• The Bank of Japan will hike interest rates only once more this year, most likely during the third quarter to 0.75%, according to a majority of economists in a Reuters poll published on Thursday. The survey also showed analysts' median prediction for the rate of pay increases in wage talks this year is 5%, close to last year's 33-year-high, an encouraging sign for the BOJ to continue raising interest rates.
• It would leave the BOJ as a rare global outlier pushing for higher rates, albeit from a very low level, even as other major central banks cut rates to shore up their economies as concerns mount over U.S. President Donald Trump's tariff policies. All 61 economists in the February 12-18 poll expected borrowing costs to remain unchanged in the March 18-19 meeting and only a small minority, 19 of 61, saw at least one 25-basis-point hike to 0.75% next quarter.
• Over 65% of respondents, 38 of 58, predicted a rate hike to 0.75% in July or September. The Japanese swap market is pricing in another 35 basis points of rate hikes through to the end of the year or a 69% chance of two further 25-basis point increases.
• In January the BOJ raised its short-term interest rate to 0.50% from 0.25%, the highest since the 2008 global financial crisis, reflecting its conviction Japan was making progress in sustainably achieving its 2.0% inflation target. A BOJ board member said on Wednesday the central bank must increase borrowing costs more as keeping them at current low levels could cause excessive risk-taking and cause an inflation spike.
• Separately, the median of 28 economists who offered their view on the rate of pay increases at this year's spring labour-management negotiations was 5%, up from 4.75% in a poll last month. It was the first time the poll median touched 5% for wage increases.

(Source: Reuters)

• Wigton Energy Limited (Wigton), formerly known as Wigton Wind Farm, saw its profits decline for the 9 months ending December 31, 2024 (9M 2025), as headwinds to its Q3 2025 performance added to already weak performance for the first 6 months of its financial year.
• Q3 Sales and other income, which constitute total revenues, fell by 16.6% and 56.1% to J$370.38Mn and J$25.42Mn, respectively. However, 9M revenues are still up 3.2%, owing to higher energy production levels up to June 2024 and a business interruption insurance provision of $239.4Mn after Hurricane Beryl.
• Q3 direct costs fell 10.2% over the quarter but it only partially offset the fall in revenues, resulting in a 25.6% gross profit decline to J$138.20Mn. Meanwhile, operating costs rose 26.8% amid higher general administrative expenses. As a result, Wigton had a Q3 operating loss of J$23.22Mn, down from an operating profit of J$96.15Mn in the previous year (Q3 2024).
• However, finance expenses declined for the quarter, down by 16.1% as the Company continues to benefit from the March 2022 restatement of its Bonds, which introduced lower interest rates and quarterly principal payments.
• With the lower revenues and higher operating expenses, the company experienced a net loss of J$81.38Mn for Q3 2025 and when added to its weakened H1 2025 performance resulted in a 9M 2025 net profit of J$228.42Mn (-53.4%year on year).
• Going forward Wigton is looking to achieve sustained profitable growth by diversifying into other renewable energy solutions while improving operational efficiency and seeking solo or partnered investment opportunities. Successful execution will be critical to drive earnings growth and growing shareholder value.
• At the close of the stock market on February 19, 2025, Wigton's share price stood at $1.24, implying a P/E ratio of 20.0x, which is below the average for the Energy, Industrials and Materials (EIM^[1]) industry of 23.66x.

(Sources: JSE & NCBCM Research)

