• On July 28, 2025, the Board of Key Insurance Limited announced that it had been informed by GraceKennedy Financial Group Limited (GKFG) that its takeover offer to shareholders had concluded as scheduled on July 11, 2025.
• The offer was widely accepted, with a substantial portion of minority shareholders tendering their ordinary shares. Following the transfer of these shares to GKFG, the company's ownership stake in Key Insurance will increase to 98.9%.
• GKFG has also indicated that the Company’s Registrar is actively collaborating with the Jamaica Stock Exchange (JSE) and the Lead Broker to facilitate the transfer of shares to GKFG and to ensure the timely settlement of payments to accepting shareholders.
• All proceedings are being carried out under the terms of the offer and the rules governing the JSE.

(Source: JSE)

• The Bahamian economy grew moderately in the first half of 2025, slowing from 2024 due to softer stopover tourism and a nearly two percent decline in external reserves. However, the Central Bank is forecasting stronger tourism receipts later this year, driven by higher hotel rates and increased forward bookings despite steady occupancy.
• During the Central Bank’s quarterly press briefing, Governor John Rolle acknowledged the challenges facing the tourism sector and the broader economy. Some of the key challenges include U.S. travel advisories against travel and the tourism sector’s vulnerability to natural disasters, both of which pose significant risks to the broader Bahamian economy, given tourism’s central role as a primary economic driver.
• Governor Rolle further noted that data from the Central Bank shows that while stopover arrivals dipped slightly, average room rates rose, helping to offset the decline. The vacation rental segment experienced nearly a 10% rise in room sales, supporting overall tourism receipts. Meanwhile, cruise visitor numbers continued to grow steadily, providing additional revenue.
• The softer tourism growth early this year contributed to a 2.0% drop in external reserves by late July compared to the same period in 2024, reflecting the more tempered inflow of foreign currency. Commercial banks’ purchases of foreign currency from the private sector, which correlate with tourism, investments, and other activities, rose only 1.3% in the first half of 2025, down from 2.2% in the same period last year.
• Governor Rolle also noted that credit growth remained firm, with domestic banks increasing lending across consumer loans, mortgages, and commercial activities. Credit risk improved, with non-performing loans dropping from nearly 6 percent in 2024 to about 5 percent by mid-2025.
• Looking ahead, Governor Rolle conveyed cautious optimism, noting that analyses of online travel platforms, forward bookings, and pricing data indicate stronger hotel sector revenues for the remainder of 2025 compared to the latter half of 2024. This projected improvement is attributed to higher average room rates, although no corresponding increase in occupancy is currently anticipated.

(Source: Eyewitness News

• Mexico's economy likely slightly picked up steam in the second quarter, buoyed by growth in the manufacturing and service sectors that offset weakness in agricultural activity. Gross domestic product likely expanded 0.4% in the second quarter from the previous quarter in seasonally adjusted terms, according to the median forecast of 13 analysts.
• The forecast compares with 0.2% growth in the January-March period, when Latin America's second-largest economy narrowly avoided a feared technical recession. "The improvement of industrial activity, particularly in construction, and the resilience of services likely offset weak agricultural output and underpinned second-quarter growth," said Pantheon Macroeconomics.In unadjusted terms, however, the economy was seen as having expanded by 0.2% compared with the same period a year earlier, the slowest pace of growth since early 2021.
• Looking ahead, the outlook points to a challenging second half of the year, mainly due to persistent uncertainty surrounding the trade policies of the United States, Mexico's top trading partner.
• The International Monetary Fund on Tuesday updated its outlook for Mexico, forecasting the economy will grow 0.2% this year. Although that is an improvement over the 0.3% contraction expected in the IMF's April report, it would still mark the economy's worst performance since the pandemic.
• Mexico’s national statistics agency, the National Institute of Statistics and Geography of Mexico (INEGI), is scheduled to release the preliminary second-quarter GDP data on Wednesday.

