Aruba Ratings Raised To A- From BBB+ On Improved Debt Position; Outlook Stable

  • On April 8, 2026, S&P Global Ratings (S&P) raised its long-term foreign and local currency sovereign credit ratings on Aruba to 'A-' from 'BBB+' and affirmed its 'A-2' short-term rating. The transfer and convertibility assessment was revised to A- from BBB+. The outlook is stable.
  • The stable outlook reflects S&P’s expectation that Aruba’s fiscal discipline will underpin a continued decrease in its net debt and interest burden amid a cooperative relationship with the Netherlands1. Expectations that the tourism-concentrated economy will continue to grow over the next few years, supporting fiscal and external balances, also factored into the rating outlook.
  • Aruba's growing economy and fiscal surpluses have supported continued debt repayments that, along with strong, growing public sector assets, improved the government’s fiscal profile and external position. The economy will continue to be dominated by the tourism sector, but capacity constraints will temper growth. S&P expects tourism-driven growth of 1.9% in 2026, down from 3.9% in 2025.
  • Ongoing growth will lead to fiscal surpluses and will continue to support debt reduction. Of note, in 2025, Aruba posted a surplus of 3.6% of GDP and repaid debt of 140 million Aruban florins. The agency believes the government will continue to control its spending such that the average change in net general government debt over the next four years will be close to negative 2.2% of GDP, indicating debt will decrease over time.
  • The country’s external position has improved in tandem with its economic and fiscal recovery since the pandemic. Aruba’s growing external pension assets and reduced external debt have contributed to a stronger narrow net external debt position, which will average 24% of current account payments. At the same time, tourism sector receipts will likely lead to ongoing current account surpluses of about 2.6% of GDP over the forecast horizon. These dynamics will contribute to gross external financing needs remaining above 100% of current account receipts and usable reserves during the forecast horizon.
  • That said, the sovereign is highly dependent on tourism, and this, together with its small size and low-lying elevation, makes its economy and debt vulnerable to external shocks, which was evident during the pandemic when debt rose substantially.
  • Notwithstanding, these risks are mitigated by Aruba’s access to rapid funding provided by the Netherlands. This highlights the benefits it receives from its status as a member of the Kingdom of the Netherlands, bolstering its political and institutional stability, policy predictability, and judicial certainty.

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1Owing to its status as a member of the Kingdom of the Netherlands

(Source: S&P Global Ratings)