• Lackluster new U.S. jobs data and a weak report on manufacturing highlight an emerging concern among Federal Reserve (Fed) officials that employment could slip even as the risk of a tariff-driven round of inflation limits their ability to do anything about it.
• New data from Intuit's Small Business Index, compiled from the company's business software clients, showed the smallest firms shed around 98,000 jobs in March, a 0.82% decline from February.
• Data on hiring and layoffs for February showed a job market that was potentially losing steam more broadly, with a drop in job openings, a slight rise in layoffs, worker quit rates similar to those during the languid job market of the mid-2010s, and near balance in the demand for and supply of available employees.
• While investors following the report boosted bets the Fed would cut rates three times this year more than central bank officials are projecting, a separate report on manufacturing sent a more confusing signal.
• The Institute for Supply Management index of manufacturing activity fell, but its measure of prices paid by companies rose. "The manufacturing sector is showing the first signs that stagflation may be coming for the broader economy," wrote Inflation Insights President Omair Sharif, noting the price measure in the survey rose at the fastest pace since mid-2022. This could be a confounding situation for the Fed.
• Policymakers have said they will keep their benchmark policy rate in the current 4.25% to 4.5% range as they wait for a clearer understanding of how the tariffs and other policy changes being rolled out by President Donald Trump influence the economy. However, one near-term impact that concerns them - a weakening economy coupled with rising prices - offers no easy monetary policy response.
• New data on job growth and the unemployment rate for March will be released on Friday.

(Source: Reuters)

• The Bank of Jamaica (BOJ) has issued a stark warning over the alarming rise in internet banking fraud, which has increased by an astounding 890 percent ($330.6Mn) since 2020. This surge in cybercrimes, as outlined in the BOJ’s latest financial stability report for 2024, has become one of the most significant emerging threats to the country’s banking sector.
• Banking fraud is now a major concern, with internet banking fraud incidents rising sharply between 2019 and 2023, “approximately nine times the pre-pandemic rate.” The central bank attributed this rise to the rapid shift towards electronic banking methods following the COVID-19 pandemic.
• Credit and debit card fraud was the most prevalent type, accounting for “an annual average of just over 69% of the $800Mn of total fraud amounts reported by financial institutions” by the end of 2023. These frauds were primarily concentrated in areas with higher digital traffic, such as Kingston, Portmore, and Spanish Town.
• The BOJ also reported a rise in physical robberies targeting currency management services, including five attacks on cash-in-transit (CIT) service providers and 10 robbery attempts at automated banking machine (ABM) locations. These incidents resulted in the theft of approximately $145 million. However, these types of robberies represented a smaller portion of the monetary losses compared to online fraud.
• In response to these increasing threats, the central bank indicated that commercial banks have introduced enhanced anti-fraud measures and have taken steps to recover losses. Additionally, the BOJ emphasised the importance of prosecution and enforcement efforts in tackling fraud. As fraudsters continue to adapt their techniques, the Bank of Jamaica warned of a rise in social engineering tactics, which have proven to be increasingly effective in circumventing security measures. The BOJ stressed that both financial institutions and the public must remain vigilant and proactive in combating these evolving threats to Jamaica’s banking sector.
• The central bank’s ongoing efforts will focus on strengthening the country’s financial security and ensuring that Jamaica’s banking system remains resilient in the face of emerging cybercrime risks.

(Source: Caribbean News Weekly)

• China’s state-owned offshore oil and gas producer CNOOC Ltd. said on Thursday (March 27) that its overseas production surged by 10.8% in 2024, driven in part by the commissioning of new projects, including the Payara development in Guyana.
• In its annual results report, CNOOC said overseas output rose to 234 million barrels of oil equivalent (boe) in 2024, up from 211.3 million boe in 2023. The company holds a 25% stake in the Payara project, the third oil development in the Stabroek Block offshore Guyana, which is operated by ExxonMobil.
• Payara began production in November 2023 and reached its design capacity of 220,000 barrels per day (b/d) in January 2024. ExxonMobil later carried out structural optimisation measures, raising the vessel’s production capacity to approximately 250,000 b/d by June 2024. The Stabroek block currently has three producing projects with a combined capacity of over 650,000 b/d.
• Exxon has said further optimisation measures could allow Payara and the Liza Phase 2 project—both designed to produce 220,000 b/d—to ramp up to 265,000 b/d each. However, Guyana’s regulators are still reviewing the application and have yet to approve the proposed increases. Officials said they are taking a thorough approach to ensure safety.
• Guyana is becoming an increasingly valuable asset in CNOOC’s portfolio, with production increasing rapidly every year. The company expects three additional projects in the South American nation to come online between 2025 and 2028, adding a total of 750,000 b/d in new production capacity.

