• The Bank of England (BoE) will hold its benchmark interest rate at 3.75% at its February meeting, according to all but two economists polled by Reuters, with only a small majority now expecting it to fall to 3.50% in March following a run of better economic news.
• With inflation still the highest among Group of Seven industrialised peers, the nine-member Monetary Policy Committee has been tightly split at the last few meetings, most recently in December when it voted 5-4 in favour of a quarter-point rate cut. The decision to keep Bank Rate unchanged this month may be less hotly debated, given recent news of the strongest private sector business growth since April 2024, alongside unexpectedly strong retail sales and inflation rising further from the MPC's 2% target.
• Most economists expect inflation to fall again in the coming months, and for strong wage growth to continue decelerating as unemployment creeps up. But there is likely not enough compelling data to justify a majority vote to cut rates again just yet. There is even some evidence of a moribund housing market springing back to life after the uncertainty ahead of the November budget has cleared.
• Of the 56 economists surveyed in a January 21-26 poll, all but two expected the BoE to hold Bank Rate at its February 5 meeting, when it releases its updated quarterly economic forecasts, in line with market pricing. The remaining two forecast a cut to 3.50%. Only around 55% of economists, 31 of 56, expected a cut by end-March while 45% forecast the BoE would hold rates through Q1. In December, 72% of respondents polled expected Bank Rate to fall by 25 bps or more this quarter. As in the December poll, there was no majority view on where rates will be in any quarter beyond the current one, even though the median forecast shows a final cut to 3.25% in Q3.
• The UK economy was forecast to grow 1% this year and 1.4% next, while inflation is expected to average 2.5% this year and fall to 2.1% in 2027.
• Ellie Henderson, economist at Investec, noted inflation will likely dip starting in January as 20% VAT on private school fees imposed in the previous year will drop out of the annual comparison. She also expects weaker rises in water bills from April. "There are also signs the labour market is loosening, wage growth is coming down, which should weigh on services inflation as well. So yeah, we think inflation will fall over the coming months, not quite to the 2% target, but we'll certainly make progress towards it," she said.

(Source: Reuters)

• The Bank of Canada (BoC) is widely expected to keep its policy interest rate ​on hold at 2.25% on Wednesday, but economists and money markets are divided over where Canada's monetary policy cycle ‌is headed for the rest of the year due to economic uncertainty.
• From December, money markets had started betting on odds of a rate hike late this year after a long pause for most of the year. But some economists differ, given the uncertainty around the upcoming renegotiations of the United States-Mexico-Canada (USMCA) free trade pact. The central bank had indicated in October, after cutting rates by 25 basis points, that the benchmark rate was about the right ‌level as inflation continued to be within its target range.
• It had also admitted that it did not have the tools to tackle the structural impacts to the economy unleashed by the U.S. tariffs and the related uncertainty. The BoC had reduced rates by 100 basis points last year, bringing them down to the lower ⁠level of its neutral range, a so-called policy interest rate band where the economy is neither being stimulated nor restricted by rates. However, some ‍economists say that for the rates to be actually stimulative and support the economy, they have to come down even further outside of the neutral range.
• A recent survey of businesses and consumers by the BoC showed that business sentiment of Canadian companies remained subdued amid trade tensions, and consumers were worried about their jobs and ⁠debt payments.
• The BoC will announce its monetary policy decision on January 29. It will also release the quarterly Monetary Policy Report, where it will resume its previous practice of sharing single-point forecasts for the economy and inflation. The MPR is ​expected to have an updated outlook on the impact of the federal budget on the Canadian economy

(Source: Reuters)