(Source: Reuters)

• The International Monetary Fund raised its outlook for economic growth across emerging market and developing economies this year to 4.1% from 3.7%, driven by frontloading and a more upbeat view on China. In an update published on Tuesday to its flagship World Economic Outlook report, the IMF also nudged its 2026 economic growth forecast for emerging economies up to 4.0% from 3.9%.
• China received the largest upgrade with the IMF predicting the world's number two economy would expand 4.8% this year compared with a previous forecast for 4.0%. "This revision reflects stronger-than-expected activity in the first half of 2025 and the significant reduction in U.S.–China tariffs," the IMF said, adding that the latest forecasts assumed the U.S. effective tariff rate at 17.3% rather than the 24.4%, which formed the basis of its calculations in April.
• The IMF also noted that for all countries, "pauses on higher tariffs are assumed to remain in place past their expiration dates and higher rates are assumed not to take effect". Risks for the outlook are tilted downward, the IMF said, given the "precarious equilibrium of trade policy stances assumed in the baseline."
• The upgrade for emerging markets reflects a more optimistic outlook globally by the IMF, which nudged global GDP growth forecast up to 3.0% for 2025 and to 3.1% in 2026. However, those levels still mark a downgrade on the Fund's projections made in January.

(Source: Reuters)

• The U.S. trade deficit in goods narrowed to the lowest level in nearly two years in June as imports fell sharply, cementing economists' expectations that trade likely accounted for much of an anticipated rebound in economic growth in the second quarter.
• While the unexpected contraction reported by the Commerce Department on Tuesday prompted economists to upgrade their gross domestic product estimates for the last quarter, the steep decline in imports flagged slowing domestic demand against the backdrop of a softening labour market.
• That was reinforced by other data showing a decrease in job openings and hiring in June, as well as deterioration in consumers' perceptions of current employment availability. The reports dovetailed with the high number of people receiving unemployment checks.
• Economists say trade policy uncertainty, especially as to where President Donald Trump's tariff levels will eventually settle, has created an environment that is not conducive for businesses to make long-term plans. Imports surged in the first quarter as businesses rushed to beat higher prices ahead of the duties, contributing to the first decline in GDP in three years.
• The Trump administration has announced several trade deals, which economists said could help to ease the uncertainty. "The data suggest the second-quarter GDP report will have a solid headline, but weak details," said Bill Adams, chief economist at Comerica Bank. "The economy was on uneven, wobbly footing in the second quarter."
• The government is scheduled to publish its advance estimate of second-quarter GDP on Wednesday. A Reuters survey of economists, conducted before the release of the trade data, forecast that GDP rebounded at a 2.4% rate in the April-June period after contracting at a 0.5% pace in the first three months of this year.

S(Source: Reuters)

• Mayberry Group Limited (MGL) reported a net profit attributable to shareholders of $227.89Mn (+124.2%) for the second quarter ended June 30, 2025 (Q2 2025), up from $101.65Mn in Q2 2024.
• The Q2 2025 increase came amid the strong performance of its subsidiary, Widebase Limited, which contributed $1.58Bn in share of profit of joint venture. MGL’s joint venture refers to a 50.0% stake in Cherry Hills Development Limited – a Jamaican real estate company. However, these gains were overrun by heavy operating losses that featured higher unrealised losses, net interest expenses and operating expenses.
• Net unrealised losses on investment in associates totalled $943.70Mn – a $1.65Bn swing from the $0.71Bn unrealised gains in Q2 2024. This was driven by reductions in the market price of several key stocks in the Group’s portfolio. Similarly, the group had a $0.33Bn unrealised loss on financial instruments and a $0.32Bn loss on investment properties.
• Interest Income grew by 31.3% to $588.72Mn, but was outweighed by a 67.2% increase in interest expenses to $935.08Mn. Consequently, Net Interest Expense grew from $110.73Mn to $346.36Mn. This reflected higher interest costs due to the increase in securities sold under repurchase agreements and borrowings, which outstripped growth in interest income from margin loans and higher income earned on the company’s bond portfolio. Dividend income also fell by 50.6% for the quarter, based on dividends declared by investees.
• Operating expenses also rose to $558.76Mn, a 12.4% increase, primarily due to higher administrative costs.
• While shareholders’ profit totalled $227.89Mn, the group incurred $448.64Mn losses as $676.52Mn net losses were attributed to non-controlling interests. MGL’s Q2 2025 performance, when added to its Q1 2025 results, culminated in a net loss attributable to shareholders of $258.46Mn for the six months ended June 30, 2025 (H1 2025) as unfavourable market conditions continue to put pressure on the group’s bottom line. Nonetheless, the H1 2025 results are an improvement on the loss of $705.81Mn recorded for H1 2024.
• As at the close of trading on Monday, MGL’s stock price closed at J$7.18, reflecting a 24.2% year-to-date decline. At this price, MGL trades at a P/B of 0.57x, which is below the Main Market Financial Sector Average of 1.16x.

