Below Consensus On Peru, Panama Growth

  • Fitch Solutions forecast the Peruvian economy will contract 10.7% y-o-y in 2020, a more downbeat view than the Bloomberg consensus estimate of a 9.0% decline.
  • The domestic outbreak of Covid-19 will disproportionately affect Peru as stringent restrictions on business activity and personal mobility combine with weak global demand for exports to cause substantial contractions throughout much of 2020.
  • That said, Fitch expects sustained fiscal stimulus measures and a positive investment outlook will aid Peru’s rebound in the medium-to-long term, with real GDP growth of 5.2% in 2021.

(Source: Fitch)