• For the financial year ended March 31, 2025 (FY2025), PROVEN’s unaudited earnings to shareholders totalled US$2.57Mn, reflecting a 79.1% decline from the US$12.27Mn for FY2024. The falloff occurred despite an operating profit rebound, as its share of profits of associates is down 63.8%.
• The group’s operating profit rebounded from a US$1.06Mn loss to a profit of US$1.19Mn, supported by marginal operating revenue growth, up 0.4% to US$55.06Mn and lower operating costs, down 3.3% to US$53.87Mn.
• Operating revenue benefited from an 8.8% increase in manufacturing revenue growth to US$18.41Mn and a 20.7% rise in fees and commissions to US$11.43Mn. The Manufacturing segment was supported by commodity prices and product diversification, while fees and commissions were driven by the recovery in trading volumes and commission-driven activities within the wealth segment. The group also saw an 11.6% improvement in its management income to US$4.33Mn. However, most of this growth was negated by an 8.9% decline in net interest income (NII) to US$16.14Mn and gross losses from property sales totalling US$1.08Mn.
• The group’s operating cost savings were more significant than revenue growth, led by savings on staff costs. PROVEN’s staff costs declined by US$5.18Mn (17.5%) to US$24.37Mn, following a restructuring and consolidation exercise in FY2024. Still, these savings were partly offset by a US$3.66Mn (18.9%) increase in other operating expenses.
• Despite the higher operating profit, groupwide and shareholders’ profits – which exclude non-controlling interest were hit by a US$9.67Mn decline in share of profits from associates. PROVEN’s share of profits was primarily attributable to its 20% stake in JMMB Group Limited (JMMBGL), whose profits also softened off the back of a lower share of profits from associates. Last year, JMMBGL, which owns 24.5% of Sagicor Financial Company (SFC), benefited from one-off gains when SFC purchased Canadian insurance firm IVARI at a bargain. In the absence of these gains, JMMBGL’s shareholder profits were down 69.5% to J$3.51Bn for FY2024.
• At market close on Wednesday, Proven’s JMD stock price was J$17.62, down 18.0% since the start of the year. At its current price, the company trades at a P/B of 8.85x, which is below the average of 1.20x for the Main Market Financial Sector Average.

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¹Net Income Attributable to Noncontrolling Interest refers to the portion of a company's profits that belongs to minority shareholders or noncontrolling interest in a subsidiary. Noncontrolling interest is the ownership percentage of a company's subsidiary that is not owned by the parent company.

(Sources: PROVEN Financial Release & NCBCM Research)

• Fitch Solutions anticipates the Jamaican dollar (JMD) will depreciate against the US dollar (USD) through 2025 to JMD160/USD by year-end. The slightly bearish outlook is rooted in a more dovish monetary policy stance expected from the Bank of Jamaica (BOJ) through 2025 in response to a soft domestic economic outlook, muted inflationary pressures, and easing external constraints.
• BOJ policy decisions are expected to continue to influence the trajectory of the Jamaican dollar. Jamaica’s foreign exchange rate is closely managed by the BOJ to mitigate imported inflation and achieve its price stability mandate.
• While the Central Bank does not target any specific level of exchange in its ‘crawl-like arrangement’ (reclassified by the IMF from ‘floating’ in 2022), it explicitly uses foreign exchange interventions to ensure price stability.
• Consistently modest growth numbers suggest that further stimulus may be pursued by the BOJ to support the domestic economy. Encouragingly, the BOJ likely has scope to implement growth-focused monetary policy, as external constraints have waned. Additionally, declining global energy prices and a negative demand shock from slowing U.S. economic activity have mitigated domestic inflation risks, empowering the BOJ to pursue looser monetary policy and a weaker domestic currency with little fear of destabilising domestic price stability.
• Risks to Fitch’s forecast are skewed slightly to a weaker Jamaican dollar. Should the BOJ feel emboldened, it could allow the JMD to depreciate more than expected to stimulate net exports or reduce the policy rate more quickly. While not the core view, if a stubbornly downbeat external environment strains Jamaica’s foreign reserve levels, a more immediate depreciation could result over a longer time horizon.
• However, upside risk to the forecast comes from the potential for significant weather shocks creating supply-side inflationary pressures or renewed geopolitical tensions creating supply chain challenges. Should these risks materialise, the BOJ may opt to pursue a tighter-than-expected monetary policy stance, buoying the domestic currency.

