• December 2025 quarter earnings releases for securities dealers, VM Investments Limited (VMIL) and Barita Investments Limited (BIL) told divergent stories. VMIL’s earnings rebounded, while Barita saw its earnings slip over the same period.
• For VMIL, quarterly earnings increased to $155.8Mn compared to a $91.5Mn loss in the prior-year period as a 44.4% revenue decline was countered by a 64.7% reduction in total expenses. Its lower revenues reflected a downturn in global financial markets that weighed on trading activity and heightened capital market volatility that adversely impacted deal flow. Investor confidence was further tempered by ongoing geopolitical and macroeconomic uncertainty across major developed economies. Meanwhile, its improved cost base was largely attributable to favourable adjustments to credit loss provisions, reflecting strengthened collateral positions across VMIL’s loan portfolio, along with lower management fees.
• However, VMIL’s quarterly improvement was not enough to raise annual earnings, which tumbled by 68.7% to J$173.87Mn. Macroeconomic headwinds, subdued capital markets activity and the absence of a one $422Mn one-off gain from the sale of Carilend¹, which significantly elevated the prior year’s earnings, were the culprits. Looking ahead, VMIL’s management has indicated that it will focus on revenue growth through innovative asset management products, deeper client engagement, and enhanced operational efficiency via greater technology adoption.
• Meanwhile, BIL reported a 62% decline in net profits to J$211Mn for its first quarter ended December 31, 2025, reflecting both weaker revenues (-17.9%) and higher operating expenses (OPEX: +21.5%).
• The decline in revenues was primarily due to lower equity valuations amid softer market conditions. On a positive note, net interest income increased 31%, supported by balance sheet growth. However, non-interest income declined 24%, driven by a reversal of investment gains. In the same breath, OPEX was spurred by lower credit loss reversals relative to the prior year and higher administrative costs. These expenses, however, were partially offset by a 6% reduction in staff expenses.
• Consequently, operating profits fell to J$254.35Mn, from J$675.39Mn, while operating margin declined to 21.6% from 47.0% in the previous corresponding quarter, leading to lower quarterly earnings.
• Despite the quarterly slowdown, BIL has made moves that could raise future earnings. During the quarter, it acquired 100% of JN Fund Managers Limited (JNFM). This is set to strengthen the company’s asset management platform and position it to expand its recurring fee-based revenues across Jamaica and the wider Caribbean. However, value accretion from the acquisition will require disciplined execution to realise revenue and cost synergies.
• Barita also continues to transition its alternative investment portfolio toward development-driven, cash-generating real estate projects. With two major sites advancing through pre-development, the Group is shifting from mark-to-market valuation gains toward more predictable, project-based returns, aligning with its long-term capital deployment strategy.
• Since the start of the year, VMIL and BARITA’s stock prices have decreased by 15.42% and 4.19% to close at $1.81 and $69.01 on Tuesday, February 17, 2026. At this price, VMIL trades at a P/B of 0.88x, below the Main Market Financial Sector Average of 1.11x, while BIL's P/B of 2.36x sits above this sector average.

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¹In 2019, VMIL made a private equity investment in fintech company Carilend.

(Sources: VMIL and BARITA Financial Release)

• As the fifth annual Guyana Energy Conference and Supply Chain Expo got underway on Tuesday in Georgetown, the country’s President, Dr Irfaan Ali, made clear that his government is eager to partner with neighbouring Suriname to jointly develop natural gas resources.
• President Ali has been pushing for a Guyana- Suriname partnership for years. Since being re-elected in September 2025, the Guyanese leader has been championing a second natural gas project in the county of Berbice, which is at the Suriname border.
• On Tuesday, he again spoke about the Berbice plans, this time emphasising that the second gas-to-energy plant will be built in the county, and that a new deepwater port will spur faster industrial development there.
• However, he remained focused on neighbouring Suriname and an integrated gas project. “We’re hoping that very quickly, we can have some decisions because our investors are waiting on those decisions. We want this partnership,” the Guyanese President said.
• Guyana has about a decade of rapid development in the oil and gas industry and has established itself as a major player globally for its production. Guyana is hoping to build in-country capacity too, to meet local energy demands but also to export across the region, President Ali said at the conference.
• Across the border, new oil and gas developments are taking shape in Suriname. Guyana’s President believes that his country is a solid partner, not just because of proximity but because expansion plans are already taking shape.

