• The first crude cargo from Guyana's fourth oil production facility, which arrived in the country in April and is being installed, is set to be exported between late August and early September, the government said on Tuesday, June 10, 2025.
• A consortium of U.S. companies, namely, Exxon Mobil, Hess and China's CNOOC, controls all crude and gas output in Guyana. Each party individually exports its share of production, and the government is also entitled to a share of oil profits.
• The floating facility, built by SBM Offshore, named One Guyana, is expected to begin producing in the coming months, expanding the consortium's output capacity to more than 900,000 barrels per day (bpd), the companies have said. One Guyana will produce crude and associated gas at the Exxon group's Yellowtail and Redtail offshore fields.
• The first load of Guyana's new crude grade, called "Golden Arrowhead," will be of 1 million barrels, according to three trading sources with knowledge of the offer. The oil is expected to be the country's lightest with 36.5 API^[1] degrees of density and 0.25% of sulphur content, according to an assay seen by Reuters, making it easier to refine by non-complex facilities.
• Since beginning crude exporting in early 2020, the burgeoning oil nation has emerged as the fifth largest Latin American crude exporter after Brazil, Mexico, Venezuela and Colombia. Guyana's oil exports rose 54% in 2024 to some 582,000 bpd, fueled by European refiners' demand for easy-to-process sweet crudes, according to shipping data. Furthermore, the output capacity in the country is expected to reach 1.7 million bpd by 2030.

(Source: Reuters)

^[1] The API (American Petroleum Institute) gravity, a measure of how heavy or light the petroleum is compared to water. 36.5 API degrees suggests the oil is relatively light, which is generally desirable because lighter oils are easier to refine into fuels like gasoline and kerosene. Further, Sulfur content affects the quality and environmental impact of the fuel; lower sulfur levels are preferred to reduce emissions and meet environmental regulations. 0.25% sulfur is considered low, making the oil cleaner-burning compared to higher sulfur crude oils.

• British Finance Minister Rachel Reeves announced on Wednesday, June 11, 2025, a focus on increased spending in health, defence, and infrastructure projects. The initiative aims to stimulate economic growth and revitalise the Labour government's promise of a brighter future to an increasingly disillusioned electorate.
• Keen to promote increased investments in housing, transport and cleaner energy projects, Reeves aimed to demonstrate that the Labour government was delivering on its plan for change. However, with more money going to health and defence, day-to-day spending in other areas of government will face budget constraints. Importantly, Reeves set the overall total for spending in an October budget, financing her plan with the biggest tax rise in a generation, and looser fiscal rules making it easier for her to borrow for long-term investments.
• Nonetheless, her choices must start paying off quickly if Labour is to achieve its goals of boosting Britain's growth rate and improving the quality of overstretched public services. She said the government's departmental budgets would grow by 2.3% a year in real terms, offering a further £190Bn (US$257Bn) for day-to-day spending on public services compared with the previous Conservative government's plans.
• Total spending over the period will exceed £2Tn, though much of the money has been front-loaded. Reeves' 2.3% figure refers to average annual spending growth since 2023-24, while after 2025-26 - the period covered by the spending review - real-terms growth slows to 1.5%.
• Departments with above-average spending settlements include defence, where spending will rise 3.6% a year in real terms if 2023-24 is used as the baseline, and the health service, which accounts for nearly 40% of day-to-day government spending and got a 2.8% rise. Most areas of government will see at least some real-terms increase, including a 2.3% annual rise in policing resources.
• However, Britain's foreign ministry will see a 5% annual fall, reflecting an earlier decision to curb foreign aid funding, and interior ministry functions, excluding policing, will see a 4.5% annual cut, which the government hopes to fund in part through a cheaper system for handling asylum seekers. Furthermore, all government departments will be expected to deliver at least 5% efficiency savings, including at least a 15% reduction in administrative costs.