(Source: Fitch Connect)

• SHELL Trinidad and Tobago Ltd has made a Final Investment Decision (FID) on the Aphrodite project, an undeveloped gas field in the East Coast Marine Area (ECMA) in Trinidad and Tobago. According to Shell, the Aphrodite development will allow the company to incrementally expand its Integrated Gas business by leveraging existing developments in the ECMA.
• “Once online, this gas field will serve as a backfill for the country’s Atlantic LNG facility. The increased production will help to maximise the potential utilisation of Shell’s existing assets,” Shell stated in a release issued a short while ago.
• “By increasing the gas supply to Atlantic LNG, the project will not only serve to fortify the domestic gas market, it will also boost the local petrochemical and power-generation industries.” he added. Shell stated that the Aphrodite field remains subject to regulatory approvals.
• Once approved, production is expected to begin in 2027 with peak output projected at approximately 18,400 barrels of oil equivalent per day (boe/d). Once all applicable regulatory approvals are received, Shell will be the operator of Aphrodite with a 100.0% working interest under the Block 5a Production Sharing Contract & Block E Production Sharing Contract.
• This project helps to deliver on Shell’s ambition to solidify its leading position in liquified natural gas (LNG) by growing sales by as much as 5.0% per year through to 2030. According to Shell’s LNG Outlook 2025, Asian economic growth is expected to drive a 60.0% rise in LNG demand to 2040.

(Source: Trinidad Express)

• The executive board of the International Monetary Fund (IMF) approved today a two-year arrangement for Costa Rica under the Flexible Credit Line (FCL) in an amount equivalent to SDR$1.1082Bn (about US$1.5Bn, equivalent to 300.0% of quota).
• Costa Rica has maintained a close relationship with the Fund through surveillance, capacity development, and lending. The authorities sought Fund support through the Rapid Financing Instrument (in April 2020), an Extended Fund Facility (EFF) arrangement (approved on March 1, 2021, and completed on June 14, 2024), and a Resilience and Sustainability Facility (RSF) arrangement (approved on November 14, 2022, and completed on June 14, 2024).
• The FCL is reserved for countries with very strong policy frameworks and track records in economic performance. Costa Rica’s very strong fundamentals and institutional policy frameworks, sustained track records of implementing very strong policies, and continued commitment to maintaining such policies in the future all justify the transition to an FCL arrangement.
• Following the executive board’s discussion on Costa Rica, Kenji Okamura, deputy managing director and acting chair, issued the following statement: “Nonetheless, Costa Rica is vulnerable to the shifting external environment. In the context of increased external risks, the new Flexible Credit Line (FCL) arrangement will provide valuable insurance. Downside risks include a prolonged increase in global uncertainty, slower growth in major trading partners, tighter global financial conditions, and higher oil prices.”

(Source: Caribbean News Global)

• S. economic activity has declined, and higher tariff rates have put upward pressure on costs and prices in the weeks since Federal Reserve policymakers last met to set interest rates, the U.S. central bank said on Wednesday in its latest snapshot of the nation's economy.
• "On balance, the outlook remains slightly pessimistic and uncertain, unchanged relative to the previous report," according to the document, known as the "Beige Book" and which is based on surveys, interviews and observations collected from the commercial and community contacts of each of the Fed's 12 regional banks through May 23. "There were widespread reports of contacts expecting costs and prices to rise at a faster rate going forward."
• The Fed has kept its policy rate in the current 4.25%-4.50% range since December. It is widely expected to leave it there for another few months while its policymakers gauge the impact of U.S. President Donald Trump's trade and other policies on inflation and the labour market. Analysts and Fed policymakers alike anticipate that both inflation and labour market data will deteriorate, and the Beige Book suggests that this is already happening, albeit unevenly.
• Meanwhile, in January, all 12 Fed districts reported economic growth; the latest report showed just three did, while half reported economic declines. Tariffs remained a rising concern, along with uncertainty, impacting in particular prices but also expectations for growth.

(Source: Reuters)

• Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey said on Tuesday he was sticking with a "gradual and careful" approach to cutting interest rates as global trade policy turmoil increasingly clouds the outlook.
• The BoE cut interest rates last month to 4.25% in a three-way split vote. It cited "heightened unpredictability" with markets buffeted by U.S. President Donald Trump's rapidly shifting trade policy.
• While economists polled by Reuters last month expected the BoE to keep cutting rates by a quarter point every three months, financial markets now have only one rate cut fully priced in by the end of this year and just two over the next 12 months.
• Bailey said he had not been surprised by recent data on inflation, which jumped to 3.5% in April from 2.6% the previous month, and he added that the labour market had loosened. Cooling pay growth would be a "crucial" requirement for further interest rate cuts, he told lawmakers. Meanwhile, the BoE said last month it expected the strong growth in the January-to-March period would prove temporary, with output likely to expand by 1% this year, speeding up only slightly to 1.5% growth in 2027.
• External MPC member Swati Dhingra, who voted for a half-point rate cut last month, told the committee that evidence from supply chains pointed clearly to inflation cooling over the medium term, unlike in 2022 when inflation spiked to 11%.
• Catherine Mann, an external member of the MPC who voted against cutting rates last month, said she thought that the labour market was cooling less than she had expected in February when she voted for a half-point cut. She also said the BoE should consider reviewing the pace at which it unwinds past asset purchases rather than relying on extra rate cuts to try to offset upward pressure on long-term bond yields.

