S&P Revised TransJamaican Highway Ltd. Debt Rating Outlook to Stable

• Following damage assessments and the incorporation of the impact of Hurricane Melissa, which took time to assess, and following the economic and fiscal outlook in the government's budget update in December, S&P believes the likelihood of a rating upgrade for Jamaica within 12 months has become more remote.
• As a result, on December 18, 2025, it revised the outlook on Jamaica’s ratings to stable from positive. Following this, on December 22, 2025, TJH’s outlook was also revised downwards to stable from positive, reflecting that the sovereign continues to constrain TJH's credit profile. This is due to the project's significant exposure to regulatory risks and its inherent dependence on local economic conditions. The analysis incorporates stress testing, including scenarios involving a 100.0% currency depreciation, a 10.0% GDP contraction and a doubling of inflation to assess TJH's resilience.
• While a six-month cash-funded debt service reserve account provides a limited buffer, the assessment indicates that cash flows would likely be insufficient to fully cover debt payments in a sovereign default scenario. A sovereign stress could also restrict future tariff increases, potentially affecting the project's cash flow. Its 'a-' stand-alone credit profile (SACP) remains unchanged, reflecting TJH’s current operational strengths.
• The stable outlook on TJH aligns with the sovereign outlook, reflecting the view that TJH's performance is linked to Jamaica's broader economic stability. A gradual recovery in traffic volumes is anticipated following the disruption caused by Hurricane Melissa, driven by the reactivation of commercial activity and tourism throughout 2026.
• Beyond 2026, traffic growth is expected to track similar to Jamaica's GDP growth of approximately 2.0% per year, supporting the projection of a minimum DSCR consistently near 3.0x.

(Source: S&P Capital IQ)