• Fitch Ratings affirmed Jamaica's Long-Term Foreign-Currency Issuer Default Rating (IDR) at 'BB-'. The ratings reflect stronger governance than the peer median, significant progress with debt reduction, a sound fiscal framework, and a strong political commitment to deliver large primary surpluses. Debt-to-GDP has fallen to a forecast 70.8% in fiscal 2024/2025 from a high of 135.3% of GDP in fiscal 2012/2013.
• However, the ratings remain constrained by deep structural weaknesses, including subdued growth potential owing to a high crime rate, low productivity and weak demographics, and vulnerability to external shocks including weather-related.
• Despite the economic downturn last year caused by Hurricane Beryl and extensive rain in the fall, the overall surplus in the fiscal year ending in March 2025 will be slightly better at 0.3% of GDP than fiscal year 2023/24 at 0.0% of GDP. This is in part due to one-off revenues from insurance payments as well as concession proceeds from airports.
• These large primary surpluses are expected to reduce general government debt GDP to 66.3% of GDP in fiscal year 2025/26 from 70.8% this fiscal year. Debt is expected to fall to 63.5% in fiscal 2026/2027, putting it on track to meet the government's debt target, although the 60% target is still higher than the current 'BB' median of 55.6%.
• Most notably, Jamaica has remained committed to an economic policy framework built on two key pillars: the Bank of Jamaica's (BoJ) inflation-targeting monetary policy and fiscal policy anchored on debt reduction targets. Inflation fell to 5%, the midpoint of the BOJ's target range, at year-end 2024.
• The Rating Outlook is Positive. The Positive Outlook reflects Fitch's expectation of continued improvement in debt metrics and further strengthening of the policy framework over the next few years, including climate risk mitigants.

(Source: Fitch Ratings)

• Peru's gross domestic product (GDP) will likely expand by 4% this year and rank as the second-fastest growing economy in Latin America, as inflation is seen holding for another year at around 2%.
• The Andean economy is bouncing back from recession, with the government of President Dina Boluarte and the central bank forecasting positive prospects for 2025, including fewer inflationary pressures and more investment.
• Peru's economy for decades was one of Latin America's top performers, but in recent years growth has cooled as social unrest hit the country's key mining sector amid growing political instability. At a press conference, Economy Minister, Jose Salardi, pointed to the expectation of relatively high prices for copper and gold - Peru's top mineral exports - and a push to cut regulations that should facilitate investment.
• In Latin America, Peru's expected economic growth this year would be surpassed only by Argentina's likely expansion, according to Salardi. The Economy Ministry also forecasts inflation of 2% this year, after the annual rate of rising consumer prices closed in 2024 at 1.97%. Salardi added that he aims to lower the government's budget deficit, in line with established fiscal rules.
• Peru's debt-to-GDP ratio stands at around 33%. The minister added that the ratio is expected to go down, but did not go into further detail.

(Source: Reuters)

• The Government of Barbados and the CAF (Development Bank of Latin America and the Caribbean) have signed a US$75Mn financing agreement aimed at advancing cultural heritage preservation, tourism, and modernising related infrastructure.
• The agreement was formalised between Prime Minister Hon. Mia Mottley and CAF’s Executive President Sergio Díaz-Granados on the sidelines of the 48th CARICOM Heads of Government Meeting in Barbados.
• The funding will support key initiatives under the Reclaiming Our Atlantic Destiny (ROAD) Program, which seeks to strengthen Barbados’ connection to its rich history. Prime Minister Mottley described the initiative as “a moral imperative and an economic necessity.”
• She added, “CAF has been responsible for a number of loans that have made a difference in the life of Bajans, largely because many of these loans have been to build capacity in the country—from roads, right back through to the port at one point. This time we are taking a different slant. The country has not had investment in heritage facilities for some time.”
• CAF’s Executive President Sergio Díaz-Granados commended Prime Minister Mottley’s leadership and pledged ongoing support for Barbados’ sustainable development. “Our goal is to work with you to identify new projects and programmes that we can support.
• Since 2015, CAF has approved USD 335 million in development financing for Barbados, including recent allocations for water infrastructure modernisation, climate resilience, and recovery efforts following Hurricane Beryl

(Source: Nation News)

• Russia's overheating economy is on the cusp of serious cooling, as huge fiscal stimulus, soaring interest rates, stubbornly high inflation, and Western sanctions take their toll, but after three years of war, Washington may just have thrown Moscow a lifeline.
• U.S. President Donald Trump is pushing for a quick deal to end the war in Ukraine, alarming Washington's European allies by leaving them and Ukraine out of initial talks with Russia and blaming Ukraine for Russia's 2022 invasion, political gifts for Moscow that could also bring strong economic benefits.
• Washington's push comes as Moscow faces two undesirable options, according to Oleg Vyugin, former deputy chairman of Russia's central bank. Russia can either stop inflating military spending as it presses to gain territory in Ukraine, or maintain it and pay the price with years of slow growth, high inflation and falling living standards, all of which carry political risks.
• Though government spending usually stimulates growth, non-regenerative spending on missiles at the expense of civilian sectors has caused overheating to the extent that interest rates at 21% are slowing corporate investment and inflation cannot be tamed. "For economic reasons, Russia is interested in negotiating a diplomatic end to the conflict," Vyugin said. "This will avoid further increasing the redistribution of limited resources for unproductive purposes. It's the only way to avoid stagflation."
• While Russia is unlikely to swiftly reduce defence spending, which accounts for about a third of all budget expenditure, the prospect of a deal should ease other economic pressures, could bring sanctions relief and eventually the return of Western firms.

