• The number of Americans filing new applications for unemployment benefits fell to a seven-month low last week, suggesting layoffs remained low, though the labour market is struggling to generate enough jobs for those out of work, amid the economic uncertainty.
• The absence of labour market deterioration in the weekly jobless claims report from the Labour Department on Wednesday argued against the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates again next month, with inflation still elevated, economists said.
• The U.S. central bank's Beige Book report on Wednesday said employment decreased slightly in mid-November but noted "more districts reported contacts limiting headcount using hiring freezes, replacement-only hiring and attrition than through layoffs." It described economic activity as "little changed" since October.
• "Fed officials would need to see a significant weakening in labour market conditions to lower rates in December," said Matthew Martin, a senior U.S. economist at Oxford Economics. "There are some signs of softening in various private sector metrics, but that's not the signal coming from the jobless claims data."
• Initial claims for state unemployment benefits dropped 6,000 to a seasonally adjusted 216,000 for the week ended Nov. 22, the lowest level since April. Economists polled by Reuters had forecast 225,000 claims for the latest week.
• Economists say President Donald Trump's aggressive trade and immigration policies had created an environment where businesses are reluctant to lay off or hire more workers, leading to what they and policymakers call a "no hire, no fire" labour market.
• However, some companies, including Amazon, are stepping up job cuts as they integrate artificial intelligence into some roles. Economists expect these job cuts could show up in the claims data next year, though filings have not always in the past increased in tandem with announced layoffs.

(Source: Reuters)

• U.S. economic activity was little changed in recent weeks, though employment was weaker in about half of the Federal Reserve's (Fed) 12 districts and consumer spending declined, the U.S. central bank in its latest "Beige Book" report said on Wednesday, November 26, 2025. This is likely reinforcing concerns about the job market as the next interest rate decision nears. The report entails a compendium of survey results, interviews, and other qualitative data from its 12 regional banks.
• Published two weeks ahead of each Fed policy meeting, the report is meant to help central bankers assess the economy's health with timelier, and often more colourful, insight than is available in the official statistics.
• With the data vacuum left by the record 43-day government shutdown that extended into mid-November, the Beige Book should get more weight than usual in the deliberations among deeply divided Fed policymakers, following their decision last month to cut rates by a quarter of a percentage point for the second consecutive meeting. The policy rate now stands in the 3.75%-4.00% range.
• The data flow has resumed since the shutdown ended, but most of the reports issued over the past two weeks have been significantly dated, covering the period just before the shutdown began on October 1, and have offered almost no fresh insight into the health of the economy.
• One of the most current indicators, however, suggests the job market remains in a stable, gradually softening state.
• New claims for unemployment benefits fell last week to the lowest level since April, though the ranks of those remaining on benefits beyond a first week of assistance have plateaued near the highest level in about four years. Together, the figures point to no notable increase in layoffs despite a wave of job-cut announcements from big employers like Amazon, though those out of work are finding it harder to land a new job.
• Overall, interest rate futures markets reflect a high probability of another quarter-percentage-point reduction in borrowing costs at the Fed's December 9-10 meeting. Whatever the decision at next month's meeting, it is likely to be made over the objections of several policymakers and will come alongside a fresh batch of forecasts from Fed officials that will show how inclined they are to bring rates down further next year.

(Source: Reuters)

