• Slowing economic growth mixed with a bout of renewed inflation risks moving the U.S. from a global overachiever to a drag on the rest of the world as foreign central banks and others confront the spillovers from President Donald Trump's fast-moving effort to rewire international trade.
• With analysts in the U.S. noting the stagflationary direction of the U.S. outlook - weaker output and higher prices - central banks globally are parsing what the fallout may mean for them.
• When the Bank of England held its policy rate steady on Thursday it pointed specifically to Trump's tariff moves as clouding the global outlook. Similar warnings came from the Bank of Japan, which held its policy rate steady and signalled future moves could be shaped by how Trump's plan to blanket the world with new tariffs plays out in practice.
• European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde said on Thursday that U.S. tariff measures and likely European Union retaliation would be a blow to growth and tack perhaps half a percentage point onto inflation in the short-run at least. Swiss National Bank governing board member Petra Tschudin said as the SNB cut its policy rate that "developments abroad continue to represent the main risk" in an economic climate that "has become considerably more uncertain."
• Economists see a likely recession in Canada and Mexico, which depend mightily on exports to the U.S. and have been particularly targeted by Trump, while shifts in global currency and capital flows and U.S. foreign spending are already creating sets of winners and losers.
• Trump has said he will follow through next month on twice-delayed plans to impose 25% levies on goods from Mexico and Canada despite a regional trade agreement negotiated in his first term and announce a tariff "number" for other countries based on taxes they impose on U.S. goods.

(Source: Reuters)

• The Bank of England looks set to keep interest rates on hold on Thursday as it awaits the impact on the economy of U.S. President Donald Trump's trade tariff onslaught and of the British government's imminent tax hike for employers.
• With UK inflation stuck firmly above its 2.0% target, the BoE has cut borrowing costs by less than the European Central Bank and the U.S. Federal Reserve since last summer, contributing to the country's sluggish growth rate.
• When it trimmed its benchmark Bank Rate to 4.5% in February, the BoE stressed it would move gradually and carefully with further cuts given the uncertainties hanging over the economy.
• Since then, those uncertainties have only mounted in large part due to Trump gearing up to announce import tariffs for a host of trading partners of the United States on April 2, muddying the outlook for growth and inflation around the world.
• Also on the Monetary Policy Committee's radar is finance minister Rachel Reeves' budget update speech next Wednesday in which she is expected to announce cuts to public spending plans, a big component of Britain's economic growth outlook.
• Last month the BoE said it expected inflation to reach 3.7% later this year, up from January's 3%. Some economists say it will hit 4%, testing the BoE's assumption that there is little threat to longer-term price pressures through wage demands.

(Source: Reuters)

• Junior market production and media company Limners and Bards Limited (The Lab) reported a 17.6% profit decline for its first quarter of the 2025 Financial Year (Q1 2025) as higher expenses outshone revenue growth.
• Revenues grew by 30.4% to 286.13Mn, driven by contributions from its core segments: Media ($142.50Mn), Production ($101.00Mn), and Agency ($42.60Mn). However, the bulk of the revenue growth came from its lower-margin Production and media segment.
• Direct expenses outpaced revenue growth, rising 42.3% to $185.58Mn. This led to a 13.0% increase in gross profits – albeit at a lower gross margin of 35.1% relative to 40.6% in Q1 2024.
• Total operating expenses also increased by 12.9% to $78.74Mn, driven by selling and distribution costs (S&D: +11.1%) to 76.94Mn. The increase in S&D was influenced by higher staff costs (+9.2%) following strategic investments in talent – including a Chief Business Development Officer – and enhanced client service support to drive new business acquisitions and strengthen the execution of key initiatives. 
• The faster expense growth as well as a non-recurrence of impairment recoveries on financial assets totalling $6.02Mn in Q1 2024, resulted in a 9.8% decline in operating profits to $23.24Mn, with the operating margin falling from 11.7% to 8.1%. 
• While the Lab benefited from a four-fold increase in finance income to $1.96Mn, taxation expenses further pulled net profits down. Having listed in July 26, 2019, the company spent more than 5 years on the Junior Market, meaning its tax rate increased from 0% to 12.5%, effective July 31, 2024.
• This recent result reflects a broader earnings decline for the company with annual profits of $82.95Mn in FY2024, well below its $155.55Mn peak in FY21. To address the decline, The LAB is working to strengthen its position in the global content market by expanding its client base, securing industry recognition, and aligning its content strategy with the growing demand for diverse, high-quality storytelling, especially on major streaming platforms like Netflix.
• At market close on March 19, 2025, The Lab’s stock is down 5.5% year-to-date and trading at $1.20 per share. Its P/E of 14.10x is below the Junior Market Average of 35.97x.

