Antigua and Barbuda Must Tackle Arrears, Says IMF

  • The Executive Board of the International Monetary Fund (IMF) recently (May 4, 2026) concluded the Article IV consultation with Antigua and Barbuda (A&B). The authorities warned that A&B must tackle arrears despite falling debt.
  • Antigua and Barbuda’s economic expansion continues. Real GDP grew by an estimated 3% in 2025, supported by a pick-up in construction despite slowing tourism activity. Employment has gradually recovered to pre-pandemic levels, and inflation moderated from over 6% (year-average) in 2024 to 1.4% in 2025.
  • Additionally, public debt as a share of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) declined from 101% of GDP in 2020 to an estimated 68% in 2025, aided by an improved fiscal position. However, arrears to the Paris Club1 creditors and domestic suppliers are significant, and gross financing needs are elevated. The IMF noted that persistent arrears and elevated gross financing needs are constraining access to longer‑term financing and undermining debt sustainability. A&B is therefore being urged to develop and implement a credible and comprehensive strategy for addressing all arrears, broadening financing options, and making space for resilience-building investments. The IMF also noted the need to continue strengthening cash and debt management to prevent future arrears.
  • That said, the fiscal position strengthened in 2024–25, reflecting both improved tax collection and one-off factors. The 2025 primary balance is estimated at nearly 5% of GDP, underpinned by higher tax revenues, stronger inflows under the Citizenship-by-Investment Program (CIP), restraint in current spending, and a modest increase in capital spending. However, the CIP has recently come under increased international scrutiny, particularly from the United States (U.S), over concerns about vetting standards and the granting of citizenship without long-term residency requirements. THE IMF noted that continued efforts to strengthen this framework remain important.
  • Looking ahead, steady economic expansion is projected to continue, but risks are tilted to the downside amid heightened global uncertainty. Downside risks stem externally from commodity price volatility and a slowdown in major trading partners and, domestically, from capacity constraints weighing on growth. Upside potential could materialise from stronger tourism demand, improved connectivity, and productivity-enhancing reforms.

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1The Paris Club is an informal group of major creditor nations, including countries such as France, the United States, the United Kingdom, and Japan, that work together to help countries manage and restructure sovereign debt.

(Sources: IMF & NCBCM Research)