(Source: Reuters)

• Canada's retail sales grew by a robust 2.5% on a monthly basis in December, beating analysts' expectations, as a sales tax holiday bumped up spending on food and beverages. People also bought cars and vehicle parts, data showed last Friday.
• Retail sales are considered an early indicator of GDP growth and contribute almost 40.0% to total consumer spending, which was primarily responsible for keeping Canada's economy growing in the third quarter. Economists said the government's sales tax break, which kicked off in mid-December and ended February 15, also boosted revenues.
• Analysts polled by Reuters had forecast retail sales would rise by 1.6% on a month-on-month basis and by 1.8% excluding automotive and parts sales. Retail sales jumped by 2.5% even after sales of automotive parts and at dealerships were excluded, Statistics Canada said.
• "Even if the momentum of retail sales fades into the new year, these figures add to the argument for the Bank of Canada to pause at next month's meeting," Shelly Kaushik, senior economist at BMO Capital Markets, wrote in a note.
• Currency swap markets now see a more than 68.0% chance of no rate cut on March 12, although economists have said expectations for the trajectory of interest rates could change if U.S. President Donald Trump slaps a 25% tariff on Canadian imports in March.

(Source: Reuters)

• At its meetings on February 18 and 19 2025, the Bank of Jamaica’s (BOJ) Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) unanimously agreed to hold the policy rate at 6.00%. The decision was influenced by upside inflation risks from the external environment and potential adverse weather conditions. This rate action comes after the Central Bank cut rates by a total of 100 basis points between August 2024 and December 2024.
• The maintenance of the policy rate was supported by the MPC’s belief that the current policy rate of 6.0% continued to be appropriate to support inflation remaining within the target range and maintaining relative stability in the foreign exchange market.
• Inflation remains firm within the Bank’s 4.0%-6.0% target range, with January 2025 inflation at 4.7%, down from 7.4% in January 2024. Core inflation, which excludes the most volatile inflation components – food and fuel – and is thus a better indicator of long-term inflation trends, amounted to 4.0% in January 2025, remaining consistently below 6.0% since July 2023. Furthermore, the MPC anticipates that headline inflation will remain inside the target over the next 8 quarters, likely supported by lower business inflation expectations, a key driver of headline inflation.
• While the inflation outlook appears balanced, risks are skewed to the upside given the uncertainty related to the potential economic policy changes in the United States which could affect inflation expectations and inflows through the current account of Jamaica’s balance of payments. Worse-than-anticipated weather conditions could also put upward pressure on inflation. That said, the MPC communicated that it would be prepared to adjust the stance of monetary policy if the above-noted risks crystallise and result in an upward deviation from the inflation target.

(Sources: BOJ & NCBCM Research)

• After seeing steady gains for the financial year ended September 30, 2024 (FY2024), Salada Foods has witnessed a +63.2% earnings increase for its first quarter ended December 31, 2024 (Q1 2025) relative to Q1 2024, buoyed by the impact of improved distribution efforts which added to revenue growth.
• Salada’s Q1 revenues increased by 32.8% to J$398.19Mn due to heightened demand across both domestic and export markets. This was supported by the Company’s strategic marketing initiatives and distribution expansion efforts.
• In FY2024, Salad successfully secured distribution of its flagship brand, Jamaica Mountain Peak, in Trinidad & Tobago with local distributors Alstons Marketing Company (AMCO) Limited. The Mountain Peak Golden Turmeric Latte quickly became a household favourite, contributing approximately 24% of the value of the portfolio in Trinidad & Tobago. This along with exports to Barbados, St. Lucia, Antigua and Barbuda, and other company engagements continued to provide support for revenue growth.
• Direct costs grew in tandem with revenues with cost of sales rising by 30.6%, slightly below revenue growth, which supported a 37.6% gross profit increase to J$126.22Mn.
• Meanwhile, operating costs rose 15.7%, which supported a 68.3% increase in operating profits to J$65.74Mn compared to 5.5% to $37.87Mn for Q1 2024. This improvement reflects disciplined cost management and improved operational efficiencies due to ongoing plant modernization efforts.
• The company also saw a 4.9% uptick in net financing income for Q1 as interest income on funds invested exceeded financing expenses. With the increase in revenues, controlled costs and the uptick in net financing income, Salada’s Q1 total comprehensive income increased by (+63.2%) to J$50.40Mn. 
• At the close of the stock market on February 20, 2025, Salada’s share price stood at $3.26, implying a P/E ratio of 16.40x, which is above the Main Market Distribution & Manufacturing Average of 14.05x.

