Moody's Ratings Announces Completion of a Periodic Review of Jamaica’s Ratings

 

• On November 3, 2035, Moody's Ratings (Moody's) completed a periodic review of the ratings of Jamaica (B1/Positive) and other ratings that are associated with the sovereign. The review was conducted through a rating committee, in which Moody’s reassessed the appropriateness of Jamaica’s ratings, considering recent developments. The review, however, does not equate to a rating action.
• According to Moody’s, Jamaica’s credit profile is supported by the government's commitment to economic and fiscal reforms over the past decade. These reforms have contributed to greater macroeconomic stability and placed government debt on a firm downward trend. The sovereign has maintained large primary surpluses despite significant economic shocks, reflecting significant improvements in institutional capacity and policy effectiveness.
• On October 28, 2025, Jamaica was hit by Category 5 storm, Hurricane Melissa. The hurricane is the most powerful on record to hit Jamaica and has caused extensive disruption across the island. The immediate impact of Hurricane Melissa includes severe damage to infrastructure, widespread power outages, and significant disruptions in tourism, agriculture, and other key sectors. The full extent of the physical damage and fiscal implications remains uncertain, but as in past storms, Moody’s expects real GDP to contract and the debt burden to increase.
• The Jamaican government's (GOJ) policy response will be critical in mitigating the hurricane's impact on credit fundamentals. Moody’s expects the GOJ to leverage external support mechanisms, including quickly disbursing external funding. While Hurricane Melissa presents a severe but likely temporary blow to Jamaica's economy, the government's proactive disaster planning and access to external financial support can help mitigate the long-term impact on its credit profile, as well as its ongoing commitment to medium-term fiscal responsibility and debt reduction.
• Further, Jamaica's "ba3" economic strength reflects the economy's relatively small size and low income levels, very weak growth as well as limited economic diversification. Jamaica's "baa3" institutions and governance strength balance the government's track record of debt restructuring against its favourable governance indicators and improving policy framework and policy credibility.
• Finally, the positive outlook reflects Moody’s assessment that a continuation of the favourable fiscal trajectory will increase Jamaica's credit resilience. Given the improvement in the country's institutions and governance strength, a further decline in Jamaica's debt and interest burdens, though unlikely in the near term given the passage of Melissa, would support higher ratings. A less contractionary fiscal stance would also increase growth prospects for the economy.

(Source: Moody’s Investor Services)