• Despite solid growth in revenues for the quarter ended June 2025 (Q2 2025), the Jamaica Stock Exchange Group’s (JSE) earnings fell sharply (40.9%) to $45.28Mn, year-over-year, due to elevated costs.
• Revenues for the quarter reached $658.55Mn, reflecting a 14.9% increase compared to Q2 2024. Top-line growth was broad-based, with fee income rising by 13.5% and cess increasing by 20.7%, representing the primary contributors to the overall uplift.
• However, growth in operating expenses outpaced topline growth. Operating expenses rose (34.1%) to $607.85Mn for the same period in 2024. A significant net impairment loss on financial assets (+867%), increased staff costs (+14%) reflecting inflationary pressures and the onboarding of new personnel, higher property expenses (+37.8%), and additional operating costs (+86.3%) associated with expanded activities aimed at stimulating growth were the main contributors to the elevated costs.
• Consequently, despite the improvement in revenues during the quarter, earnings plunged to $45.53Mn from $76.99Mn.
• However, despite a challenging quarter, JSE reported a 66.2% increase in earnings to $112.20Mn for the six-month ended June 2025 (H1 2025). The H1 2025 outturn was underpinned by a strong first-quarter performance (+155.5%), which more than offset the decline in Q2 2025.
• That said, elevated interest rates have suppressed market activity over the past two years. However, with price pressures dissipating, interest rates could trend downward, allowing for an uptick in market activity and a potential increase in listings is anticipated. In this scenario, JSE stands to benefit directly from higher fee income and cess, which would ultimately support earnings growth.
• JSE’s stock price has decreased by 1.8% since the start of the calendar year. The stock closed Wednesday’s trading session at $12.95 and currently trades at a P/E of 14.9x above the Main Market Financial Sector Average 13.6x.

 (Sources: JSE & NCBCM Research)

• Trinidad and Tobago’s (T&T’s) economy relies heavily on petroleum exports, which provide about 80.0% of foreign exchange and support the import-driven onshore sector; however, resource depletion is reducing forex earnings and threatening living standards.
• The private sector has limited export capacity, making diversification a slow process; recent forex stability has been sustained by government reserves, savings, and debt, but this is unsustainable without new energy projects.
• The government is banking on Venezuelan gas exploitation and deep-water oil negotiations with Exxon-Mobil, which could bring major forex gains but carry economic risks and depend on external approvals.
• Long-term sustainability requires diversifying into higher-value, knowledge-intensive industries, which demand investment in human capital, Science, Technology & Engineering and Mathematics (STEM) skills, innovation, infrastructure, and institutional quality, alongside small and medium-sized enterprise (SME) and Research and Development (R&D) support.
• Building strong international trade networks, attracting foreign direct investment, and creating a national innovation system are key to overcoming private-sector rigidity and boosting economic complexity for export competitiveness.

(Source: Trinidad Express)

• Authorities and major businesses are drawing up emergency measures to protect citizens from surging prices, after new US tariffs came into effect last week and sparked warnings of further cost-of-living increases.
• Triggered by a new 10.0% duty on Barbadian goods entering the US, which came into force on Thursday as part of President Donald Trump’s sweeping new taxes on imports from more than 90 countries—in his bid to promote domestic manufacturing, protect national security, and substitute for income taxes—the Barbadian business community has also started talks on a parallel plan to shift trading away from the US.
• The plan also includes shifting food imports from the United States, Barbados’ main supplier for decades, to Latin America.
• Describing Barbados as a price-taker due to its high level of imports, President of the Barbados Chamber of Commerce and Industry (BCCI) Paul Inniss said that in many cases, prices from the US “will inevitably be passed on to the consumer”. As a consequence, he disclosed that the BCCI and the government are collaborating on a strategic plan to try to ensure prices do not spiral, particularly as they impact consumers.
• Inniss pointed out that not all businesses will be affected equally, as some do not rely mainly on the US as their source market. However, the bulk of the country’s food is bought from the US, he explained, so those retailers and distributors who source such goods from there will be directly affected.
• He also noted that Barbados buys a lot of materials from the US, in addition to goods channelled through American ports from elsewhere. “There may be implications for some of us who manufacture, assemble and do stuff locally [regarding] how the tariffs will actually impact those things that we purchase elsewhere, that may come through the US,” Inniss argued.
• The chamber president indicated a plan to diversify supply by shifting to other sources, such as Latin America, in phases.