• Jamaica’s economy grew by an estimated 4.6% during the July to September 2025 quarter (Q3 2025), compared with the corresponding period in 2024, according to the Planning Institute of Jamaica (PIOJ). This is above the PIOJ’s previous expectation for Q3 growth in the range of 2%-3%. The estimated outturn largely reflected recovery from the low production experienced in Q3 2024 due to the passage of Hurricane Beryl, which caused damage estimated at J$56.7Bn and led to the 3.5% GDP decline in Q3 2024.
• For the quarter, both the goods-producing and services industries recorded growth. The goods-producing industry is estimated to have expanded by 10%, driven by increased output across all industries, while the services industry recorded a modest growth of 3%.
• For the goods-producing sector, the Agriculture, Forestry and Fishing industry grew by 23.9% based on the PIOJ’s production index, reflecting the full recovery from the effects of Hurricane Beryl. Higher production was recorded for all nine crop groups, while higher output was recorded for traditional export crops, and animal farming also increased. Mining and quarrying also grew by 3.8%, reflecting higher output in the bauxite and alumina and quarrying sub-industries. The manufacturing industry increased by an estimated 4.4% due to higher output in the food, beverages, and tobacco and other manufacturing sub-industries, while the construction industry was estimated to have grown by 4.8% reflecting estimated growth in both the building construction and other construction components of the industry.
• Meanwhile, the growth in the service industries was led by a 6.6% increase in the electricity, water supply and waste management industry, reflecting higher electricity and water consumption stemming from the recovery from the damage caused by Hurricane Beryl. The transport and storage industry grew by 5.2%. This was driven by an increase in the air transport subcomponent, reflecting a 5.6% upturn in passenger movement and growth in maritime transport activities, reflecting a 12.6% increase in total cargo handled. Finally, the accommodation and food service activities industry is estimated to have grown by 3.6%.
• Overall, for the first nine months of 2025, Jamaica’s real gross domestic product (GDP) was estimated to have increased by 2.4%. This reflected a higher real value added of 5% for the goods-producing industry and 1.6% for the services industry.

(Sources: JIS and PIOJ)

• Jamaica’s economy is bracing for its steepest quarterly decline in years as the aftermath of Hurricane Melissa hits key sectors, though officials project a return to growth in the final quarter of 2026. The Planning Institute of Jamaica (PIOJ) on Tuesday (November 25) forecast a contraction of 11% to 13% for the October to December 2025 quarter, with the full fiscal year 2025/2026 expected to record a 3 to 6 per cent decline in overall economic activity.
• Speaking during the PIOJ’s hybrid quarterly press briefing, Director General Dr Wayne Henry said the island’s economy had been on track for steady growth prior to the Category 5 hurricane. “Growth of 3.1% was estimated for the first half of the current fiscal year, and this was expected to continue throughout the second half,” he noted. However, Hurricane Melissa’s passage has altered that trajectory, placing substantial downward pressure on nearly every sector of the economy. The storm caused extensive damage to housing, electricity networks, roads, water supply infrastructure, and productive assets.
• Agriculture emerged as one of the hardest-hit sectors. Dr Henry highlighted that the seven most affected parishes account for 74% of land used for domestic crop production and a significant share of animal and export crop farming. Losses include farmlands, livestock, fishing equipment, and access roads.
• The accommodation and food services industry is also facing major disruptions. Nearly 89% of the island’s hotel room stock is concentrated in the parishes most affected by the hurricane, leading to temporary closures and restricted operations. This is compounded by the November 2025 U.S. travel advisory, which warns American visitors to reconsider travel to Jamaica, further reducing arrivals.
• Furthermore, critical infrastructure challenges extend to electricity, water, waste management, and transportation. “Full recovery of electricity generation and distribution, particularly in western parishes, is likely to be significantly delayed due to limited accessibility to some communities,” Dr Henry said. Restoration of the water supply is also dependent on electricity to power the pumping stations.
• The construction sector has experienced work stoppages on major projects, while damage to information and communication technology, roads, airports, and shipping ports is expected to reduce services and sales across multiple industries.
• Dr Henry warned that the October to December 2025 quarter could record Jamaica’s worst quarterly economic performance since the COVID-19 pandemic’s April to June 2020 downturn. Still, he offered cautious optimism for recovery. “The economy is expected to return to growth in the October to December 2026 quarter,” he said, signalling a potential rebound once repair and reconstruction efforts gain momentum.