• This week saw a flurry of corporate releases on the Jamaica Stock Exchange (JSE) in keeping with regulatory requirements for timely communication around key corporate developments. Amidst various operational hurdles, JSE listed companies are prioritising stakeholder trust by providing clear, proactive roadmaps for compliance and governance.
• In releases this week, Hurricane Melissa was highlighted as disrupting reporting timelines for Express Catering and Margaritaville (Turks). Both companies have cited the storm’s disruption as the cause for their Q2 financial reporting delays and are now targeting January 30, 2026, for the release of unaudited results. The results for Express Catering and Margaritaville were both officially due on January 14. The development underscores how climate events can materially influence financial disclosures.
• While the tourism sector continues to battle the elements, 138 Student Living is navigating the standard rigors of year-end audits. The company has extended its timeline for filing audited financials to February 6, 2026, reflecting the intensified scrutiny and pressure typical of annual closing cycles.
• Looking toward future resilience, Jamaica Broilers Group (JBG) has taken a more in depth approach to oversight by launching a comprehensive governance audit on February 2, 2026. Partnering with Cube Corporate Support, JBG will evaluate board effectiveness and fortify risk mitigation strategies.
• AMG Packaging & Paper Company Limited disclosed a significant director-related transaction, with 13,002,951 ordinary shares (2.54% of issued capital) traded for $31,207,082.40 on January 15, 2026. The transaction occurred outside a closed period and was executed in accordance with all applicable regulatory disclosure requirements
• Rounding out the week, Sygnus Credit Investment is moving forward with its 8th Annual General Meeting on January 28, 2026. Utilising a hybrid model, the company will be integrating in-person attendance at the AC Hotel Kingston with a robust E-Platform, requiring all shareholders to register with their TRN to ensure seamless digital voting and real-time engagement.

(Sources: JSE, NCBCM Research)

• Jamaica’s insurance industry has emerged as a cornerstone of national stability, with life insurance assets reaching $499.40Bn as at September 30, 2025. This is according to Minister of State in the Ministry of Finance and the Public Service, Hon. Zavia Mayne. This was an increase of approximately 9.3%, or $42.70Bn, over the $456.70Bn recorded on September 30, 2024.
• “The total assets of general insurance companies now amount to approximately 3% of gross domestic product (GDP), while the combined assets of life insurance companies account for a significant 14 per cent of GDP,” Mr. Mayne highlighted.
• He was speaking during the Jamaica Association of Insurance and Financial Advisors (JAIFA) Annual Motivational and Professional Development Seminar at the Jamaica Conference Centre in downtown Kingston, where he represented Portfolio Minister, Hon. Fayval Williams.
• According to the Minister, the strength of Jamaica’s economy and its insurance industry are deeply interconnected, noting that a stable economy creates fertile ground for a booming insurance industry.
• Since the 1970s, insurance companies, brokerages, and agencies have played a pivotal role in helping Jamaicans secure their financial future and safeguard the well‑being of their families. Mr. Mayne pointed out that Jamaica currently has approximately 17 registered insurance companies offering critical financial protection across a wide range of products, including health, dental and vision, life, motor, property, and legal insurance.
• He further underscored that the Government regards insurance as a critical tool for national development, emphasising that the sector is viewed as a strategic partner in Jamaica’s growth agenda.

(Source: JIS)

• With labour productivity growth averaging just 0.8% annually since 2018, reflecting persistent inefficiencies in public administration, low technological diffusion in key industries and skills mismatches in the labour market, the Government of Barbados (Barbados) is seeking to boost productivity under the Barbados Economic Recovery and Transformation plan 2026 (BERT 2026).
• Enhancing productivity and competitiveness is Pillar 1 under BERT 2026. The plan is to raise economy-wide productivity through digital public infrastructure, build new export engines through innovation and reindustrialisation, and strengthen the institutional capacity to deliver complex reforms at speed.
• Without a decisive productivity agenda, including investments in innovation, digital skills, and regulatory streamlining, Barbados risks reverting to a low-growth path despite macroeconomic stabilisation. The BERT 2026 plan noted that raising productivity was “the single most important lever for unlocking higher, sustainable growth in Barbados”
• The new economic reform plan flagged productivity constraints, stating that “the foundation of long-term economic growth is productivity, and in this area, Barbados’ performance remains suboptimal”. As such, the government is planning to establish a small, empowered Productivity Delivery Unit, operating on a GovTech-style delivery model, “to close the implementation capacity gap identified across high-friction business and citizen processes”.
• The new Productivity Delivery Unit will focus on end-to-end process redesign, automation, and key performance indicators reporting across priority journeys, including permits, customs clearance, construction approvals, company registration, and work permits. Its mandate will be to accelerate execution, improve service outcomes, and ensure that productivity reforms translate into measurable results.
• Other key reforms outlined include the full operationalisation of the Barbados Electronic Single Window to reduce trade friction and processing times; implementation of the second phase of Business Barbados modernization and merging business registration, payment, and verification processes into a single digital platform. Expansion of the Trusted Trader Programme and digitisation of customs and logistics infrastructure; strengthening of the Investment Facilitation Centre and the launch of the Barbados Investment Plan, which targets sectors with high growth and export potential, such as logistics, high-end tourism, agro-processing, blue economy industries, and renewable energy services are also key reforms being considered, alongside implementation of a Single Digital ID and Business Identity System, supported by legislative and cybersecurity reforms, etc.
• Finally, productivity is not only a function of technology and regulation but also of a healthy and resilient workforce. Rising levels of illness and absenteeism erode output and increase social insurance costs, with the National Insurance and Social Security (NIS) sickness benefits alone amounting to $21Mn in just six months. BERT 2026 will therefore also integrate health and wellness as a core productivity driver.

