• Oil prices fell on Tuesday as traders thought a possible cease-fire in Russia's war with Ukraine might lead to easing or the end of sanctions on Russian crude oil, which would in turn boost global supply.
• Brent crude futures were down 50 cents, or 0.75%, at $66.10 a barrel. U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude futures for September delivery, set to expire on Wednesday, were down 72 cents, or 1.14%, at $62.70 per barrel. The more active October WTI contract was down 66 cents, or 1.05%, at $62.04 a barrel.
• Following a White House meeting on Monday with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy and European allies, U.S. President Donald Trump announced in a social media post that he had spoken with Russian President Vladimir Putin.
• Trump said arrangements were being made for a meeting between Putin and Zelenskiy, which could lead to a trilateral summit involving all three leaders. Suvro Sarkar, lead energy analyst at DBS Bank, said Trump's softened stance on secondary sanctions targeting importers of Russian oil had reduced the risk of global supply disruptions, easing geopolitical tensions slightly.
• Chinese refineries have purchased 15 cargoes of Russian oil for October and November delivery as Indian demand for Moscow's exports has fallen away. Zelenskiy described his talks with Trump as "very good" and noted discussions about potential U.S. security guarantees for Ukraine. Trump confirmed the U.S. would provide such guarantees, though the extent of support remains unclear.
• Trump has pressed for a quick end to Europe's deadliest war in 80 years, but Kyiv and its allies worry he could seek to force an agreement on Russia's terms.

(Source: Reuters)

• The Bank of England (BoE) will cut interest rates by a quarter-point once more this year and then again in early 2026 as a resilient economy generates persistent inflation, according to most economists in a Reuters poll who have largely not changed their outlook in the past month.
• Earlier this month, the central bank cut Bank Rate by 25 basis points to 4.00% after a rare second round of voting, in a 5-4 split in the Monetary Policy Committee. Governor Andrew Bailey said easing should not happen "too quickly or by too much."
• An unexpected surge in inflation to 3.6% in June prompted the BoE to lift its forecast for it to peak at 4.0% this quarter. Data due on Wednesday are likely to show inflation, which the BoE targets at 2.0%, rose further in July to 3.7%. However, economists in the poll still expect inflation to peak around current levels, suggesting that most have not adjusted their forecasts during August, which tends to be a quiet month with many economists away on summer holidays.
• Fifty of 62 economists polled August 13-19 said the BoE will cut Bank Rate by 25 basis points once more this year, most likely at the November meeting, which coincides with the bank's forecasting round. Nine expected the central bank to remain on hold.
• "Right now, the Bank of England is really on a knife-edge in terms of whether it wants to cut interest rates further. We think the disinflationary momentum, particularly in the wage data, will be just about enough to tip the MPC into cutting rates in November. I wouldn't be surprised to see continued split votes - two-way votes, three-way votes," said Chris Hare, senior economist at HSBC.

(Source: Reuters)

• Driven by a combination of increased revenue and lower direct costs, Dolphin Cove Limited (DCOVE) delivered a strong wave of earnings in Q2. Earnings for the quarter totalled US$1.07Mn, a 43.1% increase relative to Q2.
• During the quarter, DCOVE welcomed 47,817 visitors, an 8.0% increase over the same period in 2024. This, along with the Easter holiday in April and increased capacity at Yaaman boosted sales across all segments, driving quarterly revenue growth up 10.0%. Per-capita revenue also rose 7.0% year-over-year.
• This was achieved despite a 3.0% drop in arrivals from Sangster International Airport (MBJ) due to a falloff in arrivals from the USA (-5.0%), Canada (-6.0%), and the UK (-22.0%).  The strong topline growth reflects a surge in adventure activities, with Yaaman seeing its attendance up 30.0% compared to 2024.
• Direct costs fell to US$4.78K (from US$545.5K), and disciplined resource management kept Q2 operating costs at 11.1% of revenue (vs 14.1% in 2024), lifting gross profit to US$3.80Mn.
• Despite the stronger Q2 results, 6M net profit slipped 9.4% to US$1.93Mn, reflecting weaker Q1 earnings (-37.8% YoY), which eroded the earnings gains in Q2 as softer revenue owing to adverse weather and fewer cruise calls.
• As at the close of trading on Monday, DCOVE shares closed at J$14.09, reflecting a 23.8% year-to-date decrease. At this price, the shares trade at a P/E of 21.04x, which is above the Junior Market Tourism Sector Average of 16.36x.