(Source: Newsroom Guyana)

• US initial jobless claims fell more than expected, declining by 23,000 to 206,000 for the week ended February 14, below the 225,000 consensus forecast. The drop follows a late-January rise to 232,000 and is consistent with a stabilising labour market.
• Federal Reserve officials view labour conditions as steady but fragile. Minutes from the January 27–28 FOMC meeting showed the vast majority of policymakers saw signs of stabilisation, though they also highlighted downside risks, including the possibility that weaker labour demand could push unemployment higher in a low-hiring environment.
• Recent employment gains remain concentrated in defensive sectors, with January job growth largely driven by healthcare and social assistance, suggesting limited breadth and potential vulnerability in the broader labour market.
• Structural and policy headwinds are constraining hiring. Economists pointed to immigration policy restrictions, lingering tariff uncertainty, and the growing impact of artificial intelligence adoption as factors contributing to employer caution.
• Continuing claims increased by 17,000 to 1.869Mn for the week ended February 7, indicating that laid-off workers are facing difficulty securing new employment, despite stable inflows into unemployment benefits.
• Broader labour-market indicators also show emerging slack. The median duration of unemployment is near four-year highs, while recent college graduates are particularly affected by weak hiring and are often excluded from claims data due to limited work history, underscoring underlying softness beneath otherwise stable headline indicators.

(Source: Reuters)

• US unsecured loan balances reached a record high in 2025, rising 10.0% to US$276.0Bn, driven primarily by strong demand from subprime borrowers, according to TransUnion’s Credit Industry Insights Report.
• Borrower participation increased meaningfully, with 26.4Mn consumers holding unsecured loans as of end-December, up from 24.5Mn a year earlier, reflecting expanding reliance on non-collateralised credit.
• Debt consolidation and cost-of-living pressures are key drivers. As interest rates began to ease, many consumers used unsecured loans to refinance credit-card balances, while lower-income households increasingly relied on these products to manage elevated living costs amid weak wage growth.
• Credit-card exposure continues to expand but with tighter risk controls. Total credit-card balances rose 4.0% to US$1.15Tn, though issuers reduced initial credit limits to mitigate risk as lending to lower-income borrowers increased. Delinquencies have also been gradually trending upward.
• Credit growth is expected to normalise in 2026. TransUnion forecasts a 5.7% increase in new unsecured loan originations, signalling a moderation from the stronger post-pandemic volatility in consumer credit demand.
• Mortgage and refinancing activity should improve modestly, with new mortgages projected to grow 4.0% and refinancings up 4.2%, supported by borrowers gaining access to lower rates relative to recent mortgage vintages.

(Source: Reuters)

• The All-Jamaica Consumer Price Index (CPI) for January 2026 decreased by 0.8%, according to data released by the Statistical Institute of Jamaica (STATIN). This contrasts with November and December readings following Hurricane Melissa, where the CPI rose by 2.4% and 1.3%, respectively.
• The main contributor to the decline in the CPI for January 2026 was the ‘Food and Non-Alcoholic Beverages’ division, which fell by 2.4%. A 9.9% fall in the index for the class, ‘Vegetables, tubers, plantains, cooking bananas, and pulses’ and an 8.4% decline in the index of the ‘Ready-made food products’ class were the main drivers. These declines were attributable to lower prices of some agricultural produce, including cabbage, carrots, cucumbers, escallion, sweet peppers and tomatoes. Supplies of these key short-duration crops rebounded in January, likely reflecting in part the efforts by the Ministry of Agriculture to get farming restarted quickly in the aftermath of Melissa through the distribution of seeds, fertilisers, etc.
• Still, the movement in the CPI was moderated by a 0.7% increase in the index for the ‘Housing, Water, Electricity, Gas and Other Fuels’ division. This was due to higher water supply and sewage rates, given the previous disruptions to infrastructure-intensive sectors such as electricity, water supply and waste management, caused by Hurricane Melissa. Additionally, the index of the ‘Education’ division rose by 1.0% due to increased preparatory school fees.
• The annual Point to Point (P2P) inflation rate also fell 0.6 percentage points to 3.9%, for the December 2024 to December 2025 period. As with the monthly figure, the slowdown featured a cooling of the ‘Food and Non-Alcoholic Beverages' class from 7.1% to 5.7%. On the other hand The ‘Housing, Water, Electricity, Gas and Other Fuels’ increased from (3.5% to 4.6%).
• While it’s still too early to call, the inflation decline seems to defy expectations of a rise in 2026, fuelled by higher electricity costs to cover reconstruction of the grid and demand pressures for construction and related materials to facilitate reconstruction efforts.
• In its December 2025 Quarterly Monetary Policy Report, the Bank of Jamaica (BOJ) projected average inflation of 7.4% over the period from December 2025 to September 2027. Core inflation was also expected to rise, exceeding the target range by mid-2026. However, given the unexpected decline in January’s reading amid lower food prices and the fact that the December spike stemmed from a supply-side shock, the inflationary impact of Hurricane Melissa could prove to be more temporary than previously anticipated. As such, the BOJ could revise its inflation outlook at its next Monetary Policy Meeting set for February 23, 2026. Nevertheless, expectations are for the BOJ to maintain its current policy rate at 5.75%.

