T&T’s Central Bank Economic Survey Shows Growth Slowed as Non-energy Sector Weakens

• According to the Central Bank's Annual Economic Survey published yesterday, the latest official data from the Central Statistical Office (CSO) showed that real GDP for Trinidad & Tobago increased by 0.2% over the first nine months of 2025. This reflected a 2.2% expansion in the energy sector that offset a 0.6% decline in non-energy sector production. The Central Bank stated that "Energy sector buoyancy largely reflected a base effect, given maintenance activity by key upstream producers in the first half of 2024. Added impetus to growth accrued from the start-up of production at two new natural gas fields in the second quarter of 2025."
• Unemployment remained relatively low, averaging 4.5% over the first three quarters of 2025, signalling stabilised labour market conditions when compared with the unemployment rate of 4.8% during the same period of 2024. An uptick occurred in the number of persons with jobs alongside a more than proportionate decline in the number of persons without jobs. However, the labour force fell while the participation rate remained relatively unchanged at 54.7%. Job gains were notably observed in the Wholesale and Retail Trade, Restaurants and Hotels, and Manufacturing sectors.
• Price pressures were generally contained in 2025 as headline inflation remained low, increasing to 1% from 0.5% in 2024. This was underpinned by an increase in both food (3% in 2025 compared to 1.5% in 2024) and core inflation (0.5% in 2025 compared to 0.2% in 2024).
• Higher energy receipts outpaced the increase in government spending in the fiscal year ended September 2025, resulting in a significantly smaller overall deficit than budgeted. The preliminary outturn from the Ministry of Finance shows that the Central Government accounts recorded an overall deficit of $8.1Bn in FY2024/25. This compares with a fiscal deficit of $9.1Bn recorded in the previous fiscal year (FY2023/24) and the mid-year revised budget deficit of $9.7Bn for FY2024/25. Central Government revenue climbed to $49.1Bn driven mainly by stronger energy receipts, while expenditure increased moderately to $57.2Bn owing to higher outlays in transfers and subsidies and goods and services.
• Domestic and external borrowings, along with withdrawals from the Heritage and Stabilisation Fund (HSF) were used to finance the fiscal deficit. At the end of September 2025, adjusted General Government debt outstanding (which excludes debt issued for sterilisation purposes) reached $146.9Bn, $6.2Bn more than in September 2024.
• The Central Bank allowed treasury bills and notes to mature in the financial system and kept the repo rate unchanged at 3.5% during 2025 to support favourable funding conditions to aid domestic economic activity. Continued Government borrowing activity led to tighter market liquidity conditions, which the Bank addressed by allowing open market operation treasury securities to mature to keep ample liquidity in the banking system. After declining to $3.5Bn in October 2025, commercial banks' excess reserves at the Central Bank increased to $4.2Bn by end-December 2025. Trinidad and Tobago's external accounts recorded a deficit of US$908.2Mn in the first nine months of 2025.

(Source: Trinidad Express)