• Russia is ready for the new reality of a world with no U.S.-Russian nuclear arms control limits after the New Strategic Arms Reduction (New START) Treaty expires this week, Moscow's point man for arms control said on Tuesday, February 3, 2026.
• Unless the two sides reach a last-minute understanding, they will be left without any constraints on their long-range strategic nuclear arsenals for the first time in more than half a century when New START expires on Thursday. February 5th.
• Further to this, BMI analysts see heightened risks that the New START Treaty between the US and Russia will fail to be replaced. The Treaty aims to limit the number of deployed strategic nuclear warheads to 1,550 for each side and limit the number of deployed delivery vehicles to 700. It is also the last major arms control agreement between the world’s two biggest nuclear powers.
• New START was signed by then-presidents Barack Obama and Dmitri Medvedev in April 2010 and took effect on February 5, 2011, for a period of 10 years. It was renewed by President Vladimir Putin and then President Joe Biden for a further five years in 2021, but does not carry the option of further renewal. In September 2025, Putin offered President Donald Trump a one-year extension, but Trump did not respond.
• Although President Donald Trump has adopted a relatively friendly stance towards Russia in his second term, he has been disappointed with Putin’s reluctance to end the war in Ukraine. It is thus unclear if Trump and Putin can work around the Ukraine war to reach a new agreement to replace the New START Treaty.
• A failure to effectively extend or replace the Treaty would raise the risk of a new nuclear build-up by the US, Russia and China (which is not a party to the treaty). Overall, the world appears poised to enter a 'new nuclear age' amid arguably the most unstable geopolitical period in several decades. With the New START Treaty's warhead caps and inspection and verification regimes no longer in place, both Washington and Moscow (and Beijing) would feel free to increase their nuclear arsenals to much higher levels. For example, the U.S. and Russia could simply add more non-deployed warheads onto existing missiles. Meanwhile, growing concerns among U.S. allies about Washington's commitment to their security could prompt them to at least consider developing nuclear arms.

(Sources: Reuters & BMI, A Fitch Solutions Company)

• Main Event Entertainment Group Limited (MEEG) recorded a net loss of J$5.25Mn for FY2025, a reversal from the $70.09Mn net profit posted in FY2024, as higher direct and operating costs offset revenue growth.
• Revenues rose 7.5% YoY to $1.85Bn, supported primarily by the introduction of owned and proprietary events ($189.13Mn) and joint venture/partnership income ($20.54Mn), which together emerged as the main drivers of topline expansion amid softness in some legacy revenue streams.
• Revenue expansion was met by a faster rise in direct costs (+16.7%), owing to higher execution and production costs associated with proprietary and signature events. As a result, gross profit declined by 1.7% to $841.26Mn, and gross margins fell to 0.3% from 5.4% in 2024. Meanwhile, Operating expenses increased by 9.6%. As the Company scaled operational capacity to support a more event-intensive model, it incurred higher staff costs, directors’ remuneration, lease amortisation, and automobile-related expenses.
• Finance costs declined marginally, but this was insufficient to offset growing direct and operating costs.
• Notwithstanding the FY2025 loss, MEEG has reaffirmed its intention to anchor future growth around proprietary and collaborative events. Management aims to complement this with digital transformation initiatives aimed at improving customer engagement, operational efficiency, and event monetisation. While this strategy successfully drove revenue growth in FY2025, reducing costs will be critical to translating topline growth into sustainable earnings growth in upcoming quarters.
• MEEG’s stock price has declined by 5.6% year-to-date, closing at $7.27 as at Monday. At this price, the stock is trading at a P/E ratio of 363.50x, which is above the Junior Market Sector average of 31.23x.