(Sources: Dolphin Cove Limited & NCBCM Research)

• After declining in June, local consumer prices for July 2025 rose by 0.3%; however, point-to-point (P2P) inflation fell to 3.3% from 3.8% for June, according to the Statistical Institute of Jamaica (STATIN). This marks the second consecutive month that inflation is falling below the lower band of the Bank of Jamaica’s target range.
• The monthly increase was mainly due to a 0.9% rise in the index for the ‘Food and Non-Alcoholic Beverages’ division. Within the division, the index for the ‘Food’ rose by 0.9%, while the index for the ‘Non-Alcoholic Beverages’ increased by 0.4%. The increase in the ‘Food’ division reflects higher prices for agricultural produce, including vegetables and tubers.
• The inflation rate for the month was also influenced by an upward movement of 0.4% in the index for the ‘Transport’ division. This was due mainly to a 1.4% increase in the index for the group ‘Operation of Personal Transport Equipment’, primarily driven by higher petrol prices.
• The overall rate of inflation was moderated by a 0.8% decline in the index for the ‘Housing, Water, Electricity, Gas and Other Fuels’ division. This resulted from a 2.9% fall in the index for the group ‘Electricity, Gas and Other Fuels’ due to lower electricity rates owing to a reduction in general consumption tax on electricity.
• With the July price decline, the P2P inflation rate for the period July 2024 to July 2025 was 3.3%. This was influenced mainly by the point-to-point inflation rates for the divisions: ‘Food and Non-Alcoholic Beverages (3.7%), ‘Housing, Water, Electricity, Gas and Other Fuels’ (3.7%) and ‘Restaurant and Accommodation Services’ (6.3%).
• The continued decline of inflation below the BOJ’s 4.0%–6.0% target range creates a favourable condition for the BOJ to accelerate rate cuts in order to realign monetary conditions with its inflation mandate and support economic activity.

(Sources: STATIN, Bank of Jamaica, NCBCM Research)

• Brazil's central bank is still assessing whether the benchmark interest rate at 15% is appropriate to bring inflation down to its 3% target, economic policy director Diogo Guillen said on Monday, August 18, 2025.
• Policymakers kept rates unchanged in late July 2025 at a near 20-year high after 450 basis points in hikes since last September. They signalled borrowing costs would remain steady for a "very prolonged" period. Speaking at an event hosted by Warren Investimentos, Guillen stressed that the guidance signalled more rate holds. "We are still evaluating whether this is the appropriate rate to bring inflation to target," he said. "Once that rate is determined, it will remain unchanged for a very long period."
• Guillen acknowledged recent downside surprises in consumer price readings, but said the key issue with inflation is that it remains above target, with expectations and projections also unanchored from the official goal. Prices were up 5.23% in the 12 months through July, down from 5.35% in the previous month and below forecasts.
• Furthermore, Guillen emphasised economic growth is losing steam, as expected following the central bank's tightening stance.

(Source: Reuters)

• Four Caribbean central banks are set to launch a pilot project to develop an alternative payment system aimed at reducing reliance on the US dollar for trade and remittances. Spearheaded by the Eastern Caribbean Central Bank (ECCB), the Caricom Payment and Settlement System (CAPSS) seeks to transform cross-border transactions and will eventually link to Africa’s Pan-African Payment and Settlement System (PAPSS), established in 2022. The pilot will initially include Barbados, The Bahamas, ECCB member states, and one additional country to be confirmed.
• Designed as a real-time, low-cost platform operating in local currencies, CAPSS mirrors PAPSS, a centralised system developed by Afreximbank and the African Union to enable secure, real-time cross-border payments in local currencies across Africa. The African platform currently connects central banks, commercial banks, and payment service providers in countries including Nigeria, Ghana, Kenya, Egypt, and Rwanda, among others.
• The Caricom adoption of the model is intended to facilitate regional trade and remittances in local currencies, bypassing costly and often unreliable correspondent banks in the United States. “We cannot continue to rely on correspondent banks, particularly those from the US,” said ECCB Governor Timothy Antoine. Through CAPSS, transactions — such as from Grenada to Guyana — could be settled in Eastern Caribbean and Guyanese dollars, with central banks and the African Export-Import Bank serving as settlement agents.
• “In day-to-day transactions, traders will be trading in local currencies. That, we believe, is a potential breakthrough,” Antoine noted. He also emphasises that “…while background settlements will still involve US dollars between central banks, the day-to-day transactions will use local currencies – a key innovation with broad potential.”

(Source: Caribbean National Weekly)

• British goods exports to the United States fell to their lowest level in more than three years in June, according to official data published on Thursday that showed the hit from U.S. President Donald Trump's initial import tariff blitz.
• Sales of British goods to the United States fell to 3.9 billion pounds ($5.3 billion) during the month, down by 0.7 billion pounds from May and about 20% lower than a monthly average of 4.9 billion pounds in 2024.
• The last time Britain exported fewer goods to the United States - including sales of precious metals, which can be volatile- was in February 2022, the Office for National Statistics (ONS) said. British Prime Minister Keir Starmer and Trump agreed on a trade deal which came into force on June 30 to cut high tariffs on cars and aerospace parts, but leaves a 10% tariff on most exports, with steel not yet covered.
• Exports of all commodities to the United States decreased in June, with machinery and transport equipment, including cars, which were hit by higher initial U.S. duties, down by 0.2 billion pounds.
• The ONS last week said a third of exporting businesses with 10 or more employees reported an impact from the U.S. tariff. British imports of U.S. goods increased by 0.2 billion pounds in June, driven by higher aircraft sales, Thursday's data showed.
• In the April-to-June period, British exports to the United States fell by more than a quarter, reflecting how many manufacturers rushed to send their products across the Atlantic before Trump's first tariffs blitz in April.

