• The Bank of Japan is set to hold off raising interest rates on Thursday but may offer a less gloomy view on the outlook after Tokyo's trade agreement with the U.S. last week, signalling rate hikes may resume later this year.
• Receding global trade tensions following Sunday's agreement between the U.S. and the European Union add relief for BoJ policymakers on the outlook of Japan's export-heavy economy. However, the BoJ is likely to warn of lingering uncertainty on how U.S. tariffs affect business activity with the hit to exports seen intensifying later this year, analysts say.
• "It's very big progress that reduces uncertainty for Japan's economy - but obviously, some uncertainty remains," BoJ Deputy Governor Shinichi Uchida said last week on the Japan-U.S. trade deal. Uchida noted questions around how soon Washington strikes trade deals with other countries, how the tariffs affect domestic and global economies and how long it could take for the tariffs' effects to be seen in hard data.
• At the two-day meeting ending on Thursday, the BoJ is widely expected to keep short-term interest rates steady at 0.5%. Markets are focusing on the bank's quarterly outlook report and Governor Kazuo Ueda's post-meeting news conference for clues on the timing of the next rate hike.
• In the quarterly report, the BoJ is likely to revise up this fiscal year's inflation forecast due to persistent rises in rice and other food costs, sources have told Reuters. The BoJ may also tweak its current view that risks to the price outlook were skewed to the downside, and offer a less gloomy view on the economy compared with the current one focused on tariff-induced risks, according to separate sources.
• The board is likely to maintain its view that inflation will durably hit its 2% target in the latter half of its three-year projection period running through fiscal 2027, they said. In current projections made on May 1, the BoJ projects core consumer inflation to hit 2.2% in fiscal 2025, before slowing to 1.7% in 2026 and 1.9% in 2027.

(Source: Reuters)

• Net Remittance Inflows to Jamaica increased by 5.9% in May 2025 year-over-year, rising from US$270.34Mn to US$286.32Mn. The increase was primarily due to a US$16.06Mn (5.6%) increase in total remittance inflows, reaching US$303.49Mn. However, this was marginally offset by a 0.5% rise in remittance outflows.
• With the 5.9% May increase, net remittances for the first five months of the 2025 calendar year (5M 2025) increased by 3.6% to US$1.33Bn compared to US$1.28Bn for 5M 2024. The 5M 2025 outturn was driven by a 3.4% increase in total remittance inflows of US$1.42Bn but was tempered by a 3.6% increase in remittance outflows totalling US$96.65Mn.
• Amid the increase, the U.S. remains the largest source market for remittance flows to Jamaica. May 2025 Remittances from the U.S. accounted for 68.2% of total flows, down from the 68.7% recorded for May 2024. Other source countries that contributed a notable share of remittances for the month were the United Kingdom (11.5%), followed by Canada (9.6%, and the Cayman Islands (6.3%).
• Looking ahead, the uncertainties around the Trump administration's trade, immigration, and other policy changes could affect remittance inflows if they result in a slowdown in the US economy. Recently, the administration announced a 1.0% excise tax on cash-based remittance, which remittance firms locally are bracing for. Still, the firms expect little fallout as strong digital adoption by consumers and years of investment in alternative remittance channels could act as key buffers.

(Sources: BOJ & NCBCM Research)

• Inter-American Development Bank (IDB) Chief of Operations for the Caribbean Region, Karisa Ribeiro, says the Boosting Innovation, Growth and Entrepreneurship Ecosystems (BIGEE) Programme remains instrumental in driving the expansion of several micro, small, and medium-sized enterprises (MSMEs) across Jamaica.
• During the Ministry of Industry, Investment and Commerce MSME Linkages Day event at the University of Technology (UTech) in St. Andrew, Ms. Ribeiro provided an update on the programme noting that over 1,400 MSMEs and 50 ecosystem institutions have received direct assistance, to date, under the programme; the beneficiary MSMEs recorded an average of 20 per cent increase in sales.
• Ribeiro said coordinated policies, targeted support, and sustained investment are vital to unlocking the MSME sector’s full potential and driving inclusive economic growth. A flagship initiative of the Development Bank of Jamaica (DBJ), BIGEE is aimed at empowering MSMEs and promoting innovation in Jamaica.
• The five-year programme, which commenced in September 2020, is funded through a US$25.0Mn IDB loan and a US$8.2Mn grant from the European Union (EU). It is intended to strengthen Jamaica’s entrepreneurial ecosystem and support MSMEs through funding, technical assistance, and mentorship.
• She further emphasised that beyond the BIGEE Programme, the IDB Group remains committed to fostering an enabling environment that equips businesses of all sizes with the tools they need to thrive.

