• Japan must keep raising interest rates and tighten fiscal policy as the economy is already in "great shape," former central bank chief Haruhiko Kuroda said, warning that Premier Sanae Takaichi's big spending plan could stoke an inflationary upswing.
• With the economy enjoying solid growth and steady wage gains, the Bank of Japan (BoJ) can probably raise interest rates about twice a year in 2026 and 2027, said Kuroda. "When Abenomics was deployed, Japan was suffering from deflation and a strong yen. Now, Japan is experiencing inflation and a weak yen. Japan needs to move toward tighter fiscal and monetary policy," he added.
• According to Kuroda, "The BoJ must gradually raise interest rates towards levels deemed neutral to the economy. Fiscal policy must be tightened, too," The remarks highlight how Japan’s evolving economic landscape has driven a striking divergence in policy thinking between Kuroda, Abenomics’ most ardent architect, and its current torchbearer, Takaichi.
• With inflation above its 2% target for years and a tight job market pushing up wages, the BoJ exited Kuroda's stimulus in 2024 and raised rates several times, including in December. Fiscal policy, by contrast, is likely to stay expansionary. A fan of Abenomics, Takaichi has ramped up spending and pledged to suspend by two years an 8% sales tax on food to cushion the blow to households from rising living costs.
• Kuroda warned that such expansionary fiscal policy could backfire by fuelling inflationary pressure and pushing up bond yields. "It makes sense for the government to support innovation to boost long term potential growth. But spending money to cushion the blow from rising living costs would be counterproductive as doing so would fuel inflation," he said.
• The BoJ may see scope to raise its key policy rate, currently at 0.75%, to around 1.5-1.75% in coming years if the economy can sustain its momentum.

(Source: Reuters)

• Richmond Fed President Tom Barkin said Wednesday, February 25, 2026, that the back-and-forth on President Trump's tariffs adds to uncertainty for businesses and the economy.
• "Businesses still feel that heightened uncertainty, and that has something to do with why you see such a low hiring rate and why people aren't leaning into investments the way that they might," said Barkin. "Hard to know where that's going from here, but I'm not seeing a big pickup on the job growth side."
• Aside from tariffs, Barkin is "cautiously optimistic" that inflation will continue to come down this year. Meanwhile, on the job front, he noted that he has been reassured by the past few jobs reports. "I've been reassured by the labour market, also by the demand side, which has stayed relatively healthy, and I think that's the question is whether you need to put more in there on the rate side to help bolster demand," he said.
• The question is whether the Fed needs to cut rates further to boost the demand side amid low hiring. The Fed cut interest rates three times at the end of last year to bolster the job market.

(Source: Yahoo Finance)

• Fitch BMI expects the Bank of Jamaica (BOJ) to hold the policy rate at 5.50% at its March 31, 2026, meeting. The central bank maintained a cautious, mildly hawkish bias, delivering only one cut in 2025 in May 2025 and this prudence is expected to extend through 2026 as the BOJ continues balancing macroeconomic stability, policy credibility and anchored inflation expectations.
• Against this backdrop, the baseline is that policymakers will assess the impact of February’s rate cut alongside expansionary fiscal conditions, rather than risk undermining recent gains in price stability.
• Although the February 2026 easing in the policy rate occurred earlier than previously expected, January’s softer inflation outturn indicated that the inflation shock from Hurricane Melissa was more contained than initially feared. This allowed the BOJ to provide targeted support to a storm-affected economy without materially worsening near-term inflation dynamics.
• However, Fitch BMI expects the policy rate to close 2026 at 5.50%. This projection considers that price pressures will strengthen through 2026, reflecting reduced productive capacity and fiscal stimulus effects.
• Overall, inflation is forecast to average 6.1% in 2026, reinforcing expectations that the BOJ will pause further easing to preserve macroeconomic stability and limit upside risks to inflation. However, this is contrast with the BOJ's MPC who expects inflation to generally track within the target over the next eight quarters, although it anticipates temporary breaches of the upper limit in the June and September 2026 quarters, before inflation is projected to return to the 4.0%–6.0% target range by end-December 2026. This improved profile reflects a moderation in projected second-round price effects and a decline in private-sector inflation expectations toward more normal levels.
• Notably, the Jamaican dollar is expected to remain broadly stable, ending 2026 near JMD162/US$, compared with JMD159/US$ at end-2025. Currency resilience in the immediate post-hurricane period reflected the Central Banks’s FX market support, elevated domestic interest rates, and moderating US dollar strength, all of which helped dampen inflation pass-through. Still, Fitch BMI believes that rate cuts could reintroduce depreciation pressures, posing risks to sustaining favourable inflation trends.
• Risks to the outlook are two-sided. Further moderation in inflation in February 2026, driven by weaker domestic demand and contained imported prices, could create room for additional easing, while severe weather shocks during the year could push inflation above projections and prompt the BoJ to adopt a more restrictive policy stance than currently expected.