(Source: Barbados Today)

• The likelihood of a Federal Reserve rate cut in September 2025 is now seen near 100.0% after new data showed U.S. inflation increased at a moderate pace in July 2025, and Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said he thought an aggressive half-point cut was possible given recent weak employment numbers.
• Traders in contracts tied to the benchmark federal funds rate on Wednesday, July 13, 2025 put the odds of a quarter-percentage point cut at the Fed's September 16-17 meeting at 99.9%, according to estimates calculated by the CME Group's FedWatch tool that followed the release of July Consumer Price Index data on Tuesday, July 12, 2025, and later comments by Bessent noting that the Fed had used fears of a weakening job market as justification for a larger cut last September.
• Fed Chair Jerome Powell is expected to speak at a central bank research conference in Wyoming next week, a forum he used last year to point to coming rate cuts with a promise "to do everything we can to support a strong labour market as we make further progress toward price stability." The Fed cut rates at three meetings at the end of 2024, in September and at two meetings after the election in November and December. It has been on hold since. Notably, at the time, the unemployment rate had risen about three-quarters of a percentage point over the prior year.
• While the unemployment rate has not changed much since, job growth now seems to have slowed, and Bessent rooted his argument for cuts in recent Bureau of Labor Statistics data showing torpid employment gains in May, June and July 2025, in contrast to initial estimates for May and June 2025, indicating stronger employment growth. Fed officials relied on those stronger numbers to argue that the labour market remained in good shape and to hold rates steady at its meetings in June and July 2025.
• Bessent urged rate cuts as the administration moves forward in its search for a replacement for Fed Chair Jerome Powell. The rate cuts Bessent suggested stop far short of Trump's call for the benchmark rate to be cut to 1% but would drop it from the current 4.25% to 4.5% range to around 3% - roughly what Fed policymakers consider to be a "neutral" stance that is neither boosting nor holding back the economy.

(Source: Reuters)

• The U.S. government's budget deficit grew nearly 20% in July 2025 to $291Bn, despite a $21Bn jump in customs duty collections from President Donald Trump's tariffs, with outlays growing faster than receipts, the Treasury Department said on Tuesday, August 12, 2025. Receipts for the month grew 2%, or $8Bn, to $338Bn, while outlays jumped 10%, or $56Bn, to $630Bn, a record high for the month.
• According to a Treasury official, net customs receipts in July 2025 grew to about $27.7Bn from about $7.1Bn in the year-earlier period due to higher tariff rates imposed by Trump. These collections were largely in line with the increase in June 2025 customs receipts after steady growth since April 2025.
• Trump has touted the billions of dollars flowing into U.S. coffers from his tariffs, but the duties are paid by companies importing the goods, with some costs often passed on to consumers in the form of higher prices. Consumer price index data on Tuesday, August 12, 2025, showed increases in prices for some tariff-sensitive goods like furniture, footwear and auto parts, but they were offset by lower gasoline prices in the overall index.
• The overall year-to-date budget results showed a $1.629 trillion deficit, up 7%, or $112Bn, from the same period a year earlier. Receipts were up 6%, or $262Bn, to $4.347Tn, a record high for the 10-month period, while outlays grew 7%, or $374Bn, to $5.975Tn, also a 10-month record.

(Source: Reuters)

• Aided by robust growth in insurance revenues, Key Insurance Company (KEY) reported a net profit of $44.11Mn for the six-months ended June 30, 2025, a 71.4% year-over-year increase in profitability.
• Insurance revenues increased by 12.1% to $1.63Bn year-over-year (YoY), primarily driven by steady premium growth in the motor portfolio, which contributed 68.0% of total insurance revenue and grew by 16.8% (YoY).
• Similarly, insurance expenses rose by 14.8%; however, this outpaced topline growth due to increases in both the frequency and severity of motor vehicle accidents. Consequently, claims expenses grew by $115.90Mn, or 19.0%, over the period compared to the same period in H1 2024.
• Management continues to pursue a clear growth strategy focused on revenue expansion, profitability, and operational efficiency. The company is also proactively managing its motor and non-motor portfolios, using data-driven insights to target high-value opportunities, optimise underwriting, and improve claims outcomes.
• Of note, on March 17, 2025, GraceKennedy Financial Group Limited (GKFG) launched an offer to acquire all outstanding ordinary shares of Key Insurance, totaling 149,521,334 units, not already held by GKFG or its affiliates. At the close of the offer, GKFG secured an additional 26.5% of Key’s total issued share capital, increasing its ownership from 73.2% to 98.8%.
• Since the offer closed on July 11, 2025, the liquidity of the stocks has fallen sharply, with the average daily trading volume dropping by over 98.3% to just 256 units.
• KEY’s stock price has increased by 23.6% since the launch of the offer for sale; however, year to date, the share price has appreciated by 9.4%. The stock closed Tuesday’s trading session at $2.67 and currently trades at a P/B of 1.01x above the Main Market Financial Sector Average of 1.1x.

