• The Agri-Linkages Exchange (ALEX) portal generated J$100.0Mn in earnings for farmers during the first four months of 2025. The portal is expected to facilitate up to three million kilogrammes of produce this year, valued at J$450.0Mn.
• This was disclosed by Minister of Tourism, Hon. Edmund Bartlett, as he made his contribution to the 2025/2026 Sectoral Debate in the House of Representatives on Tuesday (June 17). Minister Bartlett noted, however, that these figures represent only a fraction of what can be achieved.
• He referenced a study indicating that the market value of fresh fruits and vegetables exceeds J$363.0Bn. “So what the small farmers are doing is a mere drop in the bucket, so to speak. We now require the larger players to become involved,” Mr. Bartlett said.
• To boost agricultural output, the Minister highlighted a directive from Prime Minister, Dr. the Most Hon. Andrew Holness, encouraging long-term contracts between farmers and hotels. This initiative aims to create investment opportunities in agriculture and increase yields. Minister Bartlett stated that this initiative is “very much on the way”.
• “Already, we have had commitment from our large hoteliers to be able to do this, providing, of course, we build the capacity to enable a certitude of flows at the time when required,” he said. Mr. Bartlett also suggested that once long-term contracts between farmers and hotels take effect, banks will follow suit, creating avenues for agricultural producers to invest further in the sector. “When the banks… respond, then the farmers will be active out there and there will be that certitude of flow that is required,” the Tourism Minister stated.

(Source: JIS)

• The United States (US) State Department has confirmed that President Donald Trump is considering a travel ban targeting 36 countries, including four in the Caribbean.
• Over the weekend, the Washington Post reported that Antigua and Barbuda, Dominica, St Kitts-Nevis, and St Lucia were named in a leaked State Department document signed by Secretary of State Marco Rubio and circulated to US diplomatic missions, regarding potential travel restrictions. The memo reportedly cites concerns tied to these countries’ citizenship-by-investment programmes.
• Under the Citizen by Investment (CBI) programme, foreign investors are granted citizenship in exchange for substantial contributions to national development. These four Caribbean countries have previously defended their CBI programmes as legitimate economic tools, citing strong due diligence measures. All four nations have stated they have not received official communication from Washington regarding the proposed travel ban.
• Bruce explained that the US government evaluates countries based on security capabilities, information sharing, identity management practices, visa system abuses such as high overstay rates, and failure to repatriate removable nationals. Furthermore, the memo gives affected governments 60 days to meet new benchmarks.
• In addition to the Caribbean countries, the list includes 25 African nations, along with several from Central Asia and the Pacific.

(Source: Caribbean National Weekly)

• The International Energy Agency (IEA) is warning that global oil supply growth is set to significantly outpace demand in the coming years, as geopolitical tensions, such as the ongoing conflict between Israel and Iran, pose serious risks to energy security.
• In its latest medium-term report, Oil 2025, the agency noted, “As the Israel-Iran conflict focuses attention on immediate energy security risks, the new IEA medium-term outlook sees global oil supply increase set to outpace demand growth in the coming years. With intensifying geopolitical strains and heightened uncertainty about global economic prospects, oil markets are undergoing structural changes as the key drivers of supply and demand growth of the past 15 years start to fade.
• The IEA projects that between 2024 and 2030, global oil demand will rise by 2.5 million barrels per day (mb/d), reaching a plateau of around 105.5 mb/d by the end of the decade. However, production capacity is expected to grow by more than 5 mb/d to 114.7 mb/d, with strong contributions from natural gas liquids and other non-crude sources.
• The United States, Canada, Brazil, Guyana, and Argentina are expected to dominate this non-OPEC+ supply increase. The IEA stated that these five countries will collectively provide nearly one-third of the world’s oil supply by 2030, with the Americas accounting for nearly all the 3.1 mb/d growth projected for non-OPEC+ during this period.
• According to the report, China, which has driven the growth in global oil demand for well over a decade, is set to see its consumption peak in 2027, following a surge in electric vehicle sales and the continued deployment of high-speed rail and trucks running on natural gas. At the same time, US oil supply is now expected to grow at a slower pace as companies scale back spending and focus on capital discipline, although the United States remains the single largest contributor to non-OPEC supply growth in the coming years
• The United States, Canada, Brazil, Guyana, and Argentina are expected to dominate this non-OPEC+ supply increase. The IEA stated that these five countries will collectively provide nearly one-third of the world’s oil supply by 2030, with the Americas accounting for nearly all the 3.1 mb/d growth projected for non-OPEC+ during this period.