(Source: BMI, A Fitch Solutions Company)

• The Brydens Group has announced it is in the final stages of construction of a new regional warehouse in Trinidad and Tobago (T&T), a facility designed to anchor its distribution strategy across the southern Caribbean.
• David Franco, Regional Business Development Director for premium beverages at the Brydens Group, said this move is expected to drive operational efficiencies from source to consumer and add value for its strong partnerships with “world-class brands.” This infrastructure development coincides with the announcement that the group’s subsidiary, Stansfeld Scott Barbados, has been appointed the official importer and exclusive distributor for a range of brands within the Moët Hennessy portfolio in Barbados.
• The agreement includes iconic brands such as Veuve Clicquot, Dom Perignon, Ruinart, Krug, Armand de Brignac, Chandon, Glenmorangie, Belvedere, Ardbeg, Terrazas de los Andes, Cheval des Andes, Cloudy Bay, Numanthia, Volcan and Eminente. Franco further stated that the company’s strategic focus remains on infrastructure development and acquisitions.
• In early 2024, the Brydens Group acquired Stansfeld Scott Barbados, the largest beverage distribution company on the island, in a deal that included six wine world retail locations. In the same year, the Group also acquired Caribbean Producers Jamaica (CPJ) and its subsidiary CPJ St Lucia. While these companies already maintained a relationship with Moët Hennessy, the partnership was expanded under the Brydens Group’s stewardship to include Glenmorangie, Ardbeg, WhistlePig and Chandon sparkling wines deepening the premium spirits and wines offering in both markets.
• Just last year, A.S. Bryden & Sons (Guyana) Inc. launched operations, securing the distribution rights for the core Diageo portfolio. This strategic move successfully extended the Group’s premium beverage footprint into one of the region’s most significant high-growth markets.
• Expansion into premium beverages should boost earnings via superior margins. Nevertheless, high price elasticity presents a risk; if excise taxes rise or luxury tourism declines, the company may face cash flow constraints due to an accumulation of high-cost, slow-moving inventory.
• A.S. Bryden is listed on the TTSE, where it closed Tuesday’s trading session at TT$1.42. At this price, it trades at a 39.9x P/E multiple, which is above the TTSE Manufacturing Industry Median of 14.6x

(Sources: Trinidad & Tobago Guardian & NCBCM Research)

• Guyana’s Natural Resource Fund (NRF) received almost US$10Mn per day in oil revenues in January, as payments for the last crude cargoes produced and sold in 2025 were deposited into the account.
• According to the Bank of Guyana’s latest NRF report, the Fund received US$110.9Mn (GY$23Bn) in royalties in January. That sum represents the statutory 2% royalty on the value of all crude oil produced and sold in the fourth quarter of 2025. In addition, the Fund received US$184.1Mn (GY$38Mn) in profit oil revenues. Together, the inflows totalled about US$295Mn (GY$61Bn) for the month. Spread across 31 days, that equates to nearly US$10Mn daily flowing into the State’s oil account.
• The January receipts represent payments for three lifts of crude produced in 2025, as the final cargoes for that year. The individual payments amounted to US$60.9Mn, US$62.1Mn and US$61.1Mn.
• For 2025 overall, the NRF recorded more than US$2.1Bn (GY$443Bn) from government oil sales, over US$330Mn (GY$69Bn) in royalties, and US$15Mn (GY$3Bn) in signature bonus payments. A US$15Mn signing bonus was paid in 2025 by TotalEnergies, QatarEnergy and Petronas following their award of Block S4. Each company paid its share separately.
• Guyana expects 309 oil lifts in 2026, up from 260 in 2025, with each cargo averaging about one million barrels. Based on the government’s projected share of those cargoes, oil revenues to the State are estimated at approximately US$2.79Bn this year, including payments for oil sales and royalties.
• ExxonMobil produced an average of 716,000 barrels of oil per day (b/d) in 2025 and increased capacity to more than 900,000 b/d in the later months. Overall, Guyana, now Latin America’s newest oil producer, has rapidly become one of the region’s largest, driven by investments from the ExxonMobil-led consortium, which includes Hess, now owned by Chevron, and CNOOC.

