanges, dealer-brokers, listed companies, Central Bank governors, the Caricom Secretariat, regulators, and representatives from CPSO’s executive committee and secretariat. The CPSO-PSC would maintain overall management and coordination responsibility of the consultancy.
• The study is expected to focus on exploring models for a regional intermediatory mechanism for securities trading, incorporating key market institutions such as securities exchanges, securities regulators, broker-dealers, and issuers, that will achieve or approximate the essential features of an integrated capital market across CARICOM member states.
• A key objective would be to identify a feasible framework that is both operationally efficient and minimally burdensome (financially or administratively) to participating institutions, while ensuring adequate regulatory oversight to safeguard investors.
• The study will be undertaken in two phases. Phase 1: Establishing the feasibility of a regional stock exchange, and Phase 2: Identifying the appropriate model and outline of the fit-for-purpose architecture.
• This study is expected to lay the groundwork for a more integrated and accessible capital market ecosystem within the region, which presents opportunities for greater investment options and opportunities for capital raising for people of Caricom, businesses, and regional economies
• The benefits of a securities exchange integration include optimal capital mobilisation to support development, diversified risk, more efficient and competitive financial markets, lower financing costs, higher returns, and the overall increase in cross-border flow of capital.

(Source: Trinidad & Tobago Guardian)

• The U.S. central bank held interest rates steady on Wednesday, and Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell's comments after the decision undercut confidence that borrowing costs would begin to fall in September, possibly stoking the ire of President Donald Trump, who has demanded immediate and steep rate relief.
• Powell said the Fed is focused on controlling inflation - not on government borrowing or home mortgage costs that Trump wants lowered - and added that the risk of rising price pressures from the administration's trade and other policies remains too high for the central bank to begin loosening its grip until more information is collected.
• While there will be two full months of data before the Fed's September 16-17 meeting, Powell said the Fed was still in the early stages of understanding how Trump's rewrite of import taxes and other policy changes will unfold in terms of inflation, jobs and economic growth.
• The latest policy decision was made after a 9-2 vote by the rate-setting Federal Open Market Committee, which passes for a split outcome at the consensus-driven central bank, with two Fed governors dissenting for the first time in more than 30 years.
• Along with Powell's comments, the Fed's new policy statement also gave little hint that rates were likely to fall soon. "The unemployment rate remains low, and labour market conditions remain solid. Inflation remains somewhat elevated," the central bank said after voting to keep the benchmark overnight interest rate steady in the 4.25%-4.50% range for the fifth consecutive meeting.
• The statement noted that economic growth "moderated in the first half of the year," possibly bolstering the case to lower rates at a future meeting should that trend continue. But it also said "uncertainty about the economic outlook remains elevated," with risks to both the Fed's inflation and employment goals, language that has anchored its reluctance to cut rates until the path of inflation and jobs becomes clearer.
• Powell was careful to keep his options open on monetary policy. "We have made no decisions about September" and have time to take in a wide range of data before the central bank next meets in mid-September, he said. Powell noted that current monetary policy is appropriately set at "modestly restrictive" levels, as some risks to the outlook have risen.

(Source: Reuters)

• The U.S. economy grew at a much stronger-than-expected pace in the second quarter, powered by a turnaround in the trade balance and renewed consumer strength, the Commerce Department reported Wednesday.
• Gross domestic product, a sum of goods and services activity across the sprawling U.S. economy, jumped 3.0% for the April through June period, according to figures adjusted for seasonality and inflation.
• That topped the Dow Jones estimate for 2.3% and helped reverse a decline of 0.5% for the first quarter that came largely due to a huge drop in imports, which subtract from the total, as well as weak consumer spending amid tariff concerns.
• “Consumer spending rose 1.4% in the second quarter, better than the 0.5% in the prior period. While exports declined 1.8% during the period, imports fell 30.3%, reversing a 37.9% surge in Q1. The GDP tally showed strength across key areas of the economy, as well as evidence that inflation is ebbing though not eradicated.
• The personal consumption expenditures price index, the Federal Reserve’s key inflation metric, showed a gain of 2.1% for the quarter, just above the central bank’s 2% target. Core PCE inflation, which the Fed considers a better gauge for longer-run trends as it excludes volatile food and energy prices, increased 2.5%. The respective numbers for the first quarter were 3.7% and 3.5%.