(Source: Kaieteur News)

• The Federal Reserve (Fed) held interest rates steady on Wednesday, June 18, 2025, and policymakers signalled borrowing costs are still likely to fall this year but slowed the overall pace of expected future rate cuts in the face of estimated higher inflation flowing from the Trump administration's tariff plans.
• In new economic projections, policymakers sketched a modestly stagflationary picture of the U.S. economy, with economic growth slowing to 1.4% this year, unemployment rising to 4.5% by the end of this year, and inflation finishing 2025 at 3%, well above the current level.
• While policymakers still anticipate cutting rates by half a percentage point this year, as they projected in March 2025 and December 2024, they slightly slowed the pace from there to a single quarter-percentage-point cut in each of 2026 and 2027 in a protracted fight to return inflation to the central bank's 2% target.
• Under the new projections, inflation remains elevated at 2.4% through 2026 before falling to 2.1% in 2027 amid largely stable unemployment. The 1.4% growth in output this year compares to the 1.7% rate seen in the last round of projections in March, and the 4.5% unemployment rate expected at the end of the year is up from the 4.4% projected in March. The rate in May was 4.2%
• So far, however, "the unemployment rate remains low, and labour market conditions remain solid," the Fed said in its policy statement, which was approved unanimously. It did not mention the sudden outbreak of hostilities between Israel and Iran and the risk that conflict posed to global oil or other markets.
• The rate projections from Fed officials for this year, at least, are in line with recent market expectations for a quarter-percentage-point rate reduction as soon as the September meeting. The central bank continues to ignore Trump's call for immediate rate cuts, a move Fed officials feel would be counter to their effort to ensure inflation returns to their 2% target until key tariff changes are finalised and their effects are better understood.

(Source: Reuters)

• Between June 3 to June 16, 2025, a total of 34 new foreign policy measures were announced globally. Of these, 76.5% were restrictive, introducing new barriers to international trade and limiting market access, while the remainder were liberalising measures, designed to ease existing trade barriers.
• These new policy actions reveal several key trends, including greater protection of domestic industries from geopolitical risks, efforts to boost strategic sector competitiveness, and selective liberalisation with eased restrictions in some areas.
• Over the two weeks, 15 markets introduced new foreign policy measures. The United States (U.S.) and the European Union (EU) increased tariffs to shield domestic industrial and consumer sectors from foreign competition. Italy and Canada have provided financial aid to the energy, agriculture, and industrial sectors to boost their competitiveness. In contrast, New Zealand and Mainland China are taking steps to open up certain essential and strategic industries, with New Zealand granting tariff concessions and China issuing export licenses.
• Italy, India, and Russia were also particularly active in imposing new measures. The majority of their actions targeted sectors such as financial services, industrial inputs, and consumer goods. Conversely, Mainland China, the US, Germany, and France are among the markets set to be most affected by new measures, primarily in sectors such as industrial inputs, consumer goods, and pharmaceuticals.
• Key segments such as industrial inputs, consumer goods, and energy were notably impacted by policy measures. These sectors accounted for over 67% of the policies implemented during this period.
• The industrial segment faced mainly restrictive policies, especially in agriculture and precious metals, with Italy and India providing financial support to limit international competition. Australia, however, eased tariffs on rubber, aiding global trade.
• For consumer goods, Russia reduced export duties on grains, boosting international markets, while Turkey implemented price controls that could restrict exports. The energy sector saw only restrictive measures: Canada funded domestic energy firms like Eavor Technologies, strengthening local industry, and Denmark provided trade finance to support clean energy exports to Ukraine.

