T&T Faces LNG Revenue Risks Amid Global Oversupply

• Trinidad and Tobago's (T&T) energy sector could face growing challenges in the coming years as the global liquefied natural gas (LNG) market heads toward oversupply, the Energy Chamber of T&T has warned. The warning comes in the wake of recent statements by TotalEnergies CEO Patrick Pouyanné.
• While demand for natural gas is projected to rise by more than 20% by 2050 compared with 2024, Pouyanné cautioned that the rapid expansion of LNG capacity, particularly in the US, Qatar, and Canada, could push global prices down. 'There is a point where we'll face some oversupply,' Pouyanné said, highlighting the potential challenges for producers even as lower prices benefit consumers. Pouyanné also noted that lower LNG prices could make the fuel competitive with the price of coal in key growth markets, including China, potentially triggering a shift from coal and diesel to natural gas. This transition could establish a foundational long-term demand base, supporting future supply cycles.
• The Energy Chamber said the potential future decline in LNG prices raises key considerations for a country like T&T, where short-term prices of energy commodities have a direct relation to the revenue earned by the government through taxes and other revenue. 'LNG is Trinidad and Tobago's major export and source of foreign exchange. Since the Russian invasion of Ukraine and Europe's moves to stop imports of Russian pipeline gas, LNG prices in both Europe and Asia have been at historically high levels. European and East Asian LNG import prices are currently over US$11.00 per mmsf compared to the US Henry Hub benchmark price of under US$3,' it stated.
• The renegotiated Atlantic marketing arrangements mean that Trinidad & Tobago's wellhead gas prices reflect these high Asian and European LNG prices; however, future LNG price decreases could put further strain on government revenue and foreign exchange earnings. This potential for declining LNG prices highlights the importance of a national policy where there is a range of different export routes for natural gas, rather than relying solely on LNG.
• 'Maintaining a portfolio of different routes to monetise gas is an important strategic national policy consideration, underlining the importance of ensuring that there is a diversity of downstream gas processing facilities in the country, including petrochemicals such as methanol and ammonia. This means that there is a broader portfolio of export commodities and potentially provides some greater stability in export earnings and government revenue,' the Energy Chamber stated.

(Source: Trinidad Express Newspapers)