CPI Increase in March

  • Despite lower prices for some agricultural produce as the sector continues to rebound, consumer prices rose in March, reflecting the impact of higher global energy prices on electricity rates and petrol prices paid by local consumers. The All-Jamaica Consumer Price Index (CPI)in March 2026 increased by 0.3%, according to the latest data from the Statistical Institute of Jamaica (STATIN).
  • This was mainly influenced by a 2.3% rise in the index for the ‘Housing, Water, Electricity, Gas and Other Fuels’ division. Higher electricity rates led to a 5.1% increase in the group ‘Electricity, Gas and Other Fuels’, while the ‘Transport’ division recorded a 0.6% increase, mainly due to higher petrol prices. The higher petrol prices stem from the War on Iran, which has caused significant spikes in oil and natural gas prices.
  • The overall increase in the CPI was, however, tempered by a 0.6% decline in the index for the ‘Food and Non-Alcoholic Beverages’ division. This fall primarily resulted from a 4.9% decline in the index for the class ‘Vegetables, tubers, plantains, cooking bananas, and pulses’ due to lower prices for some agricultural produce, such as tomato, carrot, cabbage, Irish potato and pumpkin.
  • Meanwhile, the point-to-point inflation rate as at March 2026 was 4.3%, which is higher than the 3.9% seen for February 2026.
  • Since the outbreak of the US-Iran conflict in March, the global energy market outlook has shifted abruptly, with sharp rises in oil and natural gas prices, the key inputs in local electricity and petrol production. Expectations of surplus conditions are now replaced by what is widely regarded as one of the most significant supply shocks in recent history.
  • Under existing fuel pricing mechanisms, local weekly pricing adjustments are capped at $4.50, which means only a fraction of the increase in petrol prices was passed on to consumers initially. However, the Minister of Energy, Transport and Telecommunications, Daryl Vaz, has announced the implementation of a tiered pricing mechanism designed to align domestic fuel prices more closely with global movements. This new system is expected to allow for larger upward adjustments.
  • Notably, more than 80 energy facilities have been attacked since the U.S. and Israel launched the war on Iran. With more than a third of those severely damaged, it could take as long as two years to repair facilities and restore oil and gas production to pre-war levels.
  • As a result, fuel prices at the pump are likely to rise and stay elevated, placing upward pressure on the Transport division as well as the ‘Housing, Water, Electricity, Gas and Other Fuels’ category, which could in turn contribute to further increases in the CPI in the near term.

(Source: STATIN, NCBCM research & CNBC)