(Sources: STATIN and NCBCM Research)

• For the nine months ending December 2025 (9M 2026), JMMB Group Limited (JMMBGL) more than doubled its earnings to $4.36Bn (+150.8%), while Proven Group Limited (PROVEN), which has a 20.0% stake in JMMBGL, saw a 39.2% earnings dip to US$1.45Mn amidst Melissa Disruptions.
• JMMBGL’s earnings growth reflected improved funding mix and disciplined capital allocation. These improvements led to a 69.9% increase in pretax earnings from its Banking & Related Services business segment as digital banking services usage and sales productivity increased. Consequently, a 38% surge in Net Interest Income (NII), an 8% rise in fees and commissions, and a 41% jump in fixed income trading gains supported a 23.4% increase in core revenues.
• Meanwhile, the group contained the increase in operating expenses to just 6.4% to J$18.89Bn, reflecting inflationary increases and spending on longer-term strategic initiatives aimed at improving the posture and positioning of the Group¹.
• With revenue significantly outgrowing OPEX, operating profit doubled to $3.56Bn. A similar doubling of the share of profit of associates to $3.48Bn², which countered a 15.3% increase in impairment losses on financial assets and a $1.06Bn increase in tax expenses, also contributed to the group's earnings leap.
• Notwithstanding the growth in JMMBGL’s earnings contributions, hurricane-related disruptions, elevated funding costs, and a slowdown in its manufacturing segment, which weighed on PROVEN’s core operations and caused 39.2% earnings decline for 9M 2026.
• Net operating revenues – which comprise NII, gross profit on manufacturing and property as well as other income – fell 5.4% to US$40.70Mn. NII declined by 19.4% amid elevated funding costs, but the company sees its 6.2% reduction in interest expense as a signal of early cost normalisation. Such a normalisation could support margin expansion into FY2027. Fee and commission income fell 21.7%, due to hurricane-related disruptions to PROVEN’s Cambio operations in Montego Bay. Reduced tourist arrivals and business interruptions dampened transaction volumes and FX trading income in the December quarter. Its Manufacturing operations, led by Roberts Manufacturing in Barbados, also declined by 7.7% to US$13.08Mn. The weight of these declines eroded the impact of a tripling of Net Fair Value Gains to $US4.05Mn, resulting in a negative operating revenue of US$2.66Mn.
• Concurrently, PROVEN’s OPEX rose 7.9%, owing to higher staff costs, depreciation and amortisation, and other operating expenses. As a result, the group had a US$2.66Mn operating loss. Nonetheless, a US$5.66Mn profit contribution from associates like JMMBGL, and, to a lesser extent, Access Financial Services (AFS) significantly cushioned earnings.
• Looking ahead, PROVEN’s management noted that it will continue to execute on strategic priorities that position it for an improved earnings trajectory. Major catalysts include the near-completion of the Sol Harbour and Bahari Phase 1 developments, which are expected to generate approximately US$4.2Mn in profits, primarily in the March 2026 quarter. Management also continues to implement targeted efficiency initiatives set to take effect late FY2026 and into FY2027 to enhance operational leverage and, with it, core operating profit.
• Since the start of the year, PROVEN and JMMB’s stock price has decreased by 17.01% and 12.29% to close at $12.73 and $16.846. At this price, PROVEN trades at a P/B of 0.55x, while JMMB trades at a P/E of 0.53x – both below the Main Market Financial Sector Average of 1.1x.

