Weaker Oil Rebound And Covid-19 Disruptions Will Slow Ecuador's Fiscal Consolidation

  • Fitch Solutions revised its forecast for Ecuador’s 2021 fiscal deficit to 4.7% of GDP, from 2.8% previously, as lower average oil prices and the lingering impact of Covid-19 weigh on Ecuador's revenue growth and slow the pace of fiscal consolidation.
  • Ecuador’s fiscal deficit is expected to narrow from a forecasted 7.0% in 2020 as the government continues to constrain expenditures and a return to economic growth supports a modest rebound in revenues.
  • Ecuador’s debt levels will climb to 63.9% of GDP in 2020 from 52.8% in 2019, supported by continued IMF and other multilateral financings.

(Source: Fitch Solutions)