Real GDP to Grow by 11.9% in Guyana for 2025

  • Guyana's real GDP growth is set to reach 11.9% in 2025, up from 9.1% previously due to the Yellowtail Project operations, which began in August 2025. This solid GDP growth, however, still marks a sharp slowdown from the 43.6% growth estimated for 2024, though still one of the fastest rates globally.
  • The Yellowtail project, which began several months ahead of schedule, is expected to provide a boost to export growth in the second half of 2025 (H2 2025). Furthermore, expectations are that fiscal policy will continue to support robust non-oil activity through higher wages, transfers and infrastructure spending, which will partially offset the drag from imports.
  • Real GDP growth is expected to accelerate again in 2026 and to average 17.3% annually between 2026 and 2028. This will be driven by higher exports, with the impulse from the Yellowtail project lifting growth in 2026 and then continuing this trend, as the Uaru and Whiptail projects are due to come online over 2026 and 2027. As a result, Fitch’s Oil & Gas team forecasts that net oil exports will double between 2025 and 2028. Meanwhile, the commissioning of the flagship gas-to-energy project in mid-2026 is expected to reduce fuel import needs and improve electricity reliability, thereby supporting non-oil sectors.
  • Additionally, domestic demand growth will remain robust, as the government's expansionary fiscal stance supports consumption and investment activity. Non-oil growth stood at 13.8% year over year (YoY) in H1 2025. This was supported by mining, agriculture, and, particularly, construction, which expanded by 29.9%, in line with higher public investment in infrastructure projects. Following its re-election in September 2025, the government has pledged a further uplift in spending on capital projects and social welfare in the 2026 budget, which will sustain robust momentum in domestic demand over the coming year.
  • That said, risks to the GDP growth forecasts are mixed and largely hinge on developments in the oil and gas sector. For instance, a steeper decline in oil prices could delay some oil and gas investments and lower government revenues, potentially weighing on exports and public spending. Further delays to the gas-to-energy project, which was originally slated for completion in 2025, would keep fuel imports high and reduce the contribution of net exports to headline GDP growth.
  • By contrast, higher global oil prices would provide more fiscal space to stimulate domestic demand and non-oil activity. The recent award of a licence to a TotalEnergies-led consortium to explore the S4 offshore block[1] poses upside risks to Guyana's longer-term hydrocarbons output forecasts and overall growth potential.

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1Guyana's Block S4 is a newly awarded shallow-water offshore license in the prolific Guyana-Suriname basin, operated by TotalEnergies (40%), partnered with QatarEnergy (35%) and Petronas (25%).

(Source: BMI, A Fitch Solutions Company)