(Source: CNBC)

• Jetcon Corporation Limited (JETCON) reported earnings of J$33.15Mn for the second quarter ended June 30, 2025 (Q2 2025), a turnaround from the net loss of J$6.12Mn in Q2 2024. The increase came against the backdrop of stronger revenue performance.
• Revenues for the quarter more than doubled to J$277.36Mn, (106.4% or J$117.23Mn year-over-year). The company noted that it continues to reap the benefits of exiting the used car market and focusing purely on New Cars and Solar. It has also benefited from increased demand due to heightened brand awareness after showcasing four vehicle models at the Jamaica Auto Show in May.
• Jetcon, which pivoted from selling used cars to focusing on new vehicles, now offers a range of BAIC models, including the Beijing X55, which is a compact SUV competing directly with similar makes such as the Toyota Rav4 and Honda CR-V. It also sells the BJ40, which is a rugged off-road SUV. Smaller, budget-friendly options, such as the X35 and BJ35, are also among the line-up of vehicles.
• In line with the increase in revenues, direct expenses also rose by 74.3% to J$162.17Mn; however, with revenue growth outpacing direct expenses, gross profits increased 3-fold to J$65.19Mn, and its gross margin doubled from 14.6% to 28.7%. This allowed JETCON to reverse an operating loss of J$6.12Mn to an operating profit of J$33.15Mn, despite a 46.7% increase in operating expenses. Consequently, operating margin moved from -5.6% to 14.6%.
• Jetcon’s Q2 results, coupled with solid performance in Q1 2025, contributed to its strong performance for the six-month period (6M 2025). 6M 2025 revenue rose to J$423.75Mn, up from J$246.57Mn for 6M 2024. Gross profit also increased by 153.9% to J$101.99Mn, despite direct expenses increasing by 55.9% to $J321.76Mn and the gross profit margin improved by 778bps to 24.1%. Overall, for the first half of the year, Jetcon’s net profit amounted to $41.85Mn, an increase from a net loss of J$7.00Mn in the comparative period.
• As at the close of trading on Tuesday, Jetcon shares closed at J$2.04, reflecting a 92.3% year-to-date increase. At this price, the shares trade at a P/E of 47.44x, which is above the Junior Market Distribution Sector Average of 32.48x.

(Sources: NCBCM Research & JETCON Financial Statements)

• On July 28, 2025, the Board of Key Insurance Limited announced that it had been informed by GraceKennedy Financial Group Limited (GKFG) that its takeover offer to shareholders had concluded as scheduled on July 11, 2025.
• The offer was widely accepted, with a substantial portion of minority shareholders tendering their ordinary shares. Following the transfer of these shares to GKFG, the company's ownership stake in Key Insurance will increase to 98.9%.
• GKFG has also indicated that the Company’s Registrar is actively collaborating with the Jamaica Stock Exchange (JSE) and the Lead Broker to facilitate the transfer of shares to GKFG and to ensure the timely settlement of payments to accepting shareholders.
• All proceedings are being carried out under the terms of the offer and the rules governing the JSE.

(Source: JSE)

• The Bahamian economy grew moderately in the first half of 2025, slowing from 2024 due to softer stopover tourism and a nearly two percent decline in external reserves. However, the Central Bank is forecasting stronger tourism receipts later this year, driven by higher hotel rates and increased forward bookings despite steady occupancy.
• During the Central Bank’s quarterly press briefing, Governor John Rolle acknowledged the challenges facing the tourism sector and the broader economy. Some of the key challenges include U.S. travel advisories against travel and the tourism sector’s vulnerability to natural disasters, both of which pose significant risks to the broader Bahamian economy, given tourism’s central role as a primary economic driver.
• Governor Rolle further noted that data from the Central Bank shows that while stopover arrivals dipped slightly, average room rates rose, helping to offset the decline. The vacation rental segment experienced nearly a 10% rise in room sales, supporting overall tourism receipts. Meanwhile, cruise visitor numbers continued to grow steadily, providing additional revenue.
• The softer tourism growth early this year contributed to a 2.0% drop in external reserves by late July compared to the same period in 2024, reflecting the more tempered inflow of foreign currency. Commercial banks’ purchases of foreign currency from the private sector, which correlate with tourism, investments, and other activities, rose only 1.3% in the first half of 2025, down from 2.2% in the same period last year.
• Governor Rolle also noted that credit growth remained firm, with domestic banks increasing lending across consumer loans, mortgages, and commercial activities. Credit risk improved, with non-performing loans dropping from nearly 6 percent in 2024 to about 5 percent by mid-2025.
• Looking ahead, Governor Rolle conveyed cautious optimism, noting that analyses of online travel platforms, forward bookings, and pricing data indicate stronger hotel sector revenues for the remainder of 2025 compared to the latter half of 2024. This projected improvement is attributed to higher average room rates, although no corresponding increase in occupancy is currently anticipated.