(Source: Reuters)

• U.S. consumer prices increased less than expected in May as cheaper gasoline partially offset higher rents, but inflation is expected to accelerate in the coming months on the back of the Trump administration's import tariffs.
• The Consumer Price Index (CPI) increased 0.1% last month after rising 0.2% in April, the Labour Department's Bureau of Labour Statistics (BLS) reported on June 11, 2025. The monthly increase was slightly below economists' expectations, as those surveyed by Reuters and Dow Jones had predicted a 0.2% rise in the CPI. In the 12 months through May, annual CPI advanced 2.4% after gaining 2.3% in April.
• A 0.3% increase in the cost of shelter, mostly rents, was the main driver for the rise in the CPI. The ongoing decline in energy prices also helped offset some of the increases. Furthermore, several other important items, namely vehicles and apparel prices, expected to show tariff-related jumps, posted declines.
• Excluding food and energy, the core CPI came in respectively at 0.1% and 2.8%, compared with forecasts for 0.3% and 2.9%. Officials consider core a better measure of long-term trends, with several expressing concerns recently over the impact that tariffs would have on inflation.
• The Federal Reserve (Fed), however, tracks different inflation gauges, including the core Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index, for its 2% target. Economists estimated core PCE inflation rose 0.2% in May after edging up 0.1% in April. That would raise the annual increase in core inflation to 2.6% from 2.5% in April.
• In addition to pre-tariff inventory levels, economists suggest that the uncertain demand environment likely caused some businesses to hesitate before raising prices. They anticipate that inflation will accelerate from June onward and continue into the second half of the year, with companies likely increasing prices gradually to prevent sudden price shocks for consumers and to avoid drawing the White House's scrutiny.

(Sources: Reuters & CNBC)

• Medical Disposables & Supplies Limited (MDS) reported a net loss of $201.83Mn for the twelve-month period ended March 2025, marking the second consecutive year of losses. The sustained underperformance was largely driven by elevated operating expenses, which continued to constrain the company’s ability to convert revenue growth into profitability.
• During the financial year, revenue grew modestly by 4.7% to $3.88Bn, up from $3.71Bn in the previous year. Stronger performance in the second half of the year, underpinned by improved sell-through across the pharmaceutical, medical, and consumer divisions, accounted for the growth in MDS’ topline.
• Cost of sales rose slightly by 0.4%, increasing at a much slower pace than revenue. This reflected the absence of a large inventory write-down seen in the prior year, which had stemmed from slow-moving and near-dated stock. Consequently, gross profit improved by 22.8%. However, when adjusted for non-recurring effects, gross profit from core operations actually declined, primarily due to temporary sales disruptions at a subsidiary undergoing rationalisation, including changes in supplier relationships.
• Operating expenses surged by $138.92Mn (15.62%), largely due to a one-off provision totaling $144Mn within Cornwall Enterprises, a subsidiary. This included $18Mn for slow-moving inventory and $126Mn for related-party balances. This was the primary driver of the weaker earnings.
• Other contributors to the rise in costs included: Emergency repair expenses and hurricane preparedness measures (Hurricane Beryl), higher insurance premiums, costs related to new business acquisitions, increased staff turnover and strategic investments in sales and merchandising staff to drive distribution growth. That said, these increases were partially offset by improved cost discipline in marketing and promotional spending.
• Looking ahead, MDS has begun diversifying its product mix and expanding regionally. The company has entered the fast-moving consumer goods (FMCG) space by becoming a non-exclusive distributor of True Pet Food in Jamaica. It is also establishing MDS Cayman, a new subsidiary aimed at distributing pharmaceutical and medical supplies across the Cayman Islands and the broader Caribbean, signaling a push toward new markets and revenue streams.
• Despite the softer earnings, MDS’s stock price has declined by 18.2% year-to-date, closing at $1.35 as at Tuesday. At this price, the stock is trading at a price-to-book (P/B) ratio of 0.59x, which is lower than the Junior Market Health Sector’s average of 1.94x.

(Sources: JSE & NCBCM Research)

• Dolla Financial Services Limited (DOLLA) announced that it received notice of Widebase Limited (Widebase) acquiring an additional 7.00% stake in the company, increasing its total ownership to 21.00%.
• The completion of this transaction is subject to regulatory approval from the Bank of Jamaica, the governing authority for micro-credit institutions, for Widebase to own 20.0% or more of Dolla.
• As at March 2025, only Dequity Capital Management Limited (20.0%), FirstRock Private Equity Limited (16.0%), Supreme Ventures Limited (15.0%), and Mayberry Jamaican Equities held a greater percentage of total units than Widebase Limited.
• Widebase is a wholly owned subsidiary of Mayberry Group Limited (MGL), which also owns Mayberry Jamaican Equities. As a result, MGL could potentially control 32.6% of the total units.