(Source: OilNow Guyana)

• As betting markets had expected, the Supreme Court of the US (SCOTUS) struck down President Donald Trump’s ‘reciprocal’ tariffs, which he justified by emergency powers under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA). Since SCOTUS’s decision, Trump has raised Section 122 tariffs on all imports from 10% (announced on February 20) to 15%, effective February 24, 2025, in line with expectations for renewed tariff volatility after the ruling.
• The good news is that Trump can legally go no further under Section 122 than the 15% he has now imposed. The bad news is that uncertainty will remain elevated as the Section 122 tariffs are subject to review by Congress after 150 days. Meanwhile, Trump retains options under Sections 232 and 301 to impose further tariffs and could seek to build out a patchwork of sector‑specific measures to offset the temporary nature of the Section 122 tariffs.
• Notwithstanding those open questions, the developments so far warrant a fresh estimate of the growth impact on Asian economies of these tariff changes. The chief result is that while Emerging Markets (EMs) are generally better off in terms of GDP growth, most Developed Markets (DMs) are slightly worse off. The main reason is that exports from DMs such as Singapore and Australia now face a higher 15% tariff rate under Section 122, compared with the 10% ‘reciprocal’ tariffs under IEEPA. By contrast, tariffs on exports from EMs including India and Vietnam are now lower.
• BMI analyst presents three possible impact scenarios, depending on how much of the tariff savings are passed on to consumers, and the degree to which consumers respond to those savings by buying more imported goods. Conservatively, the agency believes the growth impact on Asian economies will fall short of the ‘100% passthrough, high elasticity’ scenario.
• Asian governments’ reactions introduce an additional downside risk to these growth estimates. Most regional governments have responded cautiously, emphasising continuity of existing tariff outcomes while privately flagging legal uncertainty around trade deals struck with Trump under IEEPA. Japan and Singapore have framed the Section 122 tariffs as largely preserving previously agreed 15% ceilings, but both have sought clarity on implementation and refunds, underscoring lingering uncertainty. Similarly, Jamaica now faces higher tariffs of 15% up from 10%.
• By contrast, South Korea and India have stressed that earlier deals rested on a legal foundation that no longer exists, raising the risk of delayed investment decisions and renewed bilateral negotiations. China has gone further, arguing that arrangements derived from unlawful tariffs lack legitimacy altogether. Taken together, these reactions point to a risk that policy uncertainty persists for longer than currently. This would weigh on corporate confidence and dampen the pass-through from lower tariffs to trade volumes, particularly in export‑dependent Asian DMs.

(Source: BMI, A Fitch Solutions Company)

• Britain does not expect U.S. President Donald Trump's new global tariff of 15% to impact the "majority" of a UK-U.S. economic deal that was announced last year, according to Prime Minister Keir Starmer's spokesman. The spokesman said Britain's Trade Minister, Peter Kyle, had spoken with Jamieson Greer, the U.S. Trade Representative, to highlight his concerns about the uncertainty this would cause for businesses.
• Britain is at risk of becoming one of the worst hit countries after the U.S. Supreme Court’s tariff decision and Trump’s response. Starmer's government had negotiated a lower reciprocal tariff rate at 10% after reaching a deal with the U.S. last year, but Trump’s promise to reimpose higher levies at 15% means businesses may now face even higher duties.
• Starmer's spokesman said the government expects discussions between British and U.S. officials to continue this week and he refused to rule out the possibility of retaliatory tariffs. "We don’t expect this ruling to impact the majority of trade" under the UK-U.S. economic deal, including tariffs agreed on steel, pharmaceuticals and cars, the spokesman said.
• Britain will be among the countries most impacted by Trump's latest announcement, according to the think tank Global Trade Alert, while Brazil, China and India stand to benefit the most. Starmer's spokesman said businesses do not want "to see a trade war", but he said "nothing is off the table at this stage".

(Source: Reuters)

• Against the background of the falloff in consumer prices in January, the Bank of Jamaica’s (BOJ) Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) reduced the policy rate at its meetings on February 19 and 20, 2026.
• The Committee assessed that Hurricane Melissa’s direct impact on inflation was less severe than initially anticipated, as agricultural supplies improved faster than expected and mild exchange-rate appreciation helped to ease price pressures.
• Against this improved inflation outturn and outlook, the MPC unanimously reduced the policy rate by 25 basis points to 5.50%, effective February 24, 2026, while signalling it would remain proactive in preserving relative stability in the foreign exchange market.
• The MPC expects inflation to generally track within the target over the next eight quarters, although it anticipates temporary breaches of the upper limit in the June and September 2026 quarters, before inflation is projected to return to the 4.0%–6.0% target range by end-December 2026. This improved profile reflects a moderation in projected second-round price effects and a decline in private-sector inflation expectations toward more normal levels.
• The easing inflation backdrop was supported by official data showing headline inflation of 3.9% in January 2026, down from 4.5% in December 2025 and below the Bank’s projection, largely due to declining food prices as agricultural conditions normalised and the exchange rate strengthened modestly. Core inflation (excluding agricultural food and fuel) also eased to 3.9% in January 2026 from 4.2% in December 2025, signalling broader disinflation momentum beyond food.
• While the MPC characterised risks to the inflation outlook as balanced, it flagged downside risks from weaker-than-expected domestic demand recovery and upside risks from adverse weather, higher-than-projected inflation expectations, and stronger domestic spending tied to post-hurricane recovery. The MPC also noted that the temporary suspension of the fiscal rule could enable larger fiscal deficits over the next three years, potentially adding demand-side pressure and contributing to second-round inflation effects if productive capacity becomes constrained.