(Sources: MGL Financial Statements & NCBCM Research)

• For the third quarter ended June 30, 2025 (Q3 2025), Jamaican Teas Limited’s (JAMT’s) earnings cooled by 8.9% to $77.94Mn, down from $85.57Mn for Q3 2024. The decline in earnings came as direct and operating costs grew faster than revenues.
• Q3 2025 revenues increased by $122.09Mn, or 15.8% to $893.89Mn. The revenue growth was supported by an 18.0% increase across JAMT’s Manufacturing division, an 11.0% increase in its Retail Division and proceeds from a real estate sale.
• The company’s investment division also performed well, benefitting from unrealised gains in its overseas investments, particularly price appreciation from the numerous stocks listed in the U.S. However, these unrealised gains were partly offset by price declines for its local holdings.
• Meanwhile, direct expenses rose 18.6% to $709.44Mn, driven by a shift toward faster-growing but lower-margin products. As a result, gross profits improved by 6.1% but gross profit margins fell from 22.5% to 20.6%.
• Overhead costs also increased significantly to $143.97Mn (+25.2%), primarily due to higher wages, salaries, overseas travel, local advertising, and depreciation. There was also a loss before deferred tax of $92.49Mn, related to the sale of the Bell Road factory in March 2024.
• Consequently, operating profits fell by 18.5% to $116.00Mn, and the company’s operating margin fell from 18.5% to 12.9% in Q3 2025. That said, both finance costs and taxation fell by 9.1% and 44.2%, respectively.
• Similar to Q3, JAMT was profitable for the nine months ending June 30, 2025 (9M 2025). It recorded a net profit of $68.54Mn, down from $171.84Mn 9M 2024. However, management’s outlook remains cautiously optimistic as it anticipates that the fortunes of several of its largest local holdings will improve and that this will positively affect future investment income.
• That said, the 10.0% baseline tariffs are set to pose headwinds to its U.S. exports in the future. However, the company has maintained more intensive management of its export accounts around the eastern Caribbean, which has produced increases in shipping volumes of at least 10% in most of its largest accounts.
• As at the close of trading on Monday, JAMT shares stooda at J$2.35, reflecting a 4.4% increase year-to-date. JAMT currently trades at a P/E of 37.3x, which is above the Junior Market Manufacturing Sector Average of 19.97x

(Sources: JAMT Financial Statements & NCBCM Research)

• Mexican state energy company Pemex on Monday reported a net profit of 59.52Bn pesos (US$3.17Bn) for the second quarter of this year, helped largely by a more favourable exchange rate. Like most of its Latin American peers, Pemex is essentially a dollar-denominated state-owned company, with the vast majority of its spending and revenue denominated in dollars.
• In the second quarter of last year, Pemex made a net loss of 273.33Bn pesos after the Mexican peso lost value against the dollar. The company also reported a net loss of 43.30Bn pesos in the first quarter of this year.
• In a stock exchange filing, Pemex also reported that revenues fell 4.4% during the second quarter of this year to 391.62Bn pesos, which is attributed to lower crude oil sales and lower prices for petroleum products like gasoline and diesel. Earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortisation (EBITDA) were 76.00Bn pesos for the quarter.
• The world's most indebted energy company, Pemex, reported a financial debt of $98.8Bn at the end of the quarter, and it owes providers $22.79Bn. As one of Mexico's largest companies and contributors to state coffers, Pemex received 94Bn pesos in government support and paid providers more than 230Bn pesos.
• Crude oil and condensate production with partners for the quarter averaged 1.64Mn barrels per day, while natural gas production averaged 3.59Bn cubic feet per day. Company executives told investors in a call after the quarterly results were published that Pemex was still seeking to increase crude oil production to the government's goal of 1.8Mn barrels per day.
• To do so, the company would rely on so-called mixed contracts that would be offered to private companies, as well as on continued government support, the executives said.

