Hurricane Melissa Warps Labour Market

• Data released by the Statistical Institute of Jamaica (STATIN) shows the unemployment rate for January 2026 edged down to 3.6% from 3.7% in January 2025. The unemployment rate fell not because more people found jobs, but largely because fewer people were counted as part of the labour force.
• Jamaica’s labour force declined by 2.24% to 1,441,000. This decline corresponded with a 4.8% increase in the number of persons outside the labour force to 714,800 individuals. This rise was evenly distributed across genders, with 16,900 more males and 16,100 more females classified as outside the labour force, reinforcing the trend of declining participation. Consequently, the labour force participation rate weakened to 66.8%, down from 68.4% in January 2025, signalling reduced engagement in economic activity.
• The number of persons employed also declined by 2.1% to 1,389,400. Employment among males declined by 2.0% to 747,700, while the number of employed females fell by 2.2% to 641,800. Youth employment also declined by 11.1% to 149,500. Ultimately, the marginally faster decline in the labour force relative to employed people translated to a faster decline in the number of unemployed persons (-5.5%).
• With the number of unemployed persons declining by 5.5%, a faster rate than the 2.4% decline in the labour force, the unemployment rate consequently decreased.
• Nevertheless, the decline may be masking emerging labour market pressures, particularly in the aftermath of Hurricane Melissa. The hurricane’s impact, especially across the western parishes of Jamaica, disrupted key sectors such as tourism, agriculture, and small business activity, which likely contributed to job losses and reduced labour force participation. The lower unemployment rate appears to reflect not only fewer persons actively seeking work, but also hurricane-related displacement and temporary withdrawal from the labour market, rather than sustained, broad-based job creation.

(Sources: STATIN & NCBCM Research)