Gasoline import costs in Guyana increased by 38.5% amid US–Iran conflict

• Gasoline import costs in Guyana surged by 38.5% between February 22 and March 17, 2026, according to the Guyana Energy Agency (GEA).
• The increase reflects the country’s high exposure to global refined fuel markets despite its status as a crude oil producer. Benchmarks like Brent are above US$100 per barrel, owing to the US–Iran conflict, causing higher crude prices, tighter global inventories, and rising shipping costs.
• Guyana’s inability to refine crude domestically means it remains fully dependent on imported gasoline, with domestic fuel prices closely tracking international benchmarks. It also limits the extent to which the country can insulate its economy from global price volatility.
• With projections suggesting crude prices could remain above ~US$95 per barrel and potentially spike higher under escalation scenarios, the country faces continued upward pressure on fuel import costs and inflation.
• From a sovereign perspective, higher import costs could widen the current account deficit (outside of oil exports) and increase fiscal pressures, particularly as the government absorbs part of the shock through policy measures.
• The government has maintained a 0% excise tax on fuel since 2022. It was reaffirmed in the 2026 Budget, providing short-term relief to consumers. However, it represents a foregone revenue stream, which may constrain fiscal flexibility if elevated prices persist.
• While rising crude prices support Guyana’s oil export revenues, the mismatch between crude exports and refined product imports underscores a structural gap in the energy value chain. This leaves the sovereign partially exposed to both positive (export windfall) and negative (import cost inflation) oil price effects.
• Overall, the development presents a mixed credit impact: positive via stronger oil revenues, but offset by imported inflation, fiscal trade-offs, and external vulnerability to global energy market disruptions.

(Source: OIL Now)