Oil Prices Tumble as Crucial U.S.-Iran Talks Begin

• Oil prices fell by about 2% early on Thursday, February 26, 2026, as the crucial U.S.-Iran talks began in Geneva in what analysts see as one last attempt to reach a nuclear deal through diplomacy.
• Prices were under pressure after the latest weekly data by the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) showed on Wednesday, February 26, 2026, that crude oil inventories in the United States surged by 16 million barrels during the week ending February 20, 2026. Yet, recent weeks have been distorted by weather-related production freeze-offs and the subsequent snap-back in output, which can swing inventories sharply from one report to the next.
• The U.S. continues to amass forces in the Middle Eastern region, with the U.S. military saying it is prepared to execute orders given by U.S. President Donald Trump. Commenting on the oil market implications, ING commodities strategists, Warren Patterson and Ewa Manthey, said early on Thursday, February 26, 2026, that “A constructive resolution would likely prompt the market to gradually unwind as much as a $10 per barrel risk premium, which we believe is currently priced in.”
• The upside risk to oil remains should talks break down, “but the market may hold off on a full reaction until the scale of potential US action against Iran becomes clearer,” the strategists noted. “If we are to see de-escalation between the US and Iran, it should allow weaker fundamentals to feed through to a lower flat price, particularly if the Organisation of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) resumes supply increases from April 2026, which we believe they will agree to this weekend.”

(Source: Yahoo Finance)