(Source: Oil NOW)

• United States (US) Secretary of State, Marco Rubio, has pledged to participate in further discussions with the Jamaican Government to better understand its engagement of doctors under the Cuban Medical Cooperation Programme. Mr. Rubio has also acknowledged that Jamaica may not be among the nations deemed to be exploiting Cuban labour.
• Responding to questions regarding the Programme, which Jamaica has heavily relied on for more than five decades, Secretary Rubio sought to clarify that the US does not have an issue with the Cuban medical programme, but rather with forced labour.
• While specifying that he was not speaking about how Jamaica’s programme operates, the Secretary of State indicated that in other parts of the world, Cuban doctors are reportedly not paid directly, but have their compensation sent to the Cuban Government, which then decides how much they will receive.
• He alleged that in some cases, the passports of professionals are taken and they are coerced into participating in forced labour.
• “There are places that have better labour standards [and] perhaps Jamaica is one of those, and that’s fine. Every country operates their programme differently and, obviously, because of our relationship with Jamaica, we’re going to engage with them on that and talk about it further and have a better understanding. Perhaps none of this applies in the way it’s handled here,” Secretary Rubio stated.
• He maintained, however, that the US Government cannot be supportive of trafficking and forced labour.
• Meanwhile, Prime Minister Holness, in responding to questions regarding the Programme, emphasised that the Cuban doctors in Jamaica have been incredibly helpful in assisting to fill deficits created by local health personnel exiting the system, noting that many have migrated to other countries.
• Minister of Health and Wellness, Dr. Tufton, advised that the Government is currently renegotiating the Memorandum of Understanding (MOU) governing the Programme. He added that the contracts of several Cuban healthcare professionals now on the island ended recently, so they will be heading home. However, Dr. Tufton said a new batch of medical professionals will be heading to Jamaica to replace the outgoing personnel.

(Source: JIS)

• Jamaica Broilers Group (JBG) saw its profits blown off course in its third quarter. The company posted a net loss of $1.0Bn compared to a net profit of $1.3Bn in the same quarter last year. The downturn was largely driven by weak US segment performance and higher costs, despite a slight uptick in overall revenues.
• Group revenues climbed to J$24.6Bn, a 5.0% increase YoY, buoyed by a 5.0% revenue rise in US operations and a 0.5% lift in Jamaica. The topline improvement reflects resilience across key segments, but it wasn’t enough to salvage the group’s profits.
• Despite stronger sales, JBG saw gross and operating profit erosion amid rising costs. Gross profits dropped 21.0% YoY to J$4.7Bn, reflecting higher direct costs, while operating profit was also down, dented by higher operating expenses, particularly in the US, where segment profit cratered 69.0% to $922.0Mn.
• These lower results were primarily linked to ongoing operational challenges in the US, including flooding and weak broiler performance as well as Hurricane Beryl’s disruption in Jamaica. Specifically, for the US operations, management cited rising distribution and management costs, hurricane/flooding challenges in US broiler operations and ongoing investments in strengthening internal controls and risk oversight as key sources of the weaker performance.
• Ultimately, JBG’s Q3 results had a significant drag on the Group’s 9-month (9M) performance. Though 9M revenues were slightly up, the sharp decline in Q3 earnings erased prior momentum.
• For Q4, management has been focused on turning around its US operations and preserving stability in its home market. As part of that thrust, it has engaged external advisors in the US to review operational controls and any implications to the financial performance of the US Operations.
• Following the release of the financials, JBG’s stock price closed at J$30.71 on Thursday, reflecting a 9.7% decline immediately after the release. Year-to-date, its price is down 14.5%, implying a P/E of 9.22x, below the Main Market Distribution & Manufacturing Average of 13.35x.

(Source: JSE and NCBCM Research)

• The Bank of Mexico delivered a unanimous 50-basis-point interest rate cut to 9.00% on Thursday, highlighting progress on inflation but warning of heightened uncertainty relating to trade tensions and a weakening economy.
• The move, which analysts polled by Reuters expected, brings Mexico's benchmark rate to its lowest since September 2022. It was the second consecutive cut of half a percentage point after the bank's five-member governing board sped up its rate-cutting pace at its February meeting.
• Cuts of the same size could be considered at future meetings, Banxico, as the Mexican central bank is known, said in a statement announcing its decision. Banxico highlighted that Mexico's disinflation progress is "well on track." Mexico's inflation rate has fallen within the bank's target range of 3%, plus or minus a percentage point. Data released days before the policy meeting showed that headline inflation eased to 3.67% on an annual basis in the first half of March, down from 3.74% in the previous month.
• Easing inflation comes amid mounting concerns of a possible recession in Latin America's no. 2 economy, which was battered last year by a drought and has been thrashed in recent weeks by Washington's on-again, off-again tariff threats and a related drop in investor confidence. "The changes in economic policy by the new U.S. administration have added uncertainty to the forecasts," said Banxico, adding that the effects could push inflation higher or lower.
• Banxico's rate decision comes a day after U.S. President Donald Trump announced new tariffs on auto imports, posing a threat to Mexico's critical auto industry. Earlier this week, JPMorgan said a recession in Mexico was "unavoidable" after data from Mexico's statistics agency showed the economy shrank 0.2% in January. Banxico said Mexico's economy "is expected to exhibit weakness once again in the first quarter of 2025.
• A first-quarter contraction would mark a technical recession, after the economy shrank in the fourth quarter, its first quarterly contraction since the pandemic.