(Sources: PIOJ & Caribbean National Weekly)

• Brazil's foreign direct investment (FDI) inflows through October have already surpassed last year's total, central bank data showed on Tuesday, as the government expects FDI to reach a record high this year.
• The improvement in FDI, considered a higher-quality form of financing because it reflects long-term investment in productive activity, should help offset a worsening current account balance in Latin America's largest economy.
• Year-to-date FDI reached US$74.26Bn after a higher-than-expected inflow in October, the central bank said, up 8.8% from a year earlier and above the US$74.09Bn recorded in all of 2024. The country drew US$10.94Bn in foreign direct investments last month, while economists polled by Reuters expected US$6.30Bn.
• Vice President Geraldo Alckmin said on Monday that Brazil was on track to set an FDI record this year. The country's highest annual inflow so far was in 2011, at US$102.43Bn.
• On the other hand, Brazil posted a US$5.12Bn current account deficit in October, wider than the US$4.8Bn expected in the Reuters poll. The year-to-date shortfall hit US$62.07Bn, a 20.5% year-on-year increase.
• The deteriorating scenario stems mainly from a weaker trade surplus, as imports have grown faster than exports amid resilient economic activity despite restrictive interest rates aimed at taming inflation.
• Over the 12 months through October, the current account deficit stood at 3.48% of gross domestic product (GDP) but was fully covered by FDI at 3.63% of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) - something that had not been seen since January.

(Source: Reuters)

• Former governor of the Central Bank of Barbados has proposed that the region import more a move that upends decades of thought in economics on managing developing countries like Barbados.
• Dr. Delisle Worrell suggested increased imports as part of bold policy reforms focused on currency stability, arguing that only these measures will unlock sustained foreign investment and lift the Caribbean out of decades-long economic stagnation. However, in his latest monthly newsletter, Dr Worrell, said: “The patriotic sentiment that Caribbean countries import too much is at odds with the reality that our standard of living in this region is made possible by imports. The fact is, the greater the level of imports, the higher the standard of living.
• “In order to increase the GDP of Caribbean economies, we must therefore increase our capacity to import. That means investing in tourist accommodation and services, exploiting oil, renewable energy and mineral resources, hosting more international business, financial and educational services, and investing in rum and other manufacturing facilities, all with a view to securing more foreign currency for imports.”
• Dr Worrell contended that foreign earnings depend entirely on the Caribbean’s capacity to produce, asserting that the export markets served by the region are so large that they can easily absorb whatever volume of goods and services Caribbean countries can offer.
• “In order to increase capacity to earn foreign currency,” said the author of several economic publications, “the Caribbean needs investment, the largest share of which must be financed in US dollars to pay for imported construction materials, equipment, supplies, fuel, vehicles, and other requirements. Countries can attract this needed foreign finance insofar as they provide a competitive environment for investment.”
• He noted that, in economic terms, import dependence is a structural characteristic of small economies like those found in the Caribbean, but this should not be viewed as a weakness, but rather as an inherent feature of the economy, similar to the country’s time zone.
• The economist recommended that new capacity be developed through investments and financing in foreign currency to cover import costs. “The most important policies our governments can pursue to promote investment are - maintaining a stable and predictable exchange rate for the domestic currency; and prudent management of public finances to ensure the country remains creditworthy in the financial markets of New York and London.
• “With a stable exchange rate and an investment-grade rating for government foreign debt, countries are assured of foreign investor interest in the internationally competitive sectors of the economy. The final hurdle for potential foreign investors is often the efficiency of the public sector.”
• Pointing to robust increases in foreign direct investment as the barometer of a country’s progress, Dr Worrell said: “An increase in foreign direct investment across the region would be the surest indicator that Caribbean countries are lifting themselves out of the economic doldrums in which they have been stuck for many years.”