(Source: BOJ)

• For the December quarter, Palace Amusement’s (PAL’s) performance was materially impacted by the passage of Hurricane Melissa in October 2025, alongside generally softer cinema traffic. These headwinds widened net losses to J$87.82Mn, compared with a loss of J$26.41Mn in the corresponding period last year.
• Revenue contracted sharply by 43.3% year over year to $196.86Mn, reflecting softer cinema attendance and the closure of its Montego Bay location following hurricane damage. The location remains closed as Palace continues to assess the damage and work with its Insurers to settle claims.
• With topline performance under pressure, Palace recorded a gross loss of $23.58Mn. Administrative expenses of J$49.49Mn further deepened the operating deficit to J$73.02Mn. Elevated finance costs of J$14.80Mn compounded the weakness, weighing further on bottom-line results for the quarter.
• The weak December quarter exacerbated year-to-date performance. For the six months ended December 2025, net losses widened to J$115.03Mn, compared with J$62.86Mn in the prior year. Revenue declined 20.1% to J$553.37Mn, while operating losses expanded to J$86.14Mn, underscoring the sustained drag from hurricane-related disruption and softer film traffic.
• In 2025, the global cinema exhibition industry recorded only modest growth of approximately 8%, masking a broader structural slowdown as consumer preferences continue to pivot toward streaming platforms. This secular shift has intensified competitive pressures on traditional cinema operators, compressing margins and limiting pricing power.
• However, emerging demographic trends may provide a counterbalance to these structural headwinds. According to research conducted by National Research Group (NRG), children and pre-teens, particularly Generation Alpha (those born between 2013 and 2025) demonstrate a stronger preference for the theatrical experience relative to older audiences. This cohort could play a pivotal role in revitalising cinema attendance over the medium term.
• Against this backdrop, Palace intends to capitalise on this opportunity by enhancing the in-theatre experience and positioning itself as more than just a box office operator. The strategic focus is to expand its footprint within the broader entertainment ecosystem, capturing a greater share of consumer discretionary spending and reinforcing the long-term earning potential of the business.
• Since the start of the year, PAL’s stock price has decreased by 5.1%, to close at $3.43 and $0.93, respectively, on February 23, 2026.

(Sources: Palace Amusement Company Ltd. and NCBCM Research)

• In January 2026, Trinidad and Tobago’s headline inflation rate, as measured by the year-on-year change in the All-Items Index, was 0.7%. This outturn reflects a slight uptick in price momentum compared to the 0.4% recorded in December 2025. Notably, the current rate has returned to the same level observed in January 2025 (7%), suggesting a stabilisation of annual price growth after a year-end dip.
• The All-Items Index calculated from the prices collected for January 2026 was 125.8, representing an increase of 0.6 points or 0.5% above December 2025.
• The Index for Food and Non-Alcoholic Beverages increased from 152.9 in December 2025 to 153.4 in January 2026, reflecting an increase of 0.3%.
• Contributing significantly to this increase was the general upward movement in the prices of fresh whole chicken, fresh carite, ochras, tomatoes, plantains, chilled or frozen turkey parts, eddoes, parboiled rice, fresh king fish and melongene. However, the full impact of these price increases was offset by the general decrease in the prices of cucumber, irish potatoes, tea in bags, chocolate malt beverages, hot peppers, chive, soya bean oil, grapes, cabbage and celery.
• Outside of food, several other categories saw price changes between December 2025 and January 2026. The sub-index for Alcoholic Beverages and Tobacco of 1.0%, Health of 0.3%, Recreation and Culture of 5.3%, Hotels, Cafes and Restaurants of 0.1% and Miscellaneous Goods and Services of 0.5%.
• At the same time, some sectors experienced price declines. Furnishing, Household Equipment and Routine Maintenance of the House of 0.8%, Transport of 0.2% and Communication of 0.1%. All other sections remained unchanged.

(Sources: Trinidad Express Newspaper & NCBCM Research)