(Source: Reuters)

• S. Secretary of State warned Venezuela on Thursday that it would be "a very bad day" for the South American country if it were to attack its neighbor Guyana or U.S.-based energy giant ExxonMobil, in comments that threatened unspecified action in such a case.
• Guyana and Venezuela are locked in a long-running dispute about which country has rights over the 160,000-square-km (62,000-square-mile) Esequibo area, which is the subject of an ongoing case at the International Court of Justice. Washington has offered military support to Guyana, a tiny South American country, amid the dispute and increasing U.S. sanctions on Venezuela.
• "It would be a very bad day for the Venezuelan regime if they were to attack Guyana or attack ExxonMobil or anything," Rubio said. "It would be a very bad day, a very bad week for them, and it would not end well for them. I'm not going to get into details of what we'll do. We're not big on those kinds of threats."
• Tensions rose early this month when Guyana said a Venezuela coast guard patrol entered its waters and approached an output vessel in an offshore oil block operated by Exxon. Venezuela has said the vessel did not enter Guyanese waters, as the maritime zone delimitation is still pending as part of the dispute. The U.S. Navy cruiser Normandy and the Guyana Defence Force patrol vessel Shahoud were conducting exercises in international waters and the Guyana Exclusive Economic Zone, the U.S. embassy in Guyana said in a social media post early on Thursday.
• A consortium by Exxon, Hess, and China's CNOOC controls all oil and gas output in Guyana, which this year is producing some 650,000 barrels per day. The northwest portion of the block, close to Venezuela, has remained in force majeure as the Exxon group has been unable to complete exploration there.

(Source: Reuters)

• The U.S. Justice Department is considering merging the lead agencies enforcing drug and gun laws in a major shakeup as it follows President Donald Trump's instructions to sharply streamline the government, according to a memo.
• In addition to potentially merging the Drug Enforcement Administration and Bureau of Alcohol, Tobacco, Firearms and Explosives, department leaders are considering eliminating field offices that handle antitrust, environmental and civil cases, according to the March 25 memo.
• A possible merger of the ATF and DEA into a single agency would "achieve efficiencies in resources, case deconfliction and regulatory efforts," the memo says.
• Deputy Attorney General Todd Blanche ordered department officials in the memo to provide feedback on the proposed restructuring by April 2. He said the plan for proposed cuts and mergers to various offices was previously provided to the Office of Personnel Management and the White House Office of Management and Budget.
• A DOJ official said the memo represents a preliminary proposal that is being circulated to solicit feedback from various department leaders. Some of the recommendations, such as the DEA-ATF merger, would require congressional approval, the official added. The memo does not specify how many jobs could be affected by the changes. The department employed about 115,000 people as of January.

(Source: Reuters)

• The U.S. Congressional Budget Office (CBO) on Thursday, March 27, 2025, projected significant increases in federal budget deficits and debt over the next 30 years, in part due to rapidly rising interest costs, as it sketched out sluggish economic growth and a shrinking workforce. It also projected real economic growth, forecast at 2.1% in 2025, slowing to 1.4% in 2055.
• CBO’s latest long-term budget projections show federal deficits accelerating to 7.3% of the economy in fiscal year 2055 from 6.2% in 2025. That is up from the 30-year average from 1995 to 2024 of 3.9%. The U.S. public debt, meanwhile, is seen rising alarmingly, to 156% of GDP in 2055 from 100% in 2025.
• As the non-partisan budget analyst for Congress, the CBO bases its projections on current law, which could change significantly in the short term. That is due in part to the push now underway by President Donald Trump and his fellow Republicans who control the U.S. Senate and House of Representatives to slash federal spending and the government's workforce, while also extending costly tax cuts that are due to expire at the end of this year under current law.
• Trump also has ordered tough border security measures and efforts to deport immigrants that experts see potentially denting the economy as a result of labor shortages. Whether or not Congress will be able to pass legislation implementing Trump's agenda could be determined over the next several months.
• Another unknown factor is the outcome of court challenges to Trump policies that are already pending. The CBO does not include any consideration of the outcome of those court cases in its long-term projections. The report also does not factor in the potential impact on the U.S. economy from a broad range of tariffs Trump is implementing against foreign goods.

(Source: Reuters)

• Details surrounding the basis of allotment of the TransJamaican Highway offer for sale, which closed on March 18, 2025, were released on the Jamaica Stock Exchange on March 25th.
• Given that the offer for sale was oversubscribed by more than 36.0% of the upsized amount, not all applicants will receive the full allocation. The pool of Strategic investors will receive 100.00% of the amount applied for. Meanwhile, the General Public will be allotted the first 2,778,000 Sale Shares applied for and approximately 33.065% of any remaining shares requested.
• All Applicants will receive a formal letter from the JCSD informing them of their respective allotments of shares in Transjamaican Highway Limited in due course. JCSD Accounts for successful Applicants are expected to be credited with the allotted Sale Shares on or before Monday, March 31, 2025.
• At market close on March 26th, TJH’s USD and JMD shares traded at US$0.026 and J$3.99, respectively, which is 14.0% and 10.8% higher than the offer prices of US$0.0228 and J$3.60.

(Source: NCBCM, JSE)