Higher LNG Prices Could Aid T&T

• Rising global LNG prices amid escalating Middle East tensions could boost export revenues for Trinidad and Tobago, according to Energy Minister Roodal Moonilal, though the country faces constraints in expanding natural gas production in the near term.
• As a net LNG exporter, Trinidad and Tobago is considered more resilient than LNG-importing economies during global supply disruptions, since it is not directly exposed to physical disruptions affecting Gulf producers such as Qatar or key shipping chokepoints like the Strait of Hormuz.
• However, the country remains linked to global LNG price movements through the restructured Atlantic LNG pricing formula, which references international benchmarks including Title Transfer Facility (TTF), National Balancing Point (NBP), Japan Korea Marker (JKM), and Brent crude, meaning geopolitical risk premiums in futures markets can raise realised export prices.
• While higher LNG prices create potential revenue upside, Trinidad and Tobago cannot quickly increase export volumes because upstream gas production constraints and existing contractual obligations limit immediate supply expansion, meaning most near-term gains would be price-driven rather than volume-driven.
• Energy analyst Anthony Paul noted that higher LNG prices may be partially offset by rising shipping and insurance costs, as global conflict disrupts trade flows and tightens the supply of LNG carriers, although Trinidad and Tobago’s routes avoid the Strait of Hormuz and may face smaller insurance premiums.
• Former prime minister Stuart Young warned the conflict could push up global oil and fuel prices, particularly as tankers avoid the Strait of Hormuz, through which roughly 20 million barrels of oil and refined products move daily, potentially driving inflation and higher living costs globally, including in Trinidad and Tobago.

(Source: Trinidad Express)