Trinidad and Tobago: Expected Hydrocarbon Production Growth in 2025 and Beyond

• Trinidad and Tobago’s (T&T) economy is expected to grow by 1.3% in 2025, supported by expected increases in hydrocarbon production and stable domestic consumption.
• Following years of declining hydrocarbon production, Fitch Solutions forecast a reversal of this trend in 2025, with an uptick in overall hydrocarbon production and exports.
• While liquefied natural gas (LNG) production saw year-on-year declines in the first half of 2024 (H1 2024), data from H2 2024 and the first quarter (Q1) of 2025 indicate an upward production trend. Output rose by 12.8% year-over-year (YoY) in Q4 2024 and by 7.7% in January 2025.
• Fitch’s Oil and Gas team forecasts full-year growth at 2.0%. Furthermore, given the importance of Trinidad and Tobago’s energy sector to the overall economy and exports (energy accounted for 82.5% of exports in Q3 2024), expected increases in overall hydrocarbon output in 2025 are a welcome development, though declining prices pose risks to growth.
• Building on increased production and exports in 2025, Fitch anticipates a larger uptick in total hydrocarbon production in 2026 as new fields come online, boosting exports and supporting growth.
• However, T&T’s energy sector suffered a setback in April 2025, with the U.S. government rescinding existing licenses to Shell and BP to develop the Dragon and Manakin-Cocuina gas fields – joint developments with Venezuela – to increase pressure on President Maduro’s government. While Fitch’s forecast does not factor in increased output from these projects, this is a setback for T&T’s gas industry moving forward.

(Source: Fitch Connect)