• On April 8, 2025, the Energy Chamber of Trinidad & Tobago noted the news that the two Office of Foreign Assets Control (OFAC) special licenses for the Dragon and Cocuina fields have been revoked by the United States Government. The Chamber expressed that it is disappointing news, but not unexpected given the previous cancellation of other general and special licenses for companies working in Venezuela.
• The importation of pipeline gas from Venezuela for processing and onward sales to international markets as either liquefied natural gas (LNG) or petrochemicals remains a significant economic opportunity for Trinidad & Tobago.
• Trinidad is the largest exporter of LNG in Latin America and one of the world's largest exporters of ammonia and methanol, but the Caribbean Island was aiming to develop offshore fields in Venezuela and on the maritime border to counter its declining reserves and secure supply. The licenses, which have allowed Shell, BP, and Trinidad's National Gas Company to plan the projects as exemptions to the U.S. sanction regime on Venezuela, now have a May 27 deadline for the companies to wind down activities.
• It is, therefore, important that the government of Trinidad & Tobago continue to engage actively with both the government of the United States and Venezuela to find a mechanism to pursue this opportunity. 
• At the same time, there are significant opportunities to develop natural gas fields within Trinidad & Tobago’s exclusive economic zone, and these must also be pursued actively and urgently, according to the Chamber in its statement. 
• There are several fields, including Mento, Coconut, Ginger and Manatee, that are currently being developed and others, including Calypso, Blackjack and Onyx, where companies are working towards taking a final investment decision. All these opportunities should be pursued to help maintain and increase Trinidad & Tobago’s upstream gas production.

(Sources: Energy Chamber of Trinidad & Tobago and Reuters)

• The Caribbean is set to get a break from the extremely hot summers it has been having over the last two years. According to information from the Caribbean Climate Outlook Forum (CariCOF), based in Barbados, the annual heatwaves will most likely start from this month, April, gradually ramping up, but are unlikely to match those of 2023 and 2024.
• CariCOF attributes this to “El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) neutral conditions” in the Pacific Ocean, meaning that the ocean temperatures in that region are neither too hot nor too cold, which usually affects global climate patterns, combined with unusually warm waters around the Caribbean and temporarily cooler waters in the eastern Tropical North Atlantic.
• These variations in water temperature influence weather patterns, like how much rain or sunshine the region may expect over the next few months.
• It is also expected that April will experience high evaporation rates and frequent short, dry spells, which usually increase the chances of wildfires. Except for Aruba, Bonaire, and Curacao, CariCOF expects to see a rise in rainfall intensity as well as shower frequency, around May, in the Bahamas, Guianas, and Greater Antilles (Cuba, Hispaniola, Puerto Rico, and Jamaica, along with the Cayman Islands), or June in Belize and the Lesser Antilles, resulting in high to extremely high potential for flooding, flash floods, cascading hazards and associated impacts.
• “Episodes of Saharan dust intrusion will likely be frequent,” CariCOF added. The more frequent these are, the more dryness and heat, and the more erratic the occurrence of severe weather.
• In the latest drought situation, CariCOF said moderate, or worse, short-term drought has developed in the central and northern Bahamas, the Cayman Islands, parts of St. Croix, Sint Maarten and St. Bart’s. While long-term drought has evolved in southern Belize, the northern Dominican Republic, south-west Jamaica, St. Bart’s, St Vincent and the Grenadines, south-east Suriname and north-west Trinidad.

(Sources: CariCOF & Loop News Caribbean)

• President Donald Trump on Wednesday dropped new tariff rates on imports from most U.S. trade partners to 10.0% for 90 days to allow trade negotiations with those countries. Trump said “more than 75 Countries” contacted U.S. officials to negotiate after he unveiled his new tariffs last week.
• The president also said in a social media post that he was raising the tariffs imposed on imports from China to 125.0% “effective immediately” due to the “lack of respect that China has shown to the World’s Markets.” China, which is the U.S.’s third-largest trading partner, earlier Wednesday said it would increase its tariff rate for imports from the U.S. to 84.0%.
• Stock market indices rocketed sharply higher Wednesday on Trump’s announcement, reversing four days of losses. The benchmark S&P 500 index leapt by 7%, which puts it on track for its largest single-day gain in five years.
• Treasury Secretary Scott Bessett claimed to reporters that Trump had always intended to put the brakes on the wide-ranging tariffs the president announced last week. “This was his strategy all along,” Bessent said at the White House, where officials, including him, had denied for days that the tariffs would be suspended.

