The Bahamas’ National Debt Rises $300Mn

  • The Bahamas’ national debt soared by almost $300Mn to hit $12.385Bn at the end of September 2025, a signal that the Government likely incurred a significant deficit during the first quarter of its current fiscal year. The Central Bank of the Bahamas, in its quarterly review of the 2025 calendar third quarter, revealed that the direct debt accumulated by the central government increased by $300.3Mn or 2.6% during the period. On an annualised basis, it grew by $413.2Mn compared to end-September 2024.
  • The direct charge on the Government increased for the quarter ended September 2025 by $300.3Mn and on an annual basis, by $413.2Mn (3.5%) to $12.07Bn. A breakdown by currency revealed that Bahamian dollar debt represented 54.3% of the total, while foreign currency liabilities accounted for the remaining 45.7%, according to the Central Bank. The Government’s contingent liabilities declined by $3.9Mn (1.2%) over the review quarter and by $19.4Mn (5.8%) year-on-year to $315.9Mn.
  • Consequently, the national debt, inclusive of contingent liabilities, increased by $296.5Mn (2.5%) over the three-month period and by $393.8Mn (3.3%) on an annual basis to $12.385Bn as at the end of September 2025. As a ratio to gross domestic product (GDP), the direct charge decreased by an estimated 1.5 percentage points on a yearly basis to 73.4% at the end of September. Further, the national debt-to-GDP ratio fell to an estimated 75.3% from 77% in the third quarter of 2024.
  • Overall, after peaking in 2021, The Bahamas’ debt burden is set to slowly decline over the coming decade, on the back of improvements in its fiscal position. Total debt as a fraction of GDP is slated to decline from 81.5% in 2023 to 54.4% in 2032. The Bahamian government's fiscal position is estimated to improve over the next 10 years as a result of fiscal consolidation and increased value-added tax collections.
  • The fiscal deficit is expected to narrow from 1.6% of GDP in FY2023/24 to 1.4% in FY2033/34. Government revenues are anticipated to rise from 22.0% of GDP in FY2023/24 to 22.9% in FY2033/34. This will mainly reflect improving economic conditions and incomes, bolstering tax take. Expenditure growth will also remain moderate over the 10-year forecast period, as increasingly efficient state-owned enterprises (SOEs) require less government support.

(Sources: The Tribune and BMI, A Fitch Solutions Company)