Costa Rica’s Strong Growth and High-Value Sectors to Keep Current Account Steady

  • Fitch forecasts that Costa Rica’s current account deficit will remain stable, edging up slightly from 1.4% of GDP in 2024 to 1.5% in 2025, before reaching 1.6% in 2026. This reflects a modest deterioration in the goods trade deficit, which is expected to widen from 2.6% of GDP to 3.8%.
  • Agricultural exports underperformed in Q1 2025, reinforcing the view that pineapples, bananas, and coffee—highly reliant on the US market—remain among the most exposed to trade disruptions and falling global food prices. Therefore, a slowdown in the US will likely deepen this contraction in H2 2025 and 2026. 
  • However, medical devices, which account for just under half (43%) of total goods exports, are expected to remain insulated. These high-value products are deeply integrated into US supply chains, and many multinational manufacturers operate locally to take advantage of lower labour costs. As a result, Fitch is not overly concerned about broader export disruption.
  • Meanwhile, imports are expected to slow as a share of GDP, from 25.5% in 2024 to 24.3%, owing to the negative terms of trade effects from lower oil prices, Costa Rica’s main import. In contrast, input purchases and consumer goods imports are expected to remain strong, as household consumption remains a key driver of growth in 2025. Overall, the goods trade balance posted a deficit of 1.0% of GDP in Q1, slightly narrower than the 1.2% recorded in the same period last year.
  • That said, both the service trade surplus and primary income deficit are set to improve in 2025, with the former rising from 9.3% of GDP to 10% and the latter narrowing from 8.6% to 8.2%. Service exports will remain strong, supported by Costa Rica’s role in global value chains for business services, IT, and other high-value sectors.
  • On the primary income side, lower interest payments due to fiscal consolidation will help reduce net income outflows. Although rising FDI inflows could limit further improvement by increasing profit repatriation, this should be partially offset by a continued trend toward reinvestment, particularly in free trade zones.

(Source: Fitch Solutions – BMI)