(Sources: JSE & NCBCM Research)

• Economic growth in Barbados is set to slow in 2025, primarily due to the United States (U.S.) trade policy and a related global economic slowdown. Real GDP is forecasted to expand by 1.7% in 2025 according to Fitch Solutions, moderating from an estimated 4.0% growth rate in 2024. This marks a downward revision from Fitch’s previous 2025 forecast of 2.5%.
• In 2025, Barbados is expected to be significantly impacted by U.S import tariffs. Almost a fifth of the country's goods exports were sent to the U.S. in 2024, with the largest categories, including beverages (mainly rum), jewellery and various light-manufacturing products such as trailers. These products will lose some competitiveness in the U.S. market due to the 10% baseline tariffs. Furthermore, real GDP growth in the U.S. is expected to slow from 2.8% in 2024 to 1.2% in 2025, weakening demand for imported goods generally.
• More importantly, lower tourism arrivals will be the main drag on economic growth due to the negative impact on export receipts and the knock-on effect on private consumption and investment. Although exempt from U.S. tariffs, tourism receipts in Barbados will be negatively affected by U.S. trade policy. A tariff-induced economic slowdown in the U.S. and other tourism source markets will weaken arrivals in Barbados.
• Barbados has increased its reliance on US tourists in recent years as airline passenger capacity between the two countries doubled over the past decade. U.S. tourists typically make up a third of total arrivals and accounted for three-quarters of the growth in tourism arrivals in 2024. The U.K., Canada and the EU account for another 50% of tourists, and Fitch forecasts slower economic growth in all these markets in 2025.
• Overall, services exports (mainly tourism) are expected to contract by 2.0% in real terms in 2025, the first decline since the Covid-19 pandemic. Consequently, weakness in the tourism sector will drag on private consumption and investment growth in the wider economy as the sector accounts for around 15% of GDP and 20% of employment (directly and indirectly).

(Source: Fitch Connect)

• The World Bank on Tuesday slashed its global growth forecast for 2025 by 0.4 percentage point to 2.3%, noting that higher tariffs and heightened uncertainty posed a "significant headwind" for nearly all economies.
• In its twice-yearly Global Economic Prospects report, the bank lowered its forecasts for nearly 70% of all economies - including the United States, China and Europe, as well as six emerging market regions - from the levels it projected just six months ago before U.S. President Donald Trump took office.
• Trump has upended global trade with a series of on-again, off-again tariff hikes that have increased the effective U.S. tariff rate from below 3% to the mid-teens - its highest level in almost a century - and triggered retaliation by China and other countries.
• The World Bank is the latest body to cut its growth forecast because of Trump's erratic trade policies, although U.S. officials insist the negative consequences will be offset by a surge in investment and still-to-be approved tax cuts. The bank stopped short of forecasting a recession but said global economic growth this year would be its weakest outside of a recession since 2008. By 2027, global gross domestic product growth was expected to average just 2.5%, the slowest pace of any decade since the 1960s.
• The report forecasts that global trade would grow by 1.8% in 2025, down from 3.4% in 2024 and roughly a third of its 5.9% level in the 2000s. The forecast is based on tariffs in effect as of late May, including a 10% U.S. tariff on imports from most countries. It excludes increases announced by Trump in April and then postponed until July 9 to allow for negotiations.
• "Risks to the global outlook remain tilted decidedly to the downside," the bank wrote. It said its models showed that a further 10-percentage point increase in average U.S. tariffs, on top of the 10% rate already implemented, and proportional retaliation by other countries, could shave another 0.5 percentage point off the outlook for 2025.
• Such an escalation in trade barriers would result "in global trade seizing up in the second half of this year ... accompanied by a widespread collapse in confidence, surging uncertainty and turmoil in financial markets," the report said. Nonetheless, it said the risk of a global recession was less than 10%.