(Source: Reuters)

• Japan's economy grew much faster than expected in the second quarter as export volumes held up well against new U.S. tariffs, giving the central bank some of the conditions it needs to resume interest rate hikes this year.
• Gross domestic product (GDP) rose 1.0% on an annualised basis, government data showed on Friday, marking the fifth straight quarter of expansion after the previous quarter's contraction was revised to growth.
• However, analysts warn global economic uncertainties fuelled by U.S. tariffs could weigh on the world's fourth-largest economy in the coming months, especially as automakers struggle to keep prices down for American customers.
• "The April-June data masked the real effect of Trump's tariffs," said Takumi Tsunoda, senior economist at Shinkin Central Bank Research Institute. "Exports were strong thanks to solid car shipment volumes and last-minute demand from Asian tech manufacturers ahead of some sectoral tariffs. But these aren't sustainable at all."
• The increase in GDP was helped by surprisingly resilient exports and capital expenditure, and compared with median market expectations for a 0.4% gain in a Reuters poll. It followed a 0.6% rise in the previous quarter, which was revised up from a 0.2% contraction.
• The reading translates into a quarterly rise of 0.3%, better than the median estimate of a 0.1% uptick. The strong data contrasts with China, which saw factory output growth hit an eight-month low and retail sales slow sharply in July.

(Source: Reuters)

• Buoyed by robust sales volumes, Omni Industries saw its earnings rebound in the quarter ended June 30, 2025 (Q2 2025). Net profits totaled $51.75Mn, a 68.4% year-over-year increase.
• Revenues rose by 19.4% in Q2 2025 to $571.41Mn driven by sales volumes, particularly within the Company’s core construction-related product lines, which contributed 58% of total revenue.
• Cost of goods sold (COGS) also increased during the quarter, driven by a combination of external and operational factors. Global trade tensions, including the imposition of new U.S. tariffs on Chinese imports and heightened policy uncertainty, disrupted international supply chains and led to a rise in shipping cancellations. In response, OMNI temporarily sourced raw materials from non-traditional suppliers to maintain production continuity and fulfill customer commitments. While effective in safeguarding operations, this approach resulted in higher input costs, directly contributing to the 12.4% increase in COGS. However, the increase in cost of sales was outweighed by the pace of revenue growth, resulting in a 138bps improvement in gross margin to 35.9%.
• Similarly, operating expenses rose by a modest 4.0% to $171.92Mn, reflecting higher haulage costs and depreciation expenses associated with newly commissioned machinery. While these investments are expected to enhance future production capacity and product quality, the overall increase was partially offset by cost optimisation initiatives and ongoing efforts to improve internal efficiencies through automation.
• Despite the improvement in earnings during Q2, year-to-date earnings were down 23.7%, reflecting the impact of a weak first quarter during which earnings declined by 60.3%
• Omni Industries is executing a growth strategy focused on capital investment in production capacity, through machinery upgrades, and the expansion of its export footprint into key regional markets, including Nicaragua, Belize, and Barbados. Concurrently, the company is actively diversifying its supplier base to mitigate supply chain risk and reduce exposure to cost volatility. These initiatives are strategically aligned to enhance operational resilience, drive revenue growth, and deliver long-term value to shareholders.
• Despite the second quarter rebound, Omni’s stock price is down 28.4% since the start of the calendar year. The stock closed Thursday’s trading session at $0.78 and currently trades at a P/E of 20.5x above the Junior Market Manufacturing & Distribution Sector Average of 30.7x.

(Sources: JSE and NCBCM Research)

• Jamaica welcomed a record 286,548 stopover visitors in July 2025, marking the strongest July on record. This underscores the island’s continued global appeal. The figure represents a 16.5% increase over July 2024, when over 246,000 visitors arrived, and a 4.8% rise compared to July 2023.
• The strong summer arrivals are part of a long-standing tradition of Jamaicans in the diaspora returning home during the summer months. August, in particular, draws many visitors as the island comes alive with cultural festivals, concerts, and community events, offering returning residents a chance to reconnect with family, heritage, and the vibrant local lifestyle. The strong July performance also occurred despite stricter immigration polices in the US, which stirred fears that this could prevent US green card holders from traveling.
• The record-breaking July performance continues Jamaica’s strong momentum in 2025 and demonstrates a robust recovery in a sector that remains a cornerstone of the nation’s economy. The surge in arrivals is attributed to enhanced airlift capacity, successful marketing campaigns targeting key source markets, and the island’s diverse tourism offerings, ranging from beaches to cultural experiences.
• Jamaica continues to invest heavily in tourism infrastructure, accommodations, attractions, and transportation to sustainably meet growing visitor demand. These investments are aimed at enhancing the overall visitor experience, increasing destination competitiveness, and supporting long-term economic development, as tourism remains one of the country’s leading foreign exchange earners and a key driver of employment.

 (Source: Caribbean National Weekly)