(Source: Barbados Today)

• Early signs on Japan's annual wage negotiations for next year point to another round of solid pay hikes despite profit pressure from U.S. tariffs, bolstering the case for the Bank of Japan (BOJ) to raise interest rates further. The wage outlook has drawn renewed attention after BOJ Governor Kazuo Ueda said he wanted "a bit more data" on the initial momentum of next year's wage talks - notably whether firms hit by U.S. tariffs would keep lifting pay.
• Labour unions have already made clear they will again demand bumper pay hikes. Sustained wage growth would underpin private consumption, giving the BOJ confidence to raise rates without derailing Japan's economic recovery. Despite hefty increases in recent years, real wage growth has remained negative as core consumer inflation has held above the BOJ's 2% target.
• Rengo, Japan's largest labour union umbrella group, with 7 million members, is seeking wage hikes of 5% or more in 2026. That is what Rengo asked for in 2025, resulting in the biggest pay hike in 34 years. The top union for automakers, among the industries hit hardest by U.S. tariffs, also has no plans to scale back its wage demands at labour talks for next year, despite profit squeezes.
• Japan's annual wage negotiations typically start with unions drafting demands late in the closing year, followed by formal talks early the next year, with settlements announced in March. Companies, to be sure, may not heed union demands on 2026 wages as the hit from higher U.S. levies on shipments of Japanese goods is likely to intensify in the coming months, clouding the outlook for the export-reliant economy.
• But so far, manufacturers are holding up, with a Reuters poll this month showing sentiment hit a nearly four-year high in November, buoyed by softness in the yen and solid orders. A tight labour market is also likely to pressure companies to stick with generous pay hikes. A separate Reuters survey this month showed 72% of respondents intend to raise wages next year at about the same rate as in 2025.
• The strain from labour shortages is particularly acute in the restaurant industry. Gastropub chain operator Watami said it will offer multi-year hikes averaging 7% annually from 2026 for about 1,200 full-time employees in Japan. A November survey by the Japan Centre for Economic Research showed economists projecting that wage hikes would average 4.88% next year. That is higher than the 4.74% estimated in January for this year's wage talks, which resulted in a 5.52% increase

(Source: Reuters)

• Britain's main minimum wage rate will rise by 4.1% to 12.71 pounds (US$16.67) an hour next April to keep up with average pay, the government said on Tuesday, despite complaints from some employers that this will push up prices.
• Britain's minimum wage is the second-highest in Europe relative to average pay and has risen by more than 60% since 2019 as successive governments sought to lift it to two-thirds of median hourly earnings. Finance minister Rachel Reeves said the new increase, which follows a 6.7% rise earlier this year, was needed "so that those on low incomes are properly rewarded for their hard work"
• The increase will benefit 2.4 million workers aged 21 and over, while a further 300,000 apprentices and workers aged under 21 will get a rise of 6.0%-8.5% as the government continues to phase out lower minimum wages for these groups. However, the increase drew criticism from Britain's hospitality industry, which said it would lead to higher prices.
• Britain had the highest inflation rate of any major advanced economy at 3.6% in October, driven in part by faster wage growth since the COVID-19 pandemic. While the Bank of England expects inflation to return to its 2% target by mid-2027, many of its policymakers think wage growth faster than about 3% will make hitting that goal harder, due to persistently weak productivity growth.

(Source: Reuters)