(Sources: JSE & NCBCM Research)

• There were notable developments on the local bond and equity markets between January 30 and February 2, featuring Dolla Financial Services Limited (DOLLA), Wisynco and Grace Kennedy Limited (GK).
• DOLLA has advised that the basis of allotment has been finalised for its public bond offering issued under a prospectus dated October 7, 2025. For Tranche I (11.00% Bonds due 2029), approximately 99.36% of applicants received full allotment, while 0.64% will receive refunds, reflecting near-full satisfaction of demand.
• In respect of Tranche II (12.00% Bonds due 2031), all applicants received full allotment, signalling balanced investor demand across tranches and a successful close to the offer.
• Meanwhile, WISYNCO announced that its Board approved a cash dividend of J$0.23 per share, payable on March 4, 2026, to shareholders on record as at February 12, 2026. The ex-dividend date is February 12, 2026, and would make the 6^th consecutive J$0.23 dividend distribution from the company, which it pays semi-annually. At its current price of $22.75 per share, the company has a dividend yield of 2.3%.
• Lastly, GK disclosed that Directors and Senior Officers acquired a combined 1,210,615 ordinary shares on January 28, 2026, pursuant to Restricted Stock Unit (RSU) grants under the Company’s 2009 Stock Option Plan – Long-Term Incentive Scheme, intended to help align management and shareholder interests.
• The RSU vesting represents only ~0.12% of the 988.88 million shares outstanding, minimising the dilution effect on control and shareholder value.
• As at the close of Monday, February 2, 2026, Wisynco, Dolla and GK closed at $22.75, $71.45 and $2.36, respectively. At these closing prices, the stocks hold P/E ratios of 19.6x, 12.4x, and 9.0x, respectively.

(Sources: JSE & NCBCM Research)

• For November 2025, the first month after Hurricane Melissa struck, net remittance inflows to Jamaica rose by 14.2% year-over-year to US$281.2Mn, according to the Bank of Jamaica (BOJ). This improvement reflected a US$38.1Mn (+14.3%) increase in total remittance inflows, partially offset by a US$3.0Mn (+15.3%) rise in remittance outflows, likely reflecting heightened post-Hurricane Melissa support flows to affected households. The expansion in inflows was primarily driven by stronger activity through remittance companies, while inflows via other remittance channels recorded a marginal decline.
• The expansion in inflows was likely driven by stronger activity through remittance companies. The United States remains the dominant source market, accounting for 66.9% of total remittance inflows in November 2025, although this represented a slight decline from 67.9% in November 2024. Other key corridors included the United Kingdom (12.5%), Canada (9.8%), and the Cayman Islands (6.0%), underscoring continued geographic diversification despite U.S. concentration.
• On a fiscal-year-to-date basis (FY2025), net remittance inflows increased by 2.8% to US$2.17Bn, supported by a US$66.2Mn (2.9%) rise in total remittance inflows, which more than offset a US8.00Mn (5.3%) increase in remittance outflows. This steady expansion provides an important buffer for the current account, particularly as import demand is expected to rise in connection with post-hurricane reconstruction and recovery efforts.
• Looking ahead, the BOJ expects remittance inflows to remain supportive over the medium term, aided by ongoing digital adoption, improved payment infrastructure, and diversified remittance channels. However, there are risks to remittance inflows, including a gradual cooling in U.S. economic growth and easing labour tightness that could moderate migrant income growth over the medium term.

(Sources: BOJ & NCBCM Research

• The Central Bank of the Dominican Republic (BCRD) reported that the country’s economy recorded accumulated growth of 2.1% in 2025, according to the Monthly Indicator of Economic Activity (IMAE).
• Economic performance was driven mainly by the agricultural and mining sectors, along with financial intermediation services and activities related to hotels, bars, and restaurants, which showed solid momentum throughout the year.
• To stimulate economic activity, the Central Bank reduced the Monetary Policy Rate (MPR) by a cumulative 50 basis points during the second half of 2025, bringing monetary conditions closer to a neutral stance in line with inflation expectations. In addition, the BCRD implemented an RD$81Bn liquidity program to support productive sectors.
• As a result, financial conditions eased, reflected in a decline in the interbank rate from 12.6% in June 2025 to 7.1% in January 2026, as well as lower deposit and lending rates across the banking system, helping to strengthen domestic demand.
• The 2.1% growth in 2025 is a sharp deceleration from the country’s decade-long average of 5.0%+, signalling a rare "cyclical cooling" caused by a convergence of high international interest rates, tighter global liquidity, and a significant moderation in private investment, specifically in the construction and manufacturing sectors. This slowdown was further exacerbated by supply-side disruptions, including Hurricane Melissa and power grid instabilities, as well as labour shortages in agriculture and construction following tighter migration enforcement measures by the country in response to escalating instability in its neighbour, Haiti.
• Within 2026, growth is expected to rebound to 4.0–5.0%. This acceleration is underpinned by a shift toward monetary easing, already reflected in a reduction of the policy rate to 5.25%, alongside a doubling of public infrastructure investment to approximately RD$200Bn. Additional support comes from a stronger external sector, driven by record gold prices and resilient foreign direct investment, which reached $5Bn in 2025.