(Source: Fitch Connect)

• Local pharmaceutical distributor Indies Pharma Jamaica Limited (Indies) reported a 9.2% decline in earnings to $63.77Mn for its second quarter ended April 2025 (Q2 2025). However, aided by a favourable first quarter performance, its earnings grew by 3.2% to $156.61Bn for the six-month period ended April 2025 (6M 2025).
• Gross profits fell 4.4% to $199.38Mn, as a 10.4% decline in revenue to $270.00Mn was mitigated by a 24.0% decline in direct costs to $70.61Mn. While the group benefited from a 2.1% decline in administrative and other expenses to $201.85Bn and a tripling of Foreign Exchange Gains to $1.71Mn, it was insufficient to prevent the reduction in second quarter profits.
• Despite the Q2 dip, the group’s 6M 2025 earnings are still up year to date, on the back of a stronger Q1 2025. Revenue increased by 4.4%, outpacing the 2.3% increase in direct costs. Consequently, gross profits rose 5.3% for 6M 2025. Notably, bottom-line growth was also bolstered by a $6.37Mn (3.8%) decline in Admin and other expenses, which ultimately contributed to the higher profits.
• With 6M earnings still in good health, major developments in its drug development strategy could support future earnings growth. Indies successfully secured a distribution agreement in the United States for its USFDA-approved drug, REGADENOSON². This move is expected to create new revenue streams and significantly expand the company’s international market presence, with commercial sales and distribution targeted by the end of fiscal year 2025. However, success will ultimately depend on how well it navigates potential risks and challenges like the highly competitive U.S. pharmaceutical market, high US distribution and marketing costs, potential drug approval setbacks, and the significant expense of ongoing research and development.
• Indies’ stock price has increased by 2.8% year-to-date, closing at $3.63 as of Tuesday. At this price, the stock is trading at a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 20.74x, which is higher than the Junior Market Health Sector’s average of 18.62x.

_________________________
¹ According to Indie’s latest annual report, OOI includes insurance claim, rental income, and gains on the disposal of property, plant and equipment. However, the 6M 2025 report offered no breakout.
²Regadenoson is used to test the heart for coronary artery disease. It is used in patients who cannot exercise for their stress test.

(Source: JSE & NCBCM Research)

• Local Consumer prices for May 2025 were up 0.4% relative to April 2025, and 5.2% relative to May 2024, according to newly released data from the Statistical Institute of Jamaica (STATIN).
• The All-Jamaica Consumer Price Index (CPI), which measures the average change in the prices of goods and services purchased by households for consumption, rose from 141.3 in April 2025 to 141.9 in May 2025 (+0.4%). This upward adjustment was primarily driven by a 1.5% increase in the index of the ‘Housing, Water, Electricity, Gas and Other Fuels’ division¹. Additionally, an increase in prices for meals resulted in the index for ‘Restaurant and Accommodation Services’ rising by 0.9%.
• However, food costs remain relatively flat, with the heavily weighted index for ‘Food and Non-Alcoholic Beverages’ rising only marginally (0.1%). This reflects higher prices for ‘Fish and Other Seafood’ (+1.0%), ‘Cereals and cereal products’ (+0.4%) and ‘Meat and other parts of slaughtered land animals’ (+0.4%) that were offset by declines in the costs for ‘Vegetables, tubers, plantains, cooking bananas and pulses’ and ‘Fruits and nuts’ of 0.4% and 1.6%, respectively.
• With the May outturn point-to-point inflation (P2P) rose 5.2% for May 2025. This is slightly down from the 5.3% P2P inflation in April 2025. The marginally lower P2P inflation outturn in May relative to April is consistent with the Bank of Jamaica’s (BOJ’s) expectations of stable inflation in the near term.
• That said, the risks to the inflation forecast are skewed to the upside. Inflation could inch higher if the effective tariff wall rises higher than projected, resulting in a larger impact on imported inflation and inflation expectations. Higher inflation could also result from further escalation in geopolitical tensions, especially with the escalation of the Israel-Iran conflict, which could negatively impact international supply chains and cause a spike in energy prices.

_________________________
¹Influenced primarily by a 4.4% rise in the index of the ‘Electricity, Gas and Other Fuels’ group, which was largely impacted by higher electricity rates.