(Source: CNBC)

• U.S. Federal Reserve policymakers were nearly unanimous at their meeting last month that the U.S. economy faced risks of simultaneously higher inflation and slower growth, with some policymakers noting that "difficult tradeoffs" could lie ahead for the central bank, according to the minutes of the meeting.
• The March 18-19 session was held in the wake of initial Trump administration tariff plans that raised uncertainty about the economic outlook and led participants to favour a "cautious approach" that could opt to keep interest rates higher for longer if inflation were to persist or cut rates if a weakening economy needed more immediate attention.
• "Participants assessed that uncertainty around the economic outlook had increased, with almost all participants viewing risks to inflation as tilted to the upside and risks to employment as tilted to the downside," according to the minutes, which were released on Wednesday.
• Some at the meeting "observed that the (Federal Open Market) Committee may face difficult tradeoffs if inflation proved to be more persistent while the outlook for growth and employment weakened."
• Even from the more limited vantage point of March, Fed officials cut their forecasts for economic growth to 1.7% and from 2.1%, raised their inflation outlook for 2025 to 2.7% from 2.5%, and trimmed the number of projected quarter-percentage-point rate cuts for this year from three to two.
• As at mid-March, before the rout in stock prices that followed Trump's more recent tariff announcements, Fed officials were already concerned about the risks of "an abrupt repricing."

(Source: Reuters)

• According to the Bank of Jamaica (BOJ), Jamaica's Net International Reserves (NIR) reached a record high of US$5.79Bn at the end of March 2025, reflecting a 126% increase compared to March 2024.
• This growth in the NIR was primarily due to an 11.4% rise (US$594.46Mn) in total foreign assets, coupled with a 56.8% decrease (US$53.70Mn) in foreign liabilities.
• The increase in foreign assets was largely driven by a 26.4% growth in Securities (US$422.12Mn) and a 309.3% rise in Special Drawing Rights (SDRs), totaling US$179.80Mn. However, there was a slight decline of US$7.61Mn (0.2%) in Currency & Deposits.
• Jamaica’s March 2025 NIR remains relatively high, equating to 30.7 weeks of goods & services imports (26.4 weeks at the end of March 2024). At this level, the NIR is more than 2,5 times the international benchmark of 12 weeks of imports and should provide a solid buffer in the case of a major shock.
• Maintaining adequate reserves is one of the key pillars of underwriting and ensuring macroeconomic stability. The NIR reflects the difference between gross reserves and the country’s IMF loan debts. Gross reserves measure the total value of foreign exchange and monetary gold reserves, special drawing rights, IMF reserve positions, and other assets denominated in dollars.

 (Sources: BOJ and NCBCM Research)

• The Ministry of Agriculture, Fisheries and Mining has reiterated its commitment to the agricultural sector, with the allocation of $1.2Bn to the Production and Productivity Programme, to provide direct support to farmers.
• Portfolio Minister, Hon. Floyd Green, pointed out that the nation’s farmers are particularly deserving of support, following the many devastating situations the sector endured in 2024. He highlighted that last year began with a drought, and when farmers were expecting rain, Hurricane Beryl ravaged sections of southern Jamaica. This was followed by Tropical Storm Rafael in November and incessant rain.  
• To further bolster the resilience of the agricultural sector, the Minister said through the Jamaica Agricultural Commodities Regulatory Authority (JACRA), at least 10,000 new coffee seedlings will be distributed in the coming months, so coffee farmers can expand their yields and replace ageing crops.
• In addition to coffee, Minister Green said focus will be placed on various crops, including Irish potato, ginger, cassava, dasheen and lime. This will be accomplished through the Production and Productivity Programme.

(Source: JIS)

• Vice-President of Guyana, Dr Bharrat Jagdeo and Finance Minister Dr Ashni Singh, along with Central Bank Governor, Dr Gobind Ganga, on Monday April 7, 2025, met with the Chief Executive Officers and other representatives of commercial banks to discuss recent developments in the banking system, specifically concerning the market for foreign exchange.
• According to a press release, at the meeting, authorities noted the continued availability of adequate levels of foreign currency in the financial system as a whole to meet ongoing demand, despite occasional timing differences. These timing differences have resulted in some delays being encountered in the settlement of orders for foreign currency from time to time at some commercial banks.
• To ensure that pending requests for foreign currency are met on time, the decision was taken that a sum of US$100Mn will be injected into the market and distributed across all commercial banks.
• The injection is expected to provide immediate relief to the system in meeting the pending demand for foreign currency, while the temporary timing mismatches unwind themselves.
• Meanwhile, the government of Guayana remains closely engaged with the private sector, including the commercial banks, in the interest of ensuring that the market continues to function efficiently.