(Source: Reuters)

• U.S. small-business confidence improved in May, likely because of a de-escalation in trade tensions between Washington and China, though uncertainty over the outlook mounted amid worries over the fate of President Donald Trump's tax-cut agenda.
• The National Federation of Independent Business said on Tuesday its Small Business Optimism Index increased three points to 98.8 last month, rising for the first time since December.
• The trade truce resulted in the Trump administration slashing tariffs on Chinese goods to 30% from 145.0% through early August. That probably led small business owners to anticipate higher sales, accounting for most of the increase in the index. But the survey's uncertainty index rose two points to 94.
• The share of small businesses expecting higher inflation-adjusted sales volumes jumped 11 points to 10.0%, accounting for most of the improvement in the Optimism Index. There was also a big rise in the proportion expecting better business conditions, though the share reporting taxes as their single most important problem increased.
• The share viewing current inventory as "too low" was the highest since August 2022. That, together with lengthening delivery times of inputs to factories, suggests shortages of some goods and price hikes could be looming.

(Source: Reuters)

• Scotia Group Jamaica Limited (SGJ) reported a net profit of $9.2Bn for the six-month period ended April 2025, representing a 7.8% year over year increase. This was primarily driven by broad-based improvements across all business segments. However, its second quarter earnings actually fell by 7.6% due to elevated operating expenses that exerted downward pressure on the bottom line.
• Net Interest Income for the six-month period rose by 8.5% to $24.25Bn, underpinned by sustained growth in the loan portfolio. Notably, mortgage loans increased by 14.0%, while consumer loans grew by 8.0%, underscoring continued expansion in core lending segments.
• In addition to interest income, net insurance revenue surged by 75.6% or $797.40Mn supported by higher contractual service margin (CSM) releases and improved portfolio efficiency. The performance also benefited from stronger transaction volumes and lower insurance-related expenses.
• Operating expenses climbed by 16.6% for the six months period, with the second quarter operating expenses alone increasing by 22.8%. Higher staff costs, increased technology-related expenses aimed at process improvements, and rising cash transportation costs accounted for the growth in operating expenses. As a result, the cost-to-income ratio rose by 175 basis points to 56.0%, highlighting the near-term pressure from increased expenditures.
• Despite this, SGJ’s continued investment in technology and process improvements reflects a strategic focus on enhancing operational efficiency. While these initiatives have contributed to short-term cost pressures, these investments are expected to improve productivity and cost management over time. 
• On the stock Market, SGJ’s stock price has appreciated by 3.2% year-to-date, closing at $55.27 as at Monday. At this price, the stock trades at a price-to-book (P/B) ratio of 1.10x, which is lower than the Main Market Financial Sector’s average of 1.20x.

(Sources: JSE & NCBCM Research)

• United Oil and Gas (UOG) is intensifying its efforts to find partners for oil exploration off Jamaica’s south coast, promoting the Walton-Morant block as a “world-class frontier opportunity” with game-changing potential. In an interview, CEO Brian Larkin described the block as “one of the Caribbean’s last great untapped oil plays,” suggesting it could rival the massive discoveries in Guyana and Namibia.
• However, Jamaica’s play sits in shallower waters of 50 to 2,000 metres, making the project less costly and more appealing under environmental, social, and governance (ESG) standards. As such, the company is seeking approximately US$50 million to drill its first well and is currently sharing data with “household name” companies, ranging from regional players to oil majors.
• UOG received a two-year license extension in early 2024, giving it until January 2028 to drill. In May, it applied for permission from Jamaica’s environmental agency (NEPA) to conduct piston core sampling — the final step before drilling. Of note, Jamaica drilled 11 oil wells between 1955 and 1982, none of which were commercially successful, though hydrocarbons were found. Larkin believes modern seismic data could change the outcome.
• The most promising near-term target is the Colibri prospect in the Walton Basin, estimated to hold 400 million barrels. Gaffney Cline gave it a 19% geologic chance of success, potentially rising to 33% with piston core results. Even bigger prospects lie in the less explored Morant Basin, with targets like Thunderball (600 million barrels), Moonraker, and Blofeld — all part of UOG’s James Bond-themed naming.
• UOG holds 100% of the license but is open to a farm-out deal where equity would be shared. “There’s potential that we would retain operatorship, or that an importer would want to take the operatorship. That’s all still to play for,” Larkin said. With technical partners already lined up and permitting advanced, the company says it’s ready to move fast.
• With just over two years left before drilling must begin, the pace of partnership development could shape Jamaica’s future as a potential oil-producing nation.

(Source: Caribbean National Weekly)