(Source: STATIN and BOJ, NCBCM Research)

• The Trinidad and Tobago Chamber of Industry and Commerce (TT Chamber) and the St Kitts and Nevis Chamber of Industry and Commerce formalised a significant step forward in regional economic collaboration with the signing of a trade and business development alliance agreement.
• The agreement reinforces the shared commitment of both chambers – proud members of the Caribbean Chambers of Commerce (CARICHAM) network – to deepen co-operation, promote regional integration, and strengthen the voice of the private sector across the Caribbean.
• Through this partnership, the chambers aim to: collaborate on joint initiatives that expand economic and social opportunities for businesses and communities in both TT and St Kitts and Nevis; share research and technical expertise in sectors of mutual interest, such as tourism, financial services, agriculture and renewable energy; undertake collaborative research to assess trade feasibility, develop best practices and promote cultural and commercial exchange between the two countries; facilitate knowledge transfer and capacity-building programmes to strengthen institutional and private sector capabilities.
• It also aims to: build and deepen linkages with government agencies, investment promotion entities and other key trade and development stakeholders; organise and support bilateral trade missions and business delegations that further the objectives of the alliance; advance the UN's sustainable development goals (SDGs) through aligned private sector actions and policies and; identify and address trade barriers, market access constraints and regulatory challenges in a co-operative and solutions-oriented manner.

(Source: Trinidad Express)

• Wall Street indexes ended lower, oil kept climbing, and U.S. borrowing costs fell on Tuesday as U.S. President Donald Trump left the Group of Seven summit early and investors awaited a series of interest rate decisions by major central banks. Trump returned to Washington a day before the summit ends as the Israel-Iran conflict intensified, saying U.S. patience was wearing thin but that he would not kill Iran's leader "for now."
• Yields on 10-year Treasuries fell, indicating stronger demand for a safe haven as investors weigh the conflict as well as prepare to parse Fed Chair Jerome Powell's tone at a scheduled update on Wednesday. Trump's early departure from Canada nixed hopes for more progress on issues like the tariffs he has promised to impose.
• "The market was anxious to hopefully hear updates on trade agreements out of the G7 and the news of Trump leaving early was disappointing, although we all know why," said Eric Sterner, chief investment officer at Apollon Wealth Management.
• "The market is paying attention to the (Middle East) conflict, but it feels that's contained to those two countries," Sterner said. "It does cause concern, especially if Iran does anything with the Strait of Hormuz," he added, noting that around 20% of the world's oil supply passes through that waterway. So far, there has been no noticeable interruption to oil flows, and Qatar said its production at the world's largest gas field was steady after an Israeli air strike led Iran to partially suspend production.
• S. crude continued to surge and settled 4.46% higher at $74.97 a barrel, while Brent rose to $76.54 per barrel, settling up 4.52% on the day. Stocks stayed under pressure, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average extending losses to end 0.70% lower on the day. The S&P 500 (SPX) fell 0.84% and the Nasdaq Composite shed 0.91%.

(Source: Reuters)

• U.S. Senate Republicans on Monday, June 16, 2025, unveiled proposed changes to President Donald Trump's sweeping tax-cut and spending bill that would make some business-related tax breaks permanent while making more limited, the deduction for state and local income taxes, angering some colleagues in the House of Representatives.
• The different versions of the bill in the two narrowly Republican-controlled chambers of Congress could complicate party leaders' goal of passing the bill, which is the centrepiece of Trump's domestic agenda, before a self-imposed July 4 deadline. The new changes ran into early resistance from two separate Senate Republican camps: those who want deeper spending cuts to attack the growing federal deficit and others looking to preserve social safety nets, including the Medicaid healthcare program for lower-income Americans.
• One big change would involve maintaining the current $10,000 cap on federal deductions for state and local income taxes, well below the $40,000 limit in the version approved by the House last month. That drew immediate criticism from House Republicans whose constituents would benefit from the higher deduction. But a committee document shows the amount is subject to continuing negotiations. The Senate Finance Committee proposal would also cap tax breaks on tipped income and overtime pay that Trump promised during the 2024 campaign. The House version would allow deductions on tipped income for those earning up to $160,000 a year.
• The bill would extend the 2017 tax cuts that were Trump's main legislative achievement during his first term in office and would also boost spending for the military and border security. The measure raises the federal government's self-imposed debt ceiling by $5Tn, a step Congress must take by some time this summer or risk a devastating default on the nation's $36.2Tn in debt.
• With a 53-47 Senate majority and a 220-212 edge in the House, Republicans can afford to lose few votes to pass a bill that faces united Democratic opposition.

(Source: Reuters)