(Source: JSE & NCBCM Research)

• Jamaica is making strides in meeting its target of generating 50% of its electricity from renewable sources by 2030. Minister of Science, Energy, Telecommunications and Transport, Hon. Daryl Vaz, highlighted the progress being made during a press conference at the Ministry’s office in Kingston on Tuesday, March 18, 2025.
• In October 2018, the Government stated its intention to have 50% or approximately 520 megawatts (MW) of renewable energy in the local energy mix by 2030. This is an increase from the previously declared 30 per cent target, which was announced in April 2017.
• To pursue the renewable energy target, the Government implemented legislation, enabling Jamaica Public Service (JPS) customers with renewable energy generators to sell excess capacity to JPS at wholesale prices. “The Electricity (Net Billing) Regulations, 2022 accelerated distributed renewable energy adoption, with 436 new renewable systems licensed, adding 8.5MW of new capacity,” Minister Vaz noted.
• He further cited the expansion of utility-scale renewable projects that are expected to come on stream soon, further bolstering the renewable energy push. “In November 2024, the Generation Procurement Entity (GPE) awarded 99.83MW of new solar capacity contract to Wigton Energy Limited and Sunterra Energy Jamaica Ltd., supporting the 50% renewable energy target by 2030. Both bidders have obtained their generation licences from the Ministry, and their implementation schedule completion is expected by 2027,” he informed. An additional 220MW of utility-scale renewables with storage will be competitively procured in 2025.
• These projects, along with the JPS’s replacement of 171.5MW of retiring fossil fuel units with renewables, will bring renewables electricity generation close to 48% when the projects are connected to the grid, Minister Vaz said.
• The country’s renewable energy capacity stood at 188 megawatts by December 2024, generating an estimated 481,432MW hours annually, accounting for 10% of the nation’s total electricity production. This is up from 2016 when renewable energy capacity represented seven per cent of total grid generation.
• Furthermore, in 2024, Jamaica moved up eight places in the Bloomberg NEA Climate Scope Report, ranking 10th in Latin America and the Caribbean for renewable energy investment attractiveness.
• Jamaica’s transition to adopting 50% renewables is being guided by the updated Integrated Resource Plan (IRP-2), which was approved by the Cabinet and published in 2024. The Plan prioritises wind, hydro and solar as primary energy sources, and battery energy storage systems (BESS) for grid stability, reliability and efficiency.

(Source: JIS)

• Real GDP growth in the Bahamas is expected to slow from an estimated 1.9% in 2024 to 1.7% in 2025 according to Fitch Solutions, with tourism sector and private consumption expected to be the primary drivers of the expansion. However, high government debt load necessitating fiscal consolidation, as well as solid consumer spending boosting import growth will prevent a faster pace of growth.
• Further, economic growth will hold steady at 1.7% in 2026, as capacity constraints in the tourism sector prevent the sector from more meaningfully driving faster headline real GDP growth.
• The robust tourism sector and steady improvements in living conditions will reduce the risk of social unrest in the Bahamas in 2025, as well as support the position of the incumbent Progressive Liberal Party.
• Aided by its large majority in parliament, the Progressive Liberal Party will be in a strong position to pass bills, implying limited governance risks as well as a good chance of winning the next election, due by September 2026.
• Nevertheless, significant risks remain. Most notably, the government will make limited progress in stamping out corruption and reducing very high levels of violent crime, implying security risks will remain highly elevated in the months ahead.
• Furthermore, the Bahamas remains sensitive to global geopolitical events, both given its reliance on external demand and its sensitivity to any unexpected rise in global commodity prices. An unexpected geopolitical shock could have the ability to push up inflation once again in the Bahamas, denting its economic performance.

(Source: Fitch Connect)

• Guyana President Irfaan Ali is exploring a partnership with Suriname to build a gas-powered industrial hub as he works to fortify his nation’s economy, which was rapidly transformed by oil fortunes in the past decade.
• The nation is seeking a partnership with Suriname for a prospective hub on the north coast of South America that would use natural gas from the countries’ offshore fields, he said in an interview. Ali said he aims “to build regional prosperity” by producing power, fertilizer and aluminium in the Berbice region in eastern Guyana. He spoke on the sidelines of the CERAWeek by S&P Global conference in Houston.
• Exxon Mobil Corp.’s oil discovery in 2015 has transformed Guyana’s economic fortunes, filling the government’s coffers with billions of dollars from oil exports. But it’s also left the nation’s outlook extremely intertwined with the whims of the crude market at a time when an expectant population is looking for a rapid uplift in living standards.
• Ali, who is up for re-election this year, wants to build “resilience” by investing heavily in non-oil sectors, such as agriculture, infrastructure, education and healthcare, he said. The hub would be critical for “energy and food security,” he said as the region seeks to grow its economy.
• “We’re hoping also to discuss with Suriname the integration of their gas into that facility,” Ali said. “That facility would be able to serve both Guyana and Suriname and create the economic spin-off and opportunities for both countries.”

