Global Nuclear Arsenals in Focus, As New START Treaty Expires

• Russia is ready for the new reality of a world with no U.S.-Russian nuclear arms control limits after the New Strategic Arms Reduction (New START) Treaty expires this week, Moscow's point man for arms control said on Tuesday, February 3, 2026.
• Unless the two sides reach a last-minute understanding, they will be left without any constraints on their long-range strategic nuclear arsenals for the first time in more than half a century when New START expires on Thursday. February 5th.
• Further to this, BMI analysts see heightened risks that the New START Treaty between the US and Russia will fail to be replaced. The Treaty aims to limit the number of deployed strategic nuclear warheads to 1,550 for each side and limit the number of deployed delivery vehicles to 700. It is also the last major arms control agreement between the world’s two biggest nuclear powers.
• New START was signed by then-presidents Barack Obama and Dmitri Medvedev in April 2010 and took effect on February 5, 2011, for a period of 10 years. It was renewed by President Vladimir Putin and then President Joe Biden for a further five years in 2021, but does not carry the option of further renewal. In September 2025, Putin offered President Donald Trump a one-year extension, but Trump did not respond.
• Although President Donald Trump has adopted a relatively friendly stance towards Russia in his second term, he has been disappointed with Putin’s reluctance to end the war in Ukraine. It is thus unclear if Trump and Putin can work around the Ukraine war to reach a new agreement to replace the New START Treaty.
• A failure to effectively extend or replace the Treaty would raise the risk of a new nuclear build-up by the US, Russia and China (which is not a party to the treaty). Overall, the world appears poised to enter a 'new nuclear age' amid arguably the most unstable geopolitical period in several decades. With the New START Treaty's warhead caps and inspection and verification regimes no longer in place, both Washington and Moscow (and Beijing) would feel free to increase their nuclear arsenals to much higher levels. For example, the U.S. and Russia could simply add more non-deployed warheads onto existing missiles. Meanwhile, growing concerns among U.S. allies about Washington's commitment to their security could prompt them to at least consider developing nuclear arms.

(Sources: Reuters & BMI, A Fitch Solutions Company)