(Source: JIS)

• Puerto Rico is ending its talks to negotiate a $20Bn liquefied natural gas (LNG) contract with New Fortress Energy (NFE). New Fortress was unwilling to discuss changes to the contract and missed a key deadline, the report said, citing Osvaldo Linares, president of Recoms Group, the island's third-party procurement office.
• The U.S. energy firm has been struggling to secure LNG for its power-generation operations on long-term agreements. Currently, the company is trying to raise cash and improve its finances by taking on partners for its primary businesses and selling some assets following its deferral of a shareholder dividend last year.
• Earlier this month, Bloomberg News reported Puerto Rico's financial watchdog had halted the supply deal over monopoly concerns. As a result of the talks ending, Puerto Rico's government is now in discussions with four other companies to provide LNG to the island under 30-day emergency contracts.
• Osvaldo Linares told Bloomberg his agency has sent a formal communication to Puerto Rico's oversight board saying negotiations had ended. A spokesperson for the Financial Oversight and Management Board of Puerto Rico confirmed receipt of the letter.
• The letter was consistent with the watchdog's observations that neither the third-party procurement office nor the government was willing to defend the terms of the contract, which had been initially submitted for review in June, the spokesperson added.

(Source: Reuters)

• S&P Global Ratings reported on July 24, 2025, that the state-owned oil company Petroleos Mexicanos (Pemex; foreign currency BBB/Stable; local currency BBB+/Stable) is expected to receive between $7Bn and $10Bn from Mexico’s pre-capitalised bond issuance due 2030. The expected inflow is to help improve its maturity profile and financing costs with respect to its roughly $100Bn in financial debt (equivalent to 7.0%-10.0% of total) as at the first quarter of 2025.
• S&P views this transaction as part of the ongoing sovereign-level liability management plan to help Pemex improve its debt composition, diversify funding sources, reduce interest expense, and improve liquidity.
• However, although the announced transaction is intended to reduce immediate financial debt pressures, this financial aid does not cover all of Pemex's short-term financial and operating liabilities, including approximately $20.0Bn due to suppliers as at March 31, 2025 (including past due and current amounts).
• That said, S&P continues to expect that the company will face a shortfall of cash sources relative to its cash needs over the next 12 months, and Pemex's capital structure will remain highly leveraged, with expected debt-to-EBITDA well above 5.0x in 2025. The company, therefore, remains dependent on sovereign support.
• Overall, S&P continues to see Pemex as a key asset, playing a central role in the Mexican government's energy policy. The high government involvement in all strategic decisions and its full ownership of the company support its view of the link between Pemex and the government. Further, the 'BBB' foreign currency rating on Pemex reflects expectations of an almost certain likelihood of extraordinary support to the company in a scenario of financial distress, which is confirmed by the current transaction.

(Source: S&P Global Ratings)

• The number of Americans filing new applications for jobless benefits fell to a three-month low last week, pointing to stable labour market conditions, though sluggish hiring is making it harder for many laid-off workers to land new opportunities.
• The lack of material labour market deterioration likely gives the Federal Reserve (Fed) cover to keep interest rates unchanged next week amid signs that President Donald Trump's aggressive tariffs on imports were starting to lift inflation. That was underscored by a survey from S&P Global on Thursday showing that businesses asked for higher prices for goods and services in July.
• Trump is pressuring the U.S. central bank to resume its interest rate cuts. However, economists expect the Fed will keep its benchmark interest rate in the 4.25%-4.50% range after the end of a two-day policy meeting next Wednesday. The Fed had cut rates three times in 2024, with the last move coming in December.
• "Trump 2.0 economic policies have not brought the economy to its knees yet, although whether this continues to be the case going forward remains an open question," said Christopher Rupkey, chief economist at FWDBONDS. "The weekly jobless claims give Fed officials no cover whatsoever if they are seriously thinking of cutting interest rates at next week's meeting."
• Initial claims for state unemployment benefits dropped 4,000 to a seasonally adjusted 217,000 for the week ended July 19, 2025, the lowest level since April, the Labour Department said. Economists polled by Reuters had forecast 226,000 claims for the latest week. Claims have declined for six straight weeks and have pulled further away from an eight-month high touched in June. Unadjusted claims decreased by 45,319 to 215,792 last week.
• Though there have been some layoffs, employers have been mostly reluctant to fire workers, opting instead to scale back on hiring while awaiting more clarity on the Trump administration's protectionist trade policy. Uncertainty over where tariff levels will ultimately settle continued to weigh on business sentiment in July, according to a survey from S&P Global, even as activity picked up. The survey's measures of prices paid by businesses for inputs, as well as what they charged for goods and services, rose this month.