(Source: Dominican Today, NCBCM Research)

• ExxonMobil Guyana averaged 892,000 barrels per day (b/d) of crude oil production in December 2025 across its four producing developments in the Stabroek Block, according to newly released government data. Production by project was 130,000 b/d at Liza 1, 244,000 b/d at Liza 2, 256,000 b/d at Payara, and 262,000 b/d at Yellowtail.
• Yellowtail, the newest development, began producing oil in August and reached its initial production capacity of 250,000 b/d in November. The project’s ramp-up was the primary driver of higher overall output in the final months of the year. December’s average compares with 894,000 b/d in November and 841,000 b/d in October, reflecting the step change in output after Yellowtail stabilised. For the full year, crude oil production from the Stabroek Block averaged 716,000 b/d.
• Liza 1 showed signs of natural decline during the year, falling from highs of around 160,000 b/d in some months of 2024 to 130,000 b/d in December 2025, consistent with the typical production profile of offshore oil projects that move from ramp-up to plateau and then gradual decline.
• A new Stabroek Block project, Uaru, is due to start production this year, adding 250,000 b/d to capacity. All offshore production in Guyana is operated by ExxonMobil, which holds a 45% stake in the Stabroek Block. Co-venturers include Hess, now part of Chevron, with 30%, and China National Offshore Oil Corporation CNOOC with 25%.

(Source: Oil Now Guyana)

• S. President Donald Trump, on Monday, February 2, 2026, announced that he had agreed on a trade deal with India that slashes U.S. tariffs on Indian goods to 18% from 50% in exchange for India lowering trade barriers, stopping its purchases of Russian oil and buying oil instead from the U.S. and potentially Venezuela.
• Indian Prime Minister, Narendra Modi, whom Trump proclaimed to be “one of my greatest friends”, has also committed to buy more than US$500Bn worth of U.S. energy, technology, agricultural and other products, according to Donald Trump.
• On Saturday, Trump teased a potential deal for India to buy Venezuelan oil after the U.S. seized Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro in a military raid in early January. The deal comes after months of tense trade negotiations between the world's two largest democracies.
• Last August, Trump doubled duties on imports from India to 50% to pressure New Delhi to stop buying Russian oil, and earlier this month said the rate could rise again if it did not curb its purchases. Purchases of Venezuelan oil would help replace some of the Russian oil bought by India, the world's third-biggest oil importer.
• India relies heavily on oil imports, covering around 90% of its needs, and importing cheaper Russian oil has helped lower its import costs since Moscow invaded Ukraine in 2022 and Western nations slapped sanctions on its energy exports. However, recently, India has begun to slow its purchases from Russia. In January, they were around 1.2Mn barrels per day (bpd) and are projected to decline to about 1Mn bpd in February and 800,000 bpd in March.
• Indian markets have been battered since the tariffs were levied by Washington, making it the worst-performing market among emerging nations in 2025, with record outflows of foreign investors.

(Sources: Reuters & The Guardian)

• A closely watched barometer of the health of the United Kingdom’s (U.K.’s) manufacturing sector rose to its highest since August 2024 in January 2026 as inflows of new work increased by the most in nearly four years, adding to signs of a pickup after a sluggish end to 2025.
• The S&P Global Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) for British manufacturing rose to 51.8 in January from 50.6 in December, slightly higher than an earlier provisional estimate of 51.6. For the PPI reading, above 50 signals expansion in business activity, while below 50 indicates a contraction.
• The monthly survey of about 650 manufacturers showed new export orders rose for the first time in four years in January, while optimism about the year ahead reached its highest level since before the 2024 autumn budget. Factories reported receiving a higher volume of orders from Europe, the U.S. and China.
• "UK manufacturing made a solid start to 2026, showing encouraging resilience in the face of rising geopolitical tensions," said Rob Dobson, a director at S&P Global Market Intelligence. "There was also a positive bounceback in business confidence, which rose to its highest level since before the 2024 Autumn budget," he added.
• The upbeat survey contributes to the growing evidence that the U.K. economy has strengthened in recent months. Outside of the PMI reading, official figures showed retail sales performed better than expected in December, and Gross Domestic Product (GDP) rose by an unexpected 0.3% in November.
• Prime Minister Keir Starmer and Finance Minister Rachel Reeves have said they think the economy can outperform the modest 1.4% growth rate which the government's independent Office for Budget Responsibility has pencilled in for 2026.
• That said, signs that the economy is picking up are expected to persuade the nine members of the Bank of England’s monetary policy committee (MPC) that they should hold off on a rate cut until they can see more data showing that inflation is slowing. Official figures showed inflation was 3.4% in December, down from the summer’s high of 3.8%, but still some way off the Bank’s target rate of 2% from November.

