China's Trade Ends 2025 With Record $1.2Tn Surplus Despite Trump Tariff Jolt

• A push by policymakers for Chinese firms to diversify beyond the world's top consumer market by shifting focus to Southeast Asia, Africa and Latin America paid dividends, cushioning the economy against United States (U.S.) tariffs and intensifying trade, technology and geopolitical frictions since President Donald Trump returned to the White House last year.
• As a result, China on Wednesday, January 14, 2026, reported a record trade surplus of nearly $1.189Tn in 2025, a 20% year on year increase, led by booming exports to non-U.S. markets as producers looked to build global scale to fend off sustained pressure from the Trump administration.
• The Asian powerhouse economy's monthly trade surpluses exceeded $100Bn seven times last year, partially underpinned by a weakened yuan, up from just once in 2024, underscoring that Trump's actions have barely dented China's broader trade with the wider world, even if he has curbed U.S.-bound shipments. Exports to the U.S. slumped 20% in dollar terms in 2025, while imports from the world's top economy were down 14.6%.
• Nevertheless, Chinese factories managed to make inroads in other markets, with exports to Africa jumping 25.8% and those to the ASEAN bloc of Southeast Asian nations up 13.4%. EU-bound shipments grew 8.4%.
• China's rare-earth exports in 2025 also surged to their highest level since at least 2014, even as Beijing began curbing shipments of several medium to heavy elements from April - a move analysts saw as an effort to showcase ⁠ its leverage over Washington while negotiators wrangled over soybean ⁠ purchases, a potential Boeing aircraft deal and the fate of TikTok's U.S. operations.
• The country’s surplus is still widening: For December alone, China’s surplus reached $114.14Bn, propelled by surging exports to the European Union, Africa, Latin America and Southeast Asia. It was the third-highest monthly surplus on record, trailing only January and June last year.
• Heading into 2026, the challenges for Beijing are aplenty, including deflecting concerns from an increasing number of global capitals about China's trade practices and overcapacity, as well as its overreliance on key Chinese products. One of the key questions facing policymakers is how long the $19Tn economy can continue to counteract a property slump and sluggish domestic demand by shipping ever cheaper goods to other markets.

(Sources: Reuters and NY Times)