(Source: Nation News)

• Venezuela's interim president Delcy Rodriguez this week noted that the country has received US$300Mn from oil sales, the first proceeds from U.S. President Donald Trump's announced 50-million-barrel oil supply deal with Caracas, following the capture of President Nicolas Maduro earlier this month. These first funds will be used through the exchange market in Venezuela, by national banks and the central bank, to consolidate and stabilise the market and protect the incomes and purchasing power of Venezuelan workers.
• Trump said separately on Tuesday, January 20, 2026, his country had taken the 50 million barrels out of Venezuela and was selling some of it in the open market, though shipping records show that volume has not yet been exported.
• Reuters reported last week that four Venezuelan banks had been notified by the country's government that they would split US$300Mn of oil revenues deposited in an account in Qatar, enabling them to sell dollars to Venezuelan companies that need foreign exchange to pay for materials.
• Elsewhere on Tuesday, Rodriguez's brother, lawmaker Jorge Rodriguez, said a reform of the country's main oil law, expected to be debated for the first time this week, will be based on a partnership structure first introduced during President Nicolas Maduro's administration, though he provided no details.
• Interim president Rodriguez told lawmakers last week that the government supported changes to the hydrocarbons law to boost foreign investment. The law has a single contract model of joint ventures controlled by the state company PDVSA (Petróleos de Venezuela), but the country has been introducing so-called 'productive participation contracts' for new partnerships in recent years, whose terms have not been fully disclosed. Those contracts are "a fundamental element to be expressed in the law's reform," Jorge Rodriguez told journalists.

(Source: Reuters)

• As US President Donald Trump kicks off the second year of his second term in office, the geopolitical- and tariff-related volatility that characterised his return to power has resurfaced to shake markets. Investors who have been conditioned to asset prices swiftly rebounding are worried that this time there could be more lasting damage.
• Volatility measures across asset classes rose while stocks, U.S. long-dated ‌Treasuries, and the ‌U.S. dollar sold off on Tuesday, January 20, 2026, a day after Trump threatened to rekindle a trade war with Europe over the U.S. administration's aim to take over Greenland, threatening to blow apart the political and military alliance that has underpinned Western security for decades.
• The threats have revived talk of the Sell America trade that emerged following last year's "Liberation Day" tariff announcement in April 2025, with investors shying away from U.S. assets. For Peter Tuz, president of Chase Investment Counsel in Charlottesville, Virginia, the market action was reminiscent of last year where the market peaked in late January 2025, early February 2025, then, as the tariff news hit the headlines, the market had a pretty good correction.
• While Trump has shown flexibility on tariffs when markets come under severe pressure, investors worry it might take significantly more volatility before the situation over Greenland is resolved. Indeed, the selloff concerned investors because it ‍was spread across multiple assets.

(Source: Reuters)

• The U.S. Federal Reserve is expected to hold its key interest rate through this quarter, and possibly until Chair Jerome Powell's tenure ends in May 2026, according to a majority of economists polled by Reuters, a shift from last month when most expected at least one cut by March 2026.
• Expectations that the U.S. economy will continue growing strongly argue against near-term cuts as inflation remains above the Fed's 2% target. However, most economists still expect at least two reductions later this year.
• Moreover, the Fed is expected to keep rates at 3.50%-3.75% at its January 27-28 meeting, with 58% of the polled economists forecasting no change this quarter compared with at least one reduction in last month's poll. While there was no clear consensus on rates beyond this quarter, a slight majority of respondents expect rate cuts to resume as soon as Powell's tenure as the Fed chair ends in May 2026.
• Additionally, the U.S. economy, which grew at a robust pace of 4.3% in the third quarter, is expected to expand 2.3% this year, up from 2.2% last year, poll medians showed. That was upgraded from 2% predicted last month and above the Fed's estimated non-inflationary rate of 1.8%.
• Growth is forecast to average 2% through 2028 while the unemployment rate is expected to remain steady, averaging 4.5% this year. According to the lead U.S. economist at Oxford Economics, a very strong U.S. GDP growth is expected in 2026, driven by further investments in AI, as well as the tax cuts under the fiscal bill.
• The change in the Personal Consumption Expenditures index, the Fed's preferred inflation measure, is expected to stay above the 2% target for the remainder of this year and average above it in each calendar year through 2028.

