IMF Projects Economic Growth of 2.8% For Antigua and Barbuda

  • The International Monetary Fund (IMF) says Antigua and Barbuda's economic expansion continued in 2025, supported by a pickup in construction, alongside easing inflationary pressures.
  • An IMF delegation headed by economist David Moore has ended a two-week mission to the Caribbean island, noting that the most recent data indicate real gross domestic product (GDP) growth of 2.5% in 2024, reflecting a mix of strong tourist arrivals and slower construction activity. It said that for 2025, staff estimates growth at 3%, reflecting a mix of rebounding construction activity but flat tourist arrivals. Inflation, which had averaged 6.2% in 2024, moderated to an estimated 1.2% in 2025, in part reflecting substantial one-off declines in transportation prices.
  • The public debt burden has eased substantially in recent years, but significant arrears and financing needs are ongoing challenges. The IMF said that the debt-to-GDP ratio, which peaked around 100% during the pandemic shock in 2020, has since fallen to an estimated 68% in 2025, narrowing the gap with the Eastern Caribbean Currency Union (ECCU) benchmark of 60% by 2035.
  • Nevertheless, substantial arrears to Paris Club1 and domestic creditors and high gross financing needs have persisted, with the IMF noting that the authorities are continuing the process of validating the extent of their arrears to domestic suppliers and are pursuing a liability management operation with a view to refinancing domestic debt, reducing arrears, and financing resilience-building projects.
  • However, the risk to Antigua and Barbuda’s economy is centred on a major shift in European Union policy as of late 2025, which now treats the mere operation of a Citizenship by Investment (CBI) program as an inherent security threat and sufficient grounds to suspend visa-free Schengen access. This "clampdown" is compounded by a December 2025 U.S. executive order that imposed partial entry restrictions on Antiguan nationals, specifically citing CBI security concerns, a development the February 2026 IMF mission warned creates significant "downside risks" for a country relying on these inflows to manage its 68% debt-to-GDP ratio.
  • Because CBI revenue has become a critical pillar for financing climate resilience and servicing persistent debt arrears to the Paris Club, any move by the EU to follow through on its ultimatum for "phased discontinuation" of these schemes would likely collapse investor demand and trigger a severe fiscal shock, destabilising the island's recent economic gains.

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1The Paris Club is an informal, voluntary group of major creditor nations, primarily wealthy OECD members, dedicated to finding sustainable solutions for payment difficulties faced by debtor countries.