(Source: Rigzone)

• Faced with pressing concerns over the impact tariffs will have on a slowing economy, the rate-setting Federal Open Market Committee kept its key borrowing rate targeted in a range between 4.25%-4.5%, where it has been since December. Markets had been pricing in virtually zero chance of a move at this week’s two-day policy meeting.
• Along with the decision, officials updated their rate and economic projections for this year and through 2027 and altered the pace at which they are reducing bond holdings.
• Despite the uncertain impact of President Donald Trump’s tariffs as well as an ambitious fiscal policy of tax breaks and deregulation, officials said they still see another half percentage point of rate cuts through 2025. The Fed prefers to move in quarter percentage point increments, so that would mean two reductions this year. However, in a news conference, Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell said the central bank would be comfortable keeping interest rates elevated if conditions warranted it.
• In its post-meeting statement, the FOMC noted an elevated level of ambiguity surrounding the current climate.
• Powell noted that there had been a “moderation in consumer spending” and anticipates that tariffs could put upward pressure on prices. These trends may have contributed to the committee’s more cautious economic outlook.
• The group downgraded its collective outlook for economic growth and gave a bump higher to its inflation projection. Officials now see the economy accelerating at just a 1.7% pace this year, down 0.4 percentage point from the last projection in December. On inflation, core prices are expected to grow at a 2.8% annual pace, up 0.3 percentage points from the previous estimate.          

(Source: CNBC)

• Japan's government stuck with its cautiously optimistic outlook for the economy; however, U.S. President Donald Trump's trade policies could dampen global growth and higher inflation could hurt consumer spending.
• The government maintained its view on the world's fourth-largest economy, saying it is "recovering moderately" in its monthly report for March, citing strong corporate earnings and wage increases which policymakers hope will boost consumption.
• "There are U.S. trade policies which could have direct and indirect impact on Japan, so we highlighted them as risks to the economy," said an official at the Cabinet Office.
• Referring to Japan's potential trade exposure, the Cabinet Office report said intermediate goods exports including electronic devices account for 60.0% of Japan's goods exports to China. The ratio of intermediate goods such as auto parts in the nation's goods exports to Mexico accounts for 60%, while those to Canada account for nearly 50%, the report said.
• Still, the government retained its assessment on exports, saying they picked up recently for March as Japan's shipments to Asia were on the rise. Higher prices were also risks to the economy as Japan's nationwide overall consumer price index rose 4.0% in January, the highest in two years, boosted by fresh food prices.

(Source: Reuters)

• Approximately 3,000 micro, small and medium-sized enterprises (MSMEs) are poised to benefit from a share of some €9.5Mn in grant-funding support from the European Union (EU). The funds are being provided under the EU’s Digital Transitioning Programme in Jamaica, which was launched in 2023 and aims to increase information and communications technology (ICT) access and use by MSMEs islandwide. This is in keeping with the Government’s ongoing thrust to transition the country to a digital economy.
• Speaking during the official opening of the Jamaica Business Development Corporation (JBDC) Manchester Business Centre in Mandeville recently, Minister of Industry, Investment and Commerce, Senator the Hon. Aubyn Hill, said approximately €1.7Mn of the EU grant is earmarked for the JBDC. He indicated that the provision will fund further digital technology buildout for a targeted 2,700 MSMEs while emphasising the importance of this undertaking and the dividends to be derived.
• Senator Hill noted that the growth recorded by several of Jamaica’s major corporations and enterprises was largely driven by their embracement of technology and encouraged MSMEs to do likewise. He also reminded entrepreneurs that they were operating in an era where digital adoption is an absolute imperative, hence the decision to incorporate agencies such as the JBDC to lend support in driving this thrust.
• Meanwhile, Programme Manager, EU Delegation to Jamaica, Turks & Caicos, The Bahamas, Belize and the Cayman Islands, Marlene Lamonth, said the partnership with Jamaica is a testament to the shared commitment to fostering economic resilience, innovation and inclusive growth for the citizens. “The European Union’s decision to support Jamaica in this journey comes from the recognition of the vital role that MSMEs play in the economy. According to the PIOJ, MSMEs account for 80 per cent of employment in Jamaica, showing that you are the engine of economic growth and the lifeblood of the communities across the country,” Ms Lamonth said.

(Source: JIS)

• On March 17, 2025, GraceKennedy Financial Group Limited (GK) issued an offer to purchase 100% of the issued share capital of Key Insurance Company Limited for J$2.70 per share. The offer is set to open for acceptance on March 24, 2025, and will close on April 22, 2025.
• The acquisition is expected to cost J$403,707,601.80. The company plans to fund the acquisition from internally generated resources of the GraceKennedy Group.
• Key Insurance Company Limited operates as a general insurance company in Jamaica in the Motor and Non-Motor segments. The acquisition would allow for greater reach and market presence for GK, whilst reducing competition in its insurance segment.
• Key Insurance is currently listed on the JSE’s Main Market. Under the Main Market Rules, a company can be delisted if a single shareholder, directly or indirectly, controls more than 80% of a company’s listed shares. GK currently owns approximately 73% of Key's issued shares. As such, if upon completion of the Offer, its ownership stake exceeds the 80% threshold, the delisting would take effect after the bid is finished.
• Additionally, if enough of Key's Shareholders – excluding GK – accept the offer and bring GK’s ownership to at least 90% of the Key’s issued ordinary stock units, GK intends to exercise its rights to compulsorily acquire all remaining shares, regardless of whether the owners have expressly disagreed with or failed to respond to the Offer.
• Since the news release, KEY’s stock price has appreciated by 15.3% to close Tuesday’s trading session at $2.49, leaving an additional upside of 12.5% to the offer price.

(Source: JSE & NCBCM Research)