(Sources: JSE & NCBCM Research)

• In response to the increasing number of real estate scams in the Dominican Republic, Senator Eduard Espiritusanto of La Romana has introduced a bill aimed at regulating and professionalising the sector.
• The proposed law would require real estate brokers and agents to obtain official licenses, complete mandatory training, and adhere to transparency and consumer protection standards. It also establishes a National Registry of Real Estate Intermediaries, supervised by the Ministry of Industry, Commerce, and MSMEs (MICM), which will oversee licensing and penalize fraudulent practices.
• The bill includes strict penalties for unauthorized real estate activities, including fines of up to 50 minimum wages, business suspensions, and criminal charges for fraud or identity theft. A key feature is the introduction of a Geolocation Service for Georeferenced Properties, allowing individuals to verify the legal status, ownership, and location of registered properties in coordination with the Real Estate Jurisdiction.
• Espiritusanto emphasized the urgent need for this law, highlighting the devastating impact of scams on Dominican families, particularly those living abroad. The bill also proposes measures such as mandatory civil liability insurance for brokers, regulation of commission fees, and stricter controls on real estate advertising to prevent misleading promotions. The senator believes these reforms will create a safer, more trustworthy real estate market that protects buyers and enhances the country’s reputation.

(Source: Dominican Today)

• A U.S. flight carrying 135 deportees, half of them minors, from various countries was set to land Thursday in Costa Rica, making it the second Latin American nation to serve as a stopover for migrants as U.S. President Donald Trump‘s administration steps up deportations.
• Upon arrival, the migrants will be bused from Costa Rica’s capital to a rural holding facility near the Panama border, where they will wait up to 30 days to be flown back to their countries of origin, said Omer Badilla, Costa Rica’s deputy minister of the interior and police. The U.S. government will cover the costs.
• The arrangement is part of a deal the Trump administration struck with Costa Rica during U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio’s visit earlier this month. Similar agreements have been reached with other Latin American nations, but the concept of using third countries as deportation layovers has drawn strong criticism from human rights advocates.
• Beyond the conditions of their detention in Costa Rica, concerns revolve around international protections for asylum seekers and whether these deportees will be appropriately screened before being returned to their countries or sent to yet another country.
• Costa Rican President Rodrigo Chaves told reporters Wednesday that his country is helping its “economically powerful brother from the north.” It comes as Trump has pressured countries across the region to help facilitate deportations at times under the threat of steep tariffs or sanctions.
• Panama this week became the first such country to accept 299 deportees from other nations, with the government holding them in hotel rooms guarded by police. About one-third of those who refused to voluntarily return to their countries were sent to a remote camp in Darien province bordering Colombia on Wednesday. The rest were awaiting commercial flights back home.

(Source: AP News)

• Atlanta Federal Reserve President Raphael Bostic said on Thursday the U.S. central bank should still be able to lower interest rates by half a percentage point this year, though there remains extensive uncertainty about the impact of President Donald Trump's trade and immigration policies. Two quarter-percentage-point rate cuts are "my baseline expectation," Bostic told reporters on a call, but "the uncertainty around that is pretty significant ... There's a lot that could influence that in both directions."
• In an essay released on Thursday, Bostic said he did not think the U.S. is facing a new burst of inflation, though he added that there was "widespread apprehension" among businesses about how new import taxes, immigration rules, and changes to regulations will affect the outlook.
• The Fed held its benchmark interest rate in the 4.25%-4.50% range at its meeting last month and is expected to do so again at its March 18-19 meeting as officials wait for more clarity on how the economy responds to new tariffs and stricter immigration rules. Investors feel recently sticky inflation readings and the risks from tariffs and other policies may only allow the Fed to cut rates once this year.
• Housing inflation is still expected to ease, Bostic said, relieving a major remaining driver of overall price increases. The labour market is showing signs of slack even while sustaining a low unemployment rate of around 4%, and businesses say expected deregulation may ease cost pressures, he wrote.
• Firms are also planning to pass along new import taxes to consumers, he said, and are also worried about the impact stricter immigration rules may have on the availability of labour. Regarding upcoming policy shifts, "we've heard not only enthusiasm - particularly from banks, about possible shifts in tax and regulatory policies - but also widespread apprehension about future trade and immigration policy," Bostic wrote.
• Businesses generally have not reacted to Trump administration plans that remain in flux, but the situation has created "pervasive" uncertainty about the course of the economy this year, Bostic said. That may eventually lead to further interest rate cuts, but for the time being Bostic said monetary policy was "in a good place and the economy is strong ... For various reasons, this is no time for complacency."

Source: (Reuters)