(Source: Reuters)

• On June 2, 2025, the Jamaica Stock Exchange (JSE) announced the suspension of trading in the shares of Edufocal Limited (LEARN). JSE’s decision is in keeping with its rules¹ that state that “A Junior Market company shall submit its audited financial statements… within 90 days of the end of the reporting year” and “… its financial statements … within 45 days of the end of the reporting quarter”.
• Edufocal failed to submit its audited financial statements for the year ended December 31, 2024, to the JSE. The Company’s 2024 Audited Financial Statements, due on March 1, 2025, became ninety-three (93) days overdue on June 2, 2025. This marks the second year that Edufocal has been suspended for the late submission of its annual report.
• The delay is said to be due to scheduling challenges being experienced by the Company’s external auditors. Furthermore, at the time of the initial delay, the Company noted that it had formally requested an extension to submit its Audited Financial Statements by June 27, 2025.
• LEARN also failed to submit its 1st Quarter Unaudited Financial Statements for the period ended March 31, 2025, and requested an extension to June 5, 2025, to allow time for final approval and release.

(Source: JSE)

 ¹Junior Market Rule Appendix 2, Part 4 (2) (e) – Audited Annual Financial Statements and JSE Junior Market Rule Appendix 2, Part 4 (1) (e) Quarterly Financial Statements.

• On May 29, 2025, the United States (U.S.) Department of State moderated its travel advisory for Jamaica, reducing the advisory from “Level 3 – Reconsider Travel” to “Level 2 – Exercise Increased Caution”. This comes two months after U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio pledged to revisit the advisory during a joint press conference with Prime Minister Andrew Holness, citing “impressive progress” made in reducing violent crime.
• While the adjustment to Jamaica’s travel advisory will have only a limited impact on Jamaica’s tourism-heavy economy, it reflects positively on the ongoing strength of the bilateral U.S.-Jamaica relationship and Jamaica’s success in reducing crime.
• Jamaica noted a 43.3% decline in murders in the first quarter of 2025 (Q1 2025) compared to Q1 2024, with overall incidents of serious crime from January 1 to April 12 falling by 18.6% compared to 2024. While the advisory acknowledges this progress, it also stresses that Jamaica continues to see elevated crime rates, urging travellers to avoid certain areas of the country.
• The advisory revision also does not change Fitch’s growth forecast for the tourism-dependent economy. Tourist arrivals to Jamaica declined by 5.6% year-over-year (YoY) in Q1 2025, while the total number of visitors from the United States declined by 6.1% for the same period. However, this decline is likely driven primarily by economic factors, including subdued U.S. domestic demand and ongoing U.S. trade policy uncertainty.
• With visitors from the United States accounting for 71.2% of total stopover visitors in 2024, dampened U.S. demand will continue to pose headwinds to Jamaica’s tourism-dependent economy in 2025.
• That said, despite ongoing trade upheavals regarding the U.S., Prime Minister Andrew Holness reaffirmed Jamaica’s commitment to strong bilateral relations with the U.S., a sentiment shared by U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio. This healthy bilateral relationship will likely help mitigate external risks to Jamaica’s economy and political outlook, especially when faced with a volatile Trump administration.

(Source: Fitch Connect)

• Tax revenues as a share of GDP in Guyana fell in 2023, and the country now has the lowest tax-GDP ratio for the Latin America and Caribbean region, a new report by the United Nations Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean (ECLAC) has said.
• This decline is primarily due to explosive GDP growth driven by offshore oil production, which surged, reaching over 645,000 barrels per day in 2024². However, this growth has not translated into proportional tax receipts, as much of the revenue is retained by foreign operators under Guyana’s production sharing agreement with the ExxonMobil-led consortium.
• According to the report, tax revenues in Latin America and the Caribbean (LAC) also decreased as a share of GDP in 2023 amid a slowdown in economic activity in the region and a decline in global commodity prices. The report titled, Revenue Statistics in Latin America and the Caribbean 2025, released two weeks ago, shows that the average tax-to-GDP ratio in the LAC region was 21.3% in 2023.
• This was 0.2 percentage points (p.p.) below 2022 levels and slightly below pre-COVID levels of 21.4% in 2019. Tax-to-GDP ratios in the LAC region, according to the report, ranged from 11.6% in Guyana to 32.0% in Brazil in 2023.

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² Reuters

(Source: Kaieteur News)

• Brazil's central bank governor said on Monday, that the monetary tightening cycle is still open and that policymakers want to preserve their flexibility to digest incoming data and calibrate the appropriate terminal interest rate.
• "We are still discussing the hiking cycle," Gabriel Galipolo said at an event in Sao Paulo. "Flexibility means we are open." The bank's monetary policy committee meets later this month for its next rate decision, after raising the benchmark Selic rate by 50 basis points in May to 14.75%, its highest level in nearly two decades.
• Following last week’s release of official data showing strong first-quarter growth in Latin America’s largest economy, he noted the economy’s unexpected resilience and stressed that policymakers are seeking additional data to confirm whether a sustained trend is emerging.

(Source: Reuters)