WTO Tempers Hopes For A V-Shaped Rebound, Sees L-Shape Possible

• Global trade is starting to crawl back after collapsing to a record low in June, the World Trade Organization said, but the outlook remains too murky to conclude whether a sharp rebound will be happening or the recovery will muddle along for months.
• The Geneva-based organization’s latest Goods Trade Barometer fell to 84.5 in June, compared with a level of 87.6 in May and 95.5 in February. Readings of 100 indicate growth over the next quarter in line with medium-term trends, while those higher or lower than 100 points to growth above or below the recent trend.
• The WTO previously projected that trade flows could fall by as much as 30% and potentially exceed the losses seen during the Great Depression. The latest report said that scenario now seems less likely as trade flows remain on-trend for an 18.5% decline in the second quarter of 2020.

 (Source: Bloomberg)