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¹This includes its digital transformation, standardisation, and centralisation programme, as well as optimising its sales productivity through the continued integration of the sales segments.

²JMMBGL owns a 24.49% interest in Sagicor Financial Company Limited (SFC).

(Sources: PROVEN & JMMB Financial Release, NCBCM Research)

• The Trinidad and Tobago government says it has been issued two United States general licences providing a “clear and structured legal framework” for certain oil and gas activities involving Venezuela and shared maritime areas between the two countries. Prime Minister Kamla Persad-Bissessar described the licences as an opportunity to deepen hemispheric energy cooperation and strengthen regional stability.
• According to the licence terms, any payments of oil or gas taxes or royalties to Venezuela, its state-owned energy company Petróleos de Venezuela SA (PdVSA), or related entities must be directed to foreign government deposit funds or to other accounts as instructed by the US Department of Treasury. The licence also stipulates that it does not authorise payment arrangements deemed commercially unreasonable or involving debt swaps, gold payments or digital currencies issued by or on behalf of the Venezuelan government.
• The development comes amid ongoing negotiations surrounding cross-border natural gas projects between Trinidad and Tobago and Venezuela, including the Dragon and Manakin-Cocuina fields. In April 2025, Washington revoked Office of Foreign Assets Control (OFAC) licences that had previously allowed Trinidad and Tobago to pursue the Dragon and Manakin-Cocuina natural gas projects with Venezuela, citing concerns over democratic governance and migration issues in the South American nation.
• The Dragon field alone is estimated to hold about four trillion cubic feet of gas and had been expected to supply Trinidad and Tobago’s energy sector for years, with first exports originally projected for 2026. The revoked licences froze the projects, despite Trinidad and Tobago already paying more than US$1 million annually in taxes to Venezuela related to the anticipated 20-year Dragon initiative. By October 2025, a revised six-month OFAC licence was granted to allow renewed negotiations under strict conditions, marking a partial reopening of energy cooperation between the two countries.
• The latest licensing decision comes amid major geopolitical changes involving Venezuela. Last month, the United States launched a military operation in Venezuela that resulted in the detention of President Nicolás Maduro and his wife on drug- and weapons-related charges. US officials later said Washington would administer the country temporarily while overseeing a political transition. With the new licences now in place, Trinidad and Tobago says it intends to move forward with energy cooperation in a manner consistent with US law while positioning itself as a key regional energy hub.

(Source: Caribbean News Weekly)

• Mexican state oil company Petroleos Mexicanos has issued 31.5 Bn pesos ($1.8 Bn) in debt, ending a six-year absence from local markets. The transaction consists of 5.5 Bn pesos in notes known as “certificados bursátiles” maturing in 2036; 17 Bn pesos due 2034; and 9 Bn pesos maturing 2031. Demand stood at 2 times over the maximum amount, with the 2034 instrument with a fixed 10.8% rate attracting the most interest, according to a note from Banorte analysts Gerardo Valle and María José Hernández.
• The deal is the first of a 100 Bn peso shelf with a five-year window, according to filings with the Bolsa Mexicana de Valores. “This issuance marked Pemex’s return to the financial markets and was supported by participation from both domestic and international investors, reaffirming investor confidence” in the company’s 2025-2035 strategic plan, the Finance Ministry said in a statement, adding that final terms were below price talk. Proceeds from the transaction will be used to repay financial liabilities maturing in 2026, the Finance Ministry added.
• The last time Pemex tapped local markets was in December 2019, according to S&P Global. But the oil behemoth has been looking to address its massive debt load as part of a broader strategic plan — and Mexico’s government last year went on an unprecedented debt binge, in part to support the company. Chief Executive Officer Victor Rodriguez said this month that the company has reduced its total financial debt to its lowest level in 11 years.
• Further interest-rate cuts from Mexico’s central bank and a forecasted pickup in economic activity compared to 2025 are expected to support a rise in local issuance this year. Companies are also rushing to close pending transactions before an upcoming review of the USMCA trade pact, which could stir up market volatility. “We are anticipating additional debt to support new investments and acquisition processes,” Banorte analysts Gerardo Valle and María José Hernández. Further, some of Mexico’s biggest companies have debt due in the next few years, which will also spur refinancing activity, according to Moody’s Local Mexico.