(Sources: JSE and NCBCM Research)

• Despite a decline in revenues in the second quarter ending June (Q2 2025), Regency Petroleum Limited (RPL) recorded a 36.0% increase in earnings as the net effect of lower petroleum prices and volumes sold at its new location in Spanish Town benefited the company.
• The new location helped to drive the increase in volumes sold; however, despite the increase in the volume of 87 and 90 octane fuel sold during the quarter, revenues declined by 10.7%, due to the fall in petrol prices. The average prices for 87 and 90 octane fuel declined by 10.5% and 10.7%, respectively.
• While the price reduction negatively impacted revenues, it had a positive impact on margins as the cost of sales declined at a faster pace of 19.4% to $338.67Mn. Consequently, this resulted in an 853bps increase in gross margin to 21.3%. Falling ex-refinery prices for gasoline typically allow retailers like RPL to widen margins and improve profitability.
• However, the company saw a sharp increase in operating expenses. Total operating expenses were 39.6% higher at $46.12Mn relative to the prior period of $33.04Mn as the company opened its new Spanish Town Road service station in January. The new location has increased expenses like staff costs, security costs, and depreciation expenses. RPL also spent more on repairs and maintenance during the period related to various service stations and filing stations across the country.
• That said, it benefited from a $983,300 expected credit loss write-back as the company recovered funds owed from LPG customers.
• The company’s new truck stop in Crawford, St. Elizabeth, is currently being developed and has made significant progress since the announcement, as construction continues on the convenience store and other parts of the location.
• Operating under a dealer-owned, dealer-operated model, the truck stop will allow RPL to generate recurring revenue through fuel supply and franchising without bearing full operational costs, potentially boosting margins. The strategic expansion, coupled with a first-mover advantage in the truck stop segment, positions RPL to strengthen its market presence, enhance operational efficiency, and support long-term earnings growth. The company also hinted at a second service station project expected to break ground by year-end, reinforcing the company’s aggressive growth trajectory.
• RPL’s stock price has increased by 18.5% since the start of the calendar year. The stock closed Tuesday’s trading session at $3.91 and currently trades at a P/B of 9.9x above the Junior Market Distribution Sector Average of 3.8x.

 (Sources: JSE & NCBCM Research)

• The Inter-American Development Bank (IDB) approved a US$30Mn Conditional Credit Line for Investment Projects (CCLIP) to aid in Guyana’s efforts to enhance its water and sanitation infrastructure. According to the IDB, CCLIP aims to enhance the resilience, quality, and sustainability of the services provided by Guyana Water Incorporated (GWI), including drinking water and sewerage services.
• With the IDB credit line, Guyana can continue its effort to upgrade and transform the potable water supply sector. It is said that GWI will also undergo a digital transformation, enabling the adoption of modern technologies and tools to improve operational management, reduce costs, and increase revenue.
• Additionally, the main objective of the investment includes the construction of a new water treatment plant at Diamond, along with approximately 15 kilometres of transmission pipelines and interconnections to facilitate the integration of the new plant with existing distribution networks. With the programme’s support for reducing Non-Revenue Water initiatives, work will be undertaken to advance Guyana’s leak detection and repair efforts, along with public awareness campaigns.
• The IDB also approved a Specific Investment Loan (ESP) of US$15.57Mn to improve the water and sanitation infrastructure in Guyana. Aiding the government’s push for potable water nationwide, a 38.0% increase was seen in 2020 and over 90.0% in 2025, with the primary objective of achieving 100.0% potable water coverage by year-end.
• The US$30Mn CCLIP has a repayment term of 25 years, a 5.5-year grace period, and an interest rate based on the Secured Overnight Financing Rate (SOFR). It will also benefit from a co-financing contribution of US$36.33Mn to be financed by the Japan International Cooperation Agency (JICA).
• Over the past five years, Guyana has embarked on a transformative journey in the water and sanitation sector to increase potable water supply by constructing new water treatment plants, installing transmission mains to improve the quality of service to citizens nationwide, and drilling new wells in both coastal and hinterland communities to extend access to safe water supply.