(Source: Reuters)

• The U.S. Department of State revised its travel advisory for Jamaica. Previously, the country was under a Level 3^[1] travel advisory due to extensive damage in western parishes from the Category 5 weather system, the second highest warning advisory issued.
• Issued January 17, 2026, the revised advisory follows two months after Hurricane Melissa struck western parishes. Washington previously designated the country Level 3, urging citizens to reconsider travel due to crime, health, and natural disaster risks.
• While a Level 2 advisory still urges vigilance regarding crime, health, and natural disasters, it acknowledges improved safety conditions. Notably, all major airports have resumed commercial flights, though travelers are still encouraged to confirm the availability of local services before departure.
• The updated advisory maintains that although violent crime is a risk throughout the island, tourist-heavy districts typically experience lower incident rates than other areas.
• Of note, Jamaica’s ambitious plan to welcome five million visitors, generate US$5 billion in tourism earnings, and add some 5,000 new hotel rooms in 2025 was thrown off track as a series of disruptive events left the sector short on projected targets, even as its investment momentum remains strong.
• As such, the downgrade to Level 2 will likely support Jamaica's tourism recovery as it signals renewed confidence in Jamaica as a destination and provides much-needed support for an industry that has been working to rebuild after significant disruption.

^[1] A Level 3 travel advisory warns people to reconsider travel "due to serious risks to safety and security.”

• After seeing above-trend gross domestic product (GDP) growth in 2024, Trinidad and Tobago (T&T) saw volatile GDP prints at the start of 2025. Real GDP contracted 2.1% year over year (YoY) in the first quarter of 2025 (Q1 2025), its weakest since Q1 2021, amid declines in both energy (4.8% YoY) and non‑energy (‑0% YoY) sectors against a soft external backdrop.
• However, the economy rebounded in Q2, expanding 2.6% YoY, driven by increases in both natural gas (11.7% YoY) and LNG (27.8% YoY) output, alongside gains in petrochemicals. Mining, agriculture, construction and manufacturing were also points of strength.
• Trade and repairs, the largest component of the national accounts, posted a second consecutive contraction, though the pace of this contraction eased versus Q1, a positive sign for H2 2025. Momentum is seen extending into the second half of 2025 (H2 2025), with Liquefied Natural Gas (LNG) output up 24.6% YoY in Q3, growth in wholesale and retail transactions and a stabilising job market. BMI analysts expect the economy to continue expanding at a steady, albeit muted, pace through end‑2025, currently estimated at 0.9% annually.
• Looking ahead to 2026 and 2027, the real economy is forecasted to grow 1.4% in 2026 and 2.6% in 2027. Growth will be driven by expanded production and export of hydrocarbons, with natural gas and LNG output rising alongside steady household demand supported by low inflation, a recent public‑sector minimum wage increase, and a stabilising labour market. Of note, the unemployment rate fell to 3.8% in Q2 alongside an increase in the labour force, supporting the non‑energy economy.
• BMI’s Oil & Gas team is optimistic on natural gas production and export, projecting production growth of 3.0% in 2026 and 10.0% in 2027. This outlook reflects several new gas projects slated to come online, though updated timelines have pushed some start dates back by a year. As a result, BMI revised 2026 GDP growth down to 1.4% from 2.7% while nudging 2027 up to 2.6% from 2.4%.
• Furthermore, consistent declines in local cement and commercial vehicle sales in 2025 point to continued investment weakness in 2026, alongside a slowdown in business credit growth and notable contractions in the import of capital goods in Q1 (-32.9% YoY) and Q2 (-4.0% YoY), respectively. These trends are expected to continue in 2026, given the view of increased interest rates and continued uncertainty from crime and regional tensions.

(Source: BMI, A Fitch Solutions Company)