(Source: Bloomberg)

• The Bank of England is expected to cut its policy rate in March, according to a majority of economists surveyed in a Reuters poll. At its February meeting, the Bank held the Bank Rate at 3.75% in a narrow 5–4 vote, marking the third consecutive closely split decision. Governor Andrew Bailey voted to keep rates unchanged. However, 41 of 63 economists now expect a 25-basis-point cut on March 19, which would bring the policy rate down to 3.50%.
• While a March cut is increasingly viewed as the base case, economists remain divided on the timing of any additional easing. Many anticipate a second rate reduction later in 2026, but uncertainty persists over whether it will occur in the second quarter or in the second half of the year. Median forecasts suggest Bank Rate will end 2026 at 3.25%, implying two total cuts this year.
• Market participants are similarly split. Among Gilt-Edged Market Makers surveyed, projections for year-end rates ranged widely from 3.75% to as low as 3.00%. When asked about the likely number of reductions this year, economists were nearly evenly divided between expecting one to two cuts and two to three cuts, reflecting ongoing uncertainty about inflation dynamics.
• Inflation remains the central risk factor shaping policy expectations. Although January consumer price inflation is expected to ease to 3.0% from 3.4%, it remains well above the Bank’s 2% target. A majority of economists expect second-quarter inflation to exceed the BoE’s own forecast of 2.1%. Underlying inflation is estimated at around 2.5%, and some analysts believe both headline and core inflation could remain near that level through year-end, potentially limiting the scope for aggressive easing.
• The Bank of England expects inflation to move closer to target by April or May due to temporary effects from regulated prices and fiscal measures. Wage growth is forecast to slow to 3.3% by year-end, consistent with inflation returning sustainably to target. However, some strategists have expressed surprise at the Bank’s relatively low 2026 inflation projections.
• The broader economic backdrop is modestly weak. Britain’s economy barely expanded in the fourth quarter of 2025, and growth is projected at 1.0% this year and 1.4% next year, largely unchanged from previous estimates. While this sluggish growth supports the case for rate cuts, persistent inflation pressures are keeping policymakers cautious.

(Source: Reuters)

• The European Union’s trade surplus continued to shrink in December, reflecting mounting pressure from U.S. tariffs and intensifying competition from China. Data showed the surplus narrowed to €12.9Bn from €14.2Bn a year earlier, as declining exports of machinery, vehicles, and chemicals more than offset savings from lower energy imports. The figures highlight growing structural strains on the bloc’s export-led economic model.
• S. tariffs have taken a clear toll on transatlantic trade. Exports to the United States, the EU’s largest export partner, fell 12.6% year-on-year, reducing the trade surplus with the U.S. by roughly one-third to €9.3Bn. While monthly figures showed some volatility, the broader trend indicates weaker sales as higher prices prompt U.S. buyers to reduce purchases or shift sourcing elsewhere.
• At the same time, competition from China is intensifying. The EU’s trade deficit with China widened to €26.8Bn from €24.5Bn, rising roughly 15% over the full year. Chinese exports of increasingly sophisticated technology have deepened competitive pressures on European manufacturers, crowding out domestic production in key sectors.
• Although there was a modest rebound in the monthly surplus, supported by machinery and vehicle exports, economists caution that regaining lost U.S. market share could take years. Given that net exports have been a primary driver of eurozone growth, the erosion of external demand raises concerns that the region may face prolonged expansion barely above 1% annually.
• Despite external headwinds, the domestic economy has shown resilience. AI-related investment and steady consumer demand are helping cushion the trade shock. The euro zone economy grew 0.3% in the fourth quarter of 2025, in line with preliminary estimates, implying annualised growth of roughly 1.25%.
• Labour market conditions remain supportive, with employment rising 0.2% quarter-on-quarter, reinforcing consumption through a still-tight job market. This internal strength is partially offset by weaker external demand.
• Fiscal expansion in Germany is also providing a buffer. Government plans to increase investment in defence and infrastructure are beginning to materialise, with defence-related orders already appearing in industrial data. While the spending rollout is gradual, it is expected to gather pace through the second quarter and reach full momentum by year-end, supporting overall growth.
• Policymakers are also viewing external challenges as a potential catalyst for long-delayed structural reforms. The European Central Bank estimates that removing internal trade barriers within the bloc could help offset losses stemming from U.S. tariffs, suggesting that policy adjustments at home may become increasingly important as global trade dynamics shift.

(Source: Reuters)