(Source: Eyewitness News

• Mexico's economy likely slightly picked up steam in the second quarter, buoyed by growth in the manufacturing and service sectors that offset weakness in agricultural activity. Gross domestic product likely expanded 0.4% in the second quarter from the previous quarter in seasonally adjusted terms, according to the median forecast of 13 analysts.
• The forecast compares with 0.2% growth in the January-March period, when Latin America's second-largest economy narrowly avoided a feared technical recession. "The improvement of industrial activity, particularly in construction, and the resilience of services likely offset weak agricultural output and underpinned second-quarter growth," said Pantheon Macroeconomics.In unadjusted terms, however, the economy was seen as having expanded by 0.2% compared with the same period a year earlier, the slowest pace of growth since early 2021.
• Looking ahead, the outlook points to a challenging second half of the year, mainly due to persistent uncertainty surrounding the trade policies of the United States, Mexico's top trading partner.
• The International Monetary Fund on Tuesday updated its outlook for Mexico, forecasting the economy will grow 0.2% this year. Although that is an improvement over the 0.3% contraction expected in the IMF's April report, it would still mark the economy's worst performance since the pandemic.
• Mexico’s national statistics agency, the National Institute of Statistics and Geography of Mexico (INEGI), is scheduled to release the preliminary second-quarter GDP data on Wednesday.

(Source: Reuters)

• The International Monetary Fund raised its outlook for economic growth across emerging market and developing economies this year to 4.1% from 3.7%, driven by frontloading and a more upbeat view on China. In an update published on Tuesday to its flagship World Economic Outlook report, the IMF also nudged its 2026 economic growth forecast for emerging economies up to 4.0% from 3.9%.
• China received the largest upgrade with the IMF predicting the world's number two economy would expand 4.8% this year compared with a previous forecast for 4.0%. "This revision reflects stronger-than-expected activity in the first half of 2025 and the significant reduction in U.S.–China tariffs," the IMF said, adding that the latest forecasts assumed the U.S. effective tariff rate at 17.3% rather than the 24.4%, which formed the basis of its calculations in April.
• The IMF also noted that for all countries, "pauses on higher tariffs are assumed to remain in place past their expiration dates and higher rates are assumed not to take effect". Risks for the outlook are tilted downward, the IMF said, given the "precarious equilibrium of trade policy stances assumed in the baseline."
• The upgrade for emerging markets reflects a more optimistic outlook globally by the IMF, which nudged global GDP growth forecast up to 3.0% for 2025 and to 3.1% in 2026. However, those levels still mark a downgrade on the Fund's projections made in January.

(Source: Reuters)

• The U.S. trade deficit in goods narrowed to the lowest level in nearly two years in June as imports fell sharply, cementing economists' expectations that trade likely accounted for much of an anticipated rebound in economic growth in the second quarter.
• While the unexpected contraction reported by the Commerce Department on Tuesday prompted economists to upgrade their gross domestic product estimates for the last quarter, the steep decline in imports flagged slowing domestic demand against the backdrop of a softening labour market.
• That was reinforced by other data showing a decrease in job openings and hiring in June, as well as deterioration in consumers' perceptions of current employment availability. The reports dovetailed with the high number of people receiving unemployment checks.
• Economists say trade policy uncertainty, especially as to where President Donald Trump's tariff levels will eventually settle, has created an environment that is not conducive for businesses to make long-term plans. Imports surged in the first quarter as businesses rushed to beat higher prices ahead of the duties, contributing to the first decline in GDP in three years.
• The Trump administration has announced several trade deals, which economists said could help to ease the uncertainty. "The data suggest the second-quarter GDP report will have a solid headline, but weak details," said Bill Adams, chief economist at Comerica Bank. "The economy was on uneven, wobbly footing in the second quarter."
• The government is scheduled to publish its advance estimate of second-quarter GDP on Wednesday. A Reuters survey of economists, conducted before the release of the trade data, forecast that GDP rebounded at a 2.4% rate in the April-June period after contracting at a 0.5% pace in the first three months of this year.

S(Source: Reuters)