Jamaica’s Trade Deficit Widens to US$5.87Bn in 2025 Amid Broad Export Contractions and Rising Import Demand

  • Jamaica’s trade deficit widened in 2025 by US$490.5Mn to -US$5,871.5Mn, as a broad-based contraction in domestic export sectors collided with rising domestic demand for imported raw materials and consumer goods. This dynamic pushed the export-to-import coverage ratio down to 22.0% (from 26.2% in 2024), meaning Jamaica earned only US$0.22 for every US$1.00 spent on imports.
  • The total value of imports for January to December 2025 increased by 3.2% to US$7.52Bn. This growth was largely driven by a 10.5% increase in Raw Materials/Intermediate Goods to US$2.24Bn, heavily fueled by a 13.5% rise in industrial supplies like inorganic chemicals and a 10.2% rise in construction materials like iron and steel. Consumer Goods Imports also rose 6.2% to US$2,112.8Mn, primarily due to a 9.6% jump in food for household consumption. Conversely, spending on Fuels and Lubricants provided some offset, declining by 7.5% to US$1,744.0Mn.
  • Meanwhile, for the full calendar year, total exports contracted by 13.4% to US$1.65Bn due to a 20.4% fall in the value of Crude Material (ext. fuels). Domestic exports declined by 12.4%, dragged down by underperformance across all major producing industries. Mining and Quarrying earnings fell 21.1%, driven by a 25.8% drop in Alumina to US$534.5Mn, despite Bauxite increasing 27.3%. Agriculture earnings dropped 19.1% due to reduced exports of yams and other root crops, while Manufacturing declined 4.5%, largely due to Refined Petroleum Products (-10.1%), though Food, Beverages, and Tobacco saw a slight 1.7% uptick.
  • Jamaica’s top five trading partners in 2025 were the United States, China, Brazil, Japan and Trinidad and Tobago. Combined imports from these countries totalled approximately US$4.7Bn, representing a 5.1% increase compared with 2024.
  • On the export side, Jamaica’s main markets were the United States, Russian Federation, Iceland, Canada and the Netherlands. Total earnings from these countries fell by 20.0% to US$1,149Mn.
  • In terms of key trading blocs, the value of imports under USMCA1 and the European Union (EU) declined to US$3,123.1Mn and US$5945Mn, respectively. On the other hand, imports from CARICOM increased by 14.7%, driven by mineral fuels and food. Similarly, total exports to the USMCA and EU declined by 11.1% and 36.7%, respectively. The falloff in the EU was driven by a 45.3% decline in crude material exports to the EU.
  • Ultimately, a widening trade deficit means more US dollars are leaving the country to pay for imports than are coming in through merchandise exports. While remittances and tourism help plug this gap, a worsening merchandise deficit puts depreciatory pressure on the Jamaican Dollar (JMD). For the fiscal outlook, a weaker JMD can increase the local currency cost of servicing Jamaica’s US-dollar-denominated sovereign debt.

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1The United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA) is a free trade agreement between the three North American nations. It officially went into effect on July 1, 2020, replacing the 26-year-old North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA).

(Source: STATIN & NCBCM Research)