Trinidad and Tobago: US Warship Arrives In Port of Spain As Tensions with Venezuela Rise

  • Trinidad and Tobago’s (T&T) support for and cooperation with the United States (US) military operations in the Caribbean is straining relations with Caracas and raising the risk it could be drawn into a US–Venezuela conflict. After the USS Gravely docked in Port of Spain on October 26, 2025, for joint training with the TTDF, Venezuela’s foreign minister accused T&T of renouncing its sovereignty, “turning its territory into a US aircraft carrier,” and warned of potential “false flag” provocations.
  • As US–Venezuela tensions rise, speculation about regime change grows, and T&T–US military cooperation deepens, Fitch maintains that continued US–T&T cooperation will increase the risk of retaliatory measures by the Maduro regime against T&T in the event of a US–Venezuela war. The USS Gravely’s visit follows growing speculation about US-backed regime change and a recent US Embassy advisory warning of a “heightened state of alert” at US facilities in T&T.
  • Ongoing tensions in the region – and continued uncertainty on oil and gas development – raise above-ground risks for investors and headwinds to near-term investment. T&T’s relationship with both the US and Venezuela remains crucial, especially for its energy sector, which has been facing insufficient natural gas production to provide feedstock gas for its petrochemical and LNG industries.
  • In April 2025, the US revoked two key licences that permitted T&T to collaborate with Venezuela on offshore natural gas projects – specifically the Dragon and Cocuina–Manakin fields – to put pressure on Maduro. However, this decision was reversed on October 17, 2025, as the US reissued an updated OFAC licence for the Dragon field – a major win for T&T following its support for US operations in the Caribbean.
  • Despite the potential economic upside that would come from increased gas production from the Dragon gas field, the possibility of military confrontation near T&T creates strong headwinds for inbound investment. In response, Venezuela has moved to suspend all energy cooperation. Despite renewed US authorisation for the Dragon gas field development, Venezuela’s suspension of its energy cooperation agreement with T&T could derail the important project, with drilling now cancelled.
  • However, some upside exists. Should T&T–US cooperation help counter the persistent flow of drugs and weapons into the country, there is the possibility of reduced domestic crime, which could help improve Trinidad and Tobago’s business and investment climate, all things equal.

(Source: BMI, A Fitch Solutions Company)