^[1] The EIM industry consists of CCC, MPCCEL, WIG, TJH, KW, and BRG

• News that Controladora Dolphin S.A. de C.V (Dolphin Discovery Group) – the owner of local tourist attraction, Dolphin Cove (DCOVE) and other dolphinariums^[1] – filed for bankruptcy sent DCOVE’s stock on the Jamaica Stock Exchange (JSE) diving this week.
• The dolphinariums of Eduardo Albor, who is the president, is said to owe more than US$200Mn in liabilities to funds associated with Prudential Insurance, Cigna Insurance and Life Insurance. According to a report by El Heraldo de Mexico, Gerardo Badín, Mexican Insolvency Conciliator, was appointed as the inspector/conciliador to oversee the bankruptcy proceedings.
• The group of dolphinariums is considered one of the largest in the world. Still, it has been in decline, apparently due to the termination of the contract of the Miami Seaquarium dolphinarium in April 2024 and subsequent eviction proceedings initiated by Miami-Dade County. This followed concerns from the United States Department of Agriculture over the mistreatment of animals and repeated violations of animal welfare by the Miami Seaquarium.
• Following the news, DCOVE’s shares on the JSE sank by 29.1% to $15.18 between Tuesday and Wednesday, wiping out J$1.73Bn (US$10.95Mn) in market capitalisation after the reports emerged about its Parent Company’s filings.
• Under Mexican law, a "debt restructuring" process, also known as a "concurso mercantil," would allow a company like Dolphin Discovery to negotiate with its creditors to extend the repayment period of its debts, allowing it to continue operations while negotiating payment terms with creditors.
• That said, the Dolphin Company has since shared a statement clarifying that Controladora has filed to restructure its financial liabilities under the protection and supervision of a Mexican court specialised in financial debt restructuring. The report expressed that this process is not considered a bankruptcy filing but rather a mechanism provided by Mexican laws to facilitate an agreement with the main creditors, protecting the interests of other suppliers, employees, and customers, as well as the company’s assets for its benefit. The company also expressed that it will define the best strategies to facilitate the fulfilment of its obligations in the medium and long term, while also continuing its development and expansion.

(Sources: Reportur, NBC Miami, NCBCM Research)

• China will always be Latin America's "trustworthy" friend and partner, its foreign minister told his Bolivian counterpart, as Beijing looks to improve its foothold in a region historically under the U.S. sphere of influence.
• China wants to "continuously elevate the China-Bolivia strategic partnership", Wang told Bolivia's Foreign minister Celinda Sosa. Bolivia, which established diplomatic ties with Beijing in 1985, is among many countries in South America that have bonded economically with China through debt and investment.
• The resource-rich country owes China, the world's biggest bilateral lender, over US$1.7Bn according to World Bank data. Chinese firms have invested a further US$6.0Bn, statistics from the American Enterprise Institute think tank show, mostly in Bolivia's metals, energy and transport sectors. U.S. foreign direct investment in Bolivia stands at around US$430.0Mn, U.S. State Department data shows, predominantly in the oil and gas and manufacturing sectors.
• The U.S. and China look set to go toe-to-toe in Central and South America over U.S. President Donald Trump's second term, with Chinese investments in the region, particularly in energy and infrastructure, challenging U.S. influence.
• "China supports Latin American countries in defending their sovereignty, independence and national dignity," Wang said. He also congratulated Bolivia on becoming a member of BRICS, a group of developing nations founded by Brazil, Russia, India and China to rival a Western-dominated world order. The group has since grown to also include South Africa, Egypt, Ethiopia, Indonesia, Iran, Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates.
• Trump has repeatedly warned the BRICS not to challenge the dominance of "the mighty U.S. dollar," and threatened members with a 100% tariff "if they want to play games with the dollar."

(Source: Reuters)

• Panama's security minister said on Tuesday that more than half of the migrants deported from the United States to transit point Panama in recent days had accepted voluntary repatriations to their home countries, largely in Asia or the Middle East.
• U.S. President Donald Trump's administration deported the migrants on three flights, part of his crackdown on unlawful migration. “The 299 migrants have been staying at a hotel in Panama City under the protection of local authorities and with the financial support of the United States through the International Organization for Migration and the U.N. refugee agency,” Security Minister Frank Abrego said.
• "Today I can tell you that 171 of the (migrants) have accepted to return voluntarily," said Abrego, adding that the others will leave gradually when the U.N. provides them with their return transportation.
• In the interim, those migrants will likely be transferred to a shelter near the Darien Gap jungle in southern Panama that connects Central America with South America.
• After talks with U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio this month, Panama's President Jose Raul Mulino announced that a deal signed in July with the U.S. Department of Homeland Security could be expanded so that Venezuelan, Colombian and Ecuadorean migrants could also be repatriated from Panama.