(Source: Guyana Chronicle)

• United States’ (U.S.) Defence Secretary Pete Hegseth has said China poses an ongoing threat to the Panama Canal, but that together, the U.S. and Panama will keep the key waterway secure.
• Speaking at a ribbon cutting for a new US-financed dock at the Vasco Nuñez de Balboa Naval Base after a meeting with Panama’s President José Raúl Mulino, Hegseth said the U.S. will not allow China or any other country to threaten the canal's operations. "To this end, the United States and Panama have done more in recent weeks to strengthen our defence and security cooperation than we have in decades," he said.
• Hegseth alluded to ports at either end of the canal that are controlled by a Hong Kong consortium, which is in the process of selling its controlling stake to another consortium, including BlackRock Inc.
• "China-based companies continue to control critical infrastructure in the canal area," Hegseth said. "That gives China the potential to conduct surveillance activities across Panama. This makes Panama and the United States less secure, less prosperous and less sovereign. And as President Donald Trump has pointed out, that situation is not acceptable."
• Hegseth met with Mulino for two hours on Tuesday (March 8, 2025) morning before heading to the naval base that previously had been the US Rodman Naval Station. The visit comes amid tensions over U.S. President Donald Trump's repeated assertions that the United States is being overcharged to use the Panama Canal and that China has influence over its operations. Panama has denied those allegations.
• The China concern was provoked by the Hong Kong consortium holding a 25-year lease on ports at either end of the canal. The Panamanian government announced that the lease was being audited and, late on Monday, concluded that there were irregularities.
• The Hong Kong consortium, however, had already announced that CK Hutchison would be selling its controlling stake in the ports to a consortium including BlackRock Inc., effectively putting the ports under American control once the sale is complete.

(Source: Yahoo News)

• Beijing, feeling boxed into a corner by the United States' intensifying tariff assault on China and any country that buys or assembles Chinese goods, is bracing for an economic war of attrition.
• Washington last week imposed import tariffs of at least 10% on almost the entire world, and much higher levies on countries such as Vietnam, where Chinese factories have been shifting production. This drew retaliation from China, followed by new threats of escalation from U.S. President Donald Trump.
• "Whoever surrenders first becomes the victim," said a Chinese policy adviser, asking for anonymity due to the topic's sensitivity. "It’s a matter of who can hold out longer."
• China has no great options, though. It will court other markets in Asia, Europe and the rest of the world, but this may not be much of an escape valve. Other countries have much smaller markets than the U.S., and local economies are also taking a hit from the tariffs. Many are also wary of allowing cheaper Chinese products in.
• Domestically, a currency devaluation would be the simplest way to cushion the tariffs' impact but that could trigger capital outflows, while also alienating trade partners China may try to court. China has so far allowed very limited yuan depreciation. More subsidies, export tax rebates or other forms of stimulus could be on the cards, but this also risks exacerbating industrial overcapacity and fueling more deflationary pressures.
• Analysts have advocated for years for policies that would boost domestic demand. However, despite Beijing's declarations, little has been done to meaningfully increase household consumption, given that the bold policy shifts that would be required could prove disruptive to the manufacturing sector in the short term.
• Hitting back with its own tariffs and export controls may not be very effective, given China ships to the U.S. about three times as much in goods than around US$160.0Bn it imports, but it may be the only option if Beijing believes it has a higher pain threshold than Washington has.
• So far China has responded to last week's additional 34% U.S. tariffs with a similar blanket counter-levy. As Trump threatened escalation with an extra 50% hike, Beijing vowed to "fight to the end". "China cannot inflict as much pain on the U.S. as it receives, since it runs the big trade surplus and, rare earths aside, still has more to lose from export controls," said Arthur Kroeber, head of research at Gavekal.

(Source: Reuters)

• As global markets plunge in the aftermath of the Trump administration’s sweeping new tariff plan and worries about a potential recession rise, investors are thinking the Federal Reserve may now move faster to cut interest rates.
• The shift has to do with the changing outlook for growth in the United States, according to analysts. While new tariffs could exacerbate inflation in the short term, it’s possible that the Fed may support the economy by lowering interest rates rather than keeping rates restrictive to combat elevated price pressures. On Friday, Fed Chair Jerome Powell said the central bank will not rush any policy moves: “It feels like we don’t need to be in a hurry. We’re going to have to wait and see how this plays out before we start to make adjustments.”
• But the outlook remains fluid. “A tariff-induced economic downturn may be enough” to prompt the Fed to cut despite elevated inflation, explains Dominic Pappalardo, chief multi-asset strategist at Morningstar Investment Management. That would be a departure from the Fed’s typical inflation playbook, which calls for restrictive policy to temper price pressures.
• Treasury yields have been falling alongside stocks as investors reduce their expectations for growth down the line, with the yield on the 10-year Treasury note falling below 4% on Friday. “The market is clearly more concerned with economic growth than they are with inflation from the tariffs,” says Michael Arone, chief investment strategist at State Street Global Advisors. “I’m sure the Fed would share that concern.”
• Bond futures markets are pricing in an 85% chance of more than three rate cuts before the end of the year, according to the CME FedWatch Tool. That’s up from expectations of between one and two cuts before the tariff announcement. If the Fed cuts four times, it would bring the target federal-funds rate down to a range of 3.25%-3.50%—2 full percentage points lower than its peak last year.
• Traders now see a roughly 30% chance that the central bank cuts rates at its May meeting, compared with the 22% odds given on Thursday. Futures trading was volatile on Friday, with odds of a May cut rising as high as 40% in the early afternoon. A June cut remains seen as most likely, given odds of 70%.

(Source: Morningstar)