Here’s What To Watch In Friday’s Big October Jobs Report
- Despite frequent predictions of a hiring slowdown in the U.S. job market, the consensus on Wall Street is that the October nonfarm payrolls report will show a sharp decline in job growth from the previous month. Economists anticipate only 170,000 new jobs, down from the prior month's 336,000.
- Contrary to expectations, some experts believe the job market remains resilient. Employers are still actively hiring, even though some trends like aggressive job switching and large wage gains are showing signs of reversing. Employers are offering incentives like flexible work scheduling to attract new talent.
- The labour force participation rate is slightly below its pre-pandemic level, and this will be closely watched. Wages increased by 4.2% from the previous year in September, but this is expected to decrease to 4% for October. Wages are a key component of inflation, and policymakers are monitoring this closely.
- Employers have been hiring more part-time workers in recent months while full-time positions have decreased. The rise in the jobless rate, which is approaching the threshold set by Sahm's Rule for potential recession, could be a concerning economic indicator. Additionally, strikes by American workers may have an impact on the October jobs report.
- High-frequency data from sources like Homebase suggests that employment levels and hours worked have declined in October, indicating a potential downward trend in the job market.