(Source: Reuters)

• British inflation sped up by more than expected to hit a 10-month high of 3.0% in January and is likely to rise further soon, testing the Bank of England's confidence that price pressures will ease over the longer term.
• The BoE and economists polled by Reuters expected inflation to rise by less, to 2.8%, after December's reading of 2.5%. The Office for National Statistics said the increase in January was driven largely by a smaller-than-usual drop in airfares that month - a volatile component that had pushed inflation down in December - and a rise in automotive fuel prices
• Food prices also rose, while another factor was the increase in private school fees after the decision by the government of Prime Minister Keir Starmer to charge value-added tax on them. Overall, services prices - which feature prominently in the debate at the BoE about how quickly to cut interest rates - rose sharply to 5.0% from 4.4%, but by less than the 5.2% rate expected by economists or the central bank. The Sterling momentarily strengthened against the dollar after the figures were published before quickly settling back to its pre-release level.
• Finance Minister Rachel Reeves' decision to increase employers' social security contributions comes into effect on April 1 when Britain's minimum wage is also due to rise by almost 7%, raising questions about how much the increased costs for businesses will feed into prices. Ruth Gregory, an economist with Capital Economics, said she still thought the BoE would continue to cut borrowing costs gradually but "the risk is that the rise in inflation proves more persistent and rates are cut more slowly than we expect, or not as far".
• The BoE forecasts that consumer price inflation will peak at 3.7% in the third quarter of 2025, driven mostly by higher energy costs and regulated tariffs for items such as domestic water supply. But Governor Andrew Bailey and his colleagues say an expected slowdown in the jobs market is likely to keep a lid on higher wage demands this year, limiting the risk of a build-up of inflation pressure. Core inflation, which excludes energy, food, alcohol and tobacco prices, rose to 3.7% from 3.2% in January, in line with the Reuters poll.

Source: (Reuters)

• The Japanese government on Wednesday stuck to its view that the economy was recovering moderately but flagged U.S. trade policies as key factors to watch as President Donald Trump's proposals on tariffs cast uncertainty over the economic outlook.
• In its monthly economic report for February, the Cabinet Office maintained its overall economic assessment for the seventh consecutive month, as persistent inflation, particularly of everyday items chips away at consumer appetite.
• "Although data showed year-on-year increases (in wages) are continuing, the growth in consumption is suppressed when compared with the growth in income," a Cabinet Office official said upon the report's release.
• Japan's economy grew at a faster-than-expected annualised rate of 2.8% in the October-December quarter on gains in business spending and a surprise increase in consumption, gross domestic product (GDP) data showed this week.
• Trump has raised levies on imported steel and aluminium, is targeting automobiles, and has directed his economic team to devise plans for reciprocal tariffs on every country that taxes U.S. imports. Such proposals have stoked uncertainty for investors and policymakers and buffeted global financial markets.
• Transport equipment including automobiles account for 36% of Japan's 21.3 trillion yen ($140.12Bn) exports to the U.S., the Cabinet Office said. The transport machinery manufacturing industry accounts for 3% of Japan's GDP. The government raised its assessment on exports for the first time in 18 months, attributing it to an increase in exports of machine tools to China as well as chip-making equipment to South Korea, Taiwan and Southeast Asian countries.

(Source: Reuters)