(Source: Caribbean News Global)

• Costa Rica is projected to experience solid economic growth in 2025, with forecasts pointing to a moderate slowdown but still strong performance compared to many regional peers. According to the International Monetary Fund (IMF), Costa Rica’s GDP growth is expected to be around 3.4% to 3.5% this year, supported by robust fundamentals, sound policies, and a diverse economic base.
• This anticipated growth rate marks a slight moderation from the higher rates seen in recent years. Costa Rica has averaged over 5.0% growth annually since 2021. The slowdown reflects global and regional headwinds, including weaker external demand, tighter global financial conditions, and increased policy uncertainty.
• Despite these challenges, the country’s strategic location, strong export sectors, particularly in technology and business services, and economic diversification are expected to sustain continued growth momentum.
• Costa Rica’s fiscal situation has improved, with public debt declining steadily below 60.0% of GDP and ongoing fiscal consolidation efforts. Inflation is forecast to moderate and align with the Central Bank’s target of near 3.0% by 2026. The country has also secured a US$1.5Bn flexible credit line from the IMF, providing a buffer against external shocks, underlining strong policy frameworks and economic resilience.
• Key sectors driving growth include financial services, agriculture, construction, and the service sector, notably high-value industries like technology, business process outsourcing, and tourism. Free trade zones remain vital, attracting foreign investment and supporting export growth.
• While growth is expected to be positive, risks remain on the downside from external pressures such as US economic slowdown, tariff impacts, and global uncertainties. Nevertheless, Costa Rica stands out in Central America for its strong economic fundamentals and steady policy progress, positioning it well to maintain its role as a leading regional economy in 2025. The country also faces ongoing challenges, including managing public spending and expanding opportunities for broad-based economic participation.
• Costa Rica’s growth forecast for 2025 contrasts with some of its neighbouring countries facing more significant economic challenges, highlighting Costa Rica’s relative stability and resilience in a complex global environment.

(Source: Tico Times)

• U.S. consumer prices increased moderately in July, though rising costs for services such as airline fares and some tariff-sensitive goods like household furniture caused a measure of underlying inflation to post its largest gain in six months. The mixed report from the Labour Department's Bureau of Labour Statistics (BLS) on Tuesday did not change financial market expectations that the Federal Reserve would cut interest rates in September amid signs of a deterioration in labour market conditions.
• Economists, however, cautioned that higher prices from President Donald Trump's sweeping tariffs were still coming. They argued that businesses continued to sell merchandise accumulated before the import duties came into effect.
• While financial markets breathed a sigh of relief on the data, concerns are mounting over the quality of inflation and employment reports following budget and staffing cuts that have resulted in the suspension of data collection for portions of the Consumer Price Index basket in some areas across the country. Those worries were amplified by the firing of Erika McEntarfer, the head of the BLS, early this month after data showed stall-speed job growth in July.
• "Investors might want to hold back on the no-inflation celebration, however, because the goods sitting on store shelves arrived on boats months ago and the tariff hikes have yet to be applied to the goods on ships steaming the consumers' way right now," said Christopher Rupkey, chief economist at FWDBONDS. "Inflation is coming."
• The CPI rose 0.2% last month after a gain of 0.3% in June. The moderation reflected a 2.2% decline in gasoline prices. Food prices were unchanged after rising 0.3% for two straight months. Grocery store food prices fell 0.1% as a 3.9% drop in the cost of eggs more than offset a 1.5% increase in beef prices and 1.9% rise in the cost of milk.
• In the 12 months through July, the CPI advanced 2.7%, matching the rise in June. Economists polled by Reuters had forecast the CPI would rise 0.2% and increase 2.8% on a year-over-year basis. Excluding volatile food and energy components, the CPI rose 0.3%, the biggest gain since January, after climbing 0.2% in June. The so-called core CPI was lifted by higher prices for services, including a 4.0% rebound in airline fares as well as strong increases in the costs of healthcare and dental services.

(Source: Reuters)