(Source: Reuters)

• Informal employment in the Dominican Republic accounts for approximately 54.7%, according to the Regional Competitive Bulletin published on Wednesday by the Honduran Council of Private Enterprise (Cohep).
• The bulletin also states that Honduras ranks second in Central America, with the highest informal employment rate, at 82.6%, behind only Guatemala. The report reveals that Guatemala tops the list with an informality rate of 83.2%, followed by Honduras. In contrast, countries such as Costa Rica (37.4%) and the Dominican Republic (54.7%) have considerably lower levels.
• Meanwhile, El Salvador has an informality rate of 66.5%, Nicaragua 63.0%, and Panama 58.7%, the document detailed. Informal employment remains one of the main obstacles to productivity in the region, the bulletin notes, while warning that millions of workers are forced to resort to this type of employment due to the lack of opportunities in the formal economy.
• This situation exacerbates the levels of vulnerability and precariousness associated with employment, and restricts access to fundamental rights, including social protection, decent working conditions, and job security.
• In countries like Honduras and Guatemala, 8 out of 10 workers are in the informal sector. This doesn’t happen by choice; it happens due to a lack of real opportunities, and changing this reality must be a priority in our public policies, noted Alejandro Kaffati, Economic Policy Officer at Cohep, the leading private sector umbrella organisation in Honduras.
• In 2024, Central America and the Dominican Republic reached a combined Gross Domestic Product (GDP) of $498Bn, representing a growth of 2.8%, according to data from the Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean (ECLAC).
• Kaffati also emphasised that countries like Honduras, El Salvador, and Nicaragua contributed only between 4% and 7% of the region’s total GDP, which, in his opinion, “forces” countries to focus on how to boost economies from within. In addition to the individual impact, COHEP warns that informality affects the entire economy, reducing public revenues, limiting the state’s ability to address social needs, and limiting the sustainability of formal businesses.

(Source: Dominican Today)

• The United States and European Union have agreed on a trade deal, ending a months-long standoff between two of the world's biggest economic partners. After make-or-break negotiations between President Donald Trump and European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen in Scotland, the pair agreed to US tariff on all EU goods of 15%.
• That is half the 30% import tax rate Trump had threatened to implement starting on Friday. He said the 27-member bloc would open its markets to US exporters with zero per cent tariffs on certain products.
• Von der Leyen also hailed the deal, saying it would bring stability for both allies, who together account for almost a third of global trade. Sunday's agreement was announced after private talks between Trump and Von der Leyen at his Turnberry golf course in South Ayrshire.
• The commission has the mandate to negotiate trade deals for the entire bloc - but it still requires approval by EU member states, whose ambassadors will meet on Monday for a debrief from the commission.
• Trump said the EU would boost its investment in the US by US$600.0Bn (£446.0Bn), including American military equipment, and spend $750bn on energy. That investment over the next three years in American liquified natural gas, oil and nuclear fuels would, von der Leyen said, help reduce European reliance on Russian power sources.
• Some goods will not attract any tariffs, including aircraft and plane parts, certain chemicals and some agricultural products. A separate deal on semiconductors may be announced soon.
• One key area where a deal is yet to be struck is alcohol, with France and the Netherlands in particular seeking tariff exemptions for their respective wine and beer industries. However, a 50% US tariff Trump has implemented on steel and aluminium globally would stay in place, he said.

(Source: BBC)