• After a tepid first-quarter performance, Fontana Limited’s (Fontana’s) net profits were down 4.3% to $326.58Mn for its second quarter of 2025 when compared to Q2 2024. The falloff occurred despite the company hitting record-high revenues for the period. Revenue and operating profit growth were negated by higher expenses, including taxes.
• Revenues rose by 15.3% to $2.71Bn, aided by increases across all locations, with the Portmore store improving substantially over its prior year. Other income – which includes interest income, commission and rental income – also grew by 25.6% to $326.58Mn, likely reflecting the company’s efforts to tap into new revenue streams in the Portmore store.
• Meanwhile, costs of goods sold (COGS) outpaced revenue growth by 17.9% to $1.65Bn, resulting in an 11.5% growth in gross profits to $1.06Bn. As a result, gross profit margins declined marginally from 40.5% to 39.2%.
• Operating expenses also increased (+16.2%), ending the quarter at $687.87Mn, reflecting the additional operating costs associated with the Portmore store, which opened in November 2023. As such, Q2 2024 did not fully reflect the company’s new cost structure.  Overall, the increased expenses were mainly driven by staffing costs, industrial security guard expenses, retirement provisions for senior staff (2025), and reclassification of its pharmacist salaries to remain competitive with the GOJ. As a result, operating income grew modestly by 3.9% to $375.31Mn.
• Higher taxation charges amounting to $49.44Mn compared to nil in the corresponding quarter, also eroded Fontana’s bottom line. Fontana’s 5-year tax-free benefit for listing on the Junior Market ended in January 2024. However, it will still benefit from paying taxes at half the normal rate for another five years. 
• Against this background, there was a 4.3% decline in net profits to $326.78Mn for Q2 2025. With the Q2 performance, net profits amounted to $387.05Mn (-3.8%) for H1 2025.
• With expense growth outpacing revenues, expense control and efficiency measures will be critical to driving bottom-line growth, especially as the company seeks to acquire a new business. While it has succeeded in reducing general insurance and utilities costs, greater expense management will be needed. Fontana is in the due diligence process for its recently announced acquisition of the Monarch chain of pharmacies, which should support revenue growth once fully onboarded. However, cost synergies will be important to continue driving bottom-line growth
• Fontana’s stock price has declined by 12.9% since the start of the year but is up 17.6% since the Monarch acquisition announcement on January 23, 2025. The stock closed Tuesday’s trading session at $9.16, with a P/E ratio of 19.91x, below the Junior Market Distribution Sector average of 30.07x.

(Sources: JSE & NCBCM Research)

• For the quarter ended December 31, 2024, Mailpac has noted record-breaking revenue growth which has led to a 23.8% increase in earnings for the company.
• Revenues increased by 78.7% to J$839.42Mn, driven by the acquisition of MyCart Express, the increased demand for the logistics and e-commerce solutions offered by the Group, and the enhancement of our customer experience and store locations.
• Costs of Goods also rose by 65.3%, resulting in gross profits of J$324.35Mn (+94.1%). This resulted in gross profit margins moving from 46.4% to 50.4%.  The improvement is attributed to increased operational efficiencies and negotiated cost reductions achieved through economies of scale.
• Meanwhile, operating expenses doubled (+108.2%) resulting in operating profits totalling J$120.11Mn, a 65.8% increase year-on-year. Financing costs also rose by 167.6%, coinciding with higher lease liability payments.
• Against that background, Mailpac recorded a 23.8% increase in net profits to J$56.94Mn. However, the gain was not enough to offset previous quarters, with net profits falling by 2.7% to J$253.15Mn for the year ended December 31, 2024.
• Mailpac’s stock price has declined by 3.4% since the start of the year. The stock closed Tuesday’s trading session at $2.60, with a P/E ratio of 86.67x, above the Junior Market Distribution Sector average of 30.07x

(Sources: JSE and NCBCM Research

• The co-operative sector continues to be a major contributor to the island’s economic growth, says the chair of the International Year of Co-operatives (IYC) 2025 Committee, Oriel Doyle, as he addressed a press conference to discuss plans for the year.
• Doyle told the media that over 180,000 Barbadians were involved in the movement and encouraged those who were not members to do so. He expressed the view that the sector has not been given the “pride of place it deserves”, especially when one considers its contribution over the years, particularly during hard times.
• “When financial institutions found it quite challenging to provide financial support to Barbadians, the credit union sector emerged, especially in the 80s and 90s, and created an element of satisfaction among Barbadians in that their financial needs were met.” he stated.
• Doyle pointed out that the co-operative sector in Barbados was extremely important to the daily lives of over 90.0% of its citizens. He shared that there were 24 credit unions and 26 active co-operative businesses, and added that collectively, they made a significant contribution to the development of the country. The sector employs an estimated 3,000 individuals, provides billions in loans to Barbadians, and invests millions of dollars in government paper and direct funding.
• About the IYC 2025, he noted that local officials had already begun to set up the national committee. He disclosed that two representatives from each co-operative organisation in Barbados are being invited to complete the structure of the committee.

(Source: Caribbean News Global)