• Driven by robust topline performance, Seprod Limited (SEPROD’s) earnings surged by 95.3% for the quarter ended September 30, 2025 (Q3 2025).
• Revenue came in at J$37.87Bn, up 7.9% year-over-year (YoY), reflecting growth across the major business segments for the regional manufacturer and distributor. The company benefited from a J$1.24Bn gain on investment property and improved performance in the dairy manufacturing operations. Notably, the dairy operations benefited from $700Mn investment in increased packaging and processing capacity, which is expected to increase production output and productivity, going forward.
• Direct costs grew faster, up 10.5% to J$27.96Bn. Consequently, while there was a 1.2% uptick in gross profits to $9.91Bn, gross margins decreased to 26.2% from 27.9%.
• The group also had a 161.6% increase in other income to $$1.44Bn, and continued easing of operating expenses (opex), which resulted in an improvement in operating income (+27.5%). Notably, opex growth is cooling relative to the first two quarters of the financial year. The slowdown reflects Seprod’s ongoing strategy to capture synergies from recent acquisitions and strengthen cost management strategies across the Group. Consequently, Q3 operating margins improved from 6.8% to 8.0% for the YoY.
• Meanwhile, Q3 finance costs grew (+9.6%), due to higher debt associated with strategic investments and expansion. Notably, Seprod’s subsidiary, ASBH, increased its stake in Caribbean Producers (Jamaica) Limited (CPJ) from 45% to 75% effective December 31, 2024. This involved a share swap, not borrowing, but its debt and finance costs were ultimately consolidated in Seprod’s financials.
• Nonetheless, Q3 2025 net profit jumped to J$1.62Bn compared to J$653.8Mn in Q3 2024, and net profit margins increased to 4.3% from 2.4%. However, despite the solid quarterly performance, for the nine months ended September 30, 2025 (9M 2025), net profit saw a marginal increase of 2.8%. The outturn reflects elevated operating and finance expenses in both the first and second quarters, despite Seprod's robust Q3 earnings.
• Looking ahead, the impact of Hurricane Melissa on Seprod’s operations is expected to be mixed, reflecting the broad diversity of the Group.  In the near term, the company’s strategy includes shifting a portion of its distribution efforts toward the retail trade, particularly within business segments that have traditionally been concentrated among large customers in the tourism and hospitality sectors. The company also noted that it will continue to pursue enhancements in cost efficiency as part of its ongoing efforts to strengthen profitability.
• Seprod’s stock price has declined by 6.7% year-to-date, closing at $81.34 as at Tuesday, November 25, 2025. At this price, the stock trades at a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 23.3x, which is higher than the Main Market Distribution and Manufacturing Sector’s average of 17.3x.

(Sources: Seprod Financial Release & NCBCM Research)

• During its meetings on November 20^th and 21^st, the Bank of Jamaica’s (BOJ’s) Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) deliberated on its monetary policy stance in the context of the post-hurricane environment and expressed its concern regarding the devastation caused by Hurricane Melissa and the considerable hardship and dislocation being suffered by many Jamaicans.
• The MPC determined that preserving a stable macroeconomic environment will be essential to the recovery effort at the individual, household and national levels. In this regard, the BOJ noted that it remains committed to ensuring that the inflationary effects of the hurricane are managed to limit the hardships on vulnerable groups and to facilitate the conditions necessary for long-term economic recovery.
• With this in mind, the Committee decided unanimously to hold the policy rate at 5.75% per annum and take special pre-emptive measures to preserve relative stability in the foreign exchange (FX) market, which will enable inflation to return to the target range by 2027.
• The decision to hold the policy rate reflects expectations that headline inflation will rise sharply above the 4%–6% target in the near term and that core inflation will also exceed the range by mid-2026. Additionally, the government's plans to temporarily suspend fiscal rules will increase spending and add to demand pressures. Inflation risks are, however, tilted upward due to the possibility of stronger-than-expected reconstruction demand, higher inflation expectations and potential supply constraints, though a slower-than-anticipated recovery in domestic demand could ease pressures.
• Meanwhile, the special pre-emptive measures in the FX market contemplate the need for increased imports to support the rehabilitation and reconstruction efforts. The MPC noted that the Bank’s strong international reserves reinforce its ability to support the foreign exchange market. In this regard, the Bank has sold US$210Mn to the market since the passage of Hurricane Melissa on October 28^th. In the near term, the Bank will supply foreign currency directly to certain energy-sector entities and will take proactive steps to maintain sufficient foreign currency liquidity in the broader market, including bringing back advance notices for intervention sales.
• The next policy decision announcement is scheduled for December 18, 2025. BMI expects the BOJ to maintain its policy rate at 5.75% in 2025 and at 5.50% in 2026 in response to increased domestic price pressures. That said, Jamaica’s monetary authorities have successfully stabilised domestic inflation expectations by implementing a credible inflation targeting monetary policy regime in 2020, a tailwind for post-storm price stability. As such, BMI analysts hold a more optimistic outlook than the BOJ, with analysts anticipating that core inflation is less likely to increase. This supports their belief that underlying inflationary pressures will remain subdued and will return to the BOJ's target range by the first quarter of 2026.

(Sources: BOJ and BMI, a Fitch Solutions Company)