(Source: Reuters & The Guardian)

• Several companies on the Jamaica Stock Exchange (JSE) announced strategic acquisitions between January 27–28, 2026, with GraceKennedy Limited (GK) and Kintyre Holdings Limited (KNTYR), each moving to full ownership of their existing subsidiaries, while Barita Investments Limited (BARITA) announced that it has completed the acquisition JN Fund Managers.
• GK completed the acquisition of Fonterra Co-operative Group Limited’s (Fonterra’s) remaining 50% stake in Dairy Industries Jamaica Limited (DIJL). This secures full ownership of the manufacturer of the flagship Tastee Cheese brand and other dairy products for local and export markets.
• DIJL, which began operations in 1964, is the only manufacturer in Jamaica and the Caribbean producing processed cheese in a can, and markets its products under well-known brands, including Tastee Cheese, This Is Really Great Yogurt and Anchor powdered milk. In a December press release, GK’s management highlighted DIJL’s consistent growth, profitability, product innovation, and export expansion as drivers of the acquisition, while affirming that its long-standing commercial relationship with Fonterra will continue.
• KNTYR, for its part, announced that it had increased its stake in Kulcha Rum to 100%, a move management expects to support unified leadership, faster execution, and accelerated scaling. Following the acquisition, Kintyre has begun initiatives to expand Kulcha Rum’s footprint, including distributor engagement, selective rebranding, and market sensitisation ahead of a broader production and distribution rollout.
• Finally, BARITA announced it had completed the acquisition of 100% of JN Fund Managers Limited (JNFM) following regulatory non-objection from the Financial Services Commission. As a result of the completion of the transaction, JNFM is now a wholly owned subsidiary of Barita Investments Limited, strengthening Barita’s asset management platform and positioning the company to expand its recurring fee-based revenues across Jamaica and the wider Caribbean.
• Collectively, the disclosures reflect a broader M&A trend, as listed companies seek to diversify revenues, expand their market share of select business lines and increase scale to enhance long-term shareholder value through stronger earnings.

(Sources: JSE & NCBCM Research)

• Producer prices in Jamaica showed mixed movements in December 2025, with relatively stable conditions in Mining & Quarrying and a slight decline in Manufacturing. For December 2025, the Producer Price Index (PPI) for the Mining & Quarrying industry remained relatively unchanged. In contrast, the index for the Manufacturing industry declined by 0.6%, according to the Statistical Institute of Jamaica (STATIN).
• Both major groups within the Mining & Quarrying industry, ‘Bauxite Mining & Alumina Processing’ and ‘Other Mining & Quarrying’, registered negligible changes in their respective index.
• The decline in the index for the Manufacturing industry was driven by a 4.0% fall in the index for the major group ‘Refined Petroleum Products’. The overall decline in the industry was, however, offset by a 0.2% increase in the index for the heaviest-weighted major group ‘Food, Beverages & Tobacco’.
• For the period December 2024 – December 2025, the point-to-point (P2P) index for the Mining & Quarrying industry decreased by 42.8%. This was due to a decline of 44.4% in the index for the major group ‘Bauxite Mining & Alumina Processing’.
• Meanwhile, the P2P index for the Manufacturing industry increased by 2.4%. This was due to a 3.3% increase in the index for the major group ‘Food, Beverages & Tobacco’. The industry’s overall increase was tempered by a 2.7% decline in the index for the major group ‘Refined Petroleum Products’.

(Sources: STATIN & NCBCM Research)