Jamaica recorded 6.7% GDP growth in the 4th Quarter of 2021

  • The Jamaican economy continued to show signs of recovery from the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic and grew by 6.7% during Q4 2021 when compared to Q4 2020. 
  • This was due to increases in both the Services Industries (+9.0%) and the Goods Producing Industries (0.5%). The expansion of the economy was positively impacted by the relaxation of some COVID-19 measures, including the easing of global travel restrictions and reduced curfews hours. 
  • There was growth in all the Services Industries, except the Producers of Government Services, which declined by 0.1%. Improved performances were recorded for: Hotels & Restaurants (79.5%), Transport, Storage & Communication (10.1%), Wholesale & Retail Trade; Repairs; Installation of Machinery & Equipment (10.6%), Other Services (10.4%), Finance & Insurance Services (2.7%), Real Estate, Renting & Business Activities (2.1%) and Electricity & Water Supply (5.8%). 
  • Within the Goods Producing Industries, there were higher output levels for Agriculture, Forestry & Fishing of 13.8% and the Construction industry of 5.9%. However, there were declines in the Manufacturing and Mining & Quarrying industries of 2.2% and 60.5% respectively. The decline in Mining & Quarrying was due primarily to the major fire that occurred at the Jamaica Aluminum Company (JAMALCO) plant in August 2021, which resulted in reduced activities at the plant in the fourth quarter of 2021. 
  • We expect the mining industry to continue to contract in 2022 as the Alpart and Jamalco plants remain completely closed. The Alpart plant has been closed since 2019 to facilitate modernisation and expansion, following the fire in August 2021. It is estimated that the Jamalco plant will also remain closed until June 2022, when it will be partially reopened. The falloff in alumina production is occurring at a time when global aluminum prices are up 20.4% year to date due to the Russian Ukraine conflict. The decline in production at this time means that the island will not capture much of the benefit associated with the higher price. 
  • Preliminary estimates for the calendar year 2021 showed that the economy grew by 4.6% with the Services Industries and the Goods Producing Industries expanding by 4.7% and 4.3%, respectively.

(Source: STATIN & NCBCM Research)