Jamaica’s P2P Inflation Rate Plummets to Record Low

• Despite a slight increase in consumer prices for August, the Point to Point (P2P) inflation rate was 1.2%. This was 2.1% percentage points lower than the 3.3% recorded for July 2024 to July 2025.
• The divisions making the largest contribution to the point-to-point inflation rate were ‘Restaurant and Accommodation Services’ (+5.2%), ‘Education’ (+9.8%), and ‘Information and Communication’ (-5.8%).
• Consumer prices rose 0.3% in August 2025, with the All-Jamaica Consumer Price Index (CPI) increasing from 142.0 in July to 142.4 in August. The monthly increase was driven mainly by a 0.8% rise in the index for the ‘Food and Non-Alcoholic Beverages’ division. Within this division, the index for ‘Food’ rose 0.9%, reflecting higher prices for fresh produce. The 0.9 per cent increase in the index for the ‘Recreation, Sport and Culture’ division, due to increased prices for textbooks and stationery.
• Calendar year-to-date (YTD) inflation rate as at August 2025 was -0.8%, well below the calendar YTD rate of 2.9% for August 2024.
• With inflation falling further below the BOJ’s target band, conditions remain favourable for the central bank to accelerate monetary easing to stimulate domestic demand. Of note, despite inflation being below its target range, the Bank of Jamaica (BOJ) kept the policy rate unchanged at 5.75% its last meeting in August, citing global uncertainties. It also projected that near-term inflation readings are expected to remain below the lower bound due to cheaper electricity and stronger agricultural output, before gradually rising toward the midpoint. However, the sharp decline in P2P in August may heighten market expectations for a rate cut at the upcoming September 29 meeting.

(Sources: STATIN, Bank of Jamaica & NCBCM Research)