(Source: Reuters)

• Britain and India signed a free trade agreement on Thursday, July 24, 2025, during a visit by Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi. The agreement represents a deal to cut tariffs on goods from textiles to whisky and cars, and allow more market access for businesses.
• Talks on the trade pact were concluded in May after three years of stop-start negotiations, with both sides hastening efforts to clinch a deal in the shadow of tariff turmoil unleashed by U.S. President Donald Trump.
• The agreement between the world's fifth and sixth largest economies aims to increase bilateral trade by a further £25.5Bn (US$34Bn) by 2040. This marks Britain's most significant trade agreement since its departure from the European Union (EU) in 2020. However, its overall impact is likely to be modest compared to the far-reaching effects of severing economic ties with its closest trading partner. Additionally, this agreement represents India's most substantial strategic partnership with an advanced economy, potentially serving as a model for future comprehensive deals with the EU and other global regions.
• Both sides hailed the trade agreement as a historic deal which will take effect following a ratification process, likely within a year, after which firms such as whisky distiller Diageo, and carmakers including BMW, Nissan, Aston Martin and Tata-owned Jaguar Land Rover could benefit from lower duties.
• British Prime Minister Keir Starmer noted that there would be huge benefits for both countries, making trade cheaper, quicker and easier in a new global era for trade. Modi called the agreement "a blueprint for our shared prosperity," highlighting how Indian goods from textiles to jewellery and seafood would secure better market access.
• The countries also agreed on a partnership covering areas such as defence and climate, and aim to strengthen co-operation on tackling crime. The trade deal came about quickly after Britain's new Labour government restarted negotiations in February.

(Source: Reuters)

• The Jamaica Stock Exchange (JSE) has noted that it is aware of a report made on July 13, 2025, alleging the possible disclosure of personal data and trading information pertaining to an individual investor (Data Subject). The matter was brought to the JSE's attention through a media article and subsequent correspondence from the Data Subject.
• Upon receipt of this report, the JSE activated its internal incident response protocols and launched a comprehensive investigation. In accordance with Jamaica’s Data Protection Act of 2020, the relevant broker—being the designated Data Controller—was promptly notified, given that the JSE processes personal data on the broker’s behalf.
• Its Information Technology team, supported by cybersecurity experts, conducted a detailed review of all relevant systems, controls, and security logs. Based on the forensic analysis undertaken, there was no evidence of any compromise of the Jamaica Stock Exchange’s infrastructure or network, nor any unauthorised or suspicious access to the personal data in question.
• The JSE noted that it remains unwavering in its commitment to data protection and market integrity, as the confidentiality and security of personal data and trading information are fundamental to the trust and confidence placed in us by its stakeholders.

(Source: JSE)

• The Consumer Affairs Commission (CAC) will begin consultations this September on the draft Code of Conduct for microcredit institutions. The Code will govern the conduct of microcredit licensees in consumer-related matters, addressing issues such as predatory lending and unethical practices within the sector.
• It will also outline minimum customer service standards to ensure transparency, fairness, and accountability across the industry. Chief Executive Officer (CEO) of the CAC, Dolsie Allen, highlighted that the Code of Conduct will foster a transparent, ethical, and responsible microcredit sector – one that protects borrowers and strengthens the industry as a whole.
• She noted that the CAC has been designated under the Microcredit Act as the agency responsible for investigating and resolving complaints brought by consumers against microcredit institutions.
• Mrs. Allen emphasised that heightened regulation is especially important, given the exponential growth of the microcredit sector and the emergence of deceptive lending practices.
• The microcredit sector is regulated by the Bank of Jamaica (BOJ), which serves as the administrator of the Microcredit Act and is responsible for licensing and supervising microcredit institutions.

(Source: JIS)

• President Luis Abinader underscored the vital role of the tobacco industry in the Dominican Republic’s economy during his weekly press conference, La Semanal con la Prensa. He noted that Dominican tobacco is more than an agricultural product—it symbolises national pride, job creation, and economic growth, with annual sales surpassing US$1.34Bn and representing 10% of the country’s total exports.
• Tobacco now ranks as the nation’s third-largest export, behind only gold and medical supplies. Since 2019, exports have increased by over US$400Mn, reflecting the sector’s remarkable expansion.
• Abinader also emphasised the industry’s contribution to employment, with more than 122,000 direct jobs and thousands more indirectly, including 40,000 roles in Tamboril alone—20% of the total sector workforce—where the unemployment rate is currently 0%.
• Tobacco production has also seen significant growth. The country currently has 29 designated tobacco-growing regions across 15 provinces, and the 2024–2025 harvest is expected to yield 330,000 quintals of tobacco. Abinader concluded by framing the sector as a cornerstone of the